We analyze whether the Asian crisis and the terrorist attacks of September 11 caused permanent volatility shifts in the world stock markets. In doing so, we test for the presence of structural breaks in volatility during 1997–2002 by resorting to the iterative cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) algorithm and wavelet-based variance analysis.We find that the number of shifts detected by the two methods decreases substantially when both correlated volatility and inertia are taken into account. Specifically, the ICSS algorithm fails to find any breakpoints, while a wavelet-based variance test detects breakpoints at the high-frequency components of the filtered data.
The central European stabilization efforts of the interwar period, based on fiscal cuts coupled with the adoption of a pegged exchange rate and external support are often portrayed as prototypes defining the necessary conditions for successful stabilizations. While prevalent, the orthodox package was not universal in the period. We examine one exception, the Latvian stabilization of 1921–1922. Commencing from a background of multiple circulating currencies, the stabilization program was money-based, implemented without external assistance and followed rather than accompanied by exchange rate stabilization.
We investigate the impact of home country institutions on the skill level of immigrants to the United States over 1988-1998. Specifically, we explore the hypothesis that institutions are multidimensional and that the different dimensions have conflicting impacts on the migration of skilled labor. Using an exploratory factor analysis on fifteen institutional variables, we identify the following dimensions of institutional character: credibility; transparency; democracy; and the security of civil society. We find that credibility and transparency increase the magnitude of brain drain; security reduces it; and democracy has no significant impact.
The urban inequality in Vietnam has declined in the 1990s. Using the regression-based decomposition methods [Fields, G.S., 2003. Accounting for income inequality and its change: a new method, with application to the distribution of earnings in the United States. In: Polachek, S.W. (Ed.), Worker Well Being and Public Policy, Research in Labor Economics, vol. 22. Elsevier, New Jersey, pp. 1-38; Yun, M.S., 2006. Earnings inequality in U.S., 1969-99: comparing inequality using earnings equations. Review of Income and Wealth 52, 127-144.], we identify the contributing factors and distinguish between changes of the inequality due to changing returns to characteristics and distribution of these characteristics. We find that the changing returns to regional factors and to physical assets are behind the decline in urban inequality. However, the decline hides adverse changes from human capital and unemployment. Policies to encourage regional labor market integration, improve the quality of and equal access to education are important to make the equal urban distribution sustainable in the new millennium.
The number of commercial banks in Russia increased at a fast pace after the 1988 banking reform. Many of these banks lacked supervision and operated with dangerously low funding capital. After the 1995 liquidity crisis, many of these banks disappeared. In this paper, we investigate the determinants of the hazard rates of banks active on the Moscovian deposits market during the 1994–1997 period. We find that market share and duration have negatively affected the hazard rate, while the deposit interest rate has had a positive effect. The market share and interest rate effects are robust to controlling for ‘financial clans’.
This study uses a regression-based framework to identify the key factors that determine the level and changes in main job earnings inequality for men. A number of different inequality measures are used in our work. The analysis uses data for Serbia drawn from eight annual labour force surveys, which cover both the early episode of sluggish transition and a more recent concerted phase of economic reform. It thus provides some useful insights on the evolution of labour earnings inequality through an uneven transitional process and identifies factors likely to retain an influence on earnings inequality as the market reform processes take greater hold.
Using panel data on large Polish firms this paper examines the relationship between corporate control structures, sales growth and the determinants of employment change during the period 1996-2002. We find that privatised and de novo firms are the main drivers of employment growth and that, in the case of de novo firms, it is foreign ownership which underpins the result. Interestingly, we find that being privatised has a positive impact on employment growth but that this impact is concentrated within a range of three to six years after privatisation. In contrast with the findings of earlier literature, we find evidence that there are no systematic differences in employment response to negative sales growth across the ownership categories. On the other hand, employment in state firms is less responsive to positive sales growth. From these combined results we infer that the behaviour of state firms is constrained by both insider rent sharing and binding budget constraints. Consistent with this, we find that privatised companies, three to six years post-privatisation, are the firms for whom employment is most responsive to positive sales growth and as such, offer the best hope for rapid labour market expansion.
Rapid education expansion and rising income inequality are two striking phenomena occurring in China during the transitional period. Using the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data collected in 1997 and 2006, this paper studies how education affects individual earnings during the transitional process. We find that education accounts for only a small fraction of personal earnings and income gap between different groups. We analyze the underlying mechanism of the impact of education on earnings. More educated people tend to enter state-owned sectors, have a low probability of changing jobs in the labor market and work less time; all of these will have a pronounced impact on earning and income inequality. Quantile regression analysis shows that the low-income group's education return rate is lower, which helps little in narrowing income gap. We decompose the earning gap into four factors: population effect, price effect, labor choice effect and unobservable effect. In explaining the earning gap in China, the price effect is more important than the population effect. The labor choice effect is also significant. We conclude that increasing educational expenditure with no complementary measures such as reforming the education system and establishing a competitive labor market helps less in reducing income inequality.