The purpose of this study is to determine, with a dynamic simultaneous equations model, the relative importance of the most significant socioeconomic forces leading to the large-scale labor migration from the South to the North of Italy from 1952 to 1976, and to analyze its implications for the past and prospective development of the South. The model is estimated by Full Information Maximum Likelihood, validated by dynamic simulation, stressing dynamic policy simulations, and also presenting the results of some forecasting.
This study examines the thesis that political institutions and the freedoms and civil rights generated by these institutions affect migration decisions. The hypothesis is based on one stated by Adam Smith in 1776, that economic conditions that reflect greater political freedoms and civil liberties harbor higher levels of resource mobility in response to economic incentives. Pooled cross-sectional and time-series analysis is based on data from the World Bank for 32 African countries during 1972-87. Findings support the hypothesis that migration rate is more affected by the expected returns ratio to labor in countries where civil liberties are greater than in nations with fewer civil liberties. The implication, from the inclusion of institutional factors in the model, is that civil liberties have an indirect impact on the rate of labor migration out of agriculture in Africa. The impact is a mix of economic incentives and civil liberties. In the political rights model, the most free countries had the largest migration elasticity. The findings on political rights impacts support findings by Friedman and McMillan that civil liberties are a more important determinant of economic growth than political rights. Further testing for measurement error confirmed that the data were flawed, but not so greatly that the basic findings were overturned. The migration out of African agriculture was found to be sensitive to the effect of price signals, which were conditioned by the degree of political rights and civil liberties. Policy makers are urged to consider both changes in pricing and institutions.
A study is conducted in attempts to increase the understanding of the links between macroeconomic effects and causes of population growth in formulating policy. An overlapping generations general equilibrium model is employed aggregating household decisions about fertility, savings, and investment in the human capital of children with the objective of studying intertemporal relationships among population growth, income distribution, inter-generation social mobility, skill composition of the labor force, and household income. As a result of endogenous fertility, the equilibrium path attains steady state from the second generation. Income tax transfer, child taxation, and social security taxation policies are also examined in the paper. A structural explanation is given for the inverse household income-child quantity and negative child quality-quantity relationships seen in developing countries. In a Cobb-Douglas economy, these relationships hold in the short-run, potentially working over the long-run in other economies. Overall, the model shows that group interests may hinder emergence of perfect capital markets with private initiatives. Where developing countries are concerned, these results have strong implications for population policy. A policy mix of building good quality schools, or subsidizing rural education, introducing a formal social security program, and providing high-yield, risk-free investments, banking, and insurance services to the poor is recommended.
This paper assesses the role of social affiliation, measured by caste, in shaping investments in child health. The special setting that we have chosen for the analysis - tea estates in the South Indian High Range - allows us to control nonparametrically for differences in income, access to health services, and patterns of morbidity across low caste and high caste households. In this controlled setting, low caste households spend more on their children's health than high caste households, reversing the pattern we would expect to find elsewhere in India. Moreover, health expenditures do not vary by gender within either caste group, in contrast once again with the male preference documented throughout the country. A simple explanation, based on differences in the returns to human capital across castes in the tea estates is proposed to explain these striking results.
Economic globalization will give many women in developing countries access to steady and relatively remunerative employment for the first time, potentially shifting bargaining power within their households and changing the choices that are made for their children. This paper exploits a unique setting - a group of tea plantations in South India where women are employed in permanent wage labor and where incomes do not vary by caste - to anticipate the impact of globalization on mobility across social groups in the future. The main result of the paper is that a relative increase in female income weakens the family's ties to the ancestral community and the traditional economy, but these mobility enhancing effects are obtained for certain historically disadvantaged castes alone. Although the paper provides a context-specific explanation for why the women from these castes emerge as agents of change, the first general implication of the analysis is that the incentive and the ability of women to use their earnings to influence household decisions depends importantly on their social background. The second implication is that historically disadvantaged groups may, in fact, be especially responsive to new opportunities precisely because they have fewer ties to the traditional economy to hold them back.
