Central Washington University

The ability to make careful observations of challenging problems and to use those observations to develop an accurate mental model is extremely helpful for managerial decision-making. This black box exercise explores these concepts using a digital representation of a box where participants can only observe inputs and outputs from the box. After making careful observations, individuals try putting together a model of a mechanism inside the box that could explain what they are seeing. Small teams then discuss these individual models and come up with a team model that they feel works best. These models are shared and discussed as a class, making it easy to emphasize the importance of careful observation and the way in which mental models impact decision-making. This activity can be used for a range of audiences and includes variations for asynchronous and synchronous online formats.

The unexpected custody of a family heirloom leads to the unearthing of women’s family history that is intertwined with the idealistic pursuit of Jewish utopian agricultural communes among Ashkenazi communities facing Russian pogroms. Examines the challenges facing the process of unearthing obscured ethnic American history from family heirlooms.

INTRODUCTION Previous studies investigating socioeconomic status and tobacco consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic were survey-based. To extend knowledge beyond prevalence rates and trends of tobacco consumption, qualitative research is needed to identify individual's experiences. There is a critical gap within this context, particularly in low-middle income countries. The aim of the study was to perform a qualitative analysis on consumption patterns of tobacco users from a low-middle income country during the COVID-19 pandemic, and to identify factors influencing motivation to quit tobacco products during the pandemic and the perceptions of self-risk for complications of tobacco consumption and COVID-19. METHODS A qualitative study was conducted in São Paulo, Brazil in September 2020. We used a focus group with semi-structured interviews. Participants were invited to answer questions about behavioral and consumption patterns of tobacco products during early stages of COVID-19 pandemic. Two investigators independently performed triangulation of content of the transcripts. Data were analyzed using inductive content analysis. RESULTS Eighteen participants were evaluated (66.7% males) with mean age 34.1 ± 14.9 years. Many participants presented high levels (33.3%) of nicotine dependence. Thematic analysis of participants' narratives resulted in two themes: Theme 1: Behavioral and psychological factors impacting consumption; and Theme 2: Consumption patterns, dependence, and information. Open-coding process resulted on four codes: 1) Behavioral and lifestyle changes; 2) Psychological and motivational factors; 3) Consumption patterns and dependence; and 4) Information exposure and awareness. Nine categories were generated from the codes. CONCLUSIONS Behavioral and consumption patterns varied significantly in tobacco users in Brazil during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, ranging from increases to no changes. Individuals consuming tobacco products showed awareness about the harmful effects of smoking and COVID-19 complications.

The English mycological and toxicological literature has, for decades, asserted that muscarine concentrations in Amanita muscaria are insignificant based on a study from the 1950s that demonstrated muscarine levels in fresh A. muscaria mushrooms at a meager 0.0003%. This position has been maintained despite frequent reports of cholinergic symptoms following consumption of this mushroom and despite the dated study upon which this position is based. To update the literature on A. muscaria’s pharmacology and to address disparities between the current scientific consensus on the role of muscarine, a cholinergic compound, in A. muscaria poisonings and the frequent reports of cholinergic symptoms following its ingestion, four steps were taken: (1) surveys were collected from 53 individuals who experienced cholinergic symptoms following ingestion of A. muscaria; (2) mushroom samples were procured for HPLC-MS/MS analysis from three survey participants; (3) mushrooms were collected independently for HPLC-MS/MS analysis; and (4) commercial analyses of Amanita muscaria were compiled to illustrate a range of muscarine concentrations. Survey results demonstrated that mild-to-moderate cholinergic symptoms were experienced at doses that reflect common use of the mushroom for recreational, therapeutic, and spiritual purposes (1 – 20 g dried). Results of HPLC-MS/MS analyses demonstrated muscarine concentrations ranging from 0.004% up to 0.043%, significantly exceeding the consensus value. Study findings demonstrate that current understandings of muscarine concentrations in A. muscaria are inaccurate, and that the occurrence of muscarine in A. muscaria must be understood as a broad range, one that ranges from the insignificant up to physiologically significant levels.

To the known causes of overconfidence in decisions and judgments, we reveal another source that derives from a bias during the act of decision making. While this bias, the predecisional distortion of information, is well studied, its impact on overconfidence is not. We demonstrate how the distortion of information creates overconfidence in those professionals often regarded as singularly overconfident, entrepreneurs. When these professionals use a sequence of relevant information to make an accept-reject decision about a business opportunity, a cycle of confidence-distortion-confidence builds unjustified confidence in the chosen action – and does so whether that action is to accept or reject the venture. Overconfidence is a well-recognized cause of flawed decision making. Our work demonstrates the paradoxical converse of this claim, that flawed decision making can be a cause of overconfidence.

