On the Fractal Mechanism of Interrelation Between the Genesis, Size and
Composition of Atmospheric Particulate Matters in Different Regions of the
Earth
April 2011
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93 Reads
Experimental data from the National Air Surveillance Network of Japan from
1974 to 1996 and from independent measurements performed simultaneously in the
regions of Ljubljana (Slovenia), Odessa (Ukraine) and the Ukrainian
"Academician Vernadsky" Antarctic station (64{\deg}15'W; 65{\deg}15'S), where
the air elemental composition was determined by the standard method of
atmospheric particulate matter (PM) collection on nucleopore filters and
subsequent neutron activation analysis, were analyzed. Comparative analysis of
different pairs of atmospheric PM element concentration data sets, measured in
different regions of the Earth, revealed a stable linear (on a logarithmic
scale) correlation, showing a power law increase of every atmospheric PM
element mass and simultaneously the cause of this increase - fractal nature of
atmospheric PM genesis. Within the framework of multifractal geometry we show
that the mass (volume) distribution of atmospheric PM elemental components is a
log normal distribution, which on a logarithmic scale with respect to the
random variable (elemental component mass) is identical to normal distribution.
This means that the parameters of two-dimensional normal distribution with
respect to corresponding atmospheric PM-multifractal elemental components
measured in different regions, are a priory connected by equations of direct
and inverse linear regression, and the experimental manifestation of this fact
is the linear correlation between the concentrations of the same elemental
components in different sets of experimental atmospheric PM data.
MODIS-Derived Arctic Land-Surface Temperature Trends
April 2013
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138 Reads
Physical changes across the Arctic are driven in part by variations of
land-surface heat absorption, conduction and re-radiation relative to
solar irradiance. These changes manifest in active layer thickening and
thinning, ground ice and ice wedge melting, thawing of permafrost and
release and storage of carbon, energy fluxes and water. Using the MODIS
sensors on NASA Aqua and Terra from March 2000 through July 2012 we
investigate Arctic land-surface temperature under clear-sky condition
changes and regional variations. Over this period we detect an increase
in the number of days with daytime land-surface temperature above 0
degrees C: an additional 14 days for the decade. There are significant
trends of increasing morning and afternoon land-surface temperatures
with regional variations, on average. Variations in land-surface
temperature are due to heterogeneity of surface material heat capacity
and conduction. In a more general sense this is due to proportions of
bare ground, ice, snow, vegetation, surface hydrology including palsa,
thaw lakes and wetlands and geomorphology relative to the daytime
clear-sky and seasonal variations of solar irradiance.
Preliminary Meteorological Results of a Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation Technique in Southern Italy
January 2011
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49 Reads
A four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) scheme based on a Newtonian relaxation (or “nudging”) was tested using observational asynoptic data collected at a coastal site in the Central Mediterranean peninsula of Calabria, southern Italy. The study is referred to an experimental campaign carried out in summer 2008. For this period a wind profiler, a sodar and two surface meteorological stations were considered. The collected measurements were used for the FDDA scheme, and the technique was incorporated into a tailored version of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). All instruments are installed and operated routinely at the experimental field of the CRATI-ISAC/CNR located at 600 m from the Tyrrhenian coastline. Several simulations were performed, and the results show that the assimilation of wind and/or temperature data, both throughout the simulation time (continuous FDDA) and for a 12 h time window (forecasting configuration), produces improvements of the model performance. Considering a whole single day, improvements are sub- stantial in the case of continuous FDDA while they are smaller in the case of forecasting configuration. En- hancements, during the first six hours of each run, are generally higher. The resulting meteorological fields are finalised as input into air quality and agro-meteorological models, for short-term predictions of renew- able energy production forecast, and for atmospheric model initialization.
The Color of the Sky
October 2012
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6,390 Reads
The color of the sky in day-time and at twilight is studied by means of
spectroscopy, which provides an unambiguous way to understand and
quantify why a sky is blue, pink, or red. The colors a daylight sky can
take primarily owe to Rayleigh extinction and ozone absorption. Spectra
of the sky illuminated by the sun can generally be represented by a
generic analytical expression which involves the Rayleigh function R
≈ 1/λ^4 e(?a/λ^4), ozone absorption,
and, to a lesser extend, aerosol extinction. This study is based on a
representative sample of spectra selected from a few hundred
observations taken in different places, times, and dates, with a
portable fiber spectrometer.
