Revista de Economia Política

Publications
Linear correlations between continuous variables and khi square tests between discrete variables, dimensions of the consensus and objectives; 
The objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we show how, and to what extent, Latin American and Caribbean countries applied the precepts of the second Washington consensus, i.e. a consensus which stresses the capital account liberalization. Secondly, we highlight the effects of this set of reforms on their economies. Thus, we show that countries having most scrupulously followed these recommendations did not experience better economic results. On the contrary, their situation as regards inequality and debt is getting worse than others.
 
Linear correlations between continuous variables and khi square tests between discrete variables, dimensions of the consensus and objectives; 
The objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we show how, and to what extent, Latin American and Caribbean countries applied the precepts of the second Washington consensus, i.e. a consensus which stresses the capital account liberalization. Secondly, we highlight the effects of this set of reforms on their economies. Thus, we show that countries having most scrupulously followed these recommendations did not experience better economicresults. On the contrary, their situation as regards inequality and debt is getting worse than others.
 
The postwar liberal trading framework has become hopelessly distorted during the past two decades by the hegemony of the U.S. dollar, high interest rates, debt deflation, and capital flight; the asymmetries of a world so structured are proving intolerable. The economist John Maynard Keynes recognized this issue with characteristic clarity in the design of the Bretton Woods institutions--the World Bank and International Monetary Fund--in 1944. Keynes favored free markets and liberal trading arrangements insofar as they could be made to work, but he was also well aware that free markets are inherently unstable and prone to collapse. Keynes also understood that the characteristic structure of unregulated international finance placed bankers and creditors in the dominant position, and so would inevitably force adjustment by debtors. But what was locally rational in a financial transaction would prove disastrous for the system as a whole. As individual debtors contracted their economies in order to meet their interest payments, their demand for imports would diminish, and so would the exports of their suppliers. The entire economic system would contract, and in the end no one would be further forward in their ability to pay their debts. THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF) has offered Brazil a $30 billion loan, most of it reserved for next year, on condition that the country continue to run a large primary surplus in the government budget. In this way the IMF maintains a strong arm over Brazil's next government, almost surely to be drawn from the left. Any significant move toward fiscal expansion would trigger revocation of the promised loan, followed by capital market chaos. Or so one is led to suppose. Right now, Brazil is in the grip of recession. With declining demand for imports, the country has a surplus in its trade account (outflows less
 
It is developed a macrodynamic model in the post-keynesian tradition of political economy of the productive capital accumulation and income distribution to analyze some of the impacts of the (flow of) foreign direct investment and the (stock of) foreign productive capital on capital accumulation, economic growth and functional income distribution in a stylized economy. Alongside a usual demand effect, the impacts of such an internationalization of local capital through labor productivity and market concentration are taken into account as well.
 
Transaction Costs Theory has been considered the 'new orthodoxy' in the theory of the firm, being this the very same reason for wide criticism by different schools of economic thought. However, there seems to be signs of complementarity between TCT and evolutionary approaches to the firm. Some alleged interfaces are discussed here in order to suggest new directions for a pluralistic research agenda on the theory of the firm.
 
After sixty years, the Breton Woods Agreement continuous to be a reference for the debates concerning institutional organization of the international monetary system. This paper compares some features of the arrangements that have emerged in that context with the recent wave of institutional reforms in the international financial architecture. We explore some arguments suggesting that, in an instable financial environment, is possible to envisage a strong rationality in strategies for emerging economies associated with a more active capital flows and exchange rate management. Apparently, those strategies are not dissimilar to the ones today's advanced countries had used in Bretton Woods Era.
 