There is a vast and ever‐accumulating amount of behavioural data on individually recognised animals, an incredible resource to shed light on the ecological and evolutionary drivers of variation in animal behaviour. Yet, the full potential of such data lies in comparative research across taxa with distinct life histories and ecologies. Substantial challenges impede systematic comparisons, one of which is the lack of persistent, accessible and standardised databases. Big‐team approaches to building standardised databases offer a solution to facilitating reliable cross‐species comparisons. By sharing both data and expertise among researchers, these approaches ensure that valuable data, which might otherwise go unused, become easier to discover, repurpose and synthesise. Additionally, such large‐scale collaborations promote a culture of sharing within the research community, incentivising researchers to contribute their data by ensuring their interests are considered through clear sharing guidelines. Active communication with the data contributors during the standardisation process also helps avoid misinterpretation of the data, ultimately improving the reliability of comparative databases. Here, we introduce MacaqueNet, a global collaboration of over 100 researchers (https://macaquenet.github.io/) aimed at unlocking the wealth of cross‐species data for research on macaque social behaviour. The MacaqueNet database encompasses data from 1981 to the present on 61 populations across 14 species and is the first publicly searchable and standardised database on affiliative and agonistic animal social behaviour. We describe the establishment of MacaqueNet, from the steps we took to start a large‐scale collective, to the creation of a cross‐species collaborative database and the implementation of data entry and retrieval protocols. We share MacaqueNet's component resources: an R package for data standardisation, website code, the relational database structure, a glossary and data sharing terms of use. With all these components openly accessible, MacaqueNet can act as a fully replicable template for future endeavours establishing large‐scale collaborative comparative databases.

Background The Tigray region of Ethiopia has a significantly high prevalence of neural tube defects (NTDs), ranging from 1.31 to 2.15% of total births. The prevalence has worsened due to ongoing regional war and conflict since October 2020. This study aims to assess NTD prevalence in these challenging conditions. Methods This institution-based, retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted across 11 public hospitals in the Tigray region. The study reviewed all delivery records from October 2020 to December 2023. Data were collected from hospital records, focusing on cases of neural tube defects (NTDs) and relevant maternal and neonatal characteristics. This retrospective analysis aimed to identify the prevalence of NTDs, as well as factors contributing to their occurrence. The data analysis involved using SPSS version 27 for comprehensive data management and statistical evaluation. Descriptive statistics provided an overview of the data, while binary logistic regression offered insights into the factors associated with neural tube defects. The results were systematically presented in both textual, tabular, graph formats to facilitate understanding and interpretation. Results Out of 54,626 delivery records, 1,612 cases of NTDs were identified (1,434 NTD cases and 178 isolated hydrocephalus cases). The specific birth prevalence of NTDs was 262.5 per 10,000 (95% CI, 249.1-276.5 per 10,000), with NTDs being the predominant cause of stillbirths. Anencephaly (136.6 per 10,000), spina bifida (110.6 per 10,000) and encephalocele (15.4 per 10,000) were the most common defects. Risk factors for NTDs include maternal age (20–29 years), rural residency, first pregnancies, a history of early neonatal death, lack of folic acid and multivitamin use, as well as neonatal factors like stillbirth, male sex, and preterm birth. Conclusion This study reveals the alarmingly high prevalence of neural tube defects (NTDs) in the Tigray region, with a birth prevalence of 262.5 per 10,000 births. Anencephaly, spina bifida, and encephalocele were common, contributing to stillbirths. Risk factors include maternal age (20–29), rural residency, first pregnancies, lack of folic acid and multivitamins, and neonatal factors like male sex and preterm birth. The findings stress the need for public health interventions, including folic acid awareness, better prenatal care, maternal nutrition research, stronger health systems, and a national surveillance system to prevent birth defects.

