International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis

Published by Emerald
Online ISSN: 1753-8270
Publications
Expansion of targeted sectors for eligibility of housing subsidy
Article
Affordable homeownership is a policy that is often accorded a great deal of policy attention by governments of many countries. In this paper, we examine the market implications of setting a housing price to income ratio target for a market segment by the government. The policy requires active intervention by the government with regard to the targeted sector. We use a simple model of the housing market with a homeownership affordability target to derive the market implications of such targets. In the presence of uncertainty and resource constraints, the objective of homeownership affordability is achieved for the targeted group at the expense of greater volatility in residential construction activity. When the size of the targeted sector is significant in size, there are spillover price and crowding out effects on the non-targeted housing market segment. This results in political pressure on the government to expand homeownership affordability targets to increasing segments of the population. Housing price to income ratios tend to be fairly constant over time and across targeted groups, the housing supply is relatively price inelastic and the income elasticity of housing demand is less than one. The Singapore government intervenes extensively in the housing sector to ensure homeownership affordability, with a resulting homeownership rate of 91 percent for the resident population. The above hypotheses regarding the implications of setting housing price to income ratio targets are tested using the Singapore housing market. The experience and data for Singapore were found to support the above hypotheses.
 
Article
b>Purpose – Homeownership is considered both economically and socially beneficial for homeowners. However, in the collective living arrangement, reaching a consensus with regard to the residential environment is difficult. The purpose of this paper is to identify factors that can reduce the conflict among the stakeholders in multi-owner low-cost housing in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach – This study tested three hypotheses examining whether the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of owner-occupants and occupancy rates affect owner-occupants' satisfaction with stakeholders' relationships. Data were collected through questionnaires from owner-occupants of multi-owner low-cost settlements in Selangor state. Data on housing characteristics were collected from chairpersons of the respective owners' organisations. The data were treated as parametric, and analysis of variance was conducted. Findings – Four factors – number of children in the family, duration of residency, participation in social activities and participation in meetings – were found to affect owners-occupants' satisfaction with the stakeholders' relationships. The significant effect of occupancy rates was also indicated. Practical implications – The Management Corporations (MCs) should encourage social relationships among residents. To avoid conflict, the costs and benefits of participation must be balanced. Policy makers should take two key aspects seriously: owner-managed strategy practices by the MCs and high rates of tenant-residents. A mechanism should be identified for assisting the MCs in housing management and for protecting the benefits of homeownership for owner-occupants. Originality/value – Past studies on low-income household settlements examined public housing or low-income homeowners of single detached dwellings. This study adds to the existing body of knowledge by examining low-income homeowners in multi-owner low-cost settlements.
 
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to use local-level time series data to examine the determinants of housing starts and the price elasticity of supply for the Aberdeen local housing market. Design/methodology/approach – Seven time series models are used in the analysis. The basic model treats housing starts as a function of the changes of current and lagged house prices, interest rate and construction cost. The other six models which are extensions of the basic model include other variables like time on the market, planning constraints and future expectations. Findings – It is found that the local variables – changes in house prices, time on the market, planning regulation, lagged stock and lagged and future housing starts – are the main factors that influence new residential construction in Aberdeen. None of the national variables is significant, confirming the importance of limiting housing market analysis to the local level. The price elasticity of supply estimated is in the range of 2.0 to 3.2 for housing starts and 0.01 to 0.02 for housing stock. These estimates are higher than most of the elasticities for the other UK local markets. Originality/value – There is the need to better understand the supply of housing at the various local housing markets. Unfortunately, however, most housing supply studies use national data. Because national data are aggregation of local data, using national studies results for local markets may be uninformative. Also, the few existing local studies use typically cross-section data or at least time series over relatively short time spans. This paper makes an effort to use quarterly time series data over a 25-year period for a local market and also include a planning variable which is different from local markets and often ignored in national or regional studies.
 
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the formation of a cross-sector partnership in which a collaborative response addressed the issue of affordable housing and homelessness in Melbourne, Australia. Factors leading to the formation and evolution of the relationship reveal how social partnerships in the housing/construction industry can be formulated. Design/methodology/approach – Semi-structured interviews were held with representatives of the three sectors involved in an innovative social housing model, the Elizabeth Street Common Ground project. Supported with background documentation, interviews were coded and the results contrasted against theories pertaining to cross-sector collaboration. Findings – Several factors contributed to the formation of this partnership, most notably the strong social imperative found within the organisational ethos of the participating organisations. The opportunity to replicate a well-trialled and successful model coincided with the desire among all partners to be part of the solution. Originality/value – The results provide an insight into the ingredients pivotal to the formation of a successful multi-sector partnership. It highlights the value in sharing the best practice and the importance of networks when tackling major global problems such as affordable housing and homelessness.
 
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of this legislative reform in the state of South Australia (SA) through an examination of the relationship between listed or advertised price and transaction prices before and after the changes in regulation. Between 2000 and 2008, legislative changes took place throughout Australia to make real-estate transactions more transparent and to deal with misleading conduct by real-estate agents. The practice of “charm” or “bait” pricing was targeted. This denotes the under-quoting of estimated selling prices in real-estate sale advertisements which can be considered deceptive or even fraudulent. Design/methodology/approach – The study area is Adelaide, the state capital of SA and includes analysis of first and last advertised prices and eventual selling price for > 120,000 residential sales transactions over a nine-year period between 2003 and 2011. The analysis to test these hypotheses included, first, a descriptive evaluation of the percentage price difference over time and a spatial breakdown of mean percentage price difference before and after legislation. Second, for each hypothesis, the change was tested by measuring the variance of the percentage change, with significance established through the Levene and Brown–Forsythe tests, rather than by the mean percentage change. Findings – The results, both descriptive and statistical, support the effectiveness of the reform in legislation. Research limitations/implications – The study has application in terms of agents as social gatekeepers and confirms the role of regulation to ensure market values are achieved and consumers not disadvantaged. With friction in the market, imperfect information and the possible behavioural responses of land agents, there may be incomplete market correction of underpricing strategies. This paper confirms the effectiveness of one such market intervention. Social implications – Some half a million dwellings are purchased in Australia every year. Annually, in the state of SA, some 53,000 dwellings are financed to be purchased or built. These levels of purchase reflect national home ownership rates of about 69 per cent, with some 33 per cent of Australians owning their houses outright and a growing number, some 36 per cent, owners with a mortgage. Australian households also move house relatively frequently. In 2008, 43 per cent of Australians reported moving in the previous 5 years, 15 per cent had moved 3 or more times. The most common reasons for moving were twofold, either to buy a house or to buy a bigger house. These levels of purchase, home ownership and mobility underpin the importance and viability of some 10,000 real-estate services businesses in Australia; a sector which, up to 2,000, was largely self-regulated. Originality/value – This paper is one of the first in Australia to effectively quantify the success of legislative reform on residential agency behaviour.
 
Article
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the risk management process conducted by some private and not-for-profit affordable housing providers in South East Queensland, and draw conclusions about the relationship between risk assessments/responses and past experiences.----- Design/methodology/approach: In-depth interviews of selected non-government housing providers have been conducted to facilitate an understanding of their approach to risk assessment in developing and in managing affordable housing projects. Qualitative data are analysed using thematic analysis to find emerging themes suggested by interview participants.----- Findings: The paper finds that informal risk management process is used as part of normal business process in accordance with industry standards. Many interviewees agree that the recognition of financial risk and the fear of community rejection of such housing projects have restrained them from committing to such investment projects. The levels of acceptance of risk are not always consistent across housing providers which create opportunities to conduct multi-stakeholder partnership to reduce overall risk.----- Research limitations/implications: The paper has implications for developers or investors who seek to include affordable housing as part of their portfolio. However, data collected in the study are a cross-section of interviews that will not include the impact on recent tax incentives offers by the Australian Commonwealth Government.----- Practical implications: The study suggests that implementing improvements to the risk mitigation and management framework may assist in promoting the supply of affordable housing by non-government providers.----- Originality/value: The focus of the study is the interaction between partnerships and risk management in development and management of affordable rental housing.
 
