Albany State University

We suggest a novel approach to use density forecasts from surveys to identify asymmetry in forecaster loss functions. We show that we can calculate the loss function parameters for Lin-Lin and Quad-Quad loss functions based on the first order condition of forecast optimality. Since forecasters form their point forecasts based on what they believe to be the data generating processes and their loss functions, we can reverse this process and learn about forecaster loss functions by comparing their point forecasts and density forecasts for the same target. The advantage of this method is that we can relax the two assumptions needed in Elliott, Komunjer and Timmermann’s (2008) GMM method: the point forecasts and density forecasts need not to be rational and the loss function parameters need not to be constant over time. Moreover, we do not need to know the actual values of the target variable. This method is applied to density forecasts for annual real output growth and inflation obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) during 1968-2023. We find that forecasters treat underprediction of real output growth more dearly than overprediction, reverse is true for inflation.

Objective Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are traumatic events occurring before age 18 and can increase cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Many sexual minority men (SMM) and men living with HIV (MLWH) have trauma histories and elevated CVD risk. We investigated the association between ACEs and CVD risk among SMM living with and without HIV (MLWH and MLWOH). Design and methods Data were from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (n = 1245; n = 650 MLWOH, n = 595 MLWH). Participants self-reported 20 ACEs reflecting household dysfunction and victimization. CVD risk was measured with Framingham (FRS-H) and American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association-Pooled Cohort Equation (ACC/AHA-PCE) scores. Longitudinal generalized estimating equations using 10 years of repeated CVD measures were examined with each ACE type, total number of ACEs, and ACE latent classes. Results The prevalence of each ACE was high, ranging from 50.3% to 83.8%. Childhood sexual orientation-related victimization was positively associated with CVD risk for MLWOH (β FRS-H = 2.95, SE = 1.48, p = 0.005; β ACC/AHA-PCE = 3.31, SE = 1.48, p = 0.002) and MLWH (β FRS-H = 2.69, SE = 1.58, p = 0.03; β ACC/AHA-PCE = 2.82, SE = 1.62, p = 0.03). Among MLWH, ACE Class 2 (characterized by high sexual orientation-related victimization, moderate levels of parental abuse, and household dysfunction) was associated with higher CVD risk (β FRS-H = 3.63, SE = 1.78, p = 0.03; β ACC/AHA-PCE = 3.09, SE = 1.78, p = 0.05). Dose-response associations were observed for the full sample when considering the total number of ACEs, though attenuated in models stratified by HIV status. Conclusions ACEs were associated with CVD risk among MLWH and MLWOH. Assessing ACE history in clinical encounters may yield important insights for the prevention and management of CVD. This study underscores the importance of trauma-informed care for this population.

We assess how an economy’s wealth distribution shapes its labor market dynamics. We do so in a quantitative job-ladder model featuring directed search, incomplete markets, aggregate shocks, and endogenous on-the-job human capital accumulation. Poorer workers apply for lower-wage jobs when unemployed and under-accumulate human capital when employed to self-insure against unemployment risk. In response to an aggregate downturn, poorer workers reduce their human capital accumulation, all else equal, while richer workers increase it. The wealth distribution therefore matters for the response of aggregate human capital. In the calibrated model, we show that a negative aggregate productivity shock leads to a persistent decline in aggregate human capital, and a more dispersed wealth distribution would amplify this decline.

Narrative persuasion has been widely used in health communication campaigns and persuasive message design. However, several meta-analyses showed that the relative effectiveness of narratives in promoting behavior change was not consistently observed in the existing literature. With the goal of exploring boundary conditions of narrative effects, this study investigates the interaction effects of narrative persuasion and stages of change on promoting behavior change in the context of encouraging parents to vaccinate their children against human papillomavirus (HPV). Findings from an online experiment (N = 593) showed that non-narrative messages were more effective in bolstering behavioral intention than narrative messages among people who were not ready to engage in behavior change (i.e. in the precontemplation stage). In addition, among people who were thinking about changing their behavior (i.e. in the contemplation stage) or motivated to take action (i.e. in the preparation stage), both narratives and non-narratives were effective in increasing behavioral intention. This study contributes important theoretical insights to the role of narratives in health communication. Public health professionals may consider tailoring message design strategies to audience characteristics to enhance message effectiveness.

