Journal of Post Keynesian Economics

Published by Taylor & Francis (Routledge)
Print ISSN: 0160-3477
Publications
The potential effect of the changing age distribution of the U.S. population on the level of aggregate saving is examined. "The Modigliani-Brumberg life-cycle model predicts a relationship between age distribution and the aggregate saving ratio via the population growth rate, which affects the ratio of earner/savers to retiree-dissavers. Aging resulting from slower population growth will result in a decline in the aggregate saving rate. This paper utilizes empirical age-saving relations, together with projected long-run population age distributions, to estimate the age distribution effect on aggregate personal saving. Results predict a much smaller decline in the saving ratio than is generated by the basic life-cycle model."
 
Keynes in 1937 examined the phenomenon of the Great Depression from a longrun perspective in contradiction to the "General Theory," where the focus was on the shortrun. "Some Economic Consequences of a Declining Population," Keynes' article, reveals the context in which the "General Theory" was written. In the "General Theory," the focus is on short-term fluctuations, i.e., business cycles, but Keynes fails to provide any theoretical explanation as to why the depression of the 1930s was so severe and intractable. In the 1937 article, the depression is seen as the result of the combined effects of a decline in longrun growth due to population growth decline and a shortrun cyclical decline, together producing severe economic consequences. What is important for the purposes of this discussion is the implication, within the context of the 1937 article, that not only was the stock market crash of 1929 related to population change (with its accompanying collapse in expectations) but that, in general, changes in the rate of growth of population are accompanied by stock price movements in the same direction. The remainder of the discussion is devoted to a simple empirical test of this relationship. The data used are population size (POP), defined as the total residential population in the US from 1870-1979, and the Standard and Poor 500 Stock index (SP) for the corresponding 109-year period. In addition, a 3rd series was constructed, a price deflated Standard and Poor index (RSP) with a base period of 1870, to account for possible inflationary distortion of the index. The empirical results do not invalidate the hypothesis that population growth rates affect equity markets. In fact, there seems to be strong evidence that they are related in a manner suggestive of Keynes' intutition, namely, that the stock market crash of 1929 was due to factors more fundamental than those often perceived from a shortrun perspective. According to Keynes (1937), population is the most important determinant of longrun movements in real per capita income (given the state of technology, the real rate of interest, the age structure of the population, and the size share of income). So the focus is on population and its effects on economic growth. Due to the fact that the stock market presumably discounts longrun economic conditions as reflected in equity prices, it would seem that if Keynes were correct in his theoretical speculations, longterm equity price movements should relate to population change. In this sense, the paper may be regarded as an empirical test of a proposition of Keynes. More generally, the paper is suggestive in several ways. The relationship between business cycles and stock market cycles has been understood to the point of being rather obvious, but the effects of population on both has been less clear. It does appear on the basis of the evidence presented that the malaise of the stock market during the past 16 years, especially in real terms, may be due to factors more fundamental than those often perceived.
 
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the effects of a rise in defense spending on key macroeconomic variables since September 11, 2001. For examining the effects of the rise in defense spending, empirical models were developed for GDP, employment, trade deficit, and budget deficit. In addition to estimation results, simulations were made to assess the effect of defense spending employing the empirical models. Findings reveal that the rise in defense spending had a favorable impact on GDP and employment but led to larger trade and budget deficits.
 
Previous research that has tried to identify the determinants of income inequality has used cross-sectional data, mostly due to a lack of time-series data for individual countries. Any result using cross-sectional data is usually generalized by ignoring country-specific characteristics. Now that time-series data are available for certain countries, we revisit the Kuznets "inverted-U" hypothesis by applying cointegration analysis to annual time-series data from 16 countries. We also investigate the effect of openness on income inequality. We find limited support for Kuznets's hypothesis, and that the effect of both income and openness varies by country.
 
