Annual Review of Energy and the Environment

Published by Annual Reviews
Print ISSN: 1056-3466
This paper focuses on the economic desirability of the fixed and relatively short-term greenhouse gas targets and timetables in the Kyoto Protocol. The Protocol provides flexibility in which greenhouse gases to control, where control can be implemented, and what domestic policy measures are used. However, the Protocol does not allow much flexibility in when emission reductions take place in pursuit of longer-term environmental goals. Nor does it allow more flexible shorter-term environmental targets through price-based policy instruments that balance environmental goals and compliance costs. The relative inflexibility of the Protocol with respect to these elements may derive, in part, from a misplaced analogy between the global warming issue and the highly successful effort to phase out CFCs under the Montreal Protocol. The lack of "when" flexibility may be a key barrier to achieving the broader goals of the Kyoto Protocol, particularly if "where" flexibility is constrained in implementing the Protocol.
Abstract Technology largely determines economic development and its impact on the environment; yet technological change is one of the least developed parts of existing global change models. This paper reviews two approaches developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, both of which use the concept of technological learning and aid modeling of technological change. The first approach is a micromodel ("bottom-up") of three electricity generation technologies that rigorously endogenizes technological change by incorporating both uncertainty (stochasticity) and learning into the model's decision rules. This model, with its endogenous technological change, allows radical innovations to penetrate the energy market and generates S-shaped patterns of technological diffusion that are observed in the real world. The second approach is a macro ("top-down") model that consists of coupled economic- and technological-system models. Although more stylistic in its representation of endogenous technological change, the macro model can be applied on a worldwide scale and can generate long-term scenarios that are critical for policy analysis. Both the micro- and macro models generate radical departures from currently dominant technological systems ("surprises"), including long-term scenarios with low carbon and sulfur emissions. Our focus is modeling, but for policy, the work underscores the need for huge investments before environmentally superior technologies can compete in the market.
This article reviews recent and current opinions about prospects for prices in the world market for crude oil. Two alternative views are examined: 1. the present oil glut and softness in the market is temporary, and by the 1990s the real price of oil well begin to rise again; and 2. the changes we have witnessed in the past five years - in oil demand, in non-OPEC supply, and in the power of the Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC) - are permanent and irreversible. Oil will be in excess supply more or less indefinitely.
The science and engineering required for harnessing the energy from falling water are well established; the basic concepts are understood by the general public, and up to the last decade, there was strong public acceptance in developing water resource projects to provide an economic, reliable, and renewable source of electric power. At this time, however, water development projects are being critically analyzed with regard to overall justification on an economic, environmental and social basis. Further, various alternative power sources are being considered, which are widely variable with regard to economic justification, environmental effects, social and political problems, technology, reliability, and practical utilization.
As the 20th century draws to a close, both individual countries and the world community face challenging problems related to the supply and use of energy. To assess the magnitude of future problems and the potential effectiveness of response strategies, it is important to understand how and why energy use has changed in the past. This requires study of the activities for which energy is used, and of how people and technology interact to provide the energy services that are desired. In this article, we summarize our findings for the 1970-1988 period, and draw on work by others as well. -from Authors
The overall energy-intensity has improved since 1973 in almost all Common Market countries except Greece and Portugal. This paper develops energy intensity and energy efficiency indicators to explain short-term fluctuations in consumption; to allow identification of important influences; and to enable the long-term progress of energy-efficiency in production and consumption sectors to meet the goal of a 20% decrease in energy intensity by 1995 as set by the EC Council in 1986. -C.J.Willemstyn
California's energy supply and use patterns have been unique among the 50 states for decades. They reflect the indigenous oil and gas resources, the small role for coal, the size of the state and the related importance of highway vehicles, and the rapid growth in both population and share of the nation's GNP. Cogeneration in California and in Texas has no parallel in other states. However, unanticipated problems have arisen in connection with the concerted effort to find new energy sources. In addition, energy use in the state has begun to climb, erasing some of the gains of the last decade. In particular, demand for transportation fuels is on the rise again because improved vehicle mileage has been more than offset by an increase in the number of vehicles on the road. This paper describes the contributions of both the principal new components of the state's energy slate and traditional sources that continue to supply the bulk of the energy consumed.
