Figure - uploaded by Frans N. Stokman
Content may be subject to copyright.
Source publication
This research note presents analyses of the upcoming UNFCCC negotiations in Paris (November 30th to December 11th, 2015). We aim to contribute to an effective agreement in Paris by sharpening negotiators’ expectations concerning the likely developments and obstacles to reaching an agreement, as well as to demonstrate the application of the Exchange...
Citations
... Sin embargo, desde el evento de Cancún, la adaptación ha tomado relevancia y se esperaba de la COP21 que proporcionara elementos claves para la implementación de medidas concretas (Kallbekken S. andSaelen H. 2015, y Stokman F. N. andThomson R. 2015). ...
Desde el 1992, la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático (CMNUCC)
(ONU, 1992) señala la adaptación como una de las medidas para mitigar los efectos adversos del cambio
climático y, por mandato de su artículo 4 inciso E, incentiva a los países firmantes llevar a cabo diversas
acciones para facilitar su adaptación adecuada. Al adoptarse el Acuerdo de París (CMNUCC, 2015) por
195 países el pasado 12 de diciembre de 2015, durante la Conferencia de las Partes 21 (COP21), y ser
firmado por 175 de ellos el 22 de abril de 2016, se reconoció de manera consensuada la alta importancia y
urgencia de implementar medidas de adaptación, particularmente en los países más vulnerables. A través
del artículo 7 del Acuerdo de París, se detallan los compromisos establecidos al respecto.
En dicho evento, México reafirmó su compromiso de actuar ante el cambio climático. Sin embargo,
se ha de reconocer que la traducción de su voluntad hacia la implementación de acciones de adaptación
es limitada. Es particularmente el caso en las zonas costeras, donde se ha privilegiado el desarrollo
de las actividades económicas a costa de una planeación territorial adecuada.
Este capítulo analiza en primer lugar la importancia acordada a la adaptación en el Acuerdo de
París, y en segundo lugar, la Política Nacional de Adaptación desarrollada en México. Finalmente, se
estudia el caso de la adaptación al cambio climático en las zonas costeras mexicanas, consideradas las
más frágiles y dinámicas regiones del territorio nacional.
... Second, two different sets of predictions were undertaken on comparable issues, namely with the DECIDE model (Stokman and Thomson 2015) and the Predictioneer's Game. In this report, we document the forecasts on 11 issues undertaken with the Predictioneer's Game (Bueno de Mesquita 2009, Bueno de Mesquita 2011) with input data based on expert knowledge. ...
An international agreement at Paris in the end of 2015 or (shortly) thereafter may indeed be feasible, yet some issues are predicted to take considerably longer than the end of 2015. More specifically, our forecasts suggest:
• The general principle of CBDR will prevail.
• Compared to the Kyoto Protocol, a weakened compliance system will be agreed upon.
• A legally binding agreement on mitigation is likely to come forward, yet country-specific mitigations targets are likely not to be legally binding.
• More than a collective non-binding commitment to adaptation is likely to come forward plus a strengthening of present institutions for adaptation.
• Financial commitments will be upgraded beyond $ 100b p.a. after 2020, and emerging economies will be urged to contribute.
• Loss & damage will likely take much longer to negotiate than the end of 2015, and some separate agreement with new institutional arrangements is likely.
• The “no backsliding” principle will be applied to future negotiations on mitigation ambitions.
• The Ex-Ante Assessments will concentrate on aggregate ambitions, but not a full assessment of individual ambitions.
In the European Union, a complex system of policies ensures the path to sustainable fishing. The latest update of the Common Fisheries
Policy took place in 2014 and includes the change from the prohibition of bringing bycatches ashore to the obligation of landing
them. Policies are meant to transform and re-shape practices on the ground in order to ensure sustainable fishing. In order to change
politically rather rigid practices, the fishers’ awareness of new regulations is indispensable. Therefore, accessing both the way the fishers
were informed and the success of the political communication process is considered vital for evaluating the applicability of fisheries
policy. A methodology triangulation with primary and secondary data is used for investigating this issue. Data is provided by the EU
as the responsible actor for the communication of the reform. Also, standardized interviews with fisher, conducted by scientists in the
MINOUW project, provided the data which illustrate that relevant information did not reach the stakeholder group properly
