Futures

Published by Elsevier
Online ISSN: 0016-3287
Publications
Article
A stimulated early public debate is frequently advocated when introducing an emerging technology like synthetic biology (SB). To debate a still quite abstract technology, participants functionally need a frame that determines which arguments are legitimate and which issues are relevant. Often, such frames are based on previous debates over other novel technologies. Three technologies currently provide frames for discussing SB: (green) biotechnology, nanotechnology and information technology. In the biotechnology debate, risk has long been emphasised over economic benefits. More recently, nanotechnology has been referred to mostly in terms of benefits, while risks tended to be an issue for scientific discourses. This has frequently been related to the many outreach activities around nanotechnology. Information technology, finally, has retained the image of being 'cool' and useful on a personal level. The technology itself is taken for granted and only the consequences of particular applications have been up for discussion. Upstream engagement exercises in SB will have to consider the comparator chosen more diligently, because it might influence the debate on SB 'out there' in the long run.
 
Article
This paper examines some proposals concerning the involvement of genetic counsellors in reproductive decisionmaking. This involvement represents the future situation as being shaped decisively by the "relevant" knowledge of powerful medical and other political interests. The paper deconstructs and reorders this proposed knowledge in order to make it problematic. The projected involvement of genetic counselling backed by claims of ethical expertise is rendered denaturalised and particular, opening a conceptual space for the emergence of other futures. An alternative future in which public communication, not private medical decisions, is given as the primary ethical focus.
 
Article
It is argued that the genetic engineering revolution now under way is fundamentally different from other industrial revolutions in that humans are developing the technological power to change themselves. This article begins with an overview of the technology involved, discusses the Human Genome Initiative (HGI) programme and gene therapy research, and then uses several possible future scenarios to discuss potential legal and ethical issues.
 
Article
This article continues the swift advance through space and time. It goes from the calamitous end of the Roman Empire to the extraordinary expansion of the European world overseas that began with the Portuguese and the Spaniards. I.F. Clarke notes that the 19th century writer, Thomas Carlyle, was one of the first of the modern future-thinkers; and in his examination of the then new industrial society he put forward his conviction that the future is what exceptional human beings make of the possible. I. F. Clarke tests this doctrine of Great Men and their actions by selecting three very different personalities—a saint, a royal prince, and the greatest of navigators. He looks at their achievements in the light of Carlyle's dictum that the future ‘is not dissevered from the Past, but based continuously on it’. In consequence, says Carlyle, all human beings are called to play their part in writing ‘the Future Epic of the World’.
 
Article
The future of work is a constant topic of discussion. This article approaches it with the deceptively simple notion of demand and supply: how much work is required to yield a reasonable standard of living? And how much work would people prefer to put in? Answers are given from two studies of a mature Welfare State, Sweden. The answers also point to the following underlying questions: What are the driving forces behind the present pattern of work? Is there a lagging self-understanding about needs, risks and possibilities in our type of society?
 
Article
This second article in the present series seeks to show that mankind has always listened to the call of the future. We have to; it is all we have. So, we are indebted to long-dead poets and philosophers for some of our basic ideas about time and human existence. As I.F. Clarke points out, there is a line of thinking about society and the future that runs from St Augustine to Auguste Comte. Indeed, it is but a short step from the tale of heroic resolve in the Odyssey to Churchill's broadcast to the USA in the dark days of 1941. ‘When great causes are on the move,’ he said, ‘we learn that we are spirits, not animals, and that something is going on in space and time, and beyond space and time, which, whether we like it or not, spells duty.’
 
Article
This paper presents a single thesis relating to the potential uses of structural modelling. In the first section it is argued that the development of conventional dynamic modelling techniques has shifted attention from the important task of producing a model structure which adequately represents a complex system. The paper then discusses various methods of system representation which are suitable for the analysis and improvement of model structure. Finally, a brief survey is presented of some automatic procedures which the authors have developed to provide what they believe to be an essential balance in the methodology of modelling.
 
Article
After summarising the findings of chapters 2–8, exercises which demonstrate shortcomings in the general structure of the world models are described. Alterations to the World 3 model, suggested in chapters 3–8, are tested, and comments are made on the results and on world models in general.
 
