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reports several correlational measures of overall model fit to the NAES data, based on simulations using the New York Times and Newsday coverage of the campaign events.
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A computational model of political attitudes and beliefs is developed that incorporates contemporary psychological theory
with well-documented findings from electoral behavior. We compare this model, John Q. Public (JQP), to a Bayesian learning model via computer simulations of observed changes in candidate evaluations over the 2000 presidential
ca...
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Citations
... Therefore, because the impression is formed in real time, voters may act as bounded rationalists: they remember the summary register and do not remember the detailed analyzes that led to such an evaluation. This online processing model has been supported by numerous studies (e.g., Chung et al., 2012;Goggin, 2019;Laustsen & Petersen, 2020;Lodge et al., 1989Lodge et al., , 1995Rahn et al., 1994) as well as simulations based on survey data (Kim, , 2010). ...
In this article we focus on the politician’s brand and how it develops in the voter’s mind. Specifically, we examine how priming a candidate’s image or issue traits influences how individuals update their beliefs about a candidate, and in what way the consistency of image traits and issue traits affects this evaluation. The results from a two-factor design (message: consistent vs. inconsistent) × (information order: image first vs. issue first) suggest that sequential dissemination of information about the candidate’s issue positions, followed by image information (consistent with the program or not) results in a more positive evaluation of the candidate.
... exposure to different evidence) (60,84) or irrational (e.g. motivated beliefs that preserve self-image) (85,86). In either case, the process of belief updating using an intuitive causal model can entrench these initial differences into a robust structure of polarized supporting beliefs. ...
In polarized societies, divided subgroups of people have different perspectives on a range of topics. Aiming to reduce polarization, authorities may use debunking to lend support to one perspective over another. Debunking by authorities gives all observers shared information, which could reduce disagreement. In practice, however, debunking may have no effect or could even contribute to further polarization of beliefs. We developed a cognitively inspired model of observers’ rational inferences from an authority’s debunking. After observing each debunking attempt, simulated observers simultaneously update their beliefs about the perspective underlying the debunked claims and about the authority’s motives, using an intuitive causal model of the authority’s decision-making process. We varied the observers’ prior beliefs and uncertainty systematically. Simulations generated a range of outcomes, from belief convergence (less common) to persistent divergence (more common). In many simulations, observers who initially held shared beliefs about the authority later acquired polarized beliefs about the authority’s biases and commitment to truth. These polarized beliefs constrained the authority’s influence on new topics, making it possible for belief polarization to spread. We discuss the implications of the model with respect to beliefs about elections.
... The earliest arguments suggest that partisan information appears to motivate voters toward accuracy (Kruglanski 1989;Taber and Lodge 2006). But partisanship can also decrease accuracy (Bullock, Gerber, and Hill 2015;Jerit and Barabas 2012;Kim, Taber, and Lodge 2010;Lebo and Cassino 2007) in part, because people are directionally motivated to uphold their beliefs (Bolsen and Palm 2019). This is particularly true at higher levels of partisanship and higher commitment to prior attitudes (Lodge and Taber 2005;Taber and Lodge 2006). ...
I draw together theories of partisan polarization and motivated reasoning, which suggest that partisanship shapes information processing, and theories of accountability, which argue voters hold elected officials accountable through promise fulfillment. Here, I ask how partisanship influences voter understanding of promise fulfillment and accountability and if voters assess promises through a partisan lens. Two original survey experiments test how respondents react to promise fulfillment on the issues of immigration and human trafficking. I demonstrate that co-partisans differentiate between kept and broken promises, but out-partisans do not. Despite partisan differences, respondents evaluate promise-keeping when asked about accountability but not when asked about approval. Thus, even when voters recognize broken promises, accountability is influenced by partisanship. Immigration, a more polarized issue, is more likely to prime a partisan response than human trafficking, a less polarized issue. Future work must account for partisanship in accountability and what this means for our understanding of fundamental democratic principles.
... Advanced technologies of the artificial, like artificial intelligence, artificial life, machine learning and artificial autonomous agents have provided support for the development of research methodologies (Voinea, 2020;Voinea et al., 2022) addressing the complexity of political and social systems by means of the agent-based modeling and simulation methodologies (Axelrod, 1995;Cederman, 1997;Vallier, 2017), artificial society (Epstein and Axtell, 1996), artificial polity (Cioffi-Revilla and Rouleau, 2010), and artificial culture (Axelrod, 1995). The high impact of new disciplinary areas like Social Simulation (Gilbert and Troitzsch, 2005), computational modeling (Taber and Steenbergen, 1995;Taber and Timpone, 1996) have been emphasized by the increasing relevance of such methodology for the study of political information processing, political reasoning and judgement, electoral, and voting behavior (Kim et al., 2009;Lodge and Taber, 2013). ...
