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Variation range (from min to max) of the coefficients of the factors in equations (3), (5), corresponding to different values of confidence probability.
Source publication
This paper sets forth the findings of the research on the traffic accident rate in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, based upon respective regional statistical data for the four-year period from 2015 to 2018. In order to achieve the goal of the research — to identify the main factors affecting the accident rate, — the methods of c...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... of confidence intervals, based on these provisions, for the coefficients of the factors in equation (3), with account for (5), are presented in Table 1. ...Context 2
... min > 0 and max > 0, the factor adversely affects the accident rate, at min < 0 and max < 0, it has a positive influence, and at min < 0 and max > 0, its influence is uncertain. It follows from Table 1 that at the level of probability equal to at least 0.95, the increase in the number of fatalities is related to the population size and the number of vehicles in the entity, and the decrease in the number of fatalities is related to the density of roads (the higher the density, the less is the number of RTA fatalities), measures of administrative influence, and socio-economic situation in the region. The influence probability upward the sobriety rating is estimated approximately at 0.68. ...Similar publications
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Backgrounds
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Background
The rates of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) graft failure or contralateral ACL rupture range from 17% to 30% in pediatric patients after ACL reconstruction (ACLR). A contributing factor to the high reinjury rate in this population may be the limited evidence regarding appropriate criteria for allowing unrestricted return to activity (R...
Citations
... It should be noted that the accident rates in the statistical databases are presented for a long-term period, which in general allows us to assess the dynamics of changes in the indicators under consideration in the country and draw a conclusion about the effectiveness of the measures taken in the field of road safety. Over the years, a large number of studies in this area are based on these indicators [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11], which consider various approaches to assessing both the number of incidents and the injured and injured in them. Within the framework of this article, a study was made of accident rates in Russia for the period 2015-2022. ...
When working with accident rates, a specialist has to spend quite a lot of time to establish the main places of accidents, certain conditions in which they occurred, which is extremely necessary when determining measures aimed at reducing road accidents. As a result of the research, the authors processed a large amount of data - accident rates for 2015-2021, as a result of which certain dependencies were established between the considered indicators in relative data, which made it possible to develop a probabilistic model for calculating the necessary data with the ability to determine the required conditions. Based on the results obtained, the authors developed an algorithm, according to which procedures were determined when working with accident rates and an assessment of efficiency based on the calculation of the error was carried out. The results obtained allowed us to conclude that the developed probabilistic model and algorithm are effective, in view of the minimum error.
... In the Cartesian coordinate system (c 1 , c 2 . . . , c n−1 ), this hypertetrahedron is a product of the intersection of a positive hyperoctant by a hyperplane that cuts on each coordinate axis a segment equal to unity [56][57][58][59][60]. ...
The performance of this study involves the use of the zoning method based on the principle of the hierarchical relationship between probabilities. This paper proposes an analytical model allowing for the design of information and analysis platforms in intelligent transport systems. The proposed model uses a synthesis of methods for managing complex systems’ structural dynamics and solves the problem of achieving the optimal balance between the information situations existing for the object and the subject under analysis. A series of principles are formulated that govern the mathematical modeling of information and analysis platforms. Specifically, these include the use of an object-oriented approach to forming the information space of possible decisions and the division into levels and subsystems based on the principles of technology homogeneity and information state heterogeneity. Using the proposed approach, an information and analysis platform is developed for sustainable transportation system management, that allows for the objective, multivariate forecasting-based record of changes in the system’s variables over time for a particular process, and where decision-making simulation models can be adjusted in relation to a particular process based on an information situation existing for a particular process within a complex transport system. The study demonstrates a mathematical model that solves the optimal balance problem in organizationally and technically complex management systems and is based on vector optimization techniques for the most optimal decision-making management. The analysis involves classical mathematical functions with an unlimited number of variables including traffic volume, cargo turnover, safety status, environmental performance, and related variables associated with the movement of objects within a transport network. The study has produced a routing protocol prescribing the optimal vehicle trajectories within an organizationally and technically complex system exposed to a substantial number of external factors of uncertain nature.
... Vaa [11] presented Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and relative risk of accidents in road traffic. Kapitanov et al. [12] mentioned that the quality of the regression equations is characterized by means of the coefficients of correlation between actual and estimated values of the number of RTAs. In summary, the statistical methods are typically static and require a relatively large sample of traffic accidents. ...
Elevated road plays a very important role as corridors in urban traffic network, and the occurrence of traffic accidents often causes a great impact. In that sense, we propose a unique and enhanced Autoencoder (AE) to identify elevated road traffic accident (RTA) risk based on traffic anomaly detection in an unsupervised manner. An attention mechanism is introduced to extract the traffic condition features considering traffic spatiotemporal variation characteristics. Additionally, an enhanced loss is also introduced to optimize the ability of unsupervised anomaly detection (UAD) approach to detect anomalous RTA risk and persistent anomalous traffic condition, which can significantly boost the anomaly detection performance using the contaminated traffic condition datasets. To assess the RTA risk, the evaluation mechanism and discriminant threshold are used to quantitatively analyze the detected abnormal traffic condition. Finally, experiments on real traffic datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the model.
... For example, the work [1] is devoted to the problem of road traffic injuries in the Russian Federation. Paper [2] sets forth the findings of the research on the traffic accident rate in distribution over the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. We obtained regression equations relating the main indicators of the accident rate to the most relevant factors. ...
