Nature Geoscience

Geological records indicate that the surface of ancient Mars harboured substantial volumes of liquid water, a resource gradually diminished by processes such as the chemical alteration of crustal materials by hydration and atmospheric escape. However, how a relatively warm climate existed on early Mars to support liquid water under a fainter young Sun is debated. Greenhouse gases such as H2 in a CO2-rich atmosphere could have contributed to warming through collision-induced absorption, but whether sufficient H2 was available to sustain warming remains unclear. Here we use a combined climate and photochemical model to simulate how atmospheric chemistry on early Mars responded to water–rock reactions and climate variations, as constrained by existing observations. We find that H2 outgassing from crustal hydration and oxidation, supplemented by transient volcanic activity, could have generated sufficient H2 fluxes to transiently foster warm, humid climates. We estimate that Mars experienced episodic warm periods of an integrated duration of ~40 million years, with each event lasting ≥10⁵ years, consistent with the formation timescale of valley networks. Declining atmospheric CO2 via surface oxidant sinks or variations in the planet’s axial tilt could have led to abrupt shifts in the planet’s redox state and transition to a CO-dominated atmosphere and cold climate.

Forecasting the onset, evolution and end of volcanic eruptions relies on interpretation of monitoring data—particularly seismic signals, such as persistent volcanic tremor—in relation to causative magmatic processes. Petrology helps establish such links retrospectively but typically lacks the required temporal resolution to directly relate to geophysical data. Here we report major and volatile element compositions of glass from volcanic ash continuously sampled throughout the 2021 Tajogaite eruption of Cumbre Vieja volcano, La Palma, Canary Islands. The data reveal the evolving chemistry of melts supplied from depth at a daily temporal resolution. Erupted melt compositions become progressively more primitive until the tenth week of activity, but a sharp reversal of this trend then marks the decline of mantle magma supply and a precursory signal to the eruption end. We find that melt SiO2 content is positively correlated with the amplitude of narrow-band volcanic tremor. Tremor characteristics, inferences from simulations and model calculations point to melt viscosity-controlled degassing dynamics generating variations in tremor amplitude. Our results show promise for a monitoring and forecasting tool capable of quickly identifying rejuvenated and waning phases of volcanic eruptions and illustrate how subtle changes in melt composition may translate to large shifts in geophysical signals.

There is considerable uncertainty regarding the impact of irrigation on heat stress, partly stemming from the choice of heat stress index. Moreover, existing simulations are at scales that cannot appropriately resolve population centres or clouds and thus the potential for human impacts. Using multi-year convection-permitting and urban-resolving regional climate simulations, we demonstrate that irrigation alleviates summertime heat stress across more than 1,600 urban clusters in North America. This holds true for most physiologically relevant heat stress indices. The impact of irrigation varies by climate zone, with more notable irrigation signals seen for arid urban clusters that are situated near heavily irrigated fields. Through a component attribution framework, we show that irrigation-induced changes in wet-bulb temperature, often used as a moist heat stress proxy in the geosciences, exhibit an opposite sign to the corresponding changes in wet bulb globe temperature—a more complete index for assessing both indoor and outdoor heat risk—across climate zones. In contrast, the local changes in both wet-bulb and wet bulb globe temperature due to urbanization have the same sign. Our results demonstrate a complex relationship between irrigation and heat stress, highlighting the importance of using appropriate heat stress indices when assessing the potential for population-scale human impacts.

Atmospheric CO2 is thought to play a fundamental role in Earth’s climate regulation. Yet, for much of Earth’s geological past, atmospheric CO2 has been poorly constrained, hindering our understanding of transitions between cool and warm climates. Beginning ~370 million years ago in the Late Devonian and ending ~260 million years ago in the Permian, the Late Palaeozoic Ice Age was the last major glaciation preceding the current Late Cenozoic Ice Age and possibly the most intense glaciation witnessed by complex lifeforms. From the onset of the main phase of the Late Palaeozoic Ice Age in the mid-Mississippian ~330 million years ago, the Earth is thought to have sustained glacial conditions, with continental ice accumulating in high to mid-latitudes. Here we present an 80-million-year-long boron isotope record within a proxy framework for robust quantification of CO2. Our record reveals that the main phase of the Late Palaeozoic Ice Age glaciation was maintained by prolonged low CO2, unprecedented in Earth’s history. About 294 million years ago, atmospheric CO2 rose abruptly (4-fold), releasing the Earth from its penultimate ice age and transforming the Early Permian into a warmer world.

