Peace Research Institute Oslo
Recent publications
Who dies in police custody? Where? To answer these questions, we use spatially disaggregated georeferenced data that measure 9098 deaths occurring by multiple causes during interactions with police throughout the U.S. from 2016 to 2020. We use a Sociospatial Ecology framework and Bayesian statistics over U.S. counties that establishes the relationship between social contexts – regional poverty, White/non-White population, violent crime rates, and political identity – and the risk of dying during police interactions. In addition, we evaluate the effects of police force Whiteness on deaths during police interactions. Controlling for alternative explanations, we show heterogeneous distributions of fatality risk, with large clusters in the Southwest and isolated high-probability pockets in other states. Risk maps allowing for visualization of these patterns are provided. We arrive at five main results. 1) There is a general trend of higher death during police interaction in areas of high poverty, fewer White people, higher violent crime rates, and higher populations with conservative values. 2) A great risk of deadly encounters for Black people exists throughout most of the U.S., while regional patterns of high risk exist for all other people of color. 3) White deaths during police interactions are most sensitive to ecological factors. 4) The risk of Blacks getting killed by police increases in White areas regardless of violent crime rates. 5) Higher proportions of White police within U.S. counties leads to higher interactive death risk for all races/ethnicities except Asian/Pacific Islander. Ultimately, our findings identify widespread racial/ethnic biases in situations of power and control.
A fundamental aspect in the study of the Colombian armed conflict is related to the violence produced in the country after the signing of the Peace Agreement with the FARC-EP guerrillas in November 2016. To this end, we attempt to analyze the transformation of the relationship between the perpetrators of violence and their territory, taking as a case study a region particularly affected by the conflict, as is Llanos Orientales (known in English as the Eastern Plains). Starting with a preliminary characterization of the most relevant armed groups – post-paramilitary groups, FARC-EP dissidents and ELN guerrillas – we attempt to analyze the changes and continuities of their armed presence and the symbolic, structural and institutional aspects that explain their territorial distribution in this part of the country. In this way, the presence of the former FARC-EP and concurring factors such as the coca trade, oil industry and poverty are aspects that should be considered in order to understand the shifting geometry of violence.
Is writing a PhD By Publication (PBP) a fundamentally different learning experience than writing a traditional thesis in the form of a monograph? Are the ‘typical challenges’ faced by a PBP writer substantively different from the challenges of writing a traditional thesis, or do they stem from an environment unfamiliar with the PBP, or simply similar challenges manifested differently? In this chapter, we seek to answer these questions by analysing 17 peer-reviewed articles written by PBP writers who describe and reflect on their own experiences of writing a PBP. Our analysis identifies three types of challenges that can be considered unique to PBP writers and inherently linked to the features of the genre: potentially losing ownership of the text and writing process, negotiating the relationship between stand-alone pieces and the thesis as a whole, and writing for different purposes and different audiences. We conclude the chapter by suggesting that these findings can help identify the type of institutional and supervisory support PBP writers need and by pointing to a need for further empirical research into how different thesis types shape doctoral trajectories.
Hybrid political regimes are characterized by fractured political opposition, suppression of independent media, and a loyal but less competent public bureaucracy. Does retrospective voting -- the bread and butter of electoral accountability -- still occur under such informational environments? Identifying policy failure, policy success, and political responsibility can be extremely difficult under these conditions. We argue that local economic development predicts local electoral results. Local development, as opposed to national fortune, is observable by individual voters independently of information from the media or politicians. Furthermore, we argue that economic development is more important to urban voters than rural ones, in particular because the latter are more detached from the national economy and political discourse. We propose to test our hypotheses using a novel dataset on geolocated polling station results following the 2011, 2016, and 2021 Zambian elections.
The European Union’s effort at controlling its external borders is an endeavour that increasingly relies on digital systems: from tools for information gathering and surveillance to systems for communicating between different agencies and across member states. This makes EU borders a key site for the politics of “digital sovereignty” – of controlling digital data, software and infrastructures. In this article, we propose a new understanding of how the concepts of digital and sovereignty interplay: sovereignty by digital means, sovereignty of the digital, and sovereignty over the digital. We do it by analysing three key manifestations within the EU’s borderwork: firstly, the expansion of EURODAC to include facial biometric data; secondly, the creation of the (future) shared Biometric Matching System (sBMS); and thirdly, the EU-funded West Africa Police Information System (WAPIS). These databases and systems exemplify three transformations of EU borderwork that invoke different dimensions of digital sovereignty: expansion of techniques for governing migration; interoperability of EU databases facilitating the internalisation of borders through domestic policing; and extra-territorialization of borderwork beyond the geographic limits of the EU.
