Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems

Published by Croatian Interdisciplinary Society
Online ISSN: 1334-4676
Print ISSN: 1334-4684
Total number of articles by author(s) from Croatia (grey boxes) and from Croatian Universities (white boxes), published between 1996 and 2004, registered in SCI-Expanded.  
The paper aims at assessing the research output of scientists working in "hard sciences" at six Croatian Univeristies (Dubrovnik, Osijek, Rijeka, Split, Zadar and Zagreb). The data obtained may serve as the starting point for further follow-up and in-depth studies of research performance at Croatian universities. This can be particularly relevant for implementation of the Bologna Process in Croatia. The methodology of the Academic Ranking of World Universities (2004) was applied ( The number of papers published from 1996 to 2004, registered in the WoS-Science Citation Index-Expanded, authored by scientists from the six Croatian universities, was enumerated. Also, highly cited authors, authors of articles published in Nature and Science, Nobel Prize and Fields Medal winners were sought among these scientists. It was found that scientists at the Croatian universities produced 7527 of the total of 11068 articles authored by Croatian scientists. Of the six universities, the University of Zagreb was more productive than the remaining five. There were no highly cited authors, Nobel Laureates or Fields Medal winners from Croatia. One of 14 authors of an article in Science was from a Croatian university. Also, a letter on science policy, appearing in Nature, had one of two authors from Croatia. It can be concluded that scientists performing research in "hard sciences" at six universities in Croatia contributed about 68 % of all the articles published by Croatian scientists. University of Zagreb was the most productive.
The article presents a sustainability assessment of the beet-to-sugar production system in Sweden from 2003 until 2015. It focuses on the life-cycle phases of beet growing, beet transport and sugar processing. Based on the Swedish sustainable development strategy, eight indicators in environmental and socio-economic domains based significantly on EU price and production quota changes are assessed. The study also appraises the autumn wheat-to-flour production system as an alternative scenario to provide a better understanding of the overall impacts on the region of the effects of the EU price and quota changes. The method used is a system analysis (simulation) model developed with the software STELLA 9.1. The study is a part of a broader regional sustainability assessment that focuses on the sugar sector in Sweden. Model results of the combined sugar and flour systems show general declines in agricultural landscape diversity and revenues earned in the region with only slight decreases in the number of full-time jobs in the region. Results also reveal decreases in the amount of nutrient runoff, fossil fuel energy use, greenhouse gas releases and field chemical use, with more substantial decreases in biodiversity via the suspension of organic beet growing in the region.
A Hegelian version of the concept of problematic is used to investigate the underlying theoretical unity and structure of Arabic physical science (physics, astronomy and chemistry). A contradictory triad (associated with Platonism, Aristotelian philosophy and Ptolemaic science) is identified at the heart of the Arabic project for physical science. The paper focuses on the valiant attempts made by leading Arabic scientists to overcome these contradictions without transcending or tearing apart the prevailing problematic. The following question is then addressed: why was Arabic physical science reformist, rather than revolutionary, unlike Renaissance European physical science? An answer is proposed in terms of the history, nature and decline of Arabic rationalism.
Constructing Knowledge Generation Space. 
Poverty is a complex issue that is rarely conducive to analysis in laboratory or field experiments. Effective interventions that aim to decrease or eliminate poverty require an understanding of the intricate web of associated social issues. The need for this increased comprehension necessitates the use of alternative robust means of analysis: one such being agent-based modelling. The strengths of agent-based modelling to disaggregate complex social behaviours and understand them are well known. However, while people have explored how the modelling process can prove to be fruitful, the usually unintended insight gained and the knowledge engendered during the model design process goes largely unnoticed. In this paper, we aspire to show precisely how the model building process is critical in leading to unintended knowledge generation for modellers by drawing from three US based examples where agent-based modelling was used to aid research into the effects of interventions that address poverty and human development through programs and issues facing low-income families. With these examples, we illustrate some of the means to harness new knowledge generated. In our discussion, we also highlight the advantageous nature of agent-based model design as an independent source of knowledge generation. Classification-ACM-1998: I.6.5 Model Development
Graph of systems that evolve and adapt.  
Comparison of Complex Adaptive System (CAS) features with shipping.
Overview of the main features of the GCSN as proposed Kaluza et al. [7] and Ducruet and Notteboom [5].
If we consider the worldwide maritime shipping industry as a system, we observe that a large number of independent rational agents such as port authorities, shipping service providers, shipping companies, and commodity producers play a role in achieving predominant positions and in increasing market share. The maritime shipping industry can, from this perspective, be defined as a Complex System composed of relatively independent parts that constantly search, learn and adapt to their environment, while their mutual interactions shape obscure but recognizable patterns. In this work we examine the maritime shipping industry through the Complex Adaptive System (CAS). Although CAS has been applied widely to the study of biological and social systems, its application in maritime shipping is scant. Therefore, our objective in the present paper is to provide a literature review that examines the international maritime industry through the lens of CAS. We also present some of the goals that may be achieved by applying the CAS approach to the container shipping industry in particular. The construction of a tenable ontological framework will give scholars a comprehensive view of the maritime industry and allow them to test the stability and efficiency of the framework to endogenous and exogenous shocks.
