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Two series of smog chamber experiments have been conducted to determine the par- ticulate yield from toluene photo oxidation and to investigate the dependence of the yield on experimental factors. Toluene was oxidized by HO radicals in the presence of NO by irradiating mixtures of toluene/isopropylnitrite/NO with UV light and experiments were done...
Citations
... Extensive research has been done on hydrological impacts in the Rhine basin of climate change (Lammersen, 2002;Bronstert, 2003;Buishand and Lenderink, 2004;Pfister et al., 2004;Bogaard et al., 2005), socio-economic developments (Tol et al., 2003;Vis et al., 2003;) and flood risk management (Middelkoop et al., 2004van Stokkom and Smits, 2002;Van Asselt et al., 2001). A less investigated research area is analyses of development and implementation of flood protection strategies across country borders (De Moel and Aerts, 2006;Mostert, 2003). ...
An appropriate institutional set up is essential for efficient transboundary flood management in the Rhine basin, particularly in view of future uncertainties like climate change. Flood management factors are identified based on a historical comparison in the Netherlands and Germany. They include differences in the perception of the problem and how to solve it; in the understanding of key items and how to address them; in administrative responsibilities and the political will to act. Suggestions are made to improve cooperation, in particular to generate a common problem perception and problem analysis, to develop a common vision for future flood strategies and to create a network of discussion platforms to promote social learning and to prepare, decide and implement flood management issues.
... Walker identifies four criteria for scenarios to be adequate and qualitative: 1) consistency, 2) plausibility; 3) credibility and 4) relevance. 1) Consistency refers to the script not being self-contradictory (see also Van Asselt, 2001). For the CascEff scenarios, the internal consistency is assured by the fact that all scenarios are based on real events with fictional lines of development also inspired by real events. ...
Scenarios are frequently used as an instrument in research projects. The scope, the type of
story- or timelines, the level of detail and other characteristics are determined by the overall
objective of the project, the stage of development they are used in and the specific purpose
for their elaboration. This report clarifies the underlying methodology used for the selection
and elaboration of the CascEff scenarios. For the sake of coherence, basic methodological
guidelines on other, related aspects have been included in this report. They are to be further
developed in subsequent tasks.
... A first step in the analysis is the quantification of the flood risk in the present situation and in the future, under autonomous development. As the autonomous development cannot be known, but is instead highly uncertain, it is common practice to either use prognoses (best guesses), or to explore various futures by distinguishing scenarios (Veeneklaas and Van den Berg, 1995;Bertrand et al., 1999;Van Asselt et al., 2001;UKCIP, 2002;UNEP and RIVM, 2003;Popper et al., 2005). The latter approach has advantages as it allows establishing which alternative strategy performs adequately in different possible circumstances. ...
... In practice, technical measures are usually considered first, after which regulatory, financial and communicative instruments are added (De Bruijn et al., 2008). The review we did in FLOODsite made us propose a top-down approach for defining strategic alternatives based on guiding principles, for example derived from "world-views" (related to "perspectives" as recognized by Thompson, 2002;cf. Van Asselt et al., 2001;Haasnoot et al., 2011) or by deriving them from concepts such as resilience and resistance (Klijn et al., 2004b;De Bruijn, 2005). ...
The Netherlands' policy for flood risk management is being revised in view of a sustainable development against a background of climate change, sea level rise and increasing socio-economic vulnerability to floods. This calls for a thorough policy analysis, which can only be adequate when there is agreement about the "framing" of the problem and about the strategic alternatives that should be taken into account.
In support of this framing, we performed an exploratory policy analysis, applying future climate and socio-economic scenarios to account for the autonomous development of flood risks, and defined a number of different strategic alternatives for flood risk management at the national level. These alternatives, ranging from flood protection by brute force to reduction of the vulnerability by spatial planning only, were compared with continuation of the current policy on a number of criteria, comprising costs, the reduction of fatality risk and economic risk, and their robustness in relation to uncertainties.
We found that a change of policy away from conventional embankments towards gaining control over the flooding process by making the embankments unbreachable is attractive. By thus influencing exposure to flooding, the fatality risk can be effectively reduced at even lower net societal costs than by continuation of the present policy or by raising the protection standards where cost-effective.
... Not all combinations of demographic developments, economic developments and climate change are equally likely. Consistent scenarios are those of which the underlying assumptions, preferences and choices are transparent and consistent among different sectors, problems and scales (Van Asselt et al. 2001). To obtain consistency a clear story-line is used which describes the full future picture. ...
... The perspectives method relies on the recognition of different 'Worl d Views' as defined in the socalled 'Cultural Theory' in social sciences. The method was applied in the IRMA-SPONGE project (Van Asselt et al. 2001, Middelkoop et al. 2004) and the Netherlands' Outlook on Water Resources Management (ICIS 2002) and in earlier research on water resources management (Hoekstra 1998). In this method scenarios of socio-economic and environmental changes are derived from ideas about how the world functions (i.e. ...
... As input for the study, an overview of stakeholder perspectives was made in order to develop awareness among the stakeholders of others' perspectives, and to stimulate discussion. Existing studies either cover only the topic of climate change, or exclusively use scenarios based on cultural theory (Thompson et al., 1990) to study future flood management in the Rhine basin (e.g., van Asselt et al., 2001). They do not use the perspectives of flood management stakeholders. ...
