Emerging Markets Finance and Trade

This paper examines business cycle characteristics of Mediterranean countries using a set of macroeconomic aggregates (GDP and demand components, money, and prices) for fifteen Mediterranean countries over the 1960-2000 period. We analyze the main properties of business cycle fluctuations (persistence, volatility, asymmetry, and synchronization) and suggest that there are various regularities in the characteristics of business cycles of countries that are similar in their stage of development and/or geographical contiguity. Moreover, we investigate if comovements in aggregate time series are robust; that is, if they are common to various countries belonging to different economic levels of development, but that are geographically contiguous and with economic and historical linkages. We find similarities in terms of comovements and periodicity with respect to the GDP for consumption and investment among the aggregate demand components and, to a lesser degree, the price level and the inflation rate. On the other hand, differences among developed and developing countries of the Mediterranean region emerge, as both trade balance and policy variables are procyclical in many developing countries. Such findings may reflect the characteristics of policy making in developing countries and those countries' dependence on world demand in international trade.

This paper explores sources of growth in the Turkish economy by performing growth accounting exercises over the 1960-2004 period and relevant subperiods. It also analyzes the role of a number of important policy-related factors, such as infrastructure investment, macroeconomic instability, and imports, on total factor productivity (TFP) by performing cointegration and impulse response analyses. The results suggest that both TFP and capital accumulation were crucial sources of growth during the sample period. Nevertheless, TFP growth displayed enormous variation from 1960 to 2004. The descriptive and empirical evidence suggests that TFP is positively affected by imports and public infrastructure investment and negatively affected by macroeconomic instability.

The relationship between financial-system reform and growth is of continuing interest and the subject of ongoing research; yet many aspects of it remain unclear. This paper contributes to the literature by an analysis of this relationship using Chinese time-series data. China is a particularly interesting subject for such a study since it has undergone rapid and wide-ranging financial liberalisation since economic reforms began in 1978 thus providing a rich source of data. We construct an index of financial liberalisation by combining the ‘Delphi method’ and principal components analysis to combine eight aspects of the reform process for 1978 to 2004. We tackle the question of the finance-growth nexus by estimating and simulating a VAR model of growth, saving and liberalisation. We find robust evidence of significant positive effects of liberalisation on growth in the short run and on accumulated growth in the long run but weak and predominantly negative effects of liberalisation on saving. Tests of short-run Granger causality show that liberalisation significantly causes both growth and saving but that there are no significant feedbacks to liberalisation.

In the 1990s, transition countries underwent large fiscal adjustments to address the fiscal imbalances that existed at the start of the transition process. This paper examines whether the factors identified in the empirical literature on advanced economies, namely the size and composition of fiscal adjustments are also important in determining the success of fiscal adjustment in transition economies. The main findings are that larger consolidations were more successful in addressing the fiscal imbalances on a durable basis. There is evidence that policies that focused on expenditure were more successful in addressing the imbalances than those that relied on revenue increases. The paper finds little evidence of expansionary fiscal contractions, but fiscal contractions were not associated with a significantly negative impact on growth either. For those that attempted fiscal stimulus in the 1990s, few succeeded in boosting growth significantly above the average country-specific growth rate for the 1990s.

Voluminous theoretical and empirical literature examines the relation between financial-sector development and economic growth. However, previous studies have largely ignored progress in former Soviet Central Asian republics engaged in transition from socialist command economies to market economies. This paper seeks to fill this gap in the literature by considering Kazakhstan's experience with financial-sector liberalization and the socioeconomic effects of these reforms. We summarize the prereform economic circumstances prevailing in Kazakhstan, outline the major characteristics of its postcommunist financial system, and provide a detailed chronicle of financial-sector reform measures from 1993 to 2006. The paper focuses on the evolution of Kazakhstan's banking structure, policies adopted by the National Bank of Kazakhstan, and the approach taken to the privatization of state banks, as well as the steps taken to improve bank accounting standards and banking supervision. The development path of nonbank financial institutions and capital markets is also examined. We consider the outcomes of financial-sector reforms and their effects on the economy as a whole.

