We estimate the total factor productivity for argentine agriculture over the period 1955 to 2003. One method of quantifying the impact of productivity is the use of growth accounting index numbers (Divisia index). However, some papers (see, for example, Hsieh, 2000) show that if technological change is not Hicks neutral then conventional total factor productivity index is not a satisfactory measure of this indicator, since that observed cost shares conflates the contribution of factor accumulation to output growth with that of technological change. In this paper, cost share equation system in the form of state-space model with latent variables are used to detect technological biased and to estimate the total factor productivity adjusted.
The objective of this paper is to contribute to the discussion on the sensitivity of both savings and interest rate. The relation between these two variables is estimated empirically in the case of Mexico. An Euler Equation model is applied. Consumers facing liquidness restrictions are incorporated to the model, and estimations are made with both annual data and quarterly data.
The Post Keynesian argument that the main limitation to growth -basically of any middle income country- is due to the trade deficit. This feature, which is structural, is called -within this frame work- External Constraint to Growth, ECG, through cointegration and ECM analysis for exports and imports functions, it is empirically demonstrated the dynamic evolution of the ECG, for 1970-1999. Despite the Mexican Economy is considerably linked to the international economy, manufacturing leads the growth process and several structural reforms have been implemented since 1985, the main conclusion is that the ECG has not changed.
This study explores two aspects of Colombian chronic but moderate inflation experience during the period 1970 1990. Based on time series analysis, the study suggests that the policy to increase relative price of energy products be complemented with expenditure reducing mechanisms to avoid the validation of higher price pressures stemming from other sectors. Moreover, it recommends efforts to dismantle indexation mechanisms, which make it difficult to reduce inflation.
This paper provides a model of foreign debt and economic growth for México, which is used to establish regions of financial and socio-political viability. The possibilities for Mexican high growth rates, given the burden of its foreign debt, are then analyzed.
This paper presents a model grounded on game theory with incomplete information to explain some economic events that took place in Mexico during the Echeverría administration. These are the aborted fiscal reform of 1972 and the deterioration in the relationship between the government and the private sector from 1973 to 1976 (represented by excesive government expenditures, capital flight, inflation and low investment).
Se aplican modelos estructurales de vectores autorregresivos para caracterizar
el impacto din´amico de la política fiscal sobre el ahorro nacional,
modelos ampliamente utilizados en el caso de la política monetaria.
Usamos datos ajustados por inflación, fuga de capital, pérdida
del valor de la deuda y efectos cíclicos, en vez de trabajar con medidas
tradicionales. Nuestros resultados sugieren que, políticas fiscales
que aumentan el superávit estructural, tienen impacto positivo sobre el
ahorro nacional, cierto impacto negativo sobre el ahorro privado en el
corto plazo, pero ninguno en el largo plazo, así como un efecto negativo
sobre la brecha del producto.
Even though there is a growing consensus in the existing literature on the positive effect that public investment generates for economic growth, its impact on private investment is by no means a settled issue. This study seeks to determine empirically the relation between these two variables for the Mexican economy during the 1980-2007 period. The results of dynamic estimations yield a partial crowding out of public investment in the short run, while, in the long run, it exerts a weak and marginal complementarity effect on private investment.
Los subsidios a la exportación y las prácticas de dumping son dos de las políticas comerciales que generalmente se traducen en precios de intercambio comercial artificialmente bajos. Pero, mientras las empresas individuales son las que emprenden prácticas de dumping bajo su propio riesgo, las políticas de subsidios a la exportación son instrumentadas y administradas por los gobiernos. Las reglas del comercio internacional permiten el empleo de aranceles compensatorios para contrarrestar los efectos de estos subsidios. Se discute el hecho de que, si bien para los países en desarrollo las reglas sobre aranceles compensatorios son más laxas, para el caso en que los subsidios que ocasionen daño a las industrias de Estados Unidos, este pais aplica las reglas de manera estricta. En este artículo se presenta evidencia sobre las políticas utilizadas por México para subsidiar sus exportaciones, así como también, estimaciones de la tasa de subsidio y del grado en que dichas políticas de promoción han sido compensadas por Estados Unidos con aranceles compensatorios.
