Crime Science

Published by Springer Nature
Learn more about this page
Recent publications
Spatial descriptives. a Map of the central city districts of Oslo. Map:
© Google. Dashed (light gray) lines give city district borders, full (dark gray) lines give “functional city center” borders. b Descriptive plot of the spatial distribution of crime. Mean crime count per 6-h slot and 100-m grid. c Basic spatial distribution of crime all counts per 6 h-slot and 100 m gird. Prediction from basic GAM (Model 1, Table 2). The model includes fixed terms for season dummies, time of day dummies, and linear terms for temperature, rain, and wind. See Table 2 for fixed term estimates, significance of smoothers, and model fit statistics
statistics for the weather predictors: temperature, wind speed, and precipitation. Measured in 6-h slots and displayed separately by time of day and season. Dotted lines give the unconditional mean of the plotted variable
The effect of weather on the spatial distribution of crime. Differences in predictions from models with controls for time of day and season (Models 2a–c, Table 2)
Oslo, the capital of Norway, is situated in a North European cool climate zone. We investigate the effect of weather on the overall level of crime in the city, as well as the impact of different aspects of weather (temperature, wind speed, precipitation) on the spatial distribution of crime, net of both total level of crime, time of day and seasonality. Geocoded locations of criminal offences were combined with data on temperature, wind speed, and precipitation. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) allowed us to map level of and the spatial distribution of crime, and how it was impacted by weather, in a more robust manner than in previous studies. There was slightly more crime in pleasurable weather (i.e. low precipitation and wind speed and high temperatures). However, neither temperature, precipitation nor wind speed impacted the spatial distribution of crime in the city.
Percentage differences between expected and observed numbers of waste incidents (with drop-bars for 95% confidence intervals), December 2019–July 2020
Monthly counts of recorded fly-tipping incidents for 2017, 2018, 2019 and January–July 2020
Changes in fly-tipping incidents in urban, semi-rural and rural areas, January–July 2020 (per 10,000 residents)
Boxplots of monthly changes in local authorities in 2020 relative to 2019
Concentration of fly-tipping by area type
Objective Illegal dumping of household and business waste, known as fly-tipping in the UK, is a significant environmental crime. News agencies reported major increases early in the COVID-19 pandemic when waste disposal services were closed or disrupted. This study examines the effect of lockdowns on illegal dumping in the UK. Method A freedom of information request was sent to all local authorities in the UK asking for records of reported incidents of fly-tipping for before and after the first national lockdown. ARIMA modelling and year-on-year comparison was used to compare observed and expected levels of fly-tipping. Urban and rural local authorities were compared. Results A statistically significant decline in fly-tipping during the first lockdown was followed by a similar increase when lockdown ended. The effects largely cancelled each other out. There was pronounced variation in urban–rural experience: urban areas, with higher rates generally, experienced most of the initial drop in fly-tipping while some rural authorities experienced an increase. Conclusion Waste services promote compliance with laws against illegal dumping. When those services were disrupted during lockdown it was expected that fly-tipping would increase but, counter-intuitively, it declined. This enhanced compliance effect was likely due to increased perceived risk in densely populated urban areas. However, as lockdown restrictions were eased, fly-tipping increased to clear the backlog, indicating temporal displacement.
Near-repeat victimization patterns have made predictive models for burglaries possible. While the models have been implemented in different countries, the results obtained have not always been in line with initial expectations; to the point where their real effectiveness has been called into question. The ability to predict crime to improve preventive policing strategies is still under study. This study aims to discover the limitations to and the success of the models that attempt to predict burglaries based on spatiotemporal patterns of the risk of break-ins spreading in geographic proximity to the initial break-ins. A spatiotemporal log-Gaussian Cox process is contemplated to model the generic near-repeat victimization scenario and adjusted using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) methodology. This approach is highly suitable for studying and describing the near-repeat phenomenon. However, predictions obtained with INLA are quite monotonous, of low variability and do not reproduce well the local and short-term dynamics of burglaries for predictive purposes. The conclusion is that predictive models cannot be restricted exclusively to distance decay risk, but they must be designed to detect other types of spatiotemporal patterns which, among other possibilities, open up the possibility of correlating distant events and clusters. Although other studies have already highlighted this problem, the proposal here is to go one step further and clearly extend the near-repeat spatial patterns to achieve better prediction results.
Monthly police-recorded ASB in England and Wales
Percent difference between observed and expected recorded ASB (shaded = 95% confidence intervals
Change in ASB by police force and lockdown
NLP categorisation of ASB
Questions included in FOI request
Anti-social behaviour recorded by police more than doubled early in the coronavirus pandemic in England and Wales. This was a stark contrast to the steep falls in most types of recorded crime. Why was ASB so different? Was it changes in ‘traditional’ ASB such as noisy neighbours, or was it ASB records of breaches of COVID-19 regulations? Further, why did police-recorded ASB find much larger early-pandemic increases than the Telephone Crime Survey for England and Wales? This study uses two approaches to address the issues. The first is a survey of police forces, via Freedom of Information requests, to determine whether COVID-regulation breaches were recorded as ASB. The second is natural language processing (NLP) used to interrogate the text details of police ASB records. We find police recording practice varied greatly between areas. We conclude that the early-pandemic increases in recorded ASB were primarily due to breaches of COVID regulations but around half of these also involved traditional forms of ASB. We also suggest that the study offers proof of concept that NLP may have significant general potential to exploit untapped police text records in ways that inform policing and crime policy.
The foundational framework for neighborhood control theories of crime
Policy Foci of NOPE and NREC
The Neighborhoods Out of Places Explanation (NOPE)
Despite decades of research into social disorganization theory, criminologists have made little progress developing community programs that reduce crime. The lack of progress is due in part to faulty assumptions in the theory: that neighborhoods are important; that residents are the primary source of control; and that informal social controls are emergent. In this paper we propose an alternative: the neighborhoods out of places explanation (NOPE). NOPE starts with property parcels (i.e., proprietary places), rather than neighborhoods. It focuses on the power and legal author- ity of people and institutions that own property, rather than on residents. It posits that control is intentional and goal driven, rather than emergent. We refer to those who own and control as creators. This small group of elites shape city areas and residents must adapt to the environments that suppress or facilitate crime. We discuss how shifting our focus to creators provides important new implications for theory, research, and policy in criminology.
