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Immigration routes into the EU by land and sea
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... Numerous programs, strategies, normative documents and frequent debates on the issue of increased migration processes in the European Union indicate the seriousness of the problem. The timeliness of the topic suggests that the real effects of immigration in the European Union and the development of new methods and tools to deal with the negative aspects of this process are yet to be clarified" [12]. The current COVID-19 pandemic highlights the importance of strong agencies for managing and mitigating "nontraditional" threats to security in the countries on the all world, as they manifest themselves both of the every countries, and globally. ...
The correlation between migration chaos, national security and the COVID-19 pandemic
is particularly relevant given the huge waves of migration to European Union countries
before the pandemic, the reverse migration during the pandemic and the national security
protection of European countries, at the same time in the ability to control migration flows
and assimilate the core values of the host countries, as migration exchange is a generator
of terrorist or criminal transnational threats. Especially in the last few years, when Europe
was flooded by giant waves of immigrants, which on the one hand created a serious
problem in clarifying their identity and origin, and on the other hand caused significant
changes in the socio-economic life of EU member states. This has led to the emergence
and consideration of a number of issues related to the adoption of emergency measures
for the distribution, accommodation and administration of migration and refugee flows
by the central executive authorities of the Member States of the European Union. On the
other hand, it provoked the formation of a policy focused on medium- and long-term
conceptual planning and restructuring of public attitudes, applied concepts, developed
strategies and implemented specific measures to address mass migration movements by
creating opportunities for integration and inclusion of immigrants in social the economic
and social life of the host country. While in 2020, as a result of the pandemic of COVID19, there was a wave of reverse migration, which in turn caused social and economic
consequences and problems in the individual administrative-territorial units of a number
of countries, including the Republic of Bulgaria. This process has necessitated the study
of local communities, as well as the planning and implementation of various mechanisms
to address the problems that arose during the pandemic. The process of integration of
immigrants has different dimensions, which are related on the one hand to their inclusion
in the community, and on the other hand to their employment. This report will pay
attention to the reverse migration on the territory of the Republic of Bulgaria and will pay
significant attention to certain economic and social features in the formation and planning
of policies and measures to address the pandemic of COVID-19 and the protection of
national security of the country in the context of the economic and demographic aspect.
Torrential floods are hydrological natural hazards by nature of their occurrence, but with a high scale of severe damages to the facilities and infrastructure and a high number of casualties in human populated environment, they can become a natural disaster. In addition, they cause more or less significant environmental changes, such as geomorphological damages to river banks and river channels. In enhancing the existing capabilities of flash flood risk management for meso- and small-scale basins, building a hydrological model for a specific watershed is of great significance. In this paper, a hydrological model is created using the Shetran hydrological software for the upper part of the Toplica River basin located on the eastern slopes of Mount Kopaonik in Southern Serbia. The watershed model is based on extreme rainfall events and involves a large dataset of natural characteristics (relief, geological terrain, soil, vegetation and microclimate) and land use factor in the calculation of torrential flood occurrence. Shetran is used to enable the transformation of rainfall in the runoff with the aim of getting simulated flood hydrographs that correspond with the registered hydrographs as much as possible. Model-sensitive parameters are determined and subsequently calibrated and validated. The average coefficient of determination for the watershed model of the Toplica River/ profile Magovo when registered and modelled hourly discharges are compared reaches 0.87, showing a good precision so that it can be useful in torrential flood forecasting.
In the present study, 43 watersheds in Serbia and Bulgaria are taken for the morphometric analysis using digital elevation model in the environment of geographical information system. Statistical analysis, including correlation, regression and factor analysis is conducted with the following results and conclusions: (1) as evidenced in the correlation matrix, there is a high correlation between maximal discharges and watershed area, primarily and watershed length, secondarily; (2) the high correlation is found between independent variables watershed area and watershed length, as well as Melton index and relief ratio; (3) the multiple linear regression model encompassing all seven independent variables is obtained with R squared of 70,99, indicating that the model as fitted to that extent explains the variability in maximal discharge, and adjusted R squared of 0,65. An additional multiple regression analysis is done excluding the watershed area, due to a high starting impact on the dependent variable. In this case, a multiple regression linear model is obtained with R squared=60,116 and adjusted R squared=0,535, leading to the conclusion that the excluded parameter has a high influence which is also confirmed by the results in correlation matrix; (4) according to the rotated component matrix in principal component analysis, first component is mostly influenced by the relief ratio, Melton index and watershed length, while the second component is determined by parameters of relief characteristics, slope >25ᵒ and watershed relief. Having regard to the results of correlation and factor analyses the watersheds are prioritized on the basis of the morphometric parameters with a purpose to indicate the watersheds with the high priority for implementation of measures reducing the flood risks. Though morphometric study itself is not sufficient to explain extensively the occurrence of maximal discharges in the events of demolishing torrential floods, morphometric analysis may meaningfully contribute to the flood risk assessment.