A rich theoretical and empirical tradition exists in the economics liter- ature that argues that business cycle volatility is strongly and positively correlated with real per-capita economic growth. Joseph Schumpeter (1961) argues that economic development critically depends on the introduction and adoption of new technology which occurs in waves, and is therefore a main cause of business cycle volatility. Simon Kuznets (1967), addressing both the empirical and theoretical literature of his time (including Schumpeter's), concludes that business cycle volatility and economic growth are both statistically and causally related, with those variables that cause increased cyclical volatility increasing the rate of economic growth. The Schumpeter-Kuznets tradition maintains that a fall in business cycle volatility should result in a fall in the rate of economic growth. And, given the rate of population growth, this would invariably reduce the rate of per-capita economic growth. An important component of real business cycle theory, which incor- porates some of the most recent literature on business cycles, follows the Schumpeter-Kuznets tradition in arguing that real shocks to the economy, largely embodied in technical change, play the detennining role both in affecting business cycle volatility and in determining the rate of economic growth. Technological shocks take the form of a random walk with drift, thereby affecting the pace of economic growth.
 
The paper offers a time-series test of Thirlwall's Law for Brazil during the 1890-1973 period. The results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between Brazilian gross domestic product (GDP), terms-of-trade, and world income, as Thirlwall's Law predicts. In addition, an error correction model is estimated, which shows that adjusting toward Thirlwall's Law equilibrium explains a substantial part of total variation of real GDP in the short run.
 
Mainstream economists argue that unemployment can be reduced by deregulation of labor markets, that is, by easier firing, reduction of minimum wages and social benefits, and so forth. Our panel data analysis shows that wage-cost saving flexibilization of labor markets has a negative impact on labor productivity growth. A one percentage point change in growth rates of real wages leads to a change in labor productivity growth by 0.31-0.39 percentage points. This cannot solely be explained by hiring low-productive labor. Flexibilization of labor markets leads to a labor-intensive growth path that is problematic with an aging population in Europe.
 
J.K. Galbraith was a highly original theorist whose contributions deserve lasting recognition. Galbraith analyzed the significant economic power held by large firms, which underpinned the success of the U.S. economy in the post-World War II era. Galbraith highlighted how this concentration of power creates a range of unintended problemsâsocial and environmental. Galbraith recognized that firms manipulate the consumer and that their actions lead to the inequitable distribution of income and social goods. In response to this, the "good society" must secure the provision of essential goods and services that are not automatically forthcoming and mitigate macroeconomic problems such as financial instability, unemployment, inflation, and poverty.
 
The purpose of this analysis is to investigate three issues surrounding the Federal Reserve's doubling of reserve requirements between August 1936 and May 1937. First of all, arguments are offered that strengthen and complement L.G. Telser's analysis of how bank lending was affected by reserve ratio increases. Second, a unique money multiplier model is utilized to measure the impact of these policy changes on excess reserves and the money supply. Finally, the possible relationships between Fed policy changes and the recession of 1937-1938 are discussed, including the Friedman and Schwartz perspective.
 
This paper reviews John King's book on the history of Post Keynesian economics. The reviewers take two views in evaluating the book--one from an older Post Keynesian and the other from a younger Post Keynesian. The two views then comment on King's rendition of the intellectual and institutional history of Post Keynesian economics, each finding different strengths and weaknesses. This multifocus approach also reaches different positions about King's discussion of the traditional Post Keynesian topics of money, uncertainty, expectations, method, and the coherence debate. The paper ends with a discussion of King's vision of the future of Post Keynesian economics.
 
This paper discusses three controversial questions to which I was naturally led by the reading of John E. King's A History of Post Keynesian Economics Since 1936 (2002). First, did King unduly play down the role of the second generation of Post Keynesian economists? Second, how revolutionary were Keynes's writings, and how radical should Post Keynesian economics be? Finally, what is the future of Post Keynesian economics?
 
