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(a) Many insects are showing a range of ecophysiological responses to longer‐term climatic changes. For example, the emperor dragonfly (Anax imperator) has shifted its distribution northward and to higher elevations in Europe since 2000 in response to warming (Platts et al., 2019). (b) In California and Mexico, the Quino Checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha quino) has responded to recent warming by moving to higher elevations, and by shifting from its preferred lowland food plant (a Plantago species) to Collinsia concolor, which is more abundant at higher elevations. Increased warming, however, still threatens this endangered subspecies (Parmesan et al., 2015). (c) Many recent insect declines, such as the now vulnerable yellow‐banded bumblebee (Bombus terricola), have been attributed to climate extremes, and especially hotter maximum temperatures during the summer (Martinet et al., 2015). (d) Exposure to heat waves can have significant effects on insect reproduction. Functional responses in the facultative hyperparasitoid, Gelis agilis, are strongly correlated with ambient temperature, and at high temperatures their ability to exploit hosts is greatly impaired (Chen, Gols, et al., 2019). Photograph of emperor dragonfly by Tim Bekaert; photograph of Quino Checkerspot butterfly by Andrew Fisher (USFWS volunteer biologist); photograph of yellow‐banded bumblebee by rob Foster (https://www.inaturalist.org/users/264273); photograph of Gelis agilis by Tibor Bukovinszky (NVWA Wageningen University & Research. Wageningen).
Source publication
Climate warming is considered to be among the most serious of anthropogenic stresses to the environment, because it not only has direct effects on biodiversity, but it also exacerbates the harmful effects of other human‐mediated threats. The associated consequences are potentially severe, particularly in terms of threats to species preservation, as...
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Citations
... Climate change is expected to lead to the redistribution of mosquito species on a global scale. While climate change is the cumulative effect of several environmental factors, changes in temperature have been demonstrated in numerous studies to be one of the most important factors constraining the distribution and abundance of ectothermic organisms [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] . For mosquitoes, and ectotherms more generally, the relationship between temperature and the performance of traits relevant for lifetime fitness is unimodal, where performance increases until the optimum temperature is reached, after which it starts to decline (reviewed in ref. 8). ...
The distribution and abundance of ectothermic mosquitoes are strongly affected by temperature, but mechanisms remain unexplored. We describe the effect of temperature on the transcriptome of Anopheles stephensi, an invasive vector of human malaria. Adult females were maintained across a range of mean temperatures (20 °C, 24 °C and 28 °C), with daily fluctuations of +5 °C and −4 °C at each mean temperature. Transcriptomes were described up to 19 days post-blood meal. Of the >3100 differentially expressed genes, we observed shared temporal expression profiles across all temperatures, suggesting their indispensability to mosquito life history. Tolerance to 20 and 28 ( + 5°C/−4°C) was associated with larger and more diverse transcriptomes compared to 24 ( + 5 °C/−4 °C). Finally, we identified two distinct trends in gene expression in response to blood meal ingestion, oxidative stress, and reproduction. Our work has implications for mosquitoes’ response to thermal variation, mosquito immune-physiology, mosquito-malaria interactions and the development of vector control tools.
... 13 For instance, higher temperatures have been shown to shorten the life cycle of insects, leading to multiple generations within a single growing season. 14,15 Additionally, rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns would create more favourable conditions for many insect species, resulting in the expansion of their geographical ranges. 15,16 However, extreme temperature increases may directly harm some insect species by exceeding their thermal tolerance limits, leading to physiological stress, reduced fecundity, and increased mortality. ...
... 14,15 Additionally, rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns would create more favourable conditions for many insect species, resulting in the expansion of their geographical ranges. 15,16 However, extreme temperature increases may directly harm some insect species by exceeding their thermal tolerance limits, leading to physiological stress, reduced fecundity, and increased mortality. 17,18 These negative effects could result in localized declines of certain pests, especially those adapted to cooler climates. ...
BACKGROUND
The cotton jassid, Amrasca biguttula, a dangerous and polyphagous pest, has recently invaded the Middle East, Africa and South America, raising concerns about the future of cotton and other food crops including okra, eggplant and potato. However, its potential distribution remains largely unknown, posing a challenge in developing effective phytosanitary strategies. We used an ensemble model of six machine‐learning algorithms including random forest, maxent, support vector machines, classification and regression tree, generalized linear model and boosted regression trees to forecast the potential distribution of A. biguttula in the present and future using presence records of the pest and bioclimatic predictors. The accuracy of these algorithms was assessed based on the area under the curve (AUC), correlation (COR), deviance and true skill statistic (TSS).
RESULTS
All algorithms showed good performance in forecasting the distribution of A. biguttula (AUC ≥ 0.91, COR ≥ 0.72, TSS ≥ 0.77 and deviance ≤ 0.65). Mean temperature of wettest quarter, mean temperature of driest quarter and precipitation of the wettest month were the key variables that contributed to predicting A. biguttula occurrence. Projection of the model showed that cotton production areas in Asia, sub‐Saharan Africa, and South America are at threat of invasion by A. biguttula under the current climatic scenario. Additionally, range expansion for A. biguttula is projected in the future in sub‐Saharan Africa, South America and China, indicating a suitable ecological niche for A. biguttula to thrive.
