Arctic

The surface temperature of sea ice controls the rate of ice growth and heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere. An algorithm for the satellite retrieval of ice surface temperature has recently been published, but due to the lack of validation data has not been extensively tested. In this paper, data from a recent Arctic field experiment is used in an attempt to validate that algorithm. While the procedure is, in principle, straightforward, we demonstrate that validation is complicated by a variety of factors, including incorrectly assumed atmospheric conditions, undetected clouds in the satellite data, spatial and temporal variability in the surface temperature field, and surface and satellite measurement errors. Comparisons between surface temperatures determined from upwelling broadband longwave radiation, spatial measurements of narrow-band radiation, thermocouples buried just below the snow surface, and narrow-band satellite data show differences of 1 to 3 deg. C. The range in these independent measurements indicates the need for specially designed validation experiments utilizing narrow-band radiometers on aircraft to obtain broad spatial coverage.

"This special issue of Arctic represents the output from a conference sponsored by the Coastal Zone Canada Association and organized in large part by Fisheries and Oceans Canada. A number of sponsors also contributed to the success of the conference. The conference, entitled 'Arctic Change and Coastal Communities,' was held from 12 to 16 August 2006 in the town of Tuktoyaktuk in the western Canadian Arctic. This overview was compiled from statements made at the conference by presenters and participants and does not necessarily represent the views of the authors."

"The settling of comprehensive land claims across Canada’s territorial North has brought about substantial changes in governance. Prominent among these has been the establishment of numerous regulatory and co-management boards dealing with land, wildlife, and environmental issues. These boards were explicitly designed to bring significant aboriginal influence to bear in key land and wildlife decisions. To examine whether the boards have enhanced aboriginal participation and influence in these decision-making processes, factors such as the number and influence of aboriginal board members, the extent of board powers, the independence (financial and otherwise) of the boards, and the boards’ willingness and capacity to incorporate traditional knowledge into their operations are considered. Overall, the evidence supports the conclusion that the land-claim boards represent an important vehicle for substantially enhanced aboriginal involvement in and influence over government decisions affecting the wildlife and environment of traditional aboriginal lands."

Of all climatic zones on earth, Arctic areas have experienced the greatest climate change in recent decades. Predicted changes, including a continuing rise in temperature and precipitation and a reduction in snow cover, are expected to have a large impact on Arctic life. Large numbers of birds breed on the Arctic tundra, and many of these, such as shorebirds and passerines, feed on arthropods. Their chicks depend on a short insect population outburst characteristic of Arctic areas. To predict the consequences of climate change for reproduction in these birds, insight into arthropod phenology is essential. We investigated weather-related and seasonal patterns in abundance of surface-active arthropods during four years in the tundra of NW Taimyr, Siberia. The resulting statistical models were used to hindcast arthropod abundance on the basis of a 33-year weather dataset collected in the same area. Daily insect abundance was correlated closely with date, temperature, and, in some years, with wind and precipitation. An additional correlation with the number of degree-days accumulated after 1 June suggests that the pool of potential arthropod recruits is depleted in the course of the summer. The amplitude of short-term, weather-induced variation was as large as that of the seasonal variation. The hindcasted dates of peak arthropod abundance advanced during the study period, occurring seven days earlier in 2003 than in 1973. The timing of the period during which birds have a reasonable probability of finding enough food to grow has changed as well, with the highest probabilities now occurring at earlier dates. At the same time, the overall length of the period with probabilities of finding enough food has remained unchanged. The result is an advancement of the optimal breeding date for breeding birds. To take advantage of the new optimal breeding time, Arctic shorebirds and passerines must advance the start of breeding, and this change could affect the entire migratory schedule. Because our analyses are based on a single site, we cannot conclude that this is a general pattern for the entire Arctic. To investigate the generality of this pattern, our approach should be applied at other sites too.

"The occurrence of high concentrations of anthropogenic contaminants in the Arctic environment has been a concern for many years. The present overview of the current threats of pollutants from atmospheric, oceanic, river, and local pathways uses results from recent national, pan-Arctic, and international reports to emphasize the need to address issues arising from climate change, particularly the effect of changing weather patterns on contaminant transportation via both waterways and the atmosphere. Regional and international actions over the past two decades attempting to manage pollutants in the Arctic environment from landbased sources have produced recommendations that focus primarily on increasing cooperation in research and monitoring activities, not only among the Arctic governments themselves, but also including the interests and resources of non-polar countries. Our Canadian perspective on the domestic and circumpolar context of the issue, with regard to mechanisms exerting immediate control on the spread of contaminants, describes national programs and policies that are important to the Canadian North and to the Arctic community as a whole. All levels of Canadian government, as well as foreign governments, have joined in working towards safeguarding the Arctic and other marine environments. Prioritization of concerns is an important approach to tackling the numerous current issues related to the spread of contaminants in the Arctic environment. The government needs to give increased priority to the North, and that action needs to be taken in partnership with local communities and pursued at the regional, national, and international levels."

"In 1976, Inuit leaders in what is now Nunavut began the long process that led to a comprehensive land claim to regain control of their lives and land. Previously, they had seen their economic, social, political, educational, and belief systems diminished and the people disempowered by the imposition of Western systems, structures, and practices. To reverse the existing relations, Inuit leaders had to call upon the ideologies and institutions of the dominant society—a process greatly misunderstood by Inuit harvesters and others within the communities. The disconnect between Inuit harvesters’ expectations of the Nunavut Land Claim Agreement (NLCA) and the realities experienced in the communities have made ocean resource management a site of growing resistance in the North. Common misconceptions were that the Nunavut Government would be an Inuit government and that land-claim 'compensation' would involve per capita distributions and injections of cash into the hunters and trappers’ organizations. Instead, communities were expected to abide by the decisions of the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board—a tripartite joint-management arrangement between the federal and territorial governments and Inuit organizations—and to cooperate with the increasing demands from government departments and science researchers for local information and participation. The community response to these impositions was to obscure the gaze of inquiring governments and outsiders through creative acts of resistance. To mediate the situation, increased involvement from federal and territorial resource managers in terms of support, capacity building, information exchange, and federal/territorial/community relationship building is encouraged."