Components of the business intelligence model (modification from [24; p.26]).
Adaptive part of the ABIS [26; p.44]. 
The features of complexity are ever more present in modern organizations and in environments in which they operate, trying to survive and be as competitive as possible.) In the processes of, the so-called emergence, the formal organizational structure, designed purposefully and with a plan, is going through a change due to complexity and the need for adaptation. As a result, there is a variety of new informal groups. At the same time, the intended structural changes and business process changes occur because of the perception that the leadership and senior organizational management have of the strategic situation. Managers in modern organizations often use business intelligence (BI) systems when making important business decisions. These systems offer support to the decision-making by gathering and processing relevant data and information about the company performance, but also about the data on conditions in close and remote environment. A modern company is characterized by the complex adaptive system, but the environment in which it operates together with other business subjects (agents) is also complex. Consequently, the requirements for appropriate or optimal decisions and successfully completed activities are hard to meet. Given that expected future events and circumstances often occur in nonlinear mechanisms, the decisions made by following the models of traditional predicting and planning are not satisfactory. This calls for new approaches to decision making and acting.
Croatian coastal regions (according to uploads/2010/12/Geografski-aspekti-upravljanja-obalnim-područjima.doc, p. 5, modifed by the author).  
The modern society requires a rational, professional, stable and socially accountable public administration that serves its citizens. Analysis of the status and functioning of the Croatian public administration shows that there are still many shortcomings and problems that must be solved. This paper outlines the basic characteristics of public administration as a set of structures and processes aiming to start and implement the policies in accordance with the public interest. Also, it explores the way and the level of success of managing the common good, with special attention given to the management of the coastal area, whereas the management of the coastal area is defined as an activity comprising different levels of management - local, regional, national and international. The author stresses the need to coordinate the different levels and emphasize the importance of organizing the work process and the capabilities of the managing structure. This is necessary because the public administration often makes decisions directly influencing the citizens' quality of life on a local and individual level. Given that the public administration has a great amount of power in all countries, it must be controlled. The author states that beside self control of public administration it is also needed to conduct the additional control. That kind of control is necessary due to the inestimable value of Croatia's coastal and other resources. Based on the results of the research the author suggests measures to improve a continued and efficient control.
The research into the effectiveness of financial aid is gaining momentum lately. Some say it is ineffective, some say it could be effective, but all seem to agree that some of its aspects are currently unmapped. This article aims at showing a rather simplistic agent-based model that might hint at a possible useful approach of the issue. It will be shown, that the donor policies do influence stability, convergence and the path of economic growth.
Emergence of chaotic behaviour.  
Axiomatic foundation of non-equilibrium microeconomics is outlined. The economic activity is modelled as transformation and transport of commodities (materials) owned by the agents. Rate of transformations (production intensity), and the rate of transport (trade) are defined by the agents. Economic decision rules are derived from the observed economic behaviour. The non-linear equations are solved numerically for the Neumannian economy. The emergence of the equilibrium market structure appears as an order out of chaos process.
The paper provides an introduction to agent-based modelling and simulation of social processes. Reader is introduced to the worldview underlying agent-based models, some basic terminology, basic properties of agent-based models, as well as to what one can and what cannot expect from such models, particularly when they are applied to social-scientific investigation. Special attention is given to the issues of validation. Classification-ACM-1998: J.4 [Computer Applications]; Social and behavioral sciences - Sociology
The emergence of cooperation in a model for an artificial farming society is studied here by the use of an agent-based model. The system is composed of an ensemble of N agents assumed to have equal access to water, whose availability fluctuates randomly in time. Each agent makes two decisions every sowing season regarding: (1) the type of crop mix to plant and (2) whether s/he joins, or not, a cooperative group that allocates water amongst farmers to maximize the production and share revenues equally. Results show that the degree to which farmers choose to cooperate has a strong dependency on the mean water availability. Cooperation seems to emerge as a way of adaptation to uncertain environments by which individual risk is minimized.
The variables' values at the two equilibrium points, H 1 and H 2 .
The effects as the population rises. r ∆ i N ∆ a N ∆ a L ∆ a l ∆ i l ∆
The effects as the industrial sector's total productivity rises. Values of variables are given at two equilibrium points,
This paper examines issues related to urbanization with labour migration. The main departures from the traditional approaches to dynamics of economic structures are that the paper uses an alternative approach to consumer behaviour and introduces human capital accumulation via learning by doing. The model describes dynamic interactions among agricultural and industrial production, rural and urban amenities, distribution of production factors and preferences with endogenous capital and human capital accumulation. We show that the dynamic system may have either a single or multiple equilibrium points, depending upon returns to scale in the two sectors. We also examined effects of changes in some parameters.