Application of Clausius-Clappeyron Relation (1832) and Carnot Principle (1824) to Earth’s Atmosphere Tricellular Circulation
January 2014
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1,840 Reads
Atmospheric or climate phenomena are usually a combination of elementary events whose scales range from the very small (microscopic) to the infinitely large (synoptic). This means that build reasoning from ground-or space-based observations only, regardless of the physics of elementary processes, inevitably leads to erroneous results. Given the fact that plots of Troposphere Tricellular Circulation are only based on weather mean conditions measured near the ground (i.e.: pressure and winds fields observed at the surface of the earth), we want to improve these representations of the general circulation of the atmosphere, by using both Clausius-Clapeyron Relation and Carnot Principle derived respectively in 1832 and 1824. Indeed, Clausius-Clapeyron relation shows precisely that, unlike the dry water vapor that can be assimilated to the ideal gas at many circumstances, the saturated water vapor has, in an air parcel at the same time cold (temperature below 0.0098˚C) and rich in moisture (vapor pressure above 6.11 mb), thermoelastic properties diametrically opposed to those of ideal gas (including dry water vapor). Vertical profiles of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere provided by ground-or space-based observations lead to the location of a troposphere region in which the ideal gas assumption should be banned: hence appropriate and unique plot of earth's atmosphere tricellular circulation.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Conakry, Republic of Guinea: Analysis and Relationship with Meteorological Factors
January 2021
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117 Reads
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), dates back to December 29, 2019, in Wuhan, China. It quickly spreads like wildfire to all continents in the following months. In Guinea, the first case of COVID-19 and death were all reported respectively on March 12 and April 16, 2020. Since then, several studies have found a relationship between certain environmental conditions such as the meteorological factors to have the potential of contributing to the spread of the virus. Thus, this study aims at examining the extent to which observed meteorological factors might have contributed to the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Conakry, from March 1 to May 31, 2020. Meteorological factors such as temperature (Tmin, Tmean and Tmax) and relative humidity (RHmin, RHmean and RHmax) were analyzed together with the data on the COVID-19. The dynamic of the COVID-19 in Guinea was analyzed along with that of some west African countries. The analysis on the dynamic of the COVID-19 pandemic in West Africa indicated Guinea as one of the most affected countries by the pandemic after Nigeria and Ghana. The study found that in general an increase in the temperature is linked to a decline in the COVID-19 number of cases and deaths, while an increase in the humidity is positively correlated to the number of cases and deaths. Nevertheless, from this study it was also observed that low temperature, mild diurnal temperature and high humidity are likely to favor its transmission. The study therefore, recommends that habitations and hospital rooms should be kept in relatively low humidity and relatively higher temperature to minimize the spread of the (SARS-CoV-2).
Keywords
Conakry, Guinea, COVID-19, Meteorological Factors, Temperature, Humidity
Detection of Approximate Potential Trend Turning Points in Temperature Time Series (1941-2010) for Asansol Weather Observation Station, West Bengal, India
January 2014
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616 Reads
Researches are being carried out worldwide to understand the nature of temperature change during recent past at different geographical scales so that comprehensive inferences can be drawn about recent temperature trend and future climate. Detection of turning points in time series of meteorological parameters puts challenges to the researches. In this work, the temperature time series from 1941 to 2010 for Asansol observatory, West Bengal, India, has been considered to understand the nature, trends and change points in the data set using sequential version of Mann-Kendall test statistic. Literatures suggest that use of this test statistic is the most appropriate for detecting climatic abrupt changes as compared to other statistical tests in use. This method has been employed upon monthly average temperatures recorded over the said 70 years for detection of abrupt changes in the average temperature of each of the months. The approximate potential trend turning points have been calculated separately for each month (January to December). Sequential version of Mann-Kendall test statistic values for the months of July and August is significant at 95% confidence level (p < 0.05). The average temperature for most of the other months has shown an increasing trend but more significant rise in July and August temperature has been recognized since 1960s.
