• Stuttgart, Germany
Recent publications
Aim: The current study estimates the societal impact of early intensified treatment compared with initial monotherapy with subsequent treatment intensification in newly diagnosed adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Mexico. Methods: An individual patient-level simulation and a static cohort model were employed to simulate the treatment pathway and the probability of experiencing complications of diabetes. The avoided number of events was translated into avoided productivity losses, which were monetized using wages. Results: Patients on early intensified treatment experienced approximately 13,000 fewer complication events over 10 years. This was translated into a societal impact of $54 million (USD). Conclusion: Early treatment intensification is likely to be of particular benefit to health outcomes and productivity losses.
The financial sector is a key industry to invest in sustainable products and services, and to help other companies to make sustainable investments. So far, research sheds little light on environmental attitudes and the behavioral patterns of employees in this sector. We investigated what motivation and motivators promote or inhibit "green" behavior among professionals in the financial service industry. A smartphone friendly online survey concerning the intention to improve and show 'green behavior' was sent to 1200 professionals working in 17 locations in 13 European countries , 470 of which responded to the survey (39%). From these participants, 20% are convinced of the need to act in a "green" manner, and only 5% are hardly accessible. Monetary benefits combined with social motives contribute to sustainable living, whereas financial benefits alone actually hinder it. The result of this study points to an intention-behavior gap; intention is built from various influences including moderating factors like sex, age and family status influencing individual decisions. It is recommended that we should evaluate the green attitude and behavioral patterns of employees based on a practical typology of "green behavior", which is suggested in this study, helping companies to know what actions can be taken to close the intention-behavior gap.
Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): This study was sponsored by Daiichi Sankyo, Inc. Medical writing and editorial support were provided by Atreju Lackey, PhD of AlphaBioCom, LLC, and funded by Daiichi Sankyo, Inc. Background/Introduction Once-daily edoxaban significantly reduced the risk of intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) compared with well-managed warfarin in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial. The effectiveness and safety of edoxaban in patients with prior ICH is unknown. Purpose To compare the effectiveness and safety of edoxaban in AF patients with or without a history of ICH. Methods The Global ETNA-AF programme is composed of and, thus, integrates data from multiple prospective, observational, and noninterventional regional studies collecting data of AF patients treated with edoxaban for stroke prevention. This snapshot analysis presents global and regional baseline characteristics with medical history and 2-year annualised rates of all-cause mortality, stroke (haemorrhagic, ischaemic, any), and bleeding (major bleeding [MB] including ICH, clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding [CRNMB], any bleeding), in patients with or without ICH history. Results Overall, 27,333 patients from Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan were analysed, including 367 with prior ICH and 26,966 without prior ICH. There were proportionally fewer patients with a history of ICH in the European population. Patients with a history of ICH were older (P=0.006), had a lower body mass index (P<0.0001), had a lower creatinine clearance (P=0.0001), and had more comorbidities, with a higher percentage of patients with a history of stroke, transient ischaemic attack (TIA), or MB (Table 1); the higher level of comorbidities noted in patients with a history of ICH was also reflected by higher baseline CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores (Table 1). Patients with a history of ICH were more likely receiving 30 mg edoxaban at baseline, whereas patients without ICH history were more often on 60 mg edoxaban (each P<0.0001). In patients with vs without ICH history, all-cause mortality (5.10% vs 3.14%; P=0.01), ischaemic stroke (1.79% vs 0.73%; P=0.006), and any stroke rates (3.25% vs 0.95%; P<0.0001) were higher (Table 2). Patients with vs without ICH history had higher annualised rates of MB (2.50% vs 1.00%; P=0.001), ICH (1.42% vs 0.27%; P<0.0001), haemorrhagic stroke (1.42% vs 0.20%; P<0.0001), CRNMB (2.49% vs 1.40%; P=0.04), and any bleeding (7.57% vs 4.27%; P=0.001), but these rates were low compared to other high-risk populations. ICH was not selected as a predictor of cardiovascular outcomes on multivariate prediction modelling. ICH had non-significant effects in predicting all-cause death (HR 1.22), ischemic stroke (HR 1.14), and major bleeding (HF 1.37) and repeat ICH (HR 1.94). Conclusions Patients with a history of ICH are a small, elderly, multimorbid subgroup of patients with AF. Treatment with the non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant edoxaban resulted in relatively low rates of major events.