The ability of simple technical trading rules to forecast future stock market movements is considered for seventeen emerging markets, sampled from January 1986 to September 2003. Some of the trading rules considered generated significant returns; this information could be exploited profitably on occasion. Market conditions and trading volume are found to be important to determining the usefulness of technical trading rules.

This paper analyzes the failed IMF program in Turkey that was initiated in December 1999. The 1999 Turkish exchange rate-based stabilization program was presented as an improved version of earlier programs implemented in Latin American countries. The inclusion of an exit strategy was considered as an innovative element of the Turkish program. However, the program crashed fourteen months after its initiation. This paper argues that the Turkish program underestimated the possible negative impact of unfavorable initial conditions, especially conditions of an institutional nature, which turned out to be a fatal mistake. Among the conditions that were ignored by the 1999 program were the absence of an independent and effective regulatory agency in the banking sector and the circumstances under which the Treasury carried out its borrowing.

In February 2001, Turkey became the latest emerging market to experience a devastating crisis, following the collapse of its soft exchange rate peg. The crisis severely damaged the country's banking system and led to an unprecedented contraction in economic activity. The boom that preceded it seemed to be relatively short lived, as the initial rush of capital outflow occurred just eleven months after the start of the program, and the fatal exit just three months later. This paper discusses the factors that seemed to play an important role in the collapse of Turkey's International Monetary Fund (IMF)-supported exchange rate-based stabilization plan just thirteen months after its commencement. It is often difficult to attribute such crises entirely to a single factor, and not always possible to arrive at a strong verdict by analyzing economic developments in light of, or in the manner formally suggested by, the alternative models commonly used to analyze currency crises in the literature. In the Turkish case, enumerating the many factors that may have contributed to the collapse is important and very useful--yet this should not obscure the critical role played by the failure to establish or achieve tangible progress toward a sustainable fiscal regime. Not recognizing this fundamental weakness could easily lead observers to emphasize design flaws as the main culprit or to argue that the collapse could have been avoided if several other factors had broken more in Turkey's favor.

This study presents empirical evidence related to futures pricing for the SGX FTSE Xinhua China A50 and HKEx H-share index futures markets. First, whether the costof-carry model can describe the relationship between index futures prices and underlying stock indexes is examined. As anticipated, the cost of carry model cannot accurately predict the prices of these two index futures, because the two underlying Chinese stock markets display high price volatility. Furthermore, the empirical results indicate that different risk-free interest rate proxies have little effect on the mispricing of the cost-of-carry model. Next, this study compares the pricing performance of the cost-of-carry model and the Hemler-Longstaff (1991) model with stock market volatility. Empirical results demonstrate that incorporating stock market volatility into pricing models appears beneficial for estimating prices on these two index futures. Furthermore, the component GARCH model improves the pricing performance of the Hemler-Longstaff model. Finally, the autocorrelation and regression results suggest high persistence in mispricings.

Policies regarding the globalization of financial markets have long been investigated with conflicting results. This paper employs an event study approach with the EGARCH process to examine the effects of lifting restrictions on qualified foreign institutional investors in the Taiwanese stock market. The empirical results indicate significant differences in the behavior of stock returns in the electronics, financial, and other nonfinancial sectors, both on and after the abolition of Taiwan's investment quota. In addition, the volatility of stock returns in the electronics sector increases following the event. Foreign ownership provides some additional explanatory power for electronics and other nonfinancial stocks in the short run.

Using the vector autoregressive methodology, we present estimates of monetary transmission for five new EU member countries in Central and Eastern Europe with more or less flexible exchange rates. We select sample periods to estimate over the longest possible period that can be considered as a single monetary policy regime. To identify the vector autoregression (VAR), structural restrictions and the widely used Cholesky ordering are employed. We conclude that the structural VAR yields much better results. Fewer countries suffer from a price puzzle (i.e., an increase in prices following a monetary contraction). Our results also indicate that there are substantial differences in monetary transmission across the countries in our sample.

We analyze the determinants of corporate interest rates and the financial accelerator in the Czech Republic. Using a unique panel of 448 Czech firms from 1996 to 2002, we find that selected balance sheet indicators significantly influence the firmspecific interest rates. Debt structure and cash flow have significant effects on interest rates, whereas indicators on collateral play no significant role. Monetary policy has stronger effects on smaller firms than on medium-size and larger firms. Finally, we find no asymmetric effects in the monetary policy over the business cycle.