Spatial-Temporal Variations in January Temperature in Pakistan and Their Possible Links with SLP and 500-hPa Levels over the Period of 1950-2000: A Geographical Approach
January 2014
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48 Reads
By making use of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis the spatial and temporal variability was investigated in January over the period of 1950 to 2000 in Pakistan. The analysis is based on the combination of ground observed mean monthly temperature data and National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data of sea level pressure (SLP) and 500-hPa fields. The results reasonably reveal that the variation in January temperature have links with global te-leconnections at SLP and 500-hPa pressure heights. The analysis shows variability at interannual to interdecadal time scale. The interannual variation is more prominent than the interdecadal signal of temperature anomaly. The simulated coefficient patterns show reasonable variation with regional detail from south (north) to north (south) in the study area. The study could be useful as baseline information for climate change studies in Pakistan.
Evaluation of Spatial-Temporal Variability of Drought Events in Iran Using Palmer Drought Severity Index and Its Principal Factors (through 1951-2005)
January 2013
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276 Reads
Intensity and variability of droughts are considered inIranduring the period 1951 to 2005. Four variables are considered:
the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the soil moisture, the temperature
and the precipitation (products used for the analysis are downloaded from the
NCAR website). Link with the climatic indexLa Ninais also considered (NOAA downloadable
products is used). The analysis is based on basic statistical approaches
(correlation, linear regressions and Principal Component Analysis).
The analysis shows that PDSI is highly correlated to the soil moisture and
poorly correlated to the other variables—although the temperature in the warm
season shows high correlation to the PDSI and that a severe drought was
experienced during 1999-2002 inthe country.
Assessment of Long Term UV Radiation Measured by the Brewer Spectrophotometer in Hong Kong during 1995-2005
January 2011
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51 Reads
Time series of daily UV radiation measured by the ground-based Brewer spectrophotometer #115 in Hong Kong during 1995-2005 were studied through statistics analysis, with focus on the variability and long term changes in relation to total ozone, clouds and AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth). The 11-year mean UV daily dose is 2644±262 J/m2, with maxima(3311 J/m2) in 2000 and minima (2415 J/m2) in 2002. The data were compared with that from TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) Version 8 and show general agreement between the two. However, the Brewer UV measurement is about 10% lower compared to TOMS data. Apart from the common-known strong seasonal cycle, 26 month periodical was resolved by use of wavelet analysis, which was believed to be associated with quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of general circulation. In cloudy days, the annual mean UV daily dose decrease 3.5% to 44.5% compared to clear days. It was also found that surface UV irradiance has close relation to air pollution. Under clear sky condition, 1% AOD increase will lead to 0.2% UV decrease. While global UV radiation increase due to the worldwide observed ozone depletion, investigations indicate that this trend is not significant in Hong Kong during the last 11 years. The possible causes can be attributed to the compensative effect from two aspects. One is the increase of UV resulting from the reduction of clouds with rate of 0.56/10 yr. The other is the decrease of UV due to the enhancement of total ozone and AOD with a rate of 4.23 DU/10 yr and 0.33/10 yr, respectively.
Characterizing PM<sub>2.5</sub> Pollution of a Subtropical Metropolitan Area in China
January 2013
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89 Reads
The chemical and physical characteristics of PM2.5, especially their temporal and geographical variations, have been explored in metropolitan Hangzhou area (China) by a field campaign from September 2010 to July 2011. Annual average concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 during non-raining days were 106 - 131 μg.m-3 and 127 - 158 μg.m-3, respectively, at three stations in urban breathing zones, while corresponding concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 at an urban background station (16 mabove ground level in a park) were 78 and 104 μg.m-3, respectively. For comparison, the annual average PM10 concentration at a suburban station (5 mAGL) was 93 μg.m-3. Detailed chemical analyses were also conducted for all samples collected during the campaign. We found that toxic metals (Cd, As, Pb, Zn, Mo, Cu, Hg) were highly enriched in the breathing zones due to anthropogenic activities, while soluble ions (, , ) and total carbon accounted for majority of PM2.5 mass. Unlike most areas in China where sulfate was several times of nitrate in fine PM, nitrate was as important as sulfate and highly correlated with ammonium during the campaign. Thus, a historical shift from sulfate-dominant fine PM to nitrate-dominant fine PM was documented.