The Veterans' Bonus, enacted January 1936, disbursed nine-year nonmarketable U.S bonds with a 3 percent annual interest rate to 3 million World War I veterans when bank savings accounts paid 2.5 percent. The average bonus per person exceeded 30 percent of the mean household income for the veterans' age bracket. The June 1936 Federal deficit set a peacetime record of nearly one percent of annual gross national product. In two weeks that June, veterans cashed in 46 percent of their total bonus. The economic recovery in 1936 was more than 2.5 times greater than in the preceding two years. The June 1937 redemptions, 45 percent of the 1936 amount, had less effect.
 
Despite compelling arguments by Lester Telser, the myth continues that the recession of 1937-38 was caused by the Federal Reserve's three increases in reserve requirements from 1936 to 1937. Telser argued that banks were able to significantly increase lending prior to the recession by using asset substitutionânamely, switching from government securities to loans. This analysis reinforces Telser's position by comparing the behavior of member banks, which were subject to reserve requirement increases, to the behavior of nonmember banks, which were not constrained by such increases.
 
Real wage growth restraint is generally regarded as a necessary condition for sustained gross domestic product growth and lower unemployment in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). We use a general Keynesian growth model, allowing demand growth to be wage led or profit led, to argue that the case for real wage restraint is based on weak foundations. The model is applied to eight OECD countries (1960-2000). We find that (1) demand is wage led in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom, and (2) the decline in world trade growth is the dominant cause of sluggish growth in all economies, including profit-led Japan and the United States.
 
Growth rate in wage share for 15 high-income countries (HP filter)
Scatter of growth rates in labor productivity and real wages for 15 high-income countries (HP filter)
Sigma convergence in union density for 15 high-income countries (OECD)
The question of a constant wage share (Bowley's Law) has long been both an empirical and theoretical point of contention between rival theories of macroeconomic (functional) distribution. This paper explores some of these theoretical debates and issues related to Bowley's Law in contextualizing a simple empirical test of the real wage productivity elasticity of a cross section of 15 advanced economies across the 34-year period from 1963 to 1996. The evidence supports the hypothesis of a structural break in functional distribution on or around 1979 when real wages exhibit productivity inelasticity and the share of wages in national income starts a downward trajectory almost across the board. This is especially striking given the wide variety of labor market institutions and conditions across the 15 advanced economies. The paper concludes by posing the question that in light of the evidence presented perhaps a possible rethinking is in order (especially vis-Ã -vis possible national union strategies) regarding Marx's predictions on the fate of the working class as capitalism progresses.
 
Terms of trade and real exchange rate, 1970-99
Dynamic multipliers of the nominal exchange rate, 1991-99
We argue that the main constraint for the Mexican economy to grow remains inside the structural deficit of the current account as well as in the real exchange rate level. An annual structural econometric model (1970-99) (estimated through weighted two-stage least squares) is estimated to identify the determinants of the four balances that constitute the current account balance. The main objective is to detect only long-run relationships and, consequently, to analyze the sensibility of the overall system to the exchange rate. By doing this, we enforce the introspective features of Thirlwall's Law through what may be called the "extended exchange rate Thirlwall's Law." A detailed analysis of the joint residuals coming out from the structural estimations are performed in order to demonstrate that all the variables involved in the behavioral equations are cointegrated, since they are all "white noise" and normally distributed.
 
In this paper, the results of an export-led growth strategy accompanied by a trade liberalization policy implemented in Mexico are analyzed for various periods between 1978 and 2000. The input-output analysis is used to determine the effects of growing exports on gross output and on the level of employment. The results of this analysis allowed us to conclude that the positive effect of increasing manufacturing exports on production is limited and offset by manufacturing imports, thus displacing domestic production. The positive effect of exports on direct and indirect employment is not as important as that of domestic production. However, these positive effects of exports are accentuated by the North American Free Trade Agreement.
 
The Keynesian price model depends especially on some microeconomic factors other than causality relationship between money supply and general price level. Departing from aggregate demand-augmented wage-cost markup version of the Keynesian model is analyzed by using cointegration analysis for the determination of the prices in Turkish private manufacturing industries for the 1980-2000 period. The results support a long-run relationship among prices and demand and unit wage cost, and have also found positive pressure on prices from demand and unit wage cost. Findings are consistent with the Keynesian theoretical expectation.
 
