Università commerciale Luigi Bocconi
Recent publications
Multinational mobile network operators (MNOs) rapidly emerged in the early 1990s and for a decade and a half were the dominant actors in their industry. We analyze the development and competitiveness of a typical MNO, Telenor. With the introduction of 4G in 2010, we show that Telenor, like other MNOs largely failed to respond to the opportunity that connectivity provided to develop digital services. Instead, these were developed by technology platform companies such as Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Telenor became a marginalized supplier of standardized internet connectivity. We argue that the ‘decade of lost opportunity’ (2010–2020) for Telenor was a product of a lack of ‘recombinant firm-specific advantages’ (FSARs). With the launch of 5G, an emerging global digital infrastructure, this sidelining is set to intensify unless Telenor responds to this new opportunity by developing B2B digital services. We analyze the FSARs that are necessary for a successful transition of capturing the value that 5G provides and the degree to which they are present, or potentially present, in Telenor.
This paper contributes to the analysis of quantitative indicators (i.e., red flags or screens ) to detect corruption in public procurement. It presents an approach to evaluate corruption risk in public tenders through standardized ML tools applied to detailed data on the content of calls for tenders. The method is applied to roadwork contracts in Italy and three main contributions are reported. First, the study expands the set of commonly discussed indicators in the literature to new ones derived from operative practices of police forces and the judiciary. Second, using novel and unique data on firm-level corruption risk, this study validates the effectiveness of the indicators. Third, it quantifies the increased corruption-prediction ability when indicators that are known to be unavailable to the corruption-monitoring authority are included in the prediction exercise. Regarding the specific red flags, we find a systematic association between high corruption risk and the use of multi-parameter awarding criteria. Furthermore, predictability of the red flag makes them ineffective as prediction tools: the most obvious and scrutinized red flags are either uncorrelated with corruption or, even, negatively associated with it, as it is the case for invoking special procedures due to “urgency,” or the extent of publicity of the call for tender.
Background Syphilis case notifications among men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) have increased markedly over the past two decades in Europe. We tested several potential factors for this resurgence. Methods Self-reported data from two cross-sectional waves of the European MSM Internet Survey (EMIS-2010 and EMIS-2017, N = 278,256 participants living in 31 European countries) were used to fit multivariable hierarchical logistic regression models designed to evaluate potential social, behavioural, and interventional determinants of syphilis diagnosis. Additional multivariable hierarchical negative binomial models investigated determinants of the number of non-steady male condomless anal intercourse (CAI) partners. We tested the hypothesis that more CAI and syphilis-screening are associated with syphilis resurgence, both linked to use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Findings Between 2010 and 2017, incidence of syphilis diagnosis in the previous 12 months rose from 2.33% (95%CI: 2.26–2.40) of respondents reporting a syphilis diagnosis in 2010 compared with 4.54% (95%CI: 4.42–4.66) in 2017. Major factors contributing to syphilis diagnosis were living with diagnosed HIV (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.67, 95%CI: 2.32–3.07), each additional non-steady male CAI partner (aOR 1.01, 95%CI: 1.01–1.01), recency of STI-screening (previous month vs no screening, aOR 25.76, 95%CI: 18.23–36.41), selling sex (aOR 1.45, 95%CI: 1.27–1.65), and PrEP use (aOR 3.02, 95%CI: 2.30–3.96). Living with diagnosed HIV (adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 3.91, 95%CI: 3.77–4.05), selling sex (aIRR 4.39, 95%CI: 4.19–4.59), and PrEP use (aIRR 5.82, 95%CI: 5.29–6.41) were associated with a higher number of non-steady male CAI partners. The association between PrEP use and increased chance of syphilis diagnosis was mediated by STI-screening recency and number of non-steady male CAI partners, both substantially higher in 2017 compared to 2010. Interpretation Syphilis cases are concentrated in three MSM population groups: HIV-diagnosed, PrEP users, and sex workers. Behavioural and interventional changes, particularly more non-steady male CAI partners and recency of STI-screening, are major contributing factors for increasing syphilis diagnoses among MSM in Europe. Funding European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
For several decades, China tried to catch up in the automotive industry, yet until recently with little success. Now, the paradigm shift from internal combustion to electric driving has opened a window of opportunity to catch up with global competitors. The Chinese government provided a strong policy push to become a lead market, allowing firms to accumulate technological capabilities and increasingly turn into lead manufacturers. This paper combines patent data and qualitative analyses of subsector trends to assess the technological capabilities and the international competitiveness of the Chinese industry in electromobility. We find that the country is indeed leapfrogging ahead in some domains (electric buses, lithium batteries) and rapidly catching up in others, including passenger vehicles. Ambitious green transformation policies can thus spur catch-up and competitiveness.