Categorization of CBGs by K-Means based on the prevalence of different types of problematic parcels. See Table 3 for prevalence of each of the five types of problematic parcels in each of the five types of neighborhoods
Certain places generate inordinate amounts of crime and disorder. We examine how places differ in their nature of crime and disorder, with three objectives: (1) identifying a typology of profiles of crime and disorder; (2) assessing whether different forms of crime and disorder co-locate at parcels; and (3) determining whether problematic parcels explain crime and disorder across neighborhoods. The study uses 911 and 311 records to quantify physical and social disorder and violent crime at residential parcels in Boston, MA (n = 81,673). K-means cluster analyses identified the typology of problematic parcels and how those types were distributed across census block groups. Cluster analysis identified five types of problematic parcels, four specializing in one form of crime or disorder and one that combined all issues. The second cluster analysis found that the distribution of problematic parcels described the spectrum from low- to high-crime neighborhoods, plus commercial districts with many parcels with public physical disorder. Problematic parcels modestly explained levels of crime across neighborhoods. The results suggest a need for diverse intervention strategies to support different types of problematic parcels; and that neighborhood dynamics pertaining to crime are greater than problematic properties alone.
This article explores the routine precautions taken by sex workers (SW) in Switzerland, a country in which sex work is a legal activity. It is based on approximately 1100 h of non-systematic participant observation spread over 18 months and 14 semi-structured interviews with indoor and outdoor SW. The findings show that SW use a series of routine precautions that overlap with the situational prevention techniques for increasing perpetrators' efforts or their perception of the risk of offending, reducing the rewards of the crime, and decreasing the provocations and perpetrators' excuses. Future tests of the efficacy of these routine precautions could help developing specific situational crime prevention techniques for deterring offences against SW.
Inflation-adjusted second-hand market (eBayUK and GumtreeUK) prices and WA stealing counts for PlayStation 4 (a), Xbox One (b), PlayStation 3 (c), Xbox 360 (d), PlayStation Portable (e), Nintendo Wii (f), PlayStation 2 (g), and Nintendo DS (h) consoles between 2012 and 2019
Cumulative faulty adjusted global lifetime sales (millions) and WA stealing counts for PlayStation 4 (a), Xbox One (b), PlayStation 3 (c), Xbox 360 (d), PlayStation Portable (e), Nintendo Wii (f), PlayStation 2 (g), and Nintendo DS (h) consoles between 2012 and 2019
WA Google Trends search interest and WA stealing counts for PlayStation 4 (a), Xbox One (b), PlayStation 3 (c), Xbox 360 (d), PlayStation Portable (e), Nintendo Wii (f), PlayStation 2 (g), and Nintendo DS (h) consoles between 2012 and 2019
Objective To address the gap in the literature and using a novel open-source intelligence web-scraping approach, this paper investigates the longitudinal relationships between availability, value, and disposability, and stealing counts of specific makes and models of gaming consoles. Methods Using data from Western Australia (2012–2019) and focusing on specific makes/models of gaming consoles, the relationships between product-specific stealing counts, availability, value, and disposability were examined using time series and cross-sectional analyses. Results Support was found for a positive relationship between the changing disposability of specific makes/models of gaming consoles over their lifecycle with corresponding stealing counts, above and beyond changes in availability and value. However, when these attributes were analysed statically, both disposability and value were important. Conclusions The results highlight the importance of measuring correlates of ‘hot products’ longitudinally to better understand offenders’ target selection preferences over time—with important implications for theft risk assessment and crime prevention policy and practice. These findings also provide support for the use of similar open-source intelligence web-scraping strategies as a suitable technique for capturing time-specific proxies for product-specific value and disposability.
Background Cryptocurrency fraud has become a growing global concern, with various governments reporting an increase in the frequency of and losses from cryptocurrency scams. Despite increasing fraudulent activity involving cryptocurrencies, research on the potential of cryptocurrencies for fraud has not been examined in a systematic study. This review examines the current state of knowledge about what kinds of cryptocurrency fraud currently exist, or are expected to exist in the future, and provides comprehensive definitions of the frauds identified. Methods The study involved a scoping review of academic research and grey literature on cryptocurrency fraud and a 1.5-day expert consensus exercise. The review followed the PRISMA-ScR protocol, with eligibility criteria based on language, publication type, relevance to cryptocurrency fraud, and evidence provided. Researchers screened 391 academic records, 106 of which went on to the eligibility phase, and 63 of which were ultimately analysed. We screened 394 grey literature sources, 128 of which passed on to the eligibility phase, and 53 of which were included in our review. The expert consensus exercise was attended by high-profile participants from the private sector, government, and academia. It involved problem planning and analysis activities and discussion about the future of cryptocurrency crime. Results The academic literature identified 29 different types of cryptocurrency fraud; the grey literature discussed 32 types, 14 of which were not identified in the academic literature (i.e., 47 unique types in total). Ponzi schemes and (synonymous) high yield investment programmes were most discussed across all literature. Participants in the expert consensus exercise ranked pump-and-dump schemes and ransomware as the most profitable and feasible threats, though pump-and-dumps were, notably, perceived as the least harmful type of fraud. Conclusions The findings of this scoping review suggest cryptocurrency fraud research is rapidly developing in volume and breadth, though we remain at an early stage of thinking about future problems and scenarios involving cryptocurrencies. The findings of this work emphasise the need for better collaboration across sectors and consensus on definitions surrounding cryptocurrency fraud to address the problems identified.
Urban scaling laws and rates per capita. The way in which urban indicators increase with population size depends on the class of the indicator. A Social aspects, such as crime and total wages, increase superlinearly with population size, whereas infrastructural indicators (e.g., road length) increase sublinearly. B In nonlinear scenarios, rates per capita still depend on population size
The population–crime relationship in 12 countries. Different criminology theories expect a relationship between population size and crime, predicting divergent population effects, such as linear and superlinear crime growth. Despite these theoretical disputes, however, crime rates per capita are broadly used by assuming that crime increases linearly with population size
The scaling laws of crime. We find evidence for a nonlinear relationship between crime and population size in more than half of the data sets. In most considered countries, theft exhibits superlinearity, whereas burglary tends to display linearity. In the plot, the lines represent the error bars for the estimated β\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\beta$$\end{document} of each country–crime for two consecutive years; circles denote a lack of nonlinearity plausibility; triangles represent superlinearity, and upside-down triangles indicate sublinearity
Bias in crime rates per capita. When crime increases nonlinearly with population size, we have an artifactual bias in crime rates. The linearity in Portugal makes rates independent of size (left). However, in Denmark (right), because of the superlinear growth, we expect larger cities to have higher crime rates, but not necessarily more crime than expected. For example, though Aalborg and Solrød have similar theft rates, less crime occurs in Aalborg than expected for cities of the same size, based on the model, whereas Solrød is above the expectation
The inadequacy of per capita rankings. Per capita ranking can differ substantially from rankings adjusted for population size, depending on the scaling exponent. In Italy and Denmark, for example, A theft ranks (top) diverge considerably more than the ranks for burglary (bottom). Data points represent cities’ positions in the rankings. B In nonlinear cases, these rankings diverge, as measured via rank correlation
Crime rates per capita are used virtually everywhere to rank and compare cities. However, their usage relies on a strong linear assumption that crime increases at the same pace as the number of people in a region. In this paper, we demonstrate that using per capita rates to rank cities can produce substantially different rankings from rankings adjusted for population size. We analyze the population–crime relationship in cities across 12 countries and assess the impact of per capita measurements on crime analyses, depending on the type of offense. In most countries, we find that theft increases superlinearly with population size, whereas burglary increases linearly. Our results reveal that per capita rankings can differ from population-adjusted rankings such that they disagree in approximately half of the top 10 most dangerous cities in the data analyzed here. Hence, we advise caution when using crime rates per capita to rank cities and recommend evaluating the linear plausibility before doing so.