"The Chipewyan Dene or Denesoaine have long been dealing with variability in the movements of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus). Many generations ago, Denesoaine hunters learned that by observing caribou at key water crossings during the fall migration, they could obtain critical information about caribou health, population, and movement patterns. Systematic observation of these indicators by hunters strategically organized along the tree line enabled the Denesoaine to adapt their harvesting practices, including the location of family camps, to maximize harvest success. While this system of observation was developed for traditional subsistence harvesting, its techniques could be usefully applied today to other natural resource management contexts. In particular, such monitoring might help us understand how new bifurcation points created by mineral resource development may be affecting the Bathurst caribou herd. As governments, communities, and academics search for ways to include traditional knowledge in decision making for resource management, this paper recognizes that the Denesoaine and other indigenous peoples have their own systems of watching, listening, learning, understanding, and adapting to ecological change."

"Arctic communities are recently reporting warmer and shorter winters, which have implications for the ice season and, consequently, on the access to local territories and resources by members of these communities. These climatic shifts are resulting in increased risks for travel during the winter season associated with less stable and thinner ice. An integrated community-based monitoring (ICBM) program was developed in Nunavik to generate adaptation tools to support safe access to land and resources and to enhance local adaptive capacity through participation in community-based monitoring activities. The Nunavik ICBM approach brings together partners (northern communities, Canadian universities, and various organizations) that have different perspectives on the issues surrounding land and resources in Nunavik. The ICBM project also brings together traditional knowledge and scientific knowledge, linking data collected through semi-structured interviews, local ethnocartographic interviews, and ice-monitoring activities with data gathered at weather stations. The partnership-based Nunavik ICBM program dealing with territory and resource access is an example of communities and scientists working together to improve our understanding of climate change impacts in the North, their importance for aboriginal people, and the ways in which an integrated, cooperative research process can develop local adaptive capacity."

"Climate warming and resource development could alter key Arctic ecosystem functions that support fish and wildlife resources harvested by local indigenous communities. A different set of global forces--government policies and tourism markets--increasingly directs local cash economies that communities use to support subsistence activities. Agent-based computational models (ABMs) contribute to an integrated assessment of community sustainability by simulating how people interact with each other and adapt to changing economic and environmental conditions. Relying on research and local knowledge to provide rules and parameters for individual and collective decision making, our ABM generates hypothetical social histories as adaptations to scenario-driven changes in environmental and economic conditions. The model generates projections for wage employment, cash income, subsistence harvests, and demographic change over four decades based on a set of user-defined scenarios for climate change, subsistence resources, development, and government spending. Model outcomes assess how scenarios associated with economic and climate change might affect the local economy, resource harvests, and the well-being of residents for the Western Arctic Canadian community of Old Crow, Yukon. The economic and demographic outcomes suggest implications for less quantifiable social and cultural changes. The model can serve as a discussion tool for a fuller exploration of community sustainability and adaptation issues."

Prudent use of agricultural fertilizers and herbicides is paramount for sustaining or improving surface and ground water quality in Subarctic regions, but little information is available that documents the loss of chemicals from agricultural lands in the Subarctic. This study aimed to ascertain more clearly how time of application and land management practices affect the loss of bromide and metribuzin in a Subarctic soil. Potassium bromide (KBr), a surrogate for nitrate, and metribuzin, commonly used to control broadleaf weeds, were applied in the autumn of 1996 and the spring of 1997 to a silt loam that had been subjected to conventional tillage (CT), minimum tillage (disk once [DO]), and no tillage (NT) since 1983. Superimposed on the tillage treatments were the removal or retention of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) stubble and loose straw. Loss of these chemicals was ascertained by sampling the soil profile at the time of heading of barley, before freeze-up of the soil in autumn, and after spring thaw until September 1998. Tillage and residue treatments did not influence the recovery of autumn-applied or spring-applied Br. However, recovery of Br diminished with time: about 30% of the Br applied in autumn and 45% of that applied in spring remained in the soil profile by September 1998. Tillage, but not residue, treatments influenced the recovery of metribuzin. Recovery of metribuzin at the termination of this study was 6% or more in NT soil and 2% or less in CT and DO soil; greater recovery in NT soil was presumably a result of slower degradation in NT than in CT and DO. This study suggests that bromide (and thus nitrate)and metribuzin are more prone to leaching when applied in autumn and that tillage practices affect retention of metribuzin, but not nitrate, in the soil of Subarctic Alaska.

"A major objective of the Cree and Inuit in signing the 1975 James Bay and Northern Quebec Agreement was to protect the environment and thus secure their way of life based on harvesting activities. The main elements of the federal, provincial, and Agreement environmental protection regimes are compared with respect to principles derived from the growing literature on indigenous peoples and environmental assessment. The Agreement contained pioneering provisions for environmental assessment; yet those provisions have not met many of the expectations of the Native people. Part of the dissatisfaction derives from the Agreement itself: some sections are vague and difficult to translate into practices; the advisory committee structures are not well suited to Native cultures; and the right to develop is woven throughout the sections on environmental protection. However, failures and delays in implementing the Agreement have also contributed to this dissatisfaction. These issues have implications for the negotiation strategies of other groups."

Recent studies have demonstrated a striking correspondence between air mass frequencies and the position of the North American forest border. Analysis by principal component techniques demonstrates that relative abundance of certain species in a number of kinds of plant communities found in central northern Canada is strongly correlated with the frequencies of given air mass types. The conclusion is reached that distribution and frequency of occurrence of at least a number of species found in the plant communities of that region are markedly influenced by climate. In addition, the result can be interpreted as evidence supporting the continuum theory of species distribution in vegetation of the region.