Luxury companies have often been exposed to criticism stemming from the use of local cultural codes. This paper investigates the meaning and risks of Cultural Appropriation (CA) in Personal Luxury Goods (PLG). Findings from the case study analysis reveal that respect, giving credit, and research based on local collaborations can help companies continue to be inspired by other cultures without running the risk of appropriation.
Using a and a unique set of Italian non-listed Unlikely to Pay (UTP) positions, that consist in the phase that precedes the insolvency but where it is still possible for the company to succeed in restructuring, this paper aims to analyze the relationships between corporate governance characteristics and financial distress status. We compare the performance of corporate governance variables in predicting corporate defaults, using both the Logit and Random Forest models, which previous researchers have deemed to be the most efficient machine learning techniques. Our results show that the use of corporate governance variables – especially with regards to CEO renewal and stability in the composition of the board of directors – increases the accuracy of the Random Forest technique and influences the success of the turnaround process. This paper also confirms the Random Forest technique’s ability to significantly outperform the Logit model in terms of accuracy.
Collaborative governance arrangements are frequently criticized for achieving collaboration at the expense of legitimacy and accountability. We explore the conditions under which legitimacy and accountability can occur in collaborative governance, ultimately aiming to discover whether collaborative arrangements can 'have it all', simultaneously being both legitimate and accountable. We leverage the Collaborative Governance Case Database to analyse a diversity of cases, employing a rich, qualitative comparative analysis. We find that legitimacy and accountability do co-exist in some cases and identify competing sets of conditions for this concurrence. Based on this exploration, we formulate propositions for future research.
We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention bottom up due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their prominence. The Bordalo, Gennaioli & Shleifer (2012, 2013b, 2020) models of salience show how bottom-up attention can distort economic choice by distracting decision makers from their immediate goals or from relevant choice attributes. This approach unifies probability weighting, menu effects, reference points, and framing as distinct manifestations of bottom-up attention. We highlight new predictions and discuss open conceptual questions, as well as potential applications in finance, industrial organization, advertising, and politics. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Economics, Volume 14 is August 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
Investments in information technologies (IT) and skilled labor are often highlighted as central for firms wishing to improve their performance. However, what mechanisms enable these investments to improve firm performance? The literature suggests two such channels: the production frontier of upgrading the input factors and the technical efficiency of exploiting the input factors in a more efficient way. We study these channels for increasing firms' value added in a stochastic frontier model. Notably, we find that investments in IT and skilled labor improve firms’ value added, but they do so through different channels. Multi-purpose hardware investments mainly improve efficiency in concert with other input factors, while investments in application-oriented software and skilled labor generally work by raising the production frontier itself.
Most social phenomena are inherently complex and hard to measure, often due to under-reporting, stigma, social desirability bias, and rapidly changing external circumstances. This is for instance the case of Intimate Partner Violence (IPV), a highly-prevalent social phenomenon which has drastically risen in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper explores whether big data-an increasingly common tool to track, nowcast, and forecast social phenomena in close-to-real time-might help track and understand IPV dynamics. We leverage online data from Google Trends to explore whether online searches might help reach "hard-to-reach" populations such as victims of IPV using Italy as a case-study. We ask the following questions: Can digital traces help predict instances of IPV-both potential threat and actual violent cases-in Italy? Is their predictive power weaker or stronger in the aftermath of crises such as COVID-19? Our results suggest that online searches using selected keywords measuring different facets of IPV are a powerful tool to track potential threats of IPV before and during global-level crises such as the current COVID-19 pandemic, with stronger predictive power post outbreaks. Conversely, online searches help predict actual violence only in post-outbreak scenarios. Our findings, validated by a Facebook survey, also highlight the important role that socioeconomic status (SES) plays in shaping online search behavior, thus shedding new light on the role played by third-level digital divides in determining the predictive power of digital traces. More specifically, they suggest that forecasting might be more reliable among high-SES population strata. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-022-09619-2.
