Transportøkonomisk institutt, TØI

How should a multinational enterprise (MNE) shape its own agility in response to the environments in which it operates? In this paper we argue that proactive investments in switching-flexibility, e.g., to facilitate future relocations of production assets, can be a powerful tool for handling international business (IB) volatility. If options to invest in future flexibility are exercised strategically, international relocation may become a more frequent phenomenon in high than in low volatility industries. This prediction contrasts the value-of-waiting recommendation of the classical real options literature, which suggests that relocation becomes less frequent if volatility is high. The differences in predictions stem from a change in perspective—from exogenous flexibility in the classical literature to endogenous flexibility in this study. Optimal proactive investments in future agility increase the value of a firm and enhance the firm’s ability to handle risk. This suggests that MNEs operating in volatile and competitive international markets typically become more agile than firms operating in stable environments. The paper’s proposition is supported by illustrative cases from ocean industries and by a real options model with endogenous reversibility. The model shows that optimal proactive investments in flexibility may tighten the entry and exit threshold spread for higher volatility.

Purpose The economic value generated in processes along product life cycles can satisfy the needs and pleasures of the earners. In this study, we investigate whether that economic value can lead to positive health benefits for workers and other people through subsequent economic exchanges, and whether such benefits can be quantified in the context of social life cycle assessment (SLCA). Methods A brief literature review on the connection between the generation of economic value and health is provided. This review identifies two main impact pathways: the materialistic pathway and the psychosocial pathway. Of these, this paper focusses on developing characterization factors for the materialistic pathway. They are derived by multiplying a country-level income health factor (IHF) with a process-level value added (VA). The IHF was derived from a regression analysis of country-level life expectancy and income data. The VA can be calculated for each individual process based on differences in constituent and output prices. Results and discussion IHFs are highest for low-income countries, such as Somalia, and lowest for high-income countries, such as Luxembourg. The characterization factors can be multiplied by flows related to the functional unit, yielding results in disability-adjusted life years (DALY). The approach is illustrated with a simple unit process representing artisanal cobalt mining, showing that the magnitude of positive health impacts from economic value can be considerable, which suggests it is important to consider these in SLCA. Conclusions This work takes further steps towards developing a method that relates the generation of economic value to positive health impacts, with explicitly calculated characterization factors and fewer constraints compared to previous attempts at assessing health benefits from economic value in SLCA. Limitations include the need for continuous updates of the characterization factors.

Most net-zero emissions targets require electrification of the entire light-duty vehicle fleet, and before that the electrification of all new vehicle sales. In this paper, we review literature on demand-side issues related to achieving 100% zero-emissions vehicle sales, focusing on plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). We discuss potential demand-side challenges to increasing PEV sales and related research gaps, including consumer factors (perceptions, knowledge, and consumer characterises), demand-focused policy (incentives), infrastructure, and energy prices. While global PEV sales have substantially increased in recent years, several challenges remain: some demographic groups are currently underrepresented among PEV buyers (e.g. renters, lower income buyers), some car drivers are resistant to PEVs, incentives are influential but have predominantly benefited higher-income new-car buyers and are being phased out, infrastructure is not sufficiently developed or equally distributed, infrastructure is not user friendly, and some households lack charging access. Some issues we identify may be related to the early stage of the PEV market, though will need to be addressed to reach higher PEV sales and PEV fleet shares. Finally, we outline areas where more research is needed to understand and guide the PEV transition.

Meta-analyses, which present the best source of information on the effectiveness of interventions, are influenced by several biases. One category relates to the convenience of selective inclusion of those primary studies, which are more easily available than others. This availability bias includes bias from excluding the grey literature, bias from excluding non-English literature, and bias from excluding older studies. Existing studies are not conclusive about the impacts of this bias; in addition, none of them focus on road safety meta-analyses. To fill this gap, the present paper consisted of two studies: (1) exploring the presence of availability bias in road safety meta-analyses, and (2) demonstrating the impact of availability bias in several example meta-analyses. Based on an analysis of 80 existing meta-analyses, the first study concluded that compared to the medicine meta-analyses, the road safety meta-analyses use a longer time range, are more often restricted in terms of language, and less often involve the grey literature. The second study utilized selected unrestricted data samples to demonstrate the impact of availability bias in seven meta-analyses. The differences in intervention effectiveness in terms of crash frequency changes between unrestricted and restricted scenarios were identified. This shows that the search restrictions clearly lead to availability bias, which influences the differences in meta-analysis results.