Permafrost is a widespread phenomenon in the northern parts of North America and Eurasia, and in Antarctica. Between 40 and 50 per cent of Canada's total land surface of 3.8 million square miles is underlain by permafrost. The total land area of the U.S.S.R. exceeds 8 million square miles of which 47 per cent is underlain by permafrost (Tsytovich 1958). Because of the great extent of this phenomenon knowledge of its distribution is of vital concern to both countries. RES

"This study presents modern erosion rate measurements based upon vertical aerial photography captured in 1955, 1979, and 2002 for a 100 km segment of the Beaufort Sea coastline. Annual erosion rates from 1955 to 2002 averaged 5.6 m a-1. However, mean erosion rates increased from 5.0 m a-1 in 1955–79 to 6.2 m a-1 in 1979–2002. Furthermore, from the first period to the second, erosion rates increased at 60% (598) of the 992 sites analyzed, decreased at 31% (307), and changed less than ± 30 cm at 9% (87). Historical observations and quantitative studies over the past 175 years allowed us to place our erosion rate measurements into a longer-term context. Several of the coastal features along this stretch of coastline received Western place names during the Dease and Simpson expedition in 1837, and the majority of those features had been lost by the early 1900s as a result of coastline erosion, suggesting that erosion has been active over at least the historical record. Incorporation of historical and modern observations also allowed us to detect the loss of both cultural and historical sites and modern infrastructure. U.S. Geological Survey topographic maps reveal a number of known cultural and historical sites, as well as sites with modern infrastructure constructed as recently as the 1950s, that had disappeared by the early 2000s as a result of coastal erosion. We were also able to identify sites that are currently being threatened by an encroaching coastline. Our modern erosion rate measurements can potentially be used to predict when a historical site or modern infrastructure will be affected if such erosion rates persist."

"Over the last 100 years, there have been major changes in the way Iñupiaq villages in Alaska have procured fresh water for drinking and other human uses. Since the 1960s, major funding has been provided by local, state, and federal agencies to install centralized water systems in these villages. These systems have arrived with great expectations, and yet many of them have a myriad of problems due to harsh weather conditions, low winter temperatures, and permafrost. Other obstacles to success of the water systems arise from local preference for traditional water resources. On the Seward Peninsula, some villages rely heavily on centralized water systems, while others continue to rely more heavily on traditional water sources. We demonstrate in this paper that local variables, including different environmental factors and a sense of agency in the modernization process, affect local choices about whether or not to use the centralized water systems. We conclude that local, culturally specific ideas about health and acceptable drinking water quality must be taken into account for these projects to be successful."

"Subsistence fisheries,as distinct from commercial and recreational, exist throughout much of the Canadian North and satisfy local needs for fish protein. These fisheries have been investigated quantitatively only since the 1970s. Many of these studies are in the grey literature; methods of study and reporting are not standardized, and interpretation of data is often problematic. Nevertheless, some generalizations can be offered from a preliminary survey of harvest study data from 93 communities and from 10 regional studies representing Labrador, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, British Columbia and the Northwest Territories. The data indicate a wide range of harvest values, clustering at about 60 kg of whole fish per capita per year. If these data are representative, there is a significant subsistence fishery sector important for the local economies of hundreds of communities. Most of these fisheries are not being reported in fishery statistics, nor are they being monitored and assessed."

"Subsistence research in contemporary communities in rural Alaska is revealing the important contribution of fish species other than salmon to the food supply, yet the subsistence use of non-salmon species has had a low profile in management and regulatory regimes of the fisheries in Alaska. Management concerns arose when a developing northern pike (Esox lucius) sport fishery occurred in an area with preexisting subsistence uses of pike stocks. The Minto Flats subsistence pike fishery has been part of Minto villages subsistence economy throughout the century, whereas sport fishing for pike in Minto Flats is comparatively recent, coinciding with the growth of the nearby regional center of Fairbanks. The identification of a preexisting subsistence fishery combined with field research to record harvest levels, geographic areas used, and seasonality of harvest contributed to a management plan that enabled conservation and harvest of the resource. Knowledge about the subsistence fishery allowed regulations to be established that provided for compatible uses of the pike fishery by subsistence and sport fishermen by segregating the fisheries in time and place and employing standard management tools."

A preliminary palynological study of the Healy Lake area in east-central Alaska is reported upon. Interpretations extend to 4,600 radiocarbon years BP. With the minor exception of pine, pollen profiles show no trends that can be interpreted as environmentally-induced departures from modern conditions, percentages at depth being similar to those for surface samples. Therefore it is tentatively concluded that no major changes in vegetation occurred in conjunction with late Thermal Maximum and Neoglacial climatic changes. There is some indication that lodgepole pine has migrated towards the area from the southeast during the Holocene.

The fossil remains of one invertebrate and 16 vertebrate genera have been recovered from late Quaternary sediments of a large placer gold mine in east-central Alaska. Forty-six of 1055 fossils were recovered in situ from nine stratigraphic units at the Lost Chicken Creek Mine, Alaska. The fossils range in age from approximately 1400 yr BP (Alces alces) to greater than 50 400 yr BP (Equus[Asinus]lambei, Rangifer tarandus, Ovibovini cf. Symbos cavifrons, and Bison priscus). Sediments at Lost Chicken Creek consist of 37 vertical m of sandy silt, pebbly sand, gravel and peat of fluvial, colluvial and eolian origins. Four episodes of fluvial deposition have alternated sequentially throughout the late Wisconsinan with periods of eolian deposition and erosion. Solifluction has created a disturbed biostratigraphy at the site, yielding a fauna that must be considered a thanatocoenosis. -from Author

"Statistical relations were obtained to describe the association between forest fires and climate for the Dawson and Mayo fire management districts, central Yukon Territory. Annual fire incidence, area burned, and seasonal fire severity rating were compared with summer observations of mean temperature, total precipitation, mean relative humidity, and mean wind speed. The relations were obtained by multiple regression and combined with regional scenarios of future climate from general circulation models. The strongest statistical associations for fire occurrence and area burned were with temperature and precipitation at Dawson. Depending on the scenario, the statistics suggest that the average annual fire occurrence and area burned may as much as double by 2069, but there may still be years with few fires. The maximum number of fires may increase by two thirds over present levels, and the maximum area burned per summer may increase to more than three times the present value. Without incorporating changes in climate variability into the scenarios, the year-to-year variability in number of fires is not projected to increase, but the range in area burned per summer may rise by about 15%."