RESUMO O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar um modelo dinâmico não-linear de acumulação de capital e dívida externa para avaliar a recente tese defendida por Bresser e Nakano de que uma dívida externa excessiva em países emergentes - que é resultado de grandes déficits em conta corrente - pode produzir não apenas um aumento da fragilidade externa dessas economias, mas também uma estagnação econômica, isto é, uma redução permanente nas taxas de crescimento do produto potencial. Para isso, desenvolveremos um modelo dinâmico no qual (i) um aumento na relação dívida externa/PIB produzirá um aumento menos que proporcional na taxa de investimento, uma vez que uma fração do financiamento externo será usada para a aquisição de ativos não reprodutíveis, como ações e terrenos; (ii) o prêmio de risco país é endógeno, sendo proporcional à dívida externa como fração do PIB. Nesse arcabouço teórico, poderemos mostrar a existência de dois equilíbrios de longo prazo: um equilíbrio com baixa dívida externa e alto grau de utilização de capacidade, e outro equilíbrio com alta dívida externa e baixo grau de utilização de capacidade. Além disso, mostraremos também que - para um certo conjunto de valores de parâmetros - o equilíbrio com alta dívida externa é estável e na vizinhança dessa posição o grau de utilização da capacidade e a relação da dívida externa em relação ao PIB mostrarão uma trajetória temporal caracterizado por flutuações amortecidas.
 
This article explores why Smith's work is a turning point in the history of economic thought. The constitution of an economic discourse and the delimitation of the economy sphere are attributed to: i) the specific nature of Smith's moral philosophy; ii) his way of conceiving economic action as composing an ontological domain structured upon two axis: labor and exchange. The text indicates the connections between Smith's moral philosophy and his economic thought, suggesting that the conventional interpretations underestimate their variety and complexity.
 
Today I would I like to discuss improvements in our understanding of economic development.In particular,Iwould like to use this opportunity to discuss the emergence of what is sometimes called the “Post-Washington Consensus.” My remarks elaborate on two themes. The first is that we have come to a better understanding of what makes markets work well.TheWashington Consensus held that good economic performance required liberalized trade, macroeconomic stability, and getting prices right. 1 Once the government handled these issues – essentially, once the government “got out of the way ” – private markets would produce efficient allocations and growth. To be sure, all of these are important if markets are to work. It is very difficult for investors to make good decisions when inflation is running at 100 percent. But the policies advanced by the Washington Consensus are hardly complete – and they are sometimes misguided. Making markets work requires more than just low inflation. It requires sound financial regulation, competition police and policies to facilitate the transfer of technology, and transparency, to name some fundamental issues that the consensus neglects. At the same time that we have improved our understanding of the instruments to promote well-functioning markets, we have broadened the objectives of development to include other goals like sustainable development, egalitarian development, and democratic development. An important part of development today is seeking complementary strategies that advance these goals simultaneously.In our search for these policies, however, we should not ignore the inevitable tradeoffs. This is the second theme of my remarks. Some Lessons of the East Asian Financial Crisis Before discussing my two themes, I would like to address at the outset one issue that is on many people’s minds: the implications of the East Asian crisis for our thinking about development. The observation of the successful, some even say miraculous, East Asian development was one of the motivations for moving
 
This note discusses the concept of 'inflation adjusted nominal deficit' proposed by Robert Barro in light of a stock-flow consistent real deficit. It is argued that the calculation proposed by the author violates the principle of stock-flow consistency and leads one to the erroneous interpretation that a rise in the rate of inflation decreases the government deficit in nominal terms.
 
RESUMO O objetivo deste artigo é entender as condições específicas de entrada em tecnologia no sistema agroalimentar e como essas condições facilitaram a liderança de mercado nesse sistema pelos países recém-industrializados com recursos naturais. A análise está focada no caso brasileiro.
 
RESUMO Este artigo analisa o impacto da subcontratação no mercado de trabalho e a ineficiência que pode resultar dele. A subcontratação está parcialmente associada ao aumento no emprego de serviços e à diminuição no emprego na indústria no início dos anos 90. Assim, a subcontratação pode diminuir a qualidade do emprego e os incentivos à acumulação de capital humano, uma vez que os serviços tendem a valorizar menos o capital humano do que a manufatura e têm relações de trabalho mais informais e instáveis. Esse cenário pode se deteriorar se as empresas subcontratadas enfrentarem restrições de crédito. Devido à existência de externalidades, o investimento em capital humano seria sub-ótimo, mesmo que as empresas contratadas estivessem dispostas a investir nas empresas subcontratadas.
 
