Warsaw School of Economics
Recent publications
This paper examines the European natural gas market connectedness. Four main markets from the North-Western and South European regions are investigated with the Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness approach derived from the time-varying parameters VAR model with stochastic volatility. We show that the European natural gas market becomes increasingly integrated. Our results update previous findings, which pointed to the leading role of the British NBP as a source of shocks to natural gas price and volatility. Instead, we demonstrate that the two leading markets in Europe are the Dutch TTF and the German NCG. In recent years, however, the observed dominance of the indicated markets weakens, while spillovers from the Italian PSV gain importance. This could indicate the growing role of the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the launch of the pipeline from the Caspian Sea to Italy.
The main purpose of this study was to assess the level of and differences in regional support provided by municipalities for low-carbon investments in Poland in 2014–2020. The results of empirical studies allowed to answer the research question: in regions struggling with major environmental problems, are local government units actively seeking European Union funds for the development of a low-carbon economy? The research carried out, showed that the Silesian Voivodeship, which is the most urbanised and faces the greatest environmental problems, is characterized by the highest investment activity in terms of supporting the development of low-carbon economy co-financed from EU funds. Quantitative dependencies were also found between the level of local government's spendings on low-carbon investments and population density, the level of development quantified by Gross Domestic Product per capita, the number of national economy entities per 1000 inhabitants and the amount of own income per capita. Thus, higher investment activity of local governments in terms of developing a low-carbon economy distinguished regions with high demographic and economic potential; as a result, in case of local governments, this was true for those with a high level of the so-called “own income potential".
The host country environment is an important source of knowledge for multinational enterprises (MNEs). The resources and competencies of MNEs’ foreign subsidiaries (FS) as well as internal and external relationships are perceived to be critically important for their performance. This study intends to fill a cognitive gap in the understanding of factors influencing the innovation performance of FS established in Poland. FS innovation performance is explained by their resourcebased specific advantages, internal embeddedness in the corporate network, external embeddedness, and by interactions between their systemic power and autonomy. The analysis is based on a 2018 survey of 436 manufacturing FS in Poland. The ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model was applied, along with three quantile regression equations to provide additional layers of detail. We observed a positive influence of FS’ own assets on innovation performance, especially if coupled with their deep internal embeddedness. The study also found a positive influence of internal embeddedness on innovation performance enhanced for high/ medium-high-tech firms if coinciding with strong resource-based specific advantages. Another finding was that the external embeddedness of FS had a positive effect on their innovation performance. Besides, the positive influence of systemic power on innovation performance was only revealed for high/medium-high-tech FS, while the subsidiaries’ autonomy showed no significant influence on their innovation performance.
Innovation is progressively needed in responding to global challenges. Moreover, the increasing complexity of challenges implies demand for the usage of multisectoral and policy mix approaches. Wicked problems can be tackled by “integrated innovation” that combines the coordinated implementation of social, technological, and health innovation co-created by entities of the public sector, the private sector, the non-governmental sector, and the informal sector. This Research Topic focuses on filling the knowledge gaps about the selected types of innovation. First, regarding social innovation that can be understood as new strategies, concepts, products, services, and organizational forms that allow the satisfaction of human needs. Second, a technological innovation that refers to new or remarkably improved products, goods, or services in terms of their technical specifications, components, materials, software, design, or other functional features. Third, health innovation that focuses on novel or enhanced health policies, systems, products, technologies, services, and care delivery schemes to improve people's health. Finally, this Research Topic highlights attempts to develop integrated innovation that can add value to social policy, health policy, and environmental policy by improving efficiency, effectiveness, quality, sustainability, safety, and affordability.
Graph embedding is a transformation of nodes of a network into a set of vectors. A good embedding should capture the underlying graph topology and structure, node-to-node relationship, and other relevant information about the graph, its subgraphs, and nodes themselves. If these objectives are achieved, an embedding is a meaningful, understandable, and often compressed representation of a network. Unfortunately, selecting the best embedding is a challenging task and very often requires domain experts. In this paper, we extend the framework for evaluating graph embeddings that was recently introduced in [15]. Now, the framework assigns two scores, local and global, to each embedding that measure the quality of an evaluated embedding for tasks that require good representation of local and, respectively, global properties of the network. The best embedding, if needed, can be selected in an unsupervised way, or the framework can identify a few embeddings that are worth further investigation. The framework is flexible and scalable and can deal with undirected/directed and weighted/unweighted graphs.