This paper examines the endogenous money supply hypothesis in the Malaysian environment from 1985 to 2000. The results are consistent with the Post Keynesian hypothesis, whereby the money supply in Malaysia was endogenous over the study period. The empirical results also showed a long-run cointegrating relationship between money income and the M3 money supply in Malaysia. While this supports the liquidity preference approach, causality between the total bank loans and the M3 money supply may also support the accommodationist view. However, the results did not support the structuralist approach, nor did it show opposition to this approach.
 
The point of this paper is that the introduction of variable returns to scale in Lucas's 1988 model can produce paradoxical results: there can be negative relationships between the rate of growth of income and the rate of growth of human capital, between physical and human capital, and between the rate of growth of human capital and the rate of growth of wages. Moreover, the author argues the following "ontological paradox": the main equations of Lucas's 1988 model depend on the cardinal measurability of the external effects of human capital represented by a variable that is not cardinally measurable.
 
Since unification, the debate about Germany's poor economic performance has focused on supply-side weaknesses, and the associated reform agenda sought to make low-skill labour markets more flexible. We question this diagnosis using three lines of argument. First, effective restructuring of the supply side in the core advanced industries was carried out by the private sector using institutions of the coordinated economy, including unions, works councils and blockholder owners. Second, the implementation of orthodox labour market and welfare state reforms created a flexible labour market at the lower end. Third, low growth and high unemployment are largely accounted for by the persistent weakness of domestic aggregate demand, rather than by the failure to reform the supply side. Strong growth in recent years reflects the successful restructuring of the core economy. To explain these developments, we identify the external pressures on companies in the context of increased global competition, the continuing value of the institutions of the coordinated market economy to the private sector and the constraints imposed on the use of stabilizing macroeconomic policy by these institutions. We also suggest how changes in political coalitions allowed orthodox labour market reforms to be implemented in a consensus political system.
 
The 2008 financial crisis and its economic downturn have reignited the fierce debate about the financial liberalization and its implications on economic growth, especially in the realm of the developing countries. In this paper, we focus on this line of research, contributing in two main ways. First, we present an alternative method to measure financial liberalization, based on the same International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual reports most studies currently use as source of data. Second, we use panel data for a group of relevant emerging countries in Latin America and East Asia, including the new proxy in an attempt to test its effects on economic growth during the recent period (1990-2004). The more reliable index has not changed the main consensus on the subject, though, as results are in accordance with the prevalent thesis on the literature, that is, the link between financial liberalization and economic growth might not be as strong as may be supposed in theory. This means the other basic theoretical determinants must instead be observed to spur growth, while countries should observe the Keynesian agenda of stabilizing international finance through the introduction of limits to the free mobility of capital flows, as IMF economists have recently supported.
 
This paper reviews the Japanese growth recession from 1991 to 2001 and the recent U.S. financial crisis to determine the relevancy of the "liquidity trap" hypothesis (due originally to Keynes updated by Krugman) and a Minsky crisis hypothesis. To evaluate the Minsky hypothesis, we use the same data series that he used in his 1986 analysis and follow in his footsteps. These data clearly show increasing financial stress and fragility by 2005 in the United States. We find that elements of both hypotheses are useful in describing economic conditions and thus guiding policy choices. Current Fed policy in vastly expanding its balance sheet to support the financial sector is just the sort of policy that Minsky might have advocated.
 
This paper analyzes the causes behind the Bulgarian financial crisis of 1996 and 1997. IMF staff economists and the policy adopted by the IMF focuses on a monetary explanation for banking and financial crises in transitional economies. Accordingly, the solution they offer is a monetary solution-- specifically, a currency board. Currency boards in effect force governments to adhere to a specific monetary rule. This prevents the development of necessary central bank functions. The paper argues that the financial crisis in Bulgaria was due to poor banking regulation and the problems associated with valuing capital assets in transitional economies. The crisis was therefore not caused by purely monetary phenomena such as too much liquidity. Rather, it was the outcome of the interaction of chaotic hysteresis and financial fragility.
 