This paper presents a renewable resource model of soil fertility with a nonconvexity in the net benefit function. In this setting, recurring cycles of cropping and fallow can be the optimal soil management strategy. The model is used to illuminate the Boserup discussion of agricultural development, in which population growth leads to agricultural intensification, defined as an increase in cropping frequency. Previous formal models of the Boserup hypothesis focus on the land-labor ratio rather than cropping frequency and have not directly incorporated soil fertility dynamics. These models assume a convex production technology and are not optimistic about the prospect for agricultural development without technological progress. This paper explicitly models soil fertility dynamics and demonstrates that nonconvexities in the production technology are an important feature of the use of long fallow periods for soil management. As population grows, and the demand for food increases, the importance of the nonconvexity diminishes and more frequent cropping becomes economical. Given a nonconvexity in the production technology, it is possible, though not necessary, that average labor productivity increases with agricultural intensification. Thus, it is possible to reconcile the greater labor requirement of intensive farming with an increase in average labor productivity. In addition, Boserup argued that a larger and denser population facilitates the development of economic and social infrastructure which improve agricultural productivity.
Ester Boserup's challenging counter-Malthusian theory of growth of primitive agriculture is formalized in a continuous time framework that permits investigation of the long-run properties of such a closed economy. It is discovered that from any initial conditions there are two asymmetric outcomes that are possible. The implications of the theory are further extended to Karl Polanyi's now classic argument concerning structural transformation as an economic system makes the transition from feudalism to capitalism and to Walter Rodney's claims about the origins of African underdevelopment.
More than 1% of people of sub-Saharan Africa aged 15-49 years are infected with HIV, with over half likely to develop AIDS in the next decade. As rates of HIV infection continue to climb, there will be staggering financial consequences to bear in the years ahead in terms of high medical treatment costs and crippled macroeconomies. The authors employ a modified Solow growth model to simulate the impact of the AIDS epidemic on output capacity and other key macroeconomic aggregates in Malawi. They compare a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario to medium and extreme AIDS projections and find that average real GDP growth over the 1985-2010 period will be 0.2-0.3 percentage points lower in the medium case and 1.2-1.5% lower in the extreme case relative to the no-AIDS case. The size of the economy by 2010 will therefore be reduced from a real GDP of 5.03 billion (constant 1985) Kwacha without AIDS to 4.81-4.77 and 3.80-3.46 billion Kwacha in the medium and extreme scenarios, respectively.
"Nutrients available to children are determined largely by intrahousehold allocations. There are a number of reasons why birth order may affect these allocations. A model is developed to estimate critical parameters of parental preferences regarding the allocation of nutrients among their children. Latent variable estimates for rural south India indicate that parental preferences have productivity-equity tradeoffs and parents favor older children. The productivity-equity tradeoff, however, is much less for the lean season. Therefore, when food is scarcest, parents follow more closely a pure investment strategy, exposing their more vulnerable children to greater malnutrition risk."
The state of general empirical knowledge of the extent of and trends in intrafirm international trade are surveyed with attention concentrated on United States and Canadian data sources. Focus is on conceptual and definitional distinctions, U.S. trade with U.S. majority-owned foreign affiliates, U.S. related-party imports, international subcontracting and value added tariffs, aggregative data from individual developing countries, and customs documents as micro-level data soruces. In this effort to outline the reasons for the growing concern with the phenomenon of intrafirm trade and to summarize the most readily available data on its nature and growth, the following were among the important points made: 1) it is essential to arrive at clear and uniform definitions as to what is meant by "intrafirm trade"; 2) the share of U.S. non-petroleum imports from developing countries which originates in majority-owned foreign affiliates of U.S. firms is declining; 3) very high proportions of some U.S. imports from developing countries originate with "related parties," and there are frequently large differences between import unit values in related-party trade and those in non-related-party trade; 4) international subcontracting, as indicated by the usage of value added tariff provisions, continues to be a rapidly growing element in manufactured goods trade between the U.S. and developing countries; and 5) further data should be collected and empirical research conducted.