Care for the elderly is one of the most important socioeconomic issues arising from the ageing of the population. Given the declining workforce in the care and health sectors in many countries, difficulties exist already in fully meeting care needs. Moreover, deinstitutionalization, which involves a transition from institutional to community‐based care, requires an increase in human resources in the care and health sectors. The article addresses long‐term care systems for the elderly and the conditions affecting the possibility for the Visegrád countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) to transition from a post‐socialist model (familialism by default/unsupported familialization) to a European care model based on deinstitutionalization. A further aim of the article is to show some differences in the provision of long‐term care for the elderly that are observed in Central Europe, and to underline that their specific characteristics should be taken into account when planning and designing public policies and guidelines for social policy at the European Union level. Les soins aux personnes âgées sont l’un des problèmes socioéconomiques les plus importants liés au vieillissement de la population. La main‐d’œuvre dans les secteurs du soin et de la santé étant en baisse, des difficultés se font déjà sentir pour répondre pleinement aux besoins médicaux. Par ailleurs, la désinstitutionnalisation, qui implique une transition des soins institutionnels aux soins communautaires, nécessite d’augmenter les ressources humaines dans les secteurs du soin et de la santé. L’article traite des systèmes de soins de longue durée destinés aux personnes âgées et des conditions régissant la possibilité pour les pays du groupe de Visegrád (Tchéquie, Hongrie, Pologne et Slovaquie) de passer d’un modèle postsocialiste (familialisme par défaut/familialisation sans accompagnement) à un modèle de soins européen basé sur la désinstitutionnalisation. L’objectif de cet article est également de montrer certaines différences dans la prestation de soins de longue durée pour les personnes âgées en Europe centrale et de souligner que leurs caractéristiques spécifiques devraient être prises en compte dans la planification et la conception de politiques publiques et de lignes directrices sur les politiques sociales au niveau de l’Union européenne. Los cuidados de las personas de edad avanzada constituyen uno de los problemas socioeconómicos más importantes que se derivan del envejecimiento de la población. Debido a la disminución de la mano de obra en los sectores de los cuidados y de la salud, ya se observan dificultades a la hora de satisfacer plenamente las necesidades de atención. Asimismo, la desinstitucionalización, que implica una transición de la atención institucional a la atención comunitaria, precisa que se dediquen más recursos humanos a los sectores de los cuidados y de la salud. El artículo aborda los sistemas de cuidados de larga duración a disposición de las personas de edad avanzada y los factores que condicionan la posibilidad de que los países de Visegrad (Chequia, Eslovaquia, Hungría y Polonia) pasen de un modelo postsocialista (familiarismo por defecto o familiarización sin asistencia) a un modelo de atención europeo basado en la desinstitucionalización. Otro de los objetivos del artículo consiste en poner de relieve algunas de las diferencias existentes en Europa Central en lo relativo a la prestación de cuidados de larga duración a personas de edad avanzada, así como enfatizar que es preciso considerar sus características específicas al planificar y formular políticas públicas y directrices en materia de política social en la Unión Europea. Die Altenpflege ist eine der wichtigsten sozioökonomischen Fragen, die sich aus der Bevölkerungsalterung ergeben. Angesichts des Arbeitskräfterückgangs im Pflege‐ und Gesundheitssektor gibt es bereits jetzt Schwierigkeiten, den Pflegebedarf vollständig zu decken. Darüber hinaus erfordert die Deinstitutionalisierung, die einen Übergang von der institutionellen zur gemeindenahen Pflege bedeutet, eine Aufstockung der Humanressourcen im Pflege‐ und Gesundheitssektor. Der Artikel befasst sich mit den Langzeitpflegesystemen für ältere