November 15, 1990 marked the end of the long acid rain debate in the US, when Bush signed into law the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA). The legislation was broad-based, applying not only to acid rain, but also to ozone non-attainment, air toxics, and visibility. Electric utility, mobile, and industrial sources are all subjects of emissions control provisions within the CAAA. The electric utility industry is most affected in the near term by the reductions in emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) required to meet acid rain provisions and by control of NOx for ozone non-attainment. The impacts of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments on utilities are substantial. The magnitude of costs and unknowns puts clean air compliance into a new league of energy issues, in which the decisions utilities must make are not simply technological or engineering economic choices, but rather are very complex business decisions with numerous stakeholders, pitfalls, and opportunities. This paper summarizes the key regulatory requirements of the CAAA, outlines compliance options and questions facing the utility industry, and addresses how utility strategic business decisions could be affected. -from Authors
The accident at Chernobyl constituted the largest release of radioactivity ever recorded in a single technological accident. It was caused by a combination of design and management errors, and produced a highly variable pattern of fallout, strongly correlated with local rainfall. Even at 1500 km, fallout in some places far exceeded the levels recorded during the period of atmospheric nuclear weapons testing. The burden of 31 acute deaths was surprisingly small, and was limited to emergency workers who had to cope with the fire at the plant. The cost of potential chronic health effects, including as many as 28,000 cancers worldwide, in contrast, is surprisingly large, and is localized in Soviet Europe and non-Soviet Europe in approximately equal parts. The author discusses how the pattern of dispersion and exposure due to Chernobyl demands reconsideration of emergency planning for nuclear power stations, not only in the Soviet Union, but also in the West. Revised emergency plans should involve the combination of decentralized and centralized response efforts capable of providing not only acute risk management but also adequate protection against chronic exposure, particularly via ingestion.
Energy policy can be used to influence energy consumption in many ways: directly, by expanding or confining consumers; choices; or more indirectly, through incentives or disincentives for certain choices, creation or removal of barriers or misdirections to market allocation, administration or control of sales prices, regulation of price structures, and other policy instruments. Even the reduction or increase of energy supply by means of price guarantees, subsidies, etc affects the level and structure of consumption as it changes price levels and relative prices. Such measures and regulations, often taken for reasons that then energy policy, are regarded as energy conservation policy measures only when they are intended to reduce energy consumption. This review covers the range of energy consumption policies in the Federal Republic of Germany, focusing on conservation policy. Supply-side policies are considered to some extent, not only because of their influence on energy consumption but also in order to compare the different policy approaches to energy demand and supply. This review reflects the author's view that conservation policy is an important element of energy policy, but that it is embedded in the more general task of optimally allocating all resources.
This paper gives an overview of the sub-Saharas energy scene and identifies key issues of concern. It points to some likely future trends in energy use and suggests options to meet future needs. The paper then identifies possible barriers to implementing these options and the policies needed to overcome these obstacles. The prospects for the region are excellent if it is viewed as an interdependent region; isolationist thinking and alienation of the vast rural majority will only perpetuate existing poverty. The region must cooperate and search for very clear development agendas and integrating mechanisms to develop the financial, institutional, and political structures required to implement these technologies. -from Author
Reviews SADCC's first decade of regional cooperation, concentrating on the exploitation and supply of energy resources. The authors consider in detail the energy situation of the following topics: petroleum; coal; electricity; biomass; new and renewable sources; and consumption efficiency through conservation. The performance appraisal includes the strength of foundations load for the future, institutional constraints, regional energy planning, environmental issues, and uncertainty in South Africa. -P.Hardiman
Abstract This review explores the potential energy, soil, and water constraints on highly productive agricultural systems. It focuses on the process of agricultural intensification during the past 50 years, and it shows that multiple constraints-as opposed to a single constraint, such as energy-are needed to assess the future sustainability of intensive agricultural production. Recent studies documenting changes in total factor productivity based on long-term experimental trials and field surveys are discussed in detail. The results of these studies are worrisome; they indicate that degradation in soil quality and in the overall natural resource base may threaten the long-run viability of several of the world's most intensive agricultural systems. Other studies are reviewed that support a more optimistic view of resource availability and the ability of improved technology and management to overcome these physical constraints. However, the combined evidence suggests that the increase in agricultural prices required to induce the necessary changes in technology could be devastating to low-income households. Most of the world's poor consume more agricultural output than they produce, and they spend up to 80% of their incomes on food.