Physical conditions for spontaneous growth and development of complex structures are discussed: using the concept of {free energy (thermodynamic negentropy)} -> {structural information (Shanonnian) negentropy} transformation. The phenomena of structure ageing and decay are analysed. Degree of complexity of a structure, direction of its evolution is related to the number of elementary configurations (of constructing of its elements) that could be used to construct its identity. Practical conclusions which are drawn refer to the proposition of the optimum architectural design and city planning. As a criterion in this optimisation the best conditions for human well being, development and assuring the best conditions for flourishing of their creativity. Important for non mathematical scientists: presentation is written in simple language using only simple mathematical formulas. It is illustrated by examples in house construction.
During the last decade, the advance of Internet has enabled the emergence of previously nonexistent type of human social structures - virtual 'online' communities. As compared to the traditional communities, online communities are distinguished by the drastic reduction of the requirement for the physical proximity and geographical clustering of their members. The primary cause of this shift away from 'physically concentrated' communities to dispersed virtual ones is new long distance communication tools that Internet has provided. Along with the increase in quantity of communication that the new technology brought about, it also strongly influenced its quality. The paper suggests two simple mathematical tools for analysing the 'soft' (qualitative) sociological internal properties of virtual communities. The suggested tools are applied and their utility discussed on the example of one such virtual community, Croatian NGO 'Society'. Classification-ACM-1998: J.4; Social and behavioral sciences - Sociology
This paper presents an agent based model of the evolution of cooperation in a complex environment. Anthropoid agents reproduce sexually, and live in a world where food is irregularly distributed in space and seasonally produced. They can share food, form hunting and migrating groups, and are able to build alliances to dispute territory. The agents memorize their interactions with others and their actions are mainly guided by emotions, modelled as propensities to react in specific ways to other agents' actions and environmental conditions. The results revealed that sexual reproduction is extremely relevant: in the proposed model cooperation was stronger between agents of opposite sex.
I argue that European schools of thought on memory and memorization were critical in enabling the growth of the scientific method. After giving a historical overview of the development of the memory arts from ancient Greece through 17th century Europe, I describe how the Baconian viewpoint on the scientific method was fundamentally part of a culture and a broader dialogue that conceived of memorization as a foundational methodology for structuring knowledge and for developing symbolic means for representing scientific concepts. The principal figures of this intense and rapidly evolving intellectual milieu included some of the leading thinkers traditionally associated with the scientific revolution; among others, Francis Bacon, Renes Descartes, and Gottfried Leibniz. I close by examining the acceleration of mathematical thought in light of the art of memory and its role in 17th century philosophy, and in particular, Leibniz' project to develop a universal calculus.
Structural coupling [12] (reproduced with friendly permission of T. Quick). 
Autopoietic theory which represents a framework for describing complex non-linear and especially living systems is described in a context of biometric characteristics. It is argued that any living system by performing an internal process of reproducing its structural components yields physical biometric characteristics. Likewise any living system when structurally coupling to another (eventually allopoietic) system yields a behavioral or psychological characteristic of the living system. It is shown that any system that can be considered as autopoietic can potentially be measured, authenticated and/or identified using adequate biometric methods, and thus biometrics is applicable to any autopoietic system: living beings, groups of living beings, social systems, organizations as well as information systems. In the end implications of such a conceptualization are discussed as well as possible applications.
Regarding the widespread confusion about the concept and nature of complexity, information and biological organization, we look for some coordinated conceptual considerations corresponding to quantitative measures suitable to grasp the main characteristics of biological complexity. Quantitative measures of algorithmic complexity of supercomputers like Blue Gene/L are compared with the complexity of the brain. We show that both the computer and the brain have a more fundamental, dynamic complexity measure corresponding to the number of operations per second. Recent insights suggest that the origin of complexity may go back to simplicity at a deeper level, corresponding to algorithmic complexity. We point out that for physical systems Ashby's Law, Kahre's Law and causal closure of the physical exclude the generation of information, and since genetic information corresponds to instructions, we are faced with a controversy telling that the algorithmic complexity of physics is much lower than the instructions' complexity of the human DNA: I_algorithmic(physics) ~ 10^3 bit << I_instructions(DNA) ~ 10^9 bit. Analyzing the genetic complexity we obtain that actually the genetic information corresponds to a deeper than algorithmic level of complexity, putting an even greater emphasis to the information paradox. We show that the resolution of the fundamental information paradox may lie either in the chemical evolution of inheritance in abiogenesis, or in the existence of an autonomous biological principle allowing the production of information beyond physics.
The amoeba organization of Kyocera Corporation [9]. 
Outline of biomimetic concepts in organizations.
The fishnet organization.
The fractal principle.