Polar ice cores and historical records evidence a large-magnitude volcanic eruption in 1831 CE. This event was estimated to have injected ~13 Tg of sulfur (S) into the stratosphere which produced various atmospheric optical phenomena and led to Northern Hemisphere climate cooling of ~1 °C. The source of this volcanic event remains enigmatic, though one hypothesis has linked it to a modest phreatomagmatic eruption of Ferdinandea in the Strait of Sicily, which may have emitted additional S through magma–crust interactions with evaporite rocks. Here, we undertake a high-resolution multiproxy geochemical analysis of ice-core archives spanning the 1831 CE volcanic event. S isotopes confirm a major Northern Hemisphere stratospheric eruption but, importantly, rule out significant contributions from external evaporite S. In multiple ice cores, we identify cryptotephra layers of low K andesite-dacite glass shards occurring in summer 1831 CE and immediately prior to the stratospheric S fallout. This tephra matches the chemistry of the youngest Plinian eruption of Zavaritskii, a remote nested caldera on Simushir Island (Kurils). Radiocarbon ages confirm a recent (<300 y) eruption of Zavaritskii, and erupted volume estimates are consistent with a magnitude 5 to 6 event. The reconstructed radiative forcing of Zavaritskii (−2 ± 1 W m ⁻² ) is comparable to the 1991 CE Pinatubo eruption and can readily account for the climate cooling in 1831–1833 CE. These data provide compelling evidence that Zavaritskii was the source of the 1831 CE mystery eruption and solve a confounding case of multiple closely spaced observed and unobserved volcanic eruptions.

Understanding and predicting glacier instabilities represents one of the greatest challenges in forecasting future sea level rise. Here, we present a study of Hektoria Glacier on the Eastern Antarctic Peninsula, which underwent an unprecedented rate of glacier retreat of ~25 km from January 2022 to March 2023. Retreat commenced after the loss of decade-old fast ice in the Larsen B embayment. This loss of buttressing resulted in a 6-fold increase in flow-speed that produced a 40-fold increase in the glacier thinning rate. In November 2022, Hektoria Glacier transitioned from calving large tabular icebergs to buoyancy-driven calving associated with the transition from a floating to a lightly grounded terminus. By the end of December 2022, ~10 km of grounded ice calved; a retreat rate an order of magnitude faster than any reported in the modern record. Our results suggest that this record retreat was a result of extremely rapid buoyancy-driven calving as the ice front reached an ice plain. The Hektoria case implies that glaciers with ice plain bed geometry can be easily destabilized by loss of buttressing. The resulting extreme effect on ice discharge underscores the importance of identifying outlet glacier regions with similar characteristics.

This paper developed a closed-loop supply chain network (CLSCN) optimization model with corporate social responsibility (CSR), recycling, remanufacturing, refurbishing, and transaction cost on a supply chain consisting of manufacturers, retailers, a new product demand market, and a retailer-refurbished product demand market. The manufacturers produce substitutable products using raw materials from two sources, new and recycled. The retailers, in turn, face the demands of new products and retailer-refurbished products, and recycle from the new product demand market. We investigated a number of cases, and our results indicate that CSR can enhance CLSCN performance but more to the party closest to the demand market. It also shows that consumer behavior, competition, CSR investment, and sustainable practices (new material procurement, recycling, refurbishing, re-manufacturing, and environmental costs), play an essential role in CSR and closing the loop. With higher landfill cost, more willingness to return from consumers, less disutility for consumers to return, higher level of recycling and refurbishing, and higher re-manufacturing rate, CSR level tends to improve. Policy-makers can use these findings to encourage firms to improve CSR in CLSCN.

In an era of global change, historical natural history data can improve our understanding of ecological phenomena, particularly when evaluated with contemporary Indigenous and place‐based knowledge. The Yáláƛi (Goose Island) Archipelago is a group of islands in Heiltsuk (Haíɫzaqv) territory on the Central Coast of British Columbia, Canada. Not only has this region been important to the Heiltsuk for millennia but also it is both a federally and internationally recognized important bird area. In this study, we compare data collected by Charles J. Guiguet, a biologist who documented bird communities at Yáláƛi in the summer of 1948, to three different contemporary surveys and to citizen‐science data. We find that the relative abundances of forest bird species (i.e., birds that use the terrestrial island ecosystems) in 1948 differed to those observed in systematic surveys in 2011. While Orange‐crowned Warblers, Dark‐eyed Juncos, and Red Crossbills comprised 55% of detections by Guiguet in 1948, the three most abundant species in 2011 were Bald Eagles, Varied Thrushes, and Pacific Wrens, and these accounted for only 25% of detections. Although we could not make a quantitative comparison, we provide summaries of each species observed in surveys or reported on eBird. We also incorporate Heiltsuk place‐based knowledge to enrich our discussion of the variability in bird communities over time, from how changes in mammal communities and human use may have shaped vegetation dynamics to how large‐scale natural phenomena impacted topography. To understand which birds are present and how their communities are changing over time, we recommend continued monitoring of the bird communities at Yáláƛi.