Time and value are related concepts that influence human behaviour. Although classical topics in human thinking throughout the ages, few environmental economic non-market valuation studies have attempted to link the two concepts. Economists have estimated non-market environmental values in monetary terms for over 30 years. This history of valuation provides an opportunity to compare value estimates and how valuation techniques have changed over time. This research aims to compare value estimates of benefits of a protected natural area. In 1978, Nadgee Nature Reserve on the far south coast of New South Wales was the focus of the first application of the contingent valuation method in Australia. This research aims to replicate that study using both the original 1978 contingent valuation method questionnaire and sampling technique, as well as state of the art non-market valuation tools. This replication will provide insights into the extent and direction of changes in environmental values over time. It will also highlight the impact on value estimates of methodological evolution. These insights will help make allocating resources more efficient.

This paper reviews price dynamics in the Central and Eastern European accession countries between 1990 and 2001. The paper starts with an analysis of the short-term and long-term (dis)inflation developments. This is complemented by an appraisal of price level convergence. The major driving forces of price formation in the accession countries are found to be related to price liberalization during the transition to a market economy, to the prospective EU accession, and to the catching-up process (Balassa-Samuelson effect). Finally, the paper draws conclusions about future monetary and exchange rate policy options in the run-up to EU accession and beyond.

This paper examines the efficiency of Bulgarian banks and its determinants over the period 1999-2007. The levels of technical, allocative, and cost efficiency are estimated using a nonparametric methodology and then regressed on a number of bankspecific, institutional, and EU-related factors. The findings indicate that foreign banks were more efficient than domestic private banks, although the gap between them narrowed over time. State-owned banks ranked last, but their privatization resulted in efficiency gains. Capitalization, liquidity, and enterprise restructuring enhanced bank efficiency, whereas banking reforms had an adverse effect. The Treaty of Accession and EU membership were associated with significant efficiency improvements.

It is argued that the sustainability of external debts depends on the stationarity of the current account balance. This study tests for the stationarity of current account deficits for a sample of sixteen Latin American countries, employing a new test, advocated by Breuer et al. (2002), that allows one to test for unit roots in heterogeneous panel data sets. This version of the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test involves estimating ADF regressions within a seemingly unrelated regression (SURADF) framework. The benefits of creating a panel to overcome low test power are well known, but this particular test also offers key advantages over existing alternative panel data unit root tests. Unlike previous tests, this one identifies which members from within the panel are responsible for rejecting the null hypothesis of joint nonstationarity. In addition, the SURADF test does not presume disturbances that are independently and identically distributed. Using annual data covering the period 1979-2001, this study finds strong evidence in favor of current account mean-reversion for at least twelve Latin American countries.

The paper characterizes the main determinants of the medium-term current account balance for oil-exporting countries using dynamic panel estimation techniques. It includes a large number of oil-exporting countries and extends the specifications commonly used in the literature to include an oil wealth variable as well as a proxy for the degree of maturity in oil production. The results reveal that factors that matter in determining the equilibrium current account balance of oil-exporting counties are fiscal balance, oil balance, oil wealth, age dependency, economic growth, and degree of oil production-related imports.

New empirical estimates of the effects of capital restrictions on growth support capital account liberalization, especially for developed countries. Capital restrictions reduce the benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth in developing countries. Estimation results for long-term capital flows demonstrate that countries with higher flows grow faster, challenging the belief that countries must attain a threshold level of development or human capital to benefit from capital inflows. Moreover, findings show that trade with developed countries and FDI inflows are substitutes in developing countries. Overall, the results support capital account liberalization in developed and developing countries.

