CEPAL review

Publications
"On the basis of a body of empirical research, the authors explore the relationship between agrarian structure and population [in Latin America]. After an introduction in which they present their theoretical and methodological orientation, they describe the current changing trends in agrarian structure, among which are the 'intensification' of the process of the penetration of capitalistic forms into agriculture." They then discuss the relationships between agrarian structure and demographic variables, particularly fertility and migration. In the final section, some guidelines for future research are presented. This paper is a revised version of an evaluation study carried out to assess the contributions of 14 research projects financed by the Programme of Social Research on Population in Latin America (PISPAL).
 
Trends in urban employment policy research and design in Latin America are discussed. "This article is organized into three main parts....The first reviews research and policies in the 1970s, while the second deals with the 1980s. The two periods are set off by different economic conditions and, particularly, by the severe crisis which has affected the region since the beginning of the present decade. Finally, in the third part the nature of the current debate on the subject will be outlined." excerpt
 
Deals with the manner in which the problem presents itself in the United Nations and probes the basic dimensions of this complex, polemical topic of international concern and discourse. -from Journal summaryECLA/UNEP Env & Dev Unit, Santiago, Chile.
 
This is an analysis of the migration of skilled manpower among the countries of Latin America. "The author reviews its causes, possible implications, the characteristics of these flows of skilled migrants, and the relationship between what is to be observed in some countries and the official attitude adopted by their Governments. This examination suggests that the emigration of skilled human resources, regardless of their destination, is invariably a loss for developing countries owing to [migrants] high social value and economic cost."
 
An high official of the UN Population Fund has questioned why men in lower class urban sectors are so irresponsible when it comes to being husbands and fathers. Statistics indicate that these men avoid the obligations typically connected with forming and maintaining a family. Increased rates of illegitimacy and adolescent pregnancy ensue, ultimately followed by the abandonment of families with children. The author analyzes structural changes in Latin America which may influence this type of behavior. Changes in the male role as breadwinner and model for younger generations, as well as male supremacy as a value, are considered. The author concludes that a substantial proportion of these men is simply not fit to be husbands and fathers. A vicious circle exists in which the failure to comply with the obligations associated with these roles weakens the man's authority within the family, which in turn helps to precipitate his abandonment of those obligations. More research is needed on the values, attitudes, and expectations of these lower class urban sector men and the conditions which cause them to be reluctant to assume the obligations of husband and father.
 
For decades, earnings from farming in Latin American countries have been depressed by pro-urban and anti-trade biases in own-country policies and by governments of richer countries favoring their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. These policies have reduced national and global economic welfare, hampered agricultural trade and economic growth, and may well have added to income inequality and poverty in the region. Since the mid-1980s, however, the region has reduced its sectoral and trade policy distortions and some high income countries also have begun reducing market-distorting aspects of their farm policies. This paper synthesizes results from a World Bank research project that provides (a) price comparison based measures of the extent to which national policies have changed farmers‘ price incentives since the 1960s in eight Latin American countries, (b) partial equilibrium indexes of the impact of national farm policies on agricultural trade and economic welfare, (c) general equilibrium estimates of national trade, welfare and poverty effects of global reforms retrospectively since the early 1980s and prospectively as of 2004, (d) comparisons with similar estimates for Asia, Africa and high-income countries, and (e) a discussion of prospects for further pro-poor policy reform of agricultural price and trade policies.
 
China’s economy has expanded by leaps and bounds, with dazzling progress since it first opened to foreign investment and reform in 1978. Over the last 25 years and after a long period of economic autarky the country has emerged as a major player in world trade. Its accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001 was a milestone. China presents both a threat and an opportunity for Latin American emerging markets. On average and despite some exceptions, Latin America is a clear trade winner from Chinese global integration. This chapter studies China’s exporting and importing structure, using a database of 620 different goods. It builds two indices of trade competition to compare Chinese impacts over 1998-2004 on 34 economies, of which 15 are Latin American. The results generally confirm that there is no relevant trade competition between China and Latin America products in the US market. Not surprisingly, countries that export mainly commodities face lower competition, because China is a net importer of raw materials and an exporter of manufacturing products. At the same time, China is a wake-up call. The country has emerged as a major exporter at both the labour-intensive, low technology and, increasingly, at the knowledge-intensive, higher technology end of the product spectrum. It is presenting challenges to all developing countries, and particularly other trade champions like Mexico in nearly all sectors, from textiles to other more value-added industrialised products.
 