Article
Purpose – The aim of this paper is to find ongoing socioeconomic needs and how they affect the built environment and how they should be financed. Design/methodology/approach – A field survey was undertaken in 2011 in the eastern province of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) to find the citizens’ views about the initial and ongoing financial support of banks and the real estate development fund. Findings – The survey’s results showed that the majority of the respondents did not manage to take up mortgage and own a property. There is also serious lack of financial support for the population’s socioeconomic needs. Research limitations/implications – The research is carried out in the KSA. The findings, however, can be generalized to other Gulf and Islamic countries as well. Practical implications – The research would enable the policymakers and financing bodies to consider future socioeconomic needs of low-income citizens and set proper financial resources to meet these needs. Originality/value – Few research studies have been carried out in the KSA in regard to the relation between the built environment and ongoing socioeconomic needs.
 
Comparison of means: Non-mortgagees and owner-occupied and investor mortgagees
Parameter estimates and statistics: Mortgage understanding
Article
Purpose : Establish the profile of mortgage-holding households in terms of their demographic, socioeconomic, and financial characteristics and assay the current state of knowledge concerning mortgage products in Australia. Design/methodology/approach – Logit models predict owner-occupied, investor mortgages, and mortgage understanding. Factors include financial literacy, gender, age, ethnicity, occupation, education, family structure, household income, savings, and debt. Understanding is knowledge of mortgage rates, fees and charges and familiarity with mortgage terms. Findings – Middle-aged and couples with children have an increased likelihood of an owner-occupied mortgage, while being from a non-English speaking background, a small business owner, or a skilled tradesman increases the likelihood of an investor mortgage. Understanding is generally poorer for females, rural/regional households and the young, and better for professionals, the university educated, and small business owners and skilled tradesmen.Research limitations/implications : The cross-section of households is from a period when mortgage rates were stable and housing prices strong. Practical implications – No more than 40 percent of mortgage-holding households have an understanding of any key mortgage terms, only 35 percent understand the main disadvantage of fixed over variable rates during falls in interest rates, and just 15 percent understand the fees and charges on their own mortgage. There is a need for financial literacy programs to continue and expand.Originality/value : This is the first Australian study to model the demand and understanding of mortgage products using household level data. Yes Yes
 
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review sustainable planning literature and investigate a major development in an Australian regional city, looking for broad sustainable insights to improve urban growth management. Design/methodology/approach – First, the authors sketched the backdrop to Ipswich and looked for the drivers propelling its rapid growth. They then generated a sustainability framework from the urban regeneration literature. In the empirical phase, they analysed a major development – the Icon project. They evaluated three of five regeneration domains using secondary sources, site observations and interviews with stakeholders and experts. Findings – First, each city’s situation is unique, so the authors proffer no simplistic development formula. Internally, cities, including Ipswich, are spatially fragmented. Second, urban regeneration extends temporally and spatially beyond the project site boundaries or deadlines. Diminished property-driven regeneration neglects the social dimensions to sustainable housing or relegates it to an afterthought, but community participation is insufficient. Government needs to seed or drive (directly or via incentives) substantive social transformation. Projects supported with credible community social development are less risky, but, in competing for investment funds, local government can rush approve unsuitable projects. Research limitations/implications – The analysis focused on the planning and urban design aspects of the project. Only limited demographic, economic and social analyses were conducted, and the study would also benefit from interviews with a broader sample of experts. Practical implications – Sustainable urban regeneration needs to consider not only the unique mix of regional growth drivers and constraints, but also specific local precinct characteristics. Intelligently configured community consultation should inform but not dilute design leadership. Originality/value – This work investigates appropriate urban responses to growth pressure for sustainable outcomes in fast-growing regional cities.
 
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to consider the impact of urban design master plan projects in the Australian context of Brisbane. It first reviewed the general ramifications of urban design projects on property markets. The local impacts of two major projects were then analysed and compared. A limited statistical analysis was conducted to investigate whether local price growth could be attributed to the projects or resulted from generally buoyant market conditions. Design/methodology/approach – The paper adopted a largely descriptive approach. It first reviewed the theoretical outcomes urban design projects should deliver. It then looked at the specific details of two distinct urban design projects in Brisbane and descriptively assessed their impact on adjacent local housing markets. It then compared relative aggregated location price growth to isolate discernable project price effects. Finally, the paper anecdotally selected some master designed properties and considered whether their prices were excessive compared to average location rents. Findings – The paper found conflicting evidence to support the view that urban design projects significantly lifted aggregated location prices. On the one hand, aggregated project location price growth was relatively muted. Other generic demand factors and local differences in housing stock quality swamped project effects. On the other hand, at the individual property level, there was some anecdotal evidence to suggest premiums were paid for urban designed homes. The paper indirectly suggests, then, that any price impacts of urban design projects are subject to rapid distance decay. Research limitations/implications – The paper conducted only a limited historical review of revitalisation and urban design. A systematic individual, project-adjacent, property price analysis was not conducted. Rather, the aggregated dwelling price analysis and anecdotal rental review suggested, albeit inconclusively, that the effects of urban design are spatially restricted to the immediate vicinity of projects. Practical implications – Investors should note likely price impact of planned infrastructure projects is spatially restricted to the immediate environs of the project. Originality/value – The paper combines an overview of urban design and property market analysis.
 
Article
Purpose – This paper aims to study house builder opinions of energy-efficient homes in the UK. The days of inconsiderate construction methods and disregard for the environment are becoming a thing of the past. If zero carbon (Zc) standards are to be implemented across all new homes within the UK, it is essential that house builders are willing and able to construct such homes to the necessary standards and to the volumes required. Although new generations of low carbon (Lc) and energy-efficient homes are beginning to break into the marketplace, house builders remain reluctant to introduce complex technologies during high effort builds. Design/methodology/approach – The findings from questionnaire responses provide an indication of the views of house builders relating to the incentives encouraging and barriers preventing them from producing mass market energy-efficient homes. Findings – This paper has uncovered the views and opinions of house builders relating to energy-efficient homes. The findings provide evidence that the house building industry is not fully engaged with the energy-efficiency concept; that house builders portray an inconsistent level of confidence in their ability to deliver energy-efficient homes; and that Government targets are too ambitious. Originality/value – The findings within this paper provide an overview of the opinions of house builders relating to energy-efficient homes using statistical analysis.
 
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to contextualise and assess “controlled” evidence about emerging plural provision of social housing within an English region. Design/methodology/approach – Two matching pairs of case study social housing provider type (stock transfer associations and arm's-length management organisations), all established between four and seven years previously and all located within the same region, are compared and contrasted through rich qualitative interviews with stakeholders, backed by secondary and other documentary evidence. Findings – The new models have led to considerable change for both staff and tenants across many dimensions, mainly positive, in service delivery terms. It is also apparent that regulation and inspection have a dominant impact on social providers. It can be inferred from the evidence that a key challenge for the future is the lack of a clear, long-term vision for social housing at the national policy level. Originality/value – The paper is a rare empirical examination of wide-ranging change to social housing in the UK. It is also unusual in its attempt to construct a quasi-experimental series of case studies.
 
Article
This paper applies a two-workplace residential location choice model to study the housing price gradient changes between Macau and Hong Kong. The classical land market model assumes a one-workplace scenario. However, with the globalization trend, travel between two workplaces is becoming more and more common. This paper found that housing price gradient from Macau to Hong Kong is flattened when more non-resident workers traveled from Hong Kong to Macau, ceteris paribus. The results have important implications on polycentric city models, and provide a novel method to study neighboring city effects on housing price.
 