Universal design has played a modest role in Norwegian tourism policy, despite its potential for contributing to a more socially, economically and environmentally sustainable tourism industry. The increased interest in sustainability labeling schemes among tourism actors represents an opportunity to work towards universal design of tourism, provided these schemes encompass universal design criteria. Standards for universal design are important in creating recognizable solutions, not least for visitors who often consume services across different sectors in unfamiliar environments. Against this background, we investigated whether sustainable tourism labeling schemes include suggestions made in standards for universal design. Based on previous research on universal design in the transport sector, a coding structure was constructed and used to analyze a sample of 13 tourism-related standards for universal design and five sustainability labeling schemes used by Norwegian tourism actors. Findings show that labeling schemes for sustainable tourism to a very limited extent incorporate measures described in standards for universal design. Moreover, both labeling schemes and standards are primarily aimed at the physical environment rather than the organizational or social environments, and both dedicate little attention to employees. Nevertheless, standards for universal design comprise a much wider range of measures and user-groups. Integrating them into popular sustainability labeling schemes seems pertinent to raise awareness and foster practices that contribute to improve universal design of tourism.

Universal design (UD) relates to many aspects of public transport (PT), comprising the vehicles/wagons, stops/stations, and access/egress to/from stops. While some UD elements are decisive for relatively few, others enhance the overall PT quality and subsequently improve the well-being of many users. If the service quality is improved, some users will be willing to pay more, either in terms of ticket price or travel time. Improved UD elements in PT therefore increase social benefits for public transport users, in economic terms, even if ticket costs are maintained unchanged. PT users in Norway have been asked to choose between journey alternatives with varying levels of UD elements between the alternatives. These UD elements comprised: a) on-board facilities and driver quality; b) stop/station qualities: shelter, seating, safety, lighting, information; and c) the qualities of the area surrounding stops/stations: road surface quality / icing, lighting, facilities/amenities, information. In total, 25 UD qualities were assessed, in addition to travel time. Fare was one of the varying elements in the journey alternatives, enabling estimation of willingness to pay (WTP) for UD quality improvements. The WTP yields benefit estimates of improvements that can be assessed against the costs of upgrading, maintaining, and running these UD-related elements in PT. More than 2000 respondents participated in our web-based survey. Almost one in five reported special needs when travelling by PT. Comparing those reporting special needs against those not reporting needs/difficulties, we find that their WTP is similar for most UD qualities, but WTP differs on some particular UD elements. Those reporting needs/difficulties show higher WTP for improved cleaning and air quality on board, and for benches and highly visible real-time departure info at stops/stations. All PT users have high WTP for improved access, without detours, to stops/stations, that have shelter and de-iced road surface. Overall, our findings provide a case for increased focus on UD in economic assessments of PT.