Application, Evaluation, and Process Analysis of the US EPA's 2002 Multiple-Pollutant Air Quality Modeling Platform
January 2012
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73 Reads
A multiple-pollutant version of CMAQ v4.6 (i.e., CMAQ-MP) has been applied by the US EPA over continental US in 2002 to demonstrate the model's capability in reproducing the long-term trends of ambient criteria and hazardous air pollutants (CAPs and HAPs, respectively) in support of regulatory analysis for air quality management. In this study, a comprehensive model performance evaluation for the full year of 2002 is performed for the first time for CMAQ-MP using the surface networks and satellite measurements. CMAQ-MP shows a comparable and improved performance for most CAPs species as compared to an older version of CMAQ that did not treat HAPs and used older versions of na-tional emission inventories. CMAQ-MP generally gives better performance for CAPs than for HAPs. Max 8-h ozone (O 3) mixing ratios are well reproduced in the O 3 season. The seasonal-mean performance is fairly good for fine particu-late matter (PM 2.5), sulfate , and mercury (Hg) wet deposition and worse for other CAPs and HAPs species. The reasons for the model biases may be attributed to uncertainties in emissions for some species (e.g., ammonia (NH 3), elemental carbon (EC), primary organic aerosol (POA), HAPs), gas/aerosol chemistry treatments (e.g., secondary or-ganic aerosol formation, meteorology (e.g., overestimate in summer precipitation), measurements (e.g., 2 4 SO 3 NO ), and the use of a coarse grid resolution. CMAQ cannot well reproduce spatial and seasonal variations of column variables except for nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) and the ratio of column mass of HCHO/NO 2 . Possible reasons include inaccurate seasonal allocation or underestimation of emissions, inaccurate BCONs at higher altitudes, lack of model treatments such as mineral dust or plume-in-grid process, and limitations and errors in satellite data retrievals. The process analysis results show that in addition to transport, gas chemistry or aerosol/emissions play the most important roles for O 3 or PM 2.5 , respectively. For most HAPs, emissions are important sources and cloud processes are a major sink. Simulated 2 2 3 H O HNO P P and HCHO/NO 2 indicate VOC-limited chemistry in major urban areas throughout the year and in other non-urban areas in winter, but NO X -limited chemistry in most areas in summer.
An Analysis of Ambient Air Quality Conditions Over Delhi, India From 2004 to 2009
January 2011
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1,428 Reads
We analyzed 1-hour, 8-hour and 24-hour averaged criteria pollutants (NO2, SO2, CO, PM2.5 and PM10) during 2004-2009 at three observational sites i.e. Income Tax Office (ITO), Sirifort and Delhi College of Engineering (DCE) in Delhi, India. The analysis reveals increased pollutant concentrations at the urban ITO site as compared to the other two sites, suggesting the need to better locate hot spots in designing the monitoring network. There is also significant year to year variation in the design value trends of criteria pollutants at these three sites, which may be attributed to meteorological variations and local-level emission fluctuations. Correlations among criteria pollutants vary annually and spatially from site to site, indicating the heterogeneous nature of air mix. The annual ratios of CO/NOx are considerably higher than SO2/NOx confirming that vehicular source emissions are the primary contributors to air pollution in Delhi. The seasonal analysis of criteria pollutants reveals relatively higher concentrations in winter because of limited pollutant dispersion and lower concentrations during the monsoon period (rainy season). The diurnal averages of criteria pollutants reveal that vehicular emissions strongly influence temporal variations of these pollutants. Weekdays and weekend diurnal averages do not show noticeable differences.
Variation of Total Ozone during 24 August 2005 Magnetic Storm: A Case Study
January 2013
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10 Reads
This paper presents the longitudinal
distribution of total ozone along several latitudinal circles from both hemispheres
during a strong geomagnetic storm that occurred on 24 August 2005 after a solar
proton event (the maximum flux of protons with energy > 10 MeV was 1.70 × 107 protons cm-2.day-1.sr-1 on 23 August). For
that, we use average daily values of total ozone observations (=column ozone
amount) in Dobson units for the period 18-25 August 2005 (obtained from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer, TOMS).
The considered storm occurred after a relatively quiet geomagnetic period and
it is not superposed by another perturbation, which permit us to identify
clearly the effects of the geomagnetic storm on total ozone. The results show statistically significant decreases in ozone along the latitudinal
circles 70°N and 70°S (summer and winter), no
statistically significant effects at middle latitudes (40°S) and sparse statistically
significant increases at low latitudes (20°S). The role of some mechanisms to
explain the features observed is considered.