Biomimetics, the art and science of imitating nature and life for technological solutions is discussed from a modern organization theory perspective. The main hypothesis of this article is that there are common laws in nature that are applicable to living, social and likewise organizational systems. To take advantage of these laws, the study of nature's principles for their application to organizations is proposed - a process which is in product and technology design known as bionic creativity engineering. In a search for most interesting concepts borrowed from nature we found amoeba organizations, the theory of autopoiesis or self-creation, neural networks, heterarchies, as well as fractals and bioteaming which are described and reviewed. Additionally other concepts like swarm intelligence, stigmergy, as well as genesis and reproduction, are introduced. In the end all these ideas are summarized and guidelines for further research are given.
Orbitofrontal cortex.  
Cingulate gyrus.  
The article reflects the fact, that concepts like decision making and free will have entered the field of cognitive neuroscience towards the end of 20th century. It gives an overview of brain structures involved in decision making and the concept of free will; and presenting the results of clinical observations and new methods (functional neuroimaging, electrophysiology) it postulates possible mechanisms of these processes. We give a review of the neuroanatomy, specially discussing those parts of the brain important to the present topic, because the process of decision making is dependent on deep subcortical as well as superficial cortical structures. Dopamine has a central role in the in process of reward related behaviour and hedonism. A list of brain structures, related to dopamine action, is also given. The article especially concentrates on the Single Photon Emission Computer Tomography studies in patients with Parkinson's disease (neuroimaging), as well as to the studies concerning the Readiness Potential and Endogeneous Potential P300 (electrophysiology). In the end, we discuss the volition, whose functional anatomy overlaps with the functional anatomy of free will and decision making processes.
There are a lot of systems, which behave complexly, around us. We cannot predict their behaviour. Unpredictability is almost a character of complexity but how can we tackle the phenomenon of it. The formal mathematical descriptions of them are more and more complex and only several times solvable. Is the making a system of non-linear equations the only way to handle and descript systems like them? Using simple elements we can build models which show complex behaviour. Simple rule-systems can be a model of a complex system. For example algorithms can be appropriate for this task. We can implement these models for the language of computers, as well, and running simulations. Can we observe or perceive emergent characters? What is the measure of emergent phenomena? These are the questions to which I am searching the answers. The algorithms can give us a better way to understand the complex world.
This paper is a review from a business analyst's perspective of innovation and complexity concept and their impact upon the paths of business systems and organisations as wholes. Its task is also to catalyse a broader discussion on innovation segment that is by itself complex and its importance to business in a growing complex environment. The argument is that innovations should be the main driving force of business and other social systems due to their path-dependent and positive feedback features that provide for faster growth. Innovation is not limited solely to businesses and should also be viewed in respect to other social (public) systems whose segment often lack innovative approach. Innovation may be found to possess emergent properties like other events that appear in social systems that influence their change and adaptation. It determines path-dependency of such systems because it is considered an event arising early in the history of the system that determines its ultimate end state. Thus, understanding, managing and accepting innovations and its importance is crucial for recognition of complex processes of path-creation, dependence and emergence of forces that drive social systems. Viewed from aspect of transitional countries, it is crucial for judging the future stability of their social entities striving for development and recognised change. Classification-ACM-1998: J.4; Social and behavioral sciences - Sociology
The structure of an open microeconomic system.  
The structure of an open microeconomic system with an intermediary.
In this paper the properties of the wealth function of an economic system are studied. An economic analog of the Gibbs-Duhem equation is derived. Equilibrium states and limiting profit extraction regimes in non-equilibrium economic systems are obtained for the Cobb-Douglas wealth function.
Response and dynamical stability of oscillators with discontinuous or steep first derivative of restoring characteristic is considered in this paper. For that purpose, a simple single-degree-of-freedom system with piecewise-linear force-displacement relationship subjected to a harmonic force excitation is analysed by the method of piecing the exact solutions (MPES) in the time domain and by the incremental harmonic balance method (IHBM) in the frequency domain. The stability of the periodic solutions obtained in the frequency domain by IHBM is estimated by the Floquet-Lyapunov theorem. Obtained frequency response characteristic is very complex and includes multi-frequency response for a single frequency excitation, jump phenomenon, multi-valued and non-periodic solutions. Determining of frequency response characteristic in the time domain by MPES is exceptionally time consuming, particularly inside the frequency ranges of co-existence of multiple stable solutions. In the frequency domain, IHBM is very efficient and very well suited for obtaining wide range frequency response characteristics, parametric studies and bifurcation analysis. On the other hand, neglecting of very small harmonic terms (which in-significantly influence the r.m.s. values of the response and are very small in comparison to other terms of the spectrum) can cause very large error in evaluation of the eigenvalues of the monodromy matrix, and so they can lead to incorrect prediction of the dynamical stability of the solution. Moreover, frequency ranges are detected inside which the procedure of evaluation of eigenvalues of the monodromy matrix does not converge with increasing the number of harmonics included in the supposed approximate solution. Classification-ACM-1998: J.2 Engineering
