Applied Economics and Finance

Published by Redfame Publishing
Online ISSN: 2332-7294
Publications
Article
This paper presents a simple model that displays a joint determination of income inequality and intergenerational mobility affected by redistributive taxation. The model shows that a larger redistribution improves equality and utility and enhances mobility when the poor are financially constrained, however it creates a trade-off between the rich and the poor in terms of utility when the poor are financially unconstrained. The model also shows that the size of the redistribution as well as wage inequality play key roles in explaining the cross-country differences in inequality and mobility among OECD countries.
 
Figure A4.2: Canada-Net Government Debt as Share of GDP
Article
Fiscal responsibility laws are institutions with which multiple governments in the same economy -- national and subnational -- can commit to help avoid irresponsible fiscal behavior that could have short-term advantages to one of them but that would be collectively damaging. Coordination failures with subnational governments in the 1990s contributed to macroeconomic instability and led several countries to adopt fiscal responsibility laws as part of the remedy. The paper analyzes the characteristics and effects of fiscal responsibility laws in seven countries -- Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, India, and Peru. Fiscal responsibility laws are designed to address the short time horizons of policymakers, free riders among government units, and principal agent problems between the national and subnational governments. The paper describes how the laws differ in the specificity of quantitative targets, the strength of sanctions, the methods for increasing transparency, and the level of government passing the law. Evidence shows that fiscal responsibility laws can help coordinate and sustain commitments to fiscal prudence, but they are not a substitute for commitment and should not be viewed as ends in themselves. They can make a positive contribution by adding to the collection of other measures to shore up a coalition of states with the central government in support of fiscal prudence. Policymakers contemplating fiscal responsibility laws may benefit from the systematic review of international practice. One common trait of successful fiscal responsibility laws for subnational governments is the commitment of the central government to its own fiscal prudence, which is usually reinforced by the application of the law at the national as well as the subnational level.
 
Article
China has achieved significant achievements on poverty reduction effect since 1978, two hundred fifty million people have get rid of poverty. While with the relative poverty has become increasingly prominent, there are more dimensions which influence the poverty reduction effect. In order to make a comprehensive evaluation on poverty reduction effect for Chinese poverty-stricken areas, this paper presents a dynamic evaluation model based on the gray correlation method to measuring multidimensional poverty reduction effect by selecting the data of Chinese 14 contiguous poor areas. According to analyzing from three evaluation situations of current development, growth and comprehensive evaluation, the result shows that Desertification Area of Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou all have high rankings in comprehensive evaluation, current development evaluation and growth evaluation. While Qinba Mountain Area, Wuling Mountain Area and Dabie Mountain Area are ranked higher in current development evaluation than in growth evaluation, which indicates that these areas will have more difficulties in poverty reduction in the future. On the contrary, Tibet Area, Tree Districts in South Xinjiang and Daxing'anling Mountain Area are ranked lower in current development than in growth evaluation, which reflects that there are much more potential in poverty reduction in these areas.
 
Article
I critique a recent analysis (Miles, Stedman & Heald, 2020) of COVID-19 lockdown costs and benefits, focussing on the United Kingdom (UK). Miles et al. (2020) argue that the March-June UK lockdown was more costly than the benefit of lives saved, evaluated using the NICE threshold of £30000 for a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and that the costs of a lockdown for 13 weeks from mid-June would be vastly greater than any plausible estimate of the benefits, even if easing produced a second infection wave causing over 7000 deaths weekly by mid-September. I note here two key problems that significantly affect their estimates and cast doubt on their conclusions. Firstly, their calculations arbitrarily cut off after 13 weeks, without costing the epidemic end state. That is, they assume indifference between mid-September states of 13 or 7500 weekly deaths and corresponding infection rates. This seems indefensible unless one assumes that (a) there is little chance of any effective vaccine or improved medical or social interventions for the foreseeable future, (b) notwithstanding temporary lockdowns, COVID-19 will very likely propagate until herd immunity. Even under these assumptions it is very questionable. Secondly, they ignore the costs of serious illness, possible long-term lowering of life quality and expectancy for survivors. These are uncertain, but plausibly at least as large as the costs in deaths.In summary, policy on tackling COVID-19 cannot be rationally made without estimating probabilities of future medical interventions and long-term illness costs. More work on modelling these uncertainties is urgently needed.
 
Article
There has been renewed interest in the 1937-8 recession because analysts have mentioned that a Fed engineered increase in interest rates in 2016-7 might stop the 2009-16 recovery much as the 1937-8 recession interrupted the Great Depression recovery. There is interest in finding out whom or what caused the 1937-8 recession. Milton Friedman blamed the Fed for doubling reserve requirements and also said that the Treasury was equally to blame for its gold sterilization program. More recently Douglas Irwin came to the conclusion that gold sterilization was the main culprit. Velde finds that the sterilization of gold halted the growth of the monetary base in 1937 and that the effect of the reserve requirement increases was probable but less clear. Calomiris, Mason, and Wheelock find that the Fed, responsibility was minimal. None of these articles mention inventories being a significant problem. Meltzer (2003) said it was too small to be a major factor. Our inventory data are not only for 1935-8 but for accumulations in front of all post WWII recessions. It indicates that an inventory bubble was a major problem.
 
Unit root tests of the continuous variables at the levels and first differences
Results of the long-run function derived from estimated autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration model of the production of carbon dioxide (CO2) related to a number of variables for Ghana over the period, 1960-2014 Dependent Variable is LCO2 t (logged total carbon dioxide emissions in Ghana in year t)
Results of the estimated error correction function of the production of carbon dioxide (CO2) related to several variables for Ghana over the period, 1960-2014 Dependent Variable is DLCO2 t (the first difference of the logged total carbon dioxide emissions in Ghana for year t)
Article
This paper examines the effects of per capita gross domestic product (GDP), trade openness, and urbanization on the total carbon dioxide emissions of Ghana using time-series annual data from 1960 to 2014. The 55-year period, from 1960 to 2014, covered economic transformation of Ghana from a low-income agrarian country to a lower-middle income country. The analysis used the autoregressive distributed lag method of co-integration. The results showed that per capita GDP, trade openness, and urbanization all significantly influenced both long-run and short-run levels of carbon dioxide emissions in Ghana. However, increased trade openness led to reduced total emissions, while rising per capita GDP and increased urbanization both increased total emissions albeit at different intensity levels.
 