Article
Purpose - To reviews sustainable planning literature and investigate a major development in an Australian regional city, looking for broad sustainable insights to improve urban growth management. Design/methodology/approach - First we sketch the backdrop to Ipswich and look for the drivers propelling its rapid growth. We then generate a sustainability framework from the urban regeneration literature. In the empirical phase, we analyse a major development - the Icon project. We evaluate three of five regeneration domains using secondary sources, site observations, interviews with stakeholders and experts. Findings - First, each city’s situation is unique so we proffer no simplistic development formula. Internally, cities, including Ipswich, are spatially fragmented. Second, urban regeneration extends temporally and spatially beyond the project site boundaries or deadlines. Diminished property-driven regeneration neglects the social dimensions to sustainable housing or relegates it to an afterthought but community participation is insufficient. Government needs to seed or drive (directly or via incentives) substantive social transformation. Projects supported with credible community social development are less risky but, in competing for investment funds, local government can rush approve unsuitable projects. Research limitations/implications - The analysis focused on the planning and urban design aspects to the project. Only limited demographic, economic and social analysis was conducted and the study would also benefit from interviews with a broader sample of experts. Practical implications - Sustainable urban regeneration needs to consider the unique mix of regional growth drivers and constraints but also specific local precinct characteristics. Intelligently-configured community consultation should inform but not dilute design leadership to mediocrity. Originality/value - Investigates appropriate urban responses to growth pressure for sustainable outcomes in fast-growing regional cities.
 
Map locating the Cloughjordan Ecovillage 
Article
Purpose – This pilot study aims to explore the case of Cloughjordan Ecovillage from the perspective of the consensus-based decision-making approach adopted by this like-minded intentional community. Ecovillages have grown in number around the world since the early 1990s. This growth is largely due to the contested nature of postmodernity and the desire to establish a simpler, meaningful and sustainable lifestyle centered on participatory democracy within the local community. The primary research question guiding this study was – Does consensus work in an intentional community such as an ecovillage? Design/methodology/approach – Data collection included semistructured interviews with current and former ecovillage members, questionnaires (reported elsewhere), literature review, content analysis of relevant documents and media and participant observation. Findings – The preliminary findings suggest that despite the impressive nature of the built infrastructure at this site, the community continues to struggle with governance, decision-making, consensus and communication issues. Originality/value – Considerable interpersonal conflict, leading to the departure of half of the community membership in 2007, acted as a catalyst in calling in outside experts to resolve disputes and to implement a more effective and sustainable framework within which to organize and govern the community. The “Viable Systems Model” was adopted in the same year and thus far appears to have provided a more viable and equitable leadership model that has generally been well received by the current membership.
 
Article
Purpose – The purpose of paper is to investigate the dissatisfaction and what specifically prompts multi-owned housing owners to change their body corporate management provider. Globally there has been a substantial growth reported in the number of residents living in multi-owned housing in recent years. There is increasing evidence that residents in these developments are experiencing dissatisfaction and frustration especially with the service received from their body corporate management company. Design/methodology/approach – The paper includes a review of both the body corporate literature and customer switching literature which serves to inform the research. The investigation takes the form of a qualitative study comprising eight in-depth one-to-one interviews with residential body corporate owners who have recently switched to an alternative body corporate management provider. Findings – The dissatisfaction experienced by body corporate owners leading them to change management companies bears a close similarity to the retail banking industry. The interviews record highly emotive responses from interviewees and the desire for an improved quality of service and better value for money from their service provider. These findings allow a deeper understanding of the outcome of studies that have been carried out previously in England and New Zealand. Practical implications – The findings will assist directors of body corporate companies, property management and real-estate companies to understand the needs and wants of their clients and may also benefit property developers in their selection of a body corporate management company and legislators in providing a suitable legal framework. Originality/value – This paper provides in-depth insights into switching behaviour within the context of body corporate management companies which has not before been published within academic journals.
 
Article
May 1, 2010 An economic indicator faces two requirements. It should be timely reported and should not significantly be altered afterward to avoid erroneous messages. At the same time they should reflect changing market conditions constantly and appropriately. These requirements are particularly challenging for housing price indices, since housing markets are subject to large temporal/seasonal changes and occasional structural changes. In this study we estimate a hedonic price index of previously-owned condominiums of Tokyo 23 Wards from 1986 through 2006, taking account of seasonal sample selection biases and structural changes in a way it enables us to report the indexes timely which are not subject to change after reporting. Specifically, we propose an overlapping-period hedonic model (OPHM), in which a hedonic price index is calculated every month based on data in the “window” of a year ending this month (this month and previous eleven months). We also estimate hedonic housing price indexes under alternative assumptions: (i) no structural change (“structurally restricted”) and (ii) different structure for every month (“structurally unrestricted”). Results suggest that the structure of the housing market, including seasonality, changes over time, and these changes occur continuously over time. It is also demonstrated that structurally restricted indices that do not account for structural changes involve a large time lag compared with indices that do account for structural changes during periods with significant price fluctuations.
 
Article
We use data on new apartment offerings in the municipality of Sao Paulo, Brazil to illustrate our main claim that the hedonic direct method using time dummies as well as the simple average method include cyclical behavior of observables and non observables in a house price index that may overestimate or underestimate the actual change in house prices, well beyond the composition effects. We propose the use of alternative characteristics hedonic functions to compute alternative Laspeyres house price indexes that differentiate the sources of observable shocks in the index. Our decomposition allows for the inclusion of level and cyclical behavior of sets of aggregate variables into the index.
 
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to highlight the importance of home equity and the interplay between market segments for housing market developments. The intention is to show that it is not only the aggregate equity gain but also the distribution of equity gains between segments that matter for how shocks to income impact house prices. Design/methodology/approach – The paper sets out a linear housing market model with three segments. Households trade up a housing ladder and link the three segments for owner-occupied housing. The up-trading is equity-induced. An expression for the house price index, which is related to the market segment prices both directly through the segment size and indirectly through a segment position on the housing ladder is derived. The author considers the price effects of shocks to income in four housing market regimes. Findings – The heterogeneous housing market model shows how the interplay between segments impacts housing markets. When considering shocks to income, short-run deviations in the price-to-income (PTI) ratio compared to their long-run equilibrium due to equity-induced up-trading were found. The extent of PTI overshooting is related to the intensity of equity-induced up-trading between different segments. The market structure necessary to eliminate such overshooting is contingent on the distribution of equity gains between segments. Finally, the paper shows how the price effects of macroprudential interventions might be non-negligible when indirect effects are taken into account. Originality/value – The linear housing market model with three market segments introduces a framework where the intensity of equity-induced up-trading in different market segments can be analyzed. This distributional aspect is, to the best of the author's knowledge, novel. The context-specific relation between housing market structure, equity-induced up-trading and short-run deviations in the PTI ratio provides a foundation for future research.
 
Article
Purpose – This paper aims to show the practical conditions of the unification of real estate register system in Korea. Design/methodology/approach – Literature research. Findings – Although some information improvements and benefits in transaction can be expected through the elimination of discordances between dualized registry/registration books, the unification process should consider some legal and institutional factors which have been stabilized in the Korean society. Research limitations/implications – The socioeconomic effect of unification of real estate register system, such as cost-benefit consideration, is not included in this study. As for methodology, the conceptional framework is not based on an established theory, but on the simple thumb rule. Practical implications – The unification of registry and registration system of real estate in Korea could be implemented in a way of mild delegation of tasks, without a radical restructuring of the system. The practical guideline could be found in the system of family registry. Originality/value – The possibility of implementation of unification of the real estate register system is analyzed in aspects of social institutions and legal considerations.
 