Collaborative work is increasing in frequency and importance in business, academia, and communities. The knowledge behind what makes for a successful collaboration is also increasing but is normally focused on only one aspect of collaboration theory. The understanding of how successful collaborations are built is greatly improved by the creation of a unified framework that organizes and transfers knowledge and practices. The framework proposed in this paper is the concept of a pattern language for collaboration. The notion of a pattern language was first detailed in 1979 by Christopher Alexander in his book, A Timeless Way of Building. A pattern language consists of a hierarchy of individual patterns that are used to solve problems associated with the parts in the pattern. When developed, researchers can use a pattern language for collaboration as a tool set to evaluate existing collaborations, repair unhealthy collaborations, and build future collaborations. The core concept is that the structure of an environment guides the pattern of events that occurs. A healthy collaboration is more likely to be responsive to the needs of its community and robust enough to overcome unanticipated challenges. The development and evolution of the pattern language is similar to a genetic process in that quality of the overall language emerges from the interaction of individual and complex patterns. The article applies the pattern language to the real world example of twenty eight different collaborations that are part of the Colorado Healthy Communities Initiative to illustrate the application of the pattern language in context. The article closes with recommendations for future development of the language. Classification-ACM-1998: J.4; Social and behavioral sciences - Sociology
The paper analyses the extent to which information technology is used in European developed and post-communist countries. Indicators such as internet usage, e-commerce and e-government are used to measure the gap between European developed and post-communist countries. Special focus is given to the analysis of the difference in the level of education of male and female inhabitants who use internet, e-commerce and e-government services in European developed and post-communist countries. The main two assumptions of this paper are: (1) usage of information technology in three important areas: internet usage, e-commerce and e-government is lower in European post-communist countries than in developed countries and (2) male users with high level of education use information technology more than female users in European developed and post-communist countries. Lower usage and lower investments in information technology and also low level of education could be significant barriers towards further economic development of European post-communist countries. Data from European Statistics Database, section Information Society Statistics, were used during research for this paper.
Graphical representation of the e-mail receiving process.  
Extracted factors.
Model of EMC based on social exchange theory. Encircled elements are targeted in this article.  
E-mail mediated communication rapidly intensifies, both in quantity and quality and so does the need to understand its psycho-social context. In this article we formulated a model of psycho-social elements of the process of receiving an e-mail. The corresponding technique starts by recognising the relevant states of a human receiver and a received e-mail. The states are parameterised, paying special attention to the description of receiver's emotional states, as the event of receiving is more localised in time than that of sending an e-mail. Possible changes are collected into a vertex, a structure expressing the probability that a received e-mail induces the receiver from initial state into a given final state. We conducted a preliminary study that included 87 e-mail messages. 97 attributes were determined for each of the considered e-mails. The analysis shows that acceptance and total receiver's change of state induced by e-mails depend on the combination of several e-mail characteristics. These are interpreted as projections of the sender's states. In this view the e-mail arises as a discrete unit with a finite spectrum of transferable qualities, mediating complex human interaction. Classification-ACM-1998: H5.3 [Information Interfaces and Presentation]: Group and Organization Interfaces - Asynchronous interaction
CRM elements priorities – evaluation of experts. 
AHP comparison of elements – Expert 1.  
Organization chart: preview of structure of a smaller OHS company with implemented CRM.  
Basic system diagram of CRM subsystem (made by SW-tool " Dijagrami sustava " ).  
Flowchart of processes in OHS companies with CRM system.  
One of the most prominent contemporary trends in formation of companies is the approach to development of a customer-oriented company. In this matter, various versions related to the intensity of this orientation are differentiated. Customer relationship management (CRM) system is a well-known concept, and its practice is being studied and improved in connection to various sectors. Companies providing services of occupational safety and health (OHS) mainly cooperate with a large number of customers and the quality of this cooperation largely affects the occupational safety and health of employees. Therefore, it is of both scientific and wider social interest to study and improve the relationship of these companies with their customers. This paper investigates the practice of applying CRM in Croatian OHS companies. It identifies the existing conditions and suggests possible improvements in the practice of CRM, based on experts' assessments using analytic hierarchy process evaluation. Universal preliminary design was created as a framework concept for the formation of a typical customer-oriented OHS services company. Preliminary design includes a structural view, which provides more details through system diagrams, and an illustration of main cooperation processes of a company with its customer.
Gyula Farkas (1847-1931) became a well-known scientist in his age due to his thermodynamic achievements, but today - after rediscovering his articles in 1950 - he is also noted as one of the founders of operation research. On the occasion of the 150th anniversary of his birth, his name became known beyond scientific circles. In this article, brief introduction into his life is given. The emphasis is put onto his achievements which provides modern context for efficient introduction of younger generations into the scientific world, and especially scientific methodology and interdisciplinary approaches.
