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(a) Model agreement (%) on the sign of the change in CWPE frequency between individual models and the multimodel median (note that 50% indicates full disagreement among models). (b, e, h, and k) Scatter plots of regionally averaged frequency changes between wind extremes (x‐axis) and precipitation extremes (y‐axis) for individual ensemble members of each model (small symbols) and corresponding ensemble mean (large symbols). The color indicates the regionally averaged frequency changes in CWPEs, with the models featuring the lowest and highest CWPE changes being circled. Ensemble mean of projected changes of CWPE frequency associated with the model featuring the (c, f, i, and l) lowest and (d, g, j, and m) highest ensemble mean changes are shown for four selected IPCC regions, including (b–d) Central Europe, (e–g) East Asia, (h–j) East North America, and (k–m) Southeastern South America. Results are shown based on the SSP245 scenario.
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Compound wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs) can severely impact natural and socioeconomic systems. However, our understanding of CWPE future changes, drivers, and uncertainties under a warmer climate is limited. Here, by analyzing the event both on oceans and landmasses via state‐of‐the‐art climate model simulations, we reveal a poleward shift...
Citations
... In the future, CPWEs are expected to increase. The most significant growth is projected in mid-and high-latitude regions [21,69], along coastal areas in North America, as well as in South and East Asia [20]. Nevertheless, the global increase in CPWEs is expected to be greater over the ocean than over land, where the projected increase in the recurrence of these compound extremes is not statistically significant [69]. ...
... The future increase in CPWEs is primarily linked to climate change, rising evaporation, more intense precipitation, and changes in tropical and extratropical cyclone trajectories [1,21]. For instance, it is projected that mid-latitude cyclones in Great Britain and Ireland will cause CPWEs 3.6 times more frequently, primarily driven by increasing precipitation intensity [70]. ...
Compound wind and precipitation extremes (CPWEs) pose significant threats to infrastructure, economies, the environment, and human lives. In this study, the recurrence, spatial distribution, intensity, and synoptic conditions leading to the formation of CPWEs were assessed in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region. Using ERA5 reanalysis data, CPWEs were identified when both daily precipitation and maximum wind speed exceeded the 98th percentile thresholds on the same day at the same grid cell. Due to the proximity of the Baltic Sea and the influence of terrain, CPWEs were most frequent on the windward slopes of highlands in the western part of the investigation area. The most severe CPWEs occurred in the second half of summer and early September. Based on data from the Hess–Brezowsky synoptic classification catalogue and various synoptic datasets, the formation of CPWEs during the cold season (October–March) is associated with intense zonal (westerly) flow, while during the warm season (April–September), it is linked to the activity of southern-type cyclones. The number of CPWEs increased across all seasons, with the largest changes observed during the summer. However, the majority of changes are insignificant according to the Mann–Kendall test.
... Furthermore, clustered ETC are associated with a jet stream anomaly focussed on GB (Dacre and Pinto 2020;Pinto et al. 2014;Priestley et al. 2017). And, like flow regimes globally, these relationships are likely to change with the climate (e.g., Jiménez Cisnero and Oki 2014;Li et al. 2024). We therefore advocate a process-orientated approach to co-occurring hazards (e.g., , highlight that the 'recipe' of driving large-scale conditions (e.g., jet stream state) for such a 'perfect storm' (e.g., Hillier et al. 2023) will vary by country (Gonçalves, Nieto, and Liberato 2023;Raveh-Rubin 2015;Röthlisberger, Pfahl, and Martius 2016), and advocate the application of our novel methods in other regions. ...
Insurers and risk managers for critical infrastructure such as transport or power networks typically do not account for flooding and extreme winds happening at the same time in their quantitative risk assessments. We explore this potentially critical underestimation of risk from these co‐occurring hazards through studying events using the regional 12 km resolution UK Climate Projections for a 1981–1999 baseline and projections of 2061–2079 (RCP8.5). We create a new wintertime (October–March) set of 3427 wind events to match an existing set of fluvial flow extremes and design innovative multi‐event episodes (Δt of 1–180 days long) that reflect how periods of adverse weather affect society (e.g., through damage). We show that the probability of co‐occurring wind‐flow episodes in Great Britain (GB) is underestimated 2–4 times if events are assumed independent. Significantly, this underestimation is greater both as severity increases and episode length reduces, highlighting the importance of considering risk from closely consecutive storms (Δt ~ 3 days) and the most severe storms. In the future (2061–2079), joint wind‐flow extremes are twice as likely as during 1981–1999. Statistical modelling demonstrates that changes may significantly exceed thermodynamic expectations of higher river flows in a wetter future climate. The largest co‐occurrence increases happen in mid‐winter (DJF) with changes in the North Atlantic jet stream an important driver; we find the jet is strengthened and squeezed into a southward‐shifted latitude window (45°–50° N) giving typical future conditions that match instances of high flows and joint extremes impacting GB today. This strongly implies that the large‐scale driving conditions (e.g., jet stream state) for a multi‐impact ‘perfect storm’ will vary by country; understanding regional drivers of weather hazards over climate timescales is vital to inform risk mitigation and planning (e.g., diversification and mutual aid across Europe).