Much research has shown that the first lockdowns imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with changes in routine activities and, therefore, changes in crime. While several types of violent and property crime decreased immediately after the first lockdown, online crime rates increased. Nevertheless, little research has explored the relationship between multiple lockdowns and crime in the mid-term. Furthermore, few studies have analysed potentially contrasting trends in offline and online crimes using the same dataset. To fill these gaps in research, the present article employs interrupted time-series analysis to examine the effects on offline and online crime of the three lockdown orders implemented in Northern Ireland. We analyse crime data recorded by the police between April 2015 and May 2021. Results show that many types of traditional offline crime decreased after the lockdowns but that they subsequently bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, results appear to indicate that cyber-enabled fraud and cyber-dependent crime rose alongside lockdown-induced changes in online habits and remained higher than before COVID-19. It is likely that the pandemic accelerated the long-term upward trend in online crime. We also find that lockdowns with stay-at-home orders had a clearer impact on crime than those without. Our results contribute to understanding how responses to pandemics can influence crime trends in the mid-term as well as helping identify the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on crime, which can strengthen the evidence base for policy and practice.
Objectives To explore spatial patterns of crime in a small northern city, and assess the degree of similarity in these patterns across seasons. Methods Calls for police service frequently associated with crime (theft, break and enter, domestic dispute, assault, and neighbor disputes) were acquired for a five year time span (2015–2019) for the city of North Bay, Ontario, Canada (population 50,396). Exploratory data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics and a kernel density mapping technique. Andresen’s spatial point pattern test (SPPT) was then used to assess the degree of similarity between the seasonal patterns (spring, summer, autumn, winter) for each call type at two different spatial scales (dissemination area and census tract). Results Exploratory data analysis of crime concentration at street segments showed that calls are generally more dispersed through the city in the warmer seasons of spring and summer. Kernel density mapping also shows increases in the intensity of hotspots at these times, but little overall change in pattern. The SPPT does find some evidence for seasonal differences in crime pattern across the city as a whole, specifically for thefts and break and enters. These differences are focused on the downtown core, as well as the outlying rural areas of the city. Conclusions For the various crime types examined, preliminary analysis, kernel density mapping, and the SPPT found differences in crime pattern consistent with the routine activities theory.
The spread of COVID-19 has prompted Governments around the world to impose draconian restrictions on business activity, public transport, and public freedom of movement. The effect of these restrictions appears to vary from country to country and, in some cases, from one area to another within a country. This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 restrictions imposed in New South Wales (NSW) by the State Government. We examine week-to-week changes in 13 categories of crime (and four aggregated categories) from 2 January 2017 to 28 June 2020. Rather than using the pre-intervention data to make a forecast and then comparing that with what is actually observed, we use a Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) approach to model the entire time series. Our results are broadly in accord with those of other studies, but we find no effect of the lockdown (upward or downward) on domestic assault. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x.
Anti-theft Signage Placed in Treatment Classrooms (A4 page size)
Objective The opportunity for web camera theft increased globally as institutions of higher education transitioned to remote learning during COVID-19. Given the thousands of cameras currently installed in classrooms, many with little protection, the present study tests the effectiveness of anti-theft signage for preventing camera theft. Methods Examined web camera theft at a southern, public university located in the United States of America by randomly assigning N = 104 classrooms to receive either anti-theft signage or no signage. Camera theft was analyzed using Blaker’s exact test. Results Classrooms not receiving anti-theft signage (control) were 3.42 times more likely to exhibit web camera theft than classrooms receiving anti-theft signage (medium effect size). Conclusions Using classrooms as the unit of analysis presents new opportunities for not only future crime prevention experiments, but also improving campus safety and security. Also, preventing web camera theft on campus is both fiscally and socially responsible, saving money and ensuring inclusivity for remote learners.
PwPMI Calls During COVID-19 Pandemic
Absolute Cumulative Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on PwPMI Calls
Drawing upon seven years of police calls for service data (2014-2020), this study examined the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on calls involving persons with perceived mental illness (PwPMI) using a Bayesian Structural Time Series. The findings revealed that PwPMI calls did not increase immediately after the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. Instead, a sustained increase in PwPMI calls was identified in August 2020 that later became statistically significant in October 2020. Ultimately, the analysis revealed a 22% increase in PwPMI calls during the COVID-19 pandemic than would have been expected had the pandemic not taken place. The delayed effect of the pandemic on such calls points to a need for policymakers to prioritize widely accessible mental health care that can be deployed early during public health emergencies thus potentially mitigating or eliminating the need for increased police intervention, as was the case here. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-021-00157-6.
Research suggests that stalking inflicts great psychological and financial costs on victims. Yet costs of victimisation are notoriously difficult to estimate and include as intangible costs in cost–benefit analysis. This study reports an innovative cost–benefit analysis that used focus groups with multi-agency teams to collect detailed data on operational resources used to manage stalking cases. This method is illustrated through the presentation of one case study. Best- and worst-case counterfactual scenarios were generated using the risk assessment scores and practitioner expertise. The findings suggest that intervening in high-risk stalking cases was cost-beneficial to the state in all the case studies we analysed (even if it incurs some institutional costs borne by the criminal justice system or health) and was often cost-beneficial to the victims too. We believe that this method might be useful in other fields where a victim- or client-centred approach is fundamental.
