Landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs) are the most devastating disaster to affect the U.S., while the demonstration of skillful subseasonal (between 10 days and one season) prediction of LTCs is less promising. Understanding the mechanisms governing the subseasonal variation of TC activity is fundamental to improving its forecast, which is of critical interest to decision-makers and the insurance industry. This work reveals three localized atmospheric circulation modes with significant 10–30 days subseasonal variations: Piedmont Oscillation (PO), Great America Dipole (GAD), and the Subtropical High ridge (SHR) modes. These modes strongly modulate precipitation, TC genesis, intensity, track, and landfall near the U.S. coast. Compared to their strong negative phases, the U.S. East Coast has 19 times more LTCs during the strong positive phases of PO, and the Gulf Coast experiences 4–12 times more frequent LTCs during the positive phases of GAD and SHR. Results from the GFDL SPEAR model show a skillful prediction of 13, 9, and 22 days for these three modes, respectively. Our findings are expected to benefit the prediction of LTCs on weather timescale and also suggest opportunities exist for subseasonal predictions of LTCs and their associated heavy rainfalls.
The purpose of this article is to provide further exploratory validation of a nascent self-report rating scale designed to measure the concept of other-esteem: The Other-Esteem Rating Scale (OthERS). Other-esteem as conceptualized in this article was coined by Philip Hwang and encompasses the following concepts: non-offensiveness; friendliness, kindness, respectfulness, acceptance, valuing, praising, and the promotion of others. An earlier study provided preliminary norms, reliability, and validity for the OthERS with an undergraduate sample. To continue this exploratory line of inquiry with younger adolescents, the OthERS was administered online to a sample of 486 individuals ages 14–18. An exploratory factor analysis resulted in a four-factor model that accounted for 54.1% of the variance with adequate internal consistency estimates. The results indicated that other-esteem evidenced small inverse relationships with aggression and bullying. Other-esteem and self-esteem were not found to be related. Implications for research and practice are discussed.
We describe a new semi-analytical program, KKhhFoam, which provides a simplified framework for testing the amplitude-level exponentiation scheme (CEEX) of the full KKMChh program in the semi-soft limit. The structure of the KKhhFoam integrand is also helpful for elucidating the structure of CEEX. We also discuss the representation of ISR in KKMChh and compare the ISR added by KKMChh to the effect of switching to a QED-corrected PDF, at the individual quark level, and suggest a new approach to running KKMChh with QED-corrected PDFs.
With the advancement of strategies for the precision physics programs for the HL-LHC, FCC-ee, FCC-hh, ILC, CLIC, CEPC, and CPPC, the need for proper control of the attendant theoretical precision tags is manifest. We discuss the role that amplitude-based resummation may play in this regard with examples from the LHC, the proposed new colliders and quantum gravity.
Crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED) is a non-punitive method for reducing crime through the design of the built environment. The relevance of CPTED strategies, however, is less clear in the context of computing environments. Building upon prior research indicating that computing environments may change computer users’ behaviors, this study tests the effectiveness of CPTED-based approaches in mitigating system-trespassing events. Findings from this randomized controlled field trial demonstrate that specific CPTED strategies can mitigate hacking events by reducing the number of concurrent activities on the target computer, attenuating the number of commands typed in the attacked computer, and decreasing the likelihood of hackers returning to a previously hacked environment. Our findings suggest some novel and readily implemented strategies for reducing cybercrime.
In this article, we leverage ideas from the theory of coevolutionary computation to analyze interactions of students with problems. We introduce the idea of informatively easy or hard concepts. Our approach is different from more traditional analyses of problem difficulty such as item analysis in the sense that we consider Pareto dominance relationships within the multidimensional structure of student–problem performance data rather than average performance measures. This method allows us to uncover not just the problems on which students are struggling but also the variety of difficulties different students face. Our approach is to apply methods from the Dimension Extraction Coevolutionary Algorithm to analyze problem-solving logs of students generated when they use an online software tutoring suite for introductory computer programming called problets . The results of our analysis not only have implications for how to scale up and improve adaptive tutoring software but also have the promise of contributing to the identification of common misconceptions held by students and thus, eventually, to the construction of a concept inventory for introductory programming.
