"This paper presents estimates of the rate of population redistribution to the core areas of 44 developing countries over the period 1950-80. Particular attention is given to the period 1970-80, a time during which the core areas of developed countries experienced substantial declines in their rates of net inmigration. The principal finding is that the core areas of most developing countries are still experiencing high and, in a number of cases, increasing rates of net inmigration." The author contends that "this finding confirms the developmental model of spatial concentration and dispersal and should lay to rest other explanations of deconcentration, including arguments that focus on diseconomies of absolute size in the core area or on fluctuations in the aggregate economy." The difference between the population growth rates of entire nations and of core areas is used as a measure of interregional migration. Data for the 44 countries and information on the data sources are included in appendixes.
"Many developing nations have introduced policies designed to slow the rate of population growth of their largest cities. This article argues that there is a strong case for an explicit experimental or adaptive approach in policy design. Using the examples of Sao Paulo in Brazil and Seoul in South Korea, it is argued that coordinated trial and error methods with appropriate monitoring, evaluation, and policy revision can prove beneficial, especially given the high levels of uncertainty which surround both the objectives and the contexts of urbanization policies in most countries."
"The main finding of this article is that net internal migration to the core regions in the countries of the developed world, which subsided in the 1970s, increased in the 1980s, although not to the level of the 1960s. In some countries of northwest Europe there is a balance now in net flows between core and periphery. In the countries of the periphery of Europe and Japan net internal migration to the core regions increased slightly in the 1980s. Net migration flows to the periphery have completely reversed in Canada, and net flows out of the core regions of the United States have been significantly reduced. In eastern Europe, however, there is still moderate net migration to the core regions without any interruption as seen in western Europe, North America, and Japan. In South Korea and Taiwan rates of net migration to the core regions have been reduced from their high levels of the 1970s, but they are still quite high and show no clear sign of a break from the past."
"Using ten Asian megacities as examples, this article discusses a range of megacity characteristics and problems, including population growth, economic structure, spatial strategies, land policy, urban service provision, institutional development, and managerial problems. In spite of major progress in urban service delivery, ineffective land policies and inadequate cost-recovery systems remain serious obstacles. Megacities need and are promoting policentric spatial structures, but implementation lags in many cases. Institutional reforms are needed to cope with the metropolitan region character of megacity growth."
"This paper assesses some of the recent attempts to explain the perceived growth reversal between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States during the 1970s. The paper argues that the reversal in population trends was not a one-time, radical shift in settlement trends, but rather the result of more continuous underlying industrial trends. Indeed, since 1979, population growth has again become faster in metropolitan than nonmetropolitan areas." The paper includes three sections. Regional and area population and industrial earnings growth patterns are first summarized for the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. Theories of polarization and polar reversal are then evaluated and found to be inadequate. Finally, a reconstruction of the neoclassical model is proposed.
Natural decrease is no longer rare in the US. By 1989, 34% of all US counties had experienced at least one year of it. Natural decrease is most common in rural areas remote from metropolitan centers. Regional concentrations of natural decrease exist in the Great Plains, the Corn Belt, and East Texas with scattered pockets in the Ozark-Ouachita Uplands, upper Great Lakes, and Florida. Natural decrease is caused by age structure distortions stimulated by protracted, age specific migration. Although temporal variations in fertility also contribute to natural decrease, these variations are not due to below average fertility. Natural decrease is symptomatic of fundamental changes in the demographic structure of an area. -Author
"Analysis of the relationship between cancer rates and urbanization for United States counties for the period 1950-54 reveals the expected urban/rural differences for many digestive, urinary and respiratory organ cancers and for female breast cancer. Similar urban/rural differences existed in many other Western countries. By 1970-75, however, urban/rural differences in the United States had substantially narrowed." It is noted that "available data do not allow formal tests of the relationship between these changes and specific etiological factors, but the data suggest that the spatial convergence is related to the changing geography of such risk factors as smoking, alcohol consumption, manufacturing, and socioeconomic status and to the diminished size and role of the white foreign-born population, as well as to such confounding factors as medical practices and population migration."
"Individual labor market experiences [in Venezuela] are examined in terms of educational attainment, labor force participation, and wages received. Explanatory factors include personal attributes and two multivariate scales measuring place characteristics related to development. The results indicate that place characteristics associated with development have important effects on labor market experiences.... Among the key findings of this research are that educational attainment most affected labor force participation by women and wages of men."