Since before Adam Smith, economists have been concerned with development. However, they have seldom understood it or paid it enough mind. For example, the "sequence" economists, such as Marx in the 19th Century and Rostow in the 20th sought to force development everywhere into a rigid pattern. Since 1874, the marginalists and their Neoliberal descendents have emphasised comparative statics and steady-state equilibriums, not growth. Although many new ideas popped up after WW II, none proved satisfactory. These included alleged "silver bullets" such as "free" trade, foreign direct investment, import substitution, industrialization and investment in human capital, as well as varied sets of "multiple drivers", whose individual effects proved hard to sort out. Meanwhile, Neoliberal economics gradually took over the non-Marxist world. But it lost its credibility by spawning a mindless globalisation and long series of economic, human and social disasters. So today development economics is undergoing a "rebirth", with "the Barcelona Consensus", custom design, multiple objectives and sustainability among its guiding stars. By happy coincidence, a new discipline called complexity began to emerge in the mid 1980's. Out of it has come a new kind of economics which is not only congruent with current thinking about development but also provides useful advice in the design and management of development programs, including those related to poverty. Meanwhile the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico (USA) is trying a new approach to the eradication of this evil. Poor communities have been identified, organised and then made responsible for taking the lead in coordinating their own development. This coordination covers not only projects managed by the community but those sponsored by outside private- and public-sector organisations. The "jury is still out" but the odds are that this approach will provide much more civic, economic and social development for the poor than previous attempts. And a major factor improving these odds, is that this approach is the one most compatible with a vision of Puerto Rican society as a complex system.
The two types of uncertainty follow the same rule on the long-run (illustration).
The two types of uncertainty on short-run. Parameter α is a) negative, b) positive.
Regions for different time horizons ( D 1 , ..., D 5 ), and the stochastic stable region (Stoch.). 
The better the model, the more features of the problem it explains. However, showing that the model has similarities to that of a phenomena is often less significant in applications due to lack of data. Forecasting, as special application of modelling, is neither an exception: besides statistical data one should use several types of subjective assumptions about the present and the future state of the model. In case of complex models, this fact is extremely important, because these models use often unobservable, hidden or - regarding its future evolution - uncertain variables. We developed a simple mathematical approach how these uncertainties can be managed in the model. We shall also show how these uncertainties can influence the behaviour of modelled variables, and how an approximate for time horizon of forecasts can be calculated. Classification-ACM-1998: J.4; Social and behavioral sciences
Increasing interaction (in numbers, patterns and uncertain intensity) in innovation processes point at new and different methodologies of researching reality including complexity views of modern production. In post-modern era, where (informational) networks are evolving, learning can not be understood through the lens of organization, but through learning individuals. Such approach can be attained by Interaction analysis which gives typical pattern of connections among attributes describing phenomena. Interaction analysis is the first step to functional modeling as a method of multidimensional optimization for chosen criteria. Functional modeling satisfies processing approach which treats surroundings as complex, uncertain, full of changes and emergent phenomenon. Empirical analysis indicates that companies in Slovenia in the year 2003 are not characterized with category of Learning organization.
Flows' structures in a) mechanical and b) heat-driven separation systems.
Boundaries between two areas where first and second separation sequences are optimal for different K . Dashed area corresponds to optimal sequence with separation of first component first. 
Characteristic change of the transformer’s efficiency as a function of separation power and the effective heat transfer coefficient. 
In this paper the problem of finding the optimal separation sequence for a three-component mixture in a two-stage separation system is considered. Two solutions are obtained. The first minimizes the energy used, subject to a given flow rate of the input mixture, by selecting optimal separation sequence and by distributing the contact surfaces between the first and second stages optimally. It is also shown that the input flow rate of a heat-driven two-stage separation system is bounded and that this bound (the maximal possible rate of heat-driven separation) depends on the separation sequence used. The closed-form expression for this dependence is obtained.
The beginning of fuga BWV 847 with three motifs designated.
During the performance of a musical composition a special human environment comes into being. We aim to interpret the compositions as a specific class of human environment in order to utilise that for description of structure and dynamics of general human environment. In particular, we analysed four Bach's fugas considering their motifs and introducing the concept of the energy of a motif. We used bosonic excitations from theoretical physics as an analogical starting point for this concept, with the aim of proposing a new way to shed light onto more complex human environments. The aim is neither to reduce music to physical theories nor to define new theories of music, but to approach the investigation of complex environments in a new way, using already existing concepts.
The key condition for the realization of successful product’s development and technological excellence is creation of a simple access to transition from the domain of designing to the domain of product’s manufacturing. Nowadays, there are a lot of possibilities for this condition to be fulfilled and they depend on the level of organizational contemporariness which has to possess tools and skills in order to fulfill the demands of a superb production.
Disciplines addressing methodological and operational aspects of decision making.
Multi-criteria evaluation of job offers using Kepner-Tregoe method.
What-if analysis of job offers. Changed values are underlined.