This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection as well as empirical evidence on the effects of patent rights. Then, the second part considers the international aspects of IPR protection. In summary, this paper draws the following conclusions from the literature. Firstly, different patent policy instruments have different effects on R&D and growth. Secondly, there is empirical evidence supporting a positive relationship between IPR protection and innovation, but the evidence is stronger for developed countries than for developing countries. Thirdly, the optimal level of IPR protection should tradeoff the social benefits of enhanced innovation against the social costs of multiple distortions and income inequality. Finally, in an open economy, achieving the globally optimal level of protection requires an international coordination (rather than the harmonization) of IPR protection.
 
This article aims to determine whether the geographical pattern of the external trade of foreign-owned enterprises in Brazil differs from that of domestic enterprises and whether, in the case of foreign enterprises, the region of origin of their capital is an important factor in determining that pattern, both in terms of the origin and destination of their imports and exports and with regard to the technological content. The methodology employed was panel analysis, applied to a representative set of enterprises, using trade data broken down by region for 1989, 1997 and 2000.
 
Commodity prices: Estimates of the deterministic-trend (DT) model, with structural breaks a/b
Price indices: Estimates of the DT model, with structural breaks a/b
This paper looks at the evolution of the terms of trade between commodities and manufactures in the twentieth century. A statistical analysis of the relative price series for 24 commodities and of eight indices reveals a significant deterioration in their barter terms of trade over the course of the twentieth century. This decline was neither continuous, nor was it distributed evenly among individual products, however. The data show that the far-reaching changes that the world economy underwent around 1920 and again around 1980 led to a stepwise deterioration which, over the long term, was reflected in a decline of nearly 1% per year in aggregate real prices for raw materials.
 
The environment industry has grown rapidly since the 1980s. This growth is a response to environmental regulations. Due to the relatively early application of these regulations in the US, Europe and Japan, these areas have become competitive producers and exporters of environmental products and services. As the industrial sector has developed, environmental awareness has been raised and competition and international trade in the environment industry has expanded. There is now a clear North/South dimension to international patterns of development of the industry and its trade. Whilst environment industries were established to deal with waste reduction and disposal strategies, there has also been a drive towards cleaner production. The European environment and cleaner technology industries are reviewed in order to establish their competitiveness and the shift between the two different approaches to environmental management: amelioration by environmental industries and prevention by cleaner technologies in process and production. Latin American provides the counter-example, the experience of the environment industry and cleaner production in the South. The nature of the expansion of the industrial environmental management sector is questioned, particularly the composition of the sector and how it is interpreted in different countries. The paper suggests that the environment industry and cleaner technologies should be understood as industries rather than as unquestionably 'environmentally positive' sets of products and services. The paper also addresses the extent to which these industries reveal an information and technology gap in environmental management. This gap may, on the one hand, assist environmental managers in the South, but on the other may lead to a condition of environmental management dependence.
 
Since 1989, Cuba has struggled to recover from the loss of Soviet trade and subsidies. The Cuban government dubbed the period between 1990 and 1994 “A Special Period in Peacetime” in recognition of the 35% decline in GDP. Instead of restructuring its economy, the Cuban government used a bandaid approach that permitted self-employment, raised prices, legalized the dollar, and decreased government subsidies of state enterprises. Although growth resumed in 1994, the Cuban economy never fully recovered to pre-1989 levels of GDP. This paper discusses the investment, trade, and production problems that continue to plague the Cuban economy. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2005
 
