Regional Environmental Change

Published by Springer Nature
Online ISSN: 1436-378X
Learn more about this page
Recent publications
Overview of the study system Sechura Bay in Northern Peru, indicating all villages in which interviews were conducted (black dots): Sechura, Constante, Parachique, Playa Blanca, Bayovar (cf. “Data collection”). ILT = Island Lobos de Tierra (modified from Fig. 1 in Kluger et al. 2019a)
Representations of scallop farmer associations’ ego-networks (a) before (in 2015) and (b) during the Coastal El Niño (in 2017) with alters (circles) colored according to affiliation with functional groups. The size of the circles is scaled according to the average number of positive (i.e., very helpful and helpful) links with the respective alter across all interviewed scallop farmer associations (n = 35)
a Bar plots showing positive (very helpful or helpful), neutral, and negative (harmful) links that scallop farmer associations (n = 35) had with different entities, presented separately for before the Coastal El Niño (CEN) (in 2015) and during the CEN (in 2017). b Alluvial plot showing the evolution of perceived helpfulness (very helpful +  + , helpful + , neutral ~ , harmful -; NA represents links non-existent in the respective year) of links (n = 284 with an attributed perceived helpfulness value in either 2015 or 2017) from before the Coastal El Niño (in 2015) to during the Coastal El Niño (in 2017). Alluvia width is proportional to the number of links in each category. Color corresponds to the perceived helpfulness in 2015 (very helpful, dark green; helpful, light green; neutral, blue; harmful, red). NA to NA links (n = 191) were omitted
Plots showing model coefficients (circles) and standard errors (bars) from cumulative link mixed models comparing relative changes in frequency (top) and helpfulness (bottom) of scallop farmer’ interactions with alters from before the Coastal El Niño (in 2015) to during the Coastal El Niño (in 2017). The group of fishers was taken as a reference point for this analysis and is thus omitted (cf. “Data analysis”). Circles are colored according to functional groups of actors. Note: A positive effect coefficient corresponds to a decrease in helpfulness and interaction frequency, respectively, from 2015 to 2017
Boxplots showing a the degree centrality (number of positive, i.e., very helpful and helpful links) of scallop farmer associations (n = 35) before the Coastal El Niño (CEN) (in 2015) and during the CEN event (in 2017) (top), b the degree centrality (number of positive links) of scallop farmer associations separated by categories of post-disaster trajectories in 2015 (center left) and 2017 (center right), c the number of economic (bottom left) and non-economic (bottom right) links of scallop farmer associations separated by categories of post-disaster trajectories. Box extent represent quartile 1 (Q1) and quartile 3 (Q3), while whiskers indicate the minimum (Q1-1.5*interquartile range) and maximum (Q3 + 1.5*interquartile range). The median (solid line) and mean (diamond) degree centrality are given. Outliers are indicated by black dots
Abrupt environmental change, such as sudden shifts in temperature or salinity, can severely alter the functioning of marine ecosystems and cause dramatic impacts on the associated social systems. Resource users, who rely on ecosystem services provided by the ocean, are particularly vulnerable to such drastic events. Functioning social relationships (social capital) have recently been suggested as a key driver for recovery after disaster. Here, we study how small-scale fishers who conduct sea-ranching of the Peruvian bay scallop Argopecten purpuratus in Northern Peru dealt with the literal wipe-out of their target resources caused by the Coastal El Niño (CEN) of 2017 that heavily impacted the entire region. Adopting an ego-network approach complemented by qualitative information from expert interviews, we investigated how resource users drew on their social networks to cope with the disaster. Results suggested a significant positive correlation between more desirable post-disaster trajectories and the number of helpful social links of scallop farmer associations. Disentangling the temporal aspect of this pattern, we found that social capital established before the disaster was driving this correlation. Importantly, both economic and non-economic links were contributing to the observed patterns. This study emphasizes the importance of social capital for dealing with the effects of disasters following natural events. Having extensive social networks increases the capacity to mobilize resources and information when needed and is associated with more efficient recovery after abrupt environmental change. Mechanisms to foster and enhance social capital are key for preventive management actions aiming to build resilience within vulnerable communities facing accelerating global change.
Geographical location of experimental sites (white dot: fringe mangrove, black dot: riverine mangrove) for each studied river in French Guiana (a Sinnamary, b Kourou, c Mahury). Black lines and dashed areas indicate hydrographical network and mangrove distribution respectively. Abbreviation: km, kilometers (cartographic backgrounds source: ©2018 GADM; mangrove distribution source: ©2020 CARNAMA(@PRZHT))
Total carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) concentrations expressed as a percentage of dry mass and C:N ratios of Avicennia germinans leaf litter originated from fringe stands (a, c, e) transplanted home (FF, white) or away (FR, light gray) and riverine stands (b, d, f) transplanted home (RR, black) or away (RF, dark gray) after 30 and 45 days of decomposition. Solid and dashed lines indicate when litterbags are transplanted at “home” or “away” respectively. Means and SE. Different letters indicate statistical differences among groups with a < b < c and A < B < C after 30 and 45 days respectively (post hoc pairwise comparison p < 0.05)
Microbial catabolic activities (a tyrosinase; b FDAse) and functional diversity (c Shannon index H’) and evenness (d Evenness index EvInd) of Avicennia germinans leaf litter originated from fringe stands transplanted home (FF, white) or away (FR, light gray) and from riverine stands transplanted home (RR, black) or away (RF, dark gray) after 30 and 45 days of decomposition. The activities are expressed as μmoles of reaction product formed per minute (U) per gram of dry matter (U g.⁻¹ DM). Different letters indicate statistical differences among groups with a < b and A < B after 30 and 45 days respectively; bars indicate statistical differences between 30 and 45 days within one type of transplant (post hoc pairwise comparison p < 0.05)
Microbial biomass (a), fungal biomass (b), and bacterial biomass (c) of Avicennia germinans leaf litter originated from riverine stands transplanted home (RR, black) or away (RF, dark gray) and from fringe stands transplanted home (FF, white) or away (FR, light gray) after 30 and 45 days of decomposition. Grids, dots, and plain bars indicate general bacterial markers (GBM), G⁻ bacteria biomarkers and G⁺ bacteria biomarkers biomasses respectively. Biomasses are expressed as phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) biomarkers abundance (μg g litter.⁻¹ dry matter). Means and SE. Different letters indicate statistical differences among groups with a < b after 30 and 45 days respectively (post hoc pairwise comparison p < 0.05)
Litter ash-free dry mass (AFDM) remaining expressed as a relative fraction of initial mass of Avicennia germinans leaf litter originated from fringe stands (a) transplanted home (FF, white) or away (FR, light gray) and riverine stands (b) transplanted home (RR, black) or away (RF, dark gray) after 30 and 45 days of decomposition. Solid and dashed lines indicate when litterbags are transplanted at “home” or “away” respectively. Means and SE. Bars indicate statistical differences between 30 and 45 days within one type of transfer (post hoc pairwise comparison p < 0.05)
Mangroves are highly productive and changing forests located in the intertidal zone of tropical regions. Leaf litter decomposition represents a substantial part of their carbon sink abilities. Little is known about the potential effect of climate change on this key process of ecosystem functioning. This study compared leaf litter microbial decay between fringe and riverine Avicennia germinans stands. A direct and reciprocal transplant experiment using litterbags was setup in French Guiana to test 3 hypotheses: (i) the activities and abundance of microbial decomposers are lowest in the fringe mangroves due to exposure to saline water and tidal immersion; (ii) for these reasons, litter decomposes faster in riverine stands; and (iii) according to the home-field advantage hypothesis, litter decomposes more rapidly in the environment from which it originates. Remaining litter masses, abundance of litter microbial community (phospholipid fatty acid signatures (PLFA)), and their functional capability (enzyme activities and Biolog) were assessed. Litter directly transplanted in riverine stands showed higher enzymatic activity (+ 77%), catabolic diversity (+ 10%), and microbial biomass (+ 60%) than litter transplanted directly in fringe stands. In contrast, both riverine and fringe derived litter showed faster decay at the fringe (14% mass loss) than riverine site (4% mass loss) between 30 and 45 days. Here, environmental conditions associated with different distances from the sea such as salinity and inundation regimes, rather than microbial features are suggested as main factors affecting decomposition process. Expected sea level rise in the coastal Guianas may therefore modify the mangroves productivity in the coming decades.
Kourou beach in French Guiana: a regional setting showing mud banks migrating westwards (arrows); b regional wave approach directions; c 2017 aerial photograph of the beach with location of ground photographs showing urban front exposed to erosion (photographs 1 and 2) since 2016 that has motivated the emplacement of an 860-km-long dike made of sand-filled geotextile bags and a wooden wall
Multi-decadal shoreline fluctuations determined for 450 transects spaced 10 m apart on Kourou beach together with the envelope of change in red a, over six intervals between 1950 and 2017 depicted, for clarity, in two panels (b, c), with the error margin specified in the pink transparent bands. Note that the period 1970–1999 was characterized by sustained welding of mud banks onshore and 2005-2011 by fluid mud, that shut down beach mobility. The transects in the southeast include a short segment of beach with rock outcrops. Transects in the northwestern sector of the beach are ignored because this part of the beach was mud-bound over some of the intervals of analysis
a Bathymetric differencing between 2017 and 2018 in the southeastern sector of Kourou beach showing shoreface accretion generated by the arrival of a new mud bank. Transect numbers (8, 100, 150, and 250) define the limits of the three monitored beach sectors: sector (i) downdrift (under normal northwestward longshore transport conditions) of Pointe des Roches headland, a short sector (ii) comprising the urban rainwater evacuation outlet and a rock outcrop, and sector (iii) covering the dense urban front; b overall sediment budget (2017–2019) is expressed in m³ and detailed graphs of the sediment budget for the three sectors in m³/l.m for the intervals (2017–2018 and 2018–2019). The yellow box in sector (iii) shows the volume of sand emplaced in the geotextile dike between 2016 and 2019. DoDs of the three sectors analyzed from aerial photogrammetry are shown in Supplementary Fig. 2
a High-resolution photograph of Kourou beach in 2017 showing the locations of a selection of transects used in the shoreline fluctuation analysis of the southeastern sector. b Beach profiles for selected transects between 2017 and 2019 extracted from DEMs. Mean levels of spring and neap tides: MHWS, mean high water spring tide level; MHWN, mean high water neap tide level; MLWN, mean low water neap tide level. For purposes of comparison, a profile from the non-urban northwestern sector of the beach field-surveyed in July 2019 is also shown
Conceptual model of beach rotation in Kourou associated with a bounding updrift southeastern headland (PR — Pointe des Roches) and a northwest downdrift sector with no bounding headland. Normal longshore transport generated by the regional wave regime during inter-bank phases is to the northwest a, and the inverse transport to the southeast b. Drift reversal to accomplish aperiodic rotation is controlled by refraction of trade-wind waves from the NE at the leading front and inner edge of mud banks
Beach rotation is a widely described process characterized by periodic alternations in sediment transport involving erosion at one end of the beach and accretion at the other. The 1500-km-long coast of the Guianas, South America, is a unique system dominated by large migrating mud banks, muddy, mangrove-rich shorelines, and rare sandy beaches. Interactions between waves and the rare beaches on this coast are affected by the mud banks which are separated by ‘inter-bank’ areas. Kourou beach is situated near the site of the European Space Agency’s satellite-launching pad in French Guiana. The beach has maintained multi-decadal stability, but its interaction with mud banks has led to phases of severe erosion. To understand these changes, which constitute a risk for the urban front of Kourou, we combined a mesoscale temporal (1950–2017) analysis of shoreline fluctuations with a short-term approach based on photogrammetric monitoring of beach change conducted in 2017–2018 and on bathymetric surveys of the nearshore zone. The results show that Kourou beach evolves in a context of ‘rotation’, a process involving periodic alternations in beach erosion and recovery. Rotation is characterized during inter-bank phases by ‘normal’ sand transport to the northwest generated by the prevailing NE waves, and during mud-bank phases by drift reversal to the southeast generated by refraction of these waves at the leading front of a bank. Due to the aperiodic nature of these bank and inter-bank phases, erosion and accretion involved in beach rotation may prevail over variable periods of time (several years to decades). The large mud banks migrating from east to west first protect the southeastern sector of the beach, blocking the ‘normal’ northwestward longshore sand transport, but generating, through differential refraction, southeastward counter-drift. These processes and the irregular timescale of beach rotation they entail have not been compatible with the recent urbanization of the beach front in the southeastern sector, resulting in erosion and a sense of threat to beachfront property. Insight gained from an understanding of the rotation process and its irregular timescales should contribute to better beach-front management.