"A new family of migration models belonging to the elimination by aspects family is examined, with the spatial interaction model shown to be a special case. The models have simple forms; they incorporate information flow processes and choice set constraints; they are free of problems raised by the Luce Choice Axiom; and are capable of generating intransitive flows. Preliminary calibrations using the Continuous Work History Sample [time] series data indicate that the model fits the migration data well, while providing estimates of interstate job message flows. The preliminary calculations also indicate that care is needed in assuming that destination [attraction] are independent of origins."
"The concept of the city size distribution is criticized for its lack of consideration of the effects of interurban interdependencies on the growth of cities. Theoretical justifications for the rank-size relationship have the same shortcomings, and an empirical study reveals that there is little correlation between deviations from rank-size distributions and national economic and social characteristics. Thus arguments suggesting a close correspondence between city size distributions and the level of development of a country, irrespective of intranational variations in city location and socioeconomic characteristics, seem to have little foundation." (summary in FRE, ITA, JPN, )
"A cohort-component method is used to construct historical annual age/sex disaggregations of total population. In econometric models of six substate areas [in the United States], regressions are estimated with and without the disaggregated data for five model variables expected to be dependent on the size of particular population subgroups. Statistical tests are performed to determine significant differences in residual variance of estimation with and without the disaggregated data. Although age/sex population projections may be a desired model output per se, the results indicate that the population subgroup data generally do not improve estimation of other model variables." (summary in FRE, ITA, JPN, )
"This paper reports on the specification, estimation and simulation of an interregional net migration model of the United States. The model makes use of time series data including, as explanatory variables, wage rates, unemployment rates, and population density. Simulation experiments are undertaken by joining the migration model with a multi-regional macroeconometric model to examine the effect [on] migration patterns of changes in national economic growth. In particular, the net outmigration trends in the Northeast are examined under alternative scenarios including faster national economic growth and a different energy pricing policy."
Birth expectations data frequently are used in population projections. A common assumption in preparing sub-national population projections is that the completed cohort fertility rates of the areas in question will converge over time to a level equivalent to the prevailing average number of lifetime births expected nationally by women in the principal reproductive ages. This paper examines whether such an assumption is justified for the United States. Although there is little supporting evidence for any convergence in state fertility rates for the period 1940 to 1977, birth expectations data for women 18 to 29 years old for 1977 and 1978 indicate a fairly uniform expected family size of two children per woman. The reliability of these expectations data are examined in light of the currently low period fertility rates.
"This article describes the emergent spatial dispersion pattern of the urban system of the Republic of Korea, where the government has instituted a strong decentralization policy. Intraregional decentralization is underway within the core area, while intraregional polarization towards larger regional centers is evident in periphery areas. Through the use of step-wise regression analysis, determinants of the differential growth rates of urban centers in the core and periphery are identified. The different spatial development processes operating in the core and periphery have implications for growth pole theory and regional development planning."
Recent trends in migration in the United States are reviewed, focusing on the links between regional and metropolitan population change. Three explanations for the counterurbanization phenomenon of the 1970s are presented and their implications for future migration trends considered. The author concludes that "while 1970s core region declines may have been strongly linked to the counterurbanization process, post-1980 core region gains do not appear to signal a return to the metropolis."
"Micro-level theories of why households change residence contrast with macro-level approaches that relate the level of spatial mobility to development. This article compares the rate of residential mobility in 16 [developed] countries or other areas and examines both regional variations within countries and changes in rates of local and nonlocal moving. Hypotheses that explain why countries differ in rates of residential mobility are examined."
"With a more thorough examination of population changes in the Tokyo region, this article confirms with regard to Japan the reconcentrating trend of urban population observed more clearly elsewhere by Cochrane and Vining (1988). Through an examination of the factors which led to the turnaround in the 1980s in Japan and elsewhere, it is argued that conservative economic policy, as manifested by deregulation and privatization, is the principal cause for reconcentration of urbanization in the 1980s in the economically advanced Western countries."