To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.
 
International liquidity and reflex cycle: some observations to Latin America. The international financial instability of the 1990 has been analysed in several occasions on Minskyan perspectives. The paper is based on this theoretical approach and intends to demonstrate that the financial fragility hypothesis is very useful to the analysis of the cycle in peripheral economies, which real performance is associated to the availability of international liquidity. The analysis is based on three Latin American countries: Brazil, Argentina and Mexico.
 
The objective of this paper is to analyze the main theoretical arguments for the analysis of the conduction of monetary policy on the fiscal side. Besides this, an analysis is made of the possible effects on the fiscal balance from the conduction of the monetary policy in the search for price stability after the Real Plan and due to an increase in the central bank independence (CBI) in the Brazilian case. The findings denote that the strategy for the conduction of the adopted monetary policy and the increase in the degree of CBI did not contribute to an improvement in the fiscal balance.
 
RESUMO Este artigo argumenta que os modelos ortodoxos de alta inflação para países em desenvolvimento, baseados no modelo seminal de hiperinflação de Cagan, apresentam alguns pontos fracos ao ignorar a complexidade trazida à economia pela alta inflação, além de assumir que os agentes econômicos podem permanecer nessa situação, porque eles são dotados de uma “racionalidade ilimitada” para tomar suas decisões. O artigo também argumenta que, para entender esse processo e sugerir políticas adequadas, é necessário reconhecer que um processo desinflacionário requer políticas graduais que permitam aos agentes econômicos ajustar seu comportamento às novas circunstâncias provocadas por essas políticas. A hipótese a ser feita sobre esse comportamento é a caracterizada por uma “racionalidade limitada”.
 
NCM governance principles (stabilization = 'natural trend' oriented rules)
The paper presents both the New Consensus and Keynesian equilibrium within the usual four competitive macro-markets structure. It gives theoretical explanations of the pernicious effects that the NCM governance, which has been designed for ergodic stationary regimes, brings about in Keynesian non-ergodic regimes. It put forward Keynesian principles of governance which include monetary, budgetary and fiscal instruments, and suggest new directions for the positive and normative analysis of macro-policies.
 
The aim of this paper is to carry out an empirical analysis about the relation between Liberalization of Capital Account and Economic Growth having as study object the experience of 16 countries of Latin America with annual data for the period 1986-2000. As econometrical methodology, a dynamic model of data in panel was used in agreement with original proposal from Arellano and Bond (1991). The econometrical calculations do not corroborate the hypothesis of that the liberalization of the Capital Account would stimulate the economic growth. The results suggest an adverse effect of the liberalization of the Capital Account on the real growth gross domestic product per capita of the countries.
 
On this paper, we propose a change in the primary surplus´ target by the government current account saving. This concept excludes public investment from primary surplus. However, of this change has raised a question about if government current account saving represents a sustainable fiscal policy. Therefore, this paper has analysed if the change in the primary surplus` target by the government current account saving implies a meaning modification on the debt-to-GDP ratio path. The empirical analysis, based on Brazilian monthly data for the period 1999-2005, suggests that the change in fiscal target has not meant a lack of sustainability.
 
This paper aims at discussing critically Pérsio Arida’s proposal of adopting currency convertibility in Brazil. Arida (2003a, 2003b, 2004) points out that currency convertibility would make for lower interest rates in Brazil, as well as for lower interest rates for the Brazilian external bonds. Besides, currency convertibility would stabilize capital flows, as well as exchange rate volatility in Brazil. We argue in this paper that this proposal does not lead necessarily either to less exchange rate volatility, or to lower interest rates. Besides, we close the paper by presenting some alternatives to capital controls in Brazil.
 