Knowledge systems approaches for enhancing the impact of research are well established and tend to focus on the ways in which researchers can adapt their engagement with stakeholders to achieve a better “fit” between research and action agendas. Yet, these approaches are often based on explicit or implicit assumptions of a skilled and willing research team, and stable and well-defined stakeholders, who have consistent and reasonably well-defined needs. This paper discusses how knowledge systems approaches were developed and deployed in the first phase of the Gambut Kita (Our Peatland) project on community fire management and peatland restoration in Indonesia (2017–2021). This was a complex project with a large multi-disciplinary team situated across dynamic institutions in Indonesia and Australia, and addressing a politically controversial topic. To capture the diverse experience of the researchers, and to focus on the needs of stakeholders, we developed a sequence of whole-of-project approaches comprising the following: (i) stakeholder mapping exercises at three nested scales combining stakeholder analysis, knowledge systems mapping and impact pathways analysis; (ii) a project coordinating committee of high-level Indonesian policy-makers and policy-influencers; (iii) a stakeholder engagement forum and (iv) online policy dialogues. We demonstrate its effects through the case of developing an Indonesian Peat Fire Danger Rating System (Peat FDRS), as a core project deliverable. Over 4 years, these structured stakeholder engagement processes gave rise to a Peat FDRS Stakeholder Engagement Network (a multi-institutional working group), which is making significant progress in navigating the complexity inherent in realising an accurate Indonesian Peat FDRS.
Ongoing European suppression of Aboriginal cultural land management since early-nineteenth century colonisation is widely thought to have caused major transformations across all Australian landscapes, including vegetation thickening, severe fires and biodiversity declines. However, these effects are often confounded in the densely settled southern Australia due to European land transformation. Landscapes currently under conservation and national park management in Tasmania are generally less disturbed, providing an opportunity to track ecosystem changes caused by the removal of Aboriginal peoples following colonisation in southern Australia. We use a multi-proxy palaeoecological technique and the analysis of historical aerial photography to investigate these changes in Cape Pillar, southeast Tasmania. Results reveal a major ecological shift following European colonisation, with the replacement of stable, open wet heathland characterised by minor fires (active cultural land use) with dense dry scrub characterised by major fires (cessation of cultural land use). We also discuss potential background role of regional climatic shifts in the observed ecological changes. Management programmes designed to restore open heathland pre-colonial cultural ecosystem would help reduce the risk of large fires in Cape Pillar.
Map of the study area showing a) each state labeled with its postal code abbreviation (AZ = Arizona, CA = California, CO = Colorado, ID = Idaho, MT = Montana, NM = New Mexico, NV = Nevada, OR = Oregon, UT = Utah, WA = Washington, WY = Wyoming); b) the annual probability of a given federally-managed or privately-owned forest burning, averaged from 1989–2016; c) the proportion of land area covered by forests; and d) the proportion of forests owned by the federal government
Predicted probability of fire in federally managed forests and private, unprotected forests using the all-state model, from 1989–2016, including 95% confidence intervals. The first panel shows the predicted probability across all states; the remaining panels show the predicted probability for each state within the all-state model
Comparison of the marginal effect of federal management (Fed manage) with a one-unit change in the value of the climate variables in each state’s model in 2016: maximum temperature (Max temp, ˚C), minimum temperature (Min temp, ˚C), precipitation (Precip, cm), soil moisture (Soil, mm), wind speed (Wind sp, m/s), and PDSI in winter (W), spring (Sp), summer (Su), fall (F), and for precipitation in the previous year (PrevY, cm). Background colors indicate the type of variable. The y-axis ranges vary between states
Sustainable management of complex social-ecological systems depends on understanding the effects of different drivers of change, but disentangling these effects poses a challenge. We provide a framework for quantifying the relative contributions of different components of a social-ecological system to the system’s outcomes, using forest fires in the western United States as a model. Specifically, we examine the difference in wildfire probability in similar forests under different management regimes (federally managed vs. privately owned) in eleven western states from 1989–2016 and compare the magnitude of the management effect to the effect of climate variables. We find a greater probability of wildfires in federally managed forests than in privately owned forests, with a 127% increase in the absolute difference between the two management regimes over the 28 year time period. However, in 1989, federally managed forests were 2.67 times more likely to burn than privately owned forests, but in 2016, they were only 1.52 times more likely to burn. Finally, we find that the effect of the different management regimes is greater than the marginal (one-unit change) effect of most climate variables. Our results indicate that projections of future fire probability must account for both climate and management variables, while our methodology provides a framework for quantitatively comparing different drivers of change in complex social-ecological systems.
Brazil’s road distance map, considering all built roads. Black lines are Brazilian ecosystems’ boundaries. AM = Amazon; ATL = Atlantic Forest; CAA = Caatinga; CER = Cerrado; PAM = Pampa; PANT = Pantanal
Land use and land cover in Brazil’s roadless areas delimited by a paved roads, b built roads, and c all roads. Each group, consisting of three bars, represents the whole ecosystem (TOTAL), the road-effects zone (REZ), and the roadless area (RLA), respectively. “Others” is a class that includes non-vegetated areas and forest plantations
Relationship between roadless patch area and native vegetation cover for a Brazil, b Amazon, c Atlantic Forest, d Caatinga, e Cerrado, f Pampa, and g Pantanal. The red lines are the predictor for the mean parameter of the GAMLSS model, representing the average increase of native vegetation cover according to roadless patch area, and the shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval. Each plot contains the estimated coefficient for the mean parameter and its corresponding p-value
Land use and cover in Brazil’s roadless areas inside a strictly protected areas, b sustainable use protected areas, and c indigenous lands. Each group, consisting of three bars, represents the whole ecosystem (TOTAL), the road-effects zone (REZ), and the roadless area (RLA), respectively. “Others” is a class that includes non-vegetated areas and forest plantations
Relationship between the percentage of a protected area covered by roadless areas and its native vegetation cover, considering Brazil as a whole, for a strictly protected areas, b sustainable use protected areas, and c indigenous lands. The black lines are the predictor for the mean parameter of the GAMLSS model, representing the average increase of native vegetation cover according to roadless area coverage, and the shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval. Each plot contains the estimated coefficient for the mean parameter and its corresponding p-value
Roadless areas (RLAs) are places with little to no influence of roads, usually sustaining well-preserved habitats, whereas road-effects zones (REZs) are areas affected by roads. Here, we map and characterize RLAs and REZs in Brazil, using national and international road network, land use and land cover, and protected areas databases. Following a global scale study, RLAs were defined as areas within ≥ 1 km from roads. Considering only paved roads, 8.2 M km2 (95%) of Brazil’s territory is RLAs, a figure that reduces to 6.8 M km2 (81%) when all built roads are included. In Brazil, the furthest location from roads is in the Amazon, 321 km away from the nearest road. Although RLAs differs among the Brazilian ecosystems, some common patterns emerge: (i) There is a lower percentage of natural vegetation cover on REZs than in RLAs, except for the Pampa; (ii) RLAs are mostly composed by natural vegetation, except in the Atlantic Forest, where farming lands dominate; (iii) protected RLAs are mostly covered by natural vegetation. Only 36.9% of Brazil’s RLAs are inside protected areas or indigenous lands. Even so, given the ongoing expansion of the road network and agriculture frontier in Brazil, it is unequivocal the role of those protected areas in stopping those drivers, making it paramount to explicitly include RLAs when planning new protected areas. Lastly, we found a positive relationship between a RLA patch size and its native vegetation cover as well as a positive relationship between the percentage of a protected area covered by RLA and its native vegetation cover.
The dynamic and relational im/mobility cube designed for the climate crisis—a graphic and conceptual device to story kinopolitical struggles across degrees of climate influences and differential outcomes. A Conceptual mobility axes and sub-dimensions (E = experiences, D = drivers, C = consequences). B Intersecting and embodied kinopolitical struggles
Recent scholarship on climate mobilities and mobility justice calls for dynamic, relational, and agent-centered approaches to comprehend the complex decision-making that compels certain people to leave the places they call home, encourages or forces others to stay put, and acknowledges those who engage with mobile populations in host countries. Yet, these efforts fall short of advancing a coherent conceptual framework to make sense of the multifaceted, subjective, and affective aspects of climate-related movements and deliver more inclusive research agendas in the context of regional environmental change. This article aims to address this gap by introducing a multidimensional visual heuristic that we call the im/mobility cube. This framework makes it possible to systematically examine relational and intersectional struggles of mobility and (dis)placement, along three interconnected axes: the lived experiences of moving, remaining in place, and receiving mobile subjects upon arrival; the role of climate change as part of a complex web of drivers; and the consequences that mobility and immobility have on people’s lives, livelihoods, and well-being, from desirable benefits to intolerable losses. This heuristic foregrounds the embodied inequalities and often intimate kinopolitical struggles that im/mobile populations face, at the juncture of their aspirations and capabilities, complex subject-making processes, and ever shifting relations of power. As such, our conceptual lens sharpens the focus on the simultaneity and linkages of climate-driven im/mobility encounters within regional contexts and their diverse and courageous protagonists.
Extreme regional ocean warming events, like marine heatwaves (MHWs), could have severe and long-lasting impacts on species and ecosystems. Extreme and persistent warming of the ocean could directly threaten survival of marine species, as exceeding their thermal tolerance often leads to massive mortality events. Similarly, MHWs could further threaten species persistence indirectly, by altering food webs, leading to cascading effects that are expected to be more pronounced for species at a lower trophic position. Green turtles, a representative species of the charismatic marine megafauna, are largely herbivorous; thus, their food availability is tightly linked to environmental conditions. Here, we explored the degree to which foraging areas of green turtles along the Southeast Asian region could be subjected to MHWs in the future. For this, we applied a series of climatic niche models to spatially delineate important foraging habitats for adult green turtles, Chelonia mydas, across the marine region of Southeast Asia. Our analysis revealed that marine sites, which could host foraging grounds for adult green turtles, cover around 37% of the Southeast Asian region, with high probability of experiencing prolonged and intense MHWs for the vast majority of these sites. The annual number of days subjected to MHWs could increase by 16-fold from the very recent past period, leading to even a permanent MHW state. These results offer some alarming messages for scientists and conservation planners, highlighting the need to improve our knowledge on the potential response of species to MHWs and design climate adaptation strategies.
It is increasingly evident that climate change is intersecting in complex ways with the more traditional drivers of migration, such as poverty and conflict. Yet there remains a startling lack of international agreement on how to address the issue. This article examines the problem climate change-related migration poses in terms of international responsibility and provides a review of two approaches to addressing this challenge. First, the idea that migration in the context of climate change requires the development of a new international protection agreement and, second, the argument that migration should be managed and mitigated through in situ adaptation and development programmes. These approaches differ in terms of how they understand the relationship between migration and climate change and thus differ also in terms of how they situate responsibility and address issues of climate justice. This paper explores these differences and outlines the benefits and challenges of both. Following this, we turn to the case of New Zealand’s immigration tribunal appeals involving claims for climate-refugee status and look at how in situ adaptation, development narratives and arbitrary risk thresholds have been used to legitimise the denial of these claims. Throughout the article, we ask to what extent these approaches acknowledge climate justice, and we conclude by looking at ways that climate (mobility) justice might be better incorporated into solutions that prioritise the needs of migrants in the context of rapid climate change.
a Location of Grand-Ouaga administrative boundary containing Ouagadougou with respect to Burkina Faso; b elevation and main hydrological network highlighting the study area with respect to Grand-Ouaga; c monitored and hydrological model sub-catchments flowing into the central city area, labelled according to their respective directional location; d hydraulically modelled central city area, containing three linked dam systems
Flow chart detailing decision-maker engagement process that guided the modelling chain used in this study
Process chain to generate space–time design storms at the city (Ouagadougou) scale based on the CP4A regional climate model simulations. Green boxes indicate data, blue boxes indicate models and black boxes are derived products (CDF, cumulative density function; GEV, generalised extreme value)
Process chain for modelling the impacts of climate change and urbanisation on city (Ouagadougou centre) flooding. Green boxes indicate data, blue boxes indicate models and black boxes are derived products (note – design storm product is used as input data to drive the hydrological model)
Mapping of modelled flood depths and extent over central Ouagadougou. Base imagery of land cover in Ouagadougou is from satellite imagery: ESRI/USGS
Intensification of the hydrological cycle resulting from climate change in West Africa poses significant risks for the region’s rapidly urbanising cities, but limited research on flood risk has been undertaken at the urban domain scale. Furthermore, conventional climate models are unable to realistically represent the type of intense storms which dominate the West African monsoon. This paper presents a decision-first framing of climate research in co-production of a climate-hydrology-flooding modelling chain, linking scientists working on state-of-the-art regional climate science with decision-makers involved in city planning for future urban flood management in the city of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. The realistic convection-permitting model over Africa (CP4A) is applied at the urban scale for the first time and data suggest significant intensification of high-impact weather events and demonstrate the importance of considering the spatio-temporal scales in CP4A. Hydrological modelling and hydraulic modelling indicate increases in peak flows and flood extents in Ouagadougou in response to climate change which will be further exacerbated by future urbanisation. Advances in decision-makers’ capability for using climate information within Ouagadougou were observed, and key recommendations applicable to other regional urban areas are made. This study provides proof of concept that a decision-first modelling-chain provides a methodology for co-producing climate information that can, to some extent, bridge the usability gap between what scientists think is useful and what decision-makers need.
