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No one can underestimate the importance of crude oil in the modern world today. It is considered the key foundation of the world's first trillion-dollar industry and the principal item in the balance of payments and exchanges between nations. To truly appreciate the significance of this precious commodity, just imagine the day when all of the world...
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... this study, all the OPEC producing countries including OPEC total production were modeled using the multicyclic model 7,14 . The summary of results for each OPEC country as well as for total OPEC production is manifested in Table 1. The models of each OPEC country are shown in Figs. 1 through 11. In general, our proposed models seem to accurately match the actual historical oil production of each OPEC country. This study shows that most of OPEC countries will peak between 2020 and 2030 and OPEC will remain the main world supplier of crude oil up to the end of this century. Furthermore, this investigation indicates that some ...
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... each OPEC country. This study shows that most of OPEC countries will peak between 2020 and 2030 and OPEC will remain the main world supplier of crude oil up to the end of this century. Furthermore, this investigation indicates that some OPEC countries, such as Iraq (Fig. 4), Kuwait (Fig. 5), Saudi Arabia ( Fig. 9), U.A.E. (Fig. 10), and Venezuela (Fig. 11) show a promising future of oil production ...
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... crude oil production will peak at about 90 MMSTB/D in 2025. The production is expected to decline to 20 MMSTB/D by 2050, at an average decline rate of 0.4 MMSTB/D/year. At that time, the production will come from a few OPEC countries, mainly Iran (Fig. 3), Iraq (Fig. 4), Kuwait (Fig. 5), Saudi Arabia ( Fig. 9), U.A.E. (Fig. 10), and Venezuela (Fig. 11). This indicates that OPEC will loose several members when some exporters like Indonesia (Fig. 2) will soon become importers. OPEC has remaining reserves of 1.035 trillion barrels which is 77% of the world's remaining ...
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32 | A c a d e m i c J o u r n a l o f C u r r e n t P r a c t i c e i n B u s i n e s s a n d M a n a g e m e n t | https://topjournals.org/index.php/AJCPBM Abstract : The global energy crisis, driven by natural and manmade factors, has profound implications for socioeconomic development. Notable historical instances, such as the 1973 Oil Crisis triggered by the OPEC embargo, and more recent events like the Russia-Ukraine war, highlight the fragility of energy supply systems. These crises have disrupted global oil and gas supplies, causing severe consequences for enterprises, particularly Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), which are vital to local economies. This study investigates the impact of the energy crisis on MSMEs in Kaduna, Nigeria, during the pre-subsidy removal era (2015-2022), focusing on how fuel scarcity and rising energy costs hinder their operations and profitability. Anchored in the Resource-Based Theory (RBT), the study explores how energy, as a critical resource, affects MSME performance and sustainability. An interpretivist methodology that employs qualitative approaches, incorporating both primary and secondary data, alongside content analysis. The findings reveal that energy crises, exacerbated by global disruptions and domestic inefficiencies, significantly hinder MSME operations in Kaduna. Key effects include increased costs of goods and services, reduced profitability, and the collapse of several enterprises. The study further highlights how fuel scarcity and high energy costs directly undermine socioeconomic development in Kaduna and Nigeria at large. The research concludes that addressing energy crises requires immediate and strategic interventions. Recommendations include establishing a multi-sectoral taskforce to monitor petroleum product distribution, reviving and scaling up refinery operations, issuing modular refinery licenses, and increasing investment in renewable energy. Additionally, tailored support such as toolkits for MSMEs can help mitigate the adverse impacts of energy crises. This study contributes to knowledge by providing a nuanced understanding of the interplay between energy crises and MSME performance, offering practical solutions for policymakers and stakeholders to foster resilience and sustainable development. 33 | A c a d e m i c J o u r n a l o f C u r r e n t P r a c t i c e i n B u s i n e s s a n d M a n a g e m e n t | https://topjournals.org/index.php/AJCPBM Introduction Energy has been fundamental to human survival and economic development since the dawn of civilization. Initially harnessed from natural sources like the sun, wood, and water, energy usage has evolved into a combination of renewable (e.g., solar, wind) and nonrenewable (e.g., oil, gas) sources. In modern economies, energy is indispensable, driving transportation, communication, industrial processes, healthcare, and education (Eleri, 1993). The availability of reliable and affordable energy is a cornerstone of industrialization and economic expansion, with energy consumption serving as a key indicator of national development (Borok et al., 2013). At the global level, energy is the "lifeblood" of economic globalization and market liberalization. For instance, the 