"Government resource decisions in the Arctic typically involve complex issues; multiple criteria are used to choose among alternatives. This complexity is even greater with petroleum development because of concerns about national energy security, environmental impacts, and economic development. Two decision-aiding techniques may help decision makers clarify their decisions to themselves, the stakeholders, and the general public. The Russian qualitative technique seeks to reduce the number of criteria and find alternative options that may be better than the initial ones. The Western quantitative technique seeks to measure the decision makers judgement about the utility and certainty of each option. These techniques are applied to two case studies: a decision about gas pipeline routing on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia, and a tool for evaluating applications for development permits on the North Slope of Alaska. The qualitative method is easier to use and may be the best model for people who use numbers infrequently or want to make a claim based on rights. The quantitative method did well at preserving detail and incorporating uncertainty. Both approaches helped to reduce the apparent complexity of the decisions."

RES

"Climate change will be an important issue facing Arctic areas in the coming decades since climate models are projecting warmer and wetter conditions for many northern regions. From a hydrological perspective, critical issues include a shortened snow cover season, changes in winter snow cover properties, and changes in the timing and volume of snowmelt runoff. To assess the impacts of projected temperature and precipitation changes on the hydrology of a small Arctic headwater basin, the distributed hydrological model WATFLOOD was used in conjunction with selected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and future climate scenarios. It was found that the hydrological model simulated basin runoff adequately either with input climate data collected in the study area or with input data from a long-term climate station located approximately 50 km south. WATFLOOD was then used to predict future runoff using GCM outputs for the 2040- 69 and 2070-99 time periods. The results gave dates of first and peak runoff that were, on average, up to 25 days earlier than in current (1961-90) climate. In addition, future runoff and evaporation volumes increased by up to 48% as a result of projected increases in temperature and precipitation. Furthermore, a large number of simulated years showed midwinter melt periods, which will have major impacts on snowpack properties and, in turn, on human, animal, and plant life in this region."

"The anti-whaling campaign has been with us for about two decades by now, and, not surprisingly, the arguments against whaling have changed during these years. The ecological argument that whales are endangered is losing ground and the Scientific Committee of the International Whaling Commission (IWC) had made it clear that stocks of certain whales species can sustain a regulated harvest. "During the last few years, moral and ethical questions of whaling have come to the forefront. Recently organizations that hitherto have claimed to be concerned solely with ecological issues, have questioned ethics of harvesting whales. Whales have come to hold a special place in the animal kingdom. "Three fundamental questions will be addressed in this paper. First, the process by which whales are turned into symbols taking on the character of totems will be discussed. In their zeal to protect this totem animal against all 'consumptional' use, whalers and eaters of whale-meat are often depicted as savages. Rhetoric will be the second aspect of the paper. Finally, it will be discussed why whales have such great potential as a symbol to an ever-increasing number of people, particularly in the West."

"Freshwater lake environments are affected by disturbances on several scales that influence the composition of biological communities. A volcanic eruption is an abrupt and severe disturbance, and evidence of its impact is seen in lake sediments and soils as a layer of ash. These volcanic deposits affect aquatic ecosystems in lakes: large volumes of tephra can literally smother organisms living at the sediment-water interface, though the thinner layers of ash deposited farther from the source may have more subtle impacts. A less catastrophic, more gradual disturbance affecting aquatic ecosystems is climate change. Variations in temperature and precipitation over time indirectly influence the aquatic environment and have the potential to alter species composition and abundance."

Re-evaluates sixty years' oceanographic data from the Arctic Ocean, examining nearly 300 deep-water stations, and using the "core-layer" method of Wust to interpret the movement of the Atlantic layer. Stations are grouped in 16 areas and the average curve for each group plotted on a temperature-salinity diagram. Temperature and salinity changes which take place in the Atlantic water while and entity in the Arctic Basin are graphed. The temperature maximum is reduced by about 3.5 C, and the salinity at max. temperature is reduced by about 0.2 %. Superimposed on the T-S relationship is an arbitrary scale indicating percentage retention of the original characteristics. The velocity of the Atlantic layer is found (from current velocity, eddy coefficients and station data) to range 1-10 cm/sec and values of Kz (vertical eddy coefficient) generally to range 1-20 sq cm/sec. Percentage retention of characteristics from the T-S diagram is mapped to suggest a relation between the flow of Atlantic water and bathymetry, distance, time, as well as the T-S features. Assuming the velocity along the core to be 3 cm/sec, the constant vertical eddy coefficient to be 10 sq cm/sec, and with other assumptions on temperature distribution, an estimate of 8,000,000 sq cm/sec is obtained for the constant lateral eddy coefficient.