Regression Results
Article
This paper disaggregates the pay gap between men and women into four possible 'barriers': access to paid work; part-time versus full-time jobs; entrance into higher-paid jobs; and similar pay for equivalent work. UK data from 1968 to 2012 are analyzed, to investigate these possible barriers. All four barriers have persisted for decades, and all four 'barriers' tend to work in favour of men. There is evidence of progress in gender equality since 1968 – for example, the 1970 'Equal Pay Act' and 1975 'Sex Discrimination Act' seem to have reduced inequality; but some forms of discrimination seem immune to attempted equality legislation and change.
 
1 Results of the Stationarity (Unit Root) Test
Article
This paper provides analysis of the relationship between unemployment, inflation and economic growth in Nigeria: 1987-2012. The study utilizes secondary data to analyze the relationship between unemployment, inflation and economic growth. The methodology used for the study was ordinary least squares. The results confirms that in the long run, interest rate and total public expenditure have significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria, while inflation and unemployment has inverse effects on growth in Nigeria. The possible justification for the inverse effect of inflation on price level is that inflation may not be due to aggregate demand pressure but rather due to hiccups in the supply chain of goods both from the domestic and foreign supply outlets. Empirical deductions also signify the presence of significant feedback from the long run to short run disequilibrium. However, there exists a causal linkage between inflation, unemployment and economic growth in Nigeria. In conclusion, the paper recommended that the government must as a matter of necessity to improve or continue to fine-tune macroeconomic policy instruments to achieve a sustainable and enable environment that will enhance increase in domestic output.
 
Article
Poverty in Nigeria has been described as pervasive owing to the fact that the nation has witnessed a persistent increase in poverty level over the years despite various poverty alleviation programs. More so, it has been argued that income inequality is a manifestation as well as strong cause of poverty. The study therefore analyses the empirical relationship between income inequality and poverty prevalence among households in selected North Central States in Nigeria. This study employed survey method supported by time series data using regression analysis A representative sample of 600 respondents was planned for the survey in order to have at least 462 households responding. The result shows that dependency ratio, level of calorie intake, poverty per head counts are important factor influencing the level of poverty prevalence. Hence the study observes a substantial correlation between income inequality and poverty prevalence in the studied North Central Nigeria. The study therefore recommends a deliberate policy of reducing income inequality through equitable distribution of income and acceptable revenue sharing formula, need to campaign against large family size, providing subsidy and credit facilities for farmers and artisans true co-operatives, overhauling existing poverty alleviation programme and finally instituting good governance in every sphere of government activity which is a sine-qua-non for poverty reduction.
 
Article
The study dealt with the analysis of macroeconomic impact of national presidential elections in Ghana during the Fourth Republican period from 1992 to 2016 based on effects of these elections on economic growth, government budget deficits, inflation and interest rates. Using annual data covering the period, 1992 to 2016, the analysis indicated that national elections did not lead to significant increase in annual economic growth as measured by the changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, the increase in government budget deficits during election years was established. Further, based on quarterly data covering 100 periods from 1992 to 2016, we showed that elections produced significantly higher levels of inflation and interest rates. Our study confirmed anecdotal evidence of worsening macroeconomic performance of the economy of Ghana as a result of national presidential elections which hurt ordinary Ghanaians especially those living on fixed incomes such as pensioners due to higher inflation, and also adversely affected small and medium scale businessmen as a result of increased borrowing costs from higher interest rates. Keywords: Africa, democracy, Ghana, macroeconomics, political business cycles, political economy of elections
 
Article
The objective of this study is to examine the modified Fama and French (1993) three-factor asset pricing model, suggested by Cremers et al. (2012), in the UK equity market, over the period from October 1980 to June 2015. The article follows the correct Lewellen et al. (2010) framework for evaluating asset pricing models. In contrast to Michou et al. (2007) and Gregory et al. (2013), the results suggest the use of the modified Fama and French (1993) three-factor asset pricing model in practical applications that require the estimation of expected returns in the UK equity market. The results are robust using the same sample period in Gregory et al. (2013). Overall, the result suggests to follow the correct Lewellen et al. (2010) framework for evaluating asset pricing models in pricing the UK equity market returns.
 
Article
This paper investigates empirically whether the bank lending channel of monetary policy existed in Japan from 2000 to 2012. We employ the sign restrictions VAR approach to deal with the identification problem. In particular, we focus on the differential effects of a quantitative easing monetary policy regardless of bank (City banks vs. Regional banks) and firm (all enterprises vs. small and medium-sized enterprises-SMEs) size. Our impulse response function analyses show that following a quantitative easing monetary policy shock, the lending of Regional banks increases more than that of City banks, and the bank lending rate of Regional banks declines in a larger magnitude. Moreover, the responses of output to reserve supply are larger in Regional banks than that in City banks. Our variance decomposition analyses show that a larger proportion of the forecast error variance in the bank lending of Regional banks relative to City banks, and a larger proportion of the forecast error variance in the bank lending to SMEs relative to all firms can be explained by monetary policy shock. Similarly, the loans of Regional banks have a larger impact on output than the loans of City banks, and the loans to SMEs have a larger impact on output than the loans to all firms. Moreover, output is more affected by the reserve supply to Regional banks than to City banks. These results together indicate that a quantitative easing policy has a greater impact on the real economy through the lending of Regional banks.
 
ADF unit root test results
Lag length for the VAR
Residual serial correlation Lm
Estimation of the Johansen cointegration equation
Vector Error Correction Model
Article
This study analyses the main determinants of the nominal effective exchange rate using quarterly time series data covering the period 2000 to 2017. The Augmented Dickey Fuller test confirms that all the with the exception of interest rate were non stationary in levels. This study employs the reduced form Vector Auto-regression (VAR) and Johansen and Juselius cointegration to estimate the long run relationship between exchange rate and other key variables. The VAR is used following the Mundell-Fleming model which argues that, in an open economy with external trade and financial transactions the key macro variables interact and influence each other with lags. The impulse response functions are used to investigate the monetary policy transmission mechanism (MPTM). The study indicates that money supply, terms of trade and inflation were negative while gross domestic product and interest rate were positively related to exchange rate . The variables were found to have a long run relationship. The estimate of the speed of adjustment indicates that when nominal effective exchange rate deviates from the equilibrium, it returns to the equilibrium quickly because of its coefficient of adjustment which is 0.25.
 