Menschen und den Bedingungen, die die Möglichkeit für die Visegrád‐Länder (Tschechien, Ungarn, Polen und die Slowakei) beeinflussen, von einem postsozialistischen Modell (standardmäßige/unterstützte Familienzuständigkeit) zu einem europäischen – auf Deinstitutionalisierung basierenden – Pflegemodell überzugehen. Ein weiteres Ziel des Artikels ist es, einige der zu beobachtenden Unterschiede bei der Langzeitpflege für ältere Menschen in Mitteleuropa aufzuzeigen, und zu betonen, dass ihre spezifischen Merkmale bei der Planung und Gestaltung öffentlicher Maßnahmen und sozialpolitischer Leitlinien auf EU‐Ebene berücksichtigt werden sollten. В условиях старения населения уход за пожилыми людьми является одним из важнейших социоэкономических вопросов. Уже существующие сложности по удовлетворению потребностей в уходе в полном объёме усугубляются снижением количества работников в области здравоохранения и социального обслуживания. Более того, деинституционализация, предполагающая переход от системы институционального ухода к службам помощи по месту жительства, требует привлечения человеческих ресурсов в область здравоохранения и социального обслуживания. В статье рассматриваются системы долговременного ухода за пожилыми людьми и условия, оказывающие влияние на возможность перехода от постсоциалистической модели (по умолчанию ориентация на семейный уход/отсутствие поддержки семейного ухода) к европейской модели по уходу, основанной на деинституционализации, в странах Вышеградской группы (Чехия, Венгрия, Польша и Словакия). Также одна из целей статьи — показать некоторые различия в предоставлении услуг по долговременному уходу для пожилых людей в Центральной Европе и обратить внимание на то, что при разработке государственной политики и руководств в области социальной политики на уровне Европейского Союза необходимо учитывать характерные особенности этих стран. 老年人照护是人口老龄化带来的最重要的社会经济问题之一。鉴于照护和卫生部门的劳动力不断减少, 充分满足照护需求已经面临困难。此外, 去机构化涉及从机构照护向社区照护过渡, 需要增加照护和卫生部门的人力资源。本文讨论了老年人的长期照护体系, 以及维谢格拉德国家(捷克、匈牙利、波兰和斯洛伐克)从后社会主义模式(默认家庭主义/无支持家庭化)向去机构化的欧洲照护模式过渡过程中, 影响其可能性的条件。本文另一个目的是展示中欧国家在为老年人提供长期照护方面存在的一些差异, 强调在规划和设计欧盟层面的公共政策和社会政策及指南时, 应考虑这些国家的具体特点。 تعتبر رعاية المسنين من أهم القضايا الاجتماعية والاقتصادية الناشئة عن شيخوخة السكان. وبالنظر إلى انخفاض القوى العاملة في قطاعي الرعاية والصحة، توجد بالفعل صعوبات في تلبية احتياجات الرعاية بالكامل. وعلاوة على ذلك، يتطلب نزع الطابع المؤسسي الذي يتضمن الانتقال من الرعاية المؤسسية إلى الرعاية المجتمعية، زيادة الموارد البشرية في قطاعي الرعاية والصحة. ويتناول المقال أنظمة الرعاية طويلة الأمد لكبار السن والظروف التي تؤثر على إمكانية انتقال بلدان فيزيغراد (التشيك وهنغاريا وبولندا وسلوفاكيا) من نموذج ما بعد الاشتراكية (الأسرية المفترضة/الأسر غير المدعومة) إلى نموذج رعاية أوروبية قائم على عدم إضفاء الطابع المؤسسي. ويتمثل الهدف الآخر للمقال في إظهار بعض الاختلافات في توفير الرعاية طويلة الأمد للمسنين التي تمت ملاحظتها في أوروبا الوسطى، والتأكيد على أن خصائصها المحددة ينبغي أن تُراعى عند تخطيط وتصميم السياسات العامة والمبادئ التوجيهية للسياسة الاجتماعية على مستوى الاتحاد الأوروبي. Os cuidados com o idoso são uma das questões socioeconômicas mais importantes decorrentes do envelhecimento da população. Dada a diminuição da mão de obra nos setores de assistência e saúde, já existem dificuldades no atendimento integral das necessidades de cuidados. Além disso, a desinstitucionalização, que envolve uma transição da assistência institucional para a assistência comunitária, requer um aumento de recursos humanos nos setores de assistência e saúde. Este artigo aborda sistemas de cuidados de longa duração para idosos e as condições que afetam a possibilidade de países do Grupo de Visegrád (República Tcheca, Hungria, Polônia e Eslováquia) passarem de um modelo pós‐socialista (familismo por falta de opção, em inglês “familialism by default” ou “unsupported familialization”) para um modelo de cuidados europeu baseado na desinstitucionalização. Outro objetivo do artigo é mostrar algumas diferenças na prestação de cuidados de longa duração para idosos observadas na Europa Central, e ressaltar que suas características específicas devem ser levadas em conta no planejamento e na elaboração de políticas públicas e diretrizes para a política social em nível da União Europeia.