Article
This paper develops the concept of integrated 1000-year planning. The products of 1000-year planning, referred to as 1000-year plans, are intended to deal with issues on a global scale and address the survival of humanity and the protection of the earth’s environment. One thousand years is an appropriate global planning horizon because it is long enough to unmask big picture problems that appear to be invisible to today’s societies. Furthermore, this time horizon encourages the perspective that over the long-term, many problems that seem unsolvable today, and therefore receive little attention and few resources, can indeed be overcome. Topics of 1000-year plans are numerous and include: energy, land use, carbon management, oceans, biodiversity, nuclear and hazardous waste, water, human settlements, near-earth objects, and space exploration. The argument is made that responsibilities for action by current generations to benefit future generations be based on risk assessments and risk thresholds. In the near-term, 1000-year planning must be driven by an international grassroots coalition of scientists, policy analysts, environmentalists, planners, and concerned citizens.
 
Article
In cooperation with The Foundation For the Future, The Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University has collected and rated factors that may influence the long-term (1000 years) future of humanity via the “Millennium 3000 Panel” of 100 advanced thinkers around the world. Their judgements have been organized into six first draft scenario sketches, of which three are presented in this paper.
 
Article
Forecasts of future trends in population are as central to the contemporary pessimism about the future as they were to that of certain classical economists at the beginning of the 19th century. Here earlier forecasts are examined to see how the methodology has changed and if past performance justifies the placing of much confidence in contemporary forecasts. The emphasis is upon British and American experience and upon total population sizes (rather than age or sex breakdowns). A concluding section raises the question of today's world population situation and the context of The Limits to Growth population considerations.
 
Article
A gigantic urban revolution is under way today: in 40 years, the equivalent of 1000 cities, each of three million inhabitants, will have to be built. In 2005, half of the world's population will live in cities. This growth will be concentrated in major cities, most of them in the South. This article reviews some fundamental trends, challenges and possible solutions in environment-related fields such as water, transports, energy. It argues for the emergence of a new urban culture based on the adoption of sustainable urban consumption patterns, new urban partnerships and the strengthening of urban solidarities. It gives examples of practical solutions within our reach for humanizing cities in the 21st century.
 
Article
H. G. Wells combined an unusual gift for creative vision with the logical mind of a scientist. Facts and fantasy used to discern the probable direction of human development in the context of the whole world and beyond made the Wellsian vision of the future a major factor in making men think about the need to prepare for the changes that lay ahead.
 
Article
The Institute for the Future recently completed a Delphi study that considered prospective developments in physical and biological technologies.1 Because many of the forecasts were made for events and developments that were considered in a study five years earlier,2 a comparison of the two studies provides an opportunity to observe the effect of the passage of time on forecasts. Such a review also makes it possible to develop some data on the consistency and performance of different panels.
 
Article
This article is based on a personal account on the early history of the WFSF. The author emphasizes that this organization was in many ways more a social movement than a professional organization, since it functioned as a critique of the emerging future think tanks, which were so closely linked to established powers. Moreover, from its beginning, the Federation attempted to be a real global organization and not only an affair of the so called developed world. It succeeded in having conferences in all continents.In that early period the Federation had given explicit support to individuals and institutions in the communist countries of Central/Eastern Europe, where future research institutions were to some extent ‘havens in a heartless world’. The Federation has also promoted international courses in future studies for graduate students, especially in Dubrovnik. Many of the participants later on became active (board) members of the WFSF. Finally, in those days the Federation promoted a number of research projects on the study of the future, producing an impressive number of books and journals. In short, the WFSF is a club to be proud of.
 
Article
This article considers the development of Soviet Social forecasting in the 1976–1980 period, and begins an updating of Dr Bestuzhev-Lada's report on futures research in the USSR, published in the April 1976 issue of Futures. Particularly significant is the development in the methodological bases of Soviet forecasting activities.
 
Article
The method used expert opinions (collected through interviews), scenario generation, and a simple econometric model. Some methodological innovations are reported; eg aids to assist experts in thinking ahead, and in how scenarios are generated and aggregated.
 
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Subjective information, collected in this case by a modified Delphi method, can reduce uncertainty and clarify priorities for decision makers. Although Australian health care is likely to face increasing costs and a restriction of some services, a more flexible system will emerge—with community-based care, continuing professional education, and greater use of paramedical staff.
 
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This outline of forecasting takes a very broad view—covering many of the diverse approaches now available—so that attention can be paid to the role of forecasting in discovering and analysing alternatives, as well as to its established role in prediction. The philosophy of forecasting and the differing methodological approaches are discussed, highlighting particularly the problem of continuity and discontinuity in change, and the concepts of the cultural barrier and the paradigm shift. The author, applying the idea of discontinuity in social change (the paradigm shift), examines some possibilities for the 1980s. He argues that in the field of social forecasting, which is now becoming an important element in all other types of forecasting, the forecaster's capability to foresee broad changes in values is crucial, since such changes will themselves lead to further developments throughout society. Forecasting is now reaching the stage where its methods and philosophy allow us to assess potential hazards, and to preset, rather than react, to them.
 