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit societies all around the globe, with tremendous consequences. Beyond its impact on individual and public health, the ensuing crisis has also accentuated existing social and economic problems and, in many cases, exacerbated them. In this context, a central question arises: How can societies be better prepared for the future? This research note presents an example of strategic foresight as an instrument for better understanding systemic challenges, anticipating the emergent risks and opportunities and informing future-proof decision-making. More specifically, it reflects central insights of a regional foresight project that aimed at exploring development pathways of the Italian province South Tyrol for the next 10 years and beyond (2030+). Delineating four plausible, equivalent and consistent scenarios and their entailed challenges, risks and opportunities for South Tyrol, the project offers a future-oriented policy instrument for political, economic and civil actors and key stakeholders. Instead of a classic empirical outlet, the article is prepared as a research note that, beyond sketching the scenarios, shares the project experiences, lessons learned, challenges and success factors for other future regional foresight endeavors.
Maritime container shipping (MCS) firms represent the backbone of worldwide supply chains. Due to the emergence of global trends and disruptions, MCS firms increasingly face an uncertain environment. Consequently, MCS firms must develop dynamic capabilities to enable the reconfiguration of organizational resources for building resilience in a constantly changing business ecosystem. To create adequate dynamic capabilities, MCS firms need to anticipate the future of their macro environment through advanced foresight techniques. Using a Delphi-based scenario analysis, this study systematically examines scenarios for MCS firms’ macro environment. Twelve projections for the MCS industry were systematically created and were then assessed by 51 maritime experts. The resulting three distinct scenarios deliver valuable insights for MCS firms’ executives, whereas the blockchains and drones technology will have already increased efficiency in the short-term scenario “picking the low-hanging fruit,” other technological disruptions will only affect the industry in the medium-term scenario “experiencing an era of dichotomy.” In the long-term scenario “overcoming the obstacles of the generational shift,” MCS firms will experience a transfer toward alternative fuel powered and autonomously driven vessels. Offering detailed scenarios for the future MCS macro environment, this study represents a guide for decision-makers on how to create dynamic capabilities in MCS firms to build resilience. Moreover, the results revealed differences in the experts’ assessments due to their characteristics. Therefore, the study contributes to the academic focus on in-depth diversity analysis in the Delphi methodology and emphasizes the relevance of incorporating multiple stakeholders and panelists in future planning.
This commentary refers to the retrospective review by Rowland and Spaniol in Futures and Foresight Science (2021), which provides interesting insights into Kees van der Heijden's character and work 25 years after his famous book Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation was first published. The commentator draws on his own personal experience of Kees' work and book, including a seminar with him at the University of Oxford in 2011, as well as applying the book's fundamentals in his own research and advisory work over the past ten years.
Bringing innovative products to markets is essential for companies, especially in competitive environments. One of the driving forces for successful new product development (NPD) is the inclusion of the functions that form part of the process such as purchasing and supply management (PSM). While extensive research has been conducted on the role of procurement in promoting innovation, insufficient research on the future of the PSM function in NPD has been conducted. This study addresses this gap, considering increasing digitalization and its effect on the future PSM function managing purchasing and innovation. To explore the future of PSM in NPD, a Delphi survey with 91 experts from industry, academia, and politics or associations was performed. The results reveal that digitalization will influence the PSM function in NPD across different time horizons and forms depending on the subject area. While in many areas, an interplay between digital technologies and human PSM professionals is expected, in certain domains the PSM function is likely to lose added value compared to digital technologies. Furthermore, digitalization is expected to be a potential enabler of a stronger key innovation role for PSM in NPD but to also introduce new requirements such as data science capabilities.