Financial globalization offers both risks and benefits for countries of the semiperiphery or "emerging markets." Politics within the national space matters, yet acquires a new meaning, in the age of financial globalization. "Weak democracies" are characterized by limited accountability and transparency of the state and other key political institutions. Such democracies tend to suffer from populist cycles, which result in a low capacity to carry out economic reform. Financial globalization, in turn, magnifies populist cycles and renders their consequences more severe. Hence, "weak democracies" are confronted with the predominantly negative side of financial globalization, which includes overdependence on short-term capital flows, speculative attacks, and recurrent financial crises leading to slow growth and a more regressive income distributional profile. The relevance of these sets of propositions are illustrated with reference to the case of Turkey, which, indeed, experienced recurrent financial crises in the post-capital account liberalization era, with costly consequences for the real economy. Two general conclusions follow. First, there is a need to strengthen democracy in the developing world. Second, since this is hard to accomplish over a short period of time, serious questions are raised concerning the desirability of early exposure to financial globalization given the current state of the world.

Strengthening the accountability of government officials to achieve public satisfaction in democratic countries has been a crucial issue. We study the issue empirically using the concept of national governance based on a case study of the key Taiwanese financial regulator, namely, the Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC). This paper integrates theories of resource-based views, trust, and corporate governance to motivate the empirical analysis. The findings show that accountability is positively related to public satisfaction. Capability and integrity have a positive relation to the accountability of the regulator, suggesting that one of the most effective ways to get public satisfaction is to recruit staff with capability and integrity.

The aim of the paper is to compare the relationship between distribution, growth, accumulation, and employment in Turkey and in South Korea. These countries represent two different cases of export-oriented growth. The results of the structural adjustment experiences of both countries are in striking contrast to orthodox theory; however, they also present counterexamples to each other in terms of policies of economic integration. The paper tests whether accumulation and employment are profit-led in these two countries by means of a post-Keynesian open economy model, which includes a demand-driven labor market and a reserve army effect in the Marxian sense. The model is estimated in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) form in order to capture the complex simultaneous interaction between distribution, accumulation, growth, and employment within a systems approach. This model, and the method of estimation, are the two innovations of this paper in addressing the crucial policy issues related with structural adjustment problems in developing countries. The results show that decreasing the wage share does not stimulate accumulation, growth, and employment. Interestingly, the relation between wage share, investment, growth, and employment is similar in both Turkey and South Korea; however, the former experienced low and the latter high growth rates due to different export-oriented growth strategies. The explanation for this difference is found in the field of institutions, power structures, and state policies.

This paper analyzes the forecast performance of emerging market stock returns using standard autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and more elaborated autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models. Our results indicate that the ARMA and ARCH specifications generally outperform random walk models. Models that allow for asymmetric shocks to volatility are better for in-sample estimation (threshold autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity for daily returns and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity for longer periods), and ARMA models are better for out-of-sample forecasts. The results are valid using both U. S. dollar and domestic currencies. Overall, the forecast errors of each Latin American market can be explained by the forecasts of other Latin American markets and Asian markets. The forecast errors of each Asian market can be explained by the forecasts of other Asian markets, but not by Latin American markets. Our predictability results are economically significant and may be useful for portfolio managers to enter or leave the market.

Structural transformation is a key feature of economic development. Developed countries all followed the same process of structural transformation. This paper asks whether developing countries also follow a similar process. Three key findings emerge from the detailed analysis. First, developing countries are following different paths of structural transformation that deviate from those of developed countries in different ways. Second, the paths of the subcontinents of Africa, Asia, and Latin America are distinct, and there is great heterogeneity within each region. Third, many countries experience substantial structural transformation during periods of economic stagnation or even decline.

In this paper, we choose the correct model specification for eight European Union new member states (NMS) to estimate the exchange market pressure (EMP) for the period 1995-2009. The results suggest that the growth of domestic credit and the money multiplier had a significantly positive effect on EMP. Furthermore, EMP in many NMS was determined by foreign disturbances, namely, the eurozone's money supply, foreign capital inflow, and interest rate differential. EMP in most NMS with a flexible exchange rate regime was primarily absorbed by changes in international reserves. Along with fundamentally stable EMP development in recent years, this forms a solid basis for potential fulfillment of the exchange rate stability convergence criterion.

