Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment

An intact, species-rich natural environment forms the basis for human life. It provides clean water, nourishment and sufficient space for a wide variety of activities and experiences. However, while the services provided by functioning ecosystems are recognised in environmental reports, the factor of natural capital has to date hardly played any role in economic calculations and company balance sheets. It is vital that public and corporate reporting systems take account of natural assets and ecosystem services because this is the only way to ensure that they are given sufficient consideration in political and economic decision-making processes. The introduction of this new and transparent form of economic reporting is also being called for and supported internationally by the United Nations, the World Bank and the European Commission. Against this background, our article looks at the question of how biodiversity and ecosystem services can be incorporated into economic reporting at governmental and corporate level. It was written as part of the project “Appreciating biodiversity – modernising economic accounting in Germany” (Bio-Mo-D), whose aim is to provide a range of actors from business, politics and society at large with information to enable them to make integrated, ecologically sustainable decisions – and thus to demand and support a greater appreciation of nature, measurable via key indicators on biological diversity and ecosystem services. In the following, we first provide an overview of information sources and data products for ecosystem accounts available at national level in Germany. We focus on Germany, but in an EU and global context. The results of these accounting systems, which can be integrated into political and economic decision-making, should be easily understood by the general public and provide a basis for scientific analyses. As “flow” variables, information on ecosystem services contributes to societal well-being by improving decision-making processes, in particular, by demanding and supporting a greater appreciation of nature, measurable via biodiversity and ecosystem service indicators. A new paradigm is emerging both in companies globally and within European regulations, namely the explicit consideration of nature and its services as the basis for holistic corporate reporting, management and financing. As impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems, as well as interdependencies between ecosystem services, can be highly specific, depending on the sector, company activity and location, more detailed, sector-specific information will be needed in the future – ideally also from national accounting. Finally, we look at which institutions and actors can influence the field of action and discuss how the process of expanding economic reporting to include natural capital can be viewed as a “social innovation”. We postulate that ecosystem data and indicators are relevant to economic policy because they open up room for manoeuvre and can be used to identify solution pathways. They help national authorities and institutions as well as lower tier authorities identify potential conflicts of interest when planning areas relevant to nature conservation, to justify decisions on the conservation of natural capital and to communicate these to stakeholders and the wider public.

A multitude of stakeholders, encompassing various sectors, are involved in the modernization of ecosystem-related reporting in Germany at both corporate and national levels. The Bio-Mo-D project aims to identify pathways towards these objectives and recognize key stakeholders and their roles. Employing an explorative stakeholder model aids in comprehending the factors facilitating and hindering each objective, as well as the interconnections between them and the roles played by numerous stakeholders. A refined descriptive model further illustrates generic dynamics, facilitating the identification of major stakeholders along impact chains. This enhanced understanding of processes, triggers, and dynamics enables the Bio-Mo-D project to identify e.g. potential advocacy coalitions , underscoring the significance of pilot applications in catalyzing the dynamics of reinforcing feedback loops in the mainstreaming process and the need for feasible science-policy-interfaces .

While prolonged exposure to radon is one of the most significant risk factors for lung cancer, public awareness and willingness to mitigate the risk are typically low, even in regions with high radon concentrations. Given this, it has been voiced that health protection agencies should follow a more targeted risk communication approach (Perko & Turcanu, 2020). While targeted and tailored risk communication approaches have been shown to be successful, especially regarding so-called lifestyle risks (smoking, unhealthy diet, etc.), the effects of targeted radon risk communication from a health protection agency perspective have not been analyzed thus far. To this end, we conducted an online experiment. Four web pages were created targeting four stakeholder groups: (1) tenants and (2) house owners in municipalities with high radon concentrations, (3) tenants and (4) house owners in areas adjacent to municipalities with high radon concentrations. The content of the web pages was designed based on the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection's (BfS) materials. Participants (n = 293 valid cases) were randomly assigned either to the experimental or control group. We assessed differences between the stakeholder groups regarding information comprehension, risk perception, behavioral intention, perceived efficacy of measures against radon, and (personal) uncertainty regarding radon. In a MANOVA including all five dependent variables, the null hypothesis that there are no differences regarding these variables between the stakeholder groups could not be rejected (Wilk's Λ = 0.9980, p = .99). Given an achieved statistical power of 1-β = .93 for effects of medium size according to Cohen, it is quite unlikely that medium or large effects can be achieved by targeting risk communication to the stakeholder groups described above, given our data. As the statistical power to detect small effects was low (1-β = .21), these cannot be precluded. Potential reasons for this finding and implications for risk communication practice are discussed.