Organizations increasingly adopt technologies and logistics measures to improve their social sustainability, reduce transportation‐related carbon emissions, or even design their supply chains carbon negative. However, the speed at which this adoption is progressing is not fast enough to address the sustainability challenges of the world today. To gain deeper knowledge about the adoption process of sustainability‐related measures in road freight transportation, this paper examines barriers currently hindering a broader market penetration and derives expected timeframes when mass adoption of 14 relevant technologies will occur. Furthermore, the technologies' impacts on the economic, environmental, and social dimensions of sustainability are discussed providing recommendations, on which technologies the respective stakeholders might focus on in the future. Since we want to examines a long‐term technology perspective of the next 25 years, we rely on systematic foresight methodology. More specifically, we collect empirical data by use of a real‐time Delphi survey, which particularly suits complex and uncertain environments. Our global panel includes 116 experts from 25 different countries. The assessments are grouped into short‐term, midterm, midterm to long‐term, and long‐term developments. The categories shed light on potential drivers and barriers to the implementation of the surveyed technologies. The findings emphasize the need to systematically select suitable measures and promote those that are expected to deliver short‐term sustainability improvements to address current deficits in a timely manner. The article further outlines the crucial role of politics in developing necessary regulative frameworks to drive sustainability in road freight transportation.
Objectives Migraine is a highly prevalent neurological disorder. The most characteristic symptom of migraine is moderate to severe recurrent headache along with other neurological symptoms. In this study, we modeled the potential reduction in migraine days and corresponding avoided productivity losses if erenumab was prescribed to the patient population indicated for prophylactic migraine treatment (≥ 4 monthly migraine days [MMDs]) in Germany from 2020 to the end of 2027. Methods We simulated the incremental benefits of erenumab against the standard of care. Response rates, transition probabilities, discontinuation rates, and productivity estimates were derived from the erenumab clinical trial program. Patients had a probability of residing in 1 of 7 states, given the MMDs in addition to the probability of death. Based on accrued MMDs in every cycle, days of absenteeism and presenteeism for paid and unpaid work were derived. Paid work was monetized according to gross value added using the human capital approach, whereas unpaid work was valuated according to the proxy good method. In addition, downstream macroeconomic effects were captured using value-added multipliers. Direct medical costs were concomitantly calculated. Results Our results show that prescribing erenumab for the indicated population in Germany could lead to a reduction of 166 million migraine days annually and reduce productivity losses in the range of €27 billion. This includes €13.1 billion from direct productivity and €13.5 billion from economic value chain effects. Conclusions This study highlights the macroeconomic effects of a systematic introduction of novel inhibitors of the calcitonin gene-related peptide pathway for migraine in Germany.
Delphi is a scientific method to organize and structure an expert discussion aiming to generate insights on controversial topics with limited information. The technique has seen a rise in publication frequency in various disciplines, especially over the past decades. In April 2021, the term Delphi method yielded 28,200 search hits in Google Scholar for the past five years alone. Given the increasing level of uncertainty caused by rapid technological and social change around the globe, collective expert opinions and assessments are likely to gain even more importance. Therefore, the paper at hand presents technical recommendations derived from a Delphi study that was conducted amid the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. ● The paper comprehensively demonstrates how to prepare, conduct, and analyze a Delphi study. In this regard, it combines several methodological advancements of the recent past (e.g., dissent analyses, scenario analyses) with state-of-the-art impulses from other disciplines like strategic management (e.g., fuzzy clustering), psychology (e.g., sentiment analyses), or clinical trials (e.g., consensus measurement). ● By offering insights on the variety of possibilities to exploit Delphi-based data, we aim to support researchers across all disciplines in conducting Delphi studies and potentially expand and improve the method's field of application.