The tau values of temperature trends in individual marine protected areas (marine parks) by marine park network (MPA region). Red and blue indicate that the trend of monthly averaged temperatures between 1993 and 2017 was significant and non-significant, respectively
The significance of temperature trends in individual marine protected areas (marine parks) by marine park network (MPA region). Red indicates a significantly increasing trend of monthly averaged temperatures between 1993 and 2017. Blue indicates that the trend was not significant
The proportion of criteria addressed (green), not addressed (red), and partially addressed (yellow) for each step described in Adapting to climate change: guidance for protected area managers and planners (Gross et al. 2017)
Climate change and related ocean warming have affected marine ecological and socioeconomic systems worldwide. Therefore, it is critically important to assess the performance of conservation mechanisms, particularly marine protected areas (MPAs) to moderate the risks of climate-related impacts. In this study, sea surface temperature trends of Australian Commonwealth MPAs are assessed against climate change management criteria, as defined in Adapting to Climate Change: Guidance for Protected Area Managers and Planners. Monthly sea surface temperature trends between 1993 and 2017 were statistically assessed using the Mann–Kendall trend test and management plans were subject to a thematic analysis. Temperature trends showed variable SST changes among the regions, with the northern reserves all showing statistically significant increases in temperature, and the Southwest Network having the least number of reserves with statistically significant increases in temperature. The thematic analysis shows that management plans address approximately half of the climate change adaptation criteria. Several management strategies, such as dynamic MPAs, replication, and translocations, are currently absent and have been suggested as necessary tools in supporting the climate readiness of Australian MPAs. This study is significant because it helps to identify and synthesize regions most vulnerable to the impacts of ocean warming and provides management suggestions make MPAs “climate ready.”
Over the past decade, unauthorized migration from Honduras to the USA has become a topic of pressing international concern and a major factor in the political and humanitarian crisis at the southern border of the USA that has been unfolding since 2014. Untangling the causes of recent Honduran migration requires attending to economic change, political instability, the impact of violence and crime, rapidly changing gender roles, among many other forces that shape migration patterns. Recently, scholars and policy-makers have analyzed the impact of drought in the so-called Dry Corridor of Central America as a major source of migration, particularly among coffee producers who have been hard hit by unprecedented heat and lack of rain in parts of Honduras. Drawing on ethnographic studies of Honduran coffee farmers, this paper will discuss how and if climatic factors can be isolated from other factors to explain recent Honduran migration behavior, in order to move towards a holistic explanation of climate-driven migration.
Location of the study area. a Map of India shows the location of the state West Benagal; b map of West Bengal shows the location of the 24 Parganas (south and north) districts and northern limits of the tidal zone marked by Dampier Hodges line; c map of 24 Parganas shows the location of G-Plot Island; d map of G-Plot showing the location of eight villages including Gobardhanpur having a location confronting regular coastal erosion
The Indian Sundarban is one of the most vulnerable eco-regions of the world and its vulnerability has increased manifold in the last two decades. Despite the insecurities and risks, people do not always migrate and often prefer to stay back by adjusting their lives and livelihood. This article explores the practice of immobility and the process of decision-making that results in immobility. Based on empirical research carried out at Gobardhanpur village in South 24 Parganas district of West Bengal, India, this article examines how people readjust themselves and remain voluntarily immobile instead of facing high vulnerability caused by different shocks or stresses. The empirical research was carried out with the help of both quantitative and qualitative research methods including household-level questionnaire survey, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. The findings show that whilst the region supports multiple occupations, fishing is the prime occupation of the people. During the monsoon period, diversification in terms of livelihood is low, as fishing supports maximum respondents. In contrast, low fish catch during the off-monsoon season is responsible for high livelihood diversification. Circular migration is a very common adaptive strategy to overcome the livelihood crisis during the off-monsoon season, especially amongst the younger members of the households. The remittances earned through circular migration supplement the household income and secure their livelihood. Moreover, institutional help, robust social networks and attachment to the place also play a role in controlling the decision of immobility.
Survey results by region: a Ecosystem services identified by interviewees in each study region, after responses were mapped to a consistent classification (see text). The spider plots show how often interviewees b identified different dimensions of human well-being (HWB) as being important and had observed changes in c different environmental categories (including climate lumped as one), d climate categories separated out, and e categories of climate change impact on HWB (all expressed as percentage of all substantive responses per study region, i.e., adding to 100%—for data see Online Resources 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, respectively)
Inequalities in benefits from ecosystem services (ES) challenge the achievement of sustainability goals, because they increase the vulnerability of socio-ecological systems to climate hazards. Yet the unequal effects of changes in ES, and of climate change more generally, on human well-being (HWB) are still poorly accounted for in decision-making around adaptation, particularly in tropical countries. Here, we investigate these dynamics through the lens of local peoples’ perceptions of ES in relation to human well-being (HWB), and how these are affected by climate change in three distinct regional case studies in the Atlantic Forest in Southeast of Brazil. Through structured questionnaires, we found that the local perceptions of important ES are region-dependent, particularly identifying services regulating local climate and air quality, water flow and quality, food provisioning, and cultural services of landscape esthetics related to forest regeneration. HWB was expressed through material (e.g., economic security, environmental conditions) and higher accounts of non-material (e.g., feelings, health and social connections) dimensions. Specific environmental changes were identified by 95% of those responding, 40% of whom included climate change as one of these. When asked about climate directly, 97% of those responding identified relevant changes in regionally relevant ways. Rising temperatures, unbalanced seasons, altered rainfall patterns, drought, increase of extreme events, and sea level rise are negatively affecting both material and non-material dimensions of HWB across regions. These perceived changes aligned with observed and projected climate changes in the regions. Benefits from ES accrue for HWB at different scales depending on the specific ES and region. For example, crop production by small farmers or exported in sugar cane, water captured for agricultural irrigation or used for urban supplies, and fish resources for local consumption and lifestyle or as a recreational attraction for visitors. Policy choices about such balances will affect local vulnerabilities to the expected future climate and other environmental changes in the region. This place fine-scale observations and the empowerment of local knowledge at the core of policy decisions about adaptation to support a climate-resilient future for traditional communities and small farmers.
Conceptual model of the direct (Path C) and indirect (Paths A-B) relationships between climate change beliefs and attitudes towards climate migrants. ACC = anthropogenic climate change. Distributive justice = support for distributive-justice based initiatives to accommodate climate migrants
Attitudes towards migrants and acculturation expectations for immigrants compared to climate migrants. Higher score indicates more positive attitudes or stronger expectations, adjusted for covariates. Covariates included age, education, income, political orientation, gender, ethnicity, and climate change reality. Error bars = 95% confidence intervals
Final empirical model of the direct and indirect relationships between belief in anthropogenic climate change (ACC) and attitudes towards climate migrants, including covariates. Numeric values indicate the strength of the associations between variables. Solid lines indicate significant relationships; dotted lines indicate the non-significant relationship when accounting for the mediation through distributive justice
As the effects of climate change begin to materialise across Pacific Island nations, many exposed communities are considering migrating away from their homelands. Migrants’ resettlement experiences can depend upon their reception in the host nation. However, it is unclear whether justice-based obligations will influence host attitudes toward climate migrants. Using an online survey of 238 Aotearoa New Zealanders, we explore how beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, climate justice and global responsibility contribute to public attitudes towards climate migrants. Overall, people thought more positively of immigrants in general than of climate migrants. Through moderated mediation analyses, we observed that people with stronger belief in anthropogenic climate change were more positive towards climate migrants. This pattern was related to people’s beliefs about climate justice and justice-based migration approaches. Findings suggest that host perceptions of climate migrants are connected to being aware of the ties between greenhouse gas emissions and migration. We outline anticipated challenges and potential opportunities for both migrant communities and the nations in which they seek refuge.
Study locations for deriving the factors for soil organic carbon change in pastures in Brazil
Soil organic carbon change factors (± 2 standard deviation) derived for 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 years of land use in the 0–30, 0–50 and 0–100 cm layers of the soil under degraded, nominal, improved and recovered pastures. The previous management for the degraded, nominal and improved pastures was native vegetation, whilst the previous management of the recovered pastures was degraded pasture
Response variables between soil organic carbon stocks under current management and soil organic carbon stocks under previous management grouped by the period of land use (≤ 20 and > 20 years) in degraded, nominal, improved and recovered pastures
Carbon emission and sequestration for degraded and recovered pasture a 64 Mha (degraded pastures estimated from LAPIG mapping) and b 30 Mha (from the ABC plan)
There are currently 180 million hectares under pasture in Brazil, and despite the country being one of the largest meat producers, there remain around 64 million hectares that show signs of degradation and contribute to the substantial loss of soil organic carbon (SOC). The aim of this study, therefore, was to derive the factors for SOC stock changes in managed pastures and evaluate the potential for SOC sequestration when converting degraded pastures to well-managed or recovered pastures in Brazil. The study involved 169 paired comparisons, including different types of pasture spread over 14 states in Brazil, and analysed the data in linear mixed-effect models deriving the SOC stock change factors for various soil depths (30 to 100 cm) over 30 years since the change in management. The results showed that for 30 years at a depth of 0–30 cm, compared to native vegetation, nominal pasture (non-degraded grassland, but with no significant management improvements) and improved pasture increased SOC stocks by 15% and 8%, whilst degraded pastures reduced the stocks by 10%. However, the recovery of degraded pastures enhances the SOC by 23%. In terms of the rates of SOC change, pasture degradation leads to losses of 0.25 Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, whilst nominal or recovered pastures can sequester SOC at rates from 0.25 to 0.54 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. Overall, it was estimated that the recovery of degraded pastures can sequester up to 3445 Tg of CO2. Nominal management or simple improvement practices can maintain or enhance SOC stocks, helping to mitigate the GHG emissions of livestock in Brazil.
A conceptual framework describing the process of change through empowerment. The diagram shows the numbered concepts (with core concepts in boxes) underlying a person or group’s decision to make change ultimately leading to the final outcome (orange box), and arrows indicate how the concepts are linked. Concepts and key linkages are described in main text (see corresponding circled numbers)
Examples of ideal qualities of individuals and groups, and the potential outcomes corresponding to each quality. These qualities were compiled by authors during one of the project workshops
Affecting behavioural change is a common underlying goal across environmental and agricultural sciences, from climate change mitigation and adaptation, biodiversity conservation, water management, to crop diversification. However, many projects fail to drive or sustain change despite sound science and good intentions. This paper draws on existing theories of behavioural change to construct a conceptual framework that explores pathways to initiate and sustain change through the lens of empowerment, self-efficacy and agency. The framework is demonstrated with case studies from a project in India and Bangladesh that examined social inclusion of marginalised and poor farmers in the context of intensifying agriculture. The framework and case studies highlight that a number of conditions are needed to affect meaningful change including that target beneficiaries are suitably motivated, believe in their own capability and power to enact change and have access to the necessary resources. We propose the framework as a tool to help project teams explore the underlying elements of the process of change when designing, implementing and assessing agricultural or environmental projects and interventions. We contend that behavioural and social change needs to be explicitly fostered in such endeavours to achieve better and longer-term outcomes for the people and environment. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-022-01939-7.