The eastern equatorial Atlantic hosts a productive marine ecosystem that depends on upward supply of nitrate, the primary limiting nutrient in this region. The annual productivity peak, indicated by elevated surface chlorophyll levels, occurs in the Northern Hemisphere summer, roughly coinciding with strengthened easterly winds. For enhanced productivity in the equatorial Atlantic, nitrate-rich water must rise into the turbulent layer above the Equatorial Undercurrent. Using data from two trans-Atlantic equatorial surveys, along with extended time series from equatorial moorings, we demonstrate how three independent wind-driven processes shape the seasonality of equatorial Atlantic productivity: (1) the nitracline shoals in response to intensifying easterly winds; (2) the depth of the Equatorial Undercurrent core, defined by maximum eastward velocity, is controlled by an annual oscillation of basin-scale standing equatorial waves; and (3) mixing intensity in the shear zone above the Equatorial Undercurrent core is governed by local and instantaneous winds. The interplay of these three mechanisms shapes a unique seasonal cycle of nutrient supply and productivity in the equatorial Atlantic, with a productivity minimum in April due to a shallow Equatorial Undercurrent and a productivity maximum in July resulting from a shallow nitracline coupled with enhanced mixing.

Pluto and Charon are the largest binary system in the known population of trans-Neptunian objects in the outer Solar System. Their shared external orbital axis suggests a linked evolutionary history and collisional origin. Their radii, ~1,200 km and ~600 km, respectively, and Charon’s wide circular orbit of about 16 Pluto radii require a formation mechanism that places a large mass fraction into orbit, with sufficient angular momentum to drive tidal orbital expansion. Here we numerically model the collisional capture of Charon by Pluto using simulations that include material strength. In our simulations, friction distributes impact momentum, leading Charon and Pluto to become temporarily connected, instead of merging, for impacts aligned with the target’s rotation. In this ‘kiss-and-capture’ regime, coalescence of the bodies is prevented by strength. For a prograde target rotation consistent with the system angular momentum, Charon is then tidally decoupled and raised into a near-circular orbit from which it migrates outwards to distances consistent with its present orbit. Charon is captured relatively intact in this scenario, retaining its core and most of its mantle, which implies that Charon could be as ancient as Pluto.

Productivity in the Pleistocene glacial Southern Ocean was probably enhanced owing to iron fertilization by aeolian dust. Marine sediments indicate such an increase north of the modern Antarctic Polar Front but reduced biogenic activity south of it. However, quantitative estimates for the integrated net effect are difficult to obtain. Here we use the SO4²⁻ isotopic composition and other geochemical ice core records from the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean to reconstruct net changes in integrated biogenic sulfur productivity in the surface ocean over the penultimate glacial termination. We show that biogenic SO4²⁻ aerosol contributes 58% and 85% to the sulfate budget in Dronning Maud Land during glacial and interglacial times, respectively, and that biogenic sulfate is derived predominately from the seasonal sea ice zone. Using our quantitative reconstruction of biogenic aerosol production in the Southern Ocean source region, we show that the average biogenic sulfate production integrated over the Atlantic sector was 16% higher in the penultimate glacial 137,000–153,000 years ago compared with the later Last Interglacial 120,000–125,000 years ago. An intermittent decrease in productivity observed during early peak interglacial warming suggests that a reduction in the seasonal sea ice zone may disrupt Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Controls on organic carbon preservation in marine sediments remain controversial but crucial for understanding past and future climate dynamics. Here we develop a conceptual-mathematical model to determine the key processes for the preservation of organic carbon. The model considers the major processes involved in the breakdown of organic carbon, including dissolved organic carbon hydrolysis, mixing, remineralization, mineral sorption and molecular transformation. This allows redefining of burial efficiency as preservation efficiency, which considers both particulate organic carbon and mineral-phase organic carbon. We show that preservation efficiency is almost three times higher than the conventionally defined burial efficiency and reconciles predictions with global field data. Kinetic sorption and transformation are the dominant controls on organic carbon preservation. We conclude that a synergistic effect between kinetic sorption and molecular transformation (geopolymerization) creates a mineral shuttle in which mineral-phase organic carbon is protected from remineralization in the surface sediment and released at depth. The results explain why transformed organic carbon persists over long timescales and increases with depth.

Thermokarst lakes cause abrupt and sustained permafrost degradation and have the potential to release large quantities of ancient carbon to the atmosphere. Despite concerns about how lakes will affect the permafrost carbon feedback, the magnitude of carbon dioxide and methane emissions from deep permafrost soils remains poorly understood. Here we incubated a very deep sediment core (20 m) to constrain the potential productivity of thawed Yedoma and underlying Quaternary sand and gravel deposits. Through radiocarbon dating, sediment incubations and sediment facies classifications, we show that extensive permafrost thaw can occur beneath lakes on timescales of decades to centuries. Although it has been assumed that shallow, aerobic carbon dioxide production will dominate the climate impact of permafrost thaw, we found that anaerobic carbon dioxide and methane production from deep sediments was commensurate with aerobic production on a per gram carbon basis, and had double the global warming potential at warmer temperatures. Carbon release from deep Arctic sediments may thus have a more substantial impact on a changing climate than currently anticipated. These environments are presently overlooked in estimates of the permafrost carbon feedback.