Article
This paper investigates empirically whether a bank lending channel of monetary policy existed in Japan from 2000 to 2012. We extend Bernanke and Blinderi¯s model and estimate it with the Bayesian method to deal with the identification problem. In particular, we focus on the differential effects of quantitative easing monetary policy regardless of bank size (City banks vs. Regional banks) and firm size (all enterprises vs. small and medium-sized enterprises). We find that the semi-elasticities of loan supply with respect to bank lending rate are larger than those of loan demand, implying a need for larger decline in bank lending rate to stimulate loan demand following an increase in loan supply. We also find that the semi-elasticities of both loan demand and loan supply are almost the same with respect to bank lending rate regardless of bank and enterprise size. Bayesian impulse response function analyses show an increase in bank lending but a decline in spread following quantitative easing monetary policy shock, which is evidence of the bank lending channel. Variance decomposition analyses show that while a large proportion of forecast error variance in bank loans is explained by monetary policy shock, a large proportion of forecast error variance in spread is explained by loan supply shocks. These results also comprise evidence of bank lending channel. However, we find no evidence that loans of smaller banks and loans to smaller firms are more sensitive to monetary policy.
 
Schematization of decomposition 4. Results and Interpretations
Composition and response effect by group of variables
Article
The paper proposes to clarify whether fertility decline in Burkina Faso between 2003 and 2015 is explained by the differential distributions (composition effect and response effect) with focus on socioeconomic status (women’s education, women’s occupation and poverty). Using data from 2003 demographic and health survey (DHS) and 2015 demographic and health module of the Multisectoral Continuous Survey, we applied an extension of Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition approach to quantify the percentage of fertility decline attributable to distribution of the socio-economic status (composition effect) and the percentage attributable to women’s fertility behavior (response effect) attributable to socio-economic status. We find the fertility decline is mainly explain to changes in the distribution of women according the different factors. Indeed, the composition effect represents 88% and only 12% for the response effect. Moreover, composition effect for socio-economic factors is estimated to 85.13% and the response effect is estimated to 34.23%. These results suggest (i) to encourage girl’s education by enrolling them in school but particularly by ensuring that they go at least to secondary school; (ii) create a minimum package of services for the promotion of modern methods of contraception, particularly for women working in agriculture and trade sector as well as those from poor households and living in rural areas; (iii) promote domestic work to allow more women to be interested.
 
Article
The price variability of agricultural commodities reached record levels in 2008, and again more recently in 2010. This raises concerns that this increased price volatility would be temporal or structural. There are two soybean futures contracts in China: non-GM and GM. With the emergence of the GM soybean contract in 2004, the components of non-GM futures price volatility might have changed. This study examines the volatility determinants as well as seasonality of non-GM and GM soybean futures prices traded in Dalian Commodity Exchange from 2005 to 2014. Also, we test the co-movement between these two soybeans markets. We analyze the volatility by incorporating changes in important economic variables into the Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (DCC-GARCH) model. This research provides statistical evidence that the futures prices of soybeans in China are being influenced by the increasing consumption of soybeans, the import quantity of soybean, the trading volume in futures market and weather. We also find spillover effect from non-GM to GM in soybean markets. A better understanding of the volatility determinants provides important additional information for various market participants, including commodity traders, hedgers, arbitrageurs, exchanges and regulatory agencies.
 
Article
This study evaluates the performance of transformational industries (TI) in Sudan during the period (2004/2005 up to 2013/2014). This period represents the terminal point of the Comprehensive National Strategy, the period of the Five-Year plan and the beginning of the second Five-Year Plan of the Quarter-Century Strategy (2007/2008-2031/2032). This period is therefore appropriate for achieving indicators that provide evidence for the economic impact of this industry. This study aims to discuss the economics of (TI) from various aspects. Accordingly, the study adopts the descriptive analytical method that acknowledges the structure and the strategies related to the (TI), and clarifies TI’s economic role. The descriptive analytical method assesses the impact of (TI) on the GDP, the contribution of the export sector and the deficit in the balance of trade. To support its findings, the study draws comparisons between (TI) performance in Sudan and that in other countries. The most prominent findings of this study are: The (TI) contribution to the value added of products is low, with an average share in GDP around 10.5%. In addition, the (TI) average share in exports is about 0.24%, whereas the average share of imports from (TI) products is around 41.35%. This indicates that (TI) is not supporting the balance of trade, which explains the weak competitiveness of Sudanese (TI) relative to other countries in the region. Such findings are in agreement with the International Index of Specialization (IIS) data. The study confirms that (TI) in Sudan faces, some problems related to TI structure (locality, concentration, and size of industry) and (TI) types. Moreover, the financial and investment policies are focused on small and medium scale industries without the due attention to (TI). TI therefore failed to achieve the value added of its products or increase employment opportunities. The study also reveals that the infrastructure of (TI) did not consider the detrimental effects of the industry on the environment. The policies of some productive sectors negatively affected (TI). For instance, the edible oil and textile industries have been adversely affected by the introduction of wheat in place of cotton in the Gezira Scheme. In conclusion, the study made some recommendations to revive the (TI) in Sudan. It is important to improve the quality of (TI) products to gain competitive advantage. Large-scale industries must also be established and agglomerated in such a way that encourages forward, backward and vertical integration. An investment map should be designed consistent with the availability of resources’ of each region. It is necessity that regulations and administrative structures should put in place to improve performance.
 
Article
We use Student’s t-copula to study the extreme variations in the bivariate kinematic time series of log–return and log–roughness of the S&P 500 index during two market crashes, the financial crisis in 2008 and the flash crash on Monday August 24, 2015. The stable and small values of the tail dependence index observed for some months preceding the market crash of 2008 indicate that the joint distribution of daily return and roughness was close to a normal one. The volatility of the tail and degree of freedom indices as determined by Student’s t-copula falls down substantially after the stock market crash of 2008. The number of degrees of freedom in the empirically observed distributions falls while the tail coefficient of the copula increases, indicating the long memory effect of the market crash of 2008. A significant change in the tail and degree of freedom indices associated with the intraday price of S&P 500 index is observed before, during, and after the flash crash on August 24, 2015. The long memory effect of the stock market flash crash of August 2015 is indicated by the number of degrees of freedom in the empirically observed distributions fall while the tail coefficient of the joint distribution increases after the flash crash. The small and stable value of degrees of freedom preceding the flash crash provides evidence that the joint distribution for intraday data of return and roughness is heavy-tailed. Time-varying long-range dependence in mean and volatility as well as the Chow and Bai-Perron tests indicate non-stability of the stock market in this period.
 