Political Science research methodologies include more advanced technologies and methodologies to face the challenge of studying the political phenomena in complex hybrid social and political systems which combine physical and virtual environments.
... All cognitions carry affect, which is easily extracted from new information, stored, and recalled when an evaluation or choice is called for. This is formalized in the JQ Public model, which has been shown to do a very good job of matching what real human participants do in a lab study of voter decision-making (Kim, Taber, & Lodge, 2010). Lavine and colleagues react to what they see as too little focus on the fact that many people aren't actually sure of what they feel, or simply cannot easily determine the direction of their feelings. ...
In recent decades, political psychologists have given a lot of attention to the role of emotions in politics. While there have been several different research programs, the dominant paradigm has been set by affective intelligence theory (AIT), developed by George Marcus, Russell Neuman, and Michael Mackuen. AIT has helped explain many puzzles in understanding how emotions influence political decisions, as any good paradigm should. At the same time, I argue it has also had the effect of limiting broader research into the range of discrete emotions, especially contempt. While recognizing the value of AIT, I call for more research that goes beyond its boundaries, showing through several recent studies how a focus on the additional effects of contempt can improve our understanding of voter decision-making.
... It is acknowledged that there are several ways to deal with the proposition of how voting decision is made such as model of Laver (2005) eminent as Agent -based model or models by Kollman et al. (1992) and Kim et al. (2010) famous as computational models. However, our approach is to use the methods that are handier and simpler to apply on large scale for garnering public views. ...
Voting patterns are the reflection of democratic traditions that are imbibed within the societal fabric. Pakistan and Australia are far off in case of developmental comparison but there seems to be similar barriers in the societies of both states in relation to women participation and role in politics. This article highlights the patterns which are prevalent in both societies in regards to voting decisions of female diaspora by empirical analysis and identify the similarities and contrasts in voting behaviour of two asymmetrically developed states facing the similar problems of limited role of women in politics. Based on the quantitative data analysis, this article focuses on the comparative analysis of the voting behavior of the two societies and indicates the criteria of rational decision making of the two developmentally different diaspora while advocating the basic notion of women political emancipation in the political sphere of life. Keywords: Voting behaviour, Pakistan, Australia, Women political Participation, Political Interest.
... A considerable literature centres on the consequences of motivated reasoning for candidate evaluations and vote choice (Goren, 2002;Kim et al., 2010;Lebo & Cassino, 2007;Lodge & Taber, 2013;Redlawsk, 2002), but the biases documented in these studies vary in the degree to which they undermine rationality. Some work appears inconsistent with Bayesian learning (Kim et al., 2010); voters predisposed to like a candidate become more favourable following receipt of negative information about thema finding Redlawsk (2002) describes as 'perverse'. ...
... A considerable literature centres on the consequences of motivated reasoning for candidate evaluations and vote choice (Goren, 2002;Kim et al., 2010;Lebo & Cassino, 2007;Lodge & Taber, 2013;Redlawsk, 2002), but the biases documented in these studies vary in the degree to which they undermine rationality. Some work appears inconsistent with Bayesian learning (Kim et al., 2010); voters predisposed to like a candidate become more favourable following receipt of negative information about thema finding Redlawsk (2002) describes as 'perverse'. But other work is less straightforward. ...
Rational choice theory explains and evaluates how individuals choose among alternative instruments to achieve their goals and objectives. Although much research on political decision-making highlights psychological biases that appear to interfere with rationality, the contrast between rational choice and the psychology of information processing is often narrowed by individual and contextual conditions that reduce cognitive biases and promote rational decision-making. This argument is developed by analysing research on heuristics (i.e., shortcuts and cues), motivated reasoning, and framing that pose challenges to rational choice. Three themes emerge from this review. First, there is systematic variation across individuals in the extent to which heuristics, biased reasoning, and framing produce unreasonable and suboptimal decisions. Second, there are definable informational and social contexts that provide incentives for people to engage in deliberate and accurate processing of information. Third, normative evaluations of empirical results have been hampered by inconsistent criteria for what constitutes good decision-making.