1990s witnessed significant economic growth in emerging economies, driven by energy accessibility and sustainability (Chukwueyem et al., 2015). Conversely, inadequate access to affordable and environmentally friendly energy leads to poverty, deprivation, and economic stagnation (Oyedepo, 2012). Over 80% of global primary energy consumption is derived from nonrenewable sources such as petroleum, coal, and natural gas (Awwad & Mohammed, 2007). These sources, while vital, are finite and susceptible to geopolitical and market disruptions. The global energy crisis, often stemming from natural or manmade events, has far-reaching implications. The 1973 Oil Crisis, triggered by the OPEC embargo on the United States and its allies during the Arab-Israeli War, marked the first major global energy disruption. Oil prices skyrocketed, doubling and then quadrupling, leading to structural economic challenges worldwide. Gasoline shortages, rationing, and price hikes were visible symptoms of this "first oil shock" (Sorkhabi, 2015). The crisis not only reshaped global energy policies but also highlighted the vulnerability of economies reliant on fossil fuels. On the African continent, energy remains a critical driver of socioeconomic development. Countries endowed with oil and gas resources, like Nigeria, play a pivotal role in meeting both regional and global energy demands. However, inadequate infrastructure, corruption, and political instability often limit these nations from fully harnessing their energy potential. The energy crises resulting from global disruptions, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, exacerbate existing challenges, disrupting supply chains and inflating energy costs. In West Africa, energy insecurity is a recurring issue, impacting economic growth and regional integration efforts. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has initiated energy cooperation projects to address these challenges. However, inconsistent energy supplies and overreliance on imported fossil fuels undermine such efforts. Within Nigeria, the largest oil producer in Africa, regional disparities in energy distribution and consumption reflect broader governance and infrastructure deficits. At the national level, Nigeria's reliance on crude oil for over 90% of its foreign exchange earnings underscores the country's vulnerability to global energy crises. The pre-subsidy removal era particularly (2015-2022) was marked by recurrent fuel scarcity, price hikes, and declining refinery output. These challenges were particularly acute at the state level, where the ripple effects of energy crises were felt most strongly. For example, in Kaduna State, energy shortages severely affected the operations of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), leading to increased costs of goods and services, reduced profits, and business closures.
Faja Petrolifera del Orinoco (F.P.O) is by far the largest known heavy and extra heavy oil accumulation worldwide, located at north of Orinoco river in Venezuela contains about 1300 MMMBN of OOIP and 297 MMMBN of recoverable reserves. Exploitation of FPO has been done until present mainly by cold production, reaching recovery factors, is best cases, of about 10% of OOIP. PDVSA in recent years has conducted studies of quantification and certification of reserves, based on recovery factors that consider EOR projects. In situ combustion, the older member of thermal oil recovery family, is a method with a high thermodynamic efficiency that has allowed reaching recovery factors over 50% in some fields, accomplishing technical and economical success. This work presents a state of the art of combustion process and a review of the reservoir characteristics and field performance of successful applications in Venezuela and the rest of the world. These data were used to establish an application window, without weighting the size or significance of the reservoirs. This window, combined with data from reservoir characterization for the first six blocks of the FPO Junin area, was used to visualize the most prospective areas for the application of the process using parameters of thickness and water saturation in a commercial reservoir characterization software, followed by a qualitative evaluation of pressure, viscosity, temperature and depth, calculating this way the volume of oil and associated areal space occupied. Results obtained define Junin Blocks 5 and 6, specifically in areas of Basal Sands and Oligocene as the ones with the most potential, therefore, detailed studies should be performed to assess the technical and economical feasibility of the process implementation in these areas.
Modern civilization as it is known to us heavily depends on hydrocarbon fluids and their byproducts. So far, the industrialized nations have completely presumed for granted an uninterruptable supply of cheap crude oil. Petroleum liquids are exhaustible resources; thus, a good forecasting scheme of oil supply will be crucial to all parties involved in the petroleum business such as oil companies, financial institutions, public policy planners and makers, and oil exporting and importing countries. Such a model will also help bring stability and security to the crude oil market. Over the years, accurate prediction of oil production was confronted by fluctuating ecological, economical, and political factors, which imposed many restrictions on its exploration, transportation, and supply and demand.