FTSE Bursa Malaysia Composite Index from 2000 to 2014
Total Number of Companies Listed on Bursa Malaysia
Test of equal mean between sub-periods.
Article
This study examines the nature of risk among Malaysian stocks from January 2008 to July 2014. The paper applies the concept of risk decomposition as stipulated by the single index model (SIM) in which the total risk is partitioned into two main components, i.e. systematic and unsystematic risks. Forty-five companies were randomly selected as the sample for this study. The results show that the unsystematic risk is greater than the systematic risk for all three different time periods used in the study. The level of both types of risk changed over the two sub-periods. The portion of systematic risk has decreased and the unsystematic risk component has increased considerably. This suggests the need for analysts and investors to focus on the company-specific factors when evaluating the risk associated with Malaysian stocks given the greater influence that the unsystematic risk has on total risk.
 
Securities Companies on Securities Trading Centres after five years of operation
Selected aggregate data about Vietnamese securities industry (million $) 2009 to 2017
Regression results
The change in revenue of 5 wholly foreign ownership firms from 2009 to 2017
Article
This paper provides an examination of the impact of size, regulation and ownership structure on the productivity and efficiency of 53 securities firms in Vietnam in the years 2009 to 2017. The results show that the size of the firms and regulation has an impact on the performance of the firms. Foreign ownership also has a significant negative correlation with the firms’ efficiency, while majority ownership by domestic Vietnamese, individual shareholders (as opposed to ownership by institutional shareholders) has a positive impact. In contrast, there is no significant correlation between ownership by banks and the productive efficiency of the firms.
 
Tests for calendar breakpoints on ∆ log X, i.e. the log returns.
Article
In most of the academic literature on asset prices, like equities or foreign exchange, the words weak-form efficiency and random walk are used interchangeably. This paper makes a distinction between these two concepts. Weak-form efficiency holds when price increments are independent and random. A random walk is more stringent: it requires that the probability distribution of price increments be identical and normal, in addition of being independent. As expected the null hypothesis of a random walk is rejected with force while the null of weak-form efficiency is not. This implies that linear filter rules, chartism, and technical analysis cannot produce abnormal profits. But this implies also that non-linear filter rules, chartism, and technical analysis can be profitable. This explains the reality of finding departments of technical analysis in most Lebanese banks. If the market experience of Lebanon is generalized to other countries this would explain why international banks also have such departments.
 
Map of Vietnam and 28 coastal provinces and centrally-run cities
Assumptions about relationships among sustainable marine economic development variables
SEM model estimation results
Article
This work is to test the hypothesis of sustainable economic development by using a linear structural model. The structural equations in the structural model show that, the social development goals depend on economic growth and environmental protection goals, namely (Social target) = 1.22 * (Economic target) - 0.064 * (Environment target) and economic development target depend on social development goals and environmental protection goals, namely (Economy target) = 1.35 * (Social target) - 0.039 * (Environment target). The result show that both economic and social development have an adverse environmental impact that will no longer harmonize goals, reflecting the unsustainable marine economic development in the period of 2011-2018. There have many factors of unsustainable marine economic development in period 2011-2018, but mainly is low economic growth efficiency, low labor productivity and the process of urbanization does not truly create a foundation for economic development.
 
Article
Using the latest information and prices for mortgage-backed securities in September 2013 this analytical piece tests the correlation between the value of these instruments and the value of the FTSE 100 share price index.The correlation between the value of mortgage-backed securities and the value of FTSE 100 shares price index.
 
Article
In China’s rapid economic growth and significant increase in the process of urbanization, a large number of foreign direct investment may play an impeccable role. We establish a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model and make empirical research by using foreign direct investment, the urbanization and economic growth of quarterly data in China from 1999 to 2015. Then we use the unit root test, cointegration test, error correction model and Granger causality test to analyze three factors, and use impulse response function diagrams to analyze the relationship among FDI, urbanization and economic growth. The empirical results show that there is a cointegration relationship among FDI, urbanization and GDP. FDI and economic growth are granger causality each other, urbanization is the granger cause of FDI. Meanwhile, economic growth is the granger cause of urbanization. In the long run, improve domestic infrastructure construction and absorb foreign capital into domestic capital market are helpful to drive China's economic growth. The influence of urbanization on foreign investment continues to rise, meaning that urban development has pull effect to foreign investment. The departments concerned should encourage entrance of foreign capital to provide appropriate for the convenience of various kinds of production factors. At the same time, government should improve national awareness to stimulate consumption of foreign capital. What is more, we should accelerate the speed of urbanization, increase the intensity of financial expenditure to urbanization and increase the domestic economy by introducing foreign capital and city development.
 
Article
Taxes have a significant impact on individuals and firms. Unfortunately, complexity in the tax law has led to economic inefficiency due to inefficient use of tax breaks and increased audits and related penalties. Part of such complexity is driven by the sheer volume of tax law. To explain this phenomenon, we model tax law volume as a function of wealth transfers from the rent seeking/theory of regulation literature. Our models predict that both overall volume and the number of specific terms (defined by words in our specific “dictionary”) is higher for groups receiving tax breaks, and lower for more heavily taxed groups. The specific terms attempt to control for free riding across groups, and to limit tax breaks within groups. Using textual analysis, these predictions are supported in tests using the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Also, consistent with theory, we find that tax breaks are given to relatively smaller groups, and tax increases are spread across relatively larger groups.
 