Article
This article explores the general public's preference for certain economic, social and technological developments in the near future. Our data are provided by interviews with national sample surveys of the adult population in the USA, Canada and Mexico which were conducted in the 1980s and 1990s. Employing factor analysis, we find that there are two basic sets of alternatives in the future preferences—preferences favouring or opposing materialism and post-materialism. People's alternative responses on these two dimensions yield a fourfold typology of future preferences. There are social divisions in support of the alternatives and in support of the four types of futures. The results show that social class, gender, age, educational status and nation of residence affect people's preferences for the future. This social differentation is predictable from the theories of dominant ideology and post-materialism. However, the social differentiation is not marked in terms of variance explained. Implications of the results for theories about the future are briefly discussed.
 
Article
In 1962, a futures studies group was launched in France on behalf of the Commissariat au Plan, reporting directly to the French Prime Minister. The group aimed at ‘studying, on the basis of future-shaping elements, what should be known right now about 1985 France’. This paper revisits that important and original futures studies project, which encapsulated efficiently the dominant values and beliefs of a Western country at a turning point of its political and economical history.In its first part, this note recalls the French context in 1964, the frame of mind, and methodology of the group. Then the main findings of the Group 1985 are outlined, be it evolutions that inspired hope (a wealthier economy, improved living conditions), and also fears attached to the future (individual may face new dependencies and higher pressures, while some shortages could appear), which should be averted thanks to active policies in the fields of education, European unity, scientific research, or public administration reform. Last, this paper analyses both the strengths and weaknesses of the Group 1985 report, drawing lessons that remain valuable for contemporary studies on the future of a whole country.In 1962, Pierre Massé, then Commissaire au Plan, set up a futures study Group chaired by Pierre Guillaumat. The Group published in 1964 a report entitled ‘Reflections on 1985’ which was a stimulating futures studies work. ALEPH thought fruitful to revisit this document.
 
Article
The economic model presented here was designed to explore and simulate trade between (in this version) 62 countries or regions. The main structural elements and equations are described, and some results concerning national GDP growth and inter-regional trade levels are given.
 
Article
It seems that after a ‘golden decade’ in the 1970s and a period of decay in the 1980s, global modelling is making a comeback. In particular, the report Scanning the Future seems to mark the beginning of a new era in this respect. In this article this ‘new wave’ of the 1990s is compared with the ‘old wave’ of the 1970s. Although there is progress in the scientific realm, these new models lack a deep concern for the burning problems of our time like the poverty gap between the North and the South and the ‘ecological problematique’. In many ways these new models reflect the new mood of the times, which lacks any vision of a new paradigm and which is strongly ‘northern-centric’.
 
Article
Recently the idea of a social dimension of Europe has been much emphasized. Is this to be seen as a move towards a European welfare regime, or is it nothing more than an adjunct to achieving a common market? In order to answer this question, a typology distinguishing three types of social policy measures is introduced: (1) social measures securing the course of the economy; (2) social measures changing the course of the economy; and (3) social rights. The typology is first applied to an analysis of the genesis of social policies within the EC so far. Each of the three types of social measure at the European level are then assessed, and developments which might trigger the need for future social measures are analysed. Finally, their chances for establishment at the European level are explored.
 
Article
As Australia looks towards the 21st century it needs to achieve two major shifts. One is a shift away from Europe and towards the growing economies of the Pacific Rim. It is here that Australia's economic future lies. The other is an internal restructuring of the economy and of business activity. Key issues include the pressing need for leadership and vision, the management of information and human resources, effective communications and organizational restructuring.
 
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This article examines how well the developing countries fared at the end of the 1980s; identifies contemporary constraints on growth and development in developing formations; and makes projections on the future of Third World economies in view of the developments discussed.
 
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This article examines the development of the European single market in the light of European information and communications technologies (ICT) industries. A case is developed for a technology policy which promotes European collaboration as a major element in the development of Europe's ICT sector. A case study of a European ESPRIT programme in parallel computing provides evidence of the need for stimulating both collaboration and competition in future strategic policies for European ICT development.
 