Aligned with the approach that established the factor structure of the Movement Imagery Questionnaire-3 (MIQ-3), this study extended the two-factor structure of the Movement Imagery Questionnaire – Revised Second version (MIQ-RS). The extension involves assessment of both internal and external visual imagery abilities along with kinesthetic imagery ability. Participants (N = 396) completed the new Movement Imagery Questionnaire – 3 Second Version (MIQ-3S) along with the Vividness of Movement Imagery Questionnaire-2 (VMIQ-2) which measure the same three imagery abilities. Alpha coefficients and between scale Spearman correlations for internal, external, and kinesthetic abilities indicated items were internally consistent (α > 0.87) and established convergent validity (r > 0.69), respectively. MIQ-3S scale means ranged from 5.56 (SD = 1.10) to 5.98 (SD = 0.84), with no differences by sex. The three scales were not multicolinear as intra-scale correlations ranged from 0.47 to 0.61, supporting the three abilities were related, but separate constructs. A multi-trait multimethod confirmatory factor analysis (MTMM CFA), with sex invariance, was conducted to confirm the 3-factor structure of the MIQ-3S. Results from 396 healthy male (n = 200) and female (n = 196) adult college-aged students (M = 21.91, SD = 2.37) indicated a correlated-traits correlated-uniqueness model provided the best fit to the data (CFI = 0.99; SRMR = 0.05; RMSEA = 0.03), while displaying sex invariance. These findings provide baseline data on college-aged, healthy adult participants providing reference data to those investigating imagery abilities among injured populations and practitioners interested in tracking individuals in rehabilitation.
Abstract Background Trauma-focused psychotherapies for combat-related posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in military veterans are efficacious, but there are many barriers to receiving treatment. The objective of this study was to determine if cognitive processing therapy (CPT) for PTSD among active duty military personnel and veterans would result in increased acceptability, fewer dropouts, and better outcomes when delivered In-Home or by Telehealth as compared to In-Office treatment. Methods The trial used an equipoise-stratified randomization design in which participants (N = 120) could decline none or any 1 arm of the study and were then randomized equally to 1 of the remaining arms. Therapists delivered CPT in 12 sessions lasting 60-min each. Self-reported PTSD symptoms on the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5) served as the primary outcome. Results Over half of the participants (57%) declined 1 treatment arm. Telehealth was the most acceptable and least often refused delivery format (17%), followed by In-Office (29%), and In-Home (54%); these differences were significant (p = 0.0008). Significant reductions in PTSD symptoms occurred with all treatment formats (p
This paper uses multivariate Hawkes processes to model the transactions behavior of the US stock market as measured by the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average individual stocks before, during and after the 36-min May 6, 2010, Flash Crash. The basis for our analysis is the excitation matrix, which describes a complex network of interactions among the stocks. Using high-frequency transactions data, we find strong evidence of self- and asymmetrically cross-induced contagion and the presence of fragmented trading venues. Our findings have implications for stock trading and corresponding risk management strategies as well as stock market microstructure design.
Social trust has a complex interrelationship with attitudes toward gender equality. Social trust has its origins in exchange relationships in preindustrial societies, lowering uncertainty in transactions and easing interpersonal exchanges. The degree to which this trust was extended to opportunities for women in commercial and societal roles, however, differed across cultures. Prior literature finds attitudes toward individualism and collectivism have significant implications for gender equality and patriarchal attitudes. We combine these ideas arguing that the degree to which social trust fosters gender equality depends upon the degrees of individualism and collectivism. Employing World Values Survey data across countries over time, we find that with low levels of individualism, and high degrees of collectivism, higher levels of trust are not effective in reducing the prevalence of gendered patriarchal attitudes—in fact it entrenches them further, worsening gender equality. However, as individualism rises, and collectivism falls, higher levels of trust become effective in reducing the prevalence of patriarchal beliefs. Thus, collectivistic beliefs stand as a barrier to future improvements in women’s equality and economic rights in many societies; preventing social trust from being extended beyond traditional gendered roles.