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review the housing sector of Turkey and present the housing development strategies developed by government enterprises for the urban poor in Turkey as successful examples. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology of the paper is descriptive. First of all, the literature on housing finance systems and sources of housing finance are stated. Then, the paper reviews housing finance systems applied in Turkey in the past to solve housing problems. Later, it describes current housing strategy to solve housing problems of low- and middle-income groups and also presents this strategy as a successful model to other countries. Moreover, mortgage law and the current situation of the Turkish housing sector are discussed within the study. Findings – As a result of economic normalization achieved after 2002, mortgage loans extended by commercial banks have increased in Turkey. Besides, governmental institutions, such as Housing Development Administration of Turkey (HDAT) and Istanbul Public Housing Corporation (KIPTAS), apply very extensive projects to allow low- and middle-income groups to have their dwellings. In 2007, the Turkish Parliament enacted mortgage law and defined rules and actors of the mortgage sector. However, as a consequence of economic deterioration in the world economy, mortgage loan receivables-backed securities could not be issued to public yet. Public issuance of mortgage loan receivables-backed securities in the future are expected to direct more long-term funds to the housing sector and also to provide an additional investment instrument for the individual and institutional investors. Originality/value – The housing production and finance models developed by the HDAT and KIPTAS can be good models for the solution of housing problems of urban poor in other countries.
 
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to compare the structure of risk and the structure of pricing in housing markets where the interaction between segments is taken into account with the structures that come about in a housing market approach that ignores this interplay. Knowing how most empirical assessments of whether housing markets are in or out of equilibrium is related to macroeconomic variables and is ignoring the interplay between segments our aim is to highlight the extent to which a homogeneous market framework underestimates pricing and risk in real housing markets. Design/methodology/approach – Framed in terms of a linearized housing market with two segments, the author derives expressions for house prices and house price risk in three scenarios. The author compares the structure of pricing and the structure of risk in a homogeneous housing market with those of two distinct heterogeneous housing markets where segments are linked as well analyzing as how prices and risk responds to shocks. Findings – The author derives expressions for market segment prices and for the house price index in three distinct housing market scenarios and shows how heterogeneous housing market frameworks produce both expressions for house prices and for house price risk, as well as a response in both risk and prices to shocks to demand, that deviate from those of a homogeneous housing market framework. While significantly underestimating house price risk a homogeneous framework might also be taken by surprise of the price response accompanying shocks to demand. Originality/value – The authors' simplistic expressions for house prices and house price risk provides a framework for bringing two distinct theoretical housing market camps onto the same playing field. The approach shows the value added of taking the interplay between market segments into account when analyzing housing market developments.
 
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to renew a research agenda considering the impact that information providers’ processes are having on the housing market; in particular to develop a research agenda around the role of the Internet in shaping households’ perceptions of the spatial nature of housing markets. Design/methodology/approach – This paper reviews the existing literature. It uses preliminary extensive survey findings about the role of the Internet in housing search to hypothesise ways in which households may be affected by this transition. Findings – Not applicable – other than evidence for the growth in the importance of the Internet in shaping households’ housing search. Practical implications – First, the academy needs to readdress the theory surrounding information acquisition and use insights from economics, sociology and psychology to understand these processes. Second, local authorities and academics should analyse the impact of Internet use on housing market boundaries (and the profound subsequent impact on policy traction). Third, estate agents should reconsider the role of the Internet in shaping housing markets and provide a critical response to the large property search engines. Originality/value – This paper reviews the literature and explores the necessity of a renewed interest in research on the role of information sources in framing and constraining housing search behaviour.
 
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a brief analytical summary of the current downturn in the UK housing sector. It then aims to ask whether the severity of the slowdown and its eventual consequences have been exacerbated by key aspects of housing and welfare policy. Design/methodology/approach – The paper examines: the promotion of property as an investment by successive UK governments since the Second World War; how the investment emphasis of policy enabled the promotion and growth of private rental partly funded through buy-to-let mortgages – a new financial product that allows individuals to take out a mortgage on a property for letting purposes; the expansion of cheap credit, due in part to the burgeoning securitised lending sector drawing heavily on housing equity (the decline of which is implicated in the current economic downturn); and reforms of the welfare system in the mid 1990s that have severely weakened the safety net for low-income mortgage borrowers who are most vulnerable to market turbulence. Findings – It was found that there are wider questions to be asked of the current downturn than how deep or how long the current recession will be. More important questions relate to the role that housing policy has played in exacerbating volatility and the future implications for modernizing housing policy. Research limitations/implications – The paper identifies a number of key research questions that follow from the analysis regarding the winners and losers of homeownership and the concomitant implications for policy. Originality/value – The paper identifies areas of government failure relevant to the current crisis and knowledge gaps that need to be addressed in order to develop a coherent evidence base on which to base future reform of housing policy. As such, the findings will be of interest to policy makers and housing researchers.
 
Article
Purpose ‐ The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of housing affordability in China's 35 large and medium cities. Furthermore, this paper investigates the relationship between housing affordability and the house prices using data from China's 35 large and medium cities from 1996 to 2007. Design/methodology/approach ‐ This paper constructed the housing affordability index and classified cities in terms of their housing affordability degree. OLS, unit root test and cointegration test have also been used in the empirical test section. Findings ‐ The results exhibit that the housing price has played a more important role in housing affordability than household income. Thereby, decreasing housing price is more important than household income to alleviate the housing affordability problem. Meanwhile, housing size has exerted a great impact on housing affordability. Accordingly, developing more affordable houses is an alternative to mitigate the housing affordability issue in China. In addition, it is also found that the housing reform facilitates the housing affordability issue due to the low sale price of the public houses; the population growth rate and geographic locations have no significant impact on the housing affordability. Research limitations/implications ‐ In terms of the research limitations, the heterogeneity factor may be introduced considering the regional heterogeneity of cities in China. Therefore, researchers are encouraged to test the propositions with enriched datasets. Practical implications ‐ Practical implications are that decision-makers in government should pay close attention to the risk of the housing bubble. That is, the soaring house price was driven by investment instead of by the demand side. Originality/value ‐ This paper contributes to defining the dynamic upper boundary of the percentage of housing expenditure to income ratio via Engel's coefficient using the housing market data of 35 large and medium cities in China from 1996 to 2007.
 
Article
Purpose – Housing is a composite asset comprising land and improved components varying as proportions of total value over space and time. Theory suggests land and improvements (structures) are unique goods responding differently to economic stimuli. This paper aims to test the expectation of different overall house price changes in response to variation in land and improved components. Design/methodology/approach – House price dynamics are decomposed to analyse the influence of land and structure components for the city of Perth, Australia both at aggregate level and for spatially defined housing sub-regions, sample period 1995-2010. Findings – Values of land and improvements on that land evolve differently over time and are significantly influenced by the magnitude of land leverage. The study extends previous research through extensive spatial disaggregation of a larger more detailed data set than previously used in studies of this type confirming significant variation in land leverage ratios, overall price change and growth rates for land and improvements in sub-regional markets defined by spatial criteria. Research limitations/implications – The results suggest an important role for policy development with respect to housing affordability and supply side regulation of land in large urban housing markets. Practical implications – The results suggest important implications for hedonic price analysis of housing markets. The inclusion of land leverage variables in hedonic regression could remove coefficient bias associated with omitted location amenity variables. Originality/value – The paper adapts methodology from previous studies but extends previous literature through detailed analysis of a large Australian housing market (Perth) enabling extensive spatial disaggregation of the sample and providing greater insight to spatial variation of land leverage than in previous studies.
 