"The purpose of this paper is to establish the existence of economic cycles in Rodriguez's descriptive growth model with brain drain. We guarantee limit cycles in the case of minimum wages in the unskilled sector. The expression, period and stability conditions of the economic cycle are explicitly given."
"In this paper, we consider the brain drain problem arising from the possibility of signaling and individual's two-stage decision procedures within an asymmetric information framework. Where the ranking of the universities provides a signal to domestic employers, our results indicate that, at rational expectations equilibrium, there is an association between students of a particular quality and corresponding qualities of universities they will choose to attend to attain Ph.D.'s. Moreover, we can predict whether these graduating Ph.D.'s choose to return home or remain abroad."
This paper analyzes the interaction between income distribution, human capital accumulation and migration. It shows that when migration is not a certainty, a brain drain may increase average productivity and equality in the source economy even though average productivity is a positive function of past average levels of human capital in an economy. It is also shown how the temporary possibility of emigration may permanently increase the average level of productivity of an economy. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.
This paper uses longitudinal employment survey data to analyze the impact of household economic shocks on the schooling and employment transitions of young people in metropolitan Brazil. The paper uses data on over 100,000 children ages 10-16 from Brazil's Monthly Employment Survey (PME) from 1982 to 1999. Taking advantage of the rotating panels in the PME, we compare households in which the male household head becomes unemployed during a four-month period with households in which the head is continuously employed. Probit regressions indicate that an unemployment shock significantly increases the probability that a child enters the labor force, drops out of school, and fails to advance in school. The effects can be large, implying increases of as much as 50% in the probability of entering employment for 16-year-old girls. In contrast, shocks occurring after the school year do not have significant effects, suggesting that these results are not due to unobserved characteristics of households that experience unemployment shocks. The results suggest that some households are not able to absorb short-run economic shocks, with negative consequences for children.
"Sen's classic work on the choice of capital intensity of investment is generalized in the light of new theoretical developments and empirical findings concerning rural-to-urban migration in LDCs. This is done by explicitly incorporating a migration function into the basic choice model. Revised conditions for maximization of surplus are derived and compared with Sen's original condition. Some justification for the particular migration function used in the presence of risk-aversion is suggested."
"This paper deals with questions about the effects of immigrants on three types of capital: the private capital immigrants work with, the public (government) capital that immigrant workers use, and the public capital used for services by immigrants." The geographic focus is on the United States. The authors conclude that although the average cost to natives in 1975 dollars to provide services for immigrants is 4,172 dollars, this amount "is considerably smaller than the benefits of immigrants to natives through their relatively low use of welfare services and their relatively high contribution of taxes." Comments by Jacob Mincer (pp. 95-7) are included.
This research analyzes longitudinal data from the Philippines based on a sample of over 3,000 mother-infant pairs covering a period from the mother's pregnancy until the age two. The econometric methods alleviate problems, including unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity of important explanatory factors, and exploit the longitudinal nature of the data set. The results indicate that a group of individual, household, and community factors importantly affect the outputs of the child health production function - diarrhea, febrile respiratory infection, and weight - by affecting the behaviors and inputs which produce these health outcomes.
Conflict between and within countries can have lasting health and economic consequences, but identifying such effects can be empirically challenging. This paper uses household survey data from Eritrea to estimate the effect of exposure to the 1998-2000 Eritrea-Ethiopia war on children's health. The identification strategy exploits exogenous variation in the conflict's geographic extent and timing and the exposure of different birth cohorts to the fighting. The unique survey data include details on each household's migration history, which allows us to measure a child's geographic location during the war and without which war exposure would be incorrectly classified. War-exposed children have lower height-for-age Z-scores, with similar effects for children born before or during the war. Both boys and girls who are born during the war experience negative impacts due to conflict. Effects are robust to including region-specific time trends, alternative conflict exposure measures, and mother fixed effects.
