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World Map of Natural Hazards. Earthquake hazard is shown in yellow-brownish colours and has been classified into five grades according to the minimum intensity (Modified Mercalli scale) to be reached or exceeded once in 475 years. Darkest colour means highest hazard. The hazard of tropical windstorms is presented in green colours, again darkest colour corresponds to highest hazard. Classification is according to the five degree Saffir-Simpson scale. Green arrows represent the main cyclone tracks. Other hazards shown are extratropical storms (grey shading) and active volcanoes (small black symbols).
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Loss statistics for natural disasters demonstrate, also after correction for inflation, a dramatic increase of the loss burden since 1950. This increase is driven by a concentration of population and values in urban areas, the development of highly exposed coastal and valley regions, the complexity of modern societies and technologies and probably,...
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... successful product was the World Map of Natural Hazards, first published in 1979 and now in its third edition (Munich Reinsurance Company 1998), and also available on a CD-ROM. The World Map marks the transition to risk evaluation in the sense that it describes probabilities for one component of risk, which is the hazard, see figure 2. ...
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The objective of this study is to examine farmers' willingness to pay for an index based microinsurance scheme (IBMS) for paddy crops to protect against production loss caused by natural disasters in Sri Lanka and to assess product preferences for this IBMS. The contingent valuation method (CV) was used to elicit the willingness to pay for the hypo...
Citations
... The insurance industry today is in urgent need of a solution. The first step to manage the risks of natural disasters is to identify the disasters [10], and we have selected four types of Extreme-weather events, namely, wildfire, drought, flood, and tropical cyclone, as the object of study. ...
Extreme-weather events bring a large scope of influence, cause a large degree of loss and a wide range, how to design a model that is both economical and effective in the evaluation and preservation of landmark buildings has aroused our attention. We firstly use AHP-TOPSIS-FCEM Model to establish comprehensive risk expression for four kinds of Extreme-weather events and weight them as comprehensive meteorological disaster risk assessment factors; we establish vulnerability analysis expression from the economic and social perspectives, and then combine the two to obtain comprehensive insurance risk index, which can be used as the trigger condition of index-based insurance. Then the insurance company's profit model is established: there is a functional relationship between the insurance company's premiums and claims among and the comprehensive insurance risk index. Our model has excellent evaluation decision-making functions, and the integrated disciplines as well as comprehensive factors make it highly practical, which can be extended to evaluation decision-making in investment, urban planning, and other fields in the future with the addition of variable rate adjustment and optimization of missing data values.
... Bu bakış açısına göre "risk, bir kaybın meydana gelmesine ilişkin belirsizlik olarak tanımlanmaktadır" (Rejda, 2005;Ferguson ve Cesur ark., 2005;Gupta, 2011;Outreville, 2012). Sigorta perspektifinden bakıldığında risk üç bileşenden oluşur (Smolka, 2006): tehlike, tehlikeye maruz kalan nesnelerin hassasiyeti ve maruz kalan nesnelerin değeri. ...
... Gelecekteki zarar yükleriyle başa çıkmak, sigorta sektörü için zorlu bir mücadeleyi temsil etmekte ve risk yönetimine bütünsel bir yaklaşım gerektirmektedir. Bu tür bir yaklaşım, riskin tanımlanması, riskin değerlendirilmesi, riskin kontrol edilmesi ve riskin finansmanı adımlarından oluşmaktadır (Smolka, 2006). Riskler bir ülke içerisinde bazı istenmeyen doğal, sosyal ve ekonomik etkilere neden olabilmektedir. ...
... Sigortacılık bağlamında devlet, özel sektörün kapasitesini aşan çok ender, olağanüstü hasarlar ve/veya sigortalanamayan riskler yani katastrofik riskler için son çare reasürör olarak hareket etmek zorundadır (OECD, 2011). Ancak devletin asıl görevi risk yönetimi ve risk Cesur azaltmanın yanında, arazi kullanımı ve düzenlemelerinin tasarlanması ve uygulanması, kritik tesislerin ve altyapının hizmet verilebilirliğinin güvence altına alınması, ilgili yetkililerin sorumluluklarını ve koordinasyonunu tam olarak tanımlayan acil durum planlarının geliştirilmesi ve özel sigorta şirketlerinin afet rezervlerine vergi muafiyeti tanınması şeklinde ifade edilebilir (Smolka, 2006;OECD, 2011;OECD, 2016). ...
