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    ABSTRACT: Qualitative business survey data are used widely to provide indicators of eco-nomic activity ahead of the publication of official data. Traditional indicators ex-ploit only aggregate survey information, namely the proportions of respondents who report "up" and "down". This paper examines disaggregate or firm-level survey re-sponses. It considers how the responses of the individual firms should be quantified and combined if the aim is to produce an early indication of official output data. Having linked firms' categorical responses to official data using ordered discrete-choice models, the paper proposes a statistically efficient means of combining the disparate estimates of aggregate output growth which can be be constructed from the responses of individual firms. An application to firm-level survey data from the Confederation of British Industry shows that the proposed indicator can provide more accurate early estimates of output growth than traditional indicators.
    Full-text · Article · Jun 2013 · Journal of Applied Econometrics
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    ABSTRACT: Growing concerns that contemporary patterns of economic development are unsustainable have given rise to an extensive empirical literature on population growth, consumption increases, and our growing use of nature's products and services. However, far less has been done to reach a theoretical understanding of the socio-ecological processes at work at the population-consumption-environment nexus. In this Research Article, we highlight the ubiquity of externalities (which are the unaccounted for consequences for others, including future people) of decisions made by each of us on reproduction, consumption, and the use of our natural environment. Externalities, of which the "tragedy of the commons" remains the most widely discussed illustration, are a cause of inefficiency in the allocation of resources across space, time, and contingencies; in many situations, externalities accentuate inequity as well. Here, we identify and classify externalities in consumption and reproductive decisions and use of the natural environment so as to construct a unified theoretical framework for the study of data drawn from the nexus. We show that externalities at the nexus are not self-correcting in the marketplace. We also show that fundamental nonlinearities, built into several categories of externalities, amplify the socio-ecological processes operating at the nexus. Eliminating the externalities would, therefore, require urgent collective action at both local and global levels.
    No preview · Article · Apr 2013 · Science
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    ABSTRACT: The Netherlands pioneered an early modern ‘Retail Revolution’, facilitating the Consumer Revolution. We analyze 959 Dutch retail ratios using multivariate regressions. Retail density rose with female headship everywhere. Density was high in Holland, but moderate in intermediate provinces and low in Overijssel. Differences in retail density between large and small settlements were trivial in Holland, moderate in intermediate provinces, and prominent in Overijssel. Retail ratios stagnated everywhere across the eighteenth century but rose sharply after 1800. The Dutch Retail Revolution did not unleash ineluctable growth, we conclude, but varied significantly with agrarian structure, the institutional powers of guilds, and female autonomy.
    Full-text · Article · Jan 2013 · Explorations in Economic History
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Top publications last week by reads

 
Industrial Relations Journal 06/2008; 39(4):258 - 295. DOI:10.1111/j.1468-2338.2008.00488.x
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New Directions in Economic Methodology Edited by Roger Backhouse, 01/1994: pages 257-85; Routledge.
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