Article
This paper provides an overview of the WFSF during its ‘Finnish’ period of 1993–1997. During this time the WFSF organized and co-organized many conferences, symposiums, courses, summer schools, etc. In 1993, the XIII World Conference of WFSF was held in Turku, Finland; in 1995 the XIV World Conference was in Nairobi, Kenya; and in 1997, the XV World Conference was in Brisbane, Australia. These and many other events are outlined. Much is left unwritten, however, because there were and are many other activities inspired by the WFSF and its members. The information collected here is mainly derived from the WFSF Biannual Report 1995–1997, World Conference Selections and WFSF Newsletters and Bulletins.
 
Article
Publicly funded institutions of higher education came into existence at a certain time in history. Has that time come and gone? Are brick and mortar universities being replaced—or at least marginalized—by virtual universities? If so, what is gained, and what is lost, and which side should you be on?
 
Article
Like death, the West has become ubiquitous. But will hegemony continue and are there any signals of possible transformation from within and without? Four alternatives for the West are developed. (1) A dramatic ageing population leading to a future where immigrants are required for survival, however, once in the holy land of Disney, multiculturalism may make porous the West itself. (2) Genocide against the Other, resisting internal transformative processes and (3) the Artificial Society, wherein diversity and the Other are pushed back since high productivity can be achieved through the new information and genetic technologies, that is, through reductionist science and linear economic progress. While the latter technocratic scenario is most likely, there are possibilities that a more multicultural, gaian, communicative, globalist future may emerge.
 
Article
The futures exercise described in this article, conducted under the auspices of the French government's Commissariat Général du Plan (CGP), was the Horizon 2000 project. Two key questions analysed were: should the French be afraid of the turn of the century; and what will it mean to be French in the year 2000? Following a panoramic view of some key issues for France—globalization of the economy, ageing of the population, immigration, language and culture—results of the Horizon 2000 study are summarized.
 
Article
The results of the first phase of Plan Europe 2000's urbanisation project are being published early this year. They appear in the form of ten prospective studies and three articles by surveyors of these studies and are published under the title Fears and. Hopes for European Urbanisation1. This project is part of the European Cultural Foundation's ambitious five-year programme—the other projects of which relate to education, to man and industry and to farming. Here, the director of the project indicates what he deems most significant in the ten original studies.
 
Article
WORLD 2000 is a project of the World Future Society that is intended to define the emerging global system and to help shape its formation. The project accomplishes these goals by conducting an international planning dialogue that brings together the rich diversity of views from all sectors of society to form a global consensus on how the world may realize a commonly shared vision of the future—it could be thought of as ‘strategic planning for the planet’. This article describes the WORLD 2000 Project, presents preliminary results in the form of a tentative global strategic plan, and invites participation by all those interested in the future of the planet.
 
Article
The Policy Studies Institute (PSI), a UK independent policy research institute, has recently completed a project on the future of the UK over the two decades to 2010. It seeks to identify the ‘most probable’ developments, but also highlights the importance of policy choices and explores briefly three scenarios based on hypothetical policy alternatives. It looks at the UK's future in the context of recent international changes such as the ending of the Cold War, the threat of global warming and the moves towards closer union in Europe. In the UK itself it examines the implications of changes in population and employment, analyses environmental problems, assesses the impact of developments in science and technology and weighs up the evidence on likely future economic growth. Finally, it looks at the social changes to be expected in the light of these developments.
 
Article
Contemporary policing and the control of organized crime increasingly involve priority setting and planning. Criminal policymakers no longer focus on repressive aspects of organized crime, but want to be informed about coming challenges and threats in order to take appropriate preventive action. For that reason, there is a growing demand to change the traditional assessments of organized crime into analyses that include more prospective elements about current and potential future organized crime situations to identify specific risks or threats to society. Given the high degree of uncertainty that characterizes our understanding of organized crime, we suggest that scenario thinking can contribute to the strategic planning process of public and private security actors. We intend to advance this claim by means of an application of this technique to the organized crime involvement in criminal markets in Europe.
 
Article
Parenting defines and cultivates gender roles for men and women, from both biological and cultural angles. From scanning the latest trends, issues, and social pulses on parenting, families and the gender roles encapsulated, it is evident that changes are taking place: dual-income families, a health insurance crisis, family–work conflicts, bioengineering, same-sex marriage, and increasing health concerns — just some of the issues — are changing in the US, while families and gender roles are being shaped and reshaped in the process. In this article, four alternative future scenarios generate implications that challenge mainstream assumptions about the future of parenting and reveal possibilities for future male and female roles. Four scenarios (Mr. & Mrs. Right Now, Marriage Marketplace, The New Waltons for the 21st Century, and Desperate Housewives) emerged from an informal workshop held at the University of Houston, Clear Lake (UHCL) February 19, 2005.
 
