20
54.00
2.70
29

Recent PublicationsView all

  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Energy system models are often used to assess the potential role of hydrogen and electric powertrains for reducing transport CO2 emissions in the future. In this paper, we review how different energy system models have represented both vehicles and fuel infrastructure in the past and we provide guidelines for their representation in the future. In particular, we identify three key modelling decisions: the degree of car market segmentation, the imposition of market share constraints and the use of lumpy investments to represent infrastructure. We examine each of these decisions in a case study using the UK MARKAL model. While disaggregating the car market principally affects only the transition rate to the optimum mix of technologies, market share constraints can greatly change the optimum mix so should be chosen carefully. In contrast, modelling infrastructure using lumpy investments has little impact on the model results. We identify the development of new methodologies to represent the impact of behavioural change on transport demand as a key challenge for improving energy system models in the future.
    Full-text · Article · Feb 2014 · International Journal of Hydrogen Energy
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Critical energy policy decisions rely on expert assessments of key future uncertainties. But existing modelling techniques that help form these expert assessments often ignore the existence of uncertainty. Consequently, techniques to measure these uncertainties are of increasing importance. We use one technique, expert elicitation, to assess six key uncertain parameters with 25 UK energy experts across academia, government and industry. We obtain qualitative descriptions of the uncertain parameters and a novel data set of probability distributions describing individual expert beliefs. We conduct a sensitivity analysis on weights for a linear opinion pool and show that aggregated median beliefs in 2030 are: for oil price $120/barrel (90% CI: 51, 272); for greenhouse gas price $34/tCO2e (90% CI: 5, 256) and for levelised cost of low-carbon electricity 17.1 US cents/kWh (90% CI: 8.3, 31.0). The quantitative results could inform model validation, help benchmark policy makers’ beliefs or provide probabilistic inputs to models.
    Full-text · Article · Oct 2013 · Energy Policy
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The UK Government has unveiled an ambitious retrofit programme that seeks significant improvement to the energy efficiency of the housing stock. High quality data on the energy efficiency of buildings and their related energy demand is critical to supporting and targeting investment in energy efficiency. Using existing home improvement programmes over the past 15 years, the UK Government has brought together data on energy efficiency retrofits in approximately 13 million homes into the Homes Energy Efficiency Database (HEED), along with annual metered gas and electricity use for the period of 2004–2007. This paper describes the HEED sample and assesses its representativeness in terms of dwelling characteristics, the energy demand of different energy performance levels using linked gas and electricity meter data, along with an analysis of the impact retrofit measures has on energy demand. Energy savings are shown to be associated with the installation of loft and cavity insulation, and glazing and boiler replacement. The analysis illustrates this source of ‘in-action’ data can be used to provide empirical estimates of impacts of energy efficiency retrofit on energy demand and provides a source of empirical data from which to support the development of national housing energy efficiency retrofit policies.
    Full-text · Article · Sep 2013 · Energy Policy
Information provided on this web page is aggregated encyclopedic and bibliographical information relating to the named institution. Information provided is not approved by the institution itself. The institution’s logo (and/or other graphical identification, such as a coat of arms) is used only to identify the institution in a nominal way. Under certain jurisdictions it may be property of the institution.