We aim at obtaining a simple econometric model that forecasts the dispersion of the bids made by financial institutions at the central bank weekly auctions of short term securities in Brazil. Under competitive conditions (e.g., no coalition between a few financial institutions) we assume that the bid's dispersion is associated with the volatility of the daily interest rate futures prices and the daily interest rates. Based on that assumption, our model succeeds in separating the two auctions with extremely high volatility. In one of them, the high dispersion could be predicted using the other interest rate markets' data; in the other the dispersion fell outside the confidence interval for the predicted dispersion. This can be used as empirical evidence of an attempt to corner the market that has indeed ocurred at that date.
 
This paper investigates the role that economic variables play in the determination of happiness, using reported happiness as a proxy to individual well-being. We use microdata extracted from the World Values Survey for five countries, emphasizing the Brazilian case. Our findings suggest that there is a positive and significant correlation between happiness and income. Unemployment seems to have an even higher impact, arising as a large source of unhappiness. Other variables, such as age, gender, education and marital status are controlled for. In most cases, happiness appears to be positively correlated to being married. Moreover, happiness is apparently U-shaped in age (minimizing at 50's).
 
RESUMO O mercado de trabalho está em permanente movimento. Para mensurar e qualificar o grau de mobilidade do mercado de trabalho, estatísticas de fluxo como rotatividade de trabalhadores e realocação de emprego são calculadas. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar para o Brasil medidas inéditas de fluxos de postos de trabalho. A realocação de postos de trabalho é medida pelas trocas de estoques de tipos de oportunidades de empregos, qualificada pela ocupação associada ao emprego, em cada estabelecimento. A mensuração dos fluxos permite também quantificar a contribuição de vários tipos de fatores que influenciam a rotatividade, como o matching de trabalhadores e empresas, progresso técnico e mudança tecnológica e, por fim, demanda por trabalho. Os resultados sugerem para o Brasil que, baseado em dados do setor formal de 1996 a 2001, a mudança tecnológica teve um efeito relativamente pequeno na rotatividade de trabalhadores, respondendo por cerca de 12% da rotatividade, enquanto que a demanda por trabalho respondeu por mais de 25%. ABSTRACT The labor market is in constant flux. In order to measure and qualify mobility in labor market, it is usual to estimate labor market flow statistics, such as worker reallocation and job reallocation. The goal of this paper is to present previously unknown within plant job reallocation statistics. The within plant job reallocation is measured as changes in the occupational mix of the plant. The within plant job reallocation allows a profitable worker turnover decomposition in matching, technological change and labor demand factors. Our results suggest that technological change responded for a limited share of worker turnover, using formal labor market data for Brazil, from 1996 to 2001. More than a quarter of worker turnover can be attributed to labor demand shifts and more than 50% of worker turnover is due to matching.
 
A proposta dos autores � analisar o padr�o de crescimento econ�mico do Brasil no per�odo p�s-liberaliza��o, com destaque para o relacionamento entre finan�as e acumula��o de capital fixo produtivo. Entre os resultados encontrados, ressalta-se a exist�ncia do regime denominado finance-led growth - no per�odo 2004-2008, sob condi��es estruturais e conjunturais de um processo de financeiriza��o (financialization) muito espec�fico. Inicia-se com um survey da literatura internacional sobre o tema. O objetivo � revelar a import�ncia deste conceito para a compreens�o dos problemas da economia brasileira atual. Em seguida, apresenta-se o primado hist�rico acerca das transforma��es estruturais que permitiram o desenvolvimento dos regimes financeiros. O estudo � conclu�do com a an�lise emp�rica para o caso brasileiro, com base em indicadores macroecon�micos selecionados. This paper analyzes the Brazilian growth pattern during the post-liberalization period, emphasizing the structural links between finance and productive capital accumulation. The results indicate a finance-led growth regime in the period 2004-2008, under a very specific financialization process. The first part is a survey of the international literature, which defines the financialization concept and its relevance for understanding Brazilian economic problems. The next part provides a historical overview on the structural changes that made possible the development of financial-led regimes. The paper also applies an empirical analysis of some selected Brazilian macroeconomic indicators. I. The versions in English of the abstracts of this series have not been edited by Ipea?s editorial department. As vers�es em l�ngua inglesa das sinopses (abstracts) desta cole��o n�o s�o objeto de revis�o pelo Editorial do Ipea.
 