Interventions that match demands to ability can enhance both academic performance and behavioral performance. However, it is unknown whether the instructional match or subsequent increases in engagement with the instructional material differentially impacts learning. The current study evaluated the effect of task difficulty on on-task behavior and responding rate across two studies. In Study 1, participants were assigned easy and difficult math probes following results of curriculum-based assessment. Data were collected on digits correct per min (DCPM) and percentage of on-task behavior during a 5-min observation period. Results from Study 1 indicated that participants responded, on average, 1.16 DCPM more per session in the easy probe condition, responded more over time at faster rate than in the difficult probe condition, and were engaged significantly more in the easy probe condition. In Study 2, the same data were collected for participants completing easy probes during a truncated observation period and compared across results from in Study 1. Rate of responding in Study 2 was substantially less than in Study 1. The interaction between task difficulty and DCPM was not significant which suggests that engagement was a substantial contributor to the growth differences in Study 1.
We extend the concept of non-decreasing Dyck paths to t-Dyck paths. We denote the set of non-decreasing t-Dyck paths by Dt. Several classic questions studied in other families of lattice paths are studied here for Dt. We use generating functions, recursive relations and Riordan arrays to count, for example, the following aspects: the number of non-decreasing paths in Dt with a given fixed length, the total number of prefixes of all paths in Dt of a given length, and the total number of paths in Dt with a fixed number of peaks. We give a generating function to count the number of paths in Dt that can be written as a concatenation of a given fixed number of primitive paths and we give a relation between paths in Dt and direct column-convex polyominoes.
Civil protection orders are individualized orders that survivors of intimate partner abuse and violence can pursue in addition to or independently of criminal charges. The efficacy of protection orders is defined in various ways in existing literature. One way to understand the effectiveness of these orders is to determine the extent to which they are violated, the willingness of survivors to report violations, and the legal system’s (i.e., police, criminal court, and civil court) responses to survivors’ reports. Research exists on the extent to which protection orders are violated, the extent to which violations are reported, and factors affecting enforcement of the orders. However, research has yet to examine the perceptions and behaviors of survivors who do not report order violations. Drawing on in-depth qualitative interviews with women who sought civil protection orders against abusive male partners, this research uses a legal consciousness framework to examine survivors’ perceptions of order violations, their decision-making processes regarding whether to report violations, and barriers to reporting the violations. The interviews reveal that not all survivors perceive contact as an order violation and, for those who do, not all survivors report the violations. Specifically, obstacles to reporting were related to survivors’ perceptions of the violations and accessibility to and usefulness of the legal system. Policy implications for both the civil and criminal justice systems to create more victim-centered and trauma-informed responses to survivors who experience protection order violations are discussed.
This article traces Gioconda Belli’s trajectory as a writer, feminist, and political activist. Belli, who is known as one of the organic intellectuals of the Nicaraguan Sandinista Revolution, has consistently used her platform as one of the most renowned contemporary Latin American writers to provide a voice that transcends national borders to the Nicaraguan cause since the early 1970s. Through the analysis of some of her most notable works, some of her contributions in the national and international press, as well as social media publications, we examine the way her many roles have informed each other over the years and accomplished a two-fold goal: on the one hand, she has documented and theorized on the recent history of Nicaragua, in addition to keeping those in power in check; on the other hand, she has become one of the foremothers of Nicaraguan feminism. As this article shows, not only has she crafted—both in writing and action— a roadmap for younger generations of women, but she has also documented and influenced the evolution of feminism in Nicaragua.
Plain Language Summary Atmospheric rivers (ARs), narrow corridors of intense moisture transport and heavy precipitation, are an important water resource but also a cause of flooding‐related disasters for western North America. Consequently, predictions of AR frequency several seasons in advance potentially would be of great value, but such operational forecasts are currently lacking due to the challenges in simulating such intense, small‐scale weather phenomena and their predictability sources on seasonal timescales. In this study, we examine the forecast skill of AR frequency on seasonal‐to‐multiseasonal timescales (≥3 months) in a new generation seasonal‐to‐decadal prediction system developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. We find that AR frequency can be skillfully forecast at least 9 months in advance over certain regions of the west coast of North America, such as California and Alaska, while the forecasts are only reliable for the first season in other regions. This regional variability can be further explained by the large‐scale climate variability pattern that is responsible for much of the skill, which is strongly modulated by slowly varying sea surface temperature (SST) variations. A prototype probabilistic seasonal AR forecast product is proposed.
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