Heat map of the emergency incidents in the first half of 2020 in Antwerp with selected points of interests
Proportion differences phase 0 and phase L2, 2020
Bivariate robust global similarity indices for non-zero event street segments (2020)
Bivariate robust global S-indices for all non-zero street segments, a mutual comparison of the phases in 2019 and 2020
COVID-19 impacts the daily lives of millions of people. This radical change in our daily activities affected many aspects of life, but acted as well as a natural experiment for research into the spatial distribution of 911 calls. We analyse the impact of the COVID-19 measures on the spatial pattern of police interventions. Crime is not uniformly distributed across street segments, but how does COVID-19 affect these spatial patterns? To this end, Gini coefficients are calculated and a proportion differences spatial point pattern test is applied to compare the similarity of the patterns of incidents before, during, and after the first lockdown in Antwerp, Belgium. With only essential mobility being allowed, the emergency call pattern has not significantly changed before, during or after this lockdown, however, a qualitative shift in police officer’s daily work may have had an effect on the daily operation of the Antwerp police force.
Malayan or Sunda Pangolin, Manis javanicus
Trafficked pangolins seized by customs officials. Top: thousands of slaughtered pangolins await burning in a pit after being seized by Indonesia National Police and Wildlife Conservation Society’s Wildlife Crimes Unit (29 April, 2015). Photograph by Paul Hilton. Bottom: Chinese customs officials seize 13.1 tons of pangolin scales from up to 30,000 individual pangolins at the port of Shenzhen (29 November, 2017). Photograph by Echo Huang
Despite the immense impact of wildlife trafficking, comparisons of the profits, costs, and seriousness of crime consistently rank wildlife trafficking lower relative to human trafficking, drug trafficking and weapons trafficking. Using the published literature and current events, we make the case, when properly viewed within the context of COVID-19 and other zoonotic diseases transmitted from wildlife, that wildlife trafficking is the most costly and perhaps the most serious form of trafficking. Our synthesis should raise awareness of the seriousness of wildlife trafficking for humans, thereby inducing strategic policy decisions that boost criminal justice initiatives and resources to combat wildlife trafficking.
It is widely recognised that burglary and theft offence trends have broadly moved in parallel in ‘Western’ market-based countries since the 1950s. Most researchers have focussed on the trend from the early 1990s onwards, when burglary and theft offence rates plummeted. One major proposed explanation for this trend, relates to improved security. This paper draws on the longitudinal variations in reward of electronic consumer goods to propose a complementary account. This argument is supported by criminological theory, empirical evidence, and historical trends of specific property crime offences. The paper concludes by explaining that reward and security operate in partnership to influence the opportunity for crime, which provides an optimal account for burglary and theft offence trends over the last 40 years.
False positive and negative rate vs. decision cutoff by race for linear regression.
Background: The 2021 NIJ recidivism forecasting challenge asks participants to construct predictive models of recidivism while balancing false positive rates across groups of Black and white individuals through a multiplicative fairness score. We investigate the performance of several models for forecasting 1-year recidivism and optimizing the NIJ multiplicative fairness metric. Methods: We consider standard linear and logistic regression, a penalized regression that optimizes a convex surrogate loss (that we show has an analytical solution), two post-processing techniques, linear regression with re-balanced data, a black-box general purpose optimizer applied directly to the NIJ metric and a gradient boosting machine learning approach. Results: For the set of models investigated, we find that a simple heuristic of truncating scores at the decision threshold (thus predicting no recidivism across the data) yields as good or better NIJ fairness scores on held out data compared to other, more sophisticated approaches. We also find that when the cutoff is further away from the base rate of recidivism, as is the case in the competition where the base rate is 0.29 and the cutoff is 0.5, then simply optimizing the mean square error gives nearly optimal NIJ fairness metric solutions. Conclusions: The multiplicative metric in the 2021 NIJ recidivism forecasting competition encourages solutions that simply optimize MSE and/or use truncation, therefore yielding trivial solutions that forecast no one will recidivate.
Revisión sistemática sobre la prevalencia del acoso escolar en menores con daño cerebral adquirido, sin retraso mental, y análisis de las posibles secuelas cognitivo-conductuales Autor: Dr. D. CARLOS CUADRADO GÓMEZ-SERRANILLOS Resumen: El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo realizar una revisión sistemática sobre los efectos del bullying, o acoso escolar, en menores con daño cerebral adquirido, sin retraso mental, y las posibles secuelas que pudiera acarrearse en las víctimas de esta forma de agresión. Para ello, se ha decidido seleccionar investigaciones y artículos científicos publicados entre los años 1990 y 2020, en los que los factores inherentes a las dos circunstancias (Bullying y daño cerebral) estuvieran vigentes. Una vez obtenidos los resultados, la revisión realizada mediante el presente trabajo determina que el acoso escolar hacia menores con daño cerebral queda predispuesto por factores criminológicos, situacionales y psicosociales. Los agresores perciben la discapacidad como algo inferior, diferente, incómoda o que no encaja y puede obligar subliminalmente al rechazo, lo cual, está estrechamente vinculado con la criminología y la protección de víctimas especialmente vulnerables. Palabras clave: acoso, acoso discapacidad, acoso menores, Bullying, daño cerebral, secuelas bullying.
Daily counts of the variables of interest from Jan. 1 to May 24, 2020, compared with the counts observed between 2017 to 2019
Percentage reduction in total crime and public transport passenger numbers observed between Feb. 29 to May 24, 2020, compared to counterfactual estimates based on ARIMA forecasting models
Descriptive statistics for the variables of interest
Daily counts of crimes and public transport passenger numbers from Jan. 1 to May 24, 2020 compared to counterfactual estimates based on ARIMA models estimated using data from Jan. 1, 2017 to Feb. 28, 2020
Estimated percentage change in daily crime rates for a 68.1% reduction in daily passenger numbers, using three time periods
Background This study aimed to determine whether crime patterns in Mexico City changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and to test whether any changes observed were associated with the disruption of routine activities, as measured by changes in public transport passenger numbers. Method The first objective was assessed by comparing the observed incidence of crime after the COVID-19 pandemic was detected in the country with that expected based on ARIMA forecasts based on the pre-pandemic trends. The second objective was assessed by examining the association between crime incidence and the number of passengers on public transport using regressions with ARIMA errors. Results Results indicated that most crime categories decreased significantly after the pandemic was detected in the country or after a national lockdown was instituted. Furthermore, the study found that some of the declines observed were associated with the reductions seen in public transport passenger numbers. However, the findings suggested that the changes in mobility explain part of the declines observed, with important variations per crime type. Conclusion The findings contribute to the global evaluation of the effects of COVID-19 on crime and propose a robust method to explicitly test whether the changes observed are associated with changes in routine activities.
The existing empirical evidence suggests a reduction in aggregate crime as a consequence of the COVID-19 lockdown. However, what happens when lockdown measures are relaxed? This paper considers how the COVID-19 pandemic affects crime rates throughout Mexico when the stay-at-home orders end. We use national crime data from Mexico’s National Public Security System, which reports municipality-level rates on assault & battery, theft & property crime, fraud, drug crimes & extortion, and homicides. Our results show that the majority of crimes follow a U-shaped trend—when the lockdown ends—crimes rise back to pre-pandemic levels.