A microeconomic model of the process by which infants and preschoolers are subject to malnourishment, diarrhea and other illnesses in developing countries is given. The model is econometrically based of a cross-section time-series for 1200 children from Candelaria, Colombia. Four primary issues are addressed: economic constraints and intra-family resource allocation decisions impacting on a child's nutritional and health status; the interrelationship between malnutrition, diarrhea, and other diseases; specific policy interventions (maternal-child health education, food supplementation and the encouragement of breast feeding) impacting on health and nutritional status; and the need to distinguish between the effect of different policy variables on a child's height and weight during infancy and preschool age. The observations were taken over a 7 year period during the Promotora maternal-child health program in Colombia.
The authors investigate the determinants of child mortality and health and nutrition status in Nicaragua using economic models of household behavior. In particular, they examine regional differences by degree of urbanization. Various factors affecting child mortality are considered. The results indicate that "income is not an important factor, there is an inverse relation with number of siblings, and there are positive associations with calorie intake, schooling (except in the relatively low-income areas), the availability of refrigeration, and the quality of sewage systems."
"A commonly cited motive for childbearing in LDCs is the support in old age provided by one's children. Alternative means of retirement support become available as a country develops. This paper presents a simple two period model in which financial institutions are allowed to substitute for children in the provision of this service. The 'quality' of financial institutions is given an operational definition and the hypotheses of the model are tested on a cross-section sample of countries."
The existing literature on household demand for children in developing countries focuses on women's choice of different types of market activity. Many types of work in the informal sector are considered to be more compatible with child care because they put less demands on women's time. The presence of such compatibility effects is used to explain why women's wage rates or labor force participation rates are not always negatively related to the fertility rates. However, households in the informal sector may own a family business, which can lead them to have a greater demand for children because child labor can be more productively employed in the family enterprise. Consequently, not only is wife's choice of market activity type important in determining fertility demand, but so is husband's choice. The new emphasis is on men's role. Micro data from the urban sector of Hong Kong are used to test for the presence of both the compatibility and child labor effects on fertility demand with positive results. Our study shows that incorporating husband's choice of market activity type can be important in the analysis of fertility demand in developing countries.
Reasons for the high correlation between city size and educational attainment in developing countries are explored. "Two explanations are examined. First, the types of goods produced in larger cities require relatively high skill labor inputs. Second, public and perhaps private services demanded by higher skill people are only offered in larger cities. The paper econometrically tests these hypotheses for Brazil, estimating the elasticities of substitution (or typically complementarity) between high and low skill labor and the 'bright lights' effect for high versus low skill labor."
"Labor emigration redistributes income in a two factor, two good economy where one good is internationally non-traded. Labor's nominal wage rises as nominal capital payments fall. Recent research has shown that the prices of non-traded goods rise, causing society's welfare to decline. Here the induced change in the real income of each factor is considered separately. There is an ambiguity with regard to the real income of non-emigrating labor. If labor spends a relatively small fraction of income on the non-traded goods, its real income may rise, even though society suffers the loss of welfare."
"Estimated returns to schooling investments can be misleading if migration causes significant shifts in population distribution across time. Data gathered in rural Philippine communities show that the more educated and experienced individuals are more likely to outmigrate, causing a sample selection bias in the estimation of wage equations. The observed wages were then lower than the conditional population mean of an entire cohort residing originally in the area. Controlling for self-selection, the wage returns to schooling and experience were higher, Finally, the sample selectivity variable accounts substantially for the difference in the wages of men and women."