... Unfortunately, as Druckman and McGrath (2019) point out, these two processes are often observationally equivalent, and even cleverly designed experimental designs have struggled to disentangle those mechanisms. Previous research in general seems to suggest that the relationship between attitudes and knowledge is a mutual one (Kim et al., 2010). Therefore, we wish to acknowledge that reverse causality may have produced or contributed to the patterns observed. ...
European politicians have become increasingly concerned about the possible distorting effects of citizens not only being uninformed, but systematically misinformed about the European Union (EU). Against this background, this study assesses the role of EU knowledge in shaping the preference to vote to leave or remain in a (hypothetical) referendum on EU membership using cross-national survey data that were collected simultaneously in eight EU countries during the run-up to the 2019 EP elections. The surveys included a newly designed item battery of EU knowledge capturing both the accuracy as well as confidence in knowledge of the respondents. The results show that misinformedness is associated with a preference to leave the EU, the uninformed citizens tend to be undecided or not intending to vote, while the well-informed prefer to remain. Overall, our findings contribute to the ongoing debates about the role of misinformation in politics.
... Contemporary theories of motivated political reasoning (Jost & Amodio, 2012;Jost et al., 2009;Kim et al., 2010;Lodge & Taber, 2013;Taber & Lodge, 2016) offer highly valuable insight. However, these models are not computational (i.e., they do not explore the underlying logic or function of a psychological process (Marr & Poggio, 1976)). ...
... By adopting a computational approach (namely focusing on the function and logic of a psychological process) the BDMPR concerns a specific level of analysis. This approach is complemental to theories focusing on the algorithmic level, namely examining the fine-grained psychological processes at play (e.g., Kim et al., 2010;Lodge & Taber, 2013;Taber & Lodge, 2016). Some algorithmic models of political reasoning rely on the useful distinction between automatic and deliberative processes (Kim et al., 2010;Lodge & Taber, 2013;Taber & Lodge, 2016). ...
... This approach is complemental to theories focusing on the algorithmic level, namely examining the fine-grained psychological processes at play (e.g., Kim et al., 2010;Lodge & Taber, 2013;Taber & Lodge, 2016). Some algorithmic models of political reasoning rely on the useful distinction between automatic and deliberative processes (Kim et al., 2010;Lodge & Taber, 2013;Taber & Lodge, 2016). The former are considered to be fast, rigid, and subconscious, the latter to be slow, flexible, and conscious. ...
Motivated reasoning occurs when judgements subserve motives that go beyond accuracy seeking. Substantial evidence indicates that motivated political reasoning is ubiquitous. This is hard to reconcile with computational theories (following Marr's terminology, theories describing the fundamental principles underlying a cognitive process) like Bayesian inference, because these rely on accuracy maximization. Hence, motivated political reasoning is often interpreted as violating computational principles. Here we propose a different view by offering a computational account of motivated political reasoning which relies on the notion of Bayesian decision (instead of Bayesian inference). The key idea is that utility maximization, and not accuracy maximization, drives political thinking. This implies that agents will tend to endorse judgements that serve their instrumental goals even when evidence in support is poor (though agents will still believe their judgements are the most accurate). In this framework, motivated political reasoning is not interpreted as violating computational principles, although its nature is now conceived as pragmatic (i.e., serving instrumental goals) rather than epistemic (i.e., seeking understanding). The paper presents a mathematical description of the theory and shows how this can help interpreting important phenomena in political psychology such contextual priming, stereotyping, and displaced aggression.
... Research on motivated reasoning consistently shows that individuals develop negative affect and render snap judgments when they encounter new information that contradicts their preexisting attitudes as defensive processing to maintain their position (S. Y. Kim et al., 2010;Kunda, 1990). Such defensive processing frequently leads individuals to argue against the information presented to them, which may explain why opinionated news sources were also preferred for authentication with the gun control stimulus. ...
Using a mixed-design online experiment, this study examined how individuals determine the quality of information they encounter online and engage in information verification and authentication processes. An online experiment tested the effects of “fake news” labels as discounting cues on individuals’ ability to correctly identify disinformation and their motivations to authenticate it with other credible sources. Results showed main effects of this “fake news” cue in online comments on participants’ accuracy in identifying fake news, need to authenticate the information, and their reliance on legacy news channels to do so.