"Selected results of a multilevel dynamic simulation model of the economic and demographic development of the urban region of Dortmund [Federal Republic of Germany] are presented. In particular, the capability of the model to capture both urban growth and urban decline processes is illustrated. The mechanisms that control spatial growth, decline, or redistribution of activities in the model are first outlined, and a demonstration of how the model reproduces the general pattern of past spatial development follows. Finally, results of simulations covering a wide range of potential overall economic and demographic development in the region are discussed." (summary in FRE, ITA, JPN, )
"Data from the Malaysian Family Life Survey are used to examine the sensitivity of urban/rural income differentials to the definition and measurement of income. Measured income differentials vary with the extent to which nonmarket activities are included in the scope of income, how the distribution of income is summarized, and whether one adjusts for differences in hours of work, household size and composition, ethnic composition, and other sociodemographic characteristics. For example, depending on the measure chosen, estimates of the amount by which urban income exceeds rural income in Malaysia range from 9 percent to 141 percent."
Of the eighteen countries studied in this paper, eleven (Japan, Sweden, Norway, Italy, Denmark, New Zealand, Belgium, France, West Germany, East Germany, and The Netherlands) show either a reversal in the direction of net population flow from their sparsely populated, peripheral regions to their densely populated core regions or a drastic reduction in the level of this net flow. In the first seven of these eleven countries, this reversal or reduction became evident only in the 1970s; in the last four, its onset was recorded m the 1960s. Six countries (Hungary, Spain, Finland, Poland, South Korea, and Taiwan) have yet to show an attenuation in the movement of persons into their most densely populated regions. Some possibly unreliable British data likewise fail to reveal a slackening in the "drift south" of the British population. Three additional discoveries described in this paper are the following: (1) Migration continues strong into the capital regions of the three Eastern European countries studied here (Poland, Hungary, and East Germany). However, the low natural increase of these regions has blunted their expansion. (2) Though domestic migration into the capital regions of France, Sweden, and Norway has declined dramatically, foreign immigration into these regions remains at a high level. (3) Net domestic migration into the core regions of Sweden, Japan, and Italy, countries separated by vast distances, fluctuate from year to year in a remarkably similar manner.
"An econometric model for forecasting net migration and natural increase is proposed and then estimated using time-series data for Texas. The model is simulated five years out-of-sample and found to be quite accurate in forecasting future population growth. It outperforms simpler prediction methods, thus indicating that explicit modeling of net migration and natural increase is superior to modeling only total population."
"This article demonstrates that sectoral employment shifts associated with the migration pattern changes of the 1970s are very different than those for the period 1955-60 to 1965-70. Changing competitiveness for jobs in manufacturing and other traditional basic sectors of the economy cannot account for the greatly accelerated levels of core-periphery net outflow that have been the dominant characteristic of interstate movement during the 1970s and 1980s. Instead, an interconnected set of activities that includes government, services, trade, and construction is associated with the broadscale shifts in the geographic pattern of the United States' population. The causal linkage from migration to employment change assumed heightened importance during the 1970s."
This paper describes some results obtained from simulating a computable general equilibrium model calibrated with 1960 data for Japan. Of the two closures used, the Keynesian type, which assumes unutilized resources, performs better than the neoclassical closure, which assumes full employment of all factors of production. In other words, Japanese economic growth in the 1960s may be characterized by the decisions of investors who regarded the supply of quality labor as virtually unlimited. Spatial aspects of population shifts have a significant bearing on macro growth potentials if social capital demands are spatially differentiated.
"An integrated model is proposed to capture economic and demographic interactions in a system of regions. This model links the interregional economic model of Isard (1960) and the interregional demographic model of Rogers (1975) via functions describing consumption and migration patterns. Migration rates are determined jointly with labor force participation rates and unemployment rates."
A numerical general equilibrium model has been designed to describe Swedish demoeconomic development during its first phase of industrialization, the pre-World War I period. Three dynamic simulations analyze the role of rural-to-urban migration and emigration in Swedish industrialization and some results are presented concerning their importance for the development of the Swedish economy.
"This article uses event history data to specify a model of employment returns to initial migration, onward migration, and return migration among newly married persons in the U.S. Husbands are more likely to be full-time employed than wives, and being a parent reduces the employment odds among married women. Employment returns to repeated migration differ by gender, with more husbands full-time employed after onward migration and more wives full-time employed after return migration events. We interpret these empirical findings in the context of family migration theory, segmented labor market theory, and gender-based responsibilities." Data are from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth from 1979 to 1991.