Responses of HPI movements to one unit shock in Melbourne  
Spatial correlation patterns of the house price levels  
Article
Purpose – A panel error correction model has been developed to investigate the spatial correlation patterns among house prices. This paper aims to identify a dominant housing market in the ripple down process. Design/methodology/approach – Seemingly unrelated regression estimators are adapted to deal with the contemporary correlations and heterogeneity across cities. Impulse response functions are subsequently implemented to simulate the spatial correlation patterns. The newly developed approach is then applied to the Australian capital city house price indices. Findings – The results suggest that Melbourne should be recognised as the dominant housing market. Four levels were classified within the Australian house price interconnections, namely: Melbourne; Adelaide, Canberra, Perth and Sydney; Brisbane and Hobart; and Darwin. Originality/value – This research develops a panel regression framework in addressing the spatial correlation patterns of house prices across cities. The ripple-down process of house price dynamics across cities was explored by capturing both the contemporary correlations and heterogeneity, and by identifying the dominant housing market.
 
Article
Purpose This study aims to investigate the house purchase behavior of low‐income Saudis regarding the sources of financing they wish to have access to, their preferences for alternative financing options, and the monthly payment amounts they could afford to make in case of mortgage financing across demographic groups. Design/methodology/approach A survey with a sample of 815 low‐income respondents with a monthly income of SR7,000 was conducted using a structured questionnaire. Findings The main findings of the study are that the loan from the government Real Estate Development Fund (REDF) is found to be the most preferred financing alternative, the second being cash payment; whilst the most frequently indicated option for monthly mortgage payments is between SR1,000 and SR1,500 (US$267 and US$400) among low‐income Saudis. Research limitations/implications This study provides a snapshot of low‐income Saudi consumers' knowledge of financing options and their choice among alternative financing options. Practical implications This also offers opportunities for real estate developers to seek competitive advantage by coming up with innovative financing options to target low‐income earners. Originality/value There is limited published work exploring consumer knowledge of house purchase finance options that captures this phenomenon from the perspectives of low‐income Saudi consumers. This study contributes in filling this gap.
 
Article
Purpose – This paper aims to examine the determinants of socioeconomic factors on housing prices and their differential effects among regions. Design/methodology/approach – This study employs a hierarchical linear model to analyze the housing and socioeconomic data of 363 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the USA. Findings – This study generates four findings. First, the population, the percentage of the elderly in population, violent crime rates, and foreclosure rates produce greater effects on housing prices in the Northeast than those in the West. Second, the population produces a greater effect on housing prices in the Northeast than those in the Midwest. Third, mortgage rates produce less significant effects on housing prices in the Northeast than those in the Midwest. Fourth, the population, the percentage of the elderly in population, and rent-income ratio produce greater effects on housing prices in the Northeast than those in the South. Research limitations/implications – Based on data collected for 2010, this study analyzes socioeconomic factors on the demand side under the implicit assumption that supply side remains constant. Future research can lift the restriction on fixed supply assumption. Practical implications – The results can provide information to buyers and sellers about how socioeconomic factors affect housing prices. Moreover, this study also provides useful information for the government to design and implement relevant housing policies. Originality/value – This is the pioneering study to examine the differential effect of socioeconomic factors on metropolitan housing prices among regions by employing dummy regional variables to detect changes in slope coefficients. These detailed conclusions would enhance the efficiency of transaction in housing markets.
 
Article
Purpose This study aims to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on housing price within four major metropolitan areas in Texas: Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. The analysis intends to understand economic and mobility drivers behind the housing market under the inclusion of fixed and random effects. Design/methodology/approach This study used a linear mixed effects model to assess the socioeconomic and housing and transport-related factors contributing to median home prices in four major cities in Texas and to capture unobserved factors operating at spatial and temporal level during the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings The regression results indicated that an increase in new COVID-19 cases resulted in an increase in housing price. Additionally, housing price had a significant and negative relationship with the following variables: business cycle index, mortgage rate, percent of single-family homes, population density and foot traffic. Interestingly, unemployment claims did not have a significant impact on housing price, contrary to previous COVID-19 housing market related literature. Originality/value Previous literature analyzed the housing market within the first phase of COVID-19, whereas this study analyzed the effects of the COVID-19 throughout the entirety of 2020. The mixed model includes spatial and temporal analyses as well as provides insight into how quantitative-based mobility behavior impacted housing price, rather than relying on qualitative indicators such as shutdown order implementation.
 
Article
Purpose For almost two years, the economic shocks and financial uncertainty created by the Covid-19 pandemic have affected all sectors. The private sector employees may be the worst hit. This is because of the lockdown across many countries, including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), leading to income irregularities. Studies exploring private-sector employees concerning housing finance for the houses purchased and how the lockdown has affected their sources of income for repayment plans are scarce. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the possible early negative impacts of Covid-19 on private sector employees’ housing finance homeownership in KSA. Design/methodology/approach A phenomenology type of qualitative research was used. Data were sourced from three cities (Riyadh, Al-Qassim and Medina) and three mortgage banks across KSA. Virtual interviews via Zoom and WhatsApp video calls were conducted with engaged participants (bankers, government agencies and private sector employees). Thematic analysis was adopted, and the analysed data was presented in themes. Findings Findings show that the partial and full lockdown resulted in income irregularities in many private businesses. Also, findings identified downsizing, leading to large-scale unemployment, half-monthly income for employees, loss of profit, human resources wastage, etc. Findings reveal that because of the economic shock, many homeowners have not been able to meet up with their monthly mortgage repayment obligation. Also, the absence of financial support in form of socioeconomic needs has not helped the matter. Research limitations/implications The paper is limited to the early negative impacts of Covid-19 on private sector employees’ housing finance homeownership in KSA and data collected via Zoom and WhatsApp video calls across the three main cities. The recommendations that will emerge from this study may be adopted by other Gulf and Islamic countries with similar homeownership repayment challenges. Practical implications This study would stir key stakeholders, especially the policymakers and mortgage institutions to consider future policy principles that focus on who is at the highest risk for housing-related hardships because of the Covid-19 or future pandemic. The outcome can be used to develop an equitable housing policy framework to foster long-term economic mobility and be validated in the future by scholars. Originality/value Similar research in this area is limited, which makes this study one of the pioneering attempts to investigate the early negative impacts of Covid-19 on private sector employees’ housing finance homeownership in KSA. The paper sheds light on the emerged early negative impacts and proffer feasible possible solutions to promote homeownership amongst Saudi citizens.
 
Article
Purpose India is one of those countries that are severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. With the upsurge in the cases, the country recorded high unemployment rates, economic uncertainties and slugging growth rates. This adversely affected the real estate sector in India. As the relation of the housing market with the gross domestic product is quite lasting thus, the decline in housing prices has severely impacted the economic growth of the nation. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to gauge the asymmetric impact of COVID-19 shocks on housing prices in India. Design/methodology/approach Studies revealed the symmetric impact of macroeconomic variables, and contingencies on housing prices dominate the literature. However, the assumption of linearity fails to apprehend the asymmetric dynamics of the housing sector. Thus, the author uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to address this limitation and test the existence of short- and long-run asymmetry. Findings The findings revealed the long- and short-run asymmetric impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and the peak of the COVID-19 on housing prices. The results indicate that the peak of COVID-19 had a greater impact on housing prices in comparison to the outbreak of COVID-19. This can be explained as prices will revert to normal at a speed of 0.978% with the decline in the number of COVID-19 cases. Whereas the housing prices rise at a rate of 0.714 as a result of government intervention to deal with the ill effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Moreover, it can be inferred that both the outbreak and peak of COVID-19 will lead to a minimal decline in housing prices, while with the decline in the number of cases and reduction in the impact of the outbreak of COVID, the housing prices will rise at an increasing rate. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to understand the impact of the outbreak and peak of COVID-19 on the housing prices separately.
 