The input-output frontier 
GDP and export growth in Latin America and Asia, 1981-2003 (percentage annual change in GDP and real exports of goods and services)
Latin America and Asia: Growth of GDP and of exports of goods and services, 1991-2003 (percentage average annual rates of growth) 
The portfolio effect of export diversification on growth in 1980-2003: a simple flow chart 
Growth of per capita GDP in LAC and fast-growing Asian countries, and some key factors explaining the difference, 1980-2003 (percentage, except for RL and DIV indices)
Standard real business cycle models must rely on total factor productivity (TFP) shocks to explain the observed comovement of consumption, investment, and hours worked. This paper shows that a neoclassical model consistent with observed heterogeneity in labor supply and consumption can generate comovement in the absence of TFP shocks. Intertemporal substitution of goods and leisure induces comovement over the business cycle through heterogeneity in the consumption behavior of employed and unemployed workers. This result owes to two model features introduced to capture important characteristics of U.S. labor market data. First, individual consumption is affected by the number of hours worked: Employed agents consume more on average than the unemployed do. Second, changes in the employment rate, a central factor explaining variation in total hours, affect aggregate consumption. Demand shocks--such as shifts in the marginal efficiency of investment, as well as government spending shocks and news shocks--are shown to generate economic fluctuations consistent with observed business cycles.
 
The corporate world has changed remarkably in the past 10 years. New multinationals are appearing in countries with emerging markets such as Brazil, India, China, South Africa and Mexico, which are not only top recipients of foreign capital, but have fast become major investors themselves. An important part of the remarkable story of emerging multinationals has been the eruption of world-class Latin multinationals (or multilatinas) from Mexico and Brazil, in particular, following the path taken by their Spanish counterparts in the 1990s. In all these cases, classical push and pull factors have been driving their emergence. But a decisive helping hand for these multilatinas over the past decade has been the declining cost of capital. This financial dimension is driving the leap from overseas sales to overseas acquisitions, a phenomenon that will be explored in this article.
 
this paper I highlight the role of three sets of critical contributing factors. First, we must begin with the trauma of the 1980s. The deep recession that most of the countries of the region experienced in the aftermath of the debt crisis is reminiscent in some ways of the Great Depression in the United States during the 1930s. While the Great Depression resulted in a steeper fall in incomes, the recovery was more rapid as well. In the United States, the hardships caused by the Great Depression, and especially the losses suffered by the middle classes, stimulated a set of government programs--collectively known as the New Deal--which greatly expanded the role of the government, established social safety nets, and provided social insurance. In Latin America, the upshot of the debt crisis was a series of reforms that actually served to weaken institutions of social insurance. Employment generally became less secure, and publicly provided safety nets were weakened. Second, as Latin America entered the 1990s it found itself in a world of high macroeconomic volatility, driven in large part by erratic capital flows--or at least magnified by them. The spread of international financial markets and the region's enthusiastic embrace of them left macroeconomic policy dependent on (and often hostage to) the fancies of short-term investors. Key instruments such as fiscal policy and the exchange rate became overwhelmed by the need to manage capital flows and could no longer be targeted on domestic stability. Macroeconomic policy became increasingly divorced from the real economy. This has exacerbated the volatility of economic outcomes both over time and across households. 4 Third, a key shortcoming in Latin America is that social and political institutions have not been adequately...
 
What factors led to the reduction of poverty in Latin America from 1990 onwards? This article looks into the key factors that have played a part in reducing poverty in the region, including, in particular, employment and remuneration for work. With data from household surveys, the authors discuss the ways in which changes in the working age population, in its participation in economic activity, in employment rates and in income from work and other sources affect the per capita incomes of families in the lowest deciles of income distribution and hence in poverty indicators.
 
The paper reviews the various determinant of economic size (population, natural resources and domestic market) that may affect the growth pattern of smaller Latin American and Caribbean countries. All these factors weigh all the more heavily in that trade has become one of the key factors in their economic development, as is demonstrated by the sharp increase in imports and exports since the second half of the 1980s. The central role played by preferential access to the North American and EU markets to diversify their export structure is heightening the importance of price competitiveness, and related macroeconomic policies, in an increasingly integrated and competitive global market.
 