Este artigo analisa a rela��o entre infra-estrutura e produtividade total dos fatores (PTF) no Brasil entre 1950 e 2000. O estoque de capital p�blico � utilizado como proxy para o capital de infra-estrutura. A hip�tese a ser testada � a de que um aumento no estoque de infra-estrutura de maneira mais acentuada que uma eleva��o no estoque de capital privado tem um efeito positivo sobre a produtividade no longo prazo. Para tanto, utilizou-se o procedimento de Johansen com o objetivo de testar a cointegra��o entre a PTF e a raz�o capital p�blico/privado. De fato, comprovou-se que essa rela��o de complementaridade (capital p�blico-privado) ajuda a explicar a trajet�ria da PTF de 1950 a 2000. Os resultados se mostraram robustos a diferentes medidas de produtividade e da propor��o capital p�blico/privado. Al�m disso, a an�lise de curto (m�dio) prazo indicou que choques nesta propor��o t�m um impacto significativo sobre a PTF, mas o contr�rio n�o ocorre. Assim, a diminui��o dos investimentos em infra-estrutura pode ser uma poss�vel explica��o para a queda da PTF verificada nos anos 70 e 80.
 
A literatura econômica relativa à informalidade no mercado de trabalho brasileiroencontra-se pouco organizada e apresenta um elevado grau de dispersão. Assim, oobjetivo deste artigo é organizar e discutir de forma sistemática os principais trabalhosda literatura nacional utilizando, sempre que possível, a literatura internacional comoum contraponto aos resultados existentes para o caso brasileiro. Em particular, sãoenfatizadas as questões relativas aos diferenciais de salários entre trabalhadores formaise informais, à segmentação no mercado de trabalho e aos efeitos das instituições sobreo setor informal.
 
Distribution of Projects Contemplated by Law 5261/69, by Sector: 1970-1975 
Sectors Classification in Minas Gerais: 1953  
Sectoral Share in Gross Output (%) 
Output Multipliers 
Cross-Structure " Landscape " for First Order Multiplier Product Matrix:  
This paper examines the post-War industrialization process in the Brazilian Sta- te of Minas Gerais, focusing on one of its desirable outcomes, namely the capacity to generate growth through the impact of strong input-output linkages. This pro- cess is placed into historical perspective considering the ideas that permeate the economic development debate throughout the period of analysis. Changes in the regional economic structure are assessed through the use of three input-output tables for the years of 1953, 1980 and 1995. By adopting the fields of influence methodology as the analytical core, it is shown that the efforts towards the cre- ation of a more integrated regional economy have generated stronger influence of the targeted sectors (metal products, transportation equipment, chemical, and services). However, structural changes also contributed to strengthen leakage in the system originated in traditional economic activities. Key-words: input-output; development policies; structural analysis; Minas Ge- rais economy. JEL classification: C67, R58, O18
 
Current Account Balance as a Percent of GDP, 1980-2008 
The term BRIC was first coined by Goldman Sachs and refers to the fast-growing developing economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China--a class of middle-income emerging market economies of relatively large size that are capable of self-sustained expansion. Their combined economies could exceed the combined economies of today's richest countries by 2050. However, there are concerns about how the current financial crisis will affect the BRICs, and Goldman has questioned whether Brazil should remain within this group. Senior Scholar Jan Kregel reviews the implications of the global crisis for developing countries, based on the factors driving global trade. He concludes that there is unlikely to be a return to the extremely positive conditions underlying the recent sharp increase in growth and external accounts. The key for developing countries is to transform from export-led to domestic demand-led growth, says Kregel. From this viewpoint, Brazil seems much better placed than the other BRIC countries.
 
