Population et Avenir

Online ISSN: 0223-5706
Publications
Article
PIP: French population policy developments since 1945 are reviewed and compared to events in other developed countries. The author notes that the original objectives of French policy were to ensure a certain standard of living to children in families, regardless of the size of the family. However, over the course of time, the right not to have more children than parents wanted became another policy objective. He also notes that the level of support for families has declined in real terms over time and that France has now been overtaken by other Western countries, such as Sweden and the United Kingdom.
 
Article
PIP: A review of demographic trends in France is presented based on recently published official reports. The author notes that the average population age continues to increase; fertility, particularly within marriage, is declining significantly; and mortality continues to improve for the elderly.
 
Article
PIP: Demographic trends in France in 1998 are briefly reviewed. The author suggests that, although the slight increase in fertility recorded is an encouraging sign, it is primarily due to a change in the timing of births rather than to an increase in their number. Meanwhile, the decline in the percentage of the population under age 20, below replacement fertility, and a small decline in nuptiality are evidence of the countrys continuing demographic problems.
 
Article
PIP: Preliminary projections of the population of France to the year 2015 are formulated using first results from the 1990 census. The author concludes that the increasing financial burden placed on the working-age population by demographic aging could lead to a further decrease in fertility, thus exacerbating the problem.
 
Article
PIP: The future effects of demographic aging on the transfer of wealth between generations in France are explored. Transfers in the private and public sectors are examined separately. The importance of developing the appropriate social policies to cope with these changes is stressed.
 
Article
PIP: The negative effects of demographic aging in developed countries are analyzed, using the example of France. The author concludes that the growing burden on the working-age population of providing social security for the elderly is causing a decrease in fertility and an increase in unemployment, thereby contributing to the economic problems of developed countries.
 
Article
PIP: This work argues that fluctuations in relative income of young adults in the US after World War II coincided with the dramatically increased fertility of the baby boom and were probably a significant determining factor in its occurrence and eventual interruption. The US total fertility rate declined rapidly in the early 20th century, from 3.8 in 1900 to 2.44 in 1929 and 2.24 in 1935-36. Fertility was below replacement level in 1932-39. Its spectacular recovery from the early 1940s culminated in the year 1957, with a total fertility rate of 3.77. Fertility declined rapidly again in the late 1960s and attained its low point in 1976, with a total fertility rate of 1.74. It has slowly increased since then, especially with the arrival of increasing numbers of high-fertility immigrants from Latin America beginning in the late 1980s. Although per capita gross national product in the US rose dramatically between 1929 and 1994, income distribution also changed, as did the relative income from wages and salaries of workers under 40 years old. From the end of World War II until the late 1950s, the wage and salary income of young workers increased more rapidly than did that of older workers, so that younger workers were at an advantage during the years of the baby boom. Young workers also benefited from federal programs such as Fulbright scholarships, home loan programs, and veterans benefits. Transfer payments for pensions and higher interest rates progressively improved the position of older workers, and younger workers faced a loss of relative income in the 1960s and 1970s that coincided with the end of the baby boom and that quite likely was a causative factor. With the progressive aging of the US population, the relative loss of income of younger workers will probably intensify and be joined by a relative loss of political power, as the proportion of the electorate in the prime childbearing years shrinks further.
 
Article
PIP: An analysis of the fertility of the foreign population resident in France is presented. The author estimates that fertility among foreigners is still higher than that for the population as a whole, but is declining to the same level. The data are from official sources and concern the period up to 1984.
 
Article
PIP: This two-part article discusses the application of demographic concepts and methods to the management of human resources in large enterprises in both the public and private sectors. In the first part, the author concludes that the failure to integrate these concepts and methods is primarily due to lack of information, underestimation of their relevance, and failure to apply them appropriately. In the second part, he spells out how they could be applied better in the future, with particular regard to the concept of age distribution and understanding the future implications of the characteristics of the current workforce. The primary focus is on the situation in developed countries.
 