Faced with COVID-19 crisis, central banks have once again become one of the key players in the economies. The aim of this article is to analyse the actions of Central and Eastern European central banks within all their roles (monetary policy, micro-and macroprudential policy, deposit guaranteeing and resolution) during the first coronavirus wave. The analysis shows that they were active in various fields, not only those that were traditionally always assigned to central banks (i.e. monetary policy, although this was the major field of activity). Scope of the intervention naturally depended on the shape of the national financial safety net. At the same time, the use of monetary policy tools depended on the adopted monetary policy strategy. Practice of central banks’ actions shows that central banks with a wide range of monetary tools reacted later. It seems that the scope and intensity of the use of monetary policy tools was not influenced by the general role of the central bank in the financial safety net. The monetary toolkit used by banks was based on a standard set of instruments with modified conditions of application (scale, transaction parameters and their type, collaterals and counterparties). Although transactions with specific parameters were sometimes implemented for the first time, they can still be included in the framework of classic monetary policy tools. In areas other than monetary policy, central banks were much less active. The most disturbing seems to be the passivity in the field of macroprudential policy.
Ongoing demographic changes and global population ageing require organisations to pay special attention to their employment policies. With working life extension and age management increasingly included in discussions about reactive versus proactive personnel policies, the term 'generativity' gains special importance as an approach to managing a generationally diverse workforce. Generativity can be understood as an attitude of openness towards the younger generations that focuses on exchanging values, knowledge, and experiences with them. It is a source of positive emotions and better social relationships, personal fulfilment, good energy, and aliveness. In the paper, generativity is discussed in the framework of two theories: the socio-emotional selectivity theory (SST) and successful ageing theory (SOC). The aim of this paper is to assess the relationship between generativity and individual work outcomes. We considered both in-role and extra-role outcomes analysed in the job context. Meta-analysis is conducted of studies that investigate generativity and its relationships with motivational outcomes (job satisfaction, engagement, work motivation, affective commitment, self-efficacy), cognitive outcomes (attitudes toward retirement, career success, self-control), personal outcomes (wellbeing, health, job strain), relational outcomes and extra-role behaviours (organisational citizenship behaviour and sustainable behaviour). The analysis examines 65 independent samples that included 30,540 individuals, and considers the role of three moderators-the cultural context, the measurement method and age. It demonstrates that generativity has significant and positive motivational, cognitive and extra-role behaviour outcomes for workers and that it improves their well-being.
This article examines the citation practices of the provincial administrative courts in Poland in a sample of judgments issued in the years 2009–2016. The analysis strives to assess the factors affecting the use of other court citations and the prestige of provincial courts manifested in the higher citations of their verdicts. The methods used involve logistic and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions on the set of factors relating to court circuit characteristics, the performance of courts, the features of cases and the efficiency of the administration in a given province. The results indicate that, out of sixteen courts, there is only one provincial administrative court with high prestige. The number of citations is higher for more populated circuits and decreases with the number of employed judges in a court. While small courts cite more they are also more frequently cited than larger ones.