Article
Purpose This paper aims to examine the implications for the Irish housing market of the economic slowdown due to the Covid-19 virus. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, an inverted demand function for housing is augmented to include a residential market activity variable and estimate the impact on house prices of the decline in economic activity due to the virus-related measures. The likely future path of house prices based on two different recovery scenarios is also examined. Under both scenarios house prices are forecast to decline in the near term. Findings The scenario analysis presented here indicates that Irish house prices are set to fall over the next 18 months as a result of the Covid-19 downturn. This contraction in prices is due to the decline in household disposable income and the sharp fall-off in mortgage market activity, which will inevitably result from the administrative closedown implemented by the Irish authorities. Originality/value As such the approach builds on several studies which have examined both house price movements in general and the relationship between house prices and mortgage credit availability. The paper also draws on the latest analysis of the implications for the Irish economy of Covid-19 and the related administrative closure methods introduced by the public authorities.
 
Robust model for the asymmetric relationship in pricing Turkey and Kazakhstan HPI
Article
Purpose This paper aims to investigate asymmetric pricing behaviour and impact of coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic shocks on house price index (HPI) of Turkey and Kazakhstan. Design/methodology/approach Monthly HPIs and consumer price index (CPI) data ranges from 2010M1 to 2020M5 are used. This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for empirical analysis. Findings The findings of this study reveal that the Covid-19 pandemic exerted both long-run and short-run asymmetric relationship on HPI of Turkey while in Kazakhstan, the long-run impact of Covid-19 pandemic shock is symmetrical long-run positive effect is similar in both HPI markets. Research limitations/implications The main limitations of this study are the study scope and data set due to data constraint. Several other macroeconomic variables may affect housing prices; however, variables used in this study satisfy the focus of this study in the presence of data constraint. HPI and CPI variables were made available on monthly basis for a considerably longer period which guaranteed the ranges of data set used in this study. Practical implications Despite the limitation, this study provides necessary information for authorities and prospective investors in HPI to make a sound investment decision. Originality/value This is the first study that rigorously and simultaneously examines the pricing behaviour of Turkey and Kazakhstan HPIs in relation to the Covid-19 pandemic shocks at the regional level. HPI of Kazakhstan is recognized in the global real estate transparency index but the study is rare. The study contributes to regional studies on housing price by bridging this gap in the real estate literature.
 
Article
Purpose This study aims to analyze the impact of technology-based corporation relocation on housing price indices during COVID-19 within the metropolitan areas of Austin, Texas and Seattle/Bellevue, Washington.The corporations under observation were Tesla and Amazon, respectively. The analysis intends to understand economic drivers behind the housing market and the radius of its effect while including fixed and random effects. Design/methodology/approach This study used a difference-in-difference (DID) method to evaluate changes in housing price index near and further away from Tesla’s and Amazon’s new corporate locations. The DID method allows for the capture of unique regional characteristics, as it requires a treatment and control group: housing price index and 5-mile and 10-mile search radii centered from the new corporate location. Findings The results indicated that corporate relocation announcements had a positive effect on housing price index post-pandemic. Specifically, the effect of Tesla’s relocation in Austin on the housing price index was not concentrated near the relocation site, but beyond the 5- and 10-mile radii. For Seattle/Bellevue, the effect of Amazon’s relocation announcement on housing price index was concentrated near the relocation site as well as beyond a 10-mile radius. Interestingly, these findings suggest housing markets incorporate speculation of prospective economic expansion linked with a corporate relocation. Originality/value Previous literature assessed COVID-19 housing market conditions and the economic effects of corporate relocation separately, whereas this study analyzed the housing price effects of corporate relocation during COVID-19. The DID method includes spatial and temporal analyses that allow for the impact of housing price to be observed across specified radii rather than a city-wide impact analysis.
 
Article
Purpose ‐ Rents are both a very important cost variable in the housing market, having large welfare and distributional implication, and one of the most important variables in house price research. The aim of this paper is to construct rent indices for Norway's capital, Oslo. Design/methodology/approach ‐ This paper uses a unique dataset with 24,257 housing for rent advertisements, creating hedonic indices using the time dummy variable method. Findings ‐ In this paper, the author presents annual rent indices for Norway's capital, Oslo, over the period from 1970 to 2008. In addition to an aggregate index, they construct hedonic rent indices for different flat types. Originality/value ‐ Existing Norwegian rent indices start around 2000 or are constructed with the purpose of being a part of the CPI, and are therefore adjusted for change in quality. Since the author's indices are not adjusted for quality, they give new information about Norwegian rent for the past 40 years.
 
Article
Purpose This paper aims to present a panel data econometric model of the main determinants of house prices in the ten largest census metropolitan areas (CMA) in Ontario, Canada, for the years 2001, 2006 and 2011. The impact of immigration on the housing market in Canada is little researched; however, immigration plays an important role into the economy of Canada. According to Statistics Canada, not only is immigration key to Canada’s population growth but also without immigration, in the next 20 years, Canada’s population growth will be zero. The motivation for this study is the bursting of housing bubbles in some developed countries (e.g. USA). The authors analyze variables that are related to the immigration policy in Canada, accounting also for the impact of the interest rate, income, unemployment, household size and housing supply to analyze housing price determinants. The study investigates the magnitude of the impact of the top three leading categories of immigrants to Canada, namely, Chinese, Indian and Filipino, on the housing prices in Ontario’s largest cities. The results show the main factors that explain home prices over time that are interest rate, immigration, unemployment rate, household size and income. Over the 10-year period from 2001 to 2011, immigration grew by 400 per cent in Toronto CMA, the largest receiving area in Ontario, while the nonimmigrant population grew by 14 per cent. For Toronto CMA, immigrants, income, unemployment rate and interest rate explain the CA$158,875 average home price increase over the 2001-2011 time period. Out of this, the three categories of immigrants’ share of total home price increase is 54.57 per cent, with the corresponding interest rate share 58.60 per cent and income share 11.32 per cent of the total price growth. Unemployment rate contributes negatively to the housing price and its share of the total price increase is 24.49 per cent. Design/methodology/approach The framework for the empirical analysis applies the hedonic pricing model theory to housing sales prices for the ten largest CMAs in Ontario over the years 2001-2011. Following Akbari and Aydede (2012) and O’Meara (2015), market clearing in the housing market results in the housing price as a function of several housing attributes. The authors selected the housing attributes based on data availability for the Canadian Census years of 2001, 2006 and 2011 and the variables that have been most used in the literature. The model has the average housing prices as the dependent variable, and the independent variables are: immigrants per dwelling (Chinese, Indian, and Filipino), unemployment rate, average employment income, household size, housing supply and the interest rate. To capture the relative scarcity of dwellings, the independent variable immigrants per dwelling was used. Findings This study seems to suggest that one cause of high prices in Ontario is large inflows of immigrants together with low mortgage interest rate. The authors focused their attention on Toronto CMA, as it is the main destination of immigrants and comprises the largest cities, including Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton and Oakville. Looking over the 10-year period from 2001 to 2011, the authors can see the factors that impact the home prices in Toronto CMA: immigration, unemployment rate, household size, interest rate and income. Over the period of 10 years from 2001 to 2011, immigrants’ group from China, India and the Philippines account for CA$86,701 increase in the home price (54.57 per cent share of the total increase). Income accounts for CA$17,986 increase in the home price (11.32 per cent share); interest rate accounts for CA$93,103 of the average home price increase in Toronto CMA (58.60 per cent share); and unemployment rate accounts for CA$38,916 decrease in the Toronto average home prices (24.49 per cent share). Household size remain stable over time in Toronto (2.8 average household size) and does not have a contribution to home price change. All these four factors, interest rate, immigrants, unemployment rate and income, together explain CA$158,875 increase in home prices in Toronto CMA between 2001 and 2011. Practical implications The housing market price analysis may be more complex, and there may be factors impacting the housing prices extending beyond immigration, interest rate, income and household size. Finally, the results of this paper can be extended to include the most recent census data for the year 2016 to reflect more accurately the price situation in the housing market for Ontario cities. Social implications The fact that currently, in 2017, the young working population cannot afford buying a property in the Toronto CMA area means there is a problem with this market and a corresponding decrease in the quality of life. According to The Globe and Mail (July 2017), a new pool in 2017 suggested that two in five Canadians believe housing in this country is not affordable for them. Further, 38 per cent of respondents who consider themselves middle or upper class believe in no affordability of housing. The Trudeau Government promised Canadians a national housing strategy for affordable housing. Designing a national housing strategy may be challenging because it has to account for the differential income ranges across regions. Municipal leaders are asking the government to prioritize repair and construct new affordable housing. Another reason discussed in the media of the unaffordability of housing in Toronto and Vancouver is foreign buyers. The Canadian Government recently implemented a tax measure on what it may seem the housing bubble problem: foreign buyers. Following Vancouver, in April 2017, Ontario Government imposed a 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers who are not Canadian citizens or permanent residents. This tax is levied on houses purchased in the area stretching from Niagara Region and Greater Toronto to Peterborough. Originality/value Few studies use Canadian data to explain house prices and analyze the effect of immigration on housing prices. There is not much research on the effect of the immigrants and immigrants’ ethnicity (e.g., Chinese, Indian and Filipino immigrants), on the housing prices in Canada cities. This study investigates the impact of the most prevalent immigrant races (e.g., from China, India and the Philippines) on housing prices, using data for Canadian major cities in Ontario within a panel data econometric framework. This paper fills this gap and contributes to the literature, which analyzes the determinants of housing prices based on a panel of cities in the Canadian province of Ontario.
 