A decade into the transition, many successor states of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) continue to use pervasive energy sector quasi-fiscal activities, especially low energy prices and the toleration of payment arrears, to provide large implicit and untargeted subsidies to households and enterprises. These quasi-fiscal activities disguise the size of the government, cause over-consumption and waste, and contribute to macroeconomic imbalances. Based on two case studies--one of an energy-exporting country (Azerbaijan) and one of an energy-importing country (Ukraine)--and a survey of other FSU countries, the study finds that energy quasi-fiscal activities have declined in some of the energy-importing countries (e.g., Armenia, Kyrgyz Republic, Ukraine), but risen in energy-rich countries (e.g., Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkmenistan), largely on account of higher international oil prices. We found that energy sector payment arrears have triggered tax and other payment arrears by energy companies, and helped to perpetuate a vicious circle involving arrears, offsets, netting operations, and noncash payments. Policy recommendations are straightforward, but politically difficult to implement: increase energy prices and eliminate preferential tariffs or the free provision of services for specific consumer groups, combined with the provision of explicitly budgeted and better targeted cash transfers to needy population groups, and, if necessary, explicit subsidies to enterprises. We also argue that greater efforts are required to capture energy quasi-fiscal activities through improved public data dissemination, fiscal analysis, and measures that promote fiscal transparency and accountability.

This paper investigates the asymmetric equilibrium relationship among labor productivity, labor demand, and the exchange rate in Taiwan's manufacturing industry using a threshold cointegration test that allows asymmetric adjustment. The findings show that there is a temporal delay in the reaction of labor demand to change in labor productivity, and vice versa. However, a temporal impact of exchange rate shock on labor demand and labor productivity is statistically unobvious. A trade-off between productivity growth and employment growth is not found.

This paper modifies the two-industry, two-country Heckscher-Ohlin model with intermediate goods to decompose trade into its horizontal and vertical intra-industry, as well as inter-industry parts. Acknowledging that liberalization affects each type of trade differently, and that changes in each imply labor adjustment of different magnitudes, the paper analyzes the effects of widely observed asymmetries in liberalization policies. The paper concludes with the implications of the model for the liberalization between the East and the West through the Europe Agreements.

After important policy changes in 1980, Turkey's trade expanded considerably. Although interindustry trade remained predominant, intraindustry trade (IIT) increased substantially. This paper investigates whether the increase in IIT contributed to reducing adjustment costs due to trade expansion. We undertook an econometric approach and considered three-digit International Standard Industry Classification classified data. We used a model developed by Brülhart and Thorpe (2000) for Malaysia, both in static and dynamic forms. Our static results indicate that, if there is any contribution that IIT makes to adjustments in the manufacturing industries of Turkey, it is either nonexistent, if measured by changes in the GrubelâLloyd index, or in the opposite direction, if measured by the marginal IIT index (A). The dynamic results are somewhat more encouraging, in that the coefficients of the lagged A and GrubelâLloyd indexes are negative and significant when three yearly changes are considered, but the overall results are not sufficient to conclude that the structural adjustment hypothesis holds for Turkey.

This paper studies how financial stress, defined as periods of impaired financial intermediation, is transmitted from advanced to emerging economies using a new financial stress index for emerging economies. Previous financial crises in advanced economies passed through strongly and rapidly to emerging economies. The unprecedented spike in financial stress in advanced economies elevated stress across emerging economies above levels seen during the Asian crisis but with significant cross-country variation. The extent of pass-through of financial stress is related to the depth of financial linkages between advanced and emerging economies. Higher current account and fiscal balances do little to insulate emerging economies from the transmission of acute financial stress in advanced economies, although they may still help dampen the impact on the real economy.

High returns in emerging markets over the last decade have attracted international investors. This study investigates if and how economic or political news affects stock market activity in two emerging markets: Argentina and Turkey. Our analysis shows that political and economic news influences both the volatility of returns and trading volume in these markets to varying degrees. Results suggest that both economic and political factors, as well as specific market characteristics, should be taken into consideration by international investors when making investment decisions in emerging markets.

This paper empirically investigates the factors affecting auditors in evaluating information technology (IT) control structures by employing the COBIT framework, a popular IT internal control with integrated platform, and examines the relationship between monitoring function and other COBIT dimensions. The results of our empirical analysis indicate that key factors of IT governance endorsed by certified public accountants (CPAs) in Taiwan match fairly well with those prescribed in the COBIT framework. CPAs can utilize COBIT as a guideline for developing their approach to internal control structure and further limiting their audit liabilities.