Poaching is the most direct threat to the persistence of Amur tigers. However, little empirical evidence exists about the modus operandi of the offenders associated with this wildlife crime. Crime science can aid conservation efforts by identifying the patterns and opportunity structures that facilitate poaching. By employing semi-structured interviews and participants observation with those directly involved in the poaching and trafficking of Amur tigers in the Russian Far East (RFE), this article utilizes crime script analysis to break down this criminal event into a process of sequential acts. By using this framework, it is possible account for the decisions made and actions taken by offenders before, during and after a tiger poaching event, with the goal of identifying weak points in the chain of actions to develop targeted intervention strategies. Findings indicate poaching is facilitated by the ability to acquire a firearm, presence of roads that enable access to remote forest regions, availability of specific types of tools/equipment, including heat vision googles or a spotlight and a 4 × 4 car, and a culture that fosters corruption. This crime script analysis elucidates possible intervention points, which are discussed alongside each step in the poaching process.
The Syrian Civil War created an opportunity for increased trafficking of antiquities and has resulted in a renewed awareness on the part of a global audience. The persistence of criminal and organisational networks which facilitate antiquities trafficking networks (ATNs) has been recognised as significant, leading to increased interest in the development of new and improved methods of understanding such networks. While this field of research has traditionally been dominated by relevant areas such as archaeology, law, art and museum studies, there is a noticeable gap in crime prevention research. This paper presents a crime script of Syrian antiquities trafficking networks during the Syrian Civil War which has been generated from open source journalistic data. In creating a broad crime script for such a prevalent issue, this paper aims to demonstrate the need for further crime script analysis and specifically crime prevention research more generally within the study of antiquities trafficking.
Performance of RTM Using PAI as the Forecasting Performance Measure
Pooled proportion of cases accurately predicted by RTM in the top 10% of risk cells. Each box represents the estimate of the proportion within a study and its area is proportional to the weight of the study. The horizontal solid lines represent 95% confidence intervals
Background Several studies have tested the reliability of Risk Terrain Modelling (RTM) by focusing on different geographical contexts and types of crime or events. However, to date, there has been no attempt to systematically review the evidence on whether RTM is effective at predicting areas at high risk of events. This paper reviews RTM’s efficacy as a spatial forecasting method. Methods We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the RTM literature. We aggregated the available data from a sample of studies that measure predictive accuracy and conducted a proportion meta-analysis on studies with appropriate data. Results In total, we found 25 studies meeting the inclusion criteria. The systematic review demonstrated that RTM has been successful in identifying at risk places for acquisitive crimes, violent crimes, child maltreatment, terrorism, drug related crimes and driving while intoxicated (DWI). The proportion meta-analysis indicated that almost half of future cases in the studies analysed were captured in the top ten per cent of risk cells. This typically covers a very small portion of the full study area. Conclusions The study demonstrates that RTM is an effective forecasting method that can be applied to identify places at greatest risk of an event and can be a useful tool in guiding targeted responses to crime problems.
a Predicting Burglary Incidence: Relative number of burglaries compared to the base household in England. b Predicting Burglary Incidence: Relative number of burglaries compared to the base household in Wales
Difference between expected residential burglary rate per 1000 population and the police recorded burglary rate per 1000 population in 2019 within predominantly residential Output Areas (residential buildings as proportion of all buildings ≥ 90%) in Manchester (n = 1105) (map created using OpenStreetMap and ONS output area boundaries using Carto GIS platform)
Expected crime rates that enable police forces to contrast recorded and anticipated spatial patterns of crime victimisation offer a valuable tool in evaluating the under-reporting of crime and inform/guide crime reduction initiatives. Prior to this study, police forces had no access to expected burglary maps at the neighbourhood level covering all parts of England and Wales. Drawing on analysis of the Crime Survey for England and Wales and employing a population terrain modelling approach, this paper utilises household and area characteristics to predict the mean residential burglary incidences per 1000 population across all neighbourhoods in England and Wales. The analysis identifies distinct differences in recorded and expected neighbourhood burglary incidences at the Output Area level, providing a catalyst for stimulating further reflection by police officers and crime analysts.
Shotspotter coverage area in Washington, DC
Example block and buffer, 500 and 1000 feet
Objectives Gun violence can negatively affect business activity at the place-level through a variety of mechanisms. However, estimating this effect is difficult since reported crime data are biased by factors that are also associated with business health. Despite some of its limitations, data from gunshot detection technology has been shown as a new valuable source of data on gun violence (Irvin-Erickson et al. in Appl Geogr 86: 262–273, 2017a). In this study, we use gunshot detection data to explore the spatial relationship between gunshots and business activity at the neighborhood level in Washington, DC between 2010 and 2012. Methods In this exploratory study, we create spatial buffers of 500 and 1000 feet around each block and sum up the total number of gunshots and business births, deaths, sales, and number of employees within these buffers each year and estimate a spatial fixed effects panel model. Results Gunshots within 1000 feet of a block increase the number of business deaths by 4.3% within that buffer on average, and gunshots within 500 feet of a block decrease the total number of service and retail businesses, the number of employees employed by businesses within that buffer, and total sales for those businesses (although not at a statistically significant rate). Gunshots on blocks with the lowest initial levels of gunshots increase business turnover and reduce the total number of businesses present by 0.5%, and gunshots on blocks with the highest initial levels of gunshots cause an increase in the number of business deaths by 7.5%. Conclusion Results suggest that efforts to improve distressed neighborhoods should target both areas with lower and higher pre-existing levels of gunshots.
The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Queensland, Australia
Moran's I correlogram of the residuals from the Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) model. The figure illustrates that error terms were independent, thereby validating the model
Predictors of poaching incidents by recreational fishers in the GBRMP. The bar plot shows the relative importance of the predictor variables. The other graphs are partial dependency plots with 95% confidence intervals for the four most important variables predicting the occurrence of poaching incidents by recreational fishers in the GBRMP. They show the effect of a given predictor on the probability of occurrence of poaching incidents while keeping all other variables at their mean
The map illustrates the spatial risk for poaching in no-take MNPs in the GBRMP based on the relative importance of, and interactions among, the predictor variables identified in Table 1. The insert maps provide a detailed view of the three highest risk areas adjacent to population centers at Cairns, Airlie Beach and Gladstone
Protected Areas (PAs) are spatially representative management tools that impose various levels of protection for conservation purposes. As spatially regulated places, ensuring compliance with the rules represents a key element of effective management and positive conservation outcomes. Wildlife crime, and in particular poaching, is a serious global problem that undermines the success of PAs. This study applies a socio-ecological approach to understanding the opportunity structure of illegal recreational fishing (poaching) in no-take zones in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. We use Boosted Regression Trees to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of poaching risk within no-take Marine National Park zones. The results show that five risk factors account for nearly three quarters (73.6%) of the relative importance for poaching in no-take zones and that temporally varying conditions influence risk across space. We discuss these findings through the theoretical lens of Environmental Criminology and suggest that law enforcement strategies focus on reducing the negative outcomes associated with poaching by limiting the opportunity of would-be offenders to undertake illegal activity.