J. D. Geanakoplos and H. M. Polemarchakis (1986) prove the generic constrained suboptimality of equilibrium allocations in two period economies with incomplete markets. They perturb asset prices at equilibrium when the degree of market incompleteness equals one. Since prices do not parameterize the economy, a generic result cannot be obtained in such a way. These notes provide a detailed version of their proof in which utilities and endowments are perturbed.
This paper reviews the factors and mechanisms that have been driving inequality in Mexico and finds that educational inequality accounts for by far the largest share of Mexico’s variation in earnings inequality. The contribution of inequality of education to inequality of earnings in Mexico is the second highest in Latin America after Brazil. The increase in earnings inequality, however, does not appear to be the result of a worsening in the distribution of education, although the income profile, which is related to the returns to schooling, has become much steeper.
After the reestablishment of the public liberties system, and after two general electoral processes, the author analyses the interrelationship between democracy and economy in Chile. Finally, he proposes to investigate which factors determine the final decision of the electors during the parliamentary and presidential elections, and whether the governments of this new democratic era have used economics with electoral and/or ideological purposes. The causal models of the vote function during the 1993 presidential and parliamentary elections, and the analysis of the governmental intervention during this even years living in freedom, prove that the Chilean State is not neutral in its role of an economic life regulator.
This article analyzes the determinants of inflation in Mexico during the 1989–2000 period. Inflation is modelled as a function of deviations in the long-run relations that may exist in the monetary, labour and exchange rate markets. By using cointegration techniques, we obtain an error-correction model where money excess, wage pressure and deviations of the Purchasing Power Parity are possible sources of inflation. The model includes an inertial factor and a policy component due to government-controlled price changes in certain goods. The results show that all the factors mentioned have contributed to the determination of the inflationary dynamics in Mexico.
This paper examines changes in intra-industry trade, IIT, in manufactured goods between the US and Mexico over the first five years of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Most industries experienced large increases in, IIT. An examination of various indexes of intra-industry specialization indicates that few industries in either country are candidates for significant adjustment problems. These findings should lessen opposition to greater regional economic integration in the Western Hemisphere
El objetivo de este documento es analizar la relación desempleo-salario
en México durante el periodo 1993-2002, utilizando la metodología de
curva salarial. Los resultados muestran una relación negativa entre la
tasa de desempleo local y los salarios, aunque su elasticidad es inferior
a la obtenida en otros países. La clasificación de los trabajadores por
grupos establece que las condiciones de desocupación local no inciden
sobre las remuneraciones de trabajadores del sector público, además
existe distinta elasticidad salarial entre grupos (género, disposición de
prestaciones sociales, edad y escolaridad ). La exploración de especificaciones alternativas indica que los salarios tienen un comportamieto
diferente en función del nivel de desempleo.
Changes in the trade of manufactured goods between the United States and Mexico are examined during the first 5 years of the North American Free Trade Agreement implementation period. Most industries exhibit large increases in intra-industry trade. An examination of intra-industry specialization indexes indicates that there are few industries in either country are candidates for significant adjustment problems. The results imply that there are relatively few major risks associated with greater regional economic integration in North America.
The aim of this work is to analyze some factors that a_ect the Mexican process of regional innovation during 1994-2006. Through the use of regression methodologies for count data we find a positive and significant effect of the foreign investment and the educative level on the innovative activity of the Mexican states. Also we find that the innovation process is highly dependent on the geographic location and the patents by multinational firms, which suggests in Mexico a process of technology learning is being formed rather than an innovation process, mainly among states geographically belonging to the center of the country.
Our aim is to quantify the GDP measurement bias derive from quality improvements in information technology sector. Using hedonic price indexes for IT goods, our results show that between 2000 and 2004 economic growth rate was, at most, approximately 2% on average per year -and not 1.60% as is established by the Mexican National Account System. The sensitivity of our results is explored applying IT price indexes of United States. It should be noted that the applied methodology may exaggerate the size of the measurement error.
The paper analyzes the problems of regional convergence for the Mexican case. Although some mechanisms of regional converge operate, for instance those related to the greater performance of educational investment in less developed regions before those more developed, the available evidence suggests that in the economy a process of divergence has operated. Certain externalities inherent to economic development, strengthened by liberalization and globalization are identified as possible causes of the process
This paper analyzes the ongoing international macroeconomic crisis and compares it with the Great Depression of the 1930s. It also discusses whether the government’s financial support program will be enough as to ensure the return to economic normality after the crisis is contained. The paper discusses whether the measures taken will be enough to avoid a further deepening of the global imbalances and it argues that not being able to do so could result in a catastrophic outcome.