Geographical distribution of study sites. The gray area corresponds to the delimitation of the groundnut basin and dashed blue lines to isohyets according to Cesaro et al. (2010) and Lake & Touré (1985). The black dots depict the study sites and the blue numbers on the dotted lines are the values of each isohyet
Evolution of the 5-year moving average of millet and sorghum yields in Niakhar (panels a and b and e and f, respectively) and Toubacouta (c and d and g and h, respectively). The black curve represents the historical yields anomaly; the blue and red curves are the yields under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively, and the dotted gray vertical lines represent the reference period 1976–2005. The shading light blue and pink indicate the interquartile ensemble spread (range between the 10th and 90th percentiles) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively
Percentage change of short-cycle and long-cycle millet and sorghum cultivars around 2050. This percentage is relative to baseline climate from 1976–2005 to 2035 to 2065 simulated by SARRA–O. A Niakhar, B Toubacouta. Bottom and top of boxes: 25th and 75th percentiles, respectively; horizontal segment inside box: median; whiskers: minimum/maximum; full dots: outliers distributed over each study site
Effect of temperature and rainfall change on the growth cycle of short-cycle and long-cycle crops of millet and sorghum. Niakhar (A) and Toubacouta (B). Simulated by SARRA–O from the baseline climate 1976–2005 to 2035 to 2065 simulated by SARRA–O. Bottom and top of boxes: 25th and 75th percentiles, respectively; horizontal segment inside box: median; whiskers: minimum/maximum; full dots: outliers distributed over each site
Relative yield changes of millet and sorghum simulated by SARRA–O by 2050 relative to changes of rainfall (left) and absolute change of mean surface temperature (right). All values are shown on average for each of the 12 models of the ensemble simulation
Cereal production systems in semi-arid environments in Senegal are extensive and highly depend on weather and climate-related effects. Assessing climate change impacts on the main staple food crops is essential to ensure food security. This study aims to assess climate change impacts on millet and sorghum in Niakhar and Toubacouta, two locations in the Senegalese groundnut basin. Field experiment and climate data from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathways were used to simulate future crop yield and growth cycle length. For each crop, two varieties were considered, a short (90 days) and a long (120 days) maturation cycle. Projections made using the SARRA–O model showed a downward trend of crop yield for all considered varieties and scenarios. These results were, however, more pronounced for the short-cycle variety. In addition, the short-cycle variety showed greater variability in yield trends with larger confidence intervals. In Niakhar, millet and sorghum yield loss for short duration is estimated around 30% by 2050, while the long-cycle variety yield gap was less than 20% compared to the reference period yield (1976–2005). Millet and sorghum yield reduction by 2050 is less pronounced in Toubacouta with around 20%. A slight relationship was inferred between rainfall and yield change, whereas a significant negative linear relationship was inferred between temperature and yield change. The future impact of climate change on these cereals would be mainly a loss of yield induced by rising temperatures. Thus, a thorough consideration of temperature effects will be essential for better adapting cereal production to future climatic conditions.
Coffee-based farming systems (CBFS) support smallholder farmers through mainly coffee growing with integration of other food crops and livestock. Climate change is expected to ravage crop suitability in several agroecological zones, posing a threat to national earnings and livelihoods. However, previous studies have mainly considered crop-specific analyses rather than the major crops in a farming system. This study illustrates variations in climatic suitability of major crops grown in Uganda’s Arabica and Robusta CBFS at disaggregated altitudes. Climate data (1980–2009) was projected for 2010–2039 (near-term future) for five climate scenarios under Representative Concentration Pathways—RCP 8.5 and 4.5 using twenty-nine global climate models (GCMs) based on the delta method. Climatic suitability of coffee, banana, maize, and beans was assessed using EcoCrop model. Rainfall and temperature changes are expected during long rains and second-dry seasons, with higher rainfall increments during short rains. Minimum temperatures are likely to increase in low altitudes under ensemble-mean, hot-wet, and hot-dry scenarios. Crop suitability improvements (> 5% area) are expected in mid to high altitudes under cool-wet and hot-wet, mainly for RCP 4.5 while western Uganda Arabica CBFS are unlikely to experience crop suitability changes. Suitable area for East African banana and beans is likely to increase utmost 44.7%, and expected to decline to marginal utmost 64% (coffee and banana) and 21.2% (maize) in central Robusta and eastern Arabica CBFS under ensemble-mean, cool-dry, and hot-dry scenarios. Plantain and dessert banana are likely to become unsuitable within Robusta and high-altitude Arabica CBFS. This study recommends identification and use of system appropriate climate-smart adaptation strategies to mitigate future crop-climate vulnerabilities within CBFS.
Environmentally induced migration and mobility receives high attention in politics, media, and academia, even though non-migration is of much greater scale and probably the less understood phenomenon. The decision to leave or to stay put in an environmentally stressful region is a decision taken in the context of personal needs and aspirations, and uncertain survival and livelihood opportunities elsewhere. Information and expectations about migratory options and challenges are always incomplete, and whether migration, or rather non-migration, turns out as the personally more beneficial option depends on circumstances that are ex ante unknown and ex post not fully under control of the potential out-migrant. We argue that—despite exposure to severe environmental stress in a region—voluntary non-migration can be a viable outcome of a conscious but sometimes biased cognitive process. By highlighting the role of some relevant search and decision heuristics, we discuss why people around the globe decide to stay put in an environmentally stressful home region—despite favorable migratory options and sufficient resources for realizing opportunities elsewhere.
Localization of studied areas and points of soil collection in Quilombo Mesquita (NC1: native Cerradão, PP1: planted pasture, T1: citrus-cassava intercropping, and M1: conventional maize cultivation. NC2: native Cerrado stricto sensu, PP2: planted pasture, T2: citrus monoculture, and M2: conventional maize cultivation)
Cumulative total organic carbon (A and B) and total nitrogen (C and D) stock in the 0–60-cm layer in the different management systems in the phytophysiognomies Cerradão and Cerrado stricto sensu. NC1 and NC2: native Cerrado; M1 and M2: conventional maize; PP1 and PP2: planted pasture; T1: citrus – cassava intercropping and T2 citrus monoculture. Different letters indicate differences between the management systems within the same phytophysiognomy, at 5% significance by the Tukey–Kramer test (p ≤ 0.05). Bars indicate standard deviation. Quilombo Mesquita, State of Goiás, Brazil
Total organic carbon (A and B) and total nitrogen (C and D) stocks, in six layers of management systems in the Cerrado phytophysiognomies Cerradão and Cerrado stricto sensu. NC1 and NC2: native Cerrado; M1 and M2: conventional maize; PP1 and PP2: planted pasture; T1: citrus – cassava intercropping and T2 citrus monoculture. Lowercase letters compare the different management systems of a same phytophysiognomy within a same layer at 5% significance by the Tukey–Kramer test (p ≤ 0.05) and uppercase letters compare the layers within a same management system (p ≤ 0.05). Bars indicate standard deviation. Quilombo Mesquita, State of Goiás, Brazil
Quilombola communities found in the Cerrado region of Brazil are inhabited mainly by groups of African ancestry. They tend to use agricultural management without technical assistance, which degrades soil quality. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the carbon and nitrogen pools in the Quilombola areas under different soil management types. A crop sequence was evaluated in two native Cerrado areas: 1—Cerradão (NC1) and 2—Cerrado stricto sensu (NC2), as follows: planted pasture (PP1 and PP2); maize (M1 and M2); citrus-cassava intercropping (T1); and citrus monoculture (T2). The experiment was arranged in a completely randomized design with five replicates, and the plots were composed by the management systems, and the subplots were soil layers 0–10, 10–20, 20–30, 30–40, 40–50, and 50–60 cm. Conservation cultivation practices in T1 increased total organic carbon (TOC) stock (173 Mg ha⁻¹), compared with M1 (120 Mg ha⁻¹) and PP1 under conventional management (105 Mg ha⁻¹). Down to a soil depth of 20 cm, the total N (TN) stocks were 39% and 56% lower in NC1 and PP1, respectively, than under conventional management. In area 2, the TOC stocks were similar in all treatments (mean of 118 Mg ha⁻¹), and the cumulative TN stock down to the 50–60 cm layer was 10 Mg ha⁻¹. In the 0–20-cm layer, the N stock decreased by 15% under M2, while increases of 10% and 12% were observed in T2 and PP2, respectively. These results confirm that conservation management practices can increase carbon and nitrogen storage.
Individuals and communities socially construct risk, and societies with greater risk perception may be more apt to mobilize or adapt to emergent threats like climate change. Increasing climate change awareness is often considered necessary in the first stages of the adaptation process to manage its impacts and reduce overall vulnerability. Since agriculture is affected by climate change in several ways, farmers can provide first-hand observations of climate change impacts and adaptation options. This paper aims to identify the current research trends and set the future research agenda on climate change awareness, perceived impacts, and adaptive capacity from farmers’ experiences and behavior. We analyze a portfolio of 435 articles collected from WoS and Scopus databases between 2010-2020 using bibliometrics. From the original portfolio, we select 108 articles for a more comprehensive and systematic review. Publication trends and content analysis have been employed to identify influential work, delineate the mental structure of farmers’ beliefs and concerns, and identify main research gaps. The comprehensive analysis reported 1) farmers’ socio-demographic characteristics influencing farmers’ perceptions, 2) awareness and changing climate evidence due to human activity, 3) main perceived effects (rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and extreme events), 4) most relevant adaptation measures (crop changing and soil/water conservation techniques), and 5) factors and barriers limiting adaptation (lack of information, credit, and expertness). The review outlines the main gaps and their drivers to help future researchers, managers, and decision-makers to prioritize their actions according to farmers’ concerns and their adaptive capacity to reduce farming vulnerability.
Map of the Lehstenbach catchment, with catchment boundaries, stream, and wetland areas
The flow chart depicts how climate projection time series were prepared for hydrological model input. Precipitation data were corrected for snowmelt, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) was calculated after Priestly-Taylor. Discharge was calculated with the processed-based hydrological model HydroGeoSphere, which was already established for the catchment. Parameter determination and calibration (*for soil, vegetation, and transport), grid details, and microtopography are gray since they were not part of this study
Calibration and validation of the Lehstenbach catchment model from 11/2000 to 10/2006. Evaluation metrics show satisfactory results for log NSE, r², and PBIAS
Visual summary of water balance components averaged over 30 years for near (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100). The components are depicted as ranges (minimum to maximum) of all climate change projections, where the dotted lines show the near future range, and the solid lines the far future range. A averaged total monthly Precipitation (P) in [mm month-1], B averaged total monthly Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) in [mm month-1], C averaged total monthly Discharge (Q) in [mm month-1], and D averaged total monthly Storage deficit (∆ S) in [mm month-1]. Envelopes contain all climate change projections
Standardized Streamflow Index for all 19 simulations. Wet and dry conditions are marked by colors (blue and red, respectively). Black horizontal lines indicate index value 0 (drought ends), − 1 (drought begins) and − 2 (extreme drought begins)
Headwaters represent a significant fraction of the global stream length and are important for streamflow quality and quantity. Since climate change is predicted to affect runoff generation processes fundamentally, it is essential to understand potential consequences for the water availability in headwater catchments. The Lehstenbach catchment, located in the Fichtel Mountains (Germany), represents many headwater catchments in the lower mountain ranges in Central Europe. This study’s primary objective is to predict and analyze potential shifts in the catchment’s water balance, estimate periods of hydrological drought conditions, and their characteristics. For this purpose, we used an integrated process-based hydrological model to represent surface/groundwater interactions and runoff generation mechanisms for the Lehstenbach catchment until 2100, using a Regional Climate Model Ensemble. The simulations indicate decreased water availability in summer and autumn, mainly due to increased evapotranspiration rates. The Minimum Environmental Flow (MEF), a quantitative measure of aquatic species’ exposition to abnormally low streamflow conditions, implies an increase of low flow conditions towards 2100. A first estimate indicates a possible increase of hydrological drought duration and intensity in the future. These findings suggest severe impacts on ecosystem health and services, such as decreasing water availability, leading to consequences like forest and wetland degradation and declining biodiversity. These findings can be used to implement suitable mitigation strategies to reduce climate change effects on the headwater ecosystems, such as water shortage for irrigation and drinking water supply and loss of flora and fauna.
