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Pessimism looms large all over. COVID-19 has been projected as worse than the Great Depression of 1930. Everyday analyst and agency reports are diving into new bottoms of a fall-down in economic activities. Indian economy, however, has a slightly different story to tell at this hour of crisis. The silver lining for the Indian economy comes from a s...
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The air is full of pessimism. The impact of Covid-19 has been anticipated as more awful than the Great Depression of 1930. Consistently analysts and agency reports are plunging into new bottoms of a tumbledown in economic activities. Indian economy, however, has a somewhat slightly different story to tell at this hour of crisis. The silver lining f...
Citations
... Beyond the immediate health crisis, the pandemic severely impacted India's economy, with sectors like MSMEs, agriculture, transport, tourism, and employment particularly hard hit (Barbate et al. 2021). Accounting these challenges requires integrating traditional public health measures such as mask-wearing, social distancing, and hand hygiene (Tirkolaee et al. 2022) with advanced high-tech solutions. ...
The rapid worldwide transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has elevated substantial public health worries, particularly during India's disastrous second wave of COVID-19. Masses witnessed health challenges, loss of life, and mental woe as the country grappled with SARS-CoV-2 infections. Moreover, the advent of highly transmissible variants such as Delta, Omicron, and subvariant JN.1 created massive pressure on the government, medical professionals, and research teams. In addition to the overwhelming health crisis, India faced severe economic deprivation due to extended lockdowns, workforce shortages, market closures, and disruptions in transportation. To alleviate the economy and abate future viral outbreaks, it is indispensable to understand the structure, classification, transmission, and variants of SARS-CoV-2. The pandemic’s impact on India’s economy highlights the need for rapid technological adaptation. Innovations like contactless tracing systems, sensor-based devices, medical robots, automated dispensers, speech recognition technologies, advanced sequencing, and artificial intelligence can play a key role in controlling the spread of COVID-19 and future viral threats. Therefore, this review provides a comprehensive analysis of the origins, classification, and mechanisms of Coronavirus infections, explores the effects of the pandemic on India’s economy, and suggests cutting-edge technological measures for managing future outbreaks effectively.
... There was a financial crisis among many families as many people lost their jobs or businesses were running at losses. creating a survival crisis (Barbate, 2021;Lee et al., 2020;Singh et al., 2020;). Furthermore, there was stress related to health and continuity of life (Althiabi, 2021; Kumar & Nayyar, 2020;Sherman et al., 2020;Yilmaz, 2021). ...
The COVID-19 pandemic stretched between 2020 and 2021 and witnessed impactful changes in the education system inclusive of the special education sector. The special education sector selected online teaching–learning to continue the studies of their students with the help of the parents. The study aimed to find out the challenges faced by parents of people with autism enrolled in special schools who attended online classes along with their children and supported their teaching–learning. The mixed method study (sequential explanatory design) opted for quantitative phases followed by a qualitative phase for further in-depth exploration of the focus area. The quantitative phase consists of 100 participant parents and the qualitative phase consists of 15 participant parents recruited from phase one of the study through purposive sampling based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The data were collected via web forms and online interviews were recorded. The univariate analysis was used for the quantitative phase whereas thematic analysis was used for the qualitative phase. The parents had to manage office work, childcare, assisting in online classes, handling the psychological and behavioral issues of the child. Even challenges like learning new technology, managing additional expenses and personal stress were reported. The enormous efforts of the parents helped to overcome many of the challenges and achieve positive learning outcomes. Nevertheless, some recommendations like arrangement of parental workshops, increase in tech education and occasional hybrid mode of learning is suggested.
... Many forecasting techniques have failed because of several reasons. For instance, Barbate et al. (2021) projected that unemployment rate and inflation for the year 2024-2025 will hover between 12.13% to 18.13% and 8%-14% respectively due to COVID-19 and these projections depends upon the rate of COVID-19 recovery. The failure of these predictions is primarily because of more vivid speculations and implementation of certain theoretical assumptions. ...
... Moreover, it's too early to conclude the impact of the pandemic, the government's role become decisive and effective implementation of the policies are crucial given the severity of the pandemic. Barbate, Gade and Raibagkar (2021) studied the probable short term and the long-term effect of Covid-19 on the Indian economy by adopting a decision-tree 2 approach for the predictions. Major economic variables are projected to decline sharply during 2020-21 including GDP growth, base lending rate and industrial production index. ...
The Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in a global catastrophe in a shockingly short period of time, that severely affected the lives and livelihoods of the people. The health crisis metamorphosed into an economic crisis with contraction in global demand and supply of the commodities. The global health crisis has critical impact on India’s health and economy as well. Stringent lockdowns were placed throughout India to contain the Corona virus as a crucial policy response. Resultantly, economic activities almost came to a halt. Since workplaces and manufacturing processes temporarily stopped, the production of goods and services decreased. Supply chains got hugely disturbed. This gave rise to a fall in the aggregate effective demand. These disturbances to the real economy cascaded over to external and financial sectors as well. In this backdrop, this study is an analysis of the economic impact of the pandemic on the Indian economy. The research is grounded on the state-of-the-art augmented gravity model applying the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique to capture empirically, the economic outcome of the pandemic on the Indian economy. This study has applied bilateral monthly exports as response variable and number of Corona positive cases & deaths and Free Trade Agreement (FTA) partnership dummies as explanatory variables. The study has used the price indices as an alternative measure for Multilateral Trade Resistance (MTR) which explains the supply and demand impacts of the pandemic on bilateral exports. The findings of this study show that there is a drastic decline in India’s exports, GDP, and employment among others because of the global health crisis. The results are significant and have evident policy implications. The study recommends increasing public expenditure to restore and increase production capacities, employment opportunities, and invest in physical infrastructure.
JEL Classification Codes: F10, F13, F14, I10
Keywords: Covid-19; Pandemic; Exports; Gravity Model; PPML; Multilateral Trade Resistance (MTR)
... These four currencies and the corresponding exchange rates are hereafter abbreviated as USD, GBP, EUR, and YEN, respectively. Apropos to this discussion, refer to the paper by Barbate et al. (2021) who studied the macroeconomic indicators of the Indian economy and established that the COVID-19 pandemic had made a negative impact on GDP growth, production index, and a fall in interest rate while making a massive surge in unemployment and inflation. More notably, during the pandemic, the exchange rate of INR to USD reached its record low of Rs. 76.81 on 22 April 2020, with an year-to-date depreciation of 7.62%. ...
In this work, we develop a methodology to detect structural breaks in multivariate time series data using the t-distributed stochastic neighbour embedding (t-SNE) technique and non-parametric spectral density estimates. By applying the proposed algorithm to the exchange rates of Indian rupee against four primary currencies, we establish that the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) has indeed caused a structural break in the volatility dynamics. Next, to study the effect of the pandemic on the Indian currency market, we provide a compact and efficient way of combining three models, each with a specific objective, to explain and forecast the exchange rate volatility. We find that a forward-looking regime change makes a drop in persistence, while an exogenous shock like COVID-19 makes the market highly persistent. Our analysis shows that although all exchange rates are found to be exposed to common structural breaks, the degrees of impact vary across the four series. Finally, we develop an ensemble approach to combine predictions from multiple models in the context of volatility forecasting. Using model confidence set procedure, we show that the proposed approach improves the accuracy from benchmark models. Relevant economic explanations to our findings are provided as well.
... In the future, the unemployment rate in India is predicted to double from the present situation, as forecasted by (Barbate et al., 2021;Lai et al., 2021). ...
The recent outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic affected the global economy and intensified the unemployment crisis. India is the second most populated country in the world and one of the fastest developing countries. It has a severe unemployment crisis due to the economic burden on Indian businesses in the background of the declining economic situation caused by this pandemic situation. This article examines the effect of COVID-19 on the unemployment situation in India and will provide significant views of the effect on the unemployment rate with some suggestions for policy makers to make their policies to overcome this intense circumstance.
... Impact of COVID-19 on base rate mobility in Northeast India vis-à-vis national average Source : Google Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports. 2 and economic activity ( figure 2 ) suggest that Northeast India has suffered from harsh economic contractions as a result of COVID-19 lockdown measures( Dev and Sengupta 2020 ;Ravi 2020 ;Barbate, Gade, and Raibagkar 2021 ;Beyer, Franco-Bedoya, and Galdo 2021 ;Kesar et al. 2021 ). ...