We address the phenomenon of decision making from the viewpoint of computer science and information technology. The basic question from this viewpoint is: what can the computer offer to decision makers and how it can support their work? Therefore, the main issue is to provide support to people who make complex decisions. In this article, we first present the taxonomy of disciplines that are concerned with methodological and operational aspects of decision support. At the main level, we distinguish between decision sciences, which are concerned with human decision making, and decision systems, which address computer decision making. This is followed by basic definitions related to decision processes and their components. We also describe properties that characterise different classes of decision problems. In the main part of the article, we present three prevailing approaches to decision support and give illustrative examples of their application: decision analysis, operational research, and decision support systems. Finally, we make a short overview of the area of decision systems and its achievements.
It is argued that the concept of free will, like the concept of truth in formal languages, requires a separation between an object level and a meta-level for being consistently defined. The Jamesian two-stage model, which deconstructs free will into the causally open "free" stage with its closure in the "will" stage, is implicitly a move in this direction. However, to avoid the dilemma of determinism, free will additionally requires an infinite regress of causal meta-stages, making free choice a hypertask. We use this model to define free will of the rationalist-compatibilist type. This is shown to provide a natural three-way distinction between quantum indeterminism, freedom and free will, applicable respectively to artificial intelligence (AI), animal agents and human agents. We propose that the causal hierarchy in our model corresponds to a hierarchy of Turing uncomputability. Possible neurobiological and behavioral tests to demonstrate free will experimentally are suggested. Ramifications of the model for physics, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, neuropathological medicine and moral philosophy are briefly outlined.
One of the basic questions of solar research is the nature of the Sun. We show here how the plasma nature of the Sun leads to the self-generation of solar activity. The release of magnetic, rotational, gravitational, nuclear energies and that of the gravity mode oscillations deviate from uniformity and spherical symmetry. Through instabilities they lead to the emergence of sporadic and localized regions like flux tubes, electric filaments, magnetic elements and high temperature regions. A systematic approach exploring the solar collective degrees of freedom, extending to ordering phenomena of the magnetic features related to Higgs fields, is presented. Handling solar activity as transformations of energies from one form to another one presents a picture on the network of the energy levels of the Sun, showing that the Sun is neither a mere "ball of gas" nor a "quiescent steady-state fusion-reactor machine", but a complex self-organizing system. Since complex self-organizing systems are similar to living systems (and, by some opinion, identical with them), we also consider what arguments indicate the living nature of the Sun. Thermodynamic characteristics of the inequilibrium Sun are found important in this respect and numerical estimations of free energy rate densities and specific exergies are derived.
The Clausian introduction of entropy is based on an unnecessary restriction, namely that diminishing circle integral leads to a unique state variable. Eliminating that restriction a family of entropy-like function is introduced. After we have chosen one, called extropy, which has better properties as the well known entropy.
Categorization of abovementioned datasets.
This paper provides an overview of important projects concerned with the development of databases on conflicts, crises and similar political events and those dealing with the structural characteristics of nation-states. The various databases are usually differently conceptualized, even when they describe the same phenomenon. Different conceptualization of the problem leads to distinct operational definitions, and eventually to divergent coding rules. Therefore, the researcher intending to use the existing data for statistical analysis or modelling social processes can become lost browsing the multitude of diverse datasets. In this overview, the short descriptions of important data-gathering projects include information on the institutions where the projects are placed, their principal investigators, time span and number of cases they include. Finally, all databases are classified according to their focus (event/structure) and their level (nation-state/international relations) of observation. Classification-ACM-1998: H.0 [Information Interfaces and Presentation]
We explore the dynamical properties of the Godley-Lavoie model with a focus on Central Bank horizons. The stability properties of modes of regulation are traced from a regime of private bank money to the current crisis with the Central Bank levers of short-term bonds issue to the emerging policy regime of long-term bonds as built-in stabilizers.
This paper proposes a dynamic economic model with wealth accumulation and human capital accumulation. The economic system consists of one production sector and one education sector. We take account of three ways of improving human capital: learning by producing, learning by education, and learning by consuming. The model describes a dynamic interdependence between wealth accumulation, human capital accumulation, and division of labor under perfect competition. We simulate the model to demonstrate existence of equilibrium points and motion of the dynamic system. We also examine effects of changes in the propensity to receive education, efficiency of learning, and efficiency of education upon dynamic paths of the system.
In this article, we build a self consistent mean field deterministic model for the muscular contraction. The two main variables are the number of free myosin heads and the number of myosin heads attached to the actin, just after attachment. The model is natural in the sense that it respects the physico-chemical natural constraints. We calculate the stationary state, prove that it is stable and calculate the efficiency.
Ratio dened as reserach output of University of Zagreb vs. the rest of the Croatian universities varies from 8:1 to 3:1, with crossover after 1997. We show linear-log plot. 
Scientific output of first neighbours. 
Log-log plot of total number of papers versus GDP calculated for European countries in 2004. 
Scientific output of the University of Zagreb compared with two Hungarian, two Slovenian, one Italian and one Serbian university. Data for 2006 collected till 1 September.