Contour maps of the real part of the drought (A) and flood (B) intensity wavelet coefficient from 1500 to 2015 (bold colors) and 2015 to 2050 (pale colors) for each sub-zone of NM, HN, and GZ (see Supplementary materials for details)
Recorded, fitted, and predicted drought (A) and flood (B) intensity values from the ARIMA (1, 1, 60) models for each sub-zone of NM, HN, and GZ from 1500 to 2015 (before the bold black vertical line) and 2015 to 2050 (after the bold black vertical line)
Predicted drought intensities in 2050 computed using the BC, GS, and MI climate change models from the CMIP5 simulations under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The red, yellow, and green colors indicate high, moderate, and low drought intensities, respectively
Predicted flood intensities in 2050 computed using the BC, GS, and MI climate change models from the CMIP5 simulations under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The red, yellow, and green colors indicate high, moderate, and low flood intensities, respectively
In this study, the intensities of droughts and floods in three provinces of China are projected using three approaches: wavelet analysis, auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, and random tree (RT) models based on a 500-year time series. The motivation for this work was the observation that drought/flood intensities are generally increasing, the prediction of drought/flood intensities for the next 50 years, along with their future spatiotemporal patterns. Based on the three approaches, with few exceptions, the results reveal a likely increasing trend for both droughts and floods, with higher intensity under the RCP8.5 scenario for droughts and the RCP4.5 scenario for floods by the year 2050. Notwithstanding this worsening trend, it was found that drought/flood intensities for most regions are projected to neither entirely increase nor entirely decrease in the near future. Drought and flood intensities may alternatively occur on a multi-year or a decadal timescale. Inner Mongolia, located in an arid temperate climate zone, is projected to experience a higher average disaster intensity, followed by the warm monsoon region of Henan, while the humid subtropical region of Guizhou is projected to be the least affected, with high spatial heterogeneity within each region. Climate variation, particularly temperature range and deviation across either the coldest or wettest months, was closely associated with drought/flood intensities. We conclude that the major challenge for drought/flood prediction is not the general change trends or their responses to climate change, but the spatiotemporal heterogeneity at multiple scales.
The proportion of articles each month containing diagnostic, prognostic, and motivational frames throughout the water crisis
Proximity matrix of the co-occurrence of codes between problem and solution frames and the FEW nexus, measured by the number of frames that contain both codes for that cell for the matrix
The 2018 water crisis in Cape Town, South Africa, captured the attention of international media outlets as the city faced the possibility of running out of water. Examining this media provides an opportunity to understand the framing of the water crisis, which can provide valuable insights into what society and policymakers consider important. Media analysis can also examine the framing of the impacts of the crisis; with strong interlinkages between food, energy, and water resources, the water crisis directly impacted other resource sectors. To explore the media perspective on the crisis and its impacts across the food and energy sectors, the research here uses content analysis to analyze news articles about the water crisis. We analyze the framing of the problems and solutions to the water crisis and the framing of food-energy-water nexus interactions and impacts. Our results show that the media framed the water crisis as being caused by drought, politics, poor management, and overuse of water, while it presented the proposed solutions of reducing demand and increasing water supply through technological solutions. Additionally, the media framing shows a major impact of the water crisis on the agriculture sector and a strong reliance on energy-intensive technical solutions to address the water crisis, suggesting potential unintended consequences within the food and energy sectors without direct consideration of their intersections. We conclude that the media framing may suggest a mismatch between causes and solutions, as the media rarely presented improving governance and management as potential solutions, yet identified poor governance as a cause of the crisis.
The indigenous lands (ILs) from the Brazilian Amazon are in constant threat, especially regarding deforestation. This research aims to assess whether deforestation occurring outside ILs, in their Area of Direct Influence (ADI), influences the removal of vegetation within their areas, in the period from 1988 to 2021. We applied a log–log linear regression with deforestation data obtained by remote sensing. The results revealed that deforestation in the ADI was approximately eight times higher than deforestation inside the ILs. Additionally, deforestation inside the ILs grows at a 2/1 ratio, that is, a 1% increase in deforestation outside of the ILs can increase by about 0.47% the deforestation inside of them.
Location map of French Polynesia archipelagos. Shaded grey represents the ocean with various bottom depths. Only some island names are represented, for location purpose
Schematic policy landscape of (coastal) risk reduction policies in French Polynesia. Note that Risk Prevention Plans have implications on land use and prevail over other plans and regulatory documents
A synthesis of the results of this study. The blue and purple colors are used only to highlight the conclusions for P1 and P2, respectively
Sea-level projections from the Church et al. (2013) and Oppenheimer et al. (2019) downscaled to Tahiti for 3 scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, roughly corresponding to 2 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3 °C of global warming). The dark lines illustrate a low-probability/high-impact high-end sea-level scenario involving large ice melting. Methods: see Slangen et al. (2012). High-end scenario assumption: See Thiéblemont et al. (2019)
The marine flooding hazard-prone areas framing used in the Risk Prevention Plans (PPR). Based on underlying reports by the Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières released in 2003 and 2013
This paper discusses whether existing coastal risk reduction policies in French Polynesia—a French Overseas Territory with a high degree of political autonomy—(i) consider current and future coastal risks from climate variability and change, and (ii) are designed to evolve as new knowledge on climate change emerges. The analysis relies on the study of risk-relevant policy documents and considers Coastal risk integration (i.e. extent to which coastal hazards and associated impacts are considered) and Adjustability (i.e. potential for the policy documents to be adjusted over time) as proxy outcomes for climate change policy integration more broadly. The results show that there are still important gaps relating to an insufficient incorporation of climate-related coastal hazards into the existing policy documents, and to difficulties in both implementing these documents and making them more climate change-compatible. While recent examples on the ground provide encouraging early signs towards more adjustable local policies, they are to date too time- and/or space-bounded to represent any real shift at the territory level.
Phytogeographic subdivisions of SW and Central Asia and adjacent areas (Djamali et al. 2012; modified)
Dendrogram illustrating the assignment of vegetation samples identified by TWINSPAN to a particular vegetation type
Diversity metrics of paradise vegetation: a functional diversity measured Rao’s quadratic entropy; b community weighted means of fruiting duration; c overall species richness; d edible species richness; e medicine species richness, and f forage species richness. A dotted line indicates the mean value of the diversity metric for the entire data set, a dashed line—the median for the entire data set. The p-values for Kruskal–Wallis tests are shown. Multiple comparisons between each of vegetation types were made against the base median of all plots in the dataset and significant differences were marked with asterisks
Photos of vegetation referring to the Garden of Eden: aPistacia khinjuk groves near Ramhormoz, Iran; bPistacia vera groves near Kishti-Poyen, Tajikistan; cPunica granatum shrubs near Kishti-Poyen, Tajikistan
Changes in distributions of potential suitable areas between different time periods for 3 most probable candidates of Eden’s vegetation: a–c, jPistacia khinjuk groves; d–f, kPistacia vera groves; g–i, lPunica granatum shrubs. a-i Changes in spatial distribution; j–l changes in suitable distributional ranges (km²)
The search for the Garden of Eden has been going on for centuries. However, no one has yet attempted to associate it with the occurrence of a specific natural type of vegetation. We are also not aware what its current state and chances of survival are. In this work, we try to define the vegetation of Paradise, to visualize its past and predict its future in a climate-changing world. We selected 941 vegetation samples meeting the criteria extracted from biblical descriptions and assigned them to 12 different woody and grove vegetation types. Based on the analysis of functional traits (the fruiting type as well as the start, end and duration of the fruiting and flowering season), taxonomic and ethnobotanical diversity, we found that the most probable archetype of Eden's vegetation is the Pistacia khinjuk grove. The identification and preservation of the vegetation in which Man found safe shelter at the dawn of civilization is of fundamental importance for all humanity, and thus, we model its past extent and future perspectives. We found that Adam and Eve's refuge may disappear during our children's lifetime.
Map of the study area
Sample distribution across sociodemographic characteristics. Black boxes: total sample. Grey boxes: locals. Crossed boxes: tourists
Average rank values for a ecosystem services, b impacts and c threats. The difference between b and c is shown in d. Ecosystem services range from 1 to 6 and impacts and threats range from 1 to 8. A number closer to “1” in a, b and c means more beneficial/impactful/threatening than higher values. In graph d, zero represents no change; positive numbers are the ones with a lower average in threats than impacts, whilst the negative values mean the opposite. Average = black circles (total sample), diamonds (locals) and squares (tourists). Median = red crosses. Standard deviation is shown in vertical bars. Significant p-values from the Kruskal–Wallis rank sum test within locals and tourists: (*) = p < 0.05, (**) = p < 0.01. Pro Bio: protection and preservation of biodiversity. Cli Reg: climate regulation. Food: food provision, Coast Prot: coastal protection. Aesth: aesthetic value. Rec&Tou: recreation and tourism. IP: inland pollution discharging in the sea, CC: climate change, PB: people’s irresponsible behaviour, MT: mass tourism, CCM: coastal construction and modification, OF: overfishing, HDB: habitat degradation due to boat transit and anchoring, IMS: invasive marine species
Direct human pressure on Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) adds to climate change impacts on marine habitats, especially in coastal biodiversity hot spots. Understanding MPA user perception towards the Coastal marine Habitats (CMHs) could improve awareness of the challenges that such areas have to face, eventually providing insights for the design of conservation and tourism management plans. We studied perception of ecosystem services, impacts and threats of CMHs by locals and tourists (n = 624) of Cap de Creus MPA (NW Mediterranean Sea). Overall, we found that perceptions of tourists and locals are similar. Respondents perceived that CMHs provide valuable regulating services, and they assigned less value to cultural services. Locals valued the food provision ecosystem service of CMHs significantly more than tourists, probably because of the historical importance of fisheries for subsistence. Respondents ranked marine pollution of inland origin, climate change and people’s behaviour towards nature as the most impactful and threatening to CMHs, and invasive marine species as the least. Respondents also perceived that climate change impacts would increase soon, whilst the impact of people’s behaviour towards nature would decrease. Tourists perceived mass tourism as significantly more impactful and threatening to CMHs than locals did. Overall, our study shows that conservation of CMHs is highly valued, so more effort needs to be directed toward this goal.
Location of coffee growing districts in the Western Ghats belt of South India where field work was conducted
Diagrammatic representation of the coffee crop cycle in India (
source: based on discussions with the scientists at the Central Coffee Research Institute, Balehonnur, Chikmaglur, Karnataka)
Scenario analysis of coffee growers’ decision-making process to invest or not-to invest in irrigation (sprinkler or rain-guns) and insurance (RISC). Key to the symbols used in the flowchart: α (investment made), O (investment not made), ¥ (returns received), × (returns not received). In the final scenarios highlighted through darkened boxes a greater number of α signify higher investment and thus higher financial stakes whereas a greater number of × represent failure in receiving returns on the investment. Therefore, scenarios with maximum number of α× are riskiest whereas scenarios with maximum with O¥ are least risky
Growers preference between irrigation and insurance (
source: based on survey response gathered during fieldwork)
Blossom cover in RISC for Arabica coffee in Aldur zone Chikmaglur district, 2015.
This paper argues the need to situate the climate change narrative in lived everyday life for conceptualizing adaptation strategies. Climate change in its dominant narrative talks of global risks while it is the local risks experienced in everyday life which adaptation needs to address. This paper engages with this challenge using the specific case study of coffee growers in South India and focuses on two strategies available to them to address their rainfall risk: irrigation (sprinkler and rain-guns) and rainfall insurance. The paper unpacks growers' decision-making process to invest or not to invest in insurance and irrigation and showcases that even though variation in rainfall is a significant concern for the growers still investing in neither of the two strategies (insurance and rain-gun irrigation) or only in sprinkler irrigation remains the most preferred decision scenarios. The paper argues that rain-gun irrigation and insurance reconfigure growers' relation with rainfall. In this reconfigured relation, the agency is removed from growers and passed on to a scientifically calibrated assessment of rainfall. Growers' reluctance to buy into these schemes, thus, is indicative of their reluctance to buy into the reconfigured system where the agency of knowledge has been removed from them and passed on to the scientific assessments. In a situated context, thus, climate change for coffee growers in South India is an issue of agency and trust. Therefore, thinking through adaptation strategies for addressing the situated narrative of climate change challenge would require opening the process of calibrating rainfall for insurance to gain growers' trust. Additionally, making science more inclusive of lived experiences on the ground.