The current standard in agent-based economic modelling is effectively to conform to the technological view of the firm, wherein marginal costs play the central role. This is in contrast with the majority of theoretical research on business entities. The impact of marketing and demand-generation capabilities of firms has not been considered in quantitative theoretical frameworks. Moreover, competition and evolution of market shares has been most often modelled by the means of replicator dynamics. However, in its canonical form it is backward-looking, unaffected by any current variables; in a converse situation, the problem of ensuring mutual consistency of market shares changes arises. An alternative competition framework is proposed. An agent-based model is developed, in which firms are modelled as behavioural, contractual and procedural entities and their marketing affects the growth rate of demand. The proposed method of modelling firms' competition allows for representing markets with stationary, increasing, or decreasing concentration, with or without market leaders, and those composed of firms of similar size but transitioning to new stationary states of market concentration. It is demonstrated that the evolution of market concentration and the pace of marketing-enhanced demand growth depends on three factors: the size of possible market shares gains and losses per period, whether firms’ competitive power is related to their market share or not, and on the initial market composition. Moreover, enhancing demand growth is possible even in settings that are computational equivalents of perfectly competitive markets. JEL codes: D40, D90, L11, L22, M31
Was the rise of humankind inevitable? This chapter discusses a sequence of filters that the human civilization has passed to achieve the current level of development. It emphasizes the importance of crossing the threshold of net positive cumulative knowledge accumulation, underlying the rise of the homo sapiens as the dominant species on Earth. Human local control maximization is an emergent sub-routine of the grand process of species evolution which got out of evolutions hand. The chapter also speculates whether artificial general intelligence (AGI) will become the next filter for our civilization. There are at least two reasons why it may be. First, the orthogonality thesis: any level of intelligence can be coupled with more or less any final goal. Second, the sheer power that comes with intelligence. The AGI optimization process, a sub-routine of human local control maximization, may get out of hand just like human local control maximization got out of evolutions hand—through its pace, recursive self-improvement and greed for resources.
What is the future of human work? Will robots take all our jobs? The hardware–software framework organizes the past evidence on long-run employment trends and offers interesting predictions for the future. The key dichotomy present in the framework underscores that very different implications should be expected whether machines replace human brawn (hardware) or brains (software), i.e., whether we are discussing mechanization of physical tasks or automation of cognitive tasks. Given that modern production processes are highly complex, it is also important whether automation is partial or full. Under partial automation, essential non-automated cognitive tasks are becoming scarce, boosting employment and wages in jobs that perform these tasks. Under full automation, in contrast, human cognitive work becomes substitutable with machines. Automation may gradually enter into all job categories, including also the jobs in research and development, potentially causing technological unemployment and increasing income inequality, while also potentially accelerating technological progress and economic growth.
Will accelerating economic growth carry on into the future? For a better understanding of the current digital era as well as for pursuing informed digital policy, we need a global system of data accounts. Notwithstanding, highly suggestive evidence already exists that the digital revolution has opened a new data dimension in which growth is an order of magnitude faster than growth in GDP. With this in hand, the current chapter attempts to position the coming decades against two polar benchmarks: secular stagnation and technological singularity. Extrapolating past trends suggests that once global population plateaus, world GDP will probably slow down, too. Growth in the digital domain will likely continue, though, possibly producing another technological revolution in energy/hardware or creating artificial general intelligence (AGI). If the latter possibility materializes, it will almost certainly mark the arrival of technological singularity. The probability of a long-standing stagnation or decline is, by contrast, assessed as non-negligible but low.
One important lesson from past evidence is that accelerating economic growth, fueled by the unstoppable human drive to maximize local control, tends to have mounting unintended side effects. This chapter discusses an array of ecological and psychological consequences of human local control maximization. Both types of effects have existed throughout the entire human history but were not clearly visible until relatively recently. Ecological side effects began to be felt most strongly after the industrial revolution, and psychological side effects—after the digital revolution. The chapter also tackles the issue of information overflow, or cognitive bandwidth problem, which increasingly stands in the way of informed decision making, from everyday life to global policy, and reduces the productivity of scientific research.