We compared the Croatian research output with the neighboring countries and the Croatian universities with the largest Slovenian, Hungarian, and Serbian universities. As far as papers listed by Social Science Citation Index are concerned, since 2000 the University of Zagreb exhibits best results in social sciences compared to the competing universities, that is not the case in “hard” sciences. For the last 12 years, only the University of Ljubljana has shown better results in total research output than the University of Zagreb. The difference in research output between the University of Zagreb and the rest of the Croatian universities has been constantly decreasing. As a case study we compare research output at Faculty of Civil Engeenering on different Croatian universities. By analyzing European countries, we show a functional dependence between the gross domestic product (GDP) and the research output. From this fit we conclude that the Croatian science exhibits research output as expected for the given level of GDP.
The aim of this article is to defend the thesis that analysis of time meaning within history and philosophy of natural sciences and philosophical anthropology allows making clear the basis of human being. It's opened the opportunity of constructing special model of general understanding of time as a creation of nature or as a creation of human. Two main methods are used: comparative analysis and hermeneutics. Article presents the discussion of following results. Orientation on discretization and virtual nature of cultural interaction, or orientation on mutual tension of limits of cultural and historical process allows connecting philosophy of natural sciences and philosophical anthropology with system of physical categories: energy, weight, distance, etc. It finds an application as in the physical and mathematical sphere so in the field of humanistic studies. The general conclusion made is that neither nature nor human solely creates the time. Time is an imaginary phenomenon connecting human activity and natural processes in the limits of human consciousness.
A visualization method is proposed for understanding the structure of complex networks based on an extended Curvelet transform named Dyadic Curvelet Transform (DClet). The proposed visualization method comes to answer specific questions about structures of complex networks by mapping data into orthogonal localized events with a directional component via the Cartesian sampling sets of detail coefficients. It behaves in the same matter as human visual system, seeing in terms of segments and distinguishing them by scale and orientation. Compressing the network is another fact. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated by two different networks with structural properties of small world networks with N = 16 vertices, and a globally coupled network with size N = 1024 and 523 776 edges. As the most large scale real networks are not fully connected, it is tested on the telecommunication network of Iran as a real extremely complex network with 92 intercity switching vertices, 706 350 E1 traffic channels and 315 525 transmission channels. It is shown that the proposed method performs as a simulation tool for successfully design of network and establishing the necessary group sizes. It can clue the network designer in on all structural properties that network has.
The study of empires' development has prided itself on great traditions in historical sciences. However, understanding the development courses meets difficulties if the geographical environment is disregarded. In my opinion, with the help of studying the geographical environment and also Krugman's economic geographical theory, a more complex understanding of empires' history can be obtained.
Hypothetical value function as proposed by Kahneman and Tversky prospect 
Klein’s [4] model of recognition primed decision-making . 
Almost by definition decision-making is typical human activity, and therefore important psychological subject. The starting point of its classical conception within psychology could be traced back to economy and mathematic, with ideas of human as rational economic being, and conceptualising decision making as choice between two or more alternatives, and as such being a separate event in space and time. Already in fifties Herbert Simon challenged such a view with his concept of bounded rationality, emerging from the joint effect of internal limitations of the human mind, and the structure of external environments in which the mind operates. During the last decades with the shift to the real word situations where decisions are embedded in larger tasks, becoming so part of the study of action, the lost rational human appeared again as efficient creature in the complex environment. Gigerenzer showed how heuristics help in this process.
A mathematical method of decision-making in which a competitive or cooperative situation is analyzed to determine the optimal course of action for an interested "player" is often called game theory. Game theory has very broad application in different sciences. Team sports tactical performance is considered from the aspects of data processing theory and the phenomenon of selective attention, as well as from the game theory. Team sports tactical performance is an asymmetric, sequential (of imperfect information), non-zero-sum game. In decision making, predictability in team sports is in fact bargaining, and the player has to use a mixed strategy for choosing option with highest expected utility. Player could choose a trembling hand equilibrium, to eliminate imperfect equilibrium. Strategic dominance conceipt can explain that a player could choose strategy which dominates between other possible strategies, and/or could be led by "team reasoning", too. In this article, the level of predictability of the most frequent tactical performance of one player in a team sport game is considered, reflecting outcomes both for the same team’s tactical performance (co-players in one player’s team), as well as for the opponent team’s tactical performance. Four different possible situations during team sport competition could lead to considering utilities of one player’s specific decisions.
Decision making is traditionally viewed as a rational process where reason calculates the best way to achieve the goal. Investigations from different areas of cognitive science have shown that human decisions and actions are much more influenced by intuition and emotional responses then it was previously thought. In this paper I examine the role of emotion in decision making, particularly Damasio's hypothesis of somatic markers and Green's dual process theory of moral judgment. I conclude the paper with the discussion of the threat that deliberation and conscious rationality is an illusion.
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Girma Gezimu Gebre
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Zoltan Rajnai
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Gyula Mester
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Simone Caschili
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