CONCLUSION
Our results provide early warning and decision‐making information that can guide efforts to prevent this pest's further spread and invasion into new areas. © 2025 Society of Chemical Industry.
... Higher temperatures can increase metabolic costs disproportionately, leading to thermal injuries, developmental failures, reduced fecundity, and ultimately decreased fitness and mortality. 56 Extreme heat can also impair dispersal capacity, hindering escape from unfavorable conditions. 56 The cumulative impact of these factors can result in population crashes for many insect species. ...
... 56 Extreme heat can also impair dispersal capacity, hindering escape from unfavorable conditions. 56 The cumulative impact of these factors can result in population crashes for many insect species. This underscores the complex and often detrimental effects of UHIs. ...
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... Despite this, movement of warm-tolerant genotypes among populations, especially within watersheds, is one potential mechanism to reduce vulnerability as stream temperatures continue to change over time, with NorWeST projections indicating at least 2°C shifts in average summer stream temperatures by 2080 (e.g., Figure 2c, Table S6). Additional work to measure the sublethal effects of warming on sensitivity could contribute to the growing body of evidence suggesting that exposure to heat well below CTmax can have detrimental impacts on organisms (Harvey et al. 2023;Shah et al. 2023;Li et al. 2013). Finally, further integration of these data would allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of spatial variation in vulnerability within species in response to shifting temperatures and changes in stream flow, for example, through the use of individual-based eco-evolutionary simulation models (e.g., Bay et al. 2017;Forester et al. 2023). ...
Identifying populations at highest risk from climate change is a critical component of conservation efforts. However, vulnerability assessments are usually applied at the species level, even though intraspecific variation in exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity play a crucial role in determining vulnerability. Genomic data can inform intraspecific vulnerability by identifying signatures of local adaptation that reflect population‐level variation in sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Here, we address the question of local adaptation to temperature and the genetic basis of thermal tolerance in two stream frogs ( Ascaphus truei and A. montanus ). Building on previous physiological and temperature data, we used whole‐genome resequencing of tadpoles from four sites spanning temperature gradients in each species to test for signatures of local adaptation. To support these analyses, we developed the first annotated reference genome for A. truei . We then expanded the geographic scope of our analysis using targeted capture at an additional 11 sites per species. We found evidence of local adaptation to temperature based on physiological and genomic data in A. montanus and genomic data in A. truei , suggesting similar levels of sensitivity (i.e., susceptibility) among populations regardless of stream temperature. However, invariant thermal tolerances across temperatures in A. truei suggest that populations occupying warmer streams may be most sensitive. We identified high levels of evolutionary potential in both species based on genomic and physiological data. While further integration of these data is needed to comprehensively evaluate spatial variation in vulnerability, this work illustrates the value of genomics in identifying spatial patterns of climate change vulnerability.
... Climate change operates across temporal and spatial dimensions, exerting diverse effects on insect pests and their natural enemies (Harvey et al. 2023). Multi-decadal warming and short-term extreme climatic events like heatwaves and droughts trigger different responses in insects and other arthropods (Harvey et al. 2020). ...
... Multi-decadal warming and short-term extreme climatic events like heatwaves and droughts trigger different responses in insects and other arthropods (Harvey et al. 2020). Long-term warming leads to gradual evolutionary responses such as range shifts and changes in the number of generations per year, while extreme climatic events prompt immediate responses in insects, often leading them to seek refuge in microhabitats during extreme conditions (Harvey et al. 2023). Extreme climatic events may temporarily benefit herbivorous insect pests by releasing them from the pressure of natural enemies sensitive to high temperatures (Agosta et al. 2018). ...
... In arid or hot tropical climates, insects seek cooler, moister microclimates during daylight, emerging at night to feed (González-Tokman et al. 2020). Recent increases in extreme climatic events frequency and intensity in North America and Eurasia expose many insects to novel conditions, challenging their thermal limits (Harvey et al. 2020(Harvey et al. , 2023. Many insects overwinter in a state of diapause, with adaptations like freeze-avoidance and freeze tolerance to survive harsh winter conditions (Bale et al. 2002). ...
... ' It is noteworthy that recent calls for achieving biodiversity and sustainability goals increasingly include personal action. 132 Deep and civil-society-driven actions may be one of the pillars in transformation. Godfray writes "History suggests that change in dietary behaviors in response to interventions is slow. ...
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... Although lack of knowledge of species' responses under predicted global warming scenarios may lead to significantly lower confidence in answering the CCA questions relative to the BRA questions (see Vilizzi et al. 2022a), insects are generally known to respond positively to warmer summer temperature conditions, especially when introduced from (native) areas characterised by a temperate climate (Harvey et al. 2023). In this study, this increased the confidence in responses to the questions pertaining to climate change, which was not significantly different from the confidence in responses to the questions relative to current climate conditions. ...