Djahane Salehabadi verweist mit dem Begriff „Unmaking Technology“ auf einen unterbelichteten Teil des technischen Lebenszyklus: Nach dem auch in der STS-Forschung ausführlich betrachteten Genese- und Nutzungsprozess des making kommt das unmaking oder ,Entschaffen‘. Die vorliegende Arbeit widmet sich einem solchen Prozess des unmaking unter besonderen Bedingungen. Der schwedische Atommüll soll unterirdisch in mehreren hundert Meter Tiefe für bis zu einer Million Jahre sicher von der Umwelt abgeschirmt werden, ohne die explizit eingeplante Option, ihn wieder hervorzuholen.

Um „den Entstehungs-, Kommunikations- und Verarbeitungsprozess von Nichtwissen“ (Bogner 2005: 72) zu analysieren, bedarf es passender Methoden, die diesen rekonstruieren können. Dies ist besonders deshalb eine Herausforderung, da Nichtwissen, im Sinne des hier verwendeten Verständnisses, auch im Englischen oder Schwedischen kein alltagssprachlich präsentes Konzept darstellt. Die Auseinandersetzung mit Nichtwissen und dessen Bedeutung für die Entsorgung muss daher analytisch rekonstruiert werden, ohne dass direkt danach gefragt werden kann.

Das Bewusstwerden der Kontingenz wissenschaftlichen Wissens, besonders vor dem Hintergrund komplexer und weit in die Zukunft reichender Problemstellungen, schlägt sich in den letzten 30 Jahren in einer verstärkten Hinwendung der Soziologie zu Theorien des Nichtwissens nieder. Das klassische Wissenschaftsverständnis, das Nichtwissen als Noch-Nicht-Wissen begreift, welches sich durch ausreichende Forschung auflösen lasse, bricht auf. Die sozialen Konstruktions-, Definitions- und Anerkennungsprozesse von dem, was gar nicht oder nicht abschließend gewusst werden kann, sowie dessen politische Dimensionen geraten verstärkt in den Blick.

Im vorliegenden Kapitel werden die Prozesse und Bedingungen des Zugriffs auf Nichtwissen beschrieben und analytisch dargestellt. Dies geschieht auf der Grundlage der theoretischen Überlegungen aus Kapitel 2 und dem dort entwickelte Analysevokabular. Als Leitschnur dient die analytische Differenzierung in Konstruktionsbedingungen von Nichtwissen, die Bewertung von Nichtwissen sowie der Umgang mit Nichtwissen. Alle empirischen Beispiele könnten in ähnlicher Form auch für den jeweils anderen Abschnitt analytisch fruchtbar gemacht werden, da die Aufteilung als idealtypisch zu verstehen ist.

Im Folgenden skizziere ich kurz die Geschichte der schwedischen Entsorgung seit den 1970er-Jahren. Detaildarstellungen zu einzelnen Aspekten finden sich besonders in Abschnitt 5.1 und Kapitel 6. Ergänzt wird die hier dargestellte Entsorgungsgeschichte durch Kurzportraits der zentralen Akteure des Feldes.

Obschon der schwedische Umgang mit der Entsorgung radioaktiven Abfalls gerade von ausländischen Beobachtern allzu oft als beispielhaft bezeichnet wird, verlief und verläuft er alles andere konfliktfrei. Ein Konflikt, der den Problembearbeitungsprozess entscheidend zu bestimmen vermochte, ist die Kupferkorrosions-Kontroverse (in der gängigen Literatur zumeist als Copper Corrosion Controversy bezeichnet und im Folgenden mit CCC abgekürzt). An ihr wird exemplarisch deutlich, dass gerade bei komplexen Problemlagen das Nichtwissen in seiner Bedeutung oftmals dem Wissen überlegen ist.