Este trabajo es un ejercicio de dinámica comparativa y juegos diferenciales. Analizamos a profundidad dos tipos de perturbaciones en una economía pequeña con tasas de cambio flexibles e inflación secular. Una de estas perturbaciones es de índole monetaria, mientras que la otra es de naturaleza de costos. Específicamente, suponemos un control pleno del sector privado sobre un margen de ganancia variable sobre sus costos. Además, consideramos aspectos estratégicos del gobierno versus el sector privado en un marco teórico de juegos dinámicos: Consideramos una simulación numérica de una solución de Nash abierta que no es consistente en el tiempo.
We examine the non-linearity of the Mexican Stock Market daily returns. We find empirical evidence to reject lineal specifications in the behavior of the stock returns. As a consequence, most of the findings based on lineal methods regarding the stock market in Mexico may be questioned. We also test a random walk specification versus an alternative hypothesis of chaos in the Mexican stock market index, IPC. To achieve this, we design a statistic based on Lyapunov dominant exponent by using local polynomial regression methods. The empirical distribution of the statistic is obtained through the surrogate data method. Finally, the test concludes that the hypothesis of random walk cannot be rejected.
Se muestra un estudio empírico para comparar la distribución normal,
la t-Student y la distribución gaussiana inversa normal (NIG). Se lleva
acabo para el caso de los rendimientos de la bolsa Mexicana de Valores.
Los parámetros de la distribución NIG y t-Student son estimados por
máxima verosilimitud. El rechazo de normalidad es contundente al usar
la prueba ómnibus. Los resultados son muy claros: el ajuste para la
distribución NIG es mejor que para la distribución normal. También se
realizó la prueba de Kolmogorov-Smirnov para comparar la t-Student
y la NIG.
This paper deals with the main problems related to predictability of asset returns when data series are not normally stationary distributed. The statistical analysis includes several normality tests on returns series of Banamex-30 stocks first, and then an application of mixture of probability distributions and stochastic processes to series, which are not normal stationary. As a means to avoid the normality assumption when forecasting asset returns, we introduce a second-order Markov model. Se analizan los principales problemas estadísticos relacionados con el pronóstico de acciones cuando la distribución de sus series de rendimientos no son normales estacionarias. La exposición comprende una aplicación pormenorizada de las pruebas de normalidad para las acciones que forman el índice Banamex-30, así como el empleo de algunas mezclas de distribuciones y de procesos estocásticos para las series que no son normales estacionarias. Como método alternativo de estudio, se propone un modelo de Markov de segundo orden dirigido a obtener pronósticos cuya elaboración no descansa sobre el supuesto de normalidad.
We present in this paper some new results on the strong incompatibility between chaos and patience in a macroeconomic model of capital accumulation. These results are explicit and non-trivial applications of the general theorem proven in Guerrero-Luchtenberg (2000), in which the statement (theorem 2) ‘chaos vanishes as the discount factor tends to one’, is formally presented. Here, we show precisely how this statement applies to some important indicators of chaos not analyzed before. Furthermore, we will show that, for a given family of optimal growth models, there is a bound on the discount factor such that any type of chaos is negligible.
This paper analyzes the relationships of monetary aggregates with inflation and economic activity in Mexico from 1980 to 2000. The stability of the long-run and short-run demands for each aggregate is examined and the exogeneity properties of the variables involved are discussed. Among all the definitions of money, currency is the one that helps to forecast inflation and economic activity better although, even in this case, the usefulness of monetary aggregates for this purpose seems to be rather modest
We study the implications of linking the Mexican natural gas price to the Houston price on the efficient marketing of gas in Mexico. We argue that Pemex should be permitted to enter into spot contracts or future contracts to sell gas. However, the price of gas should always be the net back price based on the Houston Ship Channel at the time of delivery. Pemex should not be permitted to discount the price of gas from the Houston netback price even in a non discriminatory fashion. This arrangement is transparent, it is easy to enforce and does not eliminate any legitimate market options for any of the parties involved. Pemex or consumers of gas can use the Houston market for hedging speculative transactions.