This article has been retracted. Please see the Retraction Notice for more detail:
Confronted by rapidly growing infection rates, hospitalizations and deaths, governments around the world have introduced stringent containment measures to help reduce the spread of COVID-19. This public health response has had an unprecedented impact on people’s daily lives which, unsurprisingly, has also had widely observed implications in terms of crime and public safety. Drawing upon theories from environmental criminology, this study examines officially recorded property crime rates between March and June 2020 as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute 6-month-ahead forecasts of property damage, shop theft, residential burglary, fraud, and motor vehicle theft rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March through to June. We conclude that, with the exception of fraud, all property offence categories declined significantly. For some offence types (shop stealing, other theft offences, and residential burglary), the decrease commenced as early as March. For other offence types, the decline was lagged and did not occur until April or May. Non-residential burglary was the only offence type to significantly increase, which it did in March, only to then decline significantly thereafter. These trends, while broadly consistent across the state’s 77 local government areas still varied in meaningful ways and we discuss possible explanations and implications.
Governments around the world have enforced strict guidelines on social interaction and mobility to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Evidence has begun to emerge which suggests that such dramatic changes in people's routine activities have yielded similarly dramatic changes in criminal behavior. This study represents the first 'look back' on six months of the nationwide lockdown in England and Wales. Using open police-recorded crime trends, we provide a comparison between expected and observed crime rates for fourteen different offence categories between March and August, 2020. We find that most crime types experienced sharp, short-term declines during the first full month of lockdown. This was followed by a gradual resurgence as restrictions were relaxed. Major exceptions include anti-social behavior and drug crimes. Findings shed light on the opportunity structures for crime and the nuances of using police records to study crime during the pandemic. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-021-00142-z.
2019 dispatched incidents that originate with the public, weighted by total time officers spend on each call type, Philadelphia, PA. See footnote 4
This contribution outlines various spatial and temporal aspects of medical or public-health related calls for service from the public to police in Philadelphia in 2019. These incidents comprise about 8% of the police department’s workload that originates from the public. Calls appear to be highly concentrated in a few areas, and specifically the Center City and Kensington neighborhoods. They are also more likely to occur late afternoon and evening. The article shows that some medical or public health activity initially masquerades as crime or other policing work and some events eventually determined to be police/crime activity can initially appear to be public health related. About 20% of activity in this area does not appear predictable from the initial call type as handled by police dispatch.
Worry about COVID-19 is a central topic of research into the social and economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we present a new way of measuring worry about catching COVID-19 that distinguishes between worry as a negative experience that damages people’s quality of life (dysfunctional) and worry as an adaptive experience that directs people’s attention to potential problems (functional). Drawing on work into fear of crime, our classification divides people into three groups: (1) the unworried, (2) the functionally worried (where worry motivates proactive behaviours that help people to manage their sense of risk) and (3) the dysfunctionally worried (where quality of life is damaged by worry and/or precautionary behaviour). Analysing data from two waves of a longitudinal panel study of over 1000 individuals living in ten cities in England, Scotland and Wales, we find differing levels of negative anxiety, anger, loneliness, unhappiness and life satisfaction for each of the three groups, with the dysfunctionally worried experiencing the most negative outcomes and the functionally worried experiencing less negative outcomes than unworried. We find no difference between groups in compliance and willingness to re-engage in social life. Finally, we show a difference between the dysfunctionally worried compared with functional and unworried groups in perceptions of risk (differentiating between likelihood, control and consequence). This finding informs what sort of content-targeted messaging aimed at reducing dysfunctional worry might wish to promote. We conclude with some thoughts on the applicability of our measurement scheme for future research.
With the increasing prevalence of police interventions implemented in micro hot-spots of crime, the accuracy with which officer foot patrols can be measured is increasingly important for the robust evaluation of such strategies. However, it is currently unknown how the accuracy of GPS traces impact upon our understanding of where officers are at a given time and how this varies for different GPS refresh rates. Most existing studies that use GPS data fail to acknowledge this. This study uses GPS data from police officer radios and ground truth data to estimate how accurate GPS data are for different GPS refresh rates. The similarity of the assumed paths are quantitatively evaluated and the analysis shows that different refresh rates lead to diverging estimations of where officers have patrolled. These results have significant implications for the measurement of police patrols in micro-places and evaluations of micro-place based interventions.
Predicted crime locations according to crime pattern theory
(adapted from Brantingham and Brantingham (1981, p. 42))
Attractive targets are present at different locations during the day (left) and during the night (right), impacting the predicted crime locations at different times of day
Extended crime pattern theory, illustrating the applicability of spatial knowledge during the day (left) and during the night (right)
Objectives Crime pattern theory and the related empirical research have remained rather a-temporal, as if the timing of routine activities and crime plays no role. Building on previous geography of crime research, we extend crime pattern theory and propose that an offender’s spatial knowledge acquired during daily routine activities is not equally applicable to all times of day. Methods We put this extended theory to a first empirical test by applying a discrete spatial choice model to detailed information from the Netherlands on 71 offences committed by 30 offenders collected through a unique online survey instrument. The offenders reported on their most important activity nodes and offence locations over the past year, as well as the specific times they regularly visited these locations. Results The results show that almost 40% of the offences are committed within the neighbourhoods of offenders’ activity nodes, increasing to 85% when including first-, second- and third-order neighbourhoods. Though not statistically significant in our small sample, the results further suggest that offenders are more likely to commit crime in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at the same time of day than in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at different times of day. Conclusion Our extension of crime pattern theory is only tentatively supported. We argue for replication research with larger samples before any firm conclusions are warranted.