One possible vicious circle in a convalescent economy
The danger of spending cuts in a convalescent economy
One possible virtuous circle in a depressed economy
Contrasting with the 1929 great crisis, authorities intervened forcefully in 2008 to stop the disintegration of the financial system. Governments and central banks then sought to revise the prudential regulation in depth. It would be optimistic, however, to believe that prudential measures, alone, could deliver full economic recovery, for the collapse of the 'state of confidence' has fed depressive forces and policy challenges which could hold for a while, even once the financial sector is made safe. On the one hand, the economic slowdown and the direct and indirect assistance provided by the governments to the private sectors are having a heavy impact on public finances, meanwhile, on the other hand, the massive amounts of money which artificially inflated the prices of housing and financial products could produce inflationary pressures in the post-crisis period, unless a new assets bubble is allowed for. Authorities could therefore be facing high unemployment in a damaged context of public deficits and inflationary pressures. The paper aims at discussing these new challenges. The inadequacy of inflation targets and fiscal orthodoxy in a depressed economy is emphasized, and the outlines of a Post Keynesian alternative policy are examined.
 
Marx has a method for the evaluation of patterns of interaction between finance and innovation. Two starting points of this method are the simultaneity of cause and effect and the identification of reciprocal effects between the monetary-financial dimension and the industrialinnovative dimension. This paper investigates this method firstly defining a dynamic concept of money. The connections between the monetary-financial dimension and the industrial-innovative dimension are examined through their historical and theoretical elements. Finally, the most important connections of this complex interaction are presented.
 
A China apresentou um fabuloso crescimento desde 1978, ao mesmo tempo em que manteve a infla��o est�vel. Quais os fatores respons�veis pelo sucesso da economia chinesa e at� que ponto a pol�tica macroecon�mica colaborou? Obviamente, diversos fatores foram respons�veis por este crescimento, apesar de nenhum destes, isoladamente, poder ser apontado como o principal. O artigo indaga se ser� poss�vel a China manter um ritmo semelhante de crescimento, ou se ir� passar em breve por uma forte desacelera��o, a exemplo do que j� aconteceu com outros pa�ses asi�ticos. Sugere-se que esta ainda poder� manter um vigoroso crescimento, bastante pr�ximo da m�dia observada nas tr�s �ltimas d�cadas.
 
A study about the victimization in the city of São Paulo. This paper applies the crime economics theory to Brazilian data. Following Becker (1968), Hinderlang et al. (1978) and Cohen et al. (1981), we tested the microeconomic factors that influence crime and victimization. For this end, the two waves of research of victimization of the Instituto Futuro Brasil, 2003 and 2008, were used in an effort to identify the determinants of victimization and police notification, using probit model. The main results suggest the factors which impact significantly the probability of victimization are the demographic characteristics, economic conditions and personal habits. The models of "life style" and "opportunity" seem to have good performance.
 
Economics was born under the sign of methodological vagueness. The first author who tried to solve the question (John Stuart Mill) asserted that it is a kind of knowledge that uses the abstract (direct deductive) method but also that it is an exception because for all other phenomena in the field of moral science the correct method is the inverse deductive or historical method. On the other side, functionalist explanations that are condemned by the scientific precepts of economics are present in the science since its beginning. Economics went ahead without worriment about these methodological issues but this indefiniteness has never gone off stage. Since the start of XXI century new facts are emerging. Developments in Psychology are giving a new breath to Friedman's point of view and seem to fortify the mainstream (Rogebert e Nordberg, 2005), whereas unfolding in complexity science promises to throw it down and put in its place another kind of explanation borrowed from Biology (Beinhocker, 2006). All this stimulates to retake the question. We do this here, under a critical vision, taking the taxonomy of scientific explanations framed by modern positivism.
 