This review examines developing-country air pollution from the standpoint of a useful analysis technique that has been under development in recent years: "total exposure assessment'. The review is composed of four parts: a brief description of the historical and current relationship between energy use and air pollution; an explanation of the idea of exposure assessment and the power that it can bring to analyses of the health impacts of air pollution; focusing on developing countries, a global exposure assessment; and a review of the health effects literature relevant to the micro-environments found to harbor the largest human exposures. -from Author
Abstract Globally, almost three billion people rely on biomass (wood, charcoal, crop residues, and dung) and coal as their primary source of domestic energy. Exposure to indoor air pollution from the combustion of solid fuels is an important cause of disease and mortality in developing countries. Despite recent advances in estimating the health impacts of indoor smoke, there are limited studies targeted toward the design and implementation of effective intervention programs. We review the current knowledge of the relationship between indoor air pollution and disease, and of the assessment of interventions for reducing exposure and disease. This review takes an environmental health perspective and considers the details of both exposure and health effects that are needed for successful intervention strategies. In particular, we summarize the emerging understanding of the central role of household energy technology and day-to-day household activities in determining exposure to indoor smoke. We also identify knowledge gaps and detailed research questions that are essential in successful design and dissemination of preventive measures and policies. In addition to specific research recommendations based on the weight of recent studies, we conclude that research and development of effective interventions can benefit tremendously from integration of methods and analysis tools from a range of disciplines-from quantitative environmental science and engineering, to toxicology and epidemiology, to the social sciences.
Abstract Over the past 20 years, a new scientific discipline based on direct measurement of human exposure to environmental pollutants has developed. The fundamental principle of the new science is to "measure where the people are." This has required developing small, lightweight, quiet personal monitors for volatile organic compounds and other pollutants. A second principle has been to measure body burden, particularly exhaled breath, whenever possible to determine the relationship between exposure and dose. Studies employing the new monitors and breath measurements have overturned accepted ideas about the sources of most volatile organic pollutants. The main sources turn out surprisingly often to be small, close to the person, and completely unregulated. These findings should result in major changes in our approach to environmental regulation; however, powerful forces of resistance would need to be overcome.
▪ Abstract Regional air quality models have been used for scientific investigation of trace species dynamics for over two decades and are now beginning to take a central position in air quality management. In particular, they have been used for studying the transport and fate of atmospheric acids, photochemical oxidants (e.g. ozone), and more recently, aerosols. Such models are based on numerically solving the mass conservation equations for a chemically interacting system of species and are applied to horizontal domains of 1000s of kms. Primary applications include assessing the response of pollutant concentrations to emissions controls, quantifying the flux of pollutants across and out of a region, and understanding the impact of specific processes on pollutant concentrations.
The interdependency of aircraft technological systems, the global reach of the aviation transport industry, and the uncertainty surrounding potential atmospheric effects have made defining the relationship between aviation and environmental impact an arduous task. Air travel continuous to experience the fastest growth of all modes of transport, and although the energy intensity of the aviation transport system continues to decline, fuel use and total emissions have steadily risen. This trend, which represents a conflict between growth and environmental impact, has motivated the aircraft manufacturing and airline industries, the scientific community, and governmental bodies to consider what pace of emissions reduction is acceptable. This paper analyzes the historical influence of aircraft performance on cost to examine the potential pace of future efficiency improvements and emissions reduction. Technological and operational influences on aircraft energy intensity are quantified and correlated with direct operating cost and aircraft price using analytical and statistical models built upon historical data for US airlines. The energy intensity reduction potential and economic characteristics of future aircraft are also projected, through extrapolations of historical trends in aircraft technology and operations.
This report examines past trends in the energy-efficiency of air travel and the potnetial for further aircraft efficiency improvements beyond the year 2000. Its purpose is to identify possible future commercial aircraft fleet efficiency improvements, ranging from what seems likely given existing trends and plans, to the maximum achievable given existing technology and the rate of aircraft stock turnover. The first step is to examine historical trends to understand what factors have contributed to past efficiency gains and how they have come about. Fuel-efficiency technologies are then identified based on published reports, and estimates of their impacts documented. Next the author determines the efficiencies of existing aircraft types and develop estimates for the next generation of aircraft to be delivered in the early 1990s. This report concentrates on passenger air travel.
Alcohols have the potential to revolutionize energy fuel supply and use, particularly in transportation. This worldwide potential is based on (a) the variety of widely available raw materials from which alcohols can be made (coal, natural gas, petroleum, and biomass), (b) the improved and demon­ strated technology for alcohol manufacture and use, and (c) the favorable combustion characteristics of alcohols, namely clean burning with high octane performance.
Ressources eoliennes de la region. Politique gouvernementale de promotion du developpement de l'energie eolienne. Revue de la technologie des eoliennes installees dans cette zone. Incidences sociales des fermes eoliennes. Problemes de securite et d'environnement. Analyse economique. Comparaison avec d'autres sources d'energie. Probleme d'integration au reseau
The federal government's attempts to site a permanent high-level radioactive waste repository have been frustrating and so far unsuccessful. Many of the problems were recognized more than a decade ago. In 1982, the US Congress passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act and established a program to site and develop an underground repository. By 1987, this program was widely considered to be a failure. It was plagued by public opposition, intergovernmental conflict, poor management, scientific questions and concerns, and substantial cost overruns. In December 1987 Congress amended the act and selected Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as the only location to be studied as a potential repository. This halted further work on other potential sites in the western US, the eastern US sites for a second repository, and the monitored retrievable system facility that the US Department of Energy (DOE) wanted to locate in Tennessee. These amendments did not address the basic causes for the fail ures between 1983 and 1987. As a result,...