Finding an efficient method for sampling micro- and small-enterprises (MSEs) for research and statistical reporting purposes is a challenge in developing countries, where registries of MSEs are often nonexistent or outdated. This lack of a sampling frame creates an obstacle in finding a representative sample of MSEs. This study uses computer simulations to draw samples from a census of businesses and non-businesses in the Tshwane Municipality of South Africa, using three different sampling methods: the traditional probability sampling method, the compact segment sampling method, and the World Health Organization's Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) sampling method. Three mechanisms by which the methods could differ are tested, the proximity selection of respondents, the at-home selection of respondents, and the use of inaccurate probability weights. The results highlight the importance of revisits and accurate probability weights, but the lesser effect of proximity selection on the samples' statistical properties.
"We use Tanzanian data to test a recently proposed hypothesis that rural-to-urban migrants have an incentive to supply greater work effort than native urban workers, because of the migrants' positive probability of returning to the low-wage rural areas. We treat the choice between public- and private-sector employment as endogenous and, for theoretical and empirical reasons, distinguish migrants with access to rural land from those without access. Our results show that migrants in both sectors face lower initial wage offers than native urban workers. But, the wage gap is eliminated within a decade or less, and thereafter, migrants surpass the wage offers of native workers."
"The temporary and repetitive character of contemporary labor migration is explained by assuming that immigrants have a preference for location. A life-cyle model of immigrant behavior is developed to determine net lifetime income, total time allocated to home-country and foreign-country residence, and the number of migratory trips. Because of income effects, home wages and foreign wages are not symmetric in their effect on the location of work effort. It is also shown that changes in travelling costs have predictable consequences for the number of border crossings, but not for the total time spent in the foreign labor market." The emphasis is on labor migration to developed countries.
Although the impact of demographic variables on economic development is an issue of great concern, population characteristics have not been systematically analyzed in the literature on tax ratios and economic development. This paper examines the issue of demographic effects on tax ratios using a cross-section econometric model derived from simple structural relationships, permitting inferences to be made regarding the strengths of supply versus demand influences on tax ratios.
"This note extends the work of Rivera-Batiz to the case where capital is collectively owned and the decision to emigrate entails both a withdrawal of labor services from the source-country and the surrender of the ownership of capital. In this framework, which seems to have wide real-world relevance for socialist, labor-managed and peasant economies, it is found that emigration helps increase the welfare of the non-migrant. This result, which seems quite robust to its specifications, is exactly the opposite of that of Rivera-Batiz and points to the need for great caution in drawing policy conclusions with regard to issues pertaining to emigration."
Overwhelming urban migration occurred so rapidly in many developing countries that widespread unemployment and squalid living conditions are commonplace. For many of these countries, stopping urban migration has become a major policy. Two models propose 2 different theories of urban unemployment. Todaro's short-term effects model concludes that job creation actually causes unemployment. Todaro and Harris formulated a long-term effects model in which welfare subsidies create more employment and stimulate the economy. A real solution to urban job creation would include optimal allocation of investment between the rural and labor sectors. A once and for all hiring tax would reduce replacement hiring. It is impossible to design an optimal tax subsidy package for urban unemployment unless it includes knowledge of the dynamic response of migration and unemployment to the rate of net and gross hiring of labor. If subsidy taxes are levied on the agricultural sector, the net result may be a higher rate of capital formation in the (low social return) manufacturing sector and a lower one in the agricultural sector.
This paper has constructed a model of family migration which explains the rural-urban migration phenomena observed in developing countries more consistently than the existing analyses of migration. This framework determines the differences between the forces that affect family decisions and individual migration decisions. It is also shown how the aggregate flow of migration is affected if migration decisions are predominantly family decisions. Data from India have been used to suggest a method for empirical investigation of the incidence of family migration decisions.