Understanding the Local Carbon Fluxes Variations and Their Relationship to Climate Conditions in a Sub-Humid Savannah-Ecosystem during 2008-2015: Case of Lamto in Cote d’Ivoire
January 2020
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255 Reads
The temporal variations of the Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), the Total Ecosystem Respiration (TER) and the Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), and their responses to meteorological conditions (e.g. temperature, radiative flux and precipitation) at Lamto, in wet savannah region across Côte d’Ivoire are analyzed using GFED-CASA and daily meteorological data recorded over the 2008-2015 period. The study shows the links between these carbon fluxes and climate variability at Lamto that is subject to high anthropogenic pressures and seasonal bushfires. The correlative statistics from multiple regression methods were used to assess the different relationships and show how they change in time. The results show important seasonal variability in the Gross Primary Productivity and the Total Ecosystem Respiration mainly associated with the changes in temperature and radiative flux. In addition, the statistical analysis suggests a high correlation between meteorological conditions and the GPP and TER. These climatic conditions may explain 83% and 79% of the variances of GPP and TER respectively. Moreover, the interannual variability of the Net Ecosystem Exchange indicates that around Lamto, in the subhu-mid savannah, the ecosystem behaves as a carbon sink similar to other West African ecosystems. On the other hand, there is no clear link between the NEE and temperature, radiative flux and precipitation. This lack of connec-tion may suggest a limited response of the NEE interannual dynamics related to the changes in climatic features.
Mesoscale Numerical Study of Quasi-Stationary Convective System over Jeddah in November 2009
January 2013
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837 Reads
25 November 2009 is an unforgettable day for the people in Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). On that day, Jeddah turned into a disaster zone following a short heavy rainfall event that triggered flash floods leaving 122 fatalities and considerable losses. Numerical experiments using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric research mesoscale meteorological model (MM5) have been performed to investigate the event. It was caused by a short quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system that developed over Jeddah and lasted for about 8 hours. Rainfall totals computed by the model exceeded 400 mmin some localities in the southern part of Jeddah city and to the north of Jeddah in Thuwal city. The limited available observed rainfall totals, atKingAbdulAzizInternationalAirportand wadiQaws rain gauges, and Jeddah’s weather radar observations corroborates the ability of the model to reproduce the spatial and temporal characteristics of the rainfall event. A synoptic environment characterized by warmRed Seasurface temperatures and high humidity in the low levels of the troposphere. A stationary anticyclone centered over the southeast of theArabian Peninsulaconcentrated the water vapour flow to a narrow passage over Jeddah. Simulation results suggested that the development of a mesolow by latent heat release, as well as cyclogenesis induced by Al Hejaz escarpments, could have played an important role in enhancing the event by providing low-level convergence and enhanced upslope winds, and upper level atmospheric instability.
Earth’s Atmosphere Prevailing Surface Winds Based on Effectiveness of Mbane Biouele Formula Derived in 2009
January 2014
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65 Reads
Any system designed to simulate the earth's atmosphere general circulation, must necessarily be based on the spatial-or temporal average conditions. Irregularities in the profiles of air motions that we observe on daily weather maps often make lose any real meaning to the general circulation. As complicated and inconsistent that is the daily traffic of air particles, it is interesting to define a general circulation characteristic of the average air transportation around the globe. Indeed, this transport responds to a need to transfer heat from the equator (heat source) to the poles (cold sources). Mbane Biouele formula (2009), derived from Clausius-Clapeyron relation (1832), now allows faithful and unique representation of the tricellular general circulation: Hence, the possibility of access to the earth's atmosphere prevailing surface winds in summer as well as winter.
Analysis of the Meteorological Variables for Puebla City 2011-2012 Applying the Modeling Ion-Wavelets in a Hypothetical Manner
January 2013
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38 Reads
This work presents the results of the analysis of
meteorological variables applying the modeling Ion-Wavelets in a hypothetical manner. In this case the Morlet wavelet transform is used, which is
the result of a huge number of researches made in the80’s
and applied to various physical phenomena derived from natural chaotic
processes; the data were processed using the phenomenon “El Nino” and CO2 (Carbon dioxide) due to the fact that these are the meteorological phenomena
which best adapt to our object of study correlating with distribution of Gauss
and Morlet during the study period in the Puebla Valley.
