German Federal Employment Agency, Nuremberg

Objectives This study evaluates the association between trust in health care professionals and health care delays across 21 countries. Methods We apply logistic regression models to survey data of over 621,000 individuals collected in Spring 2023. Results Results show 44.5% of respondents with medical conditions experienced delays in accessing health care and 44.1% reported lack of trust in health care professionals. Those who trusted health care professionals had significantly lower odds of delaying medical care. Trust was most strongly associated with delays in the United Kingdom (OR = 0.373, 95% CI = 0.273–0.510), while South Africa had the smallest association (OR = 0.762, 95% CI = 0.582–0.997). Conclusion Trust is important in influencing health care-seeking behaviors, though the causal direction warrants further research. There is a need for targeted strategies to build and sustain trust in health care relationships as well as enhancing health care access.

Objectives The widespread impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health systems, economies, and societies globally requires comprehensive data to guide effective recovery efforts. Online surveys have become crucial for rapid and extensive data collection. The Pandemic Response Survey (PRS), utilizing the Facebook Active User Base (FAUB), assessed the pandemic’s population-level impacts across 21 countries, gathering information on healthcare, vaccine confidence, trust, and economic and educational indicators. Methods Conducted from March to May 2023, the PRS, translated into 15 languages, used the FAUB for gender-stratified random sampling of adults 18 years and older. The survey collected responses from 621,000 individuals, achieving a completion rate of 43%. Non-response and inverse propensity score weights were applied to calibrate the data to known demographic totals, enhancing the survey’s generalizability. Results The PRS findings reveal disparities in life satisfaction, food security, delayed healthcare, vaccine confidence, and trust across countries. Life satisfaction was reported as high by 70%–80% of respondents in Egypt, Nigeria, Colombia, and Mexico, while only 20%–30% of respondents in Indonesia, Turkiye, and Viet Nam reported the same. Approximately 50% of respondents in Nigeria, South Africa, and Colombia experienced food insecurity, in contrast to less than 10% in Italy, Japan, and Germany. In Germany, 44% of respondents expressed high vaccine confidence compared to 10.6% in South Africa. Over half of respondents in Indonesia (52.4%) reported that their child was up to date on routine immunisations. Conclusion The PRS demonstrates the effectiveness of online surveys in capturing actionable data during a global health crisis. The findings underscore the importance of targeted interventions and policy decisions to address the multifaceted challenges of pandemic recovery. Collaborative efforts in data collection and knowledge sharing between nations with shared profiles may foster more effective strategies.

This study investigates researcher variability in computational reproduction, an activity for which it is least expected. Eighty-five independent teams attempted numerical replication of results from an original study of policy preferences and immigration. Reproduction teams were randomly grouped into a ‘transparent group’ receiving original study and code or ‘opaque group’ receiving only a method and results description and no code. The transparent group mostly verified original results (95.7% same sign and p-value cutoff), while the opaque group had less success (89.3%). Second-decimal place exact numerical reproductions were less common (76.9 and 48.1%). Qualitative investigation of the workflows revealed many causes of error, including mistakes and procedural variations. When curating mistakes, we still find that only the transparent group was reliably successful. Our findings imply a need for transparency, but also more. Institutional checks and less subjective difficulty for researchers ‘doing reproduction’ would help, implying a need for better training. We also urge increased awareness of complexity in the research process and in ‘push button’ replications.

Data from online non-probability samples are often analyzed as if they were based on a simple random sample drawn from the general population. As the exact sampling frame for these non-probability samples are usually unknown, there is no general method to construct unbiased estimators. This raises the question of whether estimates based on online non-probability samples are consistent across sample vendors and concerning estimates based on probability samples. To address this question, we analyze data collected from eight different online non-probability sample vendors and one online probability-based sample. We find that estimates from the different non-probability samples can be very inconsistent. We suggest averaging estimates across multiple vendor samples to avoid the risk of a maximum estimation error. We evaluate several averaging approaches, including a LASSO regression procedure which identifies a subset of vendors that, when averaged, produce estimates that are more consistent with the reference probability-based estimates, compared to any single vendor. Our results show that estimates based on different vendors’ samples display different selection biases, but there is also some commonality among some vendor-specific estimates, thus there could be strong gains in estimation precision by averaging across a selection of multiple non-probability sample vendors.