Article
Purpose This paper aims to understand the paradoxal development in Buenos Aires, Argentina, where economic growth was not accompanied by improved housing access. The period between the years 2003 and 2013 was characterized by a sustained economic growth with social inclusion and a great expansion of both social and private housing supply in the cities of Argentina. However, this growth was not accompanied by an improvement in the overall access to land and housing. On the contrary, the habitation problems in terms of access to formal, environmentally safe and well-located land with decent facilities have worsened. The City of Buenos Aires is one of the places where this paradox is most manifested. Design/methodology/approach The functioning of the land markets and the real estate development in Buenos Aires will be analyzed in the period 2003-2013 in relation to the macroeconomic context, the monetary effort for the acquisition and rent of a formal dwelling and certain logics of urban development. Findings The rhythm of urban land valorization continuously surpassed that of other commodities and services. The expansion of residential production did not improve the access to formal housing. On the contrary, habitation issues have worsened and conflicts concerning access to land, housing and the city have rapidly increased since 2003. Originality/value In a Latin American context, this paper is the first to establish a conceptual relationship based on empirical data between land price dynamics and real estate development. The paper is also original in its identification of a change in valorization rhythm and pattern of real estate development in the past decade (2003-2013).
 
Article
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide an estimate of the demand and supply in the housing market in Colombia in a period of high real estate valuation (2005-2016). On the demand side, it evaluates the impact of new housing prices, unemployment, stock market returns, real wages in the retail sector, remittances and mortgage rates. On the supply side, it estimates the influence of the price of new housing, construction costs, time deposit (TD) and mortgage rates. Real estate valuation was analyzed considering foreigners migration and land prices evolution. Design/methodology/approach Ordinary least squares (OLS) was used to estimate housing area with the semilog regression model and also to construct price models. OLS was also used in price models. Since quantities depend on prices and vice versa, a two-stage least squares (2SLS) was implemented. Findings Rising prices in new homes have an “elastic” effect on both demand and even higher effect on supply. Likewise, the real wage index for the retail sector has an elastic effect. On the other hand, the response to interest rates is negative, but statistically significant only on the supply side. Furthermore, the inflow of remittances is “inelastic” and statistically insignificant. Originality/value Housing can sometimes be a Giffen good, this result challenges the traditional neoclassical model, but it can be explained by investment reasons and “bubble” behavior in the housing market. One last influence is the difference between “temporary” and “permanent” migrations. The latter has a statistically significant and perfectly inelastic effect on the price of new homes.
 
Map of study area with ZIP code zones
ZIP code zones with greater than 2 percent mortgage failures for each year 2005-2008 
Graph of simulated basic model and calculation of tipping point
Article
Purpose ‐ Mortgage defaults within a neighborhood may tip the scales whereby a vicious cycle of disinvestment and deterioration in the surrounding neighborhoods begins. This paper aims to examine the impact that mortgage default has on properties in the same ZIP code and neighboring ZIP codes. Design/methodology/approach ‐ Hypothesizing that neighborhoods' susceptibility to cascade failure can be measured by the rate of acceleration of mortgage failures within the neighborhood, the paper introduces a model to investigate whether or not this vicious cycle is such that mortgage failures multiply, and there is a tipping point at which the downward cycle accelerate. Findings ‐ The paper applies the model to data for the Los Angeles metropolitan area for the period 2006-2007 and finds evidence of a tipping point. Research limitations/implications ‐ The paper is limited by the availability of data with respect to both time and space. Practical implications ‐ A failure tipping point will provide a signal that mortgage crisis is pending. Reacting to this signal could allow financial markets to avert such crises in the future. Social implications ‐ Some neighborhoods may resist being labelled as one with significant mortgage failure activity. This resistance may cause a negative reaction to these results and implementation for the findings. Originality/value ‐ To-date, no evidence of a mortgage failure tipping point has been discovered in the literature.
 
Article
Purpose The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that the conventional mortgage system is not appropriate for household finance because it encourages equity extraction and excessive leverage during housing boom and leads to negative equity during a housing bust, a situation that translates into mortgage defaults and foreclosures. Home financing could alternatively be structured as a diminishing partnership preventing the homeowner from ever having negative equity. Design/methodology/approach Using Johansen’s cointegration test, the authors provide evidence of a long-run relationship between the delinquency rates, volume of refinancing and the change in house price index (HPI) during the 1994–2019 period. To unravel the short run dynamics between these variables, the authors used a Granger causality test that concludes that the volume of refinancing and the change in the HPI Granger cause default rates. Findings The authors provide evidence that under the current conventional mortgage system, excessive refinancing opportunities and equity extraction that are the main factors determining delinquency rates leading to a non-sustainable homeownership. Practical implications If mortgages were such that they do not incentivize defaults and foreclosures during a housing downturn, the recovery of the housing market always leads to capital gains. Therefore, disincentivizing refinancing and equity extraction would lead to a more sustainable homeownership. Social implications Households would be encouraged to pursue sustainable homeownership through a partnership-based model with long-term wealth accumulation for themselves and their heirs rather than short-term home ownership through the conventional mortgage system, leading to negative equity and defaults when the housing market slumps. Originality/value Policymakers ought to rethink the mortgage design by promoting partnership-based finance to protect the equity a household accumulates over a lifetime and thereby enhancing stable and sustainable homeownership.
 
Article
Purpose This study aims to explore the effect of Saudi Vision 2030 and its government initiatives on macroeconomic variables related to housing. Design/methodology/approach This exploratory study used an empirical–analytical approach. Based on secondary data, a set of hypotheses was contrasted to verify whether there has been any change in the trends of macroeconomic variables related to housing after Saudi Vision 2030 entered into force. Findings The results show that the trend of percentage of housing ownership went from a continuous decrease to accelerated growth since the implementation of Saudi Vision 2030. However, the effect of these advances is not observed in non-oil gross domestic product (GDP) or in the economic activities of the construction, real estate and financial services sectors. Research limitations/implications This study notes that despite successful housing outcomes, it appears that Saudi Vision 2030 does not have a positive impact on non-oil GDP. Consequently, government entities should review the degree to which other economic activities contribute to non-oil GDP. A limitation of the study was that the GDP of housing construction and marketing and that of granting mortgage loans were not specifically available, nor were data on public and private investment made for implementing government initiatives. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to explore the effect of Saudi Vision 2030 on housing and its contribution to the economy.
 