The objective of this paper is to illustrate the advantages of the multi-cyclic Hubbert model. We will demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for the cases where the production rate fluctuates with time. We will also illustrate the effects of new discoveries or additional reserves due to innovative technology on peak oil rate and time and show how the multi-cyclic model accommodates these changes. Furthermore, we will demonstrate the flexibility of the proposed model to history match any future fluctuation in the production data. Historical production data of 47 countries around the world are used to predict the peak oil. The production rates of the last four years (2006-2009) are used to validate the accuracy of the model.
No one can underestimate the importance of crude oil in the modern world today. It is considered the key foundation of the world's first trillion-dollar industry and the principal item in the balance of payments and exchanges between nations. To truly appreciate the significance of this precious commodity, just imagine the day when all of the world's transportation systems and factories cease to function when the world has consumed its last drop of oil. This brings us to the main and crucial question: How long will oil last?
Crude oil is the lifeblood of the 12 member-nations of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which produces 40% of the world's oil supply and holds three-quarters of the proven reserves. Reaching oil production peak can be alarming to OPEC members, where oil revenue is the main feeding stream of the gross national product (GNP).
Many researchers, in the past decades, tried to find an answer to this crucial and critical question. Unfortunately, crude oil supply forecasting is a challenging endeavor.
This paper presents our forecast for the OPEC countries supply of crude oil to years beyond 2050. We applied the "multi-cyclic Hubbert" approach that accurately models the oil-production history of OPEC countries, which are virtually most of the world's crude oil supplier.
The analysis indicates that the OPEC ultimate oil recovery is about 1.137 trillion barrels. Of this amount, about 0.9117 trillion barrels remain to be produced by the end of 2080, where the peak is expected to be in 2025 at the production rate of 90 million barrels per day. OPEC has 77% of the world's remaining reserves. Furthermore, most OPEC countries will peak between 2020 and 2030, and they will remain the world main supplier of crude oil for the next 200 years.
Due to its maturity, many fields of light-medium crude oil have entered a stage of declining production. This allows putting into perspective the crucial role that non-conventional hydrocarbon resources must meet in providing energy for the future, such as heavy oil, extra heavy oil. Enhanced recovery techniques to exploit these reservoirs are quite varied, including the polymers injection; it is to add polymers into the water injection of high molecular weight before being injected into the reservoir, thereby improving mobility ratio water - oil. This study examines the feasibility of applying the polymer injection process in mature reservoirs BAINF 60 and BAMED 78 of Interfield North Area, located in Bachaquero Zulia State, Venezuela; using the simulation software Polymer Flood Predictive Model (PPM™) is based predictive models. The methodology included the evaluation of field's worldwide parameters; initially making a state of the art of the process, generating a set of application criteria; the simulation of these parameters defined the injection and production in the area. This study analyzed the parameters of viscosity, ° API, sand thickness, porosity, permeability, temperature and depth. Among the most important results obtained is that for the BAINF 60, applies the polymer injection process to an injection rate of 120 bbl / day, with a well spacing of 700 feet, a polymer concentration of 1800 ppm and solution viscosity of 32 cps, giving a recovery factor of 56%, 19% increase respect for the original. In the BAMED 78 case, this is limited by the high viscosity oil has, recommended by studying the application of any process mentioned area.
The year 2008 has witnessed unprecedented fluctuations in the oil prices. During the first three-quarters, the oil price abruptly increased to 50/bbl by the end of the year losing more than 64% of the maximum price in less than three months period. The supply of crude oil to the international market oscillated to follow suite according to the law of supply and demand. This behavior affected oil production in all exporting countries. Nonetheless, the demand for crude oil in some developing countries, such as China and India, has increased in the past few years because of the rapid growth in the transportation sector in addition to the absence of viable economic alternatives for fossil fuel. The rapid growth in fuel demand has forced the policy makers worldwide to include uninterrupted crude oil supply as a vital priority in their economic and strategic planning.
