Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung

This study investigates how the transition to parenthood is associated with shifts in personal attitudes and perceived public opinion towards formal childcare for children under three years. Using German panel data, we analyse those changes during the family formation phase using panel regressions with linear between-within (hybrid) models. The results for within-components suggest that cultural perceptions are strongly influenced by lifecourse events. After the birth of the first child, parents are less sceptical about daycare for children under three; however, we did not find any systematic changes in perceived public opinion. Between-components reveal that women, though less sceptical themselves, are more likely to perceive societal scepticism. There is an increasing divergence between personal attitudes and the perception of public opinion regarding formal childcare. This points to a conflict between the desire to use formal childcare and societal expectations, which has strong implications for gender equality.

In recent years, the digitisation of historical data containing cause-of-death information has significantly increased. However, these data show considerable variations in diagnostic practices and nosology over time and place. Examining vague historical causes of death, often denoting symptoms rather than specific diseases, is a particular challenge. Infantile convulsions are an example of a common yet problematic cause of death. To improve our understanding of infantile convulsions, we propose an innovative mixed-methods, comparative approach. This study combines qualitative analyses of historical medical thinking on infantile convulsions with quantitative analyses of individual-level death records from four European cities: Amsterdam, Hermoupolis, Maastricht, and Rostock, covering different periods between 1800 and 1955. Our findings reveal that infant deaths attributed to convulsions encompass a multitude of causes from different disease categories. Significant differences emerged in the patterns of convulsions across time, age groups, and locations, even within the same country. The decline in convulsions mortality seems to be more related to the introduction of uniform registration regulations and systems, and advancements in medical knowledge than to the decline in overall infant mortality. This study’s outcome serves as a cautionary note that challenges the prevailing attitude towards convulsions and emphasises the complexity of interpreting deaths from convulsions. These were highly dependent on historical context, especially local medical culture and the variable accuracy of cause-of-death registration. These findings have implications for studies on infant mortality even when the main interest of such studies is not convulsions mortality.

This paper examines the new ties refugees form within the first years after arriving in destination countries. While prior research has assessed new ties mainly in relation to integration outcomes and within inter-ethnic ties, our analyses take a broader view of the importance of new contacts by systematically adopting an ego-centric network approach and by differentiating between various types of networks (emotional support, companionship, and practical support network). Drawing on representative quantitative survey data of recent refugees from Eritrea and Syria collected in Germany in 2020 (TransFAR survey), our analytical approach is divided into two parts: First, we investigate on the alter-level (i.e., the persons mentioned in the network) who the newly met persons are and which kind of support they provide, employing descriptive analyses. Second, we conduct multivariate regression analyses on the ego-level (i.e., the respondent) to examine the migration and family-related factors associated with forming new ties. The empirical findings underscore the importance of new contacts as crucial sources of resources and support, particularly in providing practical assistance. Furthermore, our study shows that migration and family-related factors are important for establishing new ties: refugees having other family members in Germany, either a spouse or because they arrived together with kin, are less likely to include newly established contacts in their networks compared to those without a spouse or who arrived in Germany without family. The relative importance of these factors varies between network types. Moreover, as migration circumstances and family constellations differ by gender and country of origin, substantial variations concerning the formation of new ties are observed between men and women and between refugees from Eritrea and Syria.

Spousal bereavement is one of the most disruptive life events encountered during adulthood. However, we know little about whether and how the impacts of spousal loss on well-being have changed over the past decades. To examine such historical shifts, we applied area under the curve (AUC) metrics and latent basis growth models to multi-year within-person longitudinal change data from 2,044 participants ( M age at event = 65.73 years, 70% women) obtained annually across almost four decades from the German Socio-Economic Panel (1984–2020). We found that compared to the 1980s and 1990s, those experiencing spousal loss in the 2000s and 2010s showed less severe declines in well-being between 5 years before and after the loss. This improvement was driven mostly by shallower anticipatory declines and faster recovery in the adaptation phase (both by about 0.1 SD per 10 years of historical time), rather than changes in the immediate reaction phase. We found little to no evidence that the role of socio-demographic, health, and social factors as moderators of bereavement has changed across the past 40 years. We take our findings to highlight that both historical context and individual difference factors are shaping how people experience critical life events such as bereavement.

This study investigates the extent to which immigrants in Germany are faced with infertility, and it examines their use of reproductive health-care services. Previous research on migrant fertility centered mostly on the higher fertility rates of immigrants and their adaptation processes, but has largely neglected infertility. At the same time, research on infertility in the European low-fertility context has focused almost exclusively on non-migrant populations. Our results indicate higher infertility and lower seeking of medical help among migrants as compared with non-migrants. However, there is substantial heterogeneity between different migrant groups: First-generation migrants show higher risks of infertility and lower use of medical help to get pregnant. The study also shows differences according to (parents’) regions of origin: Persons from Russia, Central Asia, and the Middle East (including Turkey) have a higher risk of perceiving infertility or uncertainty about it than other European origin groups. Those from Russia and Central Asia have the lowest use of medical help-seeking. These group differences cannot be explained by socioeconomic factors. Our results suggest that certain immigrant groups—despite having on average a higher number of children—face notable reproductive disadvantages, which deserve further attention in research on migrant fertility and assisted reproduction in general.