The results of forecasting the productivity of maize crop in Iraq during the period (2019-2025) and according to the cases of Markov chains
Predicted values for each of the productivity, area and production of Maize in Iraq for the period (2019-2025)
Article
The research aims to predict the productivity of one of the most important major crops in Iraq, which is Maize, using Markov chains, which is one of the most important predictive methods that depend on relatively recent historical data and based mainly on previous data that is not far away. This is the advantage that Markov chains have, as relying on somewhat old historical data may negatively affect the predicted values. The results of the research showed the superiority of the third state to predict the productivity of Maize depending on the availability of Markov chains prediction conditions for this state. The results of the research also showed the continued decline in productivity for the coming years, as well as the impact of the predictive values on changes in the cultivated area more than changes in production, which confirms the existence of horizontal expansion at the expense of vertical expansion, that is, there is no intensification of production per unit area. The research also found that the actual values of productivity have approached the estimated values of the following years, and the matter applies to the convergence of these results for the subsequent years with the previous years, which confirms the accuracy of the method of Markov chains, in other words that what happened in the recent past had a clear impact in the future near.
 
Article
Europe 2020 is the new ten-year strategy of the European Union for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. This work analyzes the role of smart growth within the Europe 2020 strategy. "Smart growth" means strengthening knowledge and innovation by improving the quality of education, enhancing research performance, promoting innovation and transferring knowledge across the EU.In this study we create a thematic smart growth index, which consists of individual indicators proposed by the European Commission and presents the ranking of EU member countries in this index. The composite indicator of Europe 2020 by Pasimeni (2011) is taken as the basis for the creation of the indicator.Then, with the help of regression models, the relationship between the index and some macroeconomic variables is examined to examine the impact of the variables on the performance of the E-28 countries and their overall competitiveness. The results show that macroeconomic indicators of public finances, such as the rate of change in GDP per capita, government debt and deficit levels, are not key success factors for smart growth.
 
Figure No. 1 Urbanization (UDconnect Desing .,2013)  
Figure No. 2 Population by age group (culture geography,freeweb.com)  
Figure No. 3: Working people vs. retired (UN report 1950-2050)  
Figure No.4: UK Eight Great Technologies The UK has defined eight great technologies in which it is set to be global leader. Under the title of ―Investing in our scientific infrastructure,‖ the plan specifies budget allocation for the following main fields:  £235 million in the Sir Henry Royce Institute for advanced materials.  £113 million towards big data at the Hartree Centre, Daresbury.  £95 million for European Space Agency programs, including Britain's lead role in the next European Rover mission to Mars.  £31 million for a new Energy Security and Innovation Observing System, including a Subsurface Center at the former Shell site in Cheshire.  £60 million to extend the capabilities of the National Nuclear Users Facility.  £20 million towards an innovation center on ageing, in Newcastle.  £42 million Alan Turing Institute will have its headquarters at the British Library.  
Article
The world in 2050 will be very different from the world in which we currently live. An in-depth analysis suggests five main forces that will reshape the global economy and influence the i°modus operandii± of the world in fifty years. These are defined as "the great rebalancing,"" the productivity imperative," "the global grid," "pricing the planet," and "the market state." This paper is a theoretical comparative review, backed by hypotheses methods, to illustrate the conceptual framework of how and if national and international policy makers and stockholders are preparing their communities (countries) for the challenges of the future. EU (2013) Horizon 2020 a major policy plan of the European Union which is built around the three focal pillars of "excellent science," "industrial leadership," and research to tackle "societal challenges," has decided to support research towards meeting seven broad challenges: Health; demographic changes and wellbeing; food security; sustainable agriculture and forestry; marine, maritime and inland water research; bio-economy; secure, clean, and efficient energy; smart, green, and integrated transport; climate action; environment, resource efficiency, and raw materials; inclusive, innovative, and reflective societies; and secure and innovative societies. The United Kingdom (2014) is aiming at being foremost in science and business. They plan to achieve this by prioritizing, nurturing scientific talent, investing in scientific infrastructure, supporting research, and catalyzing innovation through participation in global science and innovation. They intend on realizing these goals by taking the lead in accelerating the pace and seizing new opportunities. Support is needed to accommodate and foster higher levels of collaboration between disciplines, sectors, institutions, people, and countries. Australia (2014) declared the need for clear innovation priorities supported by a solid research foundation and strong linkages between business and research sectors, in order to increase the translation of knowledge into new products, processes and services. Also needed is a flexible workforce with the entrepreneurial skills to thrive in an environment of rapid technological change, and a regulatory environment that supports collaboration and creativity. Are these national objectives consistent with 2050 world challenges? What can we learn from national priorities and objectives? Are they driven by the science level and/or situation in a given country, or by previous investments in infrastructure and achievement status? Are they driven by geographic location or economic sustainability? Are the challenges common to all nations as global challenges? Are there any tools, strategy and solutions to meet those challenges? How will they influence science? And finally, does it reflect on science administration in this global world?
 
Article
This paper examines the implications of poverty on the Cameroon economic emergence vision 2035. Both primary and secondary data were collected on selected indicators of economic emergence for the period 1990-2035 and analyzed with descriptive and inferential tools of data analysis. The results reveal that the performance of major socio-economic indicators of well-being is poor in Cameroon. In consonance with the situation, a global assessment of the economic performance of Cameroon shows little hope for the economic emergence of the country by the target date of 2035. In order for the goal of economic emergence of Cameroon to come true as planned, it is suggested that the problem of poverty should be solved first by appropriately targeting macro-economic variables through policies that focus on job creation, provision of basic needs and services of life to people.
 
Relative population size by gender and residence location
Median and mean ages by gender and residence location
Hosmer-Lemeshow test results
Article
The purpose of the article is to identify and analyze the employability determinants of young people aged 15-29. A logit model was estimated using data from Phases 1 and 2 of the multisectoral survey conducted in 2014 by the National Institute of Statistics and Demography (INSD) of Burkina Faso. The female gender, rural environment, monogamy, large household, non-membership in an organization, low-paid jobs, and socio-professional category of parents in the formal and modern labor market have positive effects and high probabilities of youth employment. On the other hand, vocational and technical training and higher education offer less chance of employment. Beyond the fight against youth unemployment, decent jobs for young people are needed, and social inequalities should be reduced. Also, an integrative approach that takes into account economic, social, psychological and managerial approaches is essential in analyzing the determinants of employability.
 