Compound extreme weather events are frequent and exhibit new features in the context of global change. This study unravels the characteristics, variations, and driving factors of compound extreme temperature‐extreme dust events in the Gobi Desert (GD) during the springs of 2000–2023. The temperature in the GD is high before extreme dust events (EDEs), while that is low during EDEs. Correspondingly, extreme hot events (EHEs) occur prior to EDEs and extreme cold events (ECEs) occur during EDEs. The frequency of EHEs associated with EDEs in 2012–2023 is 100% higher than that in 2000–2011, while the frequency of ECEs associated with EDEs in 2012–2023 is 75% lower than that in 2000–2011. Accordingly, compound extreme events associated with EDEs shift from EDE‐ECEs to EHE‐EDEs. By strengthening East Asian anomalous high pressure, enhanced Arctic Oscillation during the pre‐EDE periods and weakened Eurasian teleconnection during EDEs increases EHEs and decreases ECEs, respectively, and combined drive the shift in the compound extreme events. This study reveals a new feature of compound extreme weather events in the context of climate change, which manifests as the shift from EDE‐ECEs to EHE‐EDEs in the GD. The occurrence of more EHE‐EDEs will put already fragile ecosystems of the GD at even greater risk. Therefore, the containment of global warming, especially in arid and semiarid regions, is necessary and urgent.
Observational evidence has shown that Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes (CWPEs) can cause substantial disruptions to natural and economic systems under climate change. This study conducts a historical assessment and future projection of CWPEs characteristics in the climate vulnerable region of Southeast Asia (SEA) based on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Results reveal that the northern Philippines, the eastern and northwestern coastal areas of the Indochina Peninsula have experienced the most frequent, strongest CWPEs during the period of 1985–2014. SEA is projected to experience a frequency increase of 14.4% (22.5%) and intensity increase of 9.4% (19.5%) under the SSP2‐4.5 (SSP5‐8.5) scenario at the end of 21st century (2070–2099). Kalimantan appears to replace the Philippines as the most affected area, particularly under high emission scenario. In addition, the changes in CWPEs are primarily driven by the changes in precipitation, with the average contribution of precipitation changes across the whole region is 62.8% (70.4%) under the SSP2‐4.5 (SSP5‐8.5) scenario. For precipitation uncertainties, the contribution from model uncertainty decreases over time (from 73.9% to 42.7%), while scenario uncertainty increases (from 20.3% to 55.0%). In contrast, for wind projections, model uncertainty remains the dominant factor (from 81.3% to 87.6%) with little change. The present study reveals the high sensitivity of the CWPEs over SEA under global warming and highlighting the risks of future disaster impact in such vulnerable regions.
Compound precipitation and wind-speed extreme events seriously threaten socio-economic and human health. In this study, we selected frequent precipitation and wind-speed extreme events in southeastern China as the study area and observed data from 47 meteorological stations from 1980 to 2020. Subsequently, based on 90, 95 and 99% thresholds, the frequency of precipitation and wind-speed extreme events was calculated, and the compound precipitation and wind-speed extreme magnitude index (CPWEMI) was constructed. The results showed distinct temporal variation phases in compound precipitation and wind-speed extreme events in the study area, with a decreasing trend from 1981 to 2010 and an increasing trend from 2011 to 2020. The frequency of compound precipitation and wind-speed extreme events during spring and summer was higher than those during autumn and winter and were closely related to precipitation concentration during spring and summer. Spatially, the region with the highest frequency of compound precipitation and wind-speed extreme events was located on the windward slope of Wuyi Mountain. The results deepen the understanding of the changing characteristics of compound climatic extremes in southeastern China under climate warming conditions.