Public budgets are limited and priorities must be made between competing projects. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is the standard tool to assess projects and prioritise between them, as is done, e.g., in national transport plans. Universal design (UD) is typically a legal requirement in new investments and their benefits and contribution in CBA have usually not received much attention. Therefore, there is a risk that benefits are underestimated in projects that include UD elements and that these projects are subsequently ranked lower than what they ought to according to CBA performance. In this paper, we develop a user-friendly methodology for CBA of UD projects in public transport and walk/cycle infrastructure which aligns with national handbooks and guidelines for project appraisal. It contains five core elements: 1. User benefit. User benefit stems from valuation studies and are summarized and discounted over an assessment period, which in Norway is 40 years. This includes annual real price adjustments and the use of a discount rate according to guidelines. 2. Non-user effects. The degree to which UD projects affect other travellers, this (dis)benefit is accounted for. 3. Costs. Budget costs include investment and possible reinvestment at the end of economic life and annual operation and maintenance costs. These are summarized and discounted over the analysis period. Residual value after 40 years is subtracted. 4. Demand. Increases in walking and cycling have health benefits. Moreover, demand diverted from motorized transport and car to public transport, walking and cycling will affect external costs of road congestion, emissions, and accidents. 5. Shadow prices. According to Norwegian practice, the use of public funds has an inefficiency cost. Therefore, we add a shadow price on money from the public purse. With worked examples, we demonstrate that UD projects in transport are indeed available for CBA appraisal. What is more, they compete surprisingly well with alternative uses of public budgets. In fact, UD projects outperform most other transport projects in Norway when considering their cost-benefit performance. Money spent on UD gives more welfare back to society than most other uses within the transport sector. This means that UD need not only be a legal requirement in new installations. UD can also compete with, and be prioritized over, other transport investments and projects.

The present article investigates corona crisis disruptions and consequences for freight transport demand, using shipment data from major logistic service providers in Norway, as well as interviews. We investigate how Covid-19 affected demand for freight transport and transport volumes in different segments, changes for parcel delivery, home-deliveries, which industries were most affected and discussed main issues for LSPs in maintaining robust transport chains. We find temporary reductions in B2B deliveries after the first Norwegian societal lockdown but large volume increases in B2C deliveries, which remained at higher levels and saw further waves of increases. Especially home deliveries and mailbox deliveries of parcels increased, particularly in relation with new infection waves. At an aggregate level, retail trade experienced by far the largest volume increases, followed by transport and storage. The latter can in part be due to increasing low-volume import (parcels) from abroad being attributed to e.g. warehouses or customs. At the other end of the scale, wholesale trade stands out with the largest tonnage decrease, followed by manufacturing.

This chapter focuses on quantifying the costs of environmental noise in monetary terms (monetisation) that can be used for taxation of travel and freight activities producing unwanted noise and other externalities. Monetisation also allows acoustic consequences to be included in economic analyses of infrastructure investments, efforts to reduce noise and efforts to improve the acoustic environment. It is when the external costs of noise are used for taxation and the economic benefits of an improved acoustic environment are included in the planning of transport and building infrastructure, urban and regional development processes that they affect policies and decision-making. Finally, we mention some of the shortcomings of current approaches and the scope for further research and caveats.

Road tolls are one of the most effective – but also most contentious – measures in the transition to sustainable urban mobility. This study examines the inter- and intra-urban variations in the public acceptance of urban road tolls and its relationship to toll exposure, public transport competitiveness, and socioeconomic status. The study draws on constituency-level 2019 municipal election support for a single-issue political party against road tolls in the Norwegian urban regions of Oslo, Bergen and Stavanger. Job-accessibility analyses were performed to calculate potential toll exposure and the time-competitiveness of public transport versus the car. Revealed intra-urban variations include higher anti-toll voting in areas with higher potential toll exposure, lower public transport competitiveness, lower education, and higher shares of singles, couples without children, and single parents compared to traditional nuclear families. Inter-regional variations reveal higher anti-toll voting in Bergen compared to Oslo and especially Stavanger, controlling for the above. The paper discusses these findings in light of the transition towards just and inclusive climate-friendly cities.