The article is proposed a technology for analyzing and predicting road accidents in the region, consisting of three blocks: a block of cluster analysis of the region’s territories for various emergency situations, a block for modeling accident rates from factors and predicting road accidents and the severity of their consequences in the region. The application of the technology of analysis and forecast for the road traffic accidents is implemented on the example of one of the regions of the Russian Federation – the Udmurt Republic. Using the methods of cluster analysis, the distribution of the territories of the republic into groups with different degrees of accidents was constructed. Regression models of the number of road traffic accidents and the number of people injured and killed in them from qualitative and quantitative factors was built. Regression models also take into account seasonal and territorial dimensions. These components are included in the models after the procedure for their digitization. To model the dynamics of exogenous quantitative factors, adequate autoregression models were selected. Using the technology proposed by the authors to analyze and predict road traffic accidents in the region, a forecast of the road traffic situation in the Udmurt Republic was made.
Introduction
This studypresents a comprehensive evaluation of the effectiveness of passenger transportation using intelligent technologies based on economic, technical, and operational efficiency parameters. It reviews existing approaches to efficiency assessment and proposes an optimal set of criteria for assessing the efficiency of the passenger transport process, which will allow for better planning of routes, movement schedules, and choice of transport rolling stock.
Objective
This study aims to provide a better assessment of the efficiency of passenger transport using intelligent technologies.
Aims
This article aims to carry out an integral assessment of the efficiency of passenger transport using intelligent technologies based on the criteria of economic and technical-operational efficiency, which will allow better planning of routes and schedules and selection of rolling stock
Methods
In order to obtain a comprehensive criterion for assessing the efficiency of the transportation process, diverse techniques, including computer and mathematical modeling, algorithm theory, mathematical statistics, observation, and measurement, were employed.
Results
A general criterion was created in order to evaluate the efficiency of passenger transportation processes based on the overall costs for both the user and the operator. Furthermore, a specific criterion of efficiency for passenger transportation processes has been defined: passenger-kilometers traveled. The applicability of the model is evaluated in a bus corridor in Havana. The results show that due to external factors, namely overcrowding, overall costs decrease at the same rate for both 12-meter and 15-meter buses with different intervals, while the number of passengers transported per kilometer increases at a faster rate for larger buses.
Conclusion
Choosing a criterion to assess the effectiveness of the passenger transportation process requires considering various aspects of importance that will result in passenger comfort and safety, as well as the effectiveness of the transport process. To solve this problem, it is necessary to do additional research and analyses to determine the most appropriate set of criteria under specific conditions. In particular, consider vehicles of smaller capacity to take into account volumes with variable demand.
In the paper, preliminary statistical analysis of the data concerning road accidents in Poland are pre-sented. The number of accidents, fatalities, as well the number of persons injured in accidents with multitude of the detained drunk drivers are considered. The analysis covers daily data from the year 2008 to 2021. Mean and median values were determined and a comparative analysis based on the complementary, partial, and multiple correlation coefficients was carried out. The results are presented for the whole compiled data and separately for monthly and annual quantities. Keywords: mechanical engineering, correlation analysis, road safety, road accidents
A vehicle as an object of increased danger is highly susceptible to violation of operating rules, which causes a decrease in its level of safety and environmental friendliness. Safety-enhancing components, assemblies, and systems increase design complexity and the cost of maintaining a vehicle in good condition, which in turn significantly increases the cost of spare parts and components. Maintenance of these units reduces their maintainability. To assess the life cycle of a vehicle, it is necessary to test its service life management system in dynamically changing environmental conditions. In terms of these problems, the choice of a solution depends on the state of the environment and involves solving a number of multi-criteria problems using various methods of optimization and mathematical modeling. To increase the reliability level of decisions necessary in the service life management system of a vehicle, it is advisable to develop an analytical apparatus based on linear programming methods and the search for a set of Pareto optimal solutions (development of zoning methods), which will make it possible to arrive at optimal decisions given insufficient data on the operating conditions of the vehicle. The study represents an attempt to use a new mathematical apparatus for qualitative identification of the impact of external relations determined by the vehicle operating environment directly on the nature of the technical operation of the vehicle. Both processes are considered as complex dynamic systems forming connections, therefore it was necessary to adapt a number of existing approaches to solving multi-criteria problems of technical operation of vehicles necessary for the consistent implementation of computer modeling for the operation of the service life management system of a vehicle.
Due to the urgency of the task to ensure the operational reliability of roads and compliance with the requirements of Technical Regulations of the Customs Union 014/2011 on road safety, we developed software to determine the danger of moving along the horizontal curve. The developed software is based on the office processing of experimental studies on the horizontal curve and mathematical risk theory models.
A wide range of transport and technological machines (TTMs) (construction and road machinery) are produced based on truck chassis and often used in challenging road conditions as well as in hard-to-reach areas such as the Arctic. The Arctic conditions are characterized by a lack of roads with improved surfaces; therefore, suspensions must withstand high loads caused by uneven roads. The speed of mobile repair shops’ arrival to areas of TTM operation depends on the design of the elastic and damping elements of such repair shops. The paper describes a design of a new pneumohydraulic shock absorber with an additional external chamber. The proposed shock absorber design makes it possible to improve the movement smoothness of machinery when moving off-road, and, therefore, increase the speed of movement.
Due to the planned growth of transport construction in the North of Russia and the Arctic territories, the issues of ensuring machinery operation during such construction, including the organization of its maintenance and repair, become quite urgent. Transport construction, like other linear construction projects in the North, has a number of features that shall be taken into account when organizing repair. These features include low temperatures in winter that persist for long periods, poor transport accessibility, construction facilities scattered along the route under construction, remoteness from industrial centers, etc. To form a repair system that would ensure machinery operability and a high technical readiness coefficient, it is necessary to organize a system of repair shops performing current and restoring repairs, and in some cases, overhaul repairs, as well as maintenance facilities. The paper discusses the main directions of solving the problem related to the arrangement of repair facilities near construction sites. Since heavy excavation equipment is used in these conditions, a problem with its delivery for repair arises. In view of this, we present methods to calculate the demand for trailers servicing the repair system.