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Exchange rate fluctuations have a significant impact on the economic growth of a country. The depreciation of national currency stimulates the economic growth of a particular country; however the overvaluation destroys it. In the end of 2014 Armenian dram devaluated by 16.6% against U.S. dollar. The devaluation of national currency resulted in a hu...

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... increase in gross external debt increases the average monthly exchange rate, on average by 0.00836 AMD, everything else held constant. Figure 1 presents the actual time series data in comparison with the predicted data. This graphical illustration shows how the model can further predict the exchange rate given the expected macroeconomic factors included in the model. ...