RESUMO Dado um elemento significativo da verdade em “Escolha Pública”, um elemento modesto deve ser encontrado quando uma abordagem semelhante é feita ao comportamento dos cientistas econômicos. Harry Johnson encontrou isso em “A revolução keynesiana e a contra-revolução monetarista”. Depois dele, encontro mais na própria “Revolução” da Escolha Pública. As visões, suposições e métodos básicos desses últimos são avaliados dentro de seu fluxo de tempo e espaço. Essa abordagem é um complemento à Sociologia do Conhecimento (Thomas Kuhn) e pode ser tomada como uma Economia do Conhecimento embrionária (Neoclássica). Requisitos para o sucesso de revoluções científicas é o tema.
 
In this paper two hypotheses about the relationship between monetary policy and investment in the context of the inflation target system were tested. One of these hypotheses is based on the idea of neutrality of money, and the other hypothesis is based on the reject of that idea. An investment equation for seventeen economies using a piece-wise dummy variable was estimated by the Methodology of Panel Data. The results highlight that a negative correlation between current expectation of restrictive monetary policy and current investment rose after the inflation target system implementation.
 
RESUMO Embora A. Gerschenkron, algumas décadas atrás, tenha argumentado de maneira muito convincente que as pré-condições para a industrialização de um país não são rígidas, ainda faz sentido tentar identificar as pré-condições que devem ser aproximadamente cumpridas para que um país possa se industrializar. Essa ideia é aplicada ao Brasil no século XIX.
 
RESUMO Diferentemente dos ciclos de crescimento anteriores no Brasil, o novo que completará o plano de estabilização do Real não pode mais contar com o Estado como o principal financiador e responsável pelos investimentos em infraestrutura. Isso representa uma tendência mundial, que originou o financiamento do projeto, uma maneira de financiar pesados investimentos projetados para viabilizar a parceria público-privada. O financiamento do projeto separa o risco firme do risco comercial e projeta arranjos financeiros específicos para cada projeto de investimento. No Brasil, agora que a lei que regula a concessão ao setor privado foi promulgada e o programa de privatização foi acelerado, o financiamento do projeto provavelmente constituirá o principal procedimento de financiamento para investimentos em infraestrutura. Para que o financiamento do projeto funcione, o ambiente regulatório deve ser claro e os contratos devem ter credibilidade, impedindo que o setor público seja esquecido, forçado a resgatar projetos insolventes. É apresentada uma nova proposta para o sistema BNDES - um seguro contra o risco macroeconômico nas operações de crédito. Esta proposta visa a construção de um mercado de crédito de longo prazo no Brasil.
 
This article seeks to show that, in spite of major steps towards getting close to reality, new-Keynesian macroeconomics is still full of difficulties, like the "ad hoc" hypothesis used to explain the non neutrality of money and the existence of disequilibria in the short run. In particular, price and wage rigidities - which are recognized as "stylized facts" - seem to stand in sandy bases, while it seems problematic to derive the IS and LM curves from its neoclassical fundamentals. In this sense, the connections between the short run and the long run, which includes the relationships between the interest rate and money and between money and output do not seem consistent. Finally, the challenge of the neoclassical fundamentals posed by Joan Robinson and Sraffa criticisms remain largely uncontested.
 
RESUMO É apresentada uma descrição de um programa de pesquisa sobre a natureza incompleta do conhecimento científico e ampliado para analisar o currículo mínimo de economia no Brasil e a consequente mutação de propostas de mudança. Considerando os diferentes níveis de abstração na ciência pura, na ciência aplicada e na arte da tricotomia científica, observa-se que o currículo mínimo prescreve treinamento adequado para a economia social ou aplicada. Conclui-se que um período adicional de dois anos é recomendado, um para fortalecer a economia pura no ciclo básico e outro para a arte da economia na fase destinada ao treinamento profissionalizado. Consideração também é dada à especialização em economia pura voltada exclusivamente para o ensino e pesquisa
 
RESUMO Este artigo trata da dimensão moral da dívida pública e seu referencial teórico é a economia constitucional. Argumenta-se que a principal razão para a existência de qualquer vínculo moral entre dívida pública e ética é a transferência de custos para as gerações futuras. Em primeiro lugar, o artigo explora a análise da dívida pública de James Buchanan. Em segundo lugar, é descrito no artigo o ponto de vista neoclássico sobre o assunto. O principal objetivo aqui é estabelecer, partindo do ponto de vista positivo e passando por um normativo, o papel de uma análise deontológica do ônus da dívida. Depois disso, faço a ligação entre instituições, esquemas de incentivos e dívida.
 