"Polar bears depend on sea ice for survival. Climate warming in the Arctic has caused significant declines in total cover and thickness of sea ice in the polar basin and progressively earlier breakup in some areas. Inuit hunters in the areas of four polar bear populations in the eastern Canadian Arctic (including Western Hudson Bay) have reported seeing more bears near settlements during the open-water period in recent years. In a fifth ecologically similar population, no changes have yet been reported by Inuit hunters. These observations, interpreted as evidence of increasing population size, have resulted in increases in hunting quotas. However, long-term data on the population size and body condition of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay, as well as population and harvest data from Baffin Bay, make it clear that those two populations at least are more likely to be declining, not increasing. While the ecological details vary in the regions occupied by the five different populations discussed in this paper, analysis of passive-microwave satellite imagery beginning in the late 1970s indicates that the sea ice is breaking up at progressively earlier dates, so that bears must fast for longer periods during the open-water season. Thus, at least part of the explanation for the appearance of more bears near coastal communities and hunting camps is likely that they are searching for alternative food sources in years when their stored body fat depots may be depleted before freeze-up, when they can return to the sea ice to hunt seals again. We hypothesize that, if the climate continues to warm as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), then polar bears in all five populations discussed in this paper will be increasingly food-stressed, and their numbers are likely to decline eventually, probably significantly so. As these populations decline, problem interactions between bears and humans will likely continue, and possibly increase, as the bears seek alternative food sources. Taken together, the data reported in this paper suggest that a precautionary approach be taken to the harvesting of polar bears and that the potential effects of climate warming be incorporated into planning for the management and conservation of this species throughout the Arctic."

Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) on the south-central Canadian Arctic Islands (Prince of Wales, Somerset, and Russell islands) declined by 98% sometime between 1980 and 1995-a near-total loss of a known genetically distinctive group of Arctic Island caribou. In contrast, caribou on the adjacent Boothia Peninsula seemingly increased by 38% from 1985 to 1995, while experiencing heavy annual hunting pressure. Our evaluation leads us to three primary conclusions. 1) It would have been biologically impossible for the estimated 1985 population on Boothia Peninsula (4831 ± 543 SE caribou one year old or older) to sustain the estimated annual harvest of 1100 one year old or older animals without continual annual ingress of caribou from beyond Boothia Peninsula. Our analysis of the 540 possible combinations of population parameters indicates that at any size within ± 2 SE of the 1985 estimate (3745-5917 caribou one year old or older), the Boothia Peninsula caribou population would have gone to "mathematical extirpation": 99% of the combinations by 1995 and 100% by 1999. 2) The continued unsustainable level of harvest was masked by the annual winter infusion of migrant caribou onto Boothia Peninsula from Prince of Wales, Somerset, and Russell islands. 3) Caribou persisted on Boothia Peninsula, but only because of the simultaneous near elimination of the Arctic Island caribou ecotype in the Prince of Wales, Somerset, and Russell islands geographic population. This caribou resource cannot be properly conserved without adequate monitoring and periodic estimates of population sizes and annual harvest rates throughout the entire Prince of Wales, Somerset, and Russell islands-Boothia Peninsula complex.

Reports results of re-appraisal and interpretation of data from 74 oceanographic stations (of >400 occupied), listed according to vessel and source. Surface water occupies the uppermost 200 m It is almost continuously supplied by continental runoff from Siberia which mixes with and collects saline water, to a few hundred times its original volume, as it crosses the arctic shelf seas. The surface water then flows directly to the exit from the basin between Spitsbergen and Greenland. Three layers of surface water are distinguished, on the basis of temperature and salinity features. Variations and ranges within each layer are thought the result of geographic location, presence of ice cover, seasonal changes, convection , and advection. Lowest layer, from 100 m down to the Atlantic water, shows evidence of mixing with the subsurface layer, as well as evidence of continuous replenishment. Prevalence of the cold subsurface layer in this basin is explained by a proposed model, which recognizes the submarine canyons, notably the Svyataya Anna in the Kara Sea, as important factors in mixing and cooling and as primary sources of subsurface water.

It was probably around the year 2000 when I had an epiphany. A realization, after years of sitting on the fence, that the changes unfolding in the Arctic were too persistent, and too coherent among different parts of the system, to be simply dismissed as natural climate fluctuations. Seven years have passed, and despite imprints of natural variability , the Arctic has continued along a warming path. The emerging surprise is the rapidity of change. In many ways, it seems that reality has exceeded expectations, and that our vision of the Arctic's future is already upon us. The most visually striking evidence of rapid change is the Arctic's shrinking sea ice cover. While climate models tell us that sea ice extent should already be declining in response to greenhouse gas loading, observed trends are much steeper - we are perhaps 30 years ahead of schedule. Climate models also tell us that largely as a result of sea ice loss, Arctic warming will be outsized compared to the rest of the northern hemisphere. However, this so-called Arctic Amplification is already here. The signal appears to be firm, and growing in strength. In turn, the Greenland ice sheet seems to be stirring in ways quite unexpected ten years ago, with disturbing implications for sea level rise. Why is the Arctic changing so rapidly? What are the missing pieces of the puzzle? Given where we stand today, might we realize a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean as soon as 30 years from now? This Nye lecture will attempt to shed some light on these issues.

"Adaptation to climate change is recognized as an important policy issue by international bodies such as the United Nations and by various national governments. Initiatives to identify adaptation needs and to improve adaptive capacity increasingly start with an assessment of the vulnerability of the system of interest, in terms of who and what are vulnerable, to what stresses, in what way, and what capacity exists to adapt to changing risks. Notwithstanding the scholarship on climate change itself, there are few studies on the nature of Arctic communities vulnerability to climate-change risks. We review existing literature on implications of climate change for Arctic communities, develop a conceptual model of vulnerability, and present an analytical approach to assessing climate hazards and coping strategies in Arctic communities. Vulnerability is conceptualized as a function of exposure to climatic stresses and the adaptive capacity to cope with these stresses. The analytical framework employs place-specific case studies involving community residents and integrates information from multiple sources, both to document current exposures and adaptations and to characterize future exposures and adaptive capacity."

"Can local observations and indigenous knowledge be used to provide information that complements research on climate change? Using participatory research methodology and semi-directed interviews, we explored local and traditional knowledge about changes in sea ice in the area of Sachs Harbour, Northwest Territories. In this small Inuvialuit community, we interviewed all of the 16 community members and elders considered to be local experts on sea ice to ask about their observations. We organized their comments under the headings multiyear ice, first-year ice, fractures and pressure ridges, breakup and freezeup seasons, and other climate-related variables that influence sea ice (such as changes in winter, spring and summer temperatures, wind, rain, and thunderstorms). Observations were remarkably consistent in providing evidence of local change in such variables as multiyear ice distribution, first-year ice thickness, and ice breakup dates. The changes observed in the 1990s were said to be without precedent and outside the normal range of variation. In assessing the relevance of Inuvialuit knowledge to scientific research on climate change, we note some of the areas in which sharing of information between the two systems of knowledge may be mutually beneficial. These include the analysis of options for adapting to climate change and the generation of research questions and hypotheses for future studies."

