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Various fits of Monte Carlo simulation to 800% world population increase since start of Industrial Revolution
Source publication
Background: Conceived as a unit of lasting cultural (mostly vertical) trait transmission, memes now include transient horizontally transmitted fads. Memes may sometimes follow the logic of population genetics, e.g. learned birdsong, but not always over the diverse range found in human hosts. Much current work focuses on selection of memes rather th...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... model the Industrial Revolution as a multi-meme event, and see if any fit and how they vary. The results are shown in Table 1. ...Context 2
... number of long term memes since the start of the Industrial Revolution depends on how one categorizes and counts them, which we address below. The shaded green area in Table 1 contains the cases the author thinks more likely. For dispersions below 1%, median and average values converge and standard deviation drops. ...Similar publications
Bat-inspired algorithm (BA) is a robust swarm intelligence algorithm that finds success in many problem domains. The ecosystem of bat animals inspires the main idea of BA. This review paper scanned and analysed the state-of-the-art researches investigated using BA from 2017 to 2021. BA has very impressive characteristics such as its easy-to-use, si...
Citations
... For those curious, the author has analyzed the risk of shared human behavior traits which are not subject to biological selection elsewhere. [22] References [ [13] Handel, A., Miller, J.C., Ge, Y., Fung, I.C. (2020). If containment is not possible, how do we minimize mortality for COVID-19 and other emerging infectious disease outbreaks? ...
Background: Late phase COVID-19 strategic decisions are being made for vaccine protocols such as selective vs. fast. Quantitative trade studies have not appeared. A new faster spreading strain has developed. Quantitative analysis of how it will affect vaccination schedules and final unlock protocol are needed. Lessons learned papers so far deal with prevention of spreading and practice of care issues, leaving major strategy questions about vaccination approach and final unlock open. Methods: We use an SIR-based model tuned for COVID-19 and accounting for seasonality, immunity decline, and vaccination. We add the capability to handle a changing fundamental replication rate (R0) and declining ratio of total to known cases (determined by data fitting). Results: For the present R0 and vaccination schedule a full internal U.S. unlock in April or May 2021 is supportable, however infections reintroduced would propagate in the fall if immunity wears off in 240 days. If the increased R0 becomes established then the infection is never completely extinguished and recurs. If immunity lasts 240 days, re-vaccination is not needed until 2022 even with increased R0 making doses available for use in other countries. Likely 77,000 lives were lost by not meeting the initially planned vaccination targets. Conclusions: The usefulness of trade studies in saving lives is established. Intuitively appealing strategies are not necessarily optimal. Lack of inexpensive random sample testing hampers ability to do trade studies. Phase 3 vaccine trial protocols for epidemics with heavy loss of life should be revisited.