This paper investigates the existence of national styles of political economy. The characteristics and determinants of the German, the Austrian, the French, and the English styles are suggested. Some methodological implications for the historical economic thought are outlined.
 
RESUMO No final de 1997, o governo brasileiro anunciou a primeira versão de uma reforma tributária que contemplava uma revisão completa da tributação indireta no país. Os impostos sobre o faturamento deveriam ser eliminados e a perda de receita resultante compensada por um novo IVA de base ampla coordenado pelo governo federal, que substituiria os atuais IVAs estaduais incoerentes e o imposto sobre serviços em grande parte mal administrado imposto pelos governos locais. Neste artigo, modelos de simulação são usados para estudar a consistência da reforma proposta e algumas de suas possíveis consequências. Uma estrutura de análise de risco é usada para sublinhar as incertezas mais importantes envolvidas.
 
Taking as a point of departure the classical model of Schumpeterian competition proposed by Nelson and Winter, this work expands it by including two sectors and a North-South dynamics, with a view to analyzing how institutions and technological regimes affect the processes of convergence and divergence in the international economy. The model highlights some microeconomic variables that play a key role in shaping convergence and divergence, like the amount of resources that firms devote to R&D and their efforts to boost the diffusion of technology. The results suggest a view of convergence based on strong learning efforts in less developed economies. Convergence requires institutions favorable to innovation when the technological regime is science-based. On the other hand, when the regime is cumulative, imitation could offer a promising avenue for catching-up with the technological leaders. Finally, this work also analyses the strength of the model results using Montecarlo method and probability density graphs.
 
This paper assesses the relationship between the capital account and the Brazilian economic growth according to balance-of-payments constraint approach. The Thirlwall (1979)´s simple rule is extended to take into consideration capital account and several empirical evidence using time series analysis are shown. Conversely to the simple rule when fitted rates of balance-of-payment equilibrium economic growth average bellow the observed ones, fitted rates of growth using the rule extended to international liquidity are consistently greater than the observed ones. It is fair to conclude that, first, the Brazilian economy grows better during abundant international liquidity and, second, the economy sub utilizes such advantage growing far less than it could grow.
 
This paper provides an assessment of the tax-reform effort launched by the newly elected Lula government in 2003. It analyzes how the envisaged reform had to be changed and scaled down, in the wake of strong political resistance, after a failed attempt to develop a consensual proposal, fully supported by state-governors. The main effective changes are then evaluated. Challenges ahead are discussed at the end.
 
RESUMO Este artigo discute a influência da pressão externa no processo de liberalização do comércio brasileiro. As condições sob as quais a pressão externa é definida são baseadas na abordagem de autores de políticas internacionais conhecidas como “realistas” e relacionadas aos interesses dos Estados, dependência de instrumentos específicos de pressão e vulnerabilidade à pressão. São analisados eventos como o declínio da hegemonia americana, a ascensão de países recém-industrializados, a globalização da economia internacional e a crise da dívida, que levaram a um aumento do conflito internacional durante a década de 1980, além de fatores domésticos, como o econômico. vulnerabilidade do Brasil.
 
Top-cited authors
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira
  • Escola de Economia de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas
JoséLuis Da Costa Oreiro
  • University of Brasília
Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque
  • Federal University of Minas Gerais
Carmem Feijo
  • Universidade Federal Fluminense
Wilson Suzigan
  • University of Campinas