"From June 1992 to July 1993, research on wildlife harvesting and subsistence relations was conducted among a sample of householders in the Inuit community of Holman. In an earlier paper, the authors examined the involvement of younger Inuit in subsistence hunting, noting that despite the sweeping political, social, and economic changes that have been experienced in Holman and across the Canadian North, hunting remained an important sociocultural and economic activity for some members of the sample group. This paper focuses specifically on the informal socioeconomic aspects of subsistence in Holman. Using primary data from the 1992-93 sample, we examine the range of economic mechanisms employed by Holman Inuit for the distribution of wild resources and compare the present range of such activity to that observed by Stefansson, Jenness, Rasmussen, and Damas in their work on Copper Inuit food sharing. These data indicate 1) that the sharing form most frequently cited ethnographically, obligatory seal-sharing partnerships, is more irregular than formerly; and 2) that voluntary, nonpartnership based sharing remains an important element in the contemporary economic system."

"Research conducted with the communities of Arctic Bay and Igloolik in Nunavut identified key areas where policy can help Inuit reduce their vulnerability to climate change, focusing on the renewable resource harvesting sector. The policy responses are based on an understanding of policy development and decision making and on an understanding of the processes that shape vulnerability, which in Nunavut comprise the erosion of traditional Inuit knowledge and land-based skills, the weakening of social networks, and a reduction in harvesting flexibility. Policies relating to cultural preservation, wildlife comanagement, and harvester support can serve as entry points for influencing these processes. Our recommendations fall within the mandates of the Government of Nunavut and the institutions created under the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement, and they have been identified as policy priorities by communities and Inuit organizations."

"Ecosystem-based management (EBM) first requires the identification of spatial units capturing the ecosystem structure and functions. To this end, the Arctic Council has adopted the Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) framework. Ecosystem experts have identified 17 Arctic LMEs and mapped them for monitoring and assessment purposes. We provide an overview of their major ecological features. The ecosystem approach has also been developed nationally, with EBM initiatives undertaken as part of the national ocean policy frameworks and actions plans of the United States and Canada. A case study of the Beaufort Sea Large Ocean Management Area (LOMA) established for integrated ocean management purposes shows how Canada’s national spatial framework is being implemented at the subregional level. A comparison of this framework to the international LME that overlaps it in the Canadian waters of the Beaufort Sea demonstrates that both approaches are based on the same principles and criteria, and aim at the same goal: giving primary consideration to the marine ecosystem when managing activities. The two approaches are complementary because they are applied at different spatial and governance levels: regional (Arctic-wide) and subregional (in Canadian Arctic waters). A multi-level spatial framework, science-based management tools, and a governance structure are now available to managers in the Beaufort Sea pilot region; now managers must put in the effort needed to make EBM operational and address the complex environmental issues facing the Arctic."

"The first and strongest signs of global-scale climate change exist in the high latitudes of the planet. Evidence is now accumulating that the Arctic is warming, and responses are being observed across physical, biological, and social systems. The impact of climate change on oceanographic, sea-ice, and atmospheric processes is demonstrated in observational studies that highlight changes in temperature and salinity, which influence global oceanic circulation, also known as thermohaline circulation, as well as a continued decline in sea-ice extent and thickness, which influences communication between oceanic and atmospheric processes. Perspectives from Inuvialuit community representatives who have witnessed the effects of climate change underline the rapidity with which such changes have occurred in the North. An analysis of potential future impacts of climate change on marine and terrestrial ecosystems underscores the need for the establishment of effective adaptation strategies in the Arctic. Initiatives that link scientific knowledge and research with raditional knowledge are recommended to aid Canada’s northern communities in developing such strategies."

"It is now a policy requirement that traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) be incorporated into environmental assessment and resource management in the North. However, there is little common understanding about what TEK is, and no guidance on how to implement the policy in public arenas where knowledge claims must be tested. The problems are inconsistent and unclear definitions of TEK, and insufficient attention to appropriate methods of organizing and presenting it for assessment and management purposes. TEK can be classified as knowledge about the environment, knowledge about the use of the environment, values about the environment, and the knowledge system itself. All categories are required for environmental assessment, but each must be presented and examined differently. TEK and Western science provide partially different information, based on different sets of observations and procedures, and sometimes on different knowledge claims. It is important that TEK be comprehensible and testable as a knowledge claim in public reviews, and usable for ongoing public monitoring and co-management processes. To this end, certain procedures are recommended for recording, organizing, and presenting TEK, with particular emphasis on the need to differentiate between observation and inference or association. Documenting TEK as recommended usually requires trained intermediaries, but they in turn require the support and cooperation of those who have TEK. One consequence is that it is often both impractical and inappropriate to require development proponents to incorporate TEK into their environmental impact statements. However, the environmental assessment process must facilitate the use of TEK in the public review phase."

"Increasingly, federal environmental guidelines require developers to consider the traditional knowledge of aboriginal people in assessing the impact of proposed projects on northern environments, economies, and societies. However, several factors have limited the contributions of traditional knowledge to environmental impact assessment (EIA) in the North, including confusion over the meaning of this term, who owns this knowledge, and its role in EIA. The term indigenous knowledge, which comprises traditional and nontraditional, ecological and nonecological knowledge, is proposed as an alternative that should allow aboriginal people, and the full scope of their knowledge, to assume integral roles in EIA. Experience gained in attempting to give aboriginal people a voice and an assessment role in the diamond mine proposed by BHP Diamonds Inc. at Lac de Gras in the Northwest Territories has led to the development of a multiphased, holistic approach to involving aboriginal people and their knowledge in EIA. Because of their in-depth knowledge of the land, aboriginal people have a particularly important role to play in environmental monitoring and distinguishing project-related changes from natural changes in the environment. However, the strengths of traditional and Western scientific knowledge in EIA will not be realized until both are recognized as parts of a larger worldview that influences how people perceive and define reality."