This paper sets forth a procedure for calculating the annual efficiency gains from alternative changes in existing international immigration restrictions and evaluates the impact of wage rate changes on nonmigrating labor. Data on US gross national product (GNP)/capita across countries are used to infer differences in the marginal productivity both between countries and across major world trading areas. The method assumes that the worldwide labor supply is fixed, that full employment occurs in all regions, and that differences in labor's marginal product across regions arise because of barriers to inward mobility of labor in high-wage countries. When these barriers are removed, labor is assumed to be reallocated and efficiency gains occur. Results of the calculations suggest large gains from the removal of global immigration controls which, in most cases, exceed existing worldwide GNP generated in the presence of labor mobility restrictions. A large portion of the gain is accounted for by labor migration between the aggregated rich and poor countries. Over 40% of the total potential gain is realized when only 10% of the wage differential is eliminated, suggesting that small changes in global migration restrictions have large marginal effects. Wage rates increase in labor-losing regions and decline in labor-receiving regions, dramatizing the incentives for labor unions in high-wage countries to oppose liberalization of immigration restrictions. These results suggest large potential worldwide efficiency gains from a move toward an international labor market free of immigration controls. This issue may be far more important to the North-South debate than a focus on initiatives such as commodity price stabilization, relaxation of trade protection, or increased aid flows.
"This paper documents the trends in the earnings of Mexican immigrants during the 1970-1990 period. The empirical evidence indicates that there has been a decline in the relative wage of successive Mexican immigrant waves in the past three decades and that little wage convergence occurs between the typical Mexican immigrant and the typical native worker. The data also suggest that the increasing importance of Mexican immigration is partly responsible for the deterioration in relative skills observed in the aggregate immigrant population, but that there has also been a decline in relative skills even among non-Mexican immigrants."
"The paper analyzes the impact of external migration on the Yugoslav economy during the period 1965-1972. This is done by means of a macroeconometric model embodying various dualistic characteristics of Yugoslavia. A counterfactual simulation of the model is used to judge the impact of external migration. According to the indicators utilized, the simulation suggests that migration has been beneficial to Yugoslavia."
The relationship between population increase, economic growth, education and income inequality was examined in a cross-section study based on data from 26 developing and 2 developed countries. As other studies have noted, high population growth is associated with a less equal income distribution. A 1 percentage point reduction in the rate of population growth tends to raise the income share of the poorest 80% in the less developed world by almost 5 percentage points and is associated with a 1.7 percentage point increase in the income share of the poorest 40%. The relationship between short-run income growth and equality, on the other hand, is strong and positive. Estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the short-run rate of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) increases the income share of the bottom 80% by about 2 percentage points and that of the poorest 40% by almost 1 percentage point. Although higher mean schooling appears to be a mild equalizer, educational inequality does not appear to have an adverse effect on income distribution. Overall, these results challenge the widely held belief that there must be a growth-equity trade-off. Moreover, they suggest that the impact of educational inequality on income distribution may be different from that observed in earlier studies, implying a need for caution in using these earlier results as a basis for educational policy development.
"This paper demonstrates that differences in earnings between migrants and the native population may reflect differences in incentives rather than differences in characteristics. The analysis indicates that in the presence of a positive probability of return migration, migrants' work effort is higher than that of comparable native-born workers. This differential may explain why, even if all workers are perfectly homogeneous in skills, migrants often outperform the native-born workers in the receiving economy."
Return on assets (ROA) from household enterprise is crucial for understanding the well-being and productivity of households in developing economies. Yet the definition and measurement of household enterprise ROA remain inconsistent or unclear. We illustrate potential measurement problems with examples from various actual surveys. We then take advantage of a detailed integrated household survey to perform a robustness analysis, acting as if we had gathered less data than was actually the case, to see what matters and for whom. The three issues that matter most for accurate measurement of household enterprise ROA are the choice of accrual versus cash basis of income, the treatment of household's own labor in enterprise income, and the treatment of non-factor income. Also, this sensitivity matters most for a relatively poor region dominated by crop cultivation relative to a richer region with non-farm enterprises. Though the choice between accrued income and cash income matters less when the frequency of the data declines, there remains high sensitivity in longer-term and annualized data. We conclude the paper by providing recommendations on how to improve the survey questionnaires for more accurate measurement in field research.