"This article focuses on forecasting migration between Australia and New Zealand (trans-Tasman migration), which is largely visa-free and therefore resembles internal migration. Net trans-Tasman migration is a major component of New Zealand population change and is embedded in this article in a Bayesian or unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) model, which includes foreign and domestic economic variables. When time series of net migration are available, this approach provides a useful input into forecasting population growth in the short run in the absence of major policy changes. This conclusion applies equally to interregional migration and to unrestricted international migration between economically integrated nations."
"A truism in demography has been that net migration may be derived from information on gross place-to-place flows, but that gross place-to-place flows cannot be inferred back from information on the net population movements in a system. Some recent work on maximum entropy and minimum information models, however, suggests a possible means for estimating just such as set of place-to-place flows. The net migration constrained model presented here could prove particularly useful for updating detailed migration matrices on the basis of current net migration estimates, and could even provide some clues as to the nature of the still poorly understood relationship between gross and net migration. Performance of the model is demonstrated using flow matrices from the 1960 and 1970 U.S. Censuses.
"A multiregional model of gross internal migration flows is presented in this article. The interdependence of economic factors across all regions is recognized by imposing a non-stochastic adding-up constraint that requires total inmigration to equal total outmigration in each time period. An iterated system estimation technique is used to obtain asymptotically consistent and efficient parameter estimates. The model is estimated for gross migration flows among the Canadian provinces over the period 1962-86 and then is used to examine the likelihood of a wash-out effect in net migration models. The results indicate that previous approaches that use net migration equations may not always be empirically justified."
"This paper presents a new method that can be used to reveal the policy objectives with which actual public investment decisions are consistent. Japanese regional investment expenditures from 1958 to 1978 are analyzed, and the dominant policies in effect during this period are identified using this method. A connection between Japanese regional public investment policies and the convergence of population growth across regions is suggested." The suitability of redistributive investment policies as a mechanism for the spatial stabilization of other populations experiencing rapid economic growth is noted.
"This article presents a critical survey of research on extended input-output models, emphasizing recent developments in demographic-economic and socio-economic analysis. Basic principles of model design and construction are reviewed, by reference to a representative selection of extended models. Two research themes--labor market analysis and income distribution--are pursued in greater detail as examples of the directions of current work. A comparison is made between extended models and social accounting matrices."
"This article develops a two-region version of an extended input-output model that disaggregates consumption among employed, unemployed, and inmigrant households, and which explicitly models the influx into a region of migrants to take up a proportion of any jobs created in the regional economy. The model is empirically tested using real data for the Scotland (UK) regions of Strathclyde and Rest-of-Scotland. Sets of interregional economic, demographic, demo-economic, and econo-demographic multipliers are developed and discussed, and the effects of a range of economic and demographic impacts are modeled. The circumstances under which Hawkins-Simon conditions for non-negativity are breached are identified, and the limits of the model discussed."
"This paper seeks an appropriate specification of the migration exchange between rural and urban areas so that the implied evolution of the degree of urbanization agrees with its commonly observed S-shape. After demonstrating that the gross migration flows between rural and urban areas should be specified as nonlinear functions of the population in the origin sector, the paper introduces a model in which such flows are represented by gravity-type functional forms....[The model] can be used to give insights into the time paths of three basic urbanization variables: the urban-rural growth rate differential, the rural net outmigration rate, and the urban net immigration rate. All take on a zero value at the two extremes of the urbanization process and evolve in between according to a bell-shaped curve. These findings are illustrated by applying the model to data from the United States for the period 1790-1980."
"This study examines the relationships between pre- and post-move unemployment and interstate migration of the United States labor force for the period 1965 to 1970. Multivariate analyses are conducted for several large occupation groups. The results indicate a strong link between unemployment and migration. Unemployment increases migration possibilities for each large occupation group considered. Substantial post-move unemployment exists, but there is a significant link between migration and such unemployment only for blue-collar workers who are repeat migrants."