Background: Starting from the final months of 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant expanded globally, swiftly replacing Delta, the variant that was dominant at the time. Many uncertainties remain about the epidemiology of Omicron; here, we aim to estimate its generation time. Methods: We used a Bayesian approach to analyze 23,122 SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals clustered in 8903 households as determined from contact tracing operations in Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout January 2022. We estimated the distribution of the intrinsic generation time (the time between the infection dates of an infector and its secondary cases in a fully susceptible population), realized household generation time, realized serial interval (time between symptom onset of an infector and its secondary cases), and contribution of pre-symptomatic transmission. Findings: We estimated a mean intrinsic generation time of 6.84 days (95% credible intervals, CrI, 5.72-8.60), and a mean realized household generation time of 3.59 days (95%CrI: 3.55-3.60). The household serial interval was 2.38 days (95%CrI 2.30-2.47) with about 51% (95%CrI 45-56%) of infections caused by symptomatic individuals being generated before symptom onset. Interpretation: These results indicate that the intrinsic generation time of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant might not have shortened as compared to previous estimates on ancestral lineages, Alpha and Delta, in the same geographic setting. Like for previous lineages, pre-symptomatic transmission appears to play a key role for Omicron transmission. Estimates in this study may be useful to design quarantine, isolation and contact tracing protocols and to support surveillance (e.g., for the accurate computation of reproduction numbers). Funding: The study was partially funded by EU grant 874850 MOOD.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a dramatic impact on families’ lives because of the increased demands of housework and childcare. Much of the additional burden has been shouldered by women. Yet, the rise in remote working also has the potential to increase paternal involvement in family life and thus to reduce gender role inequalities. This effect depends on the working arrangements of each partner, whether working remotely, at their usual workplace, or ceasing work altogether. Using two waves of an ad-hoc survey conducted in April and November 2020, we show that the time spent by women in domestic activities did not depend on their partners’ working arrangements. Conversely, men spent fewer hours helping with housework and home schooling when their partners were at home. Although men who worked remotely or did not work at all devoted more time to household activities during the second wave of COVID-19, the increased time they spent at home did not seem to lead to a reallocation of couples’ time.
Health technology assessment (HTA) has been growing in use over the past 40 years, especially in its impact on decisions regarding the reimbursement, adoption, and use of new drugs, devices, and procedures. In countries or jurisdictions with “pluralistic” healthcare systems, there are multiple payers or sectors, each of which could potentially benefit from HTA. Nevertheless, a single HTA, conducted centrally, may not meet the needs of these different actors, who may have different budgets, current standards of care, populations to serve, or decision-making processes. This article reports on the research conducted by an ISPOR Health Technology Assessment Council Working Group established to examine the specific challenges of conducting and using HTA in countries with pluralistic healthcare systems. The Group used its own knowledge and expertise, supplemented by a narrative literature review and survey of US payers, to identify existing challenges and any initiatives taken to address them. We recommend that countries with pluralistic healthcare systems establish a national focus for HTA, develop a uniform set of HTA methods guidelines, ensure that HTAs are produced in a timely fashion, facilitate the use of HTA in the local setting, and develop a framework to encourage transparency in HTA. These efforts can be enhanced by the development of good practice guidance from ISPOR or similar groups and increased training to facilitate local use of HTA.
In this paper, I first discuss the concept of ‘Grotian Moment’ in the context of the capacity of international organizations to contribute to the formation and identification of customary international law. Afterward, I apply three levels to discuss the time element of the formation of custom. At the micro-level of the institutional practice, the time required to form a customary norm may depend on whether each form of practice is directed to the institutional or to the international dimension. At the level of the organ, I reflect on the difference played by the presence or absence of member States in the institutional organ that adopts the practice relevant for custom formation. At the macro-level of the characteristics of the organization, I distinguish between so-called supranational and functional organizations. In general, I exclude the relevance of speaking in terms of a ‘Moment’ that produces a paradigm shift, and I stress the continuous change to which international law is subject.