Conceptual framework
Study region
Adaptation choices by farmers (description about variables can be found in the “Identifying adaptation measures to climate change” section). Abbreviations: SDC, short duration crops; DRC, drought resistant crops; Diversification, crop diversification; Increase_CA, increase in cropped area; Drip_irrigation, using pipes to carry water; Livestock, availability of livestock; Groundwater, availability of groundwater; CI_benefit, benefit of crop insurance; PHD: change in planting and harvesting dates
Relative importance of adaptation strategies towards crop loss. Abbreviations: Cropped_area_increase, increase in cropped area; DRC, drought resistant crops; GW_Irrigation, availability of groundwater; Diversify, crop diversification; CI_benefit, benefit of crop insurance; Drip_Irr, drip irrigation; SDC, short duration crops; PHD, change in planting and harvesting dates; FERT, fertilizers; Livestock_keep, availability of livestock
Inevitability of climate change and stressors such as insects, pests, scarcity of water resources, and poor socio-economic condition of farmers have led to a substantial reduction in crop yield across the Indian subcontinent. The farming community follows adaptation measures to deal with these multiple stressors. Sometimes following the adaptation measures leads to a detrimental impact on crop yield, land, and soil quality. This raises the question of the effectiveness of these adaptation measures, that is, whether these strategies have enough potential to deal with the multiple stressors (climate, insects, water scarcity) or not. It requires a closer examination of the negative consequences of these adaptation measures, which is missing in the literature. To fill this gap, the current study assesses the success or failure of an agricultural adaptation strategy followed by identification of the relative importance of each strategy from the crop-loss perspective. We used logit model to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation measures i.e., crop diversification, sowing drought resistant, short duration crop varieties, drip irrigation, livestock rearing, crop insurance, use of groundwater for irrigation, increase in cropped area, and change in planting/harvesting dates towards crop loss of 400 farmers surveyed across Vidarbha and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra, India. Evaluation of adaptation strategies reveals that the highly practiced adaptation strategies, namely, crop diversification, sowing short duration, and drought resistant crop varieties turned out to be detrimental for crop productivity, while migration and increase in the cropped area benefit the farmers by reducing the crop loss. Findings emphasize that a thorough understanding of the repercussions of an adaptation strategy is required before implementation. Outcome of the study can facilitate the government and other decision-making agencies in prioritizing one strategy over another.
Estimated CO2 and CH4 site emissions and global warming potential (GWP) of temperate European fen paludiculture types based on GESTs. Positive fluxes denote net emissions to the atmosphere. Due to a lack of data for woody vegetation no emission values for Alnus were included, even though Alnus is known to be peat preserving under high water tables (Barthelmes 2009). For comparison, also CO2 and GWP (excluding N2O) values for drained cropland and grassland based on UBA (2020) are given (see Online Resource 2 for details of soil moisture classes (6 + very wet, 5 + wet, 4 + very moist))
Paludiculture classes for agriculturally used peatlands in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany (see Table 1 for more details)
Peatlands in the European Union are largely drained for agriculture and emit 25% of the total agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. Drainage-based peatland use has also negative impacts on water quality, drinking water provision and biodiversity. Consequently, key EU environmental policy objectives include the rewetting of all drained peatlands as an essential nature-based solution. Rewetting of peatlands can be combined with site-adapted land use, so-called paludiculture. Paludiculture produces biomass from wet and rewetted peatlands under conditions that maintain the peat body, facilitate peat accumulation and can provide many of the ecosystem services associated with natural, undrained peatlands. The biomass can be used for a wide range of traditional and innovative food, feed, fibre and fuel products. Based on examples in Germany, we have analysed emerging paludiculture options for temperate Europe with respect to greenhouse gas fluxes, biodiversity and indicative business economics. Best estimates of site emission factors vary between 0 and 8 t CO 2 eq ha ⁻¹ y ⁻¹ . Suitability maps for four peatland-rich federal states (76% of total German peatland area) indicate that most of the drained, agriculturally used peatland area could be used for paludiculture, about one-third of the fen area for any paludiculture type. Fen-specific biodiversity benefits from rewetting and paludiculture, if compared to the drained state. Under favourable conditions, paludiculture can be economically viable, but costs and revenues vary considerably. Key recommendations for large-scale implementation are providing planning security by paludiculture spatial planning, establishing best practice sites and strengthening research into crops, water tables and management options.
Sea level rise (SLR) due to global climate change negatively impacts coastal zones, in particular wetland and mangrove ecosystems. Mangroves in the Mekong Delta (MD) in Vietnam provide critical ecosystem services in the region; however, escalated relative SLR is likely to affect all ecosystems in the region, with mangroves probably more vulnerable than others. Given the fact that documented information and studies on SLR impacts on mangroves are limited for the region, this study aims to investigate potential changes in mangrove distribution in response to future SLR scenarios in the coastal area in the south of the MD using the Sea Level Affects Marshes Model (SLAMM). Wetland maps for 2013 derived from Landsat 8 OLI sensor, digital elevation model (DEM), and localized site-specific parameters (i.e., subsidence/accretion, erosion, historic trend of SLR, and over-wash) were used as input for the SLAMM to simulate spatial distribution of mangroves under different relative SLR scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, more extreme SLR), and surface elevation change (i.e., subsidence, stable, and accretion) scenarios by the year 2100. Simulation results show that the average annual mangrove losses are likely to be 0.54% and 0.22% for subsidence and stable scenarios, respectively. The findings demonstrate the considerable impacts of SLR on MD mangrove ecosystems and the strong influence of subsidence processes. Inundation was also identified as a main driver responsible for the mangrove loss by the end of this century. Our results are in agreement with findings of other studies at global scales and observed data at regional scales. The results also demonstrate the potential of the approach developed herein for simulating mangrove dynamics under future relative SLR scenarios in the region with acceptable accuracy. The findings from the present study are useful sources for development of proper strategies for minimizing the impacts of SLR on mangrove ecosystems and their vital associated services, to protect and conserve the mangrove ecosystems in the region.
Map of the study site (MxMBC), spanning a 17,199 km² area of the MBC in Mexico between the Calakmul and Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserves in the Southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The MxMBC comprises 156 ejidos across (light grey outlines) 5 municipalities (dark grey outlines, numbered)
A 3-step cartographic model used to classify 18 different patterns of forest regeneration dynamics from 8 individual forest non-forest cover maps. Empty squares shown in the regenerated pixel dynamics diagram of step 3 represent non-forest
The annual rate of proportional forest cover loss and gain (km²a⁻¹) is plotted across seven time intervals between 2000 and 2020 along the primary axis. The annual deforestation rate (%) for each of the seven time intervals is plotted along the secondary axis, where positive values indicate afforestation and negative values indicate deforestation
Patterns of forest regeneration in the MxMBC within complex landscape mosaics of core forest, and agricultural landcovers in both 2000 and 2020. Patterns of permanent and ephemeral forest regeneration are seen widely distributed in small, disparate regenerating forest cover patches across the study site. All landscape regeneration patterns can be found in landscape matrices where large, intensified, agricultural landcovers have expanded into forest core since 2000 (A), as well as in landscape matrices where smaller more extensive agricultural land covers have not expanded into forest core since 2000 (B). The 2020 Landsat 8 OLI satellite image is shown for both A and B regions for additional landscape context
The distribution statistically significant differences in total forest regeneration and forest configuration indices for ejidos of 5 municipalities of the MxMBC. A shows statistically larger percentage of total regeneration (permanent, CEA, CMA, and CLA regeneration patterns combined) in ejidos of Othón P. Blanco than those of all other municipalities. B shows statistically larger changes to core forest index (2000–2020) in ejidos of Othón P. Blanco than those of José Maria Morelos, Felipe Carrillo Puerto, and Calakmul. C shows statistically larger increases in fragmentation index (2000–2020) in ejidos of Othón P. Blanco than those of José Maria Morelos, Felipe Carrillo Puerto, and Calakmul
Forest dynamics in the Mexican Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MxMBC) have been part of a land sharing system, helping maintain forest cover following semi-subsistence land-use through regeneration. Recently, mechanized cash-crop cultivation is occurring, translated in larger, permanent tracts of agriculture in place of core forest. This emerging land-use marks a potential shift in regeneration patterns, with implications for the maintenance of forest cover. We characterize MxMBC forest regeneration patterns from 2000 to 2020 to assess their relationship with the maintenance and expansion of forest cover. Classification of multi-temporal remotely sensed Landsat data reveals a decrease of 2.2% (296 km²) of forest area from 2000 to 2020, with regrowth making back 0.93% of forest (121 km²) by 2020. A spatial model identifies that 75.1% of forest regeneration in the study site occurs in four patterns ranging from permanent (89.2 km², 41.7%) to ephemeral (71.5 km², 33.4%). Analyzing the relation between landscape configuration and forest regeneration shows that regrowth occurs in small, widely dispersed forest patches. Spatial patterns of ephemeral regeneration mark two distinct land sharing contexts — ephemeral regeneration buffering core forest loss alongside semi-subsistence agriculture and agroforestry, and ephemeral regeneration masking core forest loss alongside cash crop agriculture. These cases suggest that maintaining forest cover through regeneration is impacted by land-use context, as the regeneration to core forest ratio decreases when permanent cash crop cultivation emerges.
Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) stock change rates (Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) in dairy cow grasslands in municipalities in northern Spain
a Soil organic carbon (SOC) change rate in relation to carbon inputs derived from dairy manure on grasslands associated with dairy production in northern Spain; b Carbon inputs derived from dairy manure in relation to livestock density on grasslands associated with dairy production in northern Spain
Net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per area in Mg CO2-e ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ for municipalities in northern Spain
a Relationship of livestock density with soil organic carbon (SOC) change rate (light grey) and total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (dark grey); b Net greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) per livestock unit (LU) in relation to livestock density
Predicting the regional net greenhouse gas emissions (Net GHG) of grasslands is increasingly important, as these are one of the most globally widespread vegetation types, providing several ecosystem services. In this study, we assessed the regional soil organic carbon (SOC) change over a 30-year period (1981–2010), and the annual GHG balance for 405,000 ha of moist temperate Spanish grassland associated with dairy cow production. To do this we used the following: (i) an integrated modelling framework comprising geographic information systems (GIS); (ii) the RothC model to simulate SOC changes in managed grasslands under moist temperate conditions; and (iii) Tier 2 recent IPCC methods to estimate emissions. The results showed an average regional SOC change rate of 0.16 Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, associated with the initial SOC and livestock density. The annual GHG balance was positive, contributing to global warming by 5.6 Mg CO2-e ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. Livestock density was the main factor affecting net GHG emissions in the grasslands associated with dairy production in northern Spain. We determined a livestock density threshold of 0.95 LU ha⁻¹, below which there is no SOC accumulation, and a threshold of approximately 0.4 LU ha⁻¹, above which net GHG per livestock unit (LU) are reduced. In conclusion, our study confirms the importance of dairy cow grazing systems in preserving and/or enhancing SOC stocks in the grasslands of northern Spain. It is therefore crucial to optimise the livestock density considering large variety of feed intake and alternative manure management mitigation options to reduce the net GHG emissions.
Pakistan has an agriculture-dependent economy vulnerable to climate impacts. Within Pakistan, Punjab province is a leading regional producer of food and cash crops, and an exporter of agricultural commodities of significance in South Asia. Punjab agriculture provides livelihoods for agriculture-dependent communities living in one of the most populous countries of the world and these will be disrupted under incremental climate changes (e.g. rising temperatures) and the impacts of extreme climate events (such as droughts and floods). Climate impact assessments and mapping are widely accepted initial approaches to address climate change as they have the potential to facilitate bottom-up adaptation. However, to date, policy responses in Pakistan have tended to be top-down, driven by national adaptation planning processes. This paper assesses agricultural vulnerability to impacts of climate events at the district scale for Punjab province by developing maps of the individual components of vulnerability, i.e. exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. An indicator-based approach using a composite index method was adopted for the assessment. The mapping separated and categorised districts in Punjab based on their vulnerability to climate change and revealed spatial patterns and factors influencing district-level vulnerability. These geospatial variations in vulnerability illustrate the need for a nuanced policy on adaptation that recognises the importance of local biophysical and socio-economic context to build adaptive capacity for vulnerable regions rather than the current concentration on broad-scale top-down action embedded in National Adaptation Plans.