[Figure: see text] ▪ Abstract The evolution from an electrochemist was motivated by a growing conviction that Indian science and technology should be reoriented. A cell was created in the Indian Institute of Science in 1974 to initiate and promote work of rural relevance as a weapon against poverty. Surveys led to a detailed empirical study of energy consumption patterns in villages and to the design and construction of rural energy centers. The lessons from this village work are described. The principal outcome of the collaboration with J. Goldemberg (Brazil), T.B. Johansson (Sweden), and R.H. Williams (United States) was the book Energy for a Sustainable World that contributed significantly to the new paradigm for energy. The application of this paradigm resulted in a detailed electricity demand scenario for the South Indian state of Karnataka. Following mandatory retirement from the Indian Institute of Science, the International Energy Initiative (IEI) was set up in 1991 as a Southern-conceived, Southern-led, Southern-located South-North partnership. Persisting personal concerns about the ethical implications of science resurfaced through opposition to India's nuclear tests in 1998 and a visit to the concentration camps at Auschwitz. The associated human dimensions of energy were emphasized in the acceptance speech at Göteborg of the Volvo Environment Prize 2000. The penultimate endgame involved retirement.
Pollution intensities and costs for selected energy-related activities and pollutants
Distinction between autonomous and induced technical change
Impact of spillovers on total developing country emissions during the first Kyoto commitment period. High spillover implies intensity convergence. 
Implications of autonomous vs. induced technical change
Abstract Technical change in the energy sector is central for addressing long-term environmental issues, including climate change. Most models of energy, economy, and the environment (E3 models) use exogenous assumptions for this. This is an important weakness. We show that there is strong evidence that technical change in the energy sector is to an important degree induced by market circumstances and expectations and, by implication, by environmental policies such as CO2 abatement. We classify the main approaches to modeling such induced technical change and review results with particular reference to climate change. Among models with learning by doing, weak responses are only obtained from models that are highly aggregated (lack technological diversity) and/or that equate rates of return to innovation across sectors. Induced technical change broadens the scope of efficient policies toward mitigation, including not just research and development and aggregated market instruments but a range of sectoral-based policies potentially at divergent marginal costs. Furthermore, to the extent that cleaner technologies induced by mitigation diffuse globally, a positive spillover will result that will tend to offset the substitution-based negative spillover usually hypothesized to result from the migration of polluting industries. Initial explorations suggest that this effect could also be very large.
Abstract Society uses metals derived from primary and secondary sources. Secondary sources include all metals that have entered the economy but no longer serve their initial purpose. The environmental benefits of increasing reliance on secondary metal production include conserving energy, landscapes, and natural resources, and reducing toxic and nontoxic waste streams. A variety of technologies are used to recover and process metals from waste streams and their use for metal production influences the amount of secondary metal that reenters the system. Environmental regulation also affects secondary metal production through laws that control emissions and govern the classification and treatment of metal-loaded wastes. Industry must develop better technology to isolate and recover maximum value from metals in waste streams, and governments must institute policies that remove barriers to their economically and environmentally sound recovery. Only through a concerted effort can society recover a maximum amount of metal from the industrial/social system to benefit the environment.
Abstract Global mobilization and dispersal of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) have been significantly increased by human activities. They are projected to increase even more in the future owing to growth in population and per-capita consumption of food and energy in the developing world, primarily Asia. Increased mobilization and distribution result in changes in precipitation acidity, ecosystem alkalinity and nutrient status, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations, and energy balance of the troposphere. Although increases in S and N mobilization cause increased environmental impacts, a leveling or decrease in mobilization does not result in a lessening of environmental impacts because of the accumulation of reactive S and N in environmental reservoirs. As S and N accumulate, ecosystems become saturated and S and N dispersal increases. Environmental impacts will only begin to lessen if mobilization rates decrease and as accumulated reactive S and N are converted to nonreactive forms or stored in long-term reservoirs.
Abstract Since the late 1980s, China has developed an extensive program of energy efficiency standards and labeling for household appliances. This development closely traces the rapid growth of appliance ownership and the domestic appliance industry and is an integral part of China's comprehensive energy conservation policy. The implementation of energy efficiency standards and labels for household appliances has not only achieved significant reductions in energy consumption and therefore greenhouse gas emissions in China, but it has also been instrumental in stimulating one of the world's largest appliance markets. This article reviews the historical development of Chinese programs, summarizes the most recent activities, and documents to the extent possible their impact on appliance efficiency and energy consumption.