Article
PIP: The author examines the causes of the demographic implosion believed to be occurring in the industrialized countries that have completed their demographic transitions. Total fertility rate and completed family size are used to identify fertility trends, but age effects, rather than changes in completed family size, may be the cause of variations in total fertility rates from year to year. Over time, however, trends become less subject to misinterpretation because of transitory fluctuations. It is difficult to attribute France's low total fertility rates of the past 20 or 30 years to age effects. Changes in nuptiality and female employment should be included in analysis of fertility trends. It is known that couples who marry have more children than those who cohabit and that families in which both parents work have fewer than 2 children on average, compared to 2.5 in families with one employed parent. If female activity rates and the proportion of cohabiting couples continue to increase, fertility predictably will remain low. Increases in the average age at childbearing in themselves have the effect of narrowing the base of the age pyramid. The use of modern contraception has allowed couples to have children when they want, but not always as many as they want. Smaller family sizes and later childbearing lead to population aging. The sociodemographic theory of implosion identifies relative income as a determinant of fertility behaviors that can be expected to result in ever declining fertility and demographic implosion under these circumstances.
 
Article
PIP: In 1929, Warren S. Thompson published a three-part classification of world populations according to their fertility levels and growth rates that explained the progressive passage from one group to another in terms of economic and social factors. American demographers, preoccupied by the Great Depression, paid insufficient attention to this early formulation of demographic transition theory. During 1928-31, Robert Kuckzinsky systematically analyzed the historical evolution of mortality and fertility in Europe and introduced the term "transition" in reference to eastern Europe. In 1944-45, Frank Notestein and Kingsley Davis presented the theory of demographic transition in the form that came to be nearly universally accepted. All societies, it was believed, would pass through the three stages, from a preindustrial to a postindustrial demographic equilibrium. Mortality was presented as a dependent variable under economic control, while fertility was a dependent variable under social control. Demographic transition theory would provide the conceptual framework for UN demographic projections and the justification for family planning programs for the massive agricultural populations of Asia. As the theory developed, the relationship between development and demographic transition was inverted; it was argued that rapid growth constituted an insurmountable obstacle to industrialization or any kind of modernization. Fertility had to be reduced in poor countries by any means possible to permit their economic advancement. Family planning programs in developing countries were supported, and major resources were devoted to KAP studies and the World Fertility Survey. The struggle to control fertility became the most urgent objective. It was not until the 1974 UN World Population Conference in Bucharest that the American delegation abandoned the extremist position of the preceding decade and acknowledged that population policies are not substitutes for development policies.
 
Article
PIP: The author analyzes the decline in French fertility which has occurred over the past two years using data from official sources. Some comparisons are made with fertility trends in other European countries.
 
Article
PIP: This is a brief review of recent demographic trends in the countries of the European Union based on published data. Attention is given to trends in fertility, infant mortality, and age distribution. Despite significant differences among countries, the author notes the need for a general concern about population replacement and demographic aging. The author also contrasts the relative demographic and economic stagnation of the European community with the more buoyant demographic and economic conditions prevailing in the United States.
 
Article
PIP: The author reviews recent official population projections for France up to 2050. He notes that, whatever assumptions are made concerning future trends in fertility, there will be a dramatic increase in demographic aging. The implications of the increased financial burden that the population of working age will have to shoulder are discussed.
 
Article
PIP: The demographic situation in Germany is first described, with attention given to such aspects as below replacement fertility, negative rates of natural increase, and the beginning of an actual decline in the size of the total population despite the presence of over 7 million foreigners. The author then describes a decision taken at Karlsruhe on January 19, 1999, by the countrys judges on a constitutional issue which for the first time recognized the duty of the state to protect marriage and the family, and to provide financial incentives to promote both the institution of marriage and encourage fertility within marriage.
 
Article
PIP: The rhythm and extent of fertility decline in Europe varies with the country. Fewer marriages, later marriages, more divorces, and increased contraceptive use are responsible for the fertility decline. Children are no longer perceived as an investment in the future but, more and more, as a means of personal satisfaction, a means to assure comfort in one's own existence. Socioeconomic effects of demographic aging include economic inflexibility and generational conflicts. The family is very beneficial and must be integrated by all persons wanting a realistic economy. The family is the first economic reality (i.e., society's smallest unit). It brings human resources to economic life. Parental activity has economic value. When it is a question of implementing concrete family policy measures, the argument of too high costs arises. So one is content with good proclaimed intentions. Few persons ask: Does the existence of families or of large families influence economic activity? Demographic balance would justify increased aid for the minority of large families, which would liberate couples not wanting children. This balance and good performance of economies are needed to put families as a top priority. Ethical, spiritual, or philosophical aspects have a great importance and must not be neglected. It is useful to be familiar with the point of view of economists reaching clarity, precision, and completeness as regards to all that is seen elsewhere. The disappearance of large families risks being detrimental to economic dynamics and a source of social tensions, of which it would be equally necessary to estimate costs. The problems of suburbs comes immediately to mind. But more deeply, does this disappearance not reveal an absence of all future visions? Economic analysis is at a crossroads. One must promote ethical economics, which means that it is not necessary to be satisfied with good management.
 