"As a country evolves from a traditional to an advanced society, the part of urban growth that is due to net inmigration follows a simple pattern, which can be described by an inverted U-shaped curve: it first increases, then passes through a maximum, and decreases thereafter. This hypothesis is confirmed by quantitative analysis using time-series and cross-section data. The analysis suggests that in the second half of this century natural increase often provides a slightly higher contribution to urban population growth than net inmigration." (summary in FRE, ITA, JPN, )
"This paper shows that the frequency of migration can be best modeled by a zero-inflated Poisson process, because it takes into account the overwhelming presence of zeros (nonmigrants) in the data. A failure to do so can cause the coefficients to be biased and also result in poor prediction. The major finding is that by using a zero-inflated process, the performance of the model in predicting migration behavior is substantially improved. In addition, frequent movers tend to be white, nonunionized, and tend to have fewer children, less stable marriages, and more frequent occupational changes." Data are for the United States for the years 1977 to 1987 and are taken from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics.
"This paper explores the twin concepts of labor demand and labor mobility during the Soviet and post-Soviet periods. The study uses a detailed data set on labor stock, industrial labor demand, and labor flows for the 1980s in the Yaroslavl' Oblast, and data on migration and regional labor markets for all Russian regions in the 1990s. Contextual features, such as the social contract, full employment, methods of labor allocation, and a generally low rate of geographic mobility, distinguish the centrally planned quasi-labor market from the labor market in capitalist democracies. The findings suggest that net in-migration induces employment change in the current period rather than in a future period. The job creation effects appear concurrent with migration during the Soviet period. In the post-Soviet period, migration and employment relationships are not predictable based on the same relationships during the Soviet period."
"Nepal has been experiencing a permanent rural-to-rural migration of households from the central hill zone to the Terai region. Migrant households, due to the structure of the Terai economy, are impelled to acquire control of land for subsistence agriculture by squatting, purchasing, or receiving a grant. A household's ability to maximize subsistence opportunities is partly a function of the means by which land is acquired and whether land is acquired at all. Factors which determine the chances of acquiring land reflect the role of institutional rigidities such as the distribution of wealth and the caste structure, state-imposed land reform policies, and such household characteristics as family size and risk aversion. A multinomial logit model is used to empirically assess the importance of these elements in the outcomes of migrant households' resource acquisition decisions."
"This article examines polarization reversal in terms of changing human resource profiles related to migration and to national policies affecting the spatial pattern of economic growth. It first demonstrates the relationship between these elements through a review that integrates three distinct themes in earlier research. Attention then turns to an empirical study of human resource variation among eight urban districts and the rest of Venezuela treated as a single unit. This comparison utilizes age, gender, educational attainment, and occupational status variables provided by individual records of Venezuela's 1971 Population Census. A concluding section relates empirical findings to policy alternatives."
"Cochrane and Vining's study of recent trends in core-periphery migration, while suffering from some weaknesses in methodology and interpretation, confirms very clearly that the reversal of the metropolitan migration turnaround is a widespread phenomenon in the developed non-Communist world. Evidence from the United Kingdom also supports this observation. An examination of the possible factors responsible for the rise and fall of counterurbanization over the past two decades suggests that two major forces--population deconcentration and regional restructuring--are operating simultaneously but relatively independently and that they both fluctuate in their nature and strength over time in response to prevailing demographic and economic circumstances."
"Although the pattern of polarization reversal reported by Vining and Pallone in the 1970s and the re-emergence of core-ward net migration that they now report for the 1980s are problematic if viewed from the perspective of a short-term time horizon, they are easily understandable in a long-wave context. Evidence is provided for 55-year waves of urbanward migration [in the United States], each of which reached its nadir during the nation's major stagflation crises. The periodic repetitions of the phenomena described by Vining and Pallone suggest the relevance of the interpretations provided by long-wave theory."
"This paper examines the population development of large urban regions. Several hypotheses about patterns of settlement change in highly urbanized countries are discussed using empirical material derived from IIASA's Comparative Migration and Settlement Study. These hypotheses refer to interrelations between population growth and urban size, the role of migration and natural increase as components of urban population change, overall spatial mobility, hierarchical migration, and the age distribution of migrants moving between, out of, and into large urban areas." The emphasis is on developed countries. (summary in FRE, ITA, JPN, )
Human capital is one factor that significantly influences local economic growth. Our goal in this research is to analyze trends in local human capital dynamics during the past thirty years. The authors find little evidence of convergence in college attainment across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas and evidence of divergence across Census regions. The authors also find within-distribution divergence for all labor markets, as well as for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, which is accompanied by lower levels of intra-distributional mobility than we observe for the income distribution. To the extent that human capital accumulation drives growth, these trends are likely to contribute to increasingly different levels of income growth across labor markets in the future. Finally, looking at factors that influence upward mobility within the distribution, the authors find that an increase in the number of four-year colleges and universities per capita increased a labor market's upward rank and quintile mobility in human capital.