This paper builds on Hyman Minsky's financial fragility hypothesis to develop a financial fragility index for the public-sector financial structure. It applies the financial fragility index for the public-sector financial structure to analyze Brazil's public-sector financial structure from 2000 to 2008. The paper concludes that Brazil's financial structure was speculative during the 2000s. As a result, public debt increased during this period, and the public sector was unable to adopt countercyclical fiscal policies.
 
Recent developments in macroeconomic policy, both in terms of theory and practice, have elevated monetary policy while fiscal policy has been downgraded. Monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument, along with the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. Elsewhere we have critically examined the significance of this shift, which led us to question the effectiveness of monetary policy. We have also explored the role of fiscal policy and have argued that fiscal policy should be reinstated. This contribution aims to consider further that particular conclusion. We consider at length fiscal policy within the current "new consensus" theoretical framework. We find the proposition of this thinking, that fiscal policy provides at best a limited role, unconvincing. We examine the possibility of crowding out and the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem (RET). A short review of quantitative estimates of fiscal policy multipliers gives credence to our theoretical conclusions. Our overall conclusion is that, under specified conditions, fiscal policy is a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy.
 
Personal Outlays (Billions of Dollars)  
2008 REBATE
Personal Outlays (Billions of Dollars)  
ACTUAL QUARTERLY AMOUNTS
Personal Outlays (Billions of Dollars)  
Did the 2008 rebate fail to stimulate consumer spending? In their recent influential AER articles, John Taylor and Martin Feldstein each claim that BEA aggregate time series data show that the 2008 rebate failed. Re-examining the BEA data, we find that the data instead show there is a high probability that the rebate stimulated consumption. Moreover, the hypothesis that a rebate has half the impact of ordinary disposable income cannot be rejected. Thus, we find that analysis of the BEA aggregate time series data is consistent with the conclusion from the micro-data studies that the 2008 rebate stimulated consumer spending.
 
In the debate on monetary policy strategies on the two sides of the Atlantic, it is now almost commonplace to contrast the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) by pointing out the flexibility and capacity to adjust of the former and the rigidity and extreme caution of the latter, and its obsession with low inflation. In looking at the foundations of the two banks' strategies, however, we do not find differences that can provide a simple explanation for their divergent behavior, nor, above all, for the very different economic performance in the United States and Euroland in recent years. Not surprisingly, both central banks share the same conviction that money is neutral in the long run, and even their short-term policies are based on similar fundamental principles. The two policy approaches really differ only in terms of implementation, timing, competence, and so on, but not in terms of the underlying theoretical orientation. We then draw the conclusion that monetary policy cannot represent a significant variable in the explanation of the different economic performances of Euroland and the United States. The two economic areas' differences must be explained by considering other factors, among which the most important is fiscal policy.
 
This paper examines Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's recipe for deflation fighting and the specific policy actions he took in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Both in his academic and policy work, Bernanke has made the case that monetary policy is able to stem deflationary forces largely because of its "fiscal components," and that governments such as those in the United States or Japan face no constraints in financing these fiscal components. On the other hand, he has recently expressed strong concerns with the size of the federal budget deficit, calling for its reversal in the name of financial sustainability. This paper argues that these positions are fundamentally at odds with each other and resolves the paradox by arguing on theoretical and technical grounds that there are no fundamental differences in financing conventional government spending programs and what Bernanke considers to be the fiscal components of monetary policy.
 
This paper aims at interpreting some of the many simplifying assumptions adopted by Keynes to explain, in the >i>General Theory>/i>, liquidity preference, interest rate, portfolio decisions, and volume of investment. It is suggested that Keynes emphasized a >i>partial and particular>/i> model that should be understood as part of a wider theory and a much wider view.
 