We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges posed by the rational expectations revolution, most importantly the idea that economic agents are forward-looking. Second, belief overreaction can account for many long-standing empirical puzzles in macro and finance, which emphasize the extreme volatility and boom-bust dynamics of key time series, such as stock prices, credit, and investment. Third, overreaction relies on psychology and is disciplined by survey data on expectations. This suggests that relaxing the assumption of rational expectations is a promising strategy, helps theory and evidence go together, and promises a unified view of a great deal of data.
It is well established that temperature variability affects a range of outcomes relevant to human welfare, including health, emotion and mood, and productivity across a number of economic sectors. However, a critical and still unresolved empirical question is whether temperature variation has a long-lasting effect on economic productivity and, therefore, whether damages compound over time in response to long-lived changes in temperature expected with climate change. Several studies have identified a relationship between temperature and gross domestic product (GDP), but empirical evidence as to the persistence of these effects is still weak. This paper presents a novel approach to isolate the persistent component of temperature effects on output using lower frequency temperature variation. The effects are heterogeneous across countries but collectively, using three different GDP datasets, we find evidence of persistent effects, implying temperature affects the determinants of economic growth, not just economic productivity. This, in turn, means that the aggregate effects of climate change on GDP may be far larger and far more uncertain than currently represented in integrated assessment models used to calculate the social cost of carbon.
Healthcare delivery reorganization during the COVID-19 emergency may have had a significant impact on access to care for older adults with chronic conditions. We investigated such impact among all adults with chronic conditions aged ≥ 65 years, identified through the electronic health databases of two local health agencies—ATS Brianza and ATS Bergamo—from the Lombardy region, Italy. We considered hospitalizations for 2020 compared to the average 2017–2019 and quantified differences using rate ratios (RRs). Overall, in 2017–2019 there were a mean of 374,855 older adults with ≥ 1 chronic condition per year in the two ATS and 405,371 in 2020. Hospitalizations significantly decreased from 84,624 (225.8/1000) in 2017–2019 to 78,345 (193.3/1000) in 2020 (RR 0.86). Declines were reported in individuals with many chronic conditions and for most Major Diagnostic Categories, except for diseases of the respiratory system. The strongest reductions were observed in hospitalizations for individuals with active tumours, particularly for surgical ones. Hospitalization rates increased in individuals with diabetes, likely due to COVID-19-related diseases. Although determinants of the decrease in demand and supply for care among chronic older adults are to be further explored, this raises awareness on their impacts on chronic patients’ health in the medium and long run.
A socially patterned epidemic of deaths of despair is a signal feature of American society in the twenty-first century, involving rising mortality from substance use disorders and self-harm at the bottom of the class structure. In the present review, we compare this population health crisis to that which ravaged Eastern Europe at the tail end of the previous century. We chart their common upstream causes: violent social dislocations wrought by rapid economic change and attendant public policies. By reviewing the extant social scientific and epidemiological literature, we probe a collection of dominant yet competing explanatory frameworks and spotlight avenues for future sociological contributions to this growing but underdeveloped domain of research. Deaths of despair are deeply rooted in socioeconomic dislocations that shape health behavior and other proximate causes of health inequality; therefore, sociology has great untapped potential in analyzing the social causes of deaths of despair. Comparative sociological research could significantly extend the extant public health and economics scholarship on deaths of despair by exploring the variegated lived experience of socioeconomic change in different institutional contexts, relying on sociological concepts such as fundamental causes, social reproduction, social disintegration, alienation, or anomie. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Sociology, Volume 48 is July 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
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8,150 members
Maurizio Zollo
  • Department of Management and Technology
Eduardo Missoni
  • Department of Policy Analysis and Public Management
Renato Orsato
  • SDA Bocconi School of Management
Valentina Bosetti
  • Ettore Bocconi Department of Economics
Alessia Melegaro
  • Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics
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