COVID-19 has had a tremendous impact on the world's society and economy. This also applies to European football; the continent's largest professional sports ecosystem has millions of employees in football-related jobs and even more people emotionally attached to the sport. To account for stakeholders' unprecedented level of uncertainty regarding regulatory, economic, social, and technological implications for their business, we systematically examine how COVID-19 will impact the future of the European football ecosystem in the short, medium and long term. We present a Delphi-based scenario analysis with 110 subject matter experts who assessed 15 future projections both on a quantitative and qualitative basis. We find that, for example, a salary cap for players would have the highest impact on the ecosystem, but it is unlikely to be implemented, while an increased awareness for social responsibility would be the most desirable effect of the crisis. To refine the results, we account for surface-level and deep-level characteristics of participants and find significant effects in both cases. We identify three different clusters of projections and discuss the potential threats and opportunities of COVID-19 for the European football ecosystem to contribute to the scientific discussion and to provide guidance for policy- and decision-makers.
The important role of scientific theories in social science and across all disciplines has been reflected for decades (see, e.g., Parsons, 1938). With scientific theories, researchers can link the abstract world (the world of concepts/ideas) and the concrete world (the empirical/observable world) (Chibucos et al., 2005). It is, therefore, more than appropriate to question along with Fergnani and Chermack (2021, p. 1) and colleagues, “why the field of futures and foresight has not been successful at becoming part of the social scientific establishment”? Our commentary supports the underlying observations by Fergnani and Chermack (2021) by adopting a brief bibliometric lens on 50 years of cumulative scholarship (1973–January 2021) in 22 selected journals. These 22 journals include a total of 47,049 articles that were scanned. Based on our search criteria, we found 151 article matches (only 0.32 percent), of which a subset of 28 articles applied scientific theories from different disciplines.
he article by Lustick and Tetlock (2021) impressively embeds the need for reliable foresight in concrete historical events and, based on this, makes a strong appeal for significantly improved foresight and decision‐making groundwork, through the use of theory‐guided computer simulations such as the mentioned Virtual Strategic Analysis and Forecasting Tool (VSAFT). It goes without saying that theory‐guided computer simulations improve the status quo of foresight, which is why they should complement the method portfolio of any strategist, risk manager, analyst, or policy maker. However, it is doubtful whether future pandemics, terrorist attacks, international conflicts, or even social upheavals can be regularly anticipated and, above all, whether appropriate preventive measures can be implemented consistently or even only to a predominant extent.
Flexible packaging materials consisting of several layers of very dissimilar materials are currently considered for replacement by multilayer polyolefin films as well as functional flexible paper materials to improve recyclability. Such materials however lead to new challenges in processing on existing packaging machinery. This paper focuses on the sealing process of such materials, especially looking at pillow pouches and the challenges occurring at the junction between cross and fin seals where the total thickness jumps from two to four layers. It is shown that the application of conventional machinery and sealing tools does not lead to a gastight seal within the operational sealing window of such materials. The origin of the permanent failure is the lack of material fraction capable to flow as a viscous melt into the gap at the fin seal. The limited compressibility of the nonmelting materials and their bending stiffness tend to increase the gap. In case of paper, a flexible sealing jaw, equipped with an elastic insert, enables a focused application of pressure at the layer jump of a poorly compressible material. This results in clearly improved gas tightness of all selected materials in the range of the used test methods (leak size 10 μm). The leakage rate of papers was reduced from 3–4 mbar·l/s with rigid tools to 1 mbar·l/s with flexible tools. The leakage of 2 mbar·l/s with OPP/CPP material could be prevented and no leaks were detected. With OPP/PE, leak‐proof results were obtain within reduced temperature at 140°, which is near the level of acceptable seal quality with low shrinkage effect.