It is now stylized that the importance of foreign direct investment for developing countries and emerging markets arises from the impact of the presence of multinational corporations (MNCs) in the host country on the productivity of local firms, by way of technology diffusion and competition. There is also general agreement that the extent of technology transfer by an MNC to a developing country affiliate depends on the extent of its control on the local affiliate and that, in turn, the extent of this control depends on the mode of entry of the MNC into the host country. However, the existing literature is based on the experience of developed countries and as such does not contribute to the literature on development economics. This article addresses this lacuna using unique firm-level data from South Africa and Egypt. Our results indicate that the determinants of entry mode choice not only differ between developed and developing countries, but also among developing countries. They also bring into question the role of MNCs in fostering productivity growth in developing countries.

Using monthly South African data for 1990:01-2009:10, this paper, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to examine the predictability of real stock prices based on valuation ratios, namely, price-dividend and price-earnings ratios. We cannot detect either short-horizon or long-horizon predictability; that is, the hypothesis that the current value of a valuation ratio is uncorrelated with future stock price changes cannot be rejected at both short- and long- horizons based on bootstrapped critical values constructed from linear representations of the data. We find, via Monte Carlo simulations, that the power to detect predictability in finite samples tends to decrease at long horizons in a linear framework. Though Monte Carlo simulations applied to exponential smooth-transition autoregressive (ESTAR) models of the price-dividend and price-earnings ratios, show increased power, the ability of the non-linear framework in explaining the pattern of stock price predictability in the data does not show any promise both at short- and long-horizons, just as in the linear predictive regressions.

This paper studies capital market integration in Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries and its implications for international portfolio investment allocation. Starting with four cointegration methodologies, we significantly reject the hypothesis of a stable, long-run bivariate relationship between each of these markets and the European Monetary Union (EMU), the United States, and a regional benchmark. This indicates the existence of significant diversification opportunities for three categories of investors (EMU, world, and regional investors). A recursive analysis based on Barari (2004) suggests that recently, the MENA markets have started to move toward international financial integration. Investigating the effect of selected financial, economic, and political events on such a process, we extend the methodology and find that the markets react heterogeneously to the different categories of shocks. They should therefore not be treated as a bloc for global allocation purposes. Finally, after adjusting the integration levels by relative market capitalization, Israel and Turkey are the most promising markets in the region, followed by Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco. Tunisia and Lebanon seem to be lagging behind.

This paper examines corporate financing patterns in Ghana, in particular, whether listed Ghanaian corporations make considerable use of the stock market to finance their growth. The paper also examines econometrically the effect of stock market development on the importance of debt relative to external equity in the balance sheet of Ghanaian firms. The results show that the average listed Ghanaian firm finances its growth mainly from short-term debt. The stock market, however, is the most important source of longterm external finance. Stock market development tends to shift the financial structure of Ghanaian firms toward more equity and less debt. Overall, the evidence suggests that the stock market is a surprisingly important source of finance for funding corporate growth.

This paper compares market emergence in the Middle and East and North African (MENA) region with other emerging markets. We first consider the main components of market emergence, including the size, depth, activity, and transparency of the market, and proceed to a descriptive analysis. Aggregating these observations into four bootstrapped indexes, we analyze the factors leading to market emergence with a probit model. We find that market size and activity seem to affect market emergence, whereas pricing and transparency do not. Finally, decomposing country-level probabilities and implementing a cluster analysis suggest that the average process of market emergence is more pronounced in the MENA region than it is in other emerging areas, such as Latin America and Eastern Europe. Overall, the results suggest that the MENA capital markets may attract more capital flows in the future. However, the markets are still heterogeneous: Whereas Turkey, Israel, Jordan, and Egypt are moving closer to the standards of developed countries, Lebanon, Tunisia, and Morocco can still be viewed as frontier markets.

Africa's export performance has been extremely poor in recent years. Its share of world exports has declined and most countries are highly dependent on a narrow range of primary commodities for export earnings. This paper looks at factors that affect the export performance of manufacturing enterprises in eight African countries. In addition to enterprise characteristics (e.g., size, ownership, and education of the manager), policy-related variables also affect exporting. Manufacturing enterprises are less likely to export in countries with restrictive trade and customs regulations and poor customs administration.