The Democratic Union Party (PYD), the dominant Kurdish political party in Northern Syria, has led a vanguard movement for autonomy based on Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Öcalan’s ideology of democratic confederalism. A central component of this ideology is the focus on gender equality (jineologi). Ideology has served as a potent mobilising force in particular by empowering women, a group that is often at the margins of power in traditional Kurdish society, and is a cornerstone of the Rojava revolution. However, it also presents challenges for the PYD in their relations with local tribes on whom the PYD depends for sustaining the Kurdish position in the northeast. Turkey’s interventions have given the tribes a new position in the conflict and for the PYD, this means that negotiating power with the tribes will be increasingly critical to their own position. In an effort to retain a dominant position how will the PYD, no longer a vanguard movement, relate to key elements of their gender ideology? This article examines the challenges of transformative rebel governance ideology in negotiating with traditional social structures examined through the lens of gender.
This book explores the deep roots of modern democracy, focusing on geography and long-term patterns of global diffusion. Its geographic argument centers on access to the sea, afforded by natural harbors which enhance the mobility of people, goods, capital, and ideas. The extraordinary connectivity of harbor regions thereby affected economic development, the structure of the military, statebuilding, and openness to the world – and, through these pathways, the development of representative democracy. The authors' second argument focuses on the global diffusion of representative democracy. Beginning around 1500, Europeans started to populate distant places abroad. Where Europeans were numerous they established some form of representative democracy, often with restrictions limiting suffrage to those of European heritage. Where they were in the minority, Europeans were more reticent about popular rule and often actively resisted democratization. Where Europeans were entirely absent, the concept of representative democracy was unfamiliar and its practice undeveloped.
Chapter 13 explores alternative theories of how democracy spread from Europe to other regions of the world. Specifically, we look at theories related to colonialism, religion, and language. The chapter provides empirical tests of each of these theories and attempts to compare the relative importance of each. The tests suggest that each of these pathways is plausible when tested in isolation but that European ancestry is the strongest predictor. We also note that the effect of Europe on democracy varies through time, with a peak during the early twentieth century and an attenuation since then.
This book explores the deep roots of modern democracy, focusing on geography and long-term patterns of global diffusion. Its geographic argument centers on access to the sea, afforded by natural harbors which enhance the mobility of people, goods, capital, and ideas. The extraordinary connectivity of harbor regions thereby affected economic development, the structure of the military, statebuilding, and openness to the world – and, through these pathways, the development of representative democracy. The authors' second argument focuses on the global diffusion of representative democracy. Beginning around 1500, Europeans started to populate distant places abroad. Where Europeans were numerous they established some form of representative democracy, often with restrictions limiting suffrage to those of European heritage. Where they were in the minority, Europeans were more reticent about popular rule and often actively resisted democratization. Where Europeans were entirely absent, the concept of representative democracy was unfamiliar and its practice undeveloped.
Chapter 5 presents case studies in support of the argument that natural harbors facilitate democratic development. The chapter divides the world geographically into seven major regions: Europe, North Eurasia, the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. Comparisons are drawn both across and within each region using a "most-similar" style of analysis. Regions where states were uncommon prior to the arrival of Europeans are set aside for analysis later in the book. Equally, regions outside Europe are only considered during the pre-colonial era, with later periods treated elsewhere.
Chapter 15 provides a summary of the arguments and evidence presented in the book. It then considers the tricky question of determinism in the causal arguments put forward. It argues that the theory presented here is deterministic insofar as environments shape the space for agency and that opportunities to exercise democratic rights are not randomly distributed throughout the world. At the same time, it is recognized that the theory is imperfect in its explanatory power and that individuals retain free will and agency that create uncertainty and cut against determinism. It is openly admitted that the theory cannot explain all variation in democratic outcomes, but it is contended that it nonetheless advances our understanding. It is also openly admitted that in looking at the deep roots of democracy, the theory produces no obvious policy recommendations. It is hoped that the framework can help inform studies of more proximal causes of democracy that are more likely to produce actionable policy recommendations.
Chapter 6 presents statistical tests of the relationship between natural harbors and democracy. Tests of the early modern era utilize a limited dataset from the Ethnographic Atlas while later tests offer broader coverage using a variety of regime type indicators. A wide range of model specifications are utilized including varying measures of harbors and harbor distance, varying measures of democracy, and varying samples. The evidence that natural harbors have a positive correlation with democratic regimes is robust to all of these different model specifications. The chapter concludes by considering the waning of this effect over time.