Digital mobility services have great potential to increase passengers’ transportation options, improve their experiences and reduce exclusion. However, these advantages are only available to those who can access and use these services effectively. To facilitate the development of inclusive services, information is needed on the range of potential users’ technology access, use, attitudes and capabilities. A population-representative survey examining these characteristics was carried out with 1010 participants in Germany in 2020. The results are examined for groups and intersections of groups identified in previous work as particularly vulnerable to either digital or mobility exclusion. Older people, people with disabilities and people with low education levels had particularly low levels of all technology variables. Caution is thus required when rolling out digital mobility services. Non-digital alternatives are needed to ensure an inclusive service and any digital interfaces need to be designed carefully to be usable by and reassuring to digital novices.

Futures research always involves a host of individual and collective actors, each with their own expectations and needs (see “Understanding the Type, Role, and Specificity of the Research Audience”). For instance, in contract research funders put a premium on practical relevance and utility. Generally, future researchers should work to ensure that their results are impactful by considering possible follow-on measures as they design the study (see “Aligning Research with Ambitions for Action”). Ultimately, however, it is the findings that determine whether the research objectives have actually been achieved. Through the application of targeted models (“Theoretical Foundation”), concepts (“Operational Quality”), and methods (“Method Selection”), future researchers can produce well-founded results that add to the knowledge base (“Scientific Relevance”). Yet findings are practically relevant, useful, and effective only if they meet the knowledge requirements of the funder and are utilizable by all the pertinent actors.

Like modern societies themselves, the audiences for futures research are incredibly diverse. The research audience is a constitutive element of futures studies, and often figures explicitly in a project’s focus. Indeed, effective futures research takes into account the constitution and interests of its audience. Doing so requires a precise analysis of the specific context and characteristics of the audience and a consideration of the ways those aspects can change over the course of a project.

The response of root growth to various osmotic potentials is quite important in assessing the drought resistance of rice. This study modeled seminal root growth by applying consecutive polyethylene glycol (PEG) treatments (from 0 to 25%, 1% step), mathematical equations and noncontact image analysis to quantitatively evaluate the root response. Treatment began after seeds were germinated, and root growth was recorded by a digital camera every day from 7 to 20 days after seeding (DAS). Although the seminal root length (SRL) measured by image analysis slightly varied with DAS, the equations explained the differences in SRL increases under each PEG concentration relatively well (R ² = 0.774). The equations also suggested that the maximum seminal root length was observed at 5.9% PEG. This numerical characterization of root growth is an effective means of evaluating drought resistance.

Mobile services accessible solely via digital interfaces are becoming increasingly common. This may result in the exclusion of many potential users because they lack the access to the required digital technologies, the capability to operate the interfaces or the attitudes for successful technology engagement. This paper focuses on the issue of access as a first step in understanding this exclusion. Analysis from a recent population-representative survey in Germany (n=1010) provides a baseline exclusion prediction for mobile services with different technology requirements, for example a service that requires the user to install an app on a smartphone versus or a service that provides information via a website on a smartphone. The analysis has been carried out on the whole population and selected vulnerable-to-exclusion groups, such as those over the age of 65, women and those with low educational achievement. The results suggest that services that only offer access via an app which needs to be downloaded onto a mobile device can exclude significant numbers of potential users.

Der Beitrag fasst die Ergebnisse eines bundesweiten Expertenpanels zum Thema digitale Kollaboration zusammen. Ausgewählte Expert:innen aus Wissenschaft, Wirtschaft und Arbeitnehmervertretung wurden im Rahmen eines „digitalen Zukunftssalons“ dazu eingeladen, Zukunftsthesen zum Thema digitale Kollaboration zu bewerten und Fragen zu beantworten. Die gewonnenen Erkenntnisse lassen sich direkt für die Erarbeitung von Leitlinien und Empfehlungen bei der Implementierung von Social Business übertragen.