Background The interactions between unemployment and mental health are complex. However, broad and current epidemiological data about the mental health status of unemployed individuals in Germany are scarce. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence rates of mental disorders and work ability among all unemployed people who underwent socio-medical assessment by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA). Methods Socio-medical assessments between 2016 and 2021 were taken from the FEA database and analyzed regarding sociodemographic characteristics, mental disorders and work ability. Standard descriptive statistics were used to analyze the data. Results A total of 4,249,028 unemployed individuals were assessed. Of these, 2,213,048 persons (52.1%) had at least one psychiatric diagnosis (mean age 40.6 ± 13.5 years, 51.7% female). Mood disorders (53.9%), neurotic, stress-related and somatoform disorders (43.9%), as well as substance use disorders (15.3%) showed the highest prevalence rates among mental disorders and accounted for about 80% of all psychiatric diagnoses. About 40% of them were evaluated to be able to work full time. Conclusions Psychiatric morbidity among unemployed people is high. However, a significant proportion of them was assessed to be able to return to the labor market. Therefore, close collaborations between unemployment agencies and mental health care institutions as well as specific re-integration programs including supported job placement and vocational training, long-term job coaching as well as integrated mental health care are required in order to improve mental health status, prevent further chronification, avoid labor market exit, and increase employment rate.

This chapter explores the contribution of the metaverse for the public sector. For this purpose, a capability map is created that classifies and describes business capabilities for different areas of the public sector. We discuss several possible metaverse applications for Germany’s Federal Employment Agency and describe how they can be implemented using interactive learning games.

The statistical foundations of person parameter estimation for the multivariate Thurstonian item response theory (TIRT) model of pairwise comparison and forced‐choice (FC) ranking data are elaborated, and several misconceptions in IRT and TIRT are addressed. It is shown that directional information (i.e. multivariate information as defined by Reckase & Kinley, 1991; Applied Psychological Measurement, 15, 361) is not suited to quantify the precision of the estimates unless the Fisher information matrix is diagonal. The asymptotic covariance can be quantified by the inverse Fisher information matrix if the genuine likelihood is used and by the inverse Godambe information for independence likelihood estimation that results from ignoring within‐block dependencies of pairwise comparisons. Analytical expressions are provided for the genuine likelihood and the Fisher information matrix for a generalized TIRT model that comprises binary pairwise comparison and ranking designs, which enables maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and Bayesian estimation (maximum a posteriori probability with normal and Jeffreys prior) of person parameters. The bias of the MLE is quantified, and methods of bias prevention and bias correction are introduced. The correct marginal likelihood of graded pairwise comparisons is provided that might be used for person parameter estimation based on the independence likelihood.

Among the most important merits of modern missing data techniques such as multiple imputation (MI) and full-information maximum likelihood estimation is the possibility to include additional information about the missingness process via auxiliary variables. During the past decade, the choice of auxiliary variables has been investigated under a variety of different conditions and more recent research points to the potentially biasing effect of certain auxiliary variables, particularly colliders (Thoemmes & Rose, 2014). In this article, we further extend biasing mechanisms of certain auxiliary variables considered in previous research and thereby focus on their effects on individual diagnosis based on norming, in which the whole distribution of a variable is of interest rather than average coefficients (e.g., means). For this, we first provide the theoretical underpinnings of the mechanisms under study and then provide two focused simulations that (i) directly expand on the collider scenario in Thoemmes and Rose (2014, appendix A) by considering outcomes that are relevant to norming and (ii) extend the scenarios under consideration by instrumental variable mechanisms. We illustrate the bias mechanisms for two different norming approaches and exemplify the procedures by means of an empirical example. We end by discussing limitations and implications of our research.