Regional setting of rivers on the Amazon-influenced Guiana Shield coast between the mouths of the Amazon in the east and those of the Orinoco in the west. The main map shows the catchments of a selection of the larger rivers. The red imprints on the shoreline represent the alongshore-migrating mud banks and their mud plumes defined from 2017 MODIS satellite images. See text for explanation of river types 1 to 3
Satellite images (2021 Sentinel 1, ©ESA) of a selection of Guiana Shield river mouths depicting their morphological plan-view diversity. The river mouths have been categorized into three types: (a) type 1a associated with large bedrock-engulfed muddy capes oriented nearly S–N in western Brazil and eastern French Guiana, and bedrock headland-controlled small type 2 river mouths in French Guiana; (b, c, d) type 2 b alluvial river mouths variably diverted eastward by muddy spits or large mud capes, sometimes associated with larger type 3 river mouths (e); (f, g) type 3 river mouths oriented normal to the coast and associated with large rivers, from the French Guiana-Suriname border to Guyana
Simple classification of Guiana Shield river mouths and schematic elements of their morpho-sedimentary dynamics
An example of the drastic shoreline changes that have affected the mouth of the type 1b Mana River over 60 years. These changes have involved significant erosion of Pointe Isère, the large mud cape that had diverted the river westwards towards the mouth of the larger neighbouring Maroni River since at least the nineteenth century
The mouths of the rivers on the 1500-km-long Guianas coast, South America, are strongly influenced by large mud banks migrating alongshore from the Amazon River. To probe this influence, a river-mouth morphological classification scheme was carried out from satellite images, complemented by data from rare previous studies of estuarine hydrodynamics. The classification highlights a variety of morphological and dynamic river-mouth types that are further influenced by both fluvial water discharge and fluvial catchment rock type. Three basic types are identified: (1) river mouths diverted westward by capes and spits built from multi-decadal to multi-millennial accumulation of mud supplied by the Amazon; among these, mouths close to the Amazon are fixed by bedrock surrounded by mud; (2) small river mouths in French Guiana fixed by outcrops of Precambrian rocks that form headlands devoid of Amazon mud; and (3) large river mouths characterized by high water discharge that imparts an orientation normal to the coast; the largest two belonging to this type (the Essequibo in Guyana and the Maroni on the border between French Guiana and Suriname) exhibit infilled mouths that are transitioning towards deltas. These river mouths show a tropical seasonal estuarine circulation regime strongly influenced by Amazon mud. The influence of mud from the distant Amazon constitutes a unique aspect of the river mouths on the Guianas coast. Field and modelling studies in the future will be needed in order to achieve better characterization of the influence of Amazon mud on the estuarine circulation systems and of the distribution of sediment types within these river mouths, including sand supplied by the rivers.
Location of Montaimont and the “Loup lake” in the Northern French Alps (a), with the bathymetry and the position of the sediment core in the lake (b), a photograph of the lake (c), the geology of the catchment (d) and the vegetation of the town of Montaimont and the Loup lake catchment from land use and land cover data in 2016 (e)
Reconstitution of landscape changes, in terms of erosion dynamic (occurrence and thickness of flood deposits; titanium X-ray fluorescence (XRF) in counts per second) and vegetation cover (including crop history; pollen analyses) as well as pastoral activities history (Non-Pollen Palynomorphs analyses). The black stars mean that the samples were low in pollen numbers or very high in spores of Sporormiella sp. a Comparison of the distribution of tree species between 1893 and 2007, according to French Forest Administration forest reports. Empty pie charts in 2007 correspond to missing data in the reports (b) land use and land cover mapping between the 1950s and 2016 (c). Erosion change from the RUSLE model between the 1950s and 2016 (d). Population changes over time (e). The dashed lines covering graphs (a) and (e) correspond to the dates of the historical and land use and land cover analyses. The three coloured areas across the figure refer to the three periods identified in the results and highlight the tipping points in the social-ecological system history
Simplified social-ecological system feedback loop including data cross-referencing by disciplines
The trajectories of mountain socio-ecosystems are complex and influenced by numerous factors (climate, human practices, slope, etc.). This study combined methods used in palynology, ecology and history to produce complementary data to improve understanding of the trajectories of an alpine socio-ecosystem over the last 500 years. Past changes in vegetation cover and land use were reconstructed along with their impacts on erosion dynamics in Montainmont, a commune in the French Alps. A paleoenvironmental analysis (pollen, coprophilous fungi, sedimentology, geochemistry) was conducted on lake sediment, providing a 500-year record of vegetation and erosion dynamics, and mixed farming history. The historical analysis focused on the reconstruction of the customs and habits of the community of Montaimont through the examination of the historical archives of their administrative district. The historical records provided quantitative data on changes in the forest at the plot scale and qualitative information on landscape management. The ecological approach focused on land use analyses using photo-interpretation of aerial ortho-photographs since the 1950s. This data set was used to conduct a spatially explicit analysis of social-environmental interactions in the past. By combining the three approaches, we were able to document changes in vegetation cover over time as well as changes in forestry and agricultural activities. Our analyses reveal a key tipping point during the past century. The community of Montaimont originally used its landscape for mixed farming activities coupled with intensive exploitation of the forest. During the twentieth century, a major socio-ecological change occurred when crop farming ceased, and forest use decreased. This land abandonment led to spontaneous reforestation. This study demonstrates that an interdisciplinary approach bridges the blind spots inherent to each disciplinary approach, facilitating a better understanding of socio-ecological trajectories.
Graphic representation of the stress factors from French Guiana. Hg from gold mining and soil erosion is converted into MeHg, which bioaccumulates and biomagnifies within food webs. Adult frigatebird exposed to high Hg contamination may suffer its toxic effects at the physiological level (e.g. reduced parental care). Furthermore, frigatebirds are likely facing food shortage due to the decline in discards associated with shrimp trawlers and may struggle to provide food to their chicks
Schematic representation of the hypotheses that might explain the occurrence of clinical signs of a viral disease in this population. Contaminants may directly affect the health status of chicks by decreasing immunity and increasing physiological stress (HYPOTHESIS 1). Nutritional stress caused either indirectly by the effect of environmental contaminants on parental care of adults (HYPOTHESIS 2) or directly due to the decrease in fishery discards from shrimp trawlers (HYPOTHESIS 3). However, the most probable explanation is that frigatebirds are under a cumulative effect of nutritional stress and exposure to environmental contaminants (MAIN HYPOTHESIS). The letters in the box refer to what has already been done in previous years
Environmental contaminants pose a global threat to humans and biodiversity conservation worldwide. Yet little is known about contaminant levels in tropical seabird communities located in key biodiversity points. French Guiana is a hotspot of biodiversity and is one of the regions experiencing a rampant increase in mercury (Hg) contamination. This review has the objective to summarize the results of (i) previous work on Hg contamination in seabirds from French Guiana and (ii) already published work on other environmental contaminant sources as persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Furthermore, previous research on Grand Connétable island, a key breeding site for Caribbean seabirds, reported high blood Hg concentrations in several seabirds, reaching the threshold of possible health concern for some species, particularly for the magnificent frigatebird Fregata magnificens. Because frigatebirds are experiencing massive mortality events of chicks caused by a herpesvirus disease that first appeared in 2005, this review further discusses a potential synergistic or additive interaction between food availability and Hg exposure in determining the recurrent disease outbreaks, a topic that has been often neglected in the literature. Here, we (i) summarize already published results from several years of research on this topic and (ii) suggest a potential connection between the occurrence of infectious diseases and cumulative effects of environmental stressors in marine top predators including birds, which clearly deserves further investigations. We also highlight the lack of studies on other sources of local pollution rather than Hg, and the need to take into consideration the cumulative effects of stressors on the health status of organisms, rather than focus on individual stressors or specific contaminants.
The Sudd in South Sudan, formed by the White Nile's Baḥr al-Jabal section, is one of the largest and most important wetlands in the world. Communities in the region almost exclusively depend on fisheries for food and livelihoods. Although threatened by over-exploitation and habitat changes, fish populations are also affected by climate change. Using semi-structured questionnaires, we assessed fisherfolk’s opinions of how recent variation in climate affected their livelihoods and the environment. Fisherfolk perceived that climate had changed in the past decade and were negatively impacted by this. Interviewees reported average higher temperatures, a greater frequency of floods and droughts, unpredictable timing of seasons, and erratic rainfall. Destruction of fishing villages/camps, loss and damage of fishing equipment, shifts in the fishing calendar, reduction of fish trade, fish catch declines as well as psycho-social problems were given as the major consequences of climate change. Causes of climate change and variability were perceived to be linked to uncontrolled harvest of forest resources, anger of G-d and ancestors, and natural variability in climate. Most respondents expressed a desire to adopt more responsible behavior such as plantings trees and establishing community nurseries, being educated on climate change risks and sustainable fisheries management. Our results show that fisherfolk in the Sudd are troubled by climate change impacts on their livelihoods and on fish populations. Based on our information, further research and more focused conservation management of the Sudd wetlands are needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
Map of Central and South America richspots. a Biodiversity hotspots; b Terrestrial Global 200 ecoregions; c Freshwater Global 200 ecoregions. Areas in black have no richspots. See Supplementary Table 1 for a full list of richspots’ names and correspondence between biodiversity hotspots and Global 200 ecoregions
Maps of number of risk projections and mean projected annual risk impact in richspots. a Number of risk projections per richspot. Note that the majority of Global 200 ecoregions has fewer than 50 risk projections. b Mean projected annual risk impact per richspot. Note that the only richspots with enough data to derive mean effects were biodiversity hotspots. See Fig. 1 for names of each richspots and Supplementary Table 1 for the raw numbers shown in the figure for each richspot
Climate change impacts on different aspects of biodiversity in Central and South America (CSA). a Mean projected annual risk impact (dots) with confidence intervals (error bars, 95% confidence intervals) for the whole CSA region, for different species types, geographic regions and types of change on biodiversity. Numbers in parentheses represent the number of risk projections and number of studies from which means were derived. Asterisks (*) indicate that all categories within Type of species, Geography and Type of Change are significantly different from each other, according to the GLMMs tests (please refer to Supplementary Table 4 for all statistical results). b Mean projected annual risk impact (bars) with confidence intervals (error bars, 95% confidence intervals), within different warming levels: under compliance to the Paris Agreement keeping temperature < 2 °C (blue), and under Business as Usual trends, letting temperature rise > 2 °C (red). Overall, the risks for biodiversity in the CSA were reduced from − 0.58 to − 0.11% with compliance with the Paris Agreement, representing a risk-reduction of 80% magnitude. Significant differences between both warming levels arise in islands and mountains in the GLMMs, which are indicated with asterisks (*) (see Supplementary Table 4 for all statistical results)
Climate change impacts in taxonomic groups. Taxonomic groups represented in the figure are plants, amphibians, mammals, insects, birds and reptiles respectively. a) Number of risk projections per taxon; b) Mean projected annual risk impact per taxon. Negative impacts are represented in pink and positive impacts in blue; c) Proportion of species positively impacted, negatively impacted or at extinction risks
Climate mitigation potential for reducing risk to biodiversity in CSA. a Mean projected annual risk impact (bars) and confidence intervals (error bars, 95% confidence intervals) per taxon considering different warming levels, both under Paris Agreement and Business as Usual trends. Significant p values in differences of both warming levels in the GLMMs are indicated with asterisks (*) (see Supplementary Table 3 for statistical results); b Proportion of species that are positively impacted, negatively impacted or at extinction risks in different warming levels, Paris Agreement and Business as Usual
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Although it might adversely impact all of the world in varying magnitudes, tropical biodiversity is expected to be impacted the most. Central and South America (CSA) is among the most biodiverse regions in the world, housing several important areas for conservation due to high levels of diversity and endemism. Thus, because of its disproportionate tropical biodiversity, CSA might be severely vulnerable to climate change in the future. We performed a systematic review to assess how risk projections varied for different aspects of biodiversity in CSA, and the potential benefits of limiting climate change. We evaluated 71 scientific papers, amounting to > 3000 risk projections in the priority areas for conservation in CSA. CSA houses some of the most studied richspots in the world, with a strong bias towards the Atlantic Forest, Mesoamerica and Cerrado hotspots. Our results indicate that up to 85% of risk projections predict negative impacts, with 26% of projections predicting species extinctions. While high emissions scenarios indicate severe adverse impacts for biodiversity in CSA, noteworthy risk reduction arose from mitigation. Considering a climate change mitigation scenario in line with the Paris Agreement, risks for the region could be substantially reduced by over 80%. However, for endemic species, which are predicted to be the most impacted by climate change in CSA, mitigation alone will not suffice to minimize climatic risks. This highlights the urgent need of adaptation measures to increase the resilience of natural systems in the CSA to climate change.
The Canary Islands are a leading tourist destination. Their strong economic dependence on this sector makes them vulnerable to climate change. The steep orography of the islands causes impact of climate change and their potential influence on tourism to be spatially heterogenous. To account for this variability, regional climate simulations were computed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) numerical weather prediction model driven by the results of three CMIP5 global climate models as boundary conditions, using two different future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the projections. The simulations were performed at a spatial resolution of 3 km for three 30-year periods, recent past (1980–2009), mid-century (2030–2059), and end-century (2070–2099). For two widely used indices of tourist attractiveness (the Tourism Climate Index TCI and the Holiday Climate Index HCI), the coastal region of most islands currently has between 20 and 30 “excellent” and “ideal” days per month for tourism, with a decrease at higher elevations. Future leisure conditions are expected to improve at higher locations and during the autumn, winter and spring. In the RCP8.5 scenario, “excellent” days are projected to increase in winter at the end of the century. Nevertheless, in the southern areas, where most of the hotel infrastructure is located, the indices indicate significantly worsened conditions in summer, with only a few “excellent” days expected in some locations. Thermal comfort was identified as the most important factor determining the expected changes.
