Target-bounds models and buffer stock models in the presence of adjustment costs imply nonlinear functional forms for the aggregate demand for money characterized by smooth adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. This paper presents a stable empirical model for the demand for narrow money in Italy using high quality annual data spanning from Italian unification in 1861 through to 1991. A unique, theory consistent long-run function is obtained jointly with the short-run dynamic demand function by estimating a nonlinear error correction model in the form of an exponential smooth transition regression. The model proposed variance-dominates, encompasses and fits better than various linear and nonlinear alternative specifications. Copyright @ 1999 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.
This paper tests the properties of the zloty-dollar exchange rate for the possible presence of unknown non-linearities. It concludes that there is strong evidence for the presence of an underlying non-linear process which is possibly chaotic. A non-linear model which allows for discrete switching between regimes seems to capture most of the non-linear behaviour. Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.
This paper develops a market-based measure of devaluation expectations derived from the relative stock market performance of companies with different exposures of current and future profits to exchange-rate changes. The measure can be viewed as a complement to measures of devaluation expectations based on interest-rate-parity conditions, survey data or macroeconomic models. Some of the benefits of the measure are that data are available on a timely basis and that the stock market has traditionally been free of central bank intervention. As an illustration, we examine the Mexican devaluation of 1994. Contrary to what might have been expected given the alleged peso overvaluation, high-net-exporting firms outperformed the market beginning in late 1993. This pattern is, on the other hand, consistent with forward-looking stock prices that assigned an increasing probability to a devaluation benefiting exporting firms. Copyright @ 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.
In this paper we examine the causal linkages between the G-7 long-term interest rates by using a new technique, which enables the researcher to analyse relations between a set of I(1) series without imposing any identification conditions based on economic theory. Specifically, we apply the so-called Extended Davidson's Methodology (EDM), which is based on the innovative concept of an irreducible cointegrating (IC) vector, defined as a subset of a cointegrating relation that does not have any cointegrated subsets. Ranking the irreducible vectors according to the criterion of minimum variance allows us to distinguish between structural and solved relations. The empirical results provide support for the hypothesis that larger, more stable economies can achieve policy objectives more successfully by accommodating rather than driving other countries' policies. It appears that the driving force is Canada, which is linked to the USA, UK and France in three out of the four fundamental relations, and which is a reference point for the US, Italian and German rates, which are not cointegrated, seem to be determined by country-specific factors. Copyright @ 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.
Significant deviations from covered interest parity were observed during the financial crisis of 2007–2009. This paper finds that before the failure of Lehman Brothers market-wide funding liquidity risk was the main determinant of these deviations measured by swap-implied US dollar (USD) interest rates for the euro, British pound, Hong Kong dollar, Japanese yen, Singapore dollar and Swiss Franc relative to US Libor rates. This evidence suggests that the deviations can be explained by the existence and nature of liquidity constraints. After the Lehman default, both counterparty risk and funding liquidity risk in the European economies were the significant determinants of the positive deviations found for these currencies, while the tightened liquidity condition in the USD was the main driving factor of the negative deviations in the Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore markets. The negative deviations reflect the fact that these markets became alternative dollar funding sources as borrowing in the European economies became more difficult. Federal Reserve Swap lines with other central banks that eased the liquidity pressure reduced the positive deviations in the European economies.
In common with privatisation issues around the world, those of UK utilities have earned very high returns on a continuing basis. This presents an asset pricing puzzle and has been used as a justification for the imposition of a "windfall" tax. This paper presents a framework for analysing the composition of these returns and for judging the extent to which they can be regarded as abnormal. It provides evidence that even the existence of abnormal returns depends crucially on the assumptions made with regard to their measurement. A general model that allows for time variation in investors' perceptions of risk reveals that the extent of the abnormal returns is much smaller than first thought, being present in only very few companies. In most cases, the observed high stock returns appear to be a reward for bearing risk and should not be regarded as abnormal. Copyright @ 2000 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.