Aunque los trabajos teóricos y empíricos que emplean el concepto de capital humano son muy numerosos, no hay una definición generalmente aceptada de él, y en muchos casos se le identifica con educación formal. En estas páginas se precisará el concepto de capital humano, atendiendo a sus vías de adquisición. Además, en ellas se elabora un indicador internacional que recoge todos los matices que contempla la definición planteada y que, habitualmente, son dejados de lado por los indicadores tradicionales. Así, el indicador propuesto tendrá en cuenta la salud, la educación de tipo formal e informal y la experiencia. El análisis de las dotaciones de capital humano de los países de América Latina y el Caribe pone de manifiesto una situación de atraso con respecto a otras regiones. Sin embargo, cabe precisar que existen grandes diferencias entre países, que se han reducido en las últimas décadas gracias a un proceso de convergencia regional.
 
In the era of globalization, foreign direct investment (FDI) is an essential factor in the development of the economy. In recent years, creating a better investment climate has therefore been a policy priority for many governments, including the Latin American ones. Only a very small group of Latin American countries have attained relative success in attracting quality FDI, however. Conversely, Ireland has achieved impressive results by creating an attractive environment for FDI. The Latin American countries would do well to emulate the Irish experience, especially as regards the approach to establishing competitive advantages and efficiently promoting the country as a market site for FDI.
 
Este artículo busca contribuir al análisis de la información y el conocimiento en América Latina, centrándose en el uso y difusión de las tecnologías de información y comunicación (TIC) en la industria manufacturera argentina. Atiende a dos ejes del tema: el alcance real del uso y difusión de las TIC, y su vinculación con el desempeño general de la empresa (capacidad de innovación, organización del trabajo y competitividad). Caracteriza el uso y difusión de tales tecnologías en la industria argentina, para i) presentar un mapa empírico de su uso y difusión en la industria manufacturera y ii) vincular esa difusión con las capacidades endógenas de las empresas. Postula que la incorporación y uso de estas tecnologías no pueden analizarse al margen del desarrollo de las capacidades endógenas alcanzadas por las empresas. Sobre la base de una encuesta a 246 empresas industriales argentinas, hacer algunas inferencias respecto de la forma en que las empresas argentinas utilizan las TIC, no sólo para mejorar lo que ya hacían, sino para generar nuevo conocimiento.
 
En este artículo se sostiene que la pobreza tiene carácter multidimensional y que el modo como se la define determina tanto las formas de medirla como las políticas para superarla. Tras pasar revista a diferentes definiciones, se señala que hay cierto consenso en que la pobreza es la privación de los activos y oportunidades esenciales a los que tienen derecho todos los seres humanos; se examinan conceptos relacionados con la pobreza, como los de vulnerabilidad, desigualdad, marginalidad, exclusión y discriminación, y se analizan las formas específicas que adquiere la pobreza desde una perspectiva de género. Enseguida, se examina el vínculo entre las definiciones de pobreza y las políticas que se implementan; se relacionan las políticas para enfrentar la pobreza y las políticas de género, y se elabora una tipología que distingue cuatro tipos de políticas con diversos despliegues de acciones, proyectos y programas concebidos para disminuir la pobreza de género.
 
Este articulo tiene como objetivo la elaboracion de un indice de inestabilidad politica (ins) del Brasil entre 1889 y 2009. Dicho indice refleja un conjunto amplio de multiples fenomenos que representan conflictos entre los diversos grupos sociales. Por medio de la presentacion de diferentes definiciones de lo que se entiende por inestabilidad politica en la bibliografia economica y mediante la utilizacion de multiples acontecimientos historicos —golpes de Estado, conflictos civiles, destituciones constitucionales o inconstitucionales y cambios en la composicion del 50% del gabinete de ministros— se obtienen distintos indicadores que se reducen a uno solo gracias a la tecnica del componente principal, para obtener asi un ins del Brasil en el periodo comprendido entre 1889 y 2009.
 
Peru: GDP shares of wages and income from self-employment, 1942-2013 (Percentages)
Peru: share of profits in GDP, 1942-2013 (Percentages)
Some explanatory regressions of the share of wages in GDP
Peru: main functions explaining private consumption, private investment and exports, 1942-2013
This paper begins by reviewing the literature on the relation between economic growth and the functional distribution of income since the time of the classical economists, highlighting the work of Kalecki and the post-Keynesians who develop the growthregimes approach. It reconstructs and analyses statistics on the shares of wages, income from self-employment (or from mixed sources) and profits in Peru’s GDP between 1942 and 2013, and then compares these shares with the averages for Latin America and other economies. The study then makes a comparative analysis of trends in the wage share and rate of growth, and it estimates a simultaneous equations model using three-stage least squares (3SLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM) to determine the growth regime. The conclusion is that growth is wage-led, so distributional policies to increase this component would likely boost the level of economic activity.
 