This book explores the deep roots of modern democracy, focusing on geography and long-term patterns of global diffusion. Its geographic argument centers on access to the sea, afforded by natural harbors which enhance the mobility of people, goods, capital, and ideas. The extraordinary connectivity of harbor regions thereby affected economic development, the structure of the military, statebuilding, and openness to the world – and, through these pathways, the development of representative democracy. The authors' second argument focuses on the global diffusion of representative democracy. Beginning around 1500, Europeans started to populate distant places abroad. Where Europeans were numerous they established some form of representative democracy, often with restrictions limiting suffrage to those of European heritage. Where they were in the minority, Europeans were more reticent about popular rule and often actively resisted democratization. Where Europeans were entirely absent, the concept of representative democracy was unfamiliar and its practice undeveloped.
This book explores the deep roots of modern democracy, focusing on geography and long-term patterns of global diffusion. Its geographic argument centers on access to the sea, afforded by natural harbors which enhance the mobility of people, goods, capital, and ideas. The extraordinary connectivity of harbor regions thereby affected economic development, the structure of the military, statebuilding, and openness to the world – and, through these pathways, the development of representative democracy. The authors' second argument focuses on the global diffusion of representative democracy. Beginning around 1500, Europeans started to populate distant places abroad. Where Europeans were numerous they established some form of representative democracy, often with restrictions limiting suffrage to those of European heritage. Where they were in the minority, Europeans were more reticent about popular rule and often actively resisted democratization. Where Europeans were entirely absent, the concept of representative democracy was unfamiliar and its practice undeveloped.
This book explores the deep roots of modern democracy, focusing on geography and long-term patterns of global diffusion. Its geographic argument centers on access to the sea, afforded by natural harbors which enhance the mobility of people, goods, capital, and ideas. The extraordinary connectivity of harbor regions thereby affected economic development, the structure of the military, statebuilding, and openness to the world – and, through these pathways, the development of representative democracy. The authors' second argument focuses on the global diffusion of representative democracy. Beginning around 1500, Europeans started to populate distant places abroad. Where Europeans were numerous they established some form of representative democracy, often with restrictions limiting suffrage to those of European heritage. Where they were in the minority, Europeans were more reticent about popular rule and often actively resisted democratization. Where Europeans were entirely absent, the concept of representative democracy was unfamiliar and its practice undeveloped.
Chapter 11 presents statistical tests of the relationship between European ancestry and democracy. A wide range of model specifications is utilized including varying measures of democracy, varying measures and temporal configurations of "Europe," and varying samples. The chapter also replicates previous work in this area and demonstrates how the theory serves to complement extant research. The chapter concludes with some estimates of the causal impact and a discussion of challenges to causal inference in this context.
Chapter 8 shifts away from harbors and toward the role of European ancestry as another explanatory factor for democratic regimes. Representative democracy is argued to have acted as a club good that Europeans extended when they were numerous relative to indigenous populations and withheld otherwise. European ancestry may encourage democratic regimes through three possible pathways: exposure to democratic ideas, increased democratic infrastructure (e.g. education, property rights, and a political state), and incentives to control political outcomes.
Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one’s lifetime. Mark Twain (2007 [1869]) The roles of natural harbors and European-led globalization are of more than historical interest, as they continue to influence the course of regimes in the twenty-first century. However, they are also part of a larger story extending forward and backward in time, which we label connectedness (or connectivity).
Chapter 3 lays out the book’s theoretical argument for the impact of harbors on democracy. Littoral geography facilitates democratic development because waterways – and the corresponding need for harbors – increase mobility of people, goods, capital, and ideas, leading to increased economic development, military organization, statebuilding, and openness to the world. We do not attempt to decompose the effect of each of these factors in this chapter, but note that they are interconnected in complex ways.
This book explores the deep roots of modern democracy, focusing on geography and long-term patterns of global diffusion. Its geographic argument centers on access to the sea, afforded by natural harbors which enhance the mobility of people, goods, capital, and ideas. The extraordinary connectivity of harbor regions thereby affected economic development, the structure of the military, statebuilding, and openness to the world – and, through these pathways, the development of representative democracy. The authors' second argument focuses on the global diffusion of representative democracy. Beginning around 1500, Europeans started to populate distant places abroad. Where Europeans were numerous they established some form of representative democracy, often with restrictions limiting suffrage to those of European heritage. Where they were in the minority, Europeans were more reticent about popular rule and often actively resisted democratization. Where Europeans were entirely absent, the concept of representative democracy was unfamiliar and its practice undeveloped.
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57 members
Marta Bivand Erdal
  • Social Dynamics
Henrik Urdal
  • Conditions of Violence and Peace
Scott Gates
  • Conditions of Violence and Peace
Siri Camilla Aas Rustad
  • Conditions of Violence and Peace
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Henrik Urdal
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https://www.prio.org/
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(+47) 22 54 77 00
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