Zusammenfassung Angesichts von Digitalisierung, Dekarbonisierung und demografischem Wandel stehen Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft zu Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts vor großen Veränderungen. Die Bundesagentur für Arbeit hat den Anspruch, als ein zentraler Akteur des deutschen Arbeitsmarktes diesen Transformationsprozess aktiv und vorausschauend mitzugestalten. Um den damit verbundenen Herausforderungen angemessen begegnen zu können, muss die Bundesagentur einerseits ihre Innovationsfähigkeit ausbauen, andererseits aber auch das laufende Kerngeschäft absichern und optimieren, um die akuten Krisen (Pandemie, Krieg) abzufedern. Wie gelingt der Spagat zwischen Innovation, Flexibilität und Agilität auf der einen Seite und Stabilität, Effizienz und Krisenbewältigungsmodus auf der anderen Seite? Ein aktueller Lösungsansatz zum Umgang mit diesem Spannungsverhältnis lautet: Ambidextrie. Bei der Gestaltung der ambidextren Organisationen kommt der Führung eine entscheidende Bedeutung zu. Sie hat die zentrale Aufgabe, diesen Spagat zwischen Wandel und Stabilität und die damit verbundenen Paradoxien dynamisch auszutarieren. Die Ambidextrieforschung steht jedoch zum Thema Führung noch am Anfang. Auf der Grundlage der synoptischen Analyse unterschiedlichster Führungstheorien hat die Bundesagentur für Arbeit ein ambidextres Führungsmodell entwickelt und eingeführt, das wir im folgenden Beitrag darstellen werden.

The Medical Service of the Federal Employment Agency is responsible for socio-medical assessments of clients whose ability to work in the labor market is in question. Data about the Medical Service, its structure, and its performance were previously only available within the Federal Employment Agency. In October 2023, data from the Medical Service containing information on the employee structure, clients, and orders were extracted from three data systems, processed, and analyzed. The number of full-time equivalents (FTEs) in the Medical Service decreased significantly from 2016 (n = 859.1 FTEs) to 2021 (n = 799.0 FTEs). This holds true for the professional groups of physicians, specialist assistants, medical assistants, and externally contracted physicians. The number of female employee FTEs rose significantly during this period from 85.6% (2016) to 87.0% (2021). The part-time ratio also increased significantly from 41.4% (2016) to 50.6% (2021). The number of assignments to the Medical Service was stable in 2017–2019 at around 630,000 but showed a reduction in 2020 (n = 518,538) and 2021 (n = 545,289); in particular, the number of assessments with client contact decreased significantly from 2019 (n = 166,980) to 2020 (n = 52,484). Most of the assignments came from the field of job placement (n = 349,346). The size of the Medical Service was in line with the total number of orders, which can certainly be seen as COVID-19-related in 2020 and 2021 and is likely due to the overall shortage of skilled personnel. The proportion of women and part-time employees increased significantly, with a nationwide part-time trend emerging not only among women. In order to enable all clients who may be unable to perform in the labor market to receive a quick assessment, it is necessary that the number of employees in the Medical Service does not decrease in the future.