"This essay has two aims: to advocate Cree engagement in polar bear management and to remind resource managers, environmental non-governmental organizations, researchers, and academics that the Cree are a sovereign people with aboriginal and treaty rights that are affirmed and recognized in the Canadian Constitution. Although we do not claim to be objective, we do recognize—as Latour did that all ways of knowing are socially constructed and influenced. We thus situate our subjectivity by stating that our perspective is not supported by any oil company, hunting proponent, or nonprofit environmental group."

Three cairns on northernmost Novaya Zemlya identified as possible rock-pile graves by Russian investigators in 1977 and 1988 were located and inspected for human remains. These cairns are in the area visited by Dutch seafarers between 17 and 22 June 1597, after their wintering on Novaya Zemlya, and may contain the body of Willem Barents. Barents and one of his crewmen died on 20 June 1597 while the winterers were on landfast ice close to shore. Previous research on Spitsbergen and contemporary reports on the efforts of 16th and 17th century Dutch seafarers to prepare a Christian grave led us to conclude that the deceased probably were buried on the beach, possibly in a shallow grave or a snowbank. Inspection of the area indicates that this grave probably was destroyed by high (5+ m asl) wave run-up during storms, cryogenic erosion, and animals (polar bear, fox). None of the cairns, or any of several other prominent rock piles in the ~180 km long search area, contained human remains or had lichen growths that would indicate construction ~400 years ago (>2 cm, Rhizocarpon sp.). Cairns were not reported by the Dutch in 1594-98, and most of those encountered on northern Novaya Zemlya probably date from exploration after ca. 1860, when the region north of ~76°N became accessible in a warming, post-Little Ice Age climate

"Flow alterations related to hydroelectric development have affected both the fish stocks and the Cree Indian subsistence fishery in the lower LaGrande River, northern Quebec. Evaluated against several years of baseline data, thei nitial biological impact of the project on fish populations, mostly whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) and cisco (C. artedii), appeared to be relatively small. Nevertheless, fishing activity in the lower river and the estuary largely ceased from 1979 to 1981, due to physical modifications of traditional fishing areas and other social and economic effects related to the hydro project. Some fishermen modified their methods and continued harvesting in the affected area, but others abandoned the affected area and fished lakes and rivers along the recently constructed road network. It is concluded that earlier impact assessments fell short of predicting these impacts."

"Conservation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in Canada is based on the goals and principles of the 1973 International Agreement on the Conservation of Polar Bears and Their Habitat, and has long been considered an exemplar of science-based wildlife management. However, accelerating social and ecological changes in the Arctic raise questions about the polar bear management regime’s ability to adapt successfully to new challenges. We apply the analytic framework of the policy sciences to develop a comprehensive orientation to this evolving situation, and we suggest possible ways to define and advance shared goals of stakeholders and other participants. We conclude that the decision process in polar bear management does not sufficiently foster identification and securing of common interests among participants who express multiple, competing perspectives in an arena that has been increasingly fragmented and symbolically charged by issues such as the recent listing of polar bears under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The fundamental challenge for polar bear conservation in Canada is to design a better decision process so that it can constructively reconcile the various perspectives, demands, and expectations of stakeholders."

"Since the 1990s, Inuit traditional knowledge (Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit) has taken on a substantial role in polar bear management in the Canadian territory of Nunavut through its direct use in quota-setting procedures. A co-management conflict has arisen from an increase of hunting quotas in January 2005 for Inuit living in the Baffin Bay and Western Hudson Bay polar bear population areas. The quotas were based on Inuit observations and their conclusion that these polar bear populations had increased. Scientific information suggests that climate change has concentrated polar bears in areas where humans are more likely to encounter them, but that the populations are in decline as a result of overhunting and climate-change effects on demographic rates. During consultations with wildlife managers and through other interviews in 2005, Inuit indicated their lack of support for quota reductions. Discussions with Inuit reveal two categories of problems that, though couched in the polar bear management issue, involve the co-management system and the integration of Inuit and scientific knowledge more generally. The first relates to direct observations of the environment by both Inuit and scientists and the synthesis of such information. The second relates to Inuit conceptualizations of human-animal relationships and the incorporation of scientific studies and management into that relationship. These problems reveal that differences between Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit and scientific knowledge are not fully understood and accounted for within the co-management system and that the system does not effectively integrate Inuit cultural views into management."

"Information gained through Native experience is combined here with scientific measurements to describe aspects of the wintertime oceanography of the Eskimo Lakes and Mackenzie River delta regions of the Canadian Beaufort Sea. The experiences of Jimmy Jacobson, a Tuktoyaktuk elder who lived in this region for over 70 years, were used as the basis for scientific planning and measurement. We focus on phenomena of special relevance to winter travel and fishing in four specific examples of Native insight guiding scientific inquiry. First, we examine local knowledge of ice characteristics and fish abundance in terms of tidal dispersion and its effect on mixing patterns during winter. Second, we relate the maintenance of a small ice-free area, used by caribou as a salt lick, to the vertical heat flux associated with flow through narrow channels. Third, we look at potentially dangerous episodes of overflooding of snow and ice in the nearshore zone in midwinter, caused by strong westerly winds, through the analysis of oxygen isotope distributions in ice cores. Fourth, we discuss the important influence of wind direction on ice conditions, lead formation, and brine production in semi-enclosed coastal bays. Finally, we note certain circulation features of ecological significance relevant to concerns about development and the transport of pollutants. We conclude that by not requiring agreement between indigenous knowledge and Western science, or ranking one above the other, we can realize the values of each approach. Specifically, indigenous knowledge can provide direction to scientific inquiry, while Western science can be used to measure, model, and predict where development or change might have the most serious impact."