Article
The main aim of the paper is the definition of the constructs well-being, demands, resources and flexibility out of an existing and available data set. For this purpose we used the 5th European Working Conditions Survey, the theoretical assumptions from the Job Demands-Resources model (JD-R model) and further theoretical and empirical findings. Thus, we gained more information out of the data structure and the interdependence of the constructs, their dimensions and further explanatory variables as gender, work-life-balance, work-health-attitude, financial ease and type of contract. We also found interesting geographical pattern in the distribution of constructs. Hence, well-being is rather high in the northern part of West Europe and in North Europe. The resources, which affects well-being positive, are high in North Europe, while in South Europe they are low. Interestingly, also high demands with a negative influence on well-being, are found in the northern part of West Europe for the United Kingdom and Ireland. Flexibility is clearly high in North Europe and rather medium in the other countries. Thereby, overall flexibility is neutral concerning well-being, whereas the impact in the individual case can be positive as well as negative. Resources and demands are significant for employees well-being.
 
The Direct Effect of FDI 
Article
The aim of this study is to investigate whether the level of financial development can make a significant contribution to the Foreign Direct Investment's (FDI) positive impact on economic growth. In other words, to examine whether the contribution of FDI on growth is relatively more important in countries with well-developed financial markets compared to those with the less-developed ones. The time period of the empirical research spans from 1988-2009, using yearly macroeconomic data for a sample of 73 developing countries. Our empirical methodology consists of panel-growth regressions. Our results suggest that the FDI make substantial contribution to growth where financial systems function effectively, such as high-income countries, while the FDI impact is found to be insignificant in cases where relatively weaker financial systems exist.
 
Article
This paper analyzes the household energy demand in Ethiopia: the case study of Addis Ababa City. The weighted average income of energy is used to estimate the energy demand in the city, using cross sectional data from 466 households in 2012/13. The result indicates that each household spends on average 14.7% or 376.98 birr per month of its expenditure for energy purchase from their total expenditure is 2760.84 birr. Household energy demand is estimated by the share of energy expenditure from total household expenditure. Energy is a necessity good for city households and has positive income elasticity (+0.61). And, household size, the proportion of women in households, household head level of education, owning of dwelling and electric appliance (electric meter and refrigerator) are important underpinning factors that affect the decision to use a particular energy type. Thus, improving access to different energy sources especially the modern ones are essential to increase household modern energy demand and reduce energy poverty in city.
 
Article
The new theme of abrupt climate change (“Hawking tipping point”) must be taken up by global coordination – the UNFCCC, IPCC and the G20. The only policy response is to reinforce the COP21 project, and start managing its quick implementation of decarbonisation. A more decisive climate change policy – no coal or charcoal, solar power parks, and possibly carbon capture – may not guarantee the goal of + 2 degrees Celsius, but it may help avoid climate chaos. Only global coordination can break through the resistance of markets in the rich countries and governments in the Third World together with vibrant civil society. The large COP21 Secretariat must become a management agency for rapid decarbonisation with support from other global bodies (WB, IMF) and the G20.
 
Simulation results 
Article
Although most countries in the world have been trying to introduce renewable energy into their power supplies to address issues related to the environment and energy security, the Middle East has the lowest overall renewable energy capacity in the world. However, there is currently a trend of accelerating renewable energy deployment with increased investment in the region for the purposes of improving energy security and independence and promoting long-term social and economic benefits. This study aims to examine the impact of implementing a feed-in tariff (FiT) in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. After a simulated test, it was found that the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and the current average unit cost of electricity were considerably divergent. That is to say, a large extra cost is incurred in order to deploy renewable energy in Abu Dhabi. In this context, the effectiveness of implementing a FiT in Abu Dhabi is confirmed. Furthermore, an estimation of the size of the renewable energy surcharge indicated that the impact of implementing a FiT would be enormous. For example, if the target rate of deploying renewable energy is set at 7%, a renewable energy surcharge equivalent to approximately one third of the total turnover of the electricity sector should be additionally imposed. It follows that the electricity rate will be raised by about thirty percent on average, unless subsidies are provided by the government.
 
Article
The retail industry in Zimbabwe has embraced the use of a variety of technologies in order to survive in this ever changing technological era. However, little research has been done on the adoption and use of these technologies and no model has been developed to date. The aim of this paper was to develop a model best suited to the Zimbabwean retail industry in order to enhance the successful adoption and use of online transaction platforms. The online transaction platforms used to develop the model were Internet banking, Automated Teller Machines, Mobile banking and Point of Sale. A three-sample dataset comprising of 268 bank and supermarket customers, 56 bank managers and 31 supermarket managers was used. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to determine the relationship between the given factors influencing adoption and use of online transaction platforms and the constructs perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness. The resultant TAMZIM model borrowed ideas from the Technology Acceptance Models proposed by Fred Davis in the mid-80s.
 
Article
This study assesses the extent to which financial innovations contribute to improving micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) access to credit in Tanzania. Information was collected through interviews using a structured questionnaire administered on a sample of 318 respondents. Probit estimates were used for robustness check of the factors that influence MSMEs borrowing behavior.The findings indicate that factors, which influence MSMEs to borrow money through innovative channels, comprise the need for meeting business start-up, operational and expansion costs. Other factors are in respect of ease of access; convenience; short loan process; and a relatively high degree of control of the loan process by the borrower. In contrast to progress made in improving access to financial services by MSMEs, loan access by individuals or businesses through innovative platforms is still low. Only 28.8 percent acknowledged having received loans through innovative platforms, and coefficient on innovation variable was found to be statistically insignificant. Explaining this anomaly include unfavorable terms of loans; high lending rates, inadequate knowledge; small-size loans; and short repayment period. Meanwhile, loan process time, loan size, loan access (distance) have a higher probability of increasing loan access by MSMEs.Therefore, there is a need to intensify measures towards enhancing MSMEs access to credit, taking advantage of available innovative platform channels. Increasing efforts towards reducing credit risk will help to lower the lending rates, while moral suasion measures by financial regulators together with borrowers’ traceable business-record can as well entice loan providers to offer loans of larger size and longer maturity. Meanwhile, capacity building is imperative in enabling MSMEs to acquire requisite business management skills and inculcate record-keeping culture. Equally crucial is enhancing measures towards maintaining the country’s macro-economic stability with a view to boosting demand for credit and improving MSMEs’ loan repayment capabilities.
 