Abstract Minimum energy efficiency standards are regulations that require products to meet specific energy efficiency requirements. Standards have been adopted in 17 countries plus the European Union. Standards have been set on more than 35 products, with refrigerators, air conditioners, ballasts, and freezers being the most common. Based on the available evidence, standards appear to be a very effective energy-saving policy. They have reduced energy use substantially in the United States and made good initial progress in other countries. The standards that have been implemented thus far appear to be cost effective to consumers and result in minimal adverse impacts on manufacturers. Available evidence indicates that the costs of actually implementing standards are commonly less than estimates made by manufacturers and government agencies during the standard-setting process. Standards are frequently a useful complement to other policies such as product labeling, incentives, and voluntary agreements. However, standards are not appropriate for all products and situations.
[Figure: see text] ▪ Abstract Ruth Patrick's scientific career has been devoted to the study of freshwater organisms in water. It started with studies of diatoms. She found one could interpret the condition of water by studying diatoms. This study of the ecology of diatoms expanded into ecological studies of communities of organisms that live in streams. By shifts in the structure of communities she was able to show the effects of various types of pollution on the aquatic ecosystem. This was the first time an organized team of biologists had been used to study the effects of pollution in streams. Through this research she showed that freshwater ecosystems were characterized by large numbers of species with very different environmental requirements operating in each stage of nutrient and energy transfer in the food web. These species belonged to many different phylogenetic groups. This redundancy gives stability to the system.
Reserves prouvees de gaz naturel au 1/1/82, 1/1/83 et 1/1/84 dans les differents pays de la region Asie/Pacifique. Productions et consommateurs de ces pays en 1983. Commerce exterieur de gaz naturel et de GNL en 1982 et 1983. Prevision du commerce exterieur pour la periode 1985-2000
The study presents the results for each country separately. This paper presents the regional profile by reviewing the power demand, supply, and fuel mix for the entire Asia-Pacific region, including 16 countries: Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Australia, and New Zealand. -from Authors
Emissions of principal greenhouse gases (GHGs) from Asia are increasing faster than those from any other continent. This is a result of rapid economic growth, as well as the fact that almost half of the world's population lives in Asian countries. In this paper, we provide estimates of emissions of the two principal greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (C0 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), from individual countries and areas. Recent literature has been reviewed for emission estimates for individual sources, such as carbon dioxide from cement manufacture, and methane from rice fields. There are very large uncertainties in many of these estimates, so several estimates are provided, where available. The largest anthropogenic source of CO 2 emissions is the use of fossil fuels. Energy consumption data from 1992 have been used to calculate estimated emissions of CO 2 from this source. In view of the ongoing negotiations to limit future greenhouse gas emissions, estimates of projected CO 2 emissions from the developing countries of Asia are also provided. These are likely to be 3 times their 1986 levels by 2010, under “business as usual” scenarios. Even with the implementation of energy efficiency measures and fuel switching where feasible, the emissions of CO 2 are likely to double within the same time period.
Codes of environmental management practice emerged as a tool of environmental policy in the late 1980s. Industry and other groups have developed codes for two purposes: to change the environmental behavior of participating firms and to increase public confidence in industry's commitment to environmental protection. This review examines five codes of environmental management practice: Responsible Care, the International Chamber of Commerce's Business Charter for Sustainable Development, ISO 14000, the CERES Principles, and The Natural Step. The first three codes have been drafted and promoted primarily by industry; the others have been developed by non-industry groups. These codes have spurred participating firms to introduce new practices, including the institution of environmental management systems, public environmental reporting, and community advisory panels. The extent to which codes are introducing a process of cultural change is considered in terms of four dimensions: new consciousness, norms, orga...
The purpose is to place the potential needs to control global carbon dioxide emissions in perspective. In order to limit carbon dioxide levels in the earth's atmosphere to no more than twice pre-anthropogenic levels, it will be necessary to limit carbon emissions to approximately 10 gigatons per yr by 2050. The implications of such a constraint to the developed countries, developing countries, and international community are assessed. It is clear that international priorities must be established and specific approaches developed in the first quarter of the 21st century to define the necessary, minimum-cost mitigation strategies. Because of the complexity of establishing a meaningful policy approach, imposition of an arbitrary carbon tax is unlikely to provide the constraints necessary to achieve a satisfactory earth atmosphere-carbon dioxide equilibrium state. -Author
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