Categorization of climatic impacts to which microeconomic actors adapted, based on a total of 202 climate impacts featured in the 80 reviewed papers. Extreme events include droughts (14), floods (13), (undefined) extreme weather (6), storms (3), coral bleaching (1), and cold spells (1). Other includes wind, radiation, soil salinity, biomass productivity, access to coastal resources, weed/insect pressure, disease from water shortage, crop disease, heat stress, loss of nutrients in waterways, sickness of fish, water temperatures, glacial shrinkage, rock fall, and delayed monsoon onset. Rainfall and temperature include gradual trends in land-based climate. Sea level rise includes coastal erosion
Categorization of determinants for individual microeconomic adaptation categories, based on a total of 330 determinants featured in the 80 reviewed papers. This figure shows which indicators within one of the adaptive capacity domains have been found to have a significant effect on the likelihood of implementing a particular kind of adaptation measure. It includes evidence only from studies that have analyzed the relationship between adaptive capacity and individual adaptation measures. In this case, agency includes land ownership and joint decision-making power. Assets include land availability (e.g. farm size), labour availability (e.g. household size), income, savings, access to credit, and water availability. Flexibility includes access to markets, soil fertility, alternative livelihood options (e.g. low dependency on particular livelihood), younger age, diversity of skills, elasticity of market demand, and access to electricity and digital technologies. Learning includes education, access to extension services, local knowledge (e.g. farming experience), access to weather/climate information, and knowledge about advanced adaptation measures. (Social) organization includes social networks, association membership, and government support. Socio-cognitive constructs include prior experience with climate change, (high) attitude to risk, (low) place attachment, (high) trust in government/NGOs/traders, attitude towards innovation, perceived easiness of adaptation, and perception of future climate change
Most frequently mentioned public interventions affecting microeconomic adaptation to climate change, based on a total of 57 interventions featured in the 80 reviewed papers. Financial includes farm support, (micro) credit, and subsidies (water, fuel, and fertilizer). General development includes general economic development, job programs, land-use policies, and access to electricity. Information includes extension advice, technology-linked support, agro-forestry, seasonal forecasts, and communication networks. Infrastructure includes infrastructure support, for example drainage systems. Markets includes market access and deregulation. Social protection includes social protection schemes, crop insurance, and food aid
Conceptual framework: microeconomic adaptation to climate change. This figure describes the interdependent relationships and consequential linkages between adaptive capacity, adaptations, outcomes, and government policies. Government policies here are only those that facilitate microeconomic adaptations. Policies that are directly implemented by governments are not a part of the microeconomic adaptation process. The type of climate change and its severity are seen here as a mediating factor on the kind of adaptations that are implemented. Adaptive capacity domains from Cinner and Barnes (2019); outcome indicators from author’s own synthesis of prior findings by Doria et al. (2009); adaptation categories from synthesis of empirical literature
Actors across all economic sectors of society will need to adapt to cope with the accelerating impacts of climate change. However, little information is currently available about how microeconomic actors are adapting to climate change and how best to support these adaptations. We reviewed the empirical literature to provide an overview of (1) the climate change adaptations that have been undertaken in practice by microeconomic actors (i.e. households and firms) and their determinants; and (2) the outcomes of these adaptations and the manner in which public policies have supported them. About a quarter of actors across the studies included in our review took no adaptation measures to climate change. Of those that did, the most commonly identified determinant of adaptation was assets, which were predominantly discussed as facilitating diversification within livelihoods. Few (14 out of 80) of the studies we reviewed which described empirical climate change adaptations evaluated the outcomes of these adaptations. Of those that did, evidence suggests that conflicts exist between the microeconomic outcomes of adaptations, social and environmental externalities, and long-term resilience. Different public policy interventions intended to support adaptation were discussed (57 in total); the provision of informational support was the most prevalent (33%). Our analysis suggests that microeconomic adaptation occurs as a cycle in which social and ecological feedbacks positively or negatively influence the adaptation process. Thus, efforts to facilitate adaptation are more likely to be effective if they recognize the role of feedbacks and the potential diversity of outcomes triggered by public policy incentives.
Map of the 268 sites considered in this study (stable nesting sites (n = 25) are regularly used for nesting and host more than 10 nests at each nesting season; sporadic nesting sites (n = 27) have sporadically been used for nesting by marine turtles and contain suitable geomorphological features that allow to serve as nesting sites; potential nesting sites (n = 216) have never been used for nesting and consist fully or partly of sandy material) (photo: C. Dimitriadis)
Average resilience to beach retreat between different beach categories (i.e., stable nesting sites, sporadic nesting sites, potential nesting sites) within each SLR scenario (i.e., RCP4.5 by 2100 and RCP8.5 by 2100)
Spatial distribution of the stable nesting sites in the Eastern Ionian region regarding their resilience to beach retreat under the different SLR scenarios
Contribution (%) of the stable nesting sites to different categories of beach resilience under the two SLR scenarios at regional level. The total number of nests (raw number and % contribution at regional level) which nesting sites currently host within each beach resilience category is also shown
Sea level rise could result in the loss and shrinkage of coastal habitats, jeopardizing the persistence of a number of species that rely upon these highly dynamic and sensitive areas. With reproduction and population recruitment depending exclusively on low-lying sandy beaches, marine turtles are among the organisms for which sea level rise represents a major threat. Here, we provide an assessment of the potential impacts of sea level rise upon sandy beaches located at the Ionian Archipelagos, which host some of the main nesting sites of the Mediterranean population of the loggerhead marine turtle Caretta caretta. Our analyses focused on sandy beaches which host stable or sporadic nesting as well as on sites that could potentially serve as nesting grounds for the species. We demonstrated that more than 60% of the stable nesting sites (accounting for about half of the total nesting activity in the region) are likely to fail to act as nesting sites under moderate and worst case scenarios of projected sea level rise by 2100. We found that only about one fifth of the stable and the sporadic nesting beaches were characterized by high resilience to SLR, meaning that the effective zone for nesting can migrate landwards and fit in the remaining upper beach part. Potential nesting sites were subjected to even lower resilience to sea level rise, suggesting that even if marine turtles could shift to new, nearby nesting sites, the efficiency of such a response would be limited. These alarming findings call for the prioritization of conservation and restoration efforts towards sandy shores of moderate and high resilience to sea level rise which are currently used for stable or even sporadic nesting.
Map of the Fiji Islands indicating the path of Cyclone Winston and the districts of the villages in this study
Count of (a) total and (b) newly recorded starch crop species; and (c) total and (d) newly recorded primary root crop species by village per year. Data does not exist for Togalevu in 2017
Number of cassava (a), taro (c), sweet potato (e), and yam (g) cultivars recorded in each village per year. Number of newly recorded cassava (b), taro (d), sweet potato (f), and yam (h) cultivars in each village per year. Data does not exist for Togalevu in 2017
of robustness, reactivity, redundancy, and resourcefulness of starch crops and cultivars at each village. A green cell indicates that the agroforest in that village showed resilience post-cyclone, as measured respectively by robustness, reactivity, redundancy, and resourcefulness (as defined in the methods). A yellow cell indicates moderate resilience, and red indicates the aspect was not observed to contribute to resilience. Data was unavailable for Togalevu in 2017 and summary results were omitted where that data was necessary
As climate change increases the probability and/or severity of major disturbances worldwide, understanding how agroecological food systems can be resilient to the effects of major disturbances becomes critical. Farm-level crop and cultivar richness are critical to food security and nutritional dietary diversity, but quantitative research of how they are impacted by major disturbances, including the dynamics of their recovery, is largely lacking. We assessed the resilience of an agroforest-based food system to a recent Category 5 cyclone. Specifically, we carried out vegetation surveys in Fijian agroforests pre-cyclone, and 1 and 3 years post-cyclone, to assess changes in staple starch crop and cultivar richness over time. Resilience, measured as robustness, redundancy, reactivity, and resourcefulness, varied with the scale of analysis. At both the crop and cultivar scale, the agroforestry systems were highly reactive to cyclone disturbance. Crop species richness increased immediately post-cyclone and 3 years later remained higher than pre-cyclone levels, largely due to the increased presence of famine food crops, indicating system robustness, redundancy, and resourcefulness as well. Farmers also planted many new starch crop cultivars post-cyclone, especially of sweet potatoes, but the total number of cultivars declined over time, indicating limited redundancy and resourcefulness. Frequent crop substitutions for cassava over taro or yams, and high cultivar dynamism that resulted in the loss of traditional varieties, can have consequences both for nutritional diversity and the maintenance of cultural traditions. This research suggests resilience is present in Fijian agroforest systems, yet a greater focus on crop cultivar diversity is needed.
Road weather is a major concern for the public safety and health, industries and transport sectors. Half of the yearly 27,000 road and 50,000 pedestrian injuries in Finland, Norway and Sweden can be traced back to slippery road and walkway conditions. We simulated the climate change impacts on future roads and walkways for mid- and end-century in Finland, Norway and Sweden with the road weather model RoadSurf, driven by the regional climate model HCLIM38 with boundary data from two global climate models following the RCP8.5 scenario. Our simulations for mid-century suggest strong road surface temperature increases, especially in southern Finland (+ 5.1 °C) and Sweden (+ 7.1 °C). Snowy and icy road surface conditions decreased by 23 percentage points, causing 18.5 percentage points less difficult driving conditions during the cold season. Zero-degree-crossing days mostly decreased in autumn and spring by up to 7 days and increased in winter by up to 5 days. Sidewalks mostly showed a decrease in slipperiness, but a five percentage point increase of water above ice layers on the sidewalks in winter, suggesting the slip-season might become shorter, but more slippery. Our results are upper extreme estimates but can serve as a reference to help local decision-makers plan mitigation and adaptation measures ahead of time.
Map of Nepal showing local administrative units and physiographic regions. Inset: Nepal in the world map
Annual number of climatic disaster incidences recorded (frequency) and number of people died (mortality) by disaster types in Nepal during 1992–2021
Monthly pattern of climatic disaster mortality in Nepal by decade
a Multidisaster vulnerability trend (3 years moving average) over time in urban areas, rural areas, and whole Nepal during 1992–2021. b Relationship of multidisaster vulnerability (in log scale) to per capita income
Spatial distribution of climatic disaster impacts (total mortality) and vulnerability (average annual mortality per 100 K people exposed) in Nepal during 1992–2021. The color code range in the maps is manually assigned, and the range values are shown in the legend
The impacts of climatic disasters have been rising globally. Several studies argue that this upward trend is due to rapid growth in the population and wealth exposed to disasters. Others argue that rising extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change are responsible for the increase. Hence, the causes of the increase in disaster impacts remain elusive. Disaster impacts relative to income are higher in low-income countries, but existing studies are mostly from developed countries or at the cross-country level. Here we assess the spatiotemporal trends of climatic disaster impacts and vulnerability and their attribution to climatic and socioeconomic factors at the subnational scale in a low-income country, using Nepal as a case study. Loss of life is the most extreme consequence of disasters. Therefore, we employed human mortality as a measure of disaster impacts, and mortality normalized by exposed population as a measure of human vulnerability. We found that climatic disaster frequency and mortality increased in Nepal from 1992 to 2021. However, vulnerability decreased, most likely due to economic growth and progress in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Disaster mortality is positively correlated with disaster frequency and negatively correlated with per capita income but is not correlated with the exposed population. Hence, population growth may not have caused the rise in disaster mortality in Nepal. The strong rise in disaster incidence, potentially due to climate change, has overcome the effect of decreasing vulnerability and caused the rise in disaster mortality.
Coastal tourism is impacted by regional environmental change, including sea-level rise and climatic change. A case study at five Japanese beaches was conducted to determine the relative difference in coastal and climatic changes that are important for recreational beach tourism. Future climate conditions and projections of shoreline changes due to sea-level rise were estimated using ensembles of 14 and 21 Global Circulation Models (GCMs), respectively. The Holiday Climate Index (HCI:Beach) specific to recreational beach use was used to assess historical and future climatic suitability while beach loss area was used to quantify physical changes to beach conditions. Diminished beaches with improved climate conditions were observed at all sites except Yonehara, which had both diminished beach and climate conditions. Comparing HCI:Beach scores relative to historical conditions revealed a change of -2.4 to +10%, while beach losses were typically >60%. These results highlight that beach tourism suitability at the study sites will likely exhibit greater changes due to sea-level rise, compared to those driven by changing atmospheric conditions. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-022-01906-2.
Top-cited authors
Olivia Serdeczny
  • Climate Analytics
Florent Baarsch
Alexander Robinson
  • Complutense University of Madrid
Dim Coumou
  • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Sophie Adams
  • UNSW Sydney