Although American Indian and Alaska Native people make up less than 2% of the US population, they are disproportionally affected by adverse health outcomes, including disabilities. The Indigenous community of the Mohawk Nation at Akwesasne has faced significant environmental contamination since the 1970s, resulting from operations of three aluminum foundries near the community. The aim of this study was to explore the potentially moderating effects of social support and cultural identity on disability, taking into account age, sex, and health comorbidities among 119 Akwesasne Mohawk adults. We used the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule II (WHO-DAS II) to measure disability, the Duke University Social Support Scale with Likert-type responses to quantify social support, and the Orthogonal Ethnic Identification Scale to calculate cultural affiliation. We found that overall social support was significantly negatively associated with disability related to self-care (Relative Risk (RR) = 0.96, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.93, 1.00). Both family support (RR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.94, 0.99) and non-family support (RR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.94, 1.00) were negatively associated with disabilities that prevent full participation in society. Cultural affiliation to either the white culture or the Mohawk culture was not significantly associated with disability. Although preliminary, our findings may help inform clinicians advising American Indians and Alaska Natives with disabilities on helpful interventions to provide greater social support. This may in turn improve the quality of life of indigenous communities facing a high prevalence of disability.

Males have increased mortality after a cancer diagnosis than females, possibly due to poorer immunosurveillance. We tested whether the female survival advantage is lost with immunosuppression by evaluating 17,048 cancer patients (68% male) with a prior solid organ transplant using data from the US Transplant Cancer Match Study and 1,221,914 cancer patients (58% male) from the general population using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. We evaluated 13 solid cancers that occur in both sexes. We compared mortality due to cancer in males and females using a male:female hazard ratio (M:F HR) derived from Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, diagnosis year, stage, and cancer treatment. Among cancer patients in the general population, males had higher cancer‐specific mortality than females for cancers of the lip, stomach, colorectum, anus, liver, lung, skin, brain, and thyroid, with M:F HRs ranging from 1.06 to 1.59. Only colorectal cancer showed an attenuation in the female mortality advantage in transplant recipients (M:F HRTransplant: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.77, 1.03; vs. M:F HRGenPop: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.08; P‐interaction = 0.007). Among kidney cancer patients, the female mortality advantage was stronger in the transplant population (M:F HRTransplant: 1.33; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.60; M:F HRGenPop: 1.02; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.04; P‐interaction = 0.003). Overall, we did not find consistent evidence that the female advantage in cancer mortality is weakened among immunosuppressed transplant recipients, suggesting that non‐immune factors contribute to the female advantage among cancer patients in the general population.

Introduction Youth HPV vaccination rates have yet to reach the national goal of 80 percent. One understudied population with respect to the HPV vaccine is youth with special healthcare needs. This study seeks to understand differences in HPV vaccine health information preferences and ratings of narrative content of parents with children with special healthcare needs to inform future communication efforts to improve HPV vaccine rates. Methods A national sample of U.S. parents and caregivers (N = 512) were recruited through Qualtrics panels. Parents completed a survey about their oldest child aged 9–14. Parents who answered yes to “Does this child need or use more medical, mental health, or education services than most children who are the same age?” were classified as having an index child with special healthcare needs. The survey also measured social media use and information seeking, narrative engagement, and perceptions of usefulness and understanding of vaccine messages. Results Fifteen percent (N = 77) of parents indicated that their index child had special healthcare needs. These parents were more likely to have a male index child, report social media as a first source of health information, and report greater understanding of HPV vaccine information presented in the stimulus materials. There were no differences for most demographics, social media use, HPV vaccine information source, and perceived usefulness of the HPV vaccine information. Conclusion Overall, parents in this sample with and without an index child with special healthcare needs are similar in terms of how useful they found the materials. Parents with children who have special healthcare needs may have a greater preference for accessing information on social media, and may be better able to understand narrative health messages.