Little is known about social gradients in cause-specific infant mortality in the nineteenth century. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to explore this connection for the time prior to the epidemiologic and demographic transitions. We used the church records of Rostock, an important port city on the Baltic coast in northern Germany, and prepared and merged the baptismal and burial registers of its largest parish (St. Jakobi) for the periods 1815–1836 and 1859–1882. Based on individual-level data (N = 16,880), we classified the fathers’ occupations into three social classes and estimated cause-specific infant mortality risks for these groups using event history analysis. We found a clear social gradient in neonatal and post-neonatal mortality. This gradient was driven by waterborne diseases and convulsions, suggesting severe nutritional and sanitation deficits among the lower social classes even before the city began to struggle with worsening living environments following industrialisation and population growth in the second half of the nineteenth century. Our results also suggest that deteriorating environmental conditions affect all parts of the population, leading to an increase of infant mortality rates in all social classes. Improvements in nutritional and sanitary conditions may thus reduce the risk of infant death from infectious diseases.

Background With the increase in the prevalence of working from home (WFH), understanding its impact on health has become more relevant. However, the possibility that health effects may depend on the specific WFH arrangement has largely been ignored in research. Objective The aim of this study is to offer a differentiated view of WFH by distinguishing between informal overtime at home and telework during recognized working time when assessing its associations with mental and physical health complaints. Moreover, the extent of telework is considered. The study also differentiates the group of WFH non-users by distinguishing between voluntary non-use and employer-directed non-use. Methods We apply OLS regression models with clustered standard errors by occupation to probability-based survey data that is representative of employees in Germany. The analytical sample was restricted to employees whose job tasks could be performed at home (N = 10,365). Results Compared to employer-directed non-users, working informal overtime at home is associated with more mental health complaints, while telework is associated with fewer mental and physical health complaints. However, the beneficial association between recognized telework and mental health only applies to employees with relatively small extents of telework. At higher extents of telework, the mental health advantages disappear, while those for physical health tend to remain. Conclusion This study suggests that a nuanced look at patterns of use and non-use of WFH is essential when gauging its impact on health.

Situations of vulnerability are associated with reduced life satisfaction. Although social support moderates the influence of situations of vulnerability, little is known about their associations. This study aimed to document situations of vulnerability and examine their association with life satisfaction among older adults, and the moderating effect of social support. Secondary analyses of cross-sectional data (n = 21,491; 73.4 ± 0.04) from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging, stratified by sex. Confirmatory factor analysis identified a vulnerability variable from physiological, psychological, socioeconomic and social indicators. Regression models examined the associations. For both sexes, depressive symptoms, chronic conditions and insufficient income best explained vulnerability, followed by dependence in basic activities of daily living, less social participation and living with fewer people. Vulnerability was associated with lower life satisfaction, and social support acted as a buffer against vulnerability. The buffering effect of social support reinforces recommendations concerning policies and interventions designed to increase networks.

This study examines an inconsistency between an attitude and a behaviour: non-use of contraception among people who are not trying to get pregnant. More than one in four people in that situation report not using contraception ‘sometimes’ or ‘always’ and consequently face the risk of pregnancy. We test three potential explanations: acceptability of having (further) children; perceived low pregnancy risk; and perceived social pressure. Using 10 waves of the German pairfam panel, we estimate sex-specific between–within models, where each explanation is tested by several indicators. We find evidence for the explanation of a(nother) child being considered acceptable: a positive fertility desire increases contraceptive non-use among women and men, and relationship duration increases it among women. Supporting the explanation of low perceived pregnancy risk, analyses show that perceived infertility, breastfeeding, and age increase the probability of non-use of contraception for women and men. However, there is no strong evidence for perceived social pressure affecting contraceptive non-use.

Early education provision in the state‐maintained sector has historically played an important role in ensuring equitable access to high‐quality early education in England. These settings have higher qualification requirements than other providers, and as they have been concentrated in areas of higher disadvantage, children from lower income households have been more likely to attend them. This paper shows that this phenomenon is changing: children from lower income households are considerably less likely to attend maintained settings than they were in 2010. Their higher likelihood compared with other children is also declining, while the share attending private nursery settings has increased sharply. Using the National Pupil Database, the paper explores the reasons why, identifying three main factors: a general decline in maintained provision across the country, probably linked to changes in national funding practices; changes in the geography of poverty; and the extension of free early education places to disadvantaged 2‐year‐olds, which inadvertently led to children entering and remaining in lower quality settings. The paper illustrates the inherent trade‐off policymakers face between expanding early childhood education and care provision and maintaining the quality necessary for services to function as social investment. It contributes both to early childhood education and care policy studies in England and to the wider international literature on mixed economy approaches to early childhood education and care.