... Q methodology consists of the following five steps (cf. Donner, 2001;van Exel and de Graaf, 2005; see Appendix A for a more extensive discussion of Q methodology): ...
... Subsequently, the analyst selected which individual Q sorts would define each factor. Q sorts were selected, if they had a statistically significant (higher than 0.38, with p<0.01; for formula, see van Exel and de Graaf, 2005) and clean loading on that factor (exceeding the loading on other factors with at least 0.1). Next, PQMethod calculated ultimate factor scores for each statement. ...
This article identifies different stakeholder perspectives on future flood management in the downstream parts of the Rhine basin in Germany and The Netherlands. The perspectives were identified using Q methodology, which proved to be a good, but time-intensive, method for eliciting and analyzing stakeholder perspectives in a structured and unbiased way. Three shared perspectives were found: A) "Anticipation and institutions", B) "Space for flooding" and C) "Knowledge and engineering". These three perspectives share a central concern for the provision of safety against flooding, but disagree on the expected autonomous developments and the preferred measures. In perspective A, the expected climate change and economic growth call for fast action. To deal with the increasing flood risk, mostly institutional measures are proposed, such as the development of a stronger basin commission. In perspective B, an increasing spatial pressure on the river area is expected, and the proposed measures are focused on mitigating damage, e.g., through controlled flooding and compartmentalization. In perspective C, the role of expert knowledge and technological improvements is emphasized. Preferred strategies include strengthening the dikes and differentiation of safety standards.
An overview of stakeholder perspectives can be useful in natural resources management for 1) setting the research agenda, 2) identifying differences in values and interests that need to be discussed, 3) creating awareness among a broad range of stakeholders, and 4) developing scenarios.
... Extensive research has been done on hydrological impacts in the Rhine basin of climate change (Lammersen, 2002;Bronstert, 2003;Buishand and Lenderink, 2004;Pfister et al., 2004;Bogaard et al., 2005), socio-economic developments (Tol et al., 2003;Vis et al., 2003;) and flood risk management (Middelkoop et al., 2004van Stokkom and Smits, 2002;Van Asselt et al., 2001). A less investigated research area is analyses of development and implementation of flood protection strategies across country borders (De Moel and Aerts, 2006;Mostert, 2003). ...
An appropriate institutional set up is essential for efficient transboundary flood management in the Rhine basin, particularly in view of future uncertainties like climate change. Flood management factors are identified based on a historical comparison in the Netherlands and Germany. They include differences in the perception of the problem and how to solve it; in the understanding of key items and how to address them; in administrative responsibilities and the political will to act. Suggestions are made to improve cooperation, in particular to generate a common problem perception and problem analysis, to develop a common vision for future flood strategies and to create a network of discussion platforms to promote social learning and to prepare, decide and implement flood management issues.
... Voor wie dit beleidsalternatief wil plaatsen in de context van wereldbeelden of 'perspectieven' op het functioneren van de wereld en hoe deze te beheren (Thompson, 1990;Van Asselt et al., 2001;Middelkoop et al., 2004) zou kunnen denken aan een 'marktoptimist'. Daarbij hoort een verwachting dat het allemaal weleens mee zou kunnen vallen, een zeker optimisme over wat 'civieltechnische oplossingen' vermogen en innovaties daarin, en de gedachte dat de economische baten van het gebruik van de ruimte voor economische doeleinden de investering waard zijn. ...
... Voor wie dit beleidsalternatief wil plaatsten in de context van 'perspectieven' op het functioneren van de wereld en hoe deze te beheren (Thompson, 1990;Van Asselt et al., 2001;Middelkoop et al., 2004) zou kunnen denken aan een 'hiërarchist/ controlist'. Doel is immers om overstromingen van klein tot groot het hoofd te bieden zonder ze volledig uit te willen bannen. ...
... Here we focus on one element of the approach: the construction of three cultural perspective images. Earlier experimentation with the method discussed in this paper, took place in the context of public planning processes: for example, the Targets study and a study for the design of water management strategies for the Rhine and the Meuse rivers (Van Asselt et al. 2001). Accordingly, the experiment in the chain of farmed salmon was based on the assumption that all actors, despite existing controversies and conflicting short-term interests, may have a common interest in developing a sustainable supply chain of safe and healthy food in an economic as well as an ecological and social sense. ...
This paper describes a participatory foresight method developed and tested by the authors. The method of cultural perspective images, rooted in grid-group of cultural theory, was used in an experimental dialogue among companies and a selection of other stakeholders directly or indirectly involved in the food chain of farmed salmon. The method is used to map different future outlooks based on distinct worldviews and management styles present in the food chain and its social environment. Drawing cultural perspective images helps to foresee when cultural perspectives are commensurable or not. Its use also supports efforts to define a shared future beyond the immediate concerns of competition and cost pressures and to enhance strategic transparency between the cultures in food chains and society.
... Several scenarios have been developed to forecast the possible consequences of this type of climate change for the Rhine basin. One of them is the UKHI scenario that is used to determine the expected discharges in the Rhine (Middelkoop et al., 2001). This scenario resulted in an increasing discharge in the Rhine in winter and a decreasing discharge in summer. ...
... Several scenarios have been developed to forecast the possible consequences of this type of climate change for the Rhine basin. One of them is the UKHI scenario that is used to determine the expected discharges in the Rhine (Middelkoop et al., 2001). This scenario resulted in an increasing discharge in the Rhine in winter and a decreasing discharge in summer. ...