Hyman Minsky suggested a possible channel through which monetary policy could affect the economy. He asserted that rising interest rates due to contractionary monetary policy compromised the balance sheets of firms that had financed long-term positions in illiquid assets with short-term borrowing. As interest rates rose, the debt service costs of a project increased relative to the present discounted value of its future revenue streams. A model based on Minsky's theory confirms its plausibility. The model also shows that anti-inflationary policy potentially destabilizes if used too aggressively. A vector autoregression analysis suggests that postwar U.S. data are consistent with Minsky's theory.
 
Less than 20 years ago, the Irish economy was tired and sluggish, suffering from double-digit unemployment and stagnating incomes. Today, Ireland's "Celtic tiger" economy is one of the fastest growing in the world, exceeding average EUper capita income levels and boasting a thriving technology industry and productivity levels that are among the highest in Europe. In this study, we present a continuous-time disequilibrium model to explain economic growth in Ireland. In particular, we try to identify the key factors explaining the "Irish miracle" by developing a demand-oriented growth accounting methodology based on the balance-of-payments-constraint theory.
 
This paper presents a stock-flow model of two economies (together comprising the whole world) that trade goods and financial assets with one another. The first part of the paper describes a single economy on a fixed exchange rate, with no private capital flows, in order to obtain simple analytic solutions that display the basic constraints and forces at work--notably, endogenous "sterilization." The second part describes a flexible exchange rate model, with two economies trading financial assets as well as merchandise. A final section adapts the two-country model to describe a fixed exchange rate regime. Our findings challenge established results, such as those of the Mundell- Fleming model.
 
The 2008 U.S. financial upheaval raises important questions about the sources of household consumption and debt growth, along with their macroeconomic effects. We argue that spending and financial preferences evolve as social norms interact with both cultural trends and institutional changes in household finance. We identify historical forces that raised consumption and debt over the past quarter century and interpret these events with Hyman Minsky's financial cycle framework. Strong consumption helped moderate recessions and boost growth since the mid 1980s. But unprecedented household debt has now culminated in a financial crisis that threatens to cause a deep recession.
 
An attempt is made to evaluate the neoclassical and Post Keynesian approaches to exchange rate determination, represented respectively by the flexible price monetary model and a version of the flow model that takes into account market psychology, resulting in a bandwagon effect. For this purpose, nonnested model selection tests and measures of predictive accuracy are used to evaluate the two models. Based on monthly data covering four different exchange rates and the determining variables over the period 1990-2004, the results reveal the superiority of the Post Keynesian model.
 
This paper aims at investigating to what extent there is a differentiated regional banking strategy in the Brazilian economy. Based on the Post Keynesian theory of regional liquidity preference (Dow, 1993), the paper analyzes consolidated balance sheets of bank branches located in different Brazilian regions. Through the analysis of indicators built using this database, the paper finds evidence to support the thesis that the Brazilian banking system's strategies are heterogeneous across the territory. Furthermore, we conclude that this behavior reinforces existing uneven regional patterns of development of the economy.
 
John Kenneth Galbraith might be considered the unknown founding father of our collective attempt to build a "PEKEA" (Political and Ethical Knowledge in Economic Activities). As a matter of fact, he has developed a "political and moral philosophy" conception to study economic activities. Compared to existing knowledge, his thought requires not less than a new paradigm. This paper draws, from Galbraith's work, an explicit presentation of the main pillars of this paradigm versus the mainstream. Galbraith is considered as a comprehensive source to reassess value and power, to bring into the picture an ethical and political approach to economic activities.
 
The premise is that, as a member of the World Trade Organization, China's industrial trade practices are consistent with the principle of specialization in accordance with the principle of comparative advantage. Yet the trade reforms that were undertaken since the end of the Cultural Revolution (1976) have made direct foreign and joint investment primary vehicles for promoting export-centered industries that have become increasingly capital-intensive rather than labor-intensive. This paper argues that these reforms reflect policy initiatives that are more consistent with Verdoorn's Law and Adam Smith's "vent for surplus" principle than with the efficiency principles of conventional Ricardo-Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory.
 