This paper reviews aspects of the theory of Custom Unions which are relevant for Mexico given the possible North American Free Trade Agreement. The following themes are discussed: effects of trade creation and trade diversion; production effects; terms of trade effects; common external tariff; economies of scale; unilateral tariff; reduction; foreign firms in the formation of custom unions; and economic development.
H. G. Johnson (1967) hizo notar por primera vez la posibilidad de pérdidas de ingreso por acumulación de factores en presencia de aranceles. El trabajo de Johnson no establece una relación entre la imposición del arancel y el aumento del factor. Este estudio reexamina este aspecto de la teoría del comercio internacional y propone un método para relacionar los dos fenómenos por medio de la maximización de beneficios. La discusión se enfoca a la estructura intertemporal de la producción, caracterizada por un proceso "austriaco" de insumos y productos en dos periodos. Se muestra que si una economía pequeña adopta una política proteccionista permanente en favor del sector intensivo en capital, el país incrementará la acumulación de ese factor, pero a pesar de esta acumulación inducida, el ingreso real del país se verá reducido.
The purpose of this paper is to find sufficient conditions under which the results of the simple search model are preserved when learning is allowed. It is shown that the properties of the simple search model are preserved with very simple assumptions. Intuitively, we need a non explosive agent. That is, expectations must be smooth.
This paper analyzes the short term exchange rate coverage market in Mexico. The results demonstrate inefficiencies in this market due to the fact that the implicit forward exchange rate violates the Unbiased Eficiency Hypotesis (UEH). Nonstationarity and co integration are considered in the context of time series models, following Engle & Granger (1987) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) methodologies. The Error Corrections Model (ECM) and statistical tests of restrictions are used in co integration vectors to test for the UEH. The paper concludes with a discussion of possible explanatory factors for the results, as well as future research implied by the findings.
This paper estimates changes in poverty in Mexico between 1984 and 1989. Poverty is estimated using uncorrected data from the household surveys and estimation is repeated after the data is adjusted for under reporting using National Accounts totals as benchmarks. The paper illustrates the sensitivity of poverty estimates in Mexico both to the adjustment itself and the specific procedure used to adjust the survey data for under reporting. Until more information is available on the distribution of under reporting it will not be possible to give a final verdict on the order of magnitude of the rise in poverty.
The restrictions imposed by the regulatory authorities on the composition of retirement-fund portfolios are aimed at avoiding opportunistic behavior on the part of retirement-fund managers. However, these restrictions reduce the welfare of the shareholders of such funds. In this paper, the welfare loss associated with different possible restrictions I is quantified. In order to do this, we apply efficient mathematical programming techniques to quickly obtain optimal portfolios given these exogenous constraints. We include a numerical example in order to make the effect of such constraints more clear.
The social costs of adopting GATT-consistent against unfair trade policies in Latin America will continue to rise as an increasing number of countries are implementing them. Detailed data presented in the paper shows that during the 80s, Latin America was hit when industrial countries applied numerous unfair trade measures against its exports. The data also shows that as several of the countries in the region became heavily indebted, industrial countries were accelerating the use of these measures. Two policy suggestions emerge from the discussion. First,, Latin America should consider the importance of protecting import-competing industries with appropriate macroeconomic policies and realistic exchange rates, Second, they should also consider complementing GATT-consistent unfair trade policies with regulatory adjustments that would minimize theiprotective effects these policies usually have..
This paper studies the changes in optimal tariffs on goods from the rest of the world due to the signing of a free trade agreement and the build up of a custom union. It shows that a trade agreement that reduces or eliminates tariffs between member countries, gives them the incentives to reduce tariffs on goods from the rest of the world regardless of the existence of a custom union in an agreement. It also shows that tariffs reduction is greater when the agreement does not contemplate a custom union.
This study uses data from the 1999-2000 SABE survey to analyze socioeconomic inequities in healthcare access, utilization, and quality, for a sample of elderly individuals from Montevideo, Uruguay. We find horizontal inequity favoring the rich in the quality of access to medical visits (lower time spent travelling to the office and waiting in the office), in the probability of medical visits in the past 4 and 12 months, and in the use of preventive services (mamographies, pap scans, and prostate exams). The instrumental variables analysis suggests that inequities are probably underestimated when endogeneity is not taken into consideration.