Atmospheric Blocking in the South Atlantic during the Summer 2014: A Synoptic Analysis of the Phenomenon
January 2015
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210 Reads
Under conditions of atmospheric blocking, the presence of a quasi-stationary anticyclone of large amplitude disrupts the normal eastward progression of the synoptic systems. These blockings correspond mainly to a positive anomaly of the air pressure. As a result, in the regions affected by the blocking occur several consecutive dry days and temperatures above average. This paper aims to discuss synoptically the atmospheric blocking phenomenon occurred in January and February 2014 in the South Atlantic Ocean, affecting especially the Southeastern Brazil and sectors that depend on the quantity of water for their activities in the region, such as agriculture and electricity generation. The significant population concentration makes this area emphatically vulnerable to long periods of drought, especially during the summer, affecting the water supply for the population. In order to achieve this goal, data of geopotential height at 850/500 hPa, streamlines in 850/500 hPa, pressure, temperature, humidity and wind at surface were evaluated through NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis (CFSRv2—Climate Forecast System Reanalysis Version 2) with 0.2˚×2˚× 0.2˚resolu2˚resolu-tion. The analysis showed that the stationary anticyclone was configured dynamically favorable to blocking in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere. Thus, atmospheric pressure at mean sea level presented values above normal combined with high average air temperature. By the cli-matological analysis, it was noted that there were emphatic negative precipitation anomalies over Southeastern Brazil. This atmospheric blocking was characterized as anomalous due to its long duration in a considered rainy season.
Assessment of the Evolution and Socio-Economic Impacts of Extreme Rainfall Events in October 2019 over the East Africa
June 2020
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695 Reads
This study aimed at establishing and quantifying the evolution and socio-economic impacts of extreme rainfall events in October 2019. The study also focused on ascertaining the extent to which the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influenced anomalous rainfall over East Africa (EA) in October 2019. It employed Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) methods to analyze inter-annual variability of EA rainfall and the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) over the Indian and Pacific Ocean with a focus on October to December 2019 rainfall season. The SVD analysis enabled the exploration of the leading modes from the mean monthly rainfall and SSTs leading to the determination of the likely influence of the IOD and ENSO respectively. The first SVD coupled modes, which dominate the co-variability between the October rainfall over the EA domain, and SSTA over the Indian and Pacific Oceans based on 1981 to 2010 climatology indicate the monopole positive co-variability with rainfall over the entire EA domain. The corresponding spatial pattern for the SSTA over the Indian Ocean (IO) recaptures the positive IOD event while the central equatorial Pacific Ocean (i.e., over Niño 3.4 region) reveals a monopole positive loading, a typical signal for the warm phase of ENSO. The positive rainfall anomaly over the EA during October is found to be associated with either the IOD event or ENSO condition events independently or in phase. However, the inter-annual variability between October rainfall over EA and ENSO reveals a moderate relationship (r = 0.4212) while a robust association (r = 0.7084) is revealed with IOD. Comparatively, the October 2019 rainfall anomaly peaks the highest in history over the EA and was found to be coupled with highest positive IOD event in record. Unlikely, the 1997 October rainfall (which peaked the second in history), was associated with the co-occurrence of the positive phase of ENSO and IOD events. The findings of this study suggest that the positive IOD coupled mode had large impact on the distribution and variability of the October 2019 rainfall over the EA region.
Fair Plan 6: Quo Vadis the 80%-Emission-Reduction-By-2050 Plan?
January 2015
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62 Reads
In our Fair Plan 5 paper, we compared the CO2 emissions of the 80%-Emission-Reduction-By-2050 (80/50) Plan with the CO2 emissions of our Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate. We found that the 80/50 Plan reduced CO2 emissions more rapidly than necessary to achieve the principal objective of the Fair Plan: to keep Global Warming (GW) within the 2˚C (3.6˚F) limit adopted by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) “to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. Here, we ask the “What If” question: “What would the GW of the 80/50 Plan be post 2100 if its CO2 emissions post 2100 were kept at their 2100 value?” We find that although the GW of the 80/50 Plan decreases slightly over part of the 21st century, it does not remain constant thereafter. Rather, the GW of the 80/50 Plan begins to increase in 2088, exceeds that of the Fair Plan beginning in 2230, exceeds the 2˚C (3.6˚F) limit of the UNFCCC in 2596, and ends the millennium at 2.7˚C (4.8˚F). Thus, not only does the 80/50 Plan phase out humanity’s CO2 emissions faster than necessary to fulfill the UNFCCC constraint, it also fails that constraint if its CO2 emissions post 2100 are kept at their 2100 value. Accordingly, we believe that the Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate is superior to the 80/50 Plan.