Article
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to discuss the housing delivery within the Saudi Vision 2030 through an in-depth reading of the Saudi Vision 2030 from the researcher’s point of view and to identify the most significant aspects that may affect housing delivery in the country. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the desktop study technique was followed to review the key related literature, collect the data and analyze secondary data. The content analysis technique was used for data analysis of gathered documents and secondary data. Findings The findings reveal that there are several commitments in the Saudi Vision 2030 from the Saudi Government to be an exemplary leading nation in all aspects, including the delivery of affordable housing. Housing shortage, housing cost, demographic changes and land scarcity are identified as significant reasons for the lack of providing affordable housing. Research limitations/implications The opinions of policymakers is very important, but due to time limitation, it has not been addressed. Future research can assess the Saudi Vision 2030 based on the study of the policymakers, professionals and academics to have better insights. Originality/value The paper contributes to discussing the housing delivery within the Saudi Vision 2030 and identifying the most significant aspects that may affect the housing delivery from the researcher’s point of view. Only a few studies have discussed the housing issues within the Saudi Vision 2030.
 
Article
Purpose This paper aims to provide insights into Arabic-Australian community attitudes regarding social innovation of a new shared model of accommodation for the 65+ age group to facilitate independent behavior within a shared living environment. Design/methodology/approach A survey of 520 people of whom 65 per cent were Arabic speakers either by mother or second language. Survey responses were filtered to Arabic speakers and further analyzed to identify groups characterized by the latent attitudes underlying responses. Findings The results confirmed the presence of two small groups representing in aggregate 13 per cent of sample variance who have positive attitudes toward 65+ age group shared accommodation for either themselves or their parents. These respondents focused on companionship and cultural factors rather than potential financial or medical benefits from the new model. Research limitations/implications The application of an empirical Bayes methodology to the limited data in this research implicitly restricts the interpretation of the results to the Australian-Arabic community that was investigated. Practical implications The results of this research provide a sound basis for private sector interest in exploring differentiated architectures and business models that will facilitate choices of shared accommodation by the Australian-Arabic 65+ year age group. Social implications This finding aligns with increasing health and mobility more widely among the rapidly growing 65+ year old segment of the Australian population and with recent Australian Government restructuring of age care to introduce greater personal accountability for self-care. Originality/value This research is original and important in setting future directions for expanding the richness of choice in Australian-Arabic community retirement living.
 
Article
Purpose – This paper aims to assess the Jos Plateau Tin-mining region as an abandoned mine area being used for housing development with a view to make recommendations. Design/methodology/approach – Utilising secondary data, which maps out ten different locations in the region, this paper highlights the level of radioactive substances (X-ray, beta and gamma rays) and the presence of heavy metals in the environment, abandoned mines, home for the people as well as housing development within a derelict region. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with heads of selected settlement within the Jos Plateau Tin-mining region. Findings – Subsequent analysis shows that the radioactive substances exceed the international standards and therefore have a serious impact on the health of the local population who reside in the affected area. This is particularly significant as people use the contaminated soil as a basic material for their homes as well as farming and food production. Research limitations/implications – With overpopulation of neighbouring city and rising house prices, an increasing number of people have moved to the Tin-mining areas often without any knowledge about the perils of contaminated soil. At the same time, the planning authority has no presence in the affected area, as it falls outside its jurisdiction. Practical implications – However, there is an urgent need to address this problem and prevent people from moving to this area, otherwise this would become a serious long-term human catastrophe. Social implications – Drawing from international experience, the paper argues that it is possible to develop housing in former Tin-mining areas but require careful remediation and engagement by the public and private sector. Originality/value – The discussion in this paper makes a case for appropriate physical planning measure as people build their homes on the abandoned Tin-mining areas, with the presences of heavy metals and radioactive substances which are dangerous to human health where the governments have not made provision to address the problem. It is a bridge linking a previous paper on the environment and now consideration on housing/home which together form part of an ongoing PhD research “A potential application of spatial planning in Jos, Nigeria”.
 
Article
Purpose Tax sales intersect with the market, housing policy and socioeconomic matters, but the topic in this context is understudied. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether and how land banking is more effective in fostering positive property outcomes than tax lien sales and what market-based measures can be combined with land banking to reuse tax delinquent, vacant and abandoned properties. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyzes the consequences of tax lien sales and land banking in Indianapolis, Indiana, the USA. Various local data sources are used. Findings This paper finds that land banking, when compared to tax lien sales, results in less tax delinquency, less vacancy and abandonment, more increase in assessed value and fewer ownership changes after sales. Also, this paper shows the contributions of non-profit and for-profit developers as business partners to land banks. Practical implications This paper demonstrates the utility of the land banks that have become prevalent in some states in the USA over the past 20 years. The results of this paper recommend the realistic approach of combining government intervention and market forces. Social implications This paper sheds light on the US practice of tax lien sales. It goes largely unnoticed, but malpractice risks harming the vulnerable members of community. Originality/value Housing policy needs to find common ground with the market. It is a dilemma, more or less, for every country. The results of this paper suggest a harmonized public policy approach that includes land banking and the market can be effective in combatting with troubled properties.
 
Article
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the differences between the actual mortgage prompt and late payments and their respective expected measures from 2004 to 2010 to spot early symptoms of housing crisis. Design/methodology/approach This paper explores these discrepancies across the entire US market and along various delinquency lengths of 30, 60 and 90 days. This paper constructs a Bayesian forecasting model that relies on prior distributional properties of diverse time horizons. Findings Abnormal mortgage delinquency rates are identified in real time and can be served as early symptoms for housing crisis. Practical implications The statistical scheme proposed in this paper can function as a valuable predictive tool for lending institutions, bank audit companies, regulatory bodies and real estate professional investors who examine changes in economic settings and trends in short sale leads. Social implications The abnormal mortgage delinquencies can serve as indicators of changes in economic fundamentals and early signs of a mounting housing crisis. Originality/value This paper presents a unique statistical technique in the context of mortgage delinquencies.
 
Article
Coefficients of housing attributes in most hedonic specifications are held constant under the assumption that each attribute has one unique marginal price throughout the entire market area. However, there's increasing evidence that the marginal prices of some key housing attributes do vary according to particular systematic patterns. In this paper, we employed expansion methods by incorporating both {X, Y} coordinates and buyer's characteristics to examine the spatial and socio-economic heterogeneities in housing attribute prices within the Shenzhen, China housing market. The results provide strong evidence that the marginal prices of key housing attributes are not constant but vary with household profile and absolute-location context. Besides, it is strongly proved that spatial expansion method with {X, Y} coordinates is also practicable to property assessment and urban studies of China.
 
Article
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine the effect of negative information on the volatility of real estate residential prices in Abuja, Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach The empirical research covers a sample period of 17 years from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2017. The leverage effect of Abuja’s real estate residential price volatility is determined. Exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity is used to determine the ARCH shock, GARCH persistence and the leverage effect of the volatility of residential prices in Abuja. Findings The research found that the volatility of real estate prices varies from one category of residential property to another. The leverage effect was found only in the price of two and three bedroom flats in Abuja. Originality/value The findings provide useful information on the volatility of real estate prices for real estate investors. The study has policy implications for the regulation of measures that gradually checkmate the patterns of volatility in the Nigerian real estate market. It also controls negative information (such as a fall of crude oil prices, high costs of building materials, inconsistency of macro-economic policies and insecurity and political uncertainty) which mainly raises the level of uncertainty in the market and exposes investors to risk.
 
Top-cited authors
Chyi Lin Lee
  • UNSW Sydney
Hanudin Amin
  • Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS)
Philipp Schäfer
  • Universität Regensburg
Martin Haran
  • Ulster University
Michael Mccord
  • Ulster University