Zusammenfassung Teilqualifizierungen (auch: Teilqualifikationen) sind ein relativ neues Instrument im Instrumentenkasten der aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Deutschland. Sie bieten in ausgewählten Berufsfeldern die Möglichkeit, einzelne Bausteine beruflicher Qualifikation zu erwerben. Damit sollen sie die Arbeitsmarktchancen von formal gering Qualifizierten, d. h. von Personen ohne eine abgeschlossene Berufsausbildung, verbessern und es Teilnehmenden ermöglichen, schrittweise durch das Absolvieren einzelner Modulbausteine mittelfristig einen vollwertigen Berufsabschluss zu erwerben. Bislang ist allerdings noch wenig über die empirische Verbreitung, den konkreten Einsatz und die Wirkungen von Teilqualifizierungen bekannt. Deshalb untersucht dieser Beitrag mithilfe von administrativen Daten der Bundesagentur für Arbeit und eines statistischen Matching-Ansatzes, welche Effekte Teilqualifizierungen auf Beschäftigung und Einkommen haben. Empirisch zeigt sich, dass Teilnehmende häufig nur ein Teilqualifizierungsmodul von mehreren möglichen absolvieren. Vergleicht man Teilnehmende an diesen Teilqualifizierungen mit ähnlichen nichtteilnehmenden Arbeitslosen, so findet man Beschäftigungseffekte in der Größenordnung von zehn bis fast 15 Prozentpunkten, die inhaltlich bedeutsam und statistisch signifikant sind. Effekte auf das Einkommen der Teilnehmenden sind ebenfalls positiv und substanziell. Sie können durch höhere Löhne und bessere Beschäftigungschancen getrieben sein. In Berufsfeldern, in denen sowohl Teilqualifizierungen als auch Umschulungen gefördert werden, zeigen sich ähnlich hohe Beschäftigungseffekte für beide Maßnahmentypen. Umschulungen haben aber einen etwas größeren positiven Effekt auf das erzielte Einkommen.

Ochsenfeld (2016) has found that a substantial part of sex segregation in higher education results from differences in vocational interests (i.e., preferences), while constraints (e.g., relative math grades) play only a minor role. We challenge the validity of these findings because earlier work employed a cross-sectional student sample and might therefore suffer from endogenous selection (i.e., post hoc rationalizations due to simultaneous reporting of majors and preferences) and postoutcome collider bias (i.e., conditioning on the outcome). Our replication study uses panel data (National Educational Panel Study, NEPS-SC4) that allow adjustment for the two sources of bias through the application of a pretransition preference measure and inverse probability weighting. Our analyses demonstrate the validity of prior research. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that the explanatory power of the overall model and the role of constraints for sex segregation in majors vary across the propensity of sample inclusion, thereby demonstrating the importance of sample composition for testing sociological theories.

Einleitung Evidenz zu sozioökonomischer Ungleichheit im SARS-CoV-2-Serostatus in späteren Pandemiephasen ist rar, kann aber zur Identifizierung von sozial ungleich verteilten Risiken für schwere COVID-19-Verläufe und Ansatzpunkten für Prävention beitragen. Diese Analyse untersucht sozioökonomische Unterschiede in SARS-CoV-2-Antigenkontakten durch Infektion und/oder Impfung nach einem Jahr Impfkampagne in Deutschland. Methoden Die Auswertungen basieren auf Daten der Studie „Corona-Monitoring bundesweit – Welle 2“ (n=10.448, November 2021 – Februar 2022). Es wurden adjustierte Prävalenz Ratios (PR) mittels Poisson-Regressionen berechnet um Einkommens- und Bildungsunterschiede in der SARS-CoV-2-Infektion, COVID-19-Impfung, Grundimmunisierung sowie in mind. drei Antigenkontakten zu schätzen. Ergebnisse Niedrige Bildungsgruppen zeigen ein 1,35-fach erhöhtes Infektionsrisiko (95%-KI 1,01–1,82; p=0,045), wohingegen ein höheres Bildungs- und Einkommensniveau positiv mit der COVID-19-Impfung und Grundimmunisierung assoziiert sind. Die größten Unterschiede bestehen bei drei Antigenkontakten (niedrige vs. hohe Bildung: PR 0,74; 95%-KI 0,65–0,84; p<0,001; niedriges vs. hohes Einkommen: PR 0,66; 95%-KI 0,57–0,77; p<0,001). Schlussfolgerung Gruppen mit niedriger/mittlerer sozioökonomischer Position zeigen eine niedrigere Prävalenz von wiederholten Antigenkontakten v.a. durch Impfung und sind dadurch wahrscheinlich schlechter vor schweren COVID-19-Verläufen geschützt. Die Ergebnisse weisen auf Potenziale zur Verbesserung des Impfschutzes in der Bevölkerung hin.