Background Solar Irradiance and the Climate of the Earth in the End of the 20th Century
January 2012
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193 Reads
The possible response of global climate to the changes of background radiation derived from satellite measurement during 1983-2001 is analyzed. Estimation is made by means of one-dimensional energy-balance climatic model. It is shown that the increase of the global surface radiation by 3 W × m –2 through 1983-2001 should result in a corresponding rise of temperature, which exceeds the actual observed values by 0.6˚C-2.0˚C. Possible causes of such disagreement are discussed.
A Late 20th Century European Climate Shift: Fingerprint of Regional Brightening?
January 2013
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99 Reads
We investigate the spatial extent of a statistically highly significant shift in atmospheric temperatures over Europe around 1987-1988 using a boot-strap change point algorithm. According to this algorithm, this change point (average warming of about one degree Celsius) is statistically highly significant (p > 99.9999%). The change point is consistently present in satellite and surface temperature measurements as well as temperature re-analyses and ocean heat content over most of Western Europe. We also find a connection with parts of the North Atlantic Ocean and eastern Asia. Although the time of change coincides with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) going from negative to positive, the consistent warmer temperatures throughout the decades after 1987-1988 does not coincide with a persistent shift of the NAO, as it returns to a neutral/negative in the 1990’s. Furthermore, the shift does not coincide with any other known mode of multidecadal internal climate variability. We argue that the notion of a shift is “spurious”, i.e. the result of a fast change in Europe from dimming to brightening combined with an accidental sequence of cold (negative NAO) and warm (positive) NAO years during this period. The “shift” could therefore be considered as a fingerprint of European brightening during the last few decades.
Study of Formic and Acetic Acids in the Air of Humid Savannah Case of Lamto (Côte d’Ivoire)
January 2016
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135 Reads
From January 1995 to December 2004, 860 rainwater samples were collected in the humid savannah of Lamto. Using the Henry’s law, we determined the content of formic and acetic acids in
the air based on their concentrations in rainwater. The annual partial pressure of both formic and
acetic acids over the decade is variable. It covers a range of 0.003 (1998) to 0.21 ppbv (1996) and
0.27 (1999) to 0.47 ppbv (1996) for formic and acetic acids respectively. Also, the partial pressure
in the dry season is higher than that in the wet season. This difference is related to the enrichment
of the organic acid content in the air by the various sources that produce these acids. One of the
main sources of increment in organic acid is biomass burning. This biomass burning contributes
between 21% and 51% to the formation of the two acids in the humid savannah of Lamto. Ultimately the average annual organic acidity varies from 40% to 60% over the ten years period.
Assessment of Land Use Land Cover Change Drivers and Its Impacts on above Ground Biomass and Regenerations of Woody Plants: A Case Study at Dire Dawa Administration, Ethiopia
January 2018
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1,207 Reads
Abstract
Understanding land use land cover (LULC) change drivers at local scale is vi tal for development of management strategies to tackle further decline of natural resources. In connection to this, a study was conducted in Dire Dawa administration, Ethiopia to investigate the drivers for change in land use land cover and its impact on above ground biomass and regeneration of woody plants. A total of 160 respondents were selected randomly to collect data on drivers of LULC change. A multistage stratified cluster sampling was used for above ground biomass assessment. Nine sample plots of 10 m × 10 m size in each cluster and a total of 36 sample plots in all clusters were randomly established. In all sample plots, woody plants having >5 cm diameter were measured for their diameter at breast height (DBH), and biomass estimated using allometric equation. The study revealed that, cutting of woody plants for fuel wood and making charcoal, population growth, expansion of cultivated land, drought, settlement areas and livestock ranching are the major six important drivers of LULC change. The study also revealed that, the mean above ground biomass of woody plants in Dire Dawa Administration was 4.94 ton/ha, with maximum and minimum above ground biomass of 6.27 ton/ha and 3.90 ton/ha, respectively. The number of regenerants of tree species was low and only 36% of the plots had tree regenerants. Thus, proper woodland management strategies implementation, land use planning, afforestation and reforestation activities are recommended to minimize unprecedented LULC change in the study area.
Keywords Land Use Land Cove Change, Drivers, Above Ground Biomass, Regeneration