Emerging research has suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic has generally favored rebel organizations—rather than states—in situations of intrastate conflict. This article challenges this perspective by analyzing the pandemic's impact on three dimensions of rebel activity—armed activity, popular support and recruitment, and rebel governance. It does so by using illustrative evidence from long-running insurgencies in Northeast India, characterized by long-term rebel weakness and minimal, if any, territorial control. The article finds that during the early, acute phase of the pandemic in 2020, state-imposed lockdowns, rebels’ own restrictions, and disruptions to supply chains constrained most dimensions of rebel activity. The easing of restrictions in 2021 revealed complex and multidimensional impacts on different armed groups, which often hinged on pre-existing positions such as armed group strength, strategy, relations with the state, and operational circumstances. These experiences of low-level insurgencies lacking territorial control add important qualifiers to the notion that rebels are inherently best placed to capitalize on stochastic shocks such as pandemics. Beyond the case of Northeast India, these findings make a number of contributions to the analysis of counterinsurgency and rebel governance.
... During the COVID-19 pandemic, investors behave differently under the pressure of financial crises (Barbate et al., 2021) and confirmed cases (Krishna, 2021). Ortmann et al. (2020) argue that investors increase their trading activities to sell off securities, and this uniform behaviour contributes to herding in a pandemic. ...
... Herding is often detected in global stock markets (Loang & Ahmad, 2022). Wu et al. (2020) show that herding exists in Chinese A and B markets, and similar evidence is documented in India (Barbate et al., 2021), Australia (Espinosa-Méndez & Arias, 2020), Saudi Arabia (Gabbori et al., 2021), and so on. Herding is also observed to be associated with the emergence of an economic crisis. ...
... The interconnectivity of tourism also increased sectoral dependency on economic and financial services that promoted many businesses outside its core. The tourism industry has been subject to detrimental effects of the COVID-19 pandemic (Barbate et al., 2021;Pandey et al., 2021) as most countries instituted disease containment policies such as short-and long-term bans on international travel, complete border closers and in-country lockdowns to control the transmission of the virus. Unfortunately, the tourism sector has been the most adversely impacted, taking an unprecedented brunt of the pandemic with the closure of several businesses within the industry and externally connected industries (Pandey et al., 2021). ...
... India and China, the largest developing economies, were impacted more severely than other large developed nations. Barbate et al. (2021) and Pandey et al. (2021) noted the significant adverse impact of the pandemic on the Indian economy, while Kanupriya (2021) noted that other than the tourism sector, the Indian textile sector (second to agriculture) has been one of the worst hit other than the tourism with job losses and disruptions to livelihoods. In their study on the COVID-19 impact on tourism sectors in Zhejiang, Fujian and Shandong provinces in China, Shang et al. (2022) observed that lower growth and recessions translated into a significant decline in green investments. ...
This paper presents a qualitative comparative assessment of the Australian and New Zealand tourism industry performance following the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis focuses on a qualitative evaluation of achievements in several key tourism aggregates from 2020 to 2021 and compares them with industry achievements in 2019. The assessment reveals that following the COVID-19 pandemic, by 2020, the shares of tourism output and export earnings plunged to 6.0 and 1.6 percent, respectively, in Australia. In New Zealand, tourism output and earnings contracted to 8.8 and 9.4 percent, respectively. The overall economic contractions in both countries were more severe in 2020-2021 than in 2019. It is anticipated that the contribution of tourism to national output, employment, export earnings, and hotel occupancy rates will continue to remain subdued in 2022, with the likelihood of some degree of recovery in late 2022, assuming rapid progress in vaccinations against the COVID-19 disease. This study makes a new contribution to the tourism literature, as the assessment presented here provides a comparative, distinctive analysis of the pandemic's effects on the local economic contexts of two neighboring, similar economies of Australia and New Zealand. Research has been lacking in providing this type of analysis, despite the numerous studies addressing the effects of the pandemic across the global tourism industry.
... Based on the findings, recommendations are proposed to overcome these adverse situations. Barbate et al. (2021) have written that a number of research agencies, financial institutions and experts have provided India's GDP growth rate forecast for 2020-2021. Correction of these forecasts: All these forecasts have been corrected using weights of 3 for April 2020 reports, 2 for March 2020 reports and 1 for February 2020 reports and earlier periods as shown in Table 3. ...
This edited book includes the chapters on Impact of Covid 19 On Commerce and Economics
