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Trends for ICT electric power overall 2030.

Trends for ICT electric power overall 2030.

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The main problems with several existing Information and Communication Technology (ICT) power footprint investigations are: too limited (geographical and temporal) system boundary, overestimation of power saving potential in the next decade, assume that historical power use can predict future global power use in the next decade despite unprecedented...

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... the present predictions suggest a trajectory in between the Best and Expected Case Scenarios in [3], ≈1990 TWh in 2020 and 3200 TWh in 2030 ( Figure 6). The ICT Sector has and will have a considerable share of the global electricity footprint. ...

Citations

... However, it is nontrivial to conduct the estimation accurately as the metaverse is still a newly emerging and constantly evolving concept that covers a wide range of technologies. To reduce the estimation error as much as possible, we speculate the energy consumption and carbon emissions of the metaverse based on the energy figures provided by the following reputable sources: (1) the global IT market size and metaverse market size: a report from The Business Research Company [30] and a report from Emergen Research [29], respectively, (2) the energy consumption of datacenters, enddevices, and networking: articles on Information and Communications Technology (ICT) energy from Huawei Technologies [31], [32], and (3) the energy consumption of the blockchain: a research from the University of Cambridge for calculating the Bitcoin energy [33] and an article from the Technical University of Munich for speculating the overall energy of cryptocurrencies [34]. Note that we take the energy consumption of cryptocurrencies as that of the blockchain since the blockchain is basically used for transactions in the metaverse. ...
... This indicates the severe energy burden by AI inference in view of its widespread use as the metaverse continues expanding to benefit everyone. In summary, it is estimated that the global carbon emissions of end-devices will reach about 442 Mt in 2022, comparable to the carbon emissions of Canada [31], [36], [154]. ...
... According to a recent report [155], as compared with a 4G base station, a typical 5G base station increases the energy consumption by up to twice or more. It is estimated that the global carbon emissions of networking will reach about 95 Mt in 2022, comparable to the carbon emissions of Netherlands, and is expected to increase by 2.7× by 2030 [31], [36], [154]. On the other hand, when it comes to end-devices supporting higher band frequencies, Redmi claims that 5G mobile phones tend to consume about 20% more power than 4G ones [156], and real measurement studies conducted by Xu et al. [ Fig. 11. ...
Preprint
The metaverse has recently gained increasing attention from the public. It builds up a virtual world where we can live as a new role regardless of the role we play in the physical world. However, building and operating this virtual world will generate an extraordinary amount of carbon emissions for computing, communicating, displaying, and so on. This inevitably hinders the realization of carbon neutrality as a priority of our society, adding heavy burden to our earth. In this survey, we first present a green viewpoint of the metaverse by investigating the carbon issues in its three core layers, namely the infrastructure layer, the interaction layer, and the economy layer, and estimate their carbon footprints in the near future. Next, we analyze a range of current and emerging applicable green techniques for the purpose of reducing energy usage and carbon emissions of the metaverse, and discuss their limitations in supporting metaverse workloads. Then, in view of these limitations, we discuss important implications and bring forth several insights and future directions to make each metaverse layer greener. After that, we investigate green solutions from the governance perspective, including both public policies in the physical world and regulation of users in the virtual world, and propose an indicator Carbon Utility (CU) to quantify the service quality brought by an user activity per unit of carbon emissions. Finally, we identify an issue for the metaverse as a whole and summarize three directions: (1) a comprehensive consideration of necessary performance metrics, (2) a comprehensive consideration of involved layers and multiple internal components, and (3) a new assessing, recording, and regulating mechanism on carbon footprints of user activities. Our proposed quantitative indicator CU would be helpful in regulating user activities in the metaverse world.
... Nonetheless, the industry itself must also contribute to the reduction of global power consumption and carbon emissions through power-saving measures and innovations. According to study by Andrae, depending on scope, in 2020 ICT stands for up to 7% of the total global electricity use [1]. According to an estimate from 2019, the ICT industry produced over 444.23 Mt of CO2 emissions endpoints have been made available. ...
Article
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Growing energy consumption is a global problem. The information and communications technology (ICT) industry is in a critical role as an enabler of energy savings in other sectors. However, the power consumption of the ICT sector also needs to be addressed, to contribute to the overall reduction of power consumption and carbon emissions. A new era has begun as the fifth generation (5G) mobile data connection rollouts are advancing globally and are expected to reach a 10% share of end-user devices and connections by 2023. The available references on energy consumption in global mobile networks are rather old and highly averaged – only estimates of energy consumption relative to data volumes are available. There is an information gap regarding the energy consumption of emerging 5G and advanced 4G technologies. Therefore, it has been difficult to understand the actual electricity consumption differences between generations and spatially aggregated electricity consumption once these generations are combined to offer capacity and coverage. This article fills this gap by providing a reference on the energy consumption of base transceiver stations for reported mobile data usage for different Radio Access Technologies; 3G, 4G and 5G respectively. To the best of our knowledge, there is no reference to scientific research on the comparison of energy intensity per square kilometer for 3G, 4G and 5G mobile radio technologies, using actual operator data. The objective of this research was to improve the understanding of the actual energy consumption of different Radio Access Technologies (RAT). The results also give insight to decision makers on when to modernize the operator radio access network. The article reports on the results of field measurements on data and visitor volumes and shares of different RATs. The research contains two statistical RAT combination cases, one representing the European average and the other Finnish mobile networks. The analyses were done for dense urban (DU) and suburban (SU) areas.
