Voter turnout in by-elections and general elections 

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... in Newfoundland: though only about 2% of federal constituencies are in that province, close to 11% of by-elections (13 of the 121 by-elections, to be more precise) were contested there. Most often, the prime minister calls by-elections in one, two, or three constituencies at a time. On a given by-election day in Canada, there are, on average, 2.5 constituencies at stake. Since 1963, by-elections occurred simultaneously in more than four districts only five times, with five ridings in May 1967, six in May 1977 and March 1996, seven in May 2002, and a record-breaking of 15 by-elections on the October 16th, 1978. Despite declining turnout, which we analyze in the next section, by-elections have become more contested events. The average number of candidates have steadily grown from the 1960s to the 1990s, followed by a slight reduction in the 2000s. Only one by-election, in the riding of Burin-Burgeo (Newfoundland) in 1966, was contested by two candidates. At the opposite end, the highest number of candidates running a by-election is observed for the riding of Hamilton- East (Ontario) in 1996. Following her resignation from Parliament over the failure of the Liberal government to abolish the GST, Sheila Copps rewon her seat against some 12 other candidates. By-elections are typically characterized by low levels of voter participation. For example, despite the national media attention paid to the most recent four by-elections - those which elected Bob Rae and Martha Hall Findlay to parliament, overturned a very slim Liberal general election win in northern Saskatchewan, and almost saw a Conservative victory in a previous Liberal stronghold in urban Vancouver - turnout levels did not exceed 34%. Generally speaking, we know that turnout in by-elections is lower than it is in general elections. But that statement alone masks some important facts. First, what determines how much lower it will be? That is, when is the ratio between general election turnout and by-election turnout larger and when is it smaller? Second, what is the trend in by-election turnout compared to general election turnout? We begin with the question of trends. Two facts are to be noted. First, by-election turnout is declining since the 1980s, just as general election turnout is declining (Figure 1). 5 During the 1960s, by-election turnout was, on average, 54%. General election turnout was 72% . By-election and general election turnout both increased through the 1970s and reached their highpoints in the 1980. By-election turnout averaged 61% in this decade, while general election turnout averaged 72%. Since then, both general election turnout and by-election turnout have declined dramatically. By-election turnout declined to 44% in the 1990s and just 35% in the current decade. Obviously, turnout is (almost) always lower in by-elections. That rule suffers from only two exceptions since 1963 and, once again, Newfoundland is the exception! By-election ...