"The oil and gas sector is returning to the Mackenzie Delta–Beaufort Sea region of Canada’s western Arctic after a decade-long absence. If brought into production, the hydrocarbon resources in this region could generate significant long-term economic and social benefits for Canadians in general and for Northerners in particular. An evolving regulatory environment, the impacts of climate change, and a lack of infrastructure, however, are creating unanticipated challenges for industry and regulators alike. In addition, aboriginal and other northern stakeholders are largely supportive of oil and gas activity, but only provided they have assurances that communities will benefit and that any negative impacts will be mitigated. Regulators, industry, and stakeholders are, therefore, working closely together to ensure that resource management balances economic, environmental, and social considerations."

The Bluefish Caves, northern Yukon, Canada, have yielded evidence of pre-Holocene human occupation of eastern Beringia. The three caves at Bluefish contain a large and complex late Pleistocene fauna in situ. Our research on the mortality patterns and the paleoethology of Equus lambei (an extinct species of horse), a dominant component of the Bluefish assemblages, was based on the dental remains. Mortality profiles for Equus lambei indicate that predators were the likely primary agents of bone accumulation at Cave I, while Caves II and III appear to have accumulated bones through accidental or natural deaths, probably regularly monitored by humans and other predator/scavengers. Paleoethological reconstruction for E. lambei supports the suggestion that the Bluefish Basin was not a polar desert during the late Pleistocene. Finally, the use of tooth height/age tables to establish age profiles of fossil equid populations is demonstrated to be limited to establishing broad, relative age categories.

"This paper analyzes how traditional knowledge (TK) is used by two of the co-management and regulatory boards established under the comprehensive land-claim agreements in Canadas territorial North: the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board (NWMB) and the Mackenzie Valley Environmental Impact Review Board (MVEIRB). A comparison of the defining characteristics of Western Weberian bureaucracy, which sets the framework within which these and other boards operate, and central tenets of traditional northern Aboriginal culture highlights the oftentimes stark incompatibilities between what amount to different worldviews. Both boards are shown to have made substantial and sincere efforts at incorporating TK into their practices. The NWMB, with its wildlife-focused mandate, is better able to accommodate TK in its work than is the MVEIRB, which deals with complex legal regulatory issues. Both, however, are limited in their capacity to fully incorporate TK into their operations by the exigencies of the modern bureaucratic state."

"Many descriptions of lifestyle in the western subarctic region have been built on the premise that the hunting and use of moose was a central feature of those lifestyles. While this may be true, it is worthwhile to question the time depth that underlies this adaptation and the degree to which it may have applied to former societies inhabiting the boreal forest region. Any such effort must include an analysis of available faunal remains from archaeologic sites in that region. A consideration of the faunal record suggest that the intensive utilization of moose is relatively new in the western boreal forest, or at least was not widely characteristic of the late Holocene period. Thus, it cannot be assumed that the archaeologically designated late prehistoric Athapaskan tradition was isomorphic with modern subsistence regimes. To the degree two which large game played a central role in Athapaskan lifestyle it was caribou, rather than moose, that seems to have dominated in the northern ecotonal region. Fish and small game seem to have dominated in importance in the southern coastal forest region, with a mixed subsistence economy characteristic of the central region. Historical factors, primarily involving widespread fires, habitat disturbance and impacts on predators, seem to be most responsible for the increase in moose numbers during the past century. The role of fire is particularly critical and may have had great influence on the nature and stability of past subsistence regimes in the boreal forest region, including impacts on both large and small game."

HE THAWING effect of water in contact with permafrost is a problem of major concern to engineers engaged in northern construction. Improper drainage or disrupted natural drainage, which allows water to pond adjacent to or under structures such as buildings, roads, or airstrips, usually results in an increased depth of thaw of the perennially frozen ground. In many cases the performance of the structure is seriously affected - sometimes failure has resulted. The degradation of permafrost by water is of even greater con- cern when dykes or dams are constructed on perennially frozen ground and large areas are covered by the water impounded behind these embankments. The design and performance of these structures and the stability of the underlying foundation material is dependent on a knowledge of the rate at which thawing will take place and the depth to which the perennially frozen ground will thaw. One method of improving knowledge of the thawing effect of water on permafrost and of providing some guidance for future engineering design is to study the present level of permafrost under natural bodies of water in the north, such as lakes and streams. An investigation to determine the distribu- tion of permafrost under and adjacent to a lake in the Mackenzie Delta near the new townsite of Inuvik, N.W.T. was carried out by members of the Divi- sion of Building Research in April 1961. This study, although limited in scope, yielded interesting results, which are now reported. Some aspects of the thawing effect of water The occurrence and movement of surface and subsurface water exerts an important influence on the thermal regime of the ground. Because of the heat storage capacity of water, its movement from one area to another pro- vides the means to transfer substantial amounts of thermal energy. Moving or standing bodies of water that accumulate an excess of thermal energy inhibit the formation of permafrost and cause thawing of the underlying frozen ground.

"Subsistence fisheries,as distinct from commercialand recreational, exist throughout much of the Canadian North and satisfy local needs for fish protein. These fisherie have been investigated quantitatively only since the 1970s. Many otfh ese studies are in the 'grey literature' methods of study and reporting are not standardized, and interpretation of data is often problematic. Nevertheless, some generalizations can be offered from a preliminary survey of harvest study data from 93 communities and from 10 regional studies representing Labrador, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, British Columbia and the Northwest Territories. The data indicate a wide range of harvest values clustering at about 60 kg of whole fish per capita per year. If these data are representative, there is a significant subsistence fishery sector for the local economics of hundreds of communities. Most of these fisheries are not being reported in fishery statistics, nor are they being monitoreda nd assessed."