While the circular economy has garnered significant attention over the last two decades, few studies have explored the relationship between recycling and macroeconomic conditions. This paper aims to elucidate how macroeconomic factors influence and correlate with recycling indicators, focusing on European waste management. First, we analyze how macroeconomic indicators impact key circular economy indicators related to waste management, considering 27 European countries from 2000 to 2019, categorized into Western, Southern, and Eastern Europe. An ordinary least squares model serves as a baseline for comparison with a fixed effects model and a model with regional and time dummies. As a response to Ferrante and Germani's (2020) call for more research on causal studies of this kind, we also address reverse causality both by testing for panel data Granger causality and by applying the dynamic panel data approach developed by Arellano and Bond (1991). Second, we investigate variations in circular economic performance across European regions and countries, both before and after controlling for the macroeconomic context. The empirical analysis reveals a substantial correlation between circular economy indicators and key macroeconomic conditions, but we do not find evidence supporting causal impacts from macroeconomic circumstances in the short run. Regional examinations unveil disparities in circular economic performance, with Western Europe generally surpassing Southern and Eastern Europe. However, these patterns align more closely when considering the macroeconomic context. The methodologies employed in the study may prove valuable for future research on the circular economy and its relation to macroeconomic influences.

Large regeneration and transformation projects generally include a longer timespan as an aspect that makes way for more uncertainty and unexpected changes. We introduce transformative resilience as a place-based approach that can help planners and practitioners adapt to changes and challenges in urban regeneration and can be used proactively to bring certain pliability into planning, implementing and decision-making processes. This allows for intermittent actions to regularly evaluate the outcomes and include the involvement of relevant parties. Based on findings from a comparative study carried out in Norway on two former industrial sites situated in historic cities undergoing transformation, we discuss how planners can prepare for unexpected and unforeseen challenges.

Experiencing nature represents a dominant driver for many tourists, and the nature-based tourism market has become increasingly diversified. Activity specialization is a concept that can facilitate understanding of diversified tourist preferences by differentiating tourist behaviour, skills and knowledge and commitment related to one activity on a continuum from casual to specialized. Using a hybrid choice model, this study examines how activity specialization as a continuum relates to tourists stated choices of tour package preferences. Respondents were recruited at prominent tourist destinations for birdwatching, mountain biking, and iconic site hiking in Norway. The results show relationships between specialization and package choice, as well as differences across activities. In the birder and mountain biking cases, the likelihood of opting for a package with skill-level customized guiding increases with specialization. More specialized hikers are more likely to prefer packages without guiding and with modest accommodation standard. Packages offering higher biking qualities are more likely to be preferred by more specialized bikers. Specialization can add explanatory power to nature-based tourism product choices and support development of products that meet the needs of tourists.

Mobility research and theory suggests that new parents often develop a car-dependent way of living that runs counter to prevailing climate policies. In this context, the current study investigates the influence of public transport accessibility on car ownership among first-time parents in the Oslo region. Specific attention is paid to how the effect of accessibility varies with different income levels. Linear probability and fixed-effects models are applied to parents and a control group of non-parents to explore these relationships. The results show that public transport accessibility reduces the likelihood of car ownership in the years after family formation, although with larger impacts for some income groups than for others. Households with a high income combine car ownership with high access, whereas others seem to sacrifice one for the other. These findings have several policy implications. First, urban regions with a combination of gentrification in the central city and increasing poverty in suburban areas face a potential conflict between environmental and social sustainability. Finding ways to increase central-city opportunities for low- and medium-income families is a difficult but important step towards greater overall sustainability. Second, the reduction of car ownership among high-income households appears to require supplementary measures. The article ends with a discussion of the findings in the context of broader urban policy development, particularly in relation to the prioritisation of collective consumption.

Incentivizing energy-efficient retrofits in residential sectors often involves subsidies, which are aimed at lowering a building’s environmental impact. However, the effectiveness of these subsidies has been debated, particularly concerning an unintended consequence known as free-riding. Free-riders are investors who would have made energy-efficient retrofits even without the subsidy. Typically, a high prevalence of free-riding is perceived negatively from an economic perspective in terms of the impact and efficiency of a policy. However, apart from economic efficiency, it is unclear what the relation between free-riding and the progression of the buildings’ energy standards is. We employed an agent-based model to mimic a neighborhood and discovered an intriguing pattern: Areas with more free-riders actually showed advanced energy standards in their building infrastructure now and 7 years into the future. These insights enhance our comprehension of free-riding and can help policymakers take this relation into account when designing subsidy schemes.