zet Dünyanın birçok ülkesinde tarım sektörü ve bu sektörde faaliyette bulunan tüm paydaşlar çok sayıda risklerle karşı karşıyadır. Bu risklerin çoğunluğu alınabilecek çeşitli tedbirler ile bertaraf edilebilirken, Katastrofik Riskler olarak bilinen deprem, kuraklık, sel, fırtına gibi doğal afetler karşısında insanoğlu çoğu zaman çaresiz kalmaktadır. Hükümetler tarım sektörü ile ilgili çeşitli tedbirler alarak ortaya çıkabilecek zararları önleme yoluna gidebilmektedirler. Bu tedbirlerden en önemlisi de Tarım Sigortalarıdır. Tarım sigortaları, çiftçilerin sel, kuraklık, doğal afetler, kazalar ve hastalıklar gibi riskler sonucu karşılaşabilecekleri ekonomik kayıpların azaltılmasında etkili bir mekanizmadır. Bu çalışmada, Katastrofik riskler ve bu risklerin neden olabileceği hasarlar Türkiye'deki tarım sigortaları bağlamında incelenmiştir. Çalışmada nitel yöntem kullanılmıştır. Konu hakkında ilgili literatürde yer alan çalışmalardan faydalanılarak tarım, tarım sektörü, risk, katastrofik riskler ve tarım sektöründeki sigortacılık uygulamaları hakkında ikincil verilerden yararlanılarak belge ve doküman incelemeleri ve değerlendirmeleri yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye'de tarım sigortalarının Tarsim tarafından uygulandığı, sigortalanabilir riskler için gerekli teminatların standart olarak verildiği, ürün ve bölge bazında daha geniş teminatların ise isteğe bağlı olarak ek sözleşmeler ve ek primler sayesinde mümkün olabileceği diğer yandan ise katastrofik nitelikteki risklerin kapsam dışında bırakıldığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Abstract In many countries of the world, the agricultural sector and all stakeholders operating in this sector face many risks. While the majority of these risks can be eliminated by various measures that can be taken, human beings are often helpless in the face of natural disasters such as earthquakes,
... Human societies are perpetually exposed to natural hazards, and the statistics of extreme events are vital to predicting and mitigating their effects (Smith and Katz, 2013). Researchers have employed EVT to explore the intricacies of natural disaster-linked insurance (Smolka, 2006) and catastrophe bonds (Nadarajah et al., 2018). ...
In this paper, we introduce a sub-sampling block maxima approach for constructing and characterizing univariate extreme risk measures.We investigate relationships between block size and block maxima statistics originating from both Gaussian and \gls{gpd}s. We characterize the scaling inherent in extreme risks through the analysis of the \gls{mpmr} and the \gls{evi}. We introduce the \gls{wlse} for \gls{evi}, employ the second moment for plateau finding in \gls{evi} and \gls{ei} estimation, and present the effect of \gls{ei} on the \gls{kld}.The applicability of this approach is demonstrated across a variety of real-world datasets, including meteorite landing mass, earthquake energy release, solar activity, and variations in Greenland's land snow cover and sea ice extent.Our method offers a practical and unified univariate extreme risk measure, capable of capturing a spectrum of extreme risks and accounting for temporal dependence. The approach stands out for its flexibility, sample efficiency, and limited reliance on subjective hyper-parameter tuning, making it a valuable tool in extreme risk modeling.
MSC Classification: 62P12
... Concluyendo, que se debe fomentar el establecimiento de niveles de organización ciudadana para disminuir los efectos de una eventual catástrofe y las autoridades tendrán que estar convencidos que deben de participar difundiendo información acerca de riesgos ocultos, la prevención es un elemento necesario. Smolka (2006) afirma que la capacidad económica que tienen los gobiernos latinoamericanos para asumir el costo de restitución de infraestructura ante cualquier riesgo de desastre significativo no es suficiente, los estados deben protegerse y estar preparados para asumir los costos de restitución y una manera de prevenir es buscar protección de la infraestructura y bienes de capital, frente a esta situación existen mecanismos financieros, entre las cuales están las pólizas que dan cobertura frente a desastres con sumas aseguradas enormes, ofertadas por compañías de seguros, que son recolocadas en reaseguradoras extranjeras y comparten el riesgo. La gestión de riesgos por desastres tiene un aliado en el sector asegurador de manera que las pérdidas de los estados son atenuadas significativamente. ...