The DNA binding of most Escherichia coli Transcription Factors (TFs) has not been comprehensively mapped, and few have models that can quantitatively predict binding affinity. We report the global mapping of in vivo DNA binding for 139 E. coli TFs using ChIP-Seq. We use these data to train BoltzNet, a novel neural network that predicts TF binding energy from DNA sequence. BoltzNet mirrors a quantitative biophysical model and provides directly interpretable predictions genome-wide at nucleotide resolution. We use BoltzNet to quantitatively design novel binding sites, which we validate with biophysical experiments on purified protein. We generate models for 124 TFs that provide insight into global features of TF binding, including clustering of sites, the role of accessory bases, the relevance of weak sites, and the background affinity of the genome. Our paper provides new paradigms for studying TF-DNA binding and for the development of biophysically motivated neural networks.

A bstract In this paper we discuss gauging noninvertible zero-form symmetries in two dimensions, extending our previous work. Specifically, in this work we discuss more general gauged noninvertible symmetries in which the noninvertible symmetry is not multiplicity free, and discuss the case of Rep( A 4 ) in detail. We realize Rep( A 4 ) gaugings for the c = 1 CFT at the exceptional point in the moduli space and find new self-duality under gauging a certain non-group algebra object, leading to a larger noninvertible symmetry Rep(SL(2, ℤ 3 )). We also discuss more general examples of decomposition in two-dimensional gauge theories with trivially-acting gauged noninvertible symmetries.

Bhubaneswar, Odisha, experiences an increasing trend of heavy rainfall events (HREs). This study aims to configure the WRF mesoscale model configuration at a hectometre scale and undertakes numerical experiments at a 0.5 km grid spacing. The experiments simulate HREs and assess the various physical parameterization schemes to identify suitable combinations for the region. Sensitivity experiments with various physical parametrization options identified the top eight combinations based on rainfall statistics. Their performance was further evaluated by simulating an additional four HREs over Bhubaneswar. A novel rank analysis approach based on statistical techniques to determine the rank of each configuration. The Noah-MP; Ferrier; Multi-Scale Kain-Fritsch (MFS), Noah-MP;Ferrier; Kain-Fritsch (MFK), as well as Noah; Lin;No cumulus (NLN), and Noah; Ferrier; No cumulus (NFN) emerged as the top performers in simulating precipitation. The study also tested eight parameterization combinations for simulating air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The top configurations change when a different variable is used as a reference. However, a broad choice of MFS, MFK, and Noah-MP; Ferrier; No cumulus (MFN) merged as the top configurations in simulating HRE characteristics. These model configurations were independently tested and yielded good performance in simulating the atmospheric pre-storm environment and storm characteristics. Broadly stated the choice of Noah-MP instead of the Noah land model, with Ferrier and Multi-Scale Kain-Fritsch schemes could yield good results- though there is no singular best potential. These findings help establish the computational framework for studying and improving the understanding of heavy rainfall, enhance weather hazard preparedness, and offer an optimized WRF model for forecasting HRE in cities.

In this chapter, we investigate the potentials and limitations of psychoanalytic epistemology when conceptualising creative disruptions to established systems of knowledge. Taking queer theorist Jack Halberstam as a privileged interlocutor, we offer a critical elaboration on the ways in which forgetfulness and stupidity may subvert routinised ways of knowing and being in the world. From a psychoanalytic perspective, we contend that the memory-work elicited in the analytic session is not aimed at completing knowledge about the past but at losing one’s mother (i.e. being able to forget), and that a sustained engagement with unconscious knowledge is not aimed at mastering truth but at staying stupid (experiencing truth as knowledge-in-failure). In a final reflection, we suggest that while the epistemic principles at the core of the psychoanalytic experience hold disruptive potential, they are limited tools that need to be supplemented with ethical, aesthetical, and political considerations.

Extracellular matrix remodeling is a natural response to injury but, excessive extracellular matrix accumulation, or fibrosis, is a causative factor in hundreds of diseases that limit organ function, regenerative responses, and can interfere with regenerative therapies. Fibrosis is closely related to inflammation, both of which occur in the salivary glands of patients treated with radiation for head and neck cancers and in patients suffering from autoimmune conditions, such as Sjögren's Disease. Despite the known involvement of fibrosis in disease and the inhibitory effects of fibrosis on tissue regeneration, the mechanisms through which extracellular matrix is elaborated in the salivary gland are poorly understood. Stromal fibroblasts are the primary matrix-producing cells and are known to drive both fibrosis and inflammation. To define the temporal responses of fibroblasts to injury, we induced a temporary obstructive injury though ligation of the primary submandibular and sublingual salivary gland ducts and then performed single-cell RNA sequencing and pathway analysis at timepoints immediately following the injury. Using bioinformatic approaches, we identified three unique fibroblast groups that dynamically respond to the injury. We characterized the changes in matrisomal and inflammatory gene expression over a 7-day time course and identified one group of fibroblasts to be the primary injury-responsive fibrogenic cell type. Understanding how fibroblasts respond at the early and later injury timepoints, along with defining signaling pathways regulated by fibroblasts, could lead to a better understanding of the contribution of fibroblast to acute injury responses to facilitate the development of therapeutics that minimize fibrosis and promote regenerative gland responses in chronic disease states.