Article
The objective of this paper is to determine the possible link between economic growth and electricity access rate. An autoregressive lag model (ARDL) on panel data from 1998 to 2019 for West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) member states was used. This model shows that in long term, the growth rate has a positive impact on access to electricity in WAEMU member states. In the short term, economic growth rate has a positive and significant impact on electricity access rate only in Benin. The results of Granger causality test show an unidirectional relationship from GDP growth rate, investment rate to access to electricity.
 
Article
Students prefer to learn in different ways. These learning preferences are commonly known as learning styles. This variety in learning styles among students suggests that instructors should teach their course materials in different ways to cater to different learning styles. In addition, according to (Nilson 2010), when our society is concerned with fairness and equality, teaching to different styles is a main facet of equity. This paper focuses on Fleming and Mill’s VARK model (1992) to describe students’ different learning styles and explain why and in what ways economics instructors can accommodate different learning styles in their teaching. More specifically, the present paper aims to examine different learning styles and introduce teaching tools for accommodating different learning styles in the context of teaching economics. In addition to identifying learning-style-specific teaching instruments for the teaching of economics, the paper provides some prominent examples of each in the literature of economic education. Finally, considering recent advancements and availability of various technologies, existing evidence, general growing consensus on the issue, and many other reasons mentioned throughout the paper, it is argued and suggested that it makes more sense to take a multimodal approach to the teaching of economics.
 
Article
This paper examines from the accountant’s perspective, the relationship between advances in technology of capital assets and financial performance of construction companies listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Data were collected through questionnaire. Analyses were performed by means of descriptive statistics and Pearson product moment coefficient of correlation using the statistical package for social sciences (SPSS). Findings indicate that advances in technology of capital assets measured in terms of efficiency have a statistically significantly strong positive relationship with financial performance. Results of descriptive statistics indicate that efficiency of capital assets arising from advances in technology of capital assets influences contract patronages by 54.5%. In conclusion, capital assets acquired without cognisance of global modernisation in machines and equipment may shortly suffer from obsolescence and thus become unable to deliver value for money services.
 
Article
This manuscript presents a new methodology to measure the behavior of banking companies. It is based on equilibrium a criterion which is always on a balance sheet, and the main issue is the economic and financial significance of this equilibrium. The accounting analysis based on the Edgeworth's box analyzes an observation by means of two indicators, which measures the economic and financial significance of each annual observation at same time. This characteristic allows the measure of the decision making on two different criteria, according to evolution of macroeconomic variables. Moreover, undetermined values have financial and economic significances because the behavior of companies has a limit on this methodology. This manuscript presents the accounting methodology of the Edgeworth's box in the first chapter. Then, the behavior of banking companies is analyzed as qualitative and quantitative criteria to carry out the result of research in the second chapter. Conclusions are referred to the analytic capacity of this methodology and research results.
 
Article
In this paper, using the 2011 national economic accounting data of the provinces, we evaluated the government department performance by factor analysis. And then calculated the local government department's total output taking advantage of the labor production efficiency. And the labor production efficiency of government department concludes the performance information. Which will improved the method of accounting government department's output by cost.
 
Article
This paper mainly explores the relation between initial returns and audits by the big four accounting firms (the Big Four) in China. The sample period is from January 2007 to December 2012 (the new accounting standards in China is implemented after January 2007 for integrating with the international standards), and selected 1,069 IPO firms listed in the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange in this paper.Many previous studies have proposed the Informational Hypothesis, which states that the initial returns of IPOs being audited by the Big Four are lower than those IPOs being audited by other accounting firms. Oppositely, this paper proposes the Snap-up Hypothesis due to consider the IPOs in mainland China are characterized by “three lows,”: the low reliability of audits being performed by non-Big Four, low proportion of IPOs audits being performed by the Big Four, and low balling ratio. These “three lows” features indicate that the Snap-up Hypothesis applies in the IPOs market of mainland China. In other words, the initial returns of the IPOs being audited by the Big Four are higher than those IPOs being audited by other accounting firms due to the Big Four have the superior reputations.This paper further collects the trading volumes and the turnover ratio on the first day, and selects the Big Four audited IPOs by snap-up tide. As above mentioned, because the snap-up tide and raised stock prices on the first-day listing, investors may purchase the shares when offering and sell them on the first-day listing to obtain considerable profits.
 
Article
The study of the moderating effect of non-financial companies’ financial transparency on their share values in the context of African stock exchanges is part of a dual perspective. At a first stage, it questions financial theory’s state of art on financial statement disclosure practices of listed companies and their anticipated influence on their shares’ prices. Thereafter, based on the investigation of the specific case of the WAEMU’s Regional capital market (BRVM), a financial place common to eight countries, it highlights the level of transparency in financial communication of companies listed in Africa’s capital market. In doing so, it provides a dual enrichment. First, it highlights the enrichment that researches on Africa’s context can provide to financial theory and its contribution to the reading of African Management practices. In a complementary fashion, it helps to discover the specific practices in Africa and their consequences on market functioning. It also questions the validity of the conclusions drawn from researches made in international environment in the African context.
 
Article
Several studies have shown that financial development improves efforts to increase the tax base and tax revenue through different channels. This paper analyzes the effect of financial development on tax revenue conditional on institutional quality for a panel of developing countries over the period 1990-2019. Using a threshold approach, the results indicate that the influence of financial development on non-cash tax receipts is not monotonic and is sensitive to level of institutions. Financial development improves the tax base and tax revenue when the quality of institutions is better. The results point out as well heterogeneousness across countries and over the years counts. Estimates with financial market index confirm the evidence that countries that benefit most from increased tax revenues are those that improve their institutional quality.
 