"This paper examines the net effects of migration and remittances on income distribution. Potential home earnings of migrants are imputed, as are the earnings of non-migrants in migrant households, in order to construct no-migration counterfactuals to compare with the observed income distribution including remittances. The earnings functions used to impute migrant home earnings are estimated from observations on non-migrants in a selection-corrected estimation framework which incorporates migration choice and labor-force participation decisions. For a sample of households in Bluefields, Nicaragua, migration and remittances increase income inequality when compared with the no-migration counterfactual."
"Probabilistic migration models assume that search for urban jobs is entirely an urban-based activity and that employment in free-entry activities is a transitional phase during which migrants are actively searching for formal sector employment. This paper tests the empirical validity of these assumptions using data, collected by the author in a sample survey in Delhi [India] in 1975-76, on 1,400 migrants from rural areas." Evidence is presented "that the migration process postulated in probabilistic models is not realistic in the case of Delhi. Over one-half of the sample had moved to Delhi after lining up specific jobs; a sizeable proportion expected to enter on arrival activities generally considered to be characterized by freedom of entry; and the majority of entrants into free-activities did not search for alternative employment and were engaged in the same activities at the time of the survey."
This paper examines the relationship between various measures of household nutrition and fertility in Zaire (where malnutrition is rampant), in particular, the total effect of these nutrition measures on the length of time between births when infant mortality rates are held constant. Closed birth intervals (including average birth interval and length of 1st and 2nd closed birth intervals) and probability of occurrence of 2nd birth after the 1st birth, whether or not the 2nd birth occurred before the survey date, are examined to provide support to the hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between calorie consumption and interval between births. Data used for analysis are households (taken from the 1969 Socio-Economic Survey of Kinshasa) headed by a man with only 1 wife (aged 20-24 years at survey date). The main policy implication of the study is that rises in calorie consumption associated with the early stages of modernization may be expected to increase fertility in noncontracepting populations if there is no change in infant mortality rates. If infant mortlaity declines, the total effect of an increase in calorie consumption on the fertility of women is ambiguous. Another implication is that if calorie consumption can be held constant and protein consumption increases, both infant mortality and fertility may fall. A fall in infant mortality may result in a fall in fertility, although the average length of the period of postpartum amenorrhea may fall. A combined examination of similar data from other cities of Zaire and a cross time study of other data sets may help unravel the complex biological and behavioral determinants of fertility.
A autoregressive model is applied to personal migration and pregnancy histories recorded in the 1974 Korean World Fertility Survey to assess the adaptation effect of rural-urban migration on migrant fertility and national fertility levels. The objective of this study is to provide policy makers in developing nations with a model that will enable them to quantify the effects of rapid urbanization on the fertility level of migrant women and thus on national fertility levels. The fertility of rural-urban migrants is on the average lower than that of rural stayers; this study supports the adaptation hypothesis and indicates that rural-urban migrants experienced a significant reduction in 5 year fertility rates from those of comparable rural stayers after migration to the urban area. In addition, the city specific effects of migration on fertility are of considerable importance; migrants to larger cities adapt more over their lifetime than migrants to smaller cities. The completed adaptation by postmarital, rural-urban migrants is largest among migrants who are least educated. The autoregressive model controls the fertility level at the beginning of the observed period; it is assumed that this is a proxy for family size preferences. Results show that the completed fertility of migrant women with less than 4 years of school is 1.9 children fewer than that of comparable rural stayers, 1 child fewer for migrant women with 4 to 6 years of school, and .8 children fewer for migrant women with at least 6 years of school. For Korea, the overall effects on national fertility of rural-urban migration represent a reduction of 1.79 births per woman for the 1965-1970 period; it is estimated that the 945,400 rural-urban women migrants of this period would avoid, on average, 71,300 births annually for their expected average 24 years of urban life.