Illegal activities concerning terrestrial species (TS) are responsible for a variety of health, environmental, economic and security issues. The majority of academic research associated with species relates to conservation, with few publications specifically investigating the scale of crimes impacting species or how they can be prevented. This article systematically reviews the available evidence about what works to prevent crime against terrestrial species. Of over 29,000 documents that were returned in the first stage of the review, these were filtered to just over 100. The remaining documents were partially or fully read to identify the most relevant documents to include in the final qualitative synthesis. The review results show there is a significant lack of primary research in this area, as only five articles were found that met the study inclusion criteria. The identified articles focus on the effects of two types of situational crime prevention interventions: community outreach and ranger patrol frequency. Community outreach was shown to have a significant impact on local poaching levels, while for patrolling the evidence suggests a positive impact on the discovery of poachers, animal carcasses and poaching paraphernalia, however, the quality of these studies varied greatly. To prevent the further decline of species numbers internationally, more effort should be invested in publicising existing research into the effectiveness of prevention strategies that have not reached the wider scientific audience, as well as the funding and promotion of research into alternate methods of crime prevention.
Objective This research uses crime scripts to understand adult retribution-style image-based sexual abuse (RS-IBSA) offender decision-making and offending in offline and online environments. We explain the crime-commission process of adult RS-IBSA and identify crime intervention points at eight crime script stages. Methods Publicly released court transcripts of adult RS-IBSA prosecution cases (n = 18) in New Zealand from 2015 to 2018 were utilised to examine the crime-commission process of adult RS-IBSA. We analysed the court transcripts thematically at offence-level prior to constructing the crime scripts. Findings The study identified four types of adult RS-IBSA acts including the non-consensual dissemination of a victim’s intimate images, violent cyber sextortion, covert intimate photography, and unauthorised access of a victim’s phone/media. From our analysis, we identified three script tracks and constructed three distinct crime scripts: (1) threats, sextortion and dissemination; (2) unauthorised access of a victim’s mobile device and dissemination; and (3) covert intimate filming. We highlight areas for potential intervention for law enforcement agencies and policy makers to increase deterrence and personal security in online and offline spaces. Conclusion Adult RS-IBSA occurs in a range of dating and domestic contexts. This study develops crime scripts for adult RS-IBSA and advances our understanding of how the Internet/smartphones/digital media translates into virtual crime scenes with opportunities for maximum harm infliction. We offer several policy implications including revising current RS-IBSA legislation and supporting law enforcement agencies with policing online and offline intimate relationship spaces through situational prevention.
Abstract We recently rejected the hypothesis that increases in cybercrime may have caused the international crime drop. Critics subsequently argued that offenders switched from physical crime to cybercrime in recent years, and that lifestyle changes due to ‘leisure IT’ may have caused the international crime drop. Here we explain how the critics misrepresented our argument and do not appear to introduce anything new.
The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically affected social life. In efforts to reduce the spread of the virus, countries around the world implemented social restrictions, including social distancing, working from home, and the shutter-ing of numerous businesses. These social restrictions have also affected crime rates. In this study, we investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the frequency of offending (crimes include property, violent, mischief, and miscellaneous) in Queensland, Australia. In particular, we examine this impact across numerous settings, including rural, regional and urban. We measure these shifts across the restriction period, as well as the staged relaxation of these restrictions. In order to measure impact of this period we use structural break tests. In general, we find that criminal offences have significantly decreased during the initial lockdown, but as expected, increased once social restrictions were relaxed. These findings were consistent across Queensland's districts, save for two areas. We discuss how these findings are important for criminal justice and social service practitioners when operating within an extraordinary event.
This paper presents the findings from a mixed-methods examination of self-protective behaviours (SPBs) adopted by victims of cyber abuse from the rational choice perspective. The data from a sample of the U.S. adults (N=746), members of an online opt-in panel, were analysed to first distinguish the types of SPBs adopted by victims of cyber abuse using a thematic analysis of open-ended responses. We then identified the factors associated with an increased likelihood of adopting SPBs and the specific identified types of SPBs using logistic regression with Bayesian variable selection and a stochastic search algorithm. Of the six identified types of SPBs, adjusting privacy settings was the most commonly reported response, and improving security (e.g. changing passwords, etc.) was the least common SPB. Older victims who reported higher than the average perceived impact from victimisation, were abused by a stranger and experienced either surveillance of their online activities or multiple types of abuse, were significantly more likely to adopt an SPB. Our findings inform strategies for both Internet user education and for preventing cyber abuse victimisation.
Model of the influence of prior activities on location choice. Location choice is a product of both opportunity and knowledge of the opportunity generated during prior activities. The frequency, recency and duration of prior activities affect the reliability of that knowledge; the behaviour (e.g. crime, recreation, work), type of location, and timing involved in prior activities affect the relevance of that knowledge to the location decision
This paper extends Crime Pattern Theory, proposing a theoretical framework which aims to explain how offenders' previous routine activity locations influence their future offence locations. The framework draws on studies of individual level crime location choice and location choice in non-criminal contexts, to identify attributes of prior activities associated with the selection of the location for future crime. We group these attributes into two proposed mechanisms: reliability and relevance. Offenders are more likely to commit crime where they have reliable knowledge that is relevant to the particular crime. The perceived reliability of offenders' knowledge about a potential crime location is affected by the frequency, recency and duration of their prior activities in that location. Relevance reflects knowledge of a potential crime location's crime opportunities and is affected by the type of behaviour, type of location and timing of prior activities in that location. We apply the framework to generate testable hypotheses to guide future studies of crime location choice and suggest directions for further theoretical and empirical work. Understanding crime location choice using this framework could also help inform policing investigations and crime prevention strategies.
Fairness in policing, driven by the effective and transparent investigation and remediation of police misconduct, is vital to maintaining the legitimacy of policing agencies, and the capacity for police to function within society. Research into police misconduct in Australia has traditionally been performed on an ad-hoc basis, with limited access to law enforcement data. This research seeks to identify the antecedents of serious police misconduct, resulting in the dismissal or criminal charge of officers, among a large police misconduct dataset. Demographic and misconduct data were sourced for a sample of 600 officers who have committed instances of serious misconduct, and a matched sample of 600 comparison officers across a 13-year period. A machine learning analysis, random forest, was utilised to produce a robust predictive model, with Partial Dependence Plots employed to demonstrate within variable interaction with serious misconduct. Prior instances of serious misconduct were particularly predictive of further serious misconduct, while misconduct was most prominent around mid-career. Secondary employment, and performance issues were important predictors, while demographic variables typically outperformed complaint variables. This research suggests that serious misconduct is similarly prevalent among experienced officers, as it is junior officers, while secondary employment is an important indicator of misconduct risk. Findings provide guidance for misconduct prevention policy among policing agencies.