Urban ozone (O3) pollution correlates with temperature, and higher O3 often occurs during heatwaves, threatening public health. However, limited data on how anthropogenic volatile organic compound (AVOC) precursor emissions vary with temperature hinders understanding their impact on O3. Here we show that the increase in non-combustion AVOC emissions (for example, from volatile chemical products) during a heatwave in Shanghai contributes significantly to increased O3, on the basis of ambient measurements, emissions testing and air quality modelling. AVOC concentrations increase ~twofold when the temperature increases from 25 °C to 35 °C due to air stagnation and increased emissions. During the heatwave, higher concentrations result in an 82% increase in VOC OH reactivity. Air quality simulations reveal that temperature-driven AVOC emissions increases account for 8% (1.6 s–1) of this reactivity increase and enhance O3 by 4.6 ppb. Moreover, we predict a more profound (twofold) increase in OH reactivity of oxygenated VOCs, facilitating radical production and O3 formation. Enhanced AVOC emissions trigger O3 enhancements in large cities in East China during a heatwave, and similar effects may also happen in other AVOC-sensitive megacities globally. Reducing AVOC emissions, particularly non-combustion sources, which are currently less understood and regulated, could mitigate potential O3 pollution in urban environments during heatwaves.

Saturn’s rings have been estimated to be as young as about 100 to 400 million years old according to the hypothesis that non-icy micrometeoroid bombardment acts to darken the rings over time and the Cassini observation indicated that the ring particles appear to be relatively clean. These young age estimates assume that the rings formed out of pure water ice particles with a high accretion efficiency of impacting non-icy micrometeoroid material (η ≳ 10%). Here we show, using numerical simulations of hypervelocity micrometeoroid impacts on a ring particle, that non-icy material may not be as readily accreted as previously thought. We found that the complete vaporization and expansion of non-icy impactor material on energetic collision with a ring particle leads to the formation of charged nanoparticles and ions that are subsequently removed from the rings through collision with Saturn, gravitational escape or electromagnetic drag into Saturn’s atmosphere. Despite uncertainties in our models that assume no porosity, strength or ring particle granularity, we suggest minimal accretion of non-icy materials would occur following micrometeoroid impact. This pollution resistance mechanism implies a low accretion efficiency (η ≲ 1%). Thus we suggest that the apparent youth of Saturn’s rings could be due to pollution resistance, rather than indicative of young formation age.

The sulfur species present in magmatic fluids affect the global redox cycle, the Earth’s climate and the formation of some of the largest and most economic ore deposits of critical metals. However, the speciation of sulfur under conditions that are relevant for upper crustal magma reservoirs is unclear. Here we combine a prototype pressure vessel apparatus and Raman spectroscopy to determine sulfur speciation in arc magmatic fluid analogues in situ over a range of geologically relevant pressure–temperature–redox conditions. We find that HS⁻, H2S and SO2 are the main sulfur species in the experimental fluids, while the concentrations of S⁶⁺ species and S2⁻ and S3⁻ sulfur radical ions are negligible, in contrast to previous experimental work. The measured gold solubilities in the experimental fluids are highest when sulfur is dominantly present as HS⁻ and H2S species and greatly exceed thermodynamic predictions. Our results imply that HS⁻, rather than sulfur radicals, accounts for the high solubilities of gold in magmatic–hydrothermal fluids. We also find that magmatic sulfur degassing is a redox process under oxidizing conditions and may lead to additional magma oxidation beyond that imparted by slab-derived fluxes and crystallization.

Anaerobic oxidation of methane at the sulfate–methane transition in marine sediments is generally considered to be a near-perfect barrier against methane release from the seabed, but the mechanisms involved are not well understood. On the basis of a survey of Baltic Sea sediments we show that a highly variable amount (0–100%) of subseafloor methane leaks through the sulfate–methane transition. The diffusive methane flux to the sediment–water interface is often high, reaching over 2 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹. Even though anaerobic methane oxidation is thermodynamically and kinetically favoured where methane fluxes are high, there is no evidence of methane oxidation in concentration, isotope and modelling results. Cores that lacked anaerobic methane oxidation had high modelled organic matter mineralization rates, suggesting that a possible mechanism could be high electron donor availability due to elevated H2 concentrations, as has been predicted by laboratory studies. We show that methane leakage across the sulfate–methane transition is widespread in organic-rich marine sediments.