Para generar una percepción positiva de la gestión de riesgo de desastres es necesario trabajar en los procesos de estimación, prevención, preparación y rehabilitación con el propósito de proteger la vida de los ciudadanos y el patrimonio del estado. El Ministerio de Desarrollo e Inclusión Social (MIDIS) considerada entre las entidades de primera respuesta frente a desastres naturales a través de la organización y desarrollo de acciones que se ejecutan de acuerdo con sus planes. El presente estudio es un aporte académico su Objetivo: fue determinar de qué manera la gestión del riesgo de desastre incide en la percepción del personal de la sede central del MIDIS, 2021. Método: aplicado fue de enfoque cuantitativo, tipo básica, alcance descriptivo, con diseño correlacional-causal y de corte transversal, la muestra conformada por 52 personas, la técnica para recolección de información fue la encuesta y el instrumento fue el cuestionario. Resultados: Se determinó que la incidencia de la percepción de la gestión de riesgo en el personal del MIDIS es de nivel bueno, basado en la medición estadística de las dimensiones de la variable, en valores porcentuales y ponderando la resultante de cada dimensión. Conclusiones: el 51.9% asume que su percepción es de nivel bueno y para el 48.1% es de nivel regular sustentado por estudios de estimación de peligros como son lluvias intensas, deslizamientos y el protocolos de desarrollo de acciones.
... (Steckler et al., 2016) Tsunami Earthquake, volcanic-induced and underwater landslides, meteorite impact (Brackenridge et al., 2020;L. Li et al., 2016;Paris et al., 2014;Smolka, 2006) Sea-level rise (Li, Switzer, et al., 2018) Population density, dense infrastructure, hazardous materials, elevation (Bird & Grossman, 2011 Unstable geology and soil structure, earthquake, volcanic eruption (Kamp et al., 2008;Paris et al., 2014;Yin et al., 2009) Increase in rainfall, rapid snowmelt (Kawagoe et al., 2009;Petley, 2010) Population density, critical infrastructure (Petley, 2010) Land use and land cover change, agricultural dependence, poverty, awareness and preparedness (Ahmed, 2015;Petley, 2010;Xu et al., 2018) e.g., Chittagong, Bangladesh is at risk of landslides due to unstable soil structures on slope, and increasing precipitation rates as a consequence of climate change. High population density of lower income in landslide prone regions, and lack of landslide awareness puts the region at higher risk. ...
Asia has the fastest growing population and economy, but it is also the most disaster‐prone region in the world. Resilience to disaster impacts from natural hazards will be key to the long‐term sustainability of this rapidly growing region. The first step to building resilience is to identify the key threats that this region faces. We describe these key threats as Black Elephants: a cross between a “black swan” and the proverbial "elephant in the room" — they are extreme events that are known but difficult to address and often ignored. We examine the primary drivers of these looming risks and find that the drivers include underestimated or intensifying hazards, growing exposure, high vulnerability, and unaccounted complexities from multi‐hazard events. In mitigating these key risks, we discuss psychological barriers to action and highlight the importance of information, language, and hope. The known but complex impacts from natural hazards in Asia must be further acknowledged and managed in order to build a more sustainable, resilient future in an increasingly globally connected world.
... Catastrophe (CAT) modeling has developed in the past 40 years from pilot applications [1] to the standard that it is today, used by insurers and reinsurers, public agencies, and corporations [2][3][4]. The process is a computational pipeline ( Figure 1) where a mapping is performed between hazard intensity I(x, y) and loss L(x, y) via a vulnerability function f D . ...
... An empirical relationship approximating the process can otherwise be used with Figure 2). The event size is the volume of matter ejected V [km 3 ], which is also the main parameter of the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) [63]. Other characteristics of the magma, such as temperature T, allow the thermal energy released during the eruption to be estimated [64] (see Section 3). ...
The literature on probabilistic hazard and risk assessment shows a rich and wide variety of modeling strategies tailored to specific perils. On one hand, catastrophe (CAT) modeling, a recent professional and scientific discipline, provides a general structure for the quantification of natural (e.g., geological, hydrological, meteorological) and man-made (e.g., terrorist, cyber) catastrophes. On the other hand, peril characteristics and related processes have yet to be categorized and harmonized to enable adequate comparison, limit silo effects, and simplify the implementation of emerging risks. We reviewed the literature for more than 20 perils from the natural, technological, and socio-economic systems to categorize them by following the CAT modeling hazard pipeline: (1) event source → (2) size distribution → (3) intensity footprint. We defined the following categorizations, which are applicable to any type of peril, specifically: (1) point/line/area/track/diffuse source, (2) discrete event/continuous flow, and (3) spatial diffusion (static)/threshold (passive)/sustained propagation (dynamic). We then harmonized the various hazard processes using energy as the common metric, noting that the hazard pipeline’s underlying physical process consists of some energy being transferred from an energy stock (the source), via an event, to the environment (the footprint).
... The current study demonstrates that there are a variety of thresholds, each of which designs the insurance contract differently according to the conditions of exposure, sensitivity, and political considerations. While it is common knowledge that the governance of extreme events in the agricultural sector is a function of both social and physical conditions (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002;Falco et al., 2014;Hudson, 2018), it is often unclear quite how they shape insurance policy (Smolka, 2006). While the focus of our review study was the design of thresholds prior to a disaster event, the process of designing insurance contracts might result in feedback from the policyholders and insurance companies (see Fig. 1). ...