Article
The issue of meat consumption has been a subject of interest that has been looked at from environmental, animal and human perspectives. This paper contributes to the discussion by clarifying the diversity of views with regard to the future of meat consumption. Two round Delphi expert interviews and a consumer survey were conducted in order to collect information. Five coherent future images were constructed: Traditional Approach, Business as Usual, Humans First, Wellness and Vegetarian Society. The discussion part of the paper presents possible ways of influencing meat consumption according to the holders of these different images of the future.
 
Article
The concept of ‘university’ has been around for centuries and yet the majority of British Universities have yet to reach their 50th birthday. The higher education sector has been through extensive change over a relatively short period of time and this is likely to continue in the future. This paper presents the results of a futures study focussed on the Higher Education sector in the UK in 10 and 25 years time. Following an extensive, broad ranging literature review covering business, education, futures, and socio-political texts and studies, a series of scenarios were developed for the future of the sector as a whole. This study differs from other studies in its field as it is does not focus on individual institutions, but rather at the environmental factors that are going to impact on the sector, setting out a range of scenarios within which institutions will need to shape their individual futures. Five scenarios are presented in this paper with their underlying driving factors, and their implications for the academic workforce being employed in the sector.
 
Article
Although too many unanticipated technological and political developments may occur between now and 2040, this paper tries to predict, after a quick look at the experience of last four decades. Current estimates of population below the poverty line in India range from 26–44%, with great regional variations. International experience shows that only through growth based on outward orientation and competition can a long-lasting solution to poverty and unemployment be found. The forces of globalisation, driven by the private sector today, are not likely to be pushed back. By 2040, India will be an integral part of a much more integrated world, particularly so with the South Asian region. While external sector reforms have taken place in India, domestic reforms (in agriculture, the rural sector—credit, insurance and extension services, subsidies, legal and tax reforms and physical and social infrastructure)—which can dispel the notion that reforms are pro-rich and anti-poor—have been tardy. But the vested groups that oppose reforms are vocal, the groups who will benefit from reforms tend to be diffused and less vocal. Thus steady state rather than big bang reforms are likely to take place in India. The state’s role will be to focus on governance, including social and physical infrastructure and law and order. During the next four decades, India is likely to be able to achieve a real per capita GDP growth rate of 5.5%. As a consequence, measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, India—the fourth largest economy today—will overtake Japan by 2020 and the United States by 2040.
 
Article
The new electronics technologies are propelling a transformation of value creation from being based on physical work to being based on knowledge creation. This is creating an economy increasingly based on innovation, but this means that the obsolescence is becoming increasingly rapid. Some products such as personal computers are now on a three-month product cycle meaning that even as value is being created more quickly, it is also being destroyed more quickly. Software is one of the quintessential products of this new economy. One of the central dilemmas of the knowledge economy is that the product knowledge often can be reproduced at essentially no cost. This means that it is difficult to enforce private property relationships creating a difficulty for private firms. Information and knowledge creation have already become the central pivot in capitalist economies and this will only be reinforced.
 
Article
The belief that it is possible to discern the shape of coming things—that is, the idea of the future—survived the unexpected disasters of World War I. There was, however, no going back to the old confident anticipations of uniform progress in all directions. The many profound changes of that time—political, technological, social—were a formidable challenge to the analysts of things-to-come. For them the future was turning out to be far less discernible than it had appeared in the happier days at the beginning of the 20th century. In that self-confident era H.G. Wells assured the readers of his Anticipations in 1902 that all things were working to the advantage of Western society. Indeed, it is the measure of the profound change in expectation during the first half of the 20th century that in 1946 H.G. Wells rang down the curtain on humankind. In the revised edition of his Short History of the World Wells considered the disasters of World War II and came to the conclusion that the end was fast approaching for humankind. The Grand Old Man of the Future wrote: ‘Homo sapiens, as he has been pleased to call himself, is in his present form played out … he has to give place to some other animal better adapted to face the fate that closes in more and more swiftly upon mankind’. As I.F. Clarke observes: the analysis of future things has often more to do with mood than with method.
 