Over the last 15 years, many European countries have experienced fertility declines. Existing research on this shift in fertility behavior points to economic aspects and increased levels of uncertainty as important drivers. However, in this debate little attention has been paid to how the relevance of individual- and contextual-level dimensions for understanding the new fertility patterns varies by level of urbanization. This is surprising given that urban and rural areas not only differ strongly in fertility timing and levels, but also in economic conditions. Our paper fills this important research gap by analyzing rich register data from Finland using multi-level event history models to study the transition to first birth among younger (under age 30) and older (ages 30 or older) women. We show that urban–rural differences in the transition to parenthood are particularly pronounced among younger women. In addition, the results indicate that economic circumstances and related uncertainties are more relevant for understanding first births probabilities for younger women than older women. Finally, among younger women, the relevance of economic circumstances and related uncertainties seems to be most relevant in the capital region of Helsinki and urban areas compared to semiurban and rural areas. Our findings underline that the urban–rural dimension should receive more attention in research on fertility in times of uncertainty.

A substantial share of patients at risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) fail to achieve control of CVD risk factors, but clinicians lack a structured approach to identify these patients. We applied machine learning to longitudinal data from two completed randomized controlled trials among 1502 individuals with diabetes in urban India and Pakistan. Using commonly available clinical data, we predict each individual's risk of failing to achieve CVD risk factor control goals or meaningful improvements in risk factors at one year after baseline. When classifying those in the top quartile of predicted risk scores as at risk of failing to achieve goals or meaningful improvements, the precision for not achieving goals was 73% for HbA1c, 30% for SBP, and 24% for LDL, and for not achieving meaningful improvements 88% for HbA1c, 87% for SBP, and 85% for LDL. Such models could be integrated into routine care and enable efficient and targeted delivery of health resources in resource-constrained settings.

Population change in Germany at the subnational level is particularly driven by changes in net international migration and shifts in internal migration flows between urbanisation, suburbanisation and counter‐urbanisation. Official population projections at the county level use a single scenario, thereby omitting uncertainty that arises from changing patterns in the assumed components of demographic change. We use a cohort‐component model that incorporates the spatial distribution of a net number of international migrants and internal migration matrices to provide population projections for 401 counties in Germany until 2070, encompassing nine total international and internal migration scenario combinations. Our results show a full potential outcome space of future subnational population change in Germany and highlight the variability in this possible change in terms of population structure, size, and spatial distribution. Across the scenarios, the total population of Germany is projected to be between 74.25 and 86.84 million people in 2040 (83.4 in 2023). There are also considerable differences in how the total population and its distribution might change spatially, both between urban and rural areas and in age structure. Thus, depending on the assumed absolute level of net international migration and the direction of internal migratory patterns we, highlight how internal and international migration patterns will continue to play a large role in future population development in Germany at the county level.

A majority of German households are occupied by renters. There are indications of growing inequality through disproportional income increases among high-income households and disproportional rent increases among low-income households. On the basis of the German Socio-Economic Panel, the author examines rent-income ratios (RIRs) and differentiates between migrants and natives. How did RIRs develop between 1990 and 2020, and are there any differences across the distribution? There are three key findings. First, dynamics of RIRs suggest rising economic inequality among both migrants and natives. Second, although both groups grew more unequal over time, the inequality increase was stronger among migrants. Third, migrants generally faced steeper rent hikes than natives, which partly accounts for a higher rent burden among income-poor migrants. These descriptive findings point out avenues for systematic research of the increases in inequality related to rent and income dynamics and their ethnoracial stratification.

Zusammenfassung Gewalterfahrungen in der Kindheit erhöhen das Risiko für psychische Probleme im Erwachsenenalter. Wie die frühe institutionelle Betreuung in der DDR mit Gewalterfahrungen assoziiert ist und Angst und Depression im Erwachsenenalter beeinflussen, ist wenig erforscht. Die Stichprobe umfasst N=1743 Personen, geboren in der DDR (1949–1983). Mit Multigruppen-Pfadanalysen (stratifiziert Männer/Frauen) untersuchen wir den Einfluss vorschulischer Betreuung über den Mediator Kindheitstrauma (CTS) auf Ängstlichkeit (GAD-7) und Depressivität (PHQ-9) im Erwachsenenalter. Es zeigen sich keine direkten Effekte der vorschulischen Betreuung auf Ängstlichkeit und Depressivität. Kindheitstrauma wirkt sich signifikant auf die aktuelle psychische Gesundheit aus (Frauen β=0,253–0,610; Männer β=0,092–0,439). Die Analysen legen nahe, dass es keinen Zusammenhang zwischen institutioneller Betreuung und Gewalterfahrungen in der Kindheit gibt. Weiterer Kontextfaktoren in Betreuung sind für die Entwicklung bevölkerungsweiter Präventionsstrategien, für die Sicherheit von Kindern von Bedeutung.