The use of insurance against disasters triggered by natural hazards has become a common mechanism in the agricultural sector. Typical insurance policies, including those in the agricultural sector, specify an event or threshold beyond which insured payments are triggered. However, there is an absence of studies situating agricultural insurance against natural disasters in the wider insurance framework or depicting the range and evolution of thresholds for extreme events in the agricultural sector. As a result, there is no conceptual framework for understanding how a threshold is selected in real life situations. This study comes to address this gap by developing an archetype for threshold selection under conditions of climate mitigation and adaptation uncertainty. To this end, the study first unpacks the concept of insurance thresholds and identifies its evolution over time as well as its main building blocks: insurance realm, primary thresholds, and risk indicators. It then assembles these building blocks into three generic trajectories (climate exposure, location exposure, and sensitivity), each driven by different external and internal variables. Finally, it lays the foundation for treating the topic of insurance threshold as a research agenda.
... The drastic growth of losses due to natural disasters began in the 1950s, as a result of the concentration of the population in urban areas, the development of coastal areas, as well as the way of life of people, and the development of technologies, but also due to global warming (consequential changes in the natural environment). Without planned measures at the global level, such trends will deepen further (Smolka, 2006). At the global level, natural disasters kill on average 60,000 people per year. ...
... When it comes to the third phase, the best way to control risk is to insure against natural disasters but also through loss prevention and mitigation -1) land-use planning, 2) construction assets and 3) contingency strategies. Finally, it is necessary to consider the possibilities for financing losses, which requires the cooperation of different entities -affected private individuals and business entities, financial institutions, and governments/public authorities (Smolka, 2006). ...
In recent years, natural disasters have compelled public authorities, organizations, and citizens to increase their efforts in properly planning and implementing effective risk management procedures. Accordingly, in literature contemporary concepts such as natural disaster risk management and crisis management emerged. Therefore, the chapter aims to shed light on the significance of natural disaster risk management and crisis management in the development of an effective societal system by its transformation and to point out the positive and negative factors influencing these management activities. The authors will firstly give an overview of these two concepts, their elements, and development phases, and afterward, the investigation of possible positive and negative factors of natural disaster risk management will be introduced. The chapter will make a significant contribution to filling the gap in the literature on mitigating the influence of natural disasters and risk management.
... Importantly, emerging threats, such as climate change impacts, disaster reduction, terrorism mitigation, and rapid urban expansion (Kunreuther et al., 2004;Smolka, 2006;Thompson and Bank, 2007;IPCC, 2012;UN, 2012;World Bank, 2015;Hurlbert and Gupta, 2016;Clavin et al., 2020;Filkov et al., 2020) have accelerated interest in how more explicit consideration of risk in building regulation might lead to more sustainable and resilient built environment. At the core, effective approaches to developing more resilient built environments require an understanding of the hazard scenarios and associated risks, effective risk reduction measures, and implementation of those measures. ...
It has been suggested that future generations of building regulation can become more risk-informed and performance based, and that this can be best facilitated through viewing the building regulatory system as a socio-technical system (STS). A central component of the STS approach to building regulation is that government (regulators) and the market understand and agree the risk measure(s) that have and will be used to define the tolerable level of risks that are addressed through building regulation, the specific risk criteria that will be used in the evaluation of the risks for regulation and design, and the analysis and design approaches that will be used to demonstrate that building design solutions can be verified as meeting the risk criteria and measures. To support these efforts, a risk characterization roadmap is presented as guidance for building regulators embarking on efforts to use risk as a basis for building performance requirements. While the roadmap has been designed to address all health and safety hazards considered within building regulations, characterization of fire risk is used as an example throughout.
... The assessment of the risk of forest fires is a discussed issue for the insurance and reinsurance market (Smolka 2006;Mills 2007). Estimates of the probability of damage can be made based on risk models (Holécy, Hanewinkel 2006;Brunette et. ...
Fire is considered one of the major natural hazards that damages European forests and causes losses for forest owner. The forest fires endanger the financial stability of forest enterprises, which may cause their economic decline. One possibility how to cover these losses is to insure forest land against this kind of specific risk of forest land management. The aim of the present paper is to analyse possibilities of forest fire insurance for forest owners and enterprises in the Slovak private insurance market. The market analysis was based on document analysis of general terms and insurance conditions of chosen private insurance companies and interviews with insurance agents. The results show that forest owners and enterprises have only few options for forest property insurance concerning the specific risk of forest fires. Only one commercial insurance company provides such forest fire insurance product for forest owners. This insurance covers material damage to forest land and timber damage.