Phase differences imparted by tissue are significantly larger than attenuation differences. In addition, small angle scatter from tissue microstructure can provide a dark field signal that is complementary to attenuation and phase. Unfortunately, the low spatial coherence of clinical sources reduces phase and dark field contrast. Our method structures the beam with a single low-cost wire mesh that does not need precise alignment and relaxes the coherence requirement on the source. In addition, focusing polycapillary optics, which can be permanently attached to sources, are employed to allow for the use of high-power primary sources by increasing the phase signal after the focus. However, the coarseness of the mesh reduces the phase and dark field signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) compared with grating-based techniques, so optimization of the phase and dark-field SNR is an important consideration. Here, we consider the impact on the SNR of the distances between the mesh and the source and detector, and of x-ray tube voltages, to optimize the system.

Moral injury is a unique form of psychosocial trauma caused by the violation of deeply held values. Predominantly studied in military and clinical psychology, recent calls for expansion to other fields have led to increased interest in organizational science. However, the general dearth of research and theory on moral injury in these disciplines has created space for prior literature to be misunderstood or misrepresented in a way that could unintentionally dilute the construct and thereby future research. Such is the case, in my view, of a recent qualitative study by Nielsen and colleagues (Journal of Business Ethics 194:233–249). In this commentary, I articulate what I see as several critical misalignments between this study and established moral injury theory and research. In doing so, I aim to provide conceptual clarity on what moral injury is versus what it is not, focused on construct validity and the appropriateness of measurement. I engage with these issues to add additional context and consistency to this growing literature. I conclude my comments noting several positive and additive contributions of this work, as well as my view of future directions for moral injury research in organizational science.

Objectives This study examines the extent to which “mass incarceration” has support among the American public as the lynchpin of correctional policy. Methods Three information experiments embedded in a 2023 nationwide YouGov survey of 1000 Americans tested whether providing facts about the extent and nature of incarceration impacts public opinion. Results Few Americans support the imprisonment binge; many are emotionally bothered by it and believe it is immoral, inhumane, and/or racist. The experimental information treatments had little impact on public opinion, which is consistent with the theory that popular discourse, media coverage, and personal and vicarious experiences with incarceration have increased Americans’ awareness of the carceral state. Conclusions The findings align with broader evidence that public punitiveness has declined in recent years, ushering in a new penal sensibility. The results suggest the “get tough” movement has lost traction in the United States, partly because of growing knowledge about the carceral state.

Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

Objectives Existing applications of the group position thesis emphasize interracial differences in policing attitudes. However, this theoretical approach struggles to account for attitudinal differences among White Americans and the increasing role of partisanship in structuring public opinion on policing. We propose a theoretical revision, framed-group-position theory, which posits that political framing is a chief influencer of White Americans’ attitudes toward policing and other social institutions. By contrast, non-White Americans’ policing attitudes are likely to be based on a collective understanding of experienced subordination. Methods In two studies, corresponding to two separate data sets ( N = 121,000 and N = 1,150), we test whether partisan affiliations differentially influence police reform support across racial identities and if the moderating effect of political beliefs is mediated by racial attitudes. Results Our findings suggest that political affiliation is differentially associated with police reform support across racial groups. Relative to White respondents, political affiliation has a weaker association with reform support among Black respondents, and this moderated effect is mediated by racial attitudes. Among other ethnoracial respondents, we found a similar yet less pronounced pattern. Conclusions Framed-group-position theory offers a systemic-racism centered framework to understand interracial differences in both levels and variability in policing and other criminal justice attitudes.