We examine the effects of exchange rate and political risks on foreign direct investment (FDI) for multinationals. We examine FDI by U. S. firms at two levels: in all industries and on the subset of firms in manufacturing industries. When investing in developed economies, firms appear to consider past and present variation in exchange rates. When investing in less developed nations, past and present variation does not appear to weigh as heavily as present and future variation. Decreasing political risk increases FDI.

This paper explores stock repurchase and agency issues in an emerging market with special regulations. Using match samples, agency-related variables are investigated for pre- and postannouncement periods. Our empirical evidence demonstrates that stock repurchase is related to agency cost mitigation. Agency problems are also significantly related to the preannouncement undervaluation of stock repurchase, after controlling for the effects of growth opportunity and asymmetric information. Finally, a company with a higher ratio of expected repurchase or higher agency costs normally enjoys better market response upon announcement.

This paper examines the time-series predictability of aggregate stock returns in twenty emerging markets. In contrast to the aggregate-level findings in the United States, earnings yield forecasts the time series of aggregate stock returns in emerging markets. We consider aggregate earnings not as normalizing variables for stock price but as predictive variables in their own right. Aggregate earnings covary with the market returns; hence, it is not just the mean reversion of stock prices that is responsible for the forecasting power of earnings yield. These results are robust across different estimation methods and after controlling for small-sample bias and macroeconomic variables.

This paper examines persistence in Turkish inflation rates using data from consumer and wholesale price indices. The inflationary process in Turkey is believed to be highly inertial, which should lead to strongly persistent inflation series. Persistence of seventy-five inflation series at various aggregation levels is examined by estimating models that allow long memory through fractional differencing. The order of fractional differencing is estimated using several semiparametric and maximum likelihood methods. Persistence of each series is evaluated using the time required for a given percentage of the effect of a shock to dissipate. We find that disaggregate inflation series show no significant persistence. We found that only twelve out of seventy-five series require more than six months for 99 percent of the effect of a shock to dissipate. Thus, the paper finds evidence of spurious long memory due to aggregation.

The paper analyzes the opportunity costs of current agricultural policies in Turkmenistan. It argues that the opportunity costs of continuing with these policies is very high for the budget, the average farmer, and the economy as a whole. The paper calls for the development of nontraditional agricultural crops, which are more profitable than wheat and cotton in the international commodity markets, and a comprehensive and sustained strategy for the agricultural sector.

This study aims to analyze whether banks' deviation from the mainstream in terms of asset and liability allocation enables them to perform better than their competition. Overall, deviation in the liability structure seems to have a significant impact on performance. In a second regression, the results obtained from the analysis of liability allocation are further examined by focusing on the effects of the deposit base on bank performance. Our analysis brings out the significance of liability allocation and of the effect of deposit strategies as a primary source of funding. The major difference of this study from the existing literature is that we focus primarily on both asset and liability allocation strategies of banks, and we further analyze the components of the liability structure to evaluate the impact of liability deviation on the banking strategy.

This study analyzes alternative monetary-policy rules in Turkey under inflation targeting (IT) using a small-scale structural macroeconomic model. The alternatives are the Taylor rule, the monetary conditions index (MCI) rule under strict IT, and the MCI rule under flexible IT. Using the MCI rule under strict IT produces slightly better results than under flexible IT and, thus, is preferable. The results also indicate that the economy stabilizes much more quickly, and shows significantly less volatility, in the second alternative. Following the Taylor rule should definitely be avoided. However, in open economies, ignoring exchange rates when setting inflation targets is certainly not an optimal solution.

We analyze the effects of currency crises on the industrial sectors of Korea, Turkey, and the Czech Republic. We find that the interval for the effect of the currency crisis on the industrial sector to disappear is around four years for Korea after the 1997 currency crisis; around five and seven years for Turkey following the 1994 and 2001 currency crises, respectively; and around five years for the Czech Republic following the 1997 currency crisis. For all three countries, the effects of the currency crises on the industrial sector disappear in a longer interval than does the effect of any other economic issue.