This article builds series of wage shares in gross domestic product (GDP) for 15 Latin American economies individually and as a group for the period 1950-2010. Using different methodologies, it is established that wage share is non-linear and has undergone two major cycles. The article discusses various authors, especially classic and post-Keynesian thinkers, who have explored the relationship between wage share in GDP and economic activity. It is also shown that the post-Keynesian approach is relevant in explaining that the main variables determining real GDP variations include wage share, gross capital formation and exports of goods and services. However, the contribution of wage share to real output growth has declined from the 1980s onwards.
 
This article analyses the pattern of technical change in the Brazilian economy between 1952 and 2008. A Marx-biased pattern of labour-saving and capital-using change predominated in the period under study. Three phases in the dynamism of technical change can be distinguished, however. The first, from 1952 to 1973, was highly dynamic. In the second, from 1973 to 1991, this dynamism lessened. Lastly, between 1991 and 2008, the dynamism of technical change recovered slightly. The wage share held fairly steady throughout the period. The rate of profit dropped between 1952 and 1991 before rising slightly from 1991 to 2008. The net capital accumulation rate contracted after 1975 because of the decline in the rates of profit and investment. Between 2004 and 2008, the net capital accumulation rate increased.
 
The aim of this paper is to study the economic dynamics of a set of countries of the Americas during the 1955-2003 period. It does this by introducing an alternative concept of economic performance based on the idea of dynamic regimes. These regimes are defined by the level and growth rate of per capita gross domestic product (gdp). By introducing a non-parametric clustering method, the study identifies two main performance clubs whose evolution is studied. One of them, identified as the club of high-performing countries, displays a relatively homogeneous structure. The second group, conversely, presents a high level of dispersion in performances, suggesting the existence of subclusters with a degree of divergence between them. The study also finds that there is mobility between the low- and high-performing groups and that the distance between clusters increases over time.
 
Despite tremendous macroeconomic instability, Brazil's ur- ban income distributions in 1976 and 1996 appear, at first glance, deceptively similar. Mean household income per capita was stagnant, with a minute accumulated growth of 4.3% over the two decades. The Gini coefficient hovered just above 0.59 in both years, and the incidence of poverty (with respect to a poverty line of R$60/month at 1996 prices) was effectively unchanged at 22%. Yet, behind this appar- ent stability, a powerful combination of labour market, de- mographic and educational dynamics were at work, one ef- fect of which was to generate a substantial increase in extreme urban poverty. Using a micro-simulation-based de- composition methodology which endogenizes labour in- comes, individual occupational choices and education deci- sions, we show that the distribution of incomes was being affected, on the one hand, by a decline in average returns to both education and experience and by impoverishing changes in the structure of occupations and labour force participa- tion (all of which tended to increase poverty), and on the other hand by an increase in educational endowments across the distribution and a progressive reduction in dependency ratios (both of which tended to reduce poverty).
 
This article examines the role of the cepal Review in disseminating the thinking of eclac and other currents of analysis concerned with the problems of development. To this end, it examines some of the large collection of articles published in the Review between 1976 and 2008, concentrating on those that most clearly address the permanent concerns of eclac (growth and technical progress, poverty and social inequity, sustainable development, and democracy and citizenship) and grouping them by the editorial team in charge when they were published: Prebisch-Gurrieri, Pinto-Lahera and Altimir-Bajraj. It concludes by presenting and briefly analysing essays published at various times in the cepal Review by Prebisch (1980), Pinto (1976) and Altimir (1994).
 
Top-cited authors
José Antonio Ocampo
  • Columbia University
Manuel R. Agos�n
  • University of Chile
F. Javier Murillo
  • Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
Mariangela Parra-Lancourt
  • United Nations Organization
Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira
  • University of Brasília