Article
PIP: The work of Adolphe Landry is reviewed in relation to development of demographic transition theory. Landry was appointed administrator in 1912 of the National Alliance Against Depopulation and remained active in it his whole life. He also helped create family allowance programs in France. As early as 1909, Landry described three different population regimes. In the "primitive" regime, which characterized all nonhuman life and human life during most of history, the population was adjusted to available subsistence by mortality. In the "intermediate" phase, restrictions on marriage and control of reproduction outside marriage maintained the population at a level below the maximum supportable. In the "contemporary" regime, the universal practice of contraception and abortion could lead to very low levels of fertility. The spread of contraception and low fertility appeared to Landry a true demographic revolution. He attributed the acceptance of contraception to a change in the common aspirations of human beings regarding their conditions, a desire for improved material well-being and social advancement, and an increased spirit of rationality and even calculation in their behavior. Landry believed that the contemporary regime, unlike the preceding two, had no mechanism implying equilibrium. The demographic revolution freed fertility from social determinants and linked it more closely to individual interests. Landry expected the contemporary regime to spread throughout the entire world, with many areas still in the primitive phase passing directly to the contemporary. He was concerned with the effects of demographic aging, and he deplored birth control propaganda that claimed it as a cure for unemployment and for overpopulation in the poor Asian countries. The birth control movements in England and the US were successful in bringing the two countries into the contemporary regime. A number of organizations such as the Population Association of America and the Office of Population Research at Princeton were favorable toward the spread of birth control through the rest of the world.
 
Article
PIP: The impact of current demographic trends, particularly demographic aging, on the economies of developed countries is examined using the example of Japan. The author concludes that the relatively large cohorts born after the Second World War will bear the brunt of the economic burden: not only will their earnings be lower, but the return on their savings in old age will also be lower than that of previous cohorts.
 
Article
PIP: This article examines some aspects of demographic aging, with reference to the situation in France. In particular, the author discusses implications of the fact that an increasing percentage of economic, social, financial, and political power is concentrated in the hands of the population over age 50. He suggests that this aspect of demographic aging is not given sufficient consideration in most studies on this topic.
 
Article
Au début de la pandémie Covid-19, beaucoup ont cru ou espéré à un phénomène con-joncturel, une parenthèse qui allait se refermer pour qu’ensuite tout soit comme avant sans conséquence durable. Or, cette pandémie pourrait amorcer, dans l’histoire de l’humanité, un phénomène structurel dont il convient d’examiner les effets possibles sur la démographie mondiale.. [At the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, many believed or hoped that it was a temporary phenomenon, a parenthesis that would close and then everything would be as it was before without any lasting consequences. However, this pandemic could be the beginning of a structural phenomenon in the history of humanity, the possible effects of which on world demography should be examined.]
 
Article
Dans l’évolution de la population de la France, la Covid-19 a imprimé des marques significatives surtout en termes de mortalité et d’espérance de vie. Mais des constantes déjà présentes avant cette pandémie ne perdurent-elles pas ? [In the evolution of the French population, Covid-19 has left significant marks, especially in terms of mortality and life expectancy. But don't the constants already present before this pandemic persist?]
 
Article
La population de la France connait un processus de vieillissement. Son intensi-te n’est pas due a une cause unique. Elle resulte de trois facteurs qui se combinent de facon variee au fil des annees : le premier est structurel, le deuxieme tient a l’evolution de l’esperance de vie, le troisieme a celle de la jeunesse.
 
Top-cited authors
Gérard-François DUMONT
  • Sorbonne Université
Jean-Marc Zaninetti
  • Université d'Orléans
véronique lespinet-najib
  • French National Centre for Scientific Research
Jocelyn Husser
  • Aix-Marseille Université
jean-marc Andre
  • Bordeaux INP