Recent studies exploiting city-level time series have shown that, around the world, several crimes declined after COVID-19 containment policies have been put in place. Using data at the community-level in Chicago, this work aims to advance our understanding on how public interventions affected criminal activities at a finer spatial scale. The analysis relies on a two-step methodology. First, it estimates the community-wise causal impact of social distanc-ing and shelter-in-place policies adopted in Chicago via Structural Bayesian Time-Series across four crime categories (i.e., burglary, assault, narcotics-related offenses, and robbery). Once the models detected the direction, magnitude and significance of the trend changes, Firth's Logistic Regression is used to investigate the factors associated to the statistically significant crime reduction found in the first step of the analyses. Statistical results first show that changes in crime trends differ across communities and crime types. This suggests that beyond the results of aggregate models lies a complex picture characterized by diverging patterns. Second, regression models provide mixed findings regarding the correlates associated with significant crime reduction: several relations have opposite directions across crimes with population being the only factor that is stably and positively associated with significant crime reduction.
Crisis and disruption are often unpredictable and can create opportunities for crime. During such times, policing may also need to meet additional challenges to handle the disruption. The use of social media by officials can be essential for crisis mitigation and crime reduction. In this paper, we study the use of Twitter for crime mitigation and reduction by UK police (and associated) agencies in the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. Our findings suggest that whilst most of the tweets from our sample concerned issues that were not specifically about crime, especially during the first stages of the pandemic, there was a significant increase in tweets about fraud, cybercrime and domestic abuse. There was also an increase in retweeting activity as opposed to the creation of original messages. Moreover, in terms of the impact of tweets, as measured by the rate at which they are retweeted, followers were more likely to 'spread the word' when the tweet was content-rich (discussed a crime specific matter and contained media), and account holders were themselves more active on Twitter. Considering the changing world we live in, criminal opportunity is likely to evolve. To help mitigate this, policy makers and researchers should consider more systematic approaches to developing social media communication strategies for the purpose of crime mitigation and reduction during disruption and change more generally. We suggest a framework for so doing.
Projected and actual crime rates for 8 crime types with 95% confidence intervals (lower = Min, upper = Max). First row left a Outdoors assault; First row right, b Personal robberies; Second row left, c Indoors assault; Right d Residential burglary; Third row left e Commercial burglaries; Third row right f Pickpocketing; Last row left g Narcotics; Last row right h Vandalism
The covid-19 disease has a large impact on life across the globe, and this could potentially include impacts on crime. The present study describes how crime has changed in Sweden during ten weeks after the government started to implement interventions to reduce spread of the disease. Sweden has undertaken smaller interventions than many other countries and is therefore a particularly interesting case to study. The first major interventions in Sweden were implemented in the end of week 11 (March 12th) in the year 2020, and we analyze police reported crimes through week 21 (ending May 24th). Descriptive statistics are provided relative to expected levels with 95% confidence intervals for eight crime types. We find that total crime, assaults, pickpocketing and burglary have decreased significantly, personal robberies and narcotics crime are unchanged. Vandalism possibly increased somewhat but is hard to draw any firm conclusions on. The reductions are fairly small for most crime types, in the 5-20% range, with pickpocketing being the biggest exception noting a 59% drop relative to expected levels.
We present a novel exploratory application of unsupervised machine-learning methods to identify clusters of specific crime problems from unstructured modus operandi free-text data within a single administrative crime classification. To illustrate our proposed approach, we analyse police recorded free-text narrative descriptions of residential burglaries occurring over a two-year period in a major metropolitan area of the UK. Results of our analyses demonstrate that topic modelling algorithms are capable of clustering substantively different burglary problems without prior knowledge of such groupings. Subsequently, we describe a prototype dashboard that allows replication of our analytical workflow and could be applied to support operational decision making in the identification of specific crime problems. This approach to grouping distinct types of offences within existing offence categories, we argue, has the potential to support crime analysts in proactively analysing large volumes of modus operandi free-text data—with the ultimate aims of developing a greater understanding of crime problems and supporting the design of tailored crime reduction interventions.
Abstract Adopting and refining O’Brien’s S-constraint approach, we estimate age-period-cohort effects for motor vehicle theft offences in the United States for over half a century from 1960. Taking the well-established late-teen peak offending age as given, we find period effects reducing theft in the 1970 s, and period, but particularly cohort effects, reducing crime from the 1990s onwards. We interpret these effects as consistent with variation in the prevailing level of crime opportunities, particularly the ease with which vehicles could be stolen. We interpret the post-1990s cohort effect as triggered by a period effect that operated differentially by age: improved vehicle security reduced juvenile offending dramatically, to the extent that cohorts experienced reduced offending across the life-course. This suggests the prevailing level of crime opportunities in juvenile years is an important determinant of rates of onset and continuance in offending in birth cohorts. We outline additional implications for research and practice.
Empirical cumulative distribution functions for the time taken to report the assault (a, b for detail), and Manhattan distances to the nearest ambulance station (c) and Emergency Department (d), separated by offence outcome
Descriptive statistics for comparisons between fatal and non-fatal incidents in relation to the three access to emergency medical care proxy variables
Percentage of offences associated with fatal and non-fatal outcomes, for specific situational characteristics
Abstract This research demonstrates the relationship between situational access to emergency medical care and assault lethality, by comparing attempted and completed murders in Greater London, England, over a five-year period (N = 1512 victims). Access to emergency care was operationalised using the time taken to contact emergency services, the distance from the nearest ambulance station, and the distance to the nearest emergency department. Notification lags in excess of 1 h were associated with significantly higher lethality, after controlling for offence and victim characteristics. The distance predictors were non-significant, which could be due to observed distances in our urban setting being overwhelmingly short (
The lack of accessible crime data, especially geolocations, in developing countries often acts as a barrier to identifying environmental or situational factors in high crime areas that might contribute to the facilitation of those crimes. This paper presents a methodology for conducting fieldwork for creating heat maps to identify areas prone to violence against women (VAW) in Corregidora, Mexico. Heat maps were produced based on household survey data. The results were used to select specific high concentration locations to conduct structured observations and inductive visual analysis at street level in order to identify if and what situational factors might influence the perpetration of VAW in those locations. Four broad features were identified in the urban built environment during the site visits linked to the facilitation of opportunities for the commission of VAW: (1) lacking infrastructure, (2) presence of physical obstacles , (3) poor visibility and (4) restricted pedestrian mobility. The paper demonstrates the utility of this method for aiding situational crime prevention strategies in areas where official spatial crime data is unavailable or lacking. This study presents a relatively low cost (although labour intensive) and independent method of aiding crime prevention strategies, which will hopefully be of practical value for organisations in areas with poor crime recording practices and limited access to expensive mapping technologies.
Top-cited authors
Graham Farrell
  • University of Leeds
Nick Tilley
  • University of London
John E. Eck
  • University of Cincinnati
YongJei Lee
  • University of South Florida
SooHyun O
  • Tarleton State University RELLIS