Increasing global trade in agricultural and horticultural products coupled with climate change are amongst the main drivers of the global spread of non-native insect species. This trend has substantial impacts on agroecosystems and economies in general. The aim of this study was to screen non-native insect species for their risk of invasiveness in Croatian agricultural lands under current and future climatic conditions. The invasion risk of 18 extant and eight horizon species was determined with a high level of confidence. Of the 26 species screened, 65.4% and 92.3% were ranked as high (or very high) risk under current and future climate conditions, respectively. The results of this study are expected to help policy makers to prioritise the management of both extant and horizon non-native insect species and to assist decision-makers in identifying candidate species for comprehensive, follow-up risk assessment. It is anticipated that the present findings will also contribute to the refinement of national legislation to control and regulate more effectively the spread of non-native insect species in Croatia also accounting for changing climatic conditions.
... Insects are the most widespread and diverse group of animal species across the biosphere and are particularly sensitive to climate change. This is due to their relatively rapid reproduction rates, ectothermic nature, disruption of their life cycles (e.g., breeding, reproduction, or hibernation) by temperature changes, and their sensitivity to extreme weather events (e.g., heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfalls) (Harvey et al., 2020;Skendžić et al., 2021;Harvey et al., 2023). This is also true for bark beetles. ...
A key issue in landscape management, whether public or private, is the mitigation of disturbance events that impact vegetation, ecosystem health, and thus ecosystem services (ESs). Although many studies have found significant tree mortality due to insect infestations, there is still insufficient understanding of how these infestations alter ESs and their associated economic values. Addressing this research gap can assist forest managers and decision-makers in refining and implementing adaptive management practices and policies, while enhancing the resilience of forests and their ESs. We investigated the impacts of bark beetle outbreaks on three ESs (timber provisioning, water retention, and carbon sequestration) in the Lake Tahoe region of Northern California and Northern Nevada. Using the landscape simulation model LANDIS-II, we examined differences between a business-as-usual management scenario and an enhanced management scenario with respect to the amount of aboveground tree biomass and ESs impacted by beetle outbreaks. Since insect infestation is also influenced by climate, each of the two management scenarios considered three different climate scenarios: a scenario with average historical climate (no climate change); a warmer, wetter scenario from the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC); and a hotter, drier scenario from the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM). Results show that a warmer and drier climate results in more beetle mortality than a wetter and cooler climate, resulting in greater negative impacts to ESs. The estimated loss of ES value is approximately 0.8 million USD per year. Enhanced management is more capable than business-as-usual practices to prevent beetle damages to trees and ESs.
... The global fertilizer requirement is estimated to rise from 193.28 billion US dollars (USD) in 2022 to approximately 241.87 billion by 2030 [182,183]. However, excessive chemical fertilizers endanger soil microbiomes with cascading adverse effects on the trophic feeding levels, ultimately contributing to biodiversity loss [184]. To mitigate these consequences, straw generated from the field must be utilized innovatively for soil amendments. ...
... To date, the extent and magnitude of insect declines in tropical regions, with few long-term insect monitoring schemes, is inconclusive [3][4][5][6][7]15 . Between 1981 and 2014, Barro Colorado Island (BCI), a tropical forest in Panama, experienced increases of 0.36 °C in mean annual temperature and 17.9% in mean annual precipitation 16 ; furthermore, increases of 2-4 °C in air temperature by 2080 are projected for Panama 17 . ...
... Ecologists are just starting to document global warming effects in tropical forests 3,4 . Improved datasets and analytical frameworks suggest that the cascading effects of human stressors (which include increased temperature) in arthropod communities are difficult, but not impossible, to disentangle 6,9 . ...
Forecasting insect responses to environmental variables at local and global spatial scales remains a crucial task in Ecology. However, predicting future responses requires long-term datasets, which are rarely available for insects, especially in the tropics. From 2002 to 2017, we recorded male ant incidence of 155 ant species at ten malaise traps on the 50-ha ForestGEO plot in Barro Colorado Island. In this Panamanian tropical rainforest, traps were deployed for two weeks during the wet and dry seasons. Short-term changes in the timing of male flying activity were pronounced, and compositionally distinct assemblages flew during the wet and dry seasons. Notably, the composition of these distinct flying assemblages oscillated in consistent 4-year cycles but did not change during the 16-year study period. Across time, a Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model explained 75% of long-term variability in male ant production (i.e., the summed incidence of male species across traps), which responded negatively to monthly maximum temperature, and positively to sea surface temperature, a surrogate for El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Establishing these relationships allowed us to forecast ant production until 2022 when year-long local climate variables were available. Consistent with the data, the forecast indicated no significant changes in long-term temporal trends of male ant production. However, simulations of different scenarios of climate variables found that strong ENSO events and maximum temperature impacted male ant production positively and negatively, respectively. Our results highlight the dependence of ant male production on both short- and long-term temperature changes, which is critical under current global warming.