The challenges of today’s rapidly changing environment are tremendous. Almost every organization has new tasks; some must even completely modify their objectives, strategy, business focus, or business model. In addition to the necessity of managing processes as effectively and efficiently as possible, the topic of leadership has gained increasing importance. Thus, training and development programs aimed at preparing future generations of leaders have long been well frequented. However, current leadership education fails to meet the demands of either the present or the future, as our analysis shows. For this article, we have thoroughly researched current leadership education programs and comprehensively studied the pertinent literature. Based on this, we recommend goals, content, and methods for a state-of-the-art leadership education program. Our main findings demonstrate that leadership education should focus on (1) the development of competencies and their demonstrated performance, (2) personal development, and (3) the implementation of real-world projects as a form of inquiry-based learning. Furthermore, we precisely describe an evidence-based approach for an innovative study program: the newly developed ‘Diploma of Performance and Leadership’ (DPL). We end by giving an outlook on the program’s implementation, which will be accompanied by empirical evaluation.
Blockchain technology offers numerous fields of application, especially for supply chain management (SCM), as it could supersede the middleman activities in many transaction-based processes along the supply chain. Blockchain technology has a disruptive impact on supply chain design and operations, making the exploration of future application scenarios of great importance. However, knowledge in this field remains scarce, despite the subject's strategical value. This empirical study addresses this gap by conducting an interdisciplinary Delphi survey. Long-term judgments from an international panel of 108 designated experts from academia, industry, and politics/associations with different context-related backgrounds (blockchain, SCM, hybrid functions) were systematically analyzed. The results reveal prospective scenarios how blockchains will be applied in SCM by 2035 and which SCM-specific obstacles need to be solved in advance. One key finding reveals that even though blockchain technology is said to enable transactions between untrusted parties, trust-related advantages of blockchain technology are not directly transferable to SCM without additional conditions. Counterintuitively, active trust management between supply chain partners will still be needed. Nonetheless, this research reveals that blockchain technology will be strongly applied in SCM by 2035 and thus provides beneficial orientation and stimulating perspectives for decision-makers in the field.
Aim: This study estimates the societal benefits of using biologics like secukinumab (SEC) instead of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs for treating patients with ankylosing spondylitis in Germany. Materials & methods: A Markov and a population model were used to predict the functional impairment of German ankylosing spondylitis patients using SEC or nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. This was translated into avoided productivity losses, which were valued according to gross value added. Results: The productivity impairment of SEC users was predicted to decrease by 20 percentage points, corresponding to 12.8 and 32.7 million hours in paid and unpaid work and a monetary value of €1.6 billion from 2016 to 2030. Accounting for economic spillover effects increases the societal value to € 3.3 billion. Conclusion: The improvements in functional impairment due to biologics could lead to sizable productivity effects.
Heat sealing behavior of mono‐polyolefins and paper‐based materials is drastically different from conventional multilayer plastic laminates. This paper presents the effect of sealing conditions on Hot‐Tack and Cold‐Tack for an oriented polypropylene (OPP)‐based polyolefin laminate with either polyethylene (PE) or cast polypropylene (CPP) sealing layer and two different barrier paper materials carrying a thin acrylic copolymer sealing layer. The investigations include pressure, temperature, time, jaw pattern, and climate conditions (moisture). It is shown that the mono‐polyolefins reach comparable Hot‐Tack and Cold‐Tack ranges compared with the reference polyethylene terephthalate (PET)‐aluminum (Al)‐PE laminate. The CPP laminate exhibits a narrow sealing window near the range in which shrinkage is observed. While for the polyolefins temperature plays the main role, the sealing of paper materials turned out to be dependent on pressure, time, and moisture content in paper. Due to a rupture through the polymer thin coating, the Cold‐Tack is dominated by a delamination of paper and coating. Consequently, the Cold‐Tack is drastically lower than with PET‐Al‐PE laminate. Monopolypropylene films exhibit extremely narrow sealing window, which shall be taken into the design consideration of bag form‐fill‐seal (FFS) machines. Polymer coated paper can be potentially used at high‐speed FFS; however, special attention shall be paid to moisture content control and filling.
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29 members
Walter Koch
  • IMCHI - Informations Management and Cultural Heritage Informatics
Claudia Reichelt
  • SIZ AMFP, Jena
Wiebke Heins
  • Innovation Center for Optimization and Control
Stuttgart, Germany