Looking back at all the impressive achievements of humankind begs the question: Why did we achieve it? What was the driving force behind these developments? This chapter looks for a factual answer to the question, what are the key goals pursued in human life? It invokes the instrumental convergence thesis, originating from the research on artificial intelligence, and argues that this thesis can also be applied broadly to biological life and specifically to humans. The thesis claims that for a variety of final goals, the same four instrumental goals will also be followed: self-preservation, efficiency, creativity and resource acquisition. The union of these four goals can be called local control maximization. It is argued that the development of human civilization has begun once humans, as the first species on Earth, crossed the threshold of net positive cumulative knowledge accumulation. This allowed our ancestors to conquer territory, improve technology and gradually improve their capacity to maximize local control.
An important factor that contributed to the long-run success of the human species in furthering its local control, conquering the world and building a global economy, is increasing returns to scale (IRS) in production and research and development. IRS means that proportional increases in inputs yield more than proportional increases in output. This chapter explains Paul Romer’s observation that technological ideas are a source of IRS because they are non-rivalrous. Then it proceeds to illustrate how the scale of operations increased after every technological revolution in software: the cognitive, scientific and digital revolution, leading to the gradual development of the global research network and the global economy. It is technological progress, not institutions, which underlies lasting economic growth. The causality from institutions to technology and economic growth is observed only when the institutions are blatantly bad. Finally, the chapter also provides a case for development of better global institutions for pursuing digital policy, needed in the current digital era.
The humankind pursues local control maximization by performing premeditated actions, the sum of which sets the course of development of the human civilization. The macroeconomic way of looking at it assumes an aggregate production function, describing how inputs are transformed into aggregate output. This chapter introduces the hardware–software framework, which assumes that producing output requires (i) physical action and (ii) code, a set of instructions describing the action. Physical action is performed by hardware while the code is provided by the software. Hardware and software are mutually complementary and each of them is essential for production. The chapter proceeds to characterize hardware and software inputs used across human history and offers a typology of final outputs. It elucidates how the accumulation of hardware and software inputs and their cumulative technological improvements propelled accelerating economic growth over the millennia, and how artificial intelligence may carry this process into the future.
This chapter discusses four important challenges of the digital era: managing global inequality, augmenting democracy, addressing the scale mismatch between economy and policy and new moral challenges posed by automation and artificial intelligence. Technologies of the digital era, due to their non-rivalrous character, are a potent force of income divergence, contributing to “the rise of the global 1%”. Due to the cognitive bandwidth problem stemming from the associated information deluge, the digital era also poses a major challenge to representative democracy. Another problem is that while the economy has become global in the digital era, policy has remained at most national—a configuration that is likely unstable and subject to coordination failures. Finally, the chapter also addresses the emerging moral challenges. How to maintain a sense of purpose and a reasonable extent of local control among people who cannot contribute to the economy? And what will be the moral status of non-human forms of advanced intelligence?
The chapter documents the trajectory of accelerating global economic growth and technological progress across the entire human history. Against the backdrop of several existing aggregative measures of development, a two-level measurement approach is proposed, keeping aggregate human control as the unique overarching frame but also using era-specific measures of development. The proposed approach formalizes the idea that each technological revolution opens a new dimension of development, such as habitat capacity, ecosystem information, population, scientific knowledge, gross domestic product (GDP) and useful data. Next, the chapter documents the growth effects of technological revolutions in energy (hardware): the agricultural and industrial revolution, and in learning (software): the cognitive, scientific and digital revolution. After each revolution, growth accelerated by orders of magnitude. The global development picture is blurred, however, by the facts that technologies from consecutive eras may coincide in time and there are feedback loops across the eras (mechanization of agriculture, digitization of industry, etc.).
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4,288 members
Magdalena Kachniewska
  • Institute of Transport Infrastructure and Mobility
Paweł Kubicki
  • Institute of Social Economy
Andrzej Klimczuk
  • Department of Public Policy
Elżbieta Biernat
  • Collegium of World Economy, Tourism Economy Research Unit
Joanna Zukowska
  • Institute of Enterprise
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Tomasz Szapiro
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