Article
In this article I.F. Clarke continues his examination of war as the major factor in future-thinking in the 20th century. His account opens with Winston Churchill's Iron Curtain speech at Westminster College, Fulton, in March 1946. It closes with the preliminary declaration of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, 19 November 1990: ‘The era of confrontation and division in Europe has ended’. During the 40-year confrontation between East and West one kind of future was contained in a set of menacing symbols—the Doomsday Clock, the flash in the sky, the mushroom cloud, the Day After. The images did what the prose of the military analysts could never hope to accomplish. They spoke directly to all humankind of a Last Day. In like manner a succession of most imaginative writers—American and British, in particular—produced their tracts for modern times in brilliant, admonitory fantasies of the future. These new histories of the apocalypse-to-come open with The Great Fire, The Doom War, The Great Blow Up, The Death of Cities. Read on and see what happens, they said, in The Bad Time when the land is divided between the Contaminated Persons, the Normals, the Crazies, the Riding Women, and the People of Darkness.
 
Article
The 20th century has seen a rise in dystopian images of futures and an apparent decline in imaging capacity. This article considers responses to this ‘imaging dilemma’. They include critique, futures workshops, accessing cultural resources, renegotiating aspects of a worldview and ‘imagining’ a different historical dynamic. It is concluded that there is a substantive basis for informed optimism and empowerment. The keys to each lie in the nature of the human response to what is desired or feared.
 
Article
Globalization, in its capitalistic and popular cultural form, is impacting communities around the world. This paper uses two models to show how globalization actually arose several millennia ago and how the process has greatly accelerated in recent times. One model describes the ‘information technology system’ and the second is James Miller’s living systems model. Using these models as a foundation, this paper argues that globalization can severely weaken communities and is antithetical to future-oriented perspectives. If current globalization trends continue unabated, globalization may result in a future world characterized by satiated consumers whose every desire is met by a totally efficient but completely impersonal economic system. In this world, people do not depend directly upon face-to-face interaction for their economic well being. Because of this, community and even culture collapses. Contrasted to this soulless world, it is argued that a new future could evolve where concern about the future replaces individualistic and market-oriented concerns as the prime motivator of public policy. This future has a good probability of occurring since current populations are being socialized to understand the broad concept of globalization. Additionally, new technologies will allow the development of small, mostly self-sufficient communities which will facilitate the re-emergence of community life and obligations.
 
Article
New and emerging technologies are rapidly expanding, and will greatly enhance the productive capabilities and wealth of those countries and entities that are making judicious and appropriate investments in them. These technologies will govern future human interactions worldwide and dominate global economic activities in the 21st century. This article examines the implications of these developments, and the strategies which have led to technological dominance and competitive advantage. The article outlines the fundamental steps that Africa and its peoples must take, both nationally and regionally, to ensure that these technologies are catalysts to the development and economic growth of the continent. Such steps include specifying policy objectives and priorities, essential infrastructural developments, and recognition, utilization and further development of indigenous talents.
 
Article
National 21st century studies are being carried out in most parts of the world today and are gaining considerable attention. These studies share certain key characteristics that set them apart from many future studies, yet they also exhibit quite a variety of differences, including ones in sectoral coverage, methodology, and purpose. The significance of these variations is discussed in this article, which also outlines, on the basis of the studies to date, a model for an effective national 21st century study.
 
Article
This article briefly summarizes a prognostic Report, ‘Towards modern Poland—development dilemmas on the verge of the 21st century’ of the Poland 2000 Committee of the Polish Academy of Sciences. It further comments on the changes of perspective that have occurred since the Report was written. The study consisted of the development and analysis of three scenarios of socioeconomic development based on societal aspirations. Key drivers influencing these scenarios and their likelihood are discussed here.
 
Article
This article is based on the idea that gender issues are crucial when discussing the future of the university. They determine the way we situate and contextualise this important institution and the very idea of the university. In this context traditional and alternative ideas of the university, including feminist and women's alternatives, are assessed. The article also explores current transformations of the universities and how they will influence women.
 
Article
What will be the social role of courts over the future? This essay explores this question by examining the “five dimensions” of judiciary—the judiciary as a branch of government, subsystem of the legal system, as a forum for resolving dispute, as public agency, and an institution of a changing society. It considers the duty of courts to safeguard the interests of future generations; the place of courts during “the end of authority”; the increasing use of artificial intelligence in formal adjudication, and concludes with a time when “the courts of justice are overgrown with grass”.
 
Top-cited authors
Jerome R. Ravetz
  • University of Oxford
S. O. Funtowicz
  • University of Bergen
Jan Rotmans
  • Erasmus University Rotterdam
Sohail Inayatullah
  • Tamkang University
Richard Florida
  • University of Toronto