We analyze a model in which a risk-averse country finances its development project under asymmetric information. Before the project renders its fruits, two types of news will become available, one of which will reduce the asymmetry of information between the country and its investors. We characterize the optimal financial contract both when complete financial contracting is possible and when the country is restricted to using only short-term and long-term debt.
La provisión de servicios aeroportuarios resulta en una red de relaciones contractuales entre el concesionario principal y otras empresas. El hecho de que existan múltiples servicios que se ofrecen en los aeropuertos permite que varias alternativas puedan elegirse. En particular, el concesionario puede llevar a cabo éstas por sí mismo ("integración vertical") o por el contrario transferirlas para que sean llevadas a cabo por un tercero ("des-integración"). Las ventajas de una u otra alternativa dependen de varios factores.
En este trabajo se analiza el impacto que tienen, sobre la integración vertical, aspectos relativos a: (a) dificultades de controlar mano de obra y (b) necesidad de contar con conocimiento especializado de distintas líneas de negocio. El trabajo muestra que, en general, la decisión de integrar un proceso está afectada en forma negativa por los dos factores mencionados.
También se analiza la relevancia de la tercerización (des-integración vertical) como herramienta para la reducción de riesgos de la empresa. Se concluye que -para el sector analizado- las decisiones relativas a des-integración no parecen tener como justificativo el manejo de riesgos (variabilidad de ingresos) de la empresa.
En este ensayo se discuten las condiciones necesarias para establecer un contrato entre el principal y el agente en un contexto de interacción evolutiva, y como se impone un tipo de tecnología. Al usar juegos evolutivos, se encuentran las condiciones de estabilidad del juego a través del concepto de Estrategias Evolutivas Estables, EEE, de Maynard Smith. Cuando la productividad es mayor que uno surge una EEE en una tecnología, y cuando es inferior a uno, la única explicación plausible en torno a como escogen los jugadores un tipo de tecnología, radica en que éstos siguen una convención.
This paper presents the main results obtained from an applied general equilibrium model of Mexico, which tries to identify the impact on agricultural production and consumption of a North American Free Trade Agreement. It also discusses the limit and potentialities of such models.
A number of empirical studies have concluded that capital is internationally immobile. This result contradicts the empirical observation that a large volume of capital is traded every day in international capital markets. Is capital internationally mobile or not? This is the well known Feldstein-Horioka paradox. By estimating savings retention coefficients, we find that in Mexico, capital was immobile during the 1960’s and 1970’s but mobile during the 1980’s and 1990’s.
En este documento se ofrece un nuevo enfoque para analizar los tipos de cambio duales que destacan las interacciones de los sectores real y financiero de la economía. Se modelan los vínculos entre los flujos de divisas, la disponibilidad de capital de trabajo y la producción interna. Más aún, al limitar el grado de los flujos financieros y desvincular los precios de los bienes comerciables de la tasa de cambio, los tipos de cambio duales reducen el impacto de las perturbaciones externas sobre la producción interna, aun cuando existan fugas entre los mercados oficial y financiero. En el artículo también se comparan los tipos de cambio duales y flexibles. Se muestra que el impacto de una perturbación temporal externa es menor bajo las tasas duales. Sin embargo, la persistencia es mayor. Finalmente, se analiza la cuestión de la reunificación y la inconsistencia dinámica de los sistemas de tipo de cambio duales.
In a quite simplified model, when nominal wages are completely predetermined, different macroeconomic shocks produce oscillations in output and inflation that can be stable or explosive. If they are stable, in many cases a peculiar dynamics, perhaps complex, appears, where output and inflation show cycles of multiple order. Even in those cases the cycles show well defined patterns. The model of this work suggests that in more real contexts marginal changes in certain rules of price adjustment could generate hyper sensibility of macroeconomic variables to some parameters, as well as dynamic instability.
This paper examines the recent inflationary process in the Mexican economy using two complementary approaches that avoid (some-what) the restrictions imposed by structural models. The first approach applies a vector autoagresive process, while the second applies multivariate cointegration.