How do neighbors positively or negatively influence individuals living in rural Malawi to learn their HIV results? Using data of location of homes and distance to neighbors, we measure the social network effects of neighbors' learning their HIV results on individuals own learning. Using the fact that neighbors were randomly offered monetary incentives of varying amounts to learn their HIV results, we find positive effects of neighbors attending clinics on others living nearby: a 10 percentage point increase of the percentage of neighbors (approximately 2.4 individuals) learning their HIV results increases the probability of learning HIV results by 1.1 percentage points. The strongest network effects are among closest neighbors; we find no effect among religious social networks. We also find a negative interaction between direct cash incentives and peers: the effect of peers doubles among those who were not offered any individual financial incentive to learn their HIV results.
"Children's altruism toward parents is allowed in a two-overlapping-generations model with endogenous fertility. Parents raise children because, when retired, they expect gifts from their children who are essentially a capital good. Individuals' behavior between generations is examined by analyzing a Nash equilibrium, which is then compared with a social planner's optimal allocation. The pay-as-you-go public pension program is viewed as the optimal gifts from the optimal allocation when the latter is implemented. The effect on fertility of the introduction of a capital market is also analyzed. The validity of the old-age security hypothesis is shown to depend on the parameters of utility and cost functions."
"That the introduction of a means for transferring present to future consumption other than children in a developing country will reduce the rate of population growth is shown to depend crucially on the assumption that parents do not care about the numbers or the welfare of the children they have. When parents do care, the conclusion no longer unambiguously follows because the new means for providing for parents' old age leads to a positive income effect."
Dicussion explores the nature of the relationship between the distribution of income and the process of development on the basis of cross country data on income inequality. The results presented are based on a sample of 60 countries, including 40 developing countries, 14 developed countries, and 6 socialist countries. The approach adopted is essentially exploratory. Multivariate regression analysis was used to estimate cross country relationships between the income shares of different percentile groups and selected variables reflecting aspects of the development process which are likely to influence income inequality. The estimated equations are then used as a basis for broad generalizations about the relationship between income distribution and development. There was strong support for the proposition that relative inequaltiy increases substantially in the early stages of development, with a reversal of this tendency in the later stages. The propositions held whether the sample was restricted to developing countries or expanded to include developed and socialist countries. The process was most prolonged for the poorest group. There were a number of processes occurring "pari passu" with development which were correlated with income inequality and which can plausibly be interpreted as causal. These were intersectoral shifts in the structure of production, expansion in education attainment and skill level of the labor force; and reduction in the growth of population. The operation of these processes appeared to explain some of the improvement in income distribution observed in the later stages of development, but they did not serve to explain the marked deterioration observed in the earlier stages. The cross section results failed to support the stronger hypothesis that the deterioration in relative inequality reflected a prolonged absolute impoverishment of large sections of the population in the course of development. The cross country pattern showed average absolute incomes of the lower percentile groups rising as per capita gross national product rises, although slower than for upper income groups. The cross section results failed to support the view that a faster rate of growth is systematically associated with higher inequality than can be expected given the state of development realized. An appendix identifies data sources and problems.
"Recent research has shown that while labor emigration increases the nominal wage rate, the impact on the real wage rate remains quite ambiguous. The present paper reexamines the issue under the standard two-factor, two-commodity international trade model normally employed for this purpose. The principal finding of this paper is that once the problem is correctly formulated and analyzed, introducing utility-maximizing consumers, no such ambiguity exists. Indeed, labor emigration always leads to an increase in the welfare (real wage) of labor in the source country."
The authors examine the impact of international labor migration on wages in country of origin. Two types of emigration are distinguished: bundled emigration, which can result in a reduction of real wages; and pure labor emigration, which results in an increase in real wages.
"This study of migration in Mexico is based upon a modified Todaro approach and utilizes census data in a simultaneous equations model of 13 variables. It is unique in several ways: (a) it introduces proxy variables for employment probability and cost of migration that have not heretofore been found in the literature, but for which data are often available; (b) it illustrates that in some important cases census data have advantages not available through surveys; and (c) it finds that in some sense land reform in Mexico may have operated perversely. Finally, the study opens a new avenue for the study of informal sector growth."