The authors show that spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity matter in the estimation of the ß-convergence process among 138 European regions over the 1980 to 1995 period. Using spatial econometrics tools, the authors detect both spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity in the form of structural instability across spatial convergence clubs. The estimation of the appropriate spatial regimes spatial error model shows that the convergence process is different across regimes. The authors also estimate a strongly significant spatial spillover effect: the average growth rate of per capita GDP of a given region is positively affected by the average growth rate of neighboring regions.
Depressed regions typically lose a large number of migrants but simultaneously are destination regions for some migrants. This study analyzes those people who decided to move to depressed regions in Finland in 1993-1996. The analysis is based on a 1 percent sample drawn from the Finnish longitudinal census. The results show that migration into depressed regions is also a selective process. Return migration is only one part of this migration. However, the more educated an individual is, the more likely she or he is to move to a flourishing region. The process of concentration of human capital is reinforced by interregional migration.
Recent literature on border effect has demonstrated that national trade (intra- as well as interregional trade) tends to be more intense than international trade. Unfortunately, owing to the dearth of information on interregional economic relations, this important aspect of the economy has remained relatively ignored. In this article, the authors have described the methodology and main results of the largest estimation of Spanish interregional trade (1995-2005) carried out as a part of the C-lntereg project. The results obtained highlight the importance of the internal trade and the validity of the gravity model. Although the estimation focuses on the Spanish economy, the methodology can easily be applied to other European Union (EU) countries. In the upcoming years, this innovative database will be further developed in all its dimensions (space, time, and sectors) to serve as a promising framework for the application of different techniques such as spatial interaction models or interregional input-output approaches.
Accessibility plays a fundamental role in the transport network. In fact, accessibility may be used for investigating the (un)even distribution of economic activities, or the (dis)equilibrium in the development of different regional performances. In particular, accessibility analysis can be considered as a first exploratory step in the understanding of people's needs and behaviour, especially in the framework of transport network structures. From the methodological viewpoint, accessibility has a long tradition, starting in the 1950's with the pioneering work by Hansen, who defined accessibility as the potential of opportunity for interaction. Such a definition can also be considered as an integrated framework of all subsequent definitions. The aim of this paper is to explore accessibility in the German commuting network, by focusing attention on the relevance of the impedance form associated with it. The conventional (potential) accessibility function - in the light of the related economic activities - is used as a suitable instrument to identify the major German hub/ attraction nodes. In this formulation, different types of decay functions are used as impedance forms. In our applications we consider home-to-work commuters travelling between 439 German districts, for both 2003 and 2007. We carry out a comparative analysis of the accessibility values in these years, by outlining the different emerging hierarchies, resulting from the use of different impedance forms. In addition, we explore which type of accessibility indicator best matches the connectivity network. The final aim is to identify - by means of different accessibility functions -homogeneous vs. heterogeneous characteristics of the German commuting network.
This article reports the authors' efforts to construct a baseline input-output (IO) model with environmental accounts for use in modeling geographically specific e-waste recycling systems. The authors address conceptual and practical issues that arise when recyclable end-of-life (EOL) commodities and related activities are incorporated into the traditional IO model including: (1) shortcomings of existing industry and commodity accounts that do not explicitly represent recycling activities and recyclable EOL products; (2) accounting challenges related to flows of EOL products observed mainly in physical volumes; and (3) valuing EOL products whose transactions prices vary widely. These three issues complicate the incorporation of EOL commodities within the conventional IO framework. The authors present a way to record the transactions of EOL products in both physical and monetary terms in an IO model with environmental accounts. Specifically, the authors present the case of e-waste recycling for the Atlanta metropolitan area (AMA) with an empirically based hypothetical scenario.