In a monetary union, such as the euro zone, adjustments facing asymmetric evolutions are more difficult due to fixed intra-European exchange rates. Well-integrated capital markets, with portfolio diversification and intrazone credit, would constitute a powerful adjustment mechanism, according to the "international risk-sharing" approach. A different approach is adopted, based on a "stock-flow consistent" model of a monetary union along the lines of Godley and Lavoie (2007). Two results can be underlined. Holding foreign assets has a stabilizing role, but the capital income stabilizing coefficient seems small. By contrast, intrazone credit seems to have no specific stabilization effects.
 
Study sample characteristics
Results of logistic regression
The objective of this paper is to empirically test the hypothesis that reducing uncertainty for farmers through investment in human capital increases the likelihood of participation in an agroforestry development program. A model based on Keynes's notion of profit expectations and "weight" is developed in order to gain some insight into agroforestry adoption behavior. Data was collected near the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve in the state of Campeche in southeastern Mexico. One hundred seventy-five farmers were interviewed from January through March of 1998. Results support the hypothesis that human capital investment improves the likelihood of participation in an agroforestry development program.
 
Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we compare the pay of workers employed on the minimum wage contour to the pay of similar workers in other jobs. We also examine whether the minimum wage increases of 1990 and 1991 narrow the pay gap. We find that characteristics of minimum wage contour workers explain most of their relative pay disadvantage; however, from 1986 to 1990, a residual wage gap of 5.0 to 5.8 percent emerged. The increases in the minimum wage help to slow the gap's widening.
 
This paper proposes a labor-adverse selection model where labor quality within an individual firm negatively depends upon the average working hours in the market. Under this setting, labor quality is a "pure public good" by nature, and the free market equilibrium will result in inefficient allocation with underprovision. We show that shorter workweek regulations will increase the provision of the public good (labor quality), and the higher labor quality will increase firms' profits and employment. Shorter workweek regulations may therefore increase the firms' profits as well as the workers' employment and bring about a Pareto improvement.
 
The paper attempts to identify a coherent Post Keynesian approach to advertising. Although the neoclassical explanation of advertising cost is encapsulated by the DorfmanâSteiner theorem, and static in character, the Post Keynesian theory provides a realistic and dynamic framework within which advertising can be viewed as strategic investment of firms, financed by their retained profits. The empirical part of the paper analyzes the impact of the flow of profits on advertising outlays for firms in a transition economy and the results confirm the relevance of the Post Keynesian approach.
 
This paper suggests that heterodox economists should not think of themselves as economists first, and only secondarily as heterodox, and must emphasize methodological issues, in particular the different assumptions (or axioms) implicit in their theories vis-Ã -vis the mainstream. The paper argues that the notion of a cutting edge of the mainstream, which is breaking up with orthodoxy, is misleading. The role of the cutting edge is to allow the mainstream to sound reasonable when talking about reality, while orthodoxy provides authority to the cutting edge. The cutting edge is essential for the mainstream and remains firmly based on orthodox grounds.
 
The main purpose of this paper is to describe South Africa's money supply process along several competing, but not mutually exclusive, theoretical paradigms over the period 1966-1997. The most important conclusion to be drawn from the empirical results is that irrespective of the monetary system at the time, the money supply process in South Africa is endogenously determined. The empirical analysis further shows that the inability of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to reach predetermined M3 monetary growth targets on a consistent basis since the mid 1980s is the direct result of an endogenous money supply and not, as a previous study claims, because of an unstable M3 velocity. Although the M3 velocity is stable over the whole period 1966-1997, money income determined an endogenous money supply, so that the M3 money supply lost its effectiveness as a leading indicator for monetary policy. The policy implication is that the SARB controlled the M3 money supply indirectly over the period 1980-1997, through an increase in interest rates, and at the potential cost of a slowdown in economic activity.
 
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