Article
Use of birth control products and contraceptives could improve the economic welfare of women, arising from adequate spacing of child births and reduced financial pressure and lower stress on women having fewer and well maintained children. In order to interrogate this assertion, a quantitative survey-based study was conducted that involved a diverse and heterogeneous population of 400 randomly selected women in all 39 settlements of the Amasaman Area Council in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana. The first objective of this study was to analyze the factors which influenced the current use of birth control products and contraceptives. The second objective ascertained whether women who had ever used birth control products and contraceptives, at least once in their reproductive lifespans, had higher economic welfare than those who had never used these products at all. The results of the analysis showed that the likelihood of using birth control products and contraceptives declined with increasing income of the women. Students were less likely to use birth control products and contraceptives than non-students. However, the degree of awareness of these products was influential in increasing the likelihood of use of these products by students and higher-income women. Other variables which influenced the likelihood of use of birth control products and contraceptives included the perceived quality of reproductive health information and the quality of health services provided by nurses and doctors at clinics. It was established that women who had ever used birth control products and contraceptives, over their reproductive lifespans, had significantly higher incomes than those who had never used these products.
 
Article
We examined the causes of poor sanitary condition in Gbawe, a low-income suburb of Accra, the capital city of Ghana in the current era of one of the worst epidemics of cholera in Accra which has been linked to improper disposal of wastes. This survey-based study identified improved and unimproved methods for disposal of household solid wastes. The likelihood of a person using an improved method of disposing solid wastes increased with increasing household income but it decreased with increasing number of household members. A conclusion arising from the study is the need for local government authorities to abolish the fees and charges imposed on users of public waste collection centres in order to encourage proper disposal of solid wastes. Indirect methods of financing local authorities such as increased levels of property taxes need to be explored to finance the development and maintenance of adequate numbers of public waste collection centres to encourage proper disposal of solid wastes by householders and the general public.
 
Article
Applied Economics and Finance (AEF) would like to acknowledge the following reviewers for their assistance with peer review of manuscripts for this issue. Many authors, regardless of whether AEF publishes their work, appreciate the helpful feedback provided by the reviewers. Their comments and suggestions were of great help to the authors in improving the quality of their papers. Each of the reviewers listed below returned at least one review for this issue. Reviewers for Volume 6, Number 3 Andrey Kudryavtsev, IsraelAyoub Taha Sidahmed, SudanErdal Gumus, TurkeyFarhat Iqbal, PakistanGeorge Theocharides, CyprusGetamesay Bekele Meshesha, EthiopiaIan McFarlane, UKIbrahim Baghdadi, LebanonIulia Lupu, RomaniaKaveh Dalvand, United StatesKembo Bwana, TanzaniaMagdalena Radulescu, RomaniaMagdalena Zioło, PolandMahmoud Mohammed Sabra, PalestineMamdouh Abdelmoula M. Abdelsalam,EgyptMarco Muscettola, ItalyMarta Borda, PolandMohammed Al-Mahish, Saudi ArabiaNicolas Afflatet, GermanyNuno Crespo, PortugalOltiana Muharremi Pelari, AlbaniaPatrycja Kowalczyk-Rolczynska, PolandPayal Chadha, KuwaitRajeev Rana, IndiaRamona Orastean, RomaniaRichard Nguyen, USARomeo Victor Ionescu, RomaniaSebastian Schich, FranceSteven V. Cates, USASzabolcs Blazsek, GuatemalaVictoria Cociug, MoldovaY. Saidi, AlgeriaZi-Yi Guo, USA Nikki GibbsEditorial AssistantOn behalf of,The Editorial Board of Applied Economics and FinanceRedfame Publishing9450 SW Gemini Dr. #99416Beaverton, OR 97008, USAURL: http://aef.redfame.com
 
Article
Applied Economics and Finance [AEF] would like to acknowledge the following reviewers for their assistance with peer review of manuscripts for this issue. Many authors, regardless of whether AEF publishes their work, appreciate the helpful feedback provided by the reviewers. Their comments and suggestions were of great help to the authors in improving the quality of their papers. Each of the reviewers listed below returned at least one review for this issue.Reviewers for Volume 4, Number 1 Aaron MoreyAndrey KudryavtsevArash RiasiAyoub Taha SidahmedByson Beracah MajangaEyup KadiogluFarhat IqbalGetamesay BekeleIan McFarlaneIgor MatyushenkoJin Yong YangJolita VveinhardtLuca GiordanoMagdalena RadulescuMagdalena ZiołoMarta BordaMevlut TatliyerMohammed Alkali YusufPatrycja Kowalczyk-RólczynskaPayal ChadhaProf. Ali MassoudRamona OrasteanSeyyed Ali Zeytoon Nejad MoosavianSteven V. CatesSzabolcs BlazsekTaro AbeY. Saidi Nikki GibbsEditorial AssistantOn behalf of,The Editorial Board of Applied Economics and FinanceRedfame Publishing9450 SW Gemini Dr. #99416Beaverton, OR 97008, USAURL: http://aef.redfame.com
 
Article
Applied Economics and Finance (AEF) would like to acknowledge the following reviewers for their assistance with peer review of manuscripts for this issue. Many authors, regardless of whether AEF publishes their work, appreciate the helpful feedback provided by the reviewers. Their comments and suggestions were of great help to the authors in improving the quality of their papers. Each of the reviewers listed below returned at least one review for this issue.Reviewers for Volume 9, Number 1 Abdulaziz Abdulahman, Marmara University, USAAlbert Henry Ntarmah, Jiangsu University, GhanaAli Massoud, Sohag University, EgyptFahri ÖZSUNGUR, Adana Science and Technology University, TurkeyIulia Lupu, Victor Slavescu” Centre for Financial and Monetary Research, Romanian Academy, RomaniaLiao Zhu, Cornell University, USAMagdalena Radulescu, University of Pitesti, RomaniaMahmoud Mohammed Sabra, Al Azhar University-Gaza, PalestineOlena Sokolovska, St. Petersburg State University, RussiaOmer Allagabo Omer Mustafa, Sudan Academy for Banking and Financial Sciences., SudanPayal Chadha, University of Wales Prifysgol Cymru, KuwaitRajeev Rana, APB Govt. P.G. College, IndiaRamona Orastean, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, RomaniaRomeo Victor Ionescu, Dunarea de Jos University, RomaniaShahram Fattahi, Razi University, IranSzabolcs Blazsek, Universidad Francisco Marroquín, GuatemalaY. Saidi, M’sila University, AlgeriaZi-Yi Guo, Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., USA Nikki GibbsEditorial AssistantOn behalf of,The Editorial Board of Applied Economics and FinanceRedfame Publishing9450 SW Gemini Dr. #99416Beaverton, OR 97008, USAURL: http://aef.redfame.com
 
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