... The rapid development of cloud computing, as well as the Internet of Things, are possible explanations for this trend. Although some new data show that this prediction was overestimated [4], the available forecasts confirm that the general trend will not change in the next few years. ...
... Estimated annual ICT energy consumption. (Source: data from[4,6]). ...
Article
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Energy has become the most expensive and critical resource for all kinds of human activities. At the same time, all areas of our lives strongly depend on Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). It is not surprising that energy efficiency has become an issue in developing and running ICT systems. This paper presents a survey of the optimization models developed in order to reduce energy consumption by ICT systems. Two main approaches are presented, showing the trade-off between energy consumption and quality of service (QoS).
... This pressure applies also to the information and communication technology (ICT) sector, which has raised significant concerns regarding its aggravating impact on climate changegiven its current 2.7% share of global CO 2 emissions [45] and the expected significant increase in its power consumption by 2030 [4,6]. Hence, monitoring and reducing the CO 2 emissions from ICT use is increasingly relevant for enterprises. ...
... Among various part of ICT, networks are responsible for around 13% of energy consumption [4], a third of which is attributable to backbone (core) networks 1 [32]. Consequently, backbone networks on average cause 4% of ICT CO 2 emissions. ...
Preprint
In the years after signing the Paris agreement, corporations have been experiencing increasing pressure to monitor and reduce their carbon footprint. Nevertheless, the information and communication technology sector lacks an effective tool for monitoring and optimizing the carbon footprint of data transmissions over the public Internet. In this work, we propose a carbon-footprint transparency system based on a path-aware Internet architecture that enables endpoints to monitor the carbon footprint of their inter-domain communications, and optimize it through carbon-aware path selection. Furthermore, we show by means of simulations that in a realistic inter-domain topology, 85% of traffic sources could reduce the carbon footprint of their outbound inter-domain traffic by at least 50% through carbon-aware path selection.
... The thesis here is that the energy consumption of the whole ICT field is much smaller than that of other fields (e.g., transportation and industry) 3 and advancing ICT, although expensive in terms of energy, can induce larger potential savings in the more energy-intensive fields. In line with this, a study from 2020 [8] considers "plausible that ICT infrastructure can help save electric power in society as a whole", as other authors expect [49]. Unfortunately, in 2030 the study predicts a growth of electricity consumption despite any optimistic assumptions about improved energy efficiency of the ICT devices. ...
... 4 However, network traffic may not be anymore a good index to estimate computer electricity [7], since nowadays data centers consume a lot of power for data processing. Estimating the number of operations in ICT devices and the energy cost in terms of J/operation is proposed as an alternative [8]. This is mainly due to the steep rise of Deep Learning algorithms into every aspect of life. ...
Conference Paper
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The Internet of Sounds (IoS) is an emerging research area at the intersection of engineering fields and humanities including computing , communication technology, audio signal processing, acoustic monitoring, music and arts. Although this research field is expected to have beneficial impacts on society through entertainment, creativity , well-being, monitoring and security, it is paramount to be aware of the adverse impact of current technology on the environment in terms of greenhouse gases emissions, pollution and soil consumption. In this study we provide a survey of the environmental issues produced by current information and communication technology (ICT) and relate these to the use cases that the IoS envisions. On the basis of this survey, we identify some key aspects to reduce the footprint of IoS services and products and then we provide suggestions to make advancements in IoS environment-aware.
... Energy efficiency in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) is now a grand technological challenge and the top design constraint in all computing settings (mobile, desktop, server, supercomputer, and data centre) [1], [2]. Energy-proportional computing is considered fundamental to addressing this challenge. ...
Conference Paper
Energy proportionality (EP) means designing a system that consumes energy proportional to the amount of work it performs. For an EP system, optimizing an application for performance also optimizes the application for total energy. Energy-proportional multicore CPUs and graphics processing units (GPUs) are fundamental to addressing the grand technological challenge of energy efficiency in Information and Communications Technology. In this work, we formally propose strong and weak notions of EP for modern microprocessors. Multicore CPUs were experimentally found to violate both strong and weak EP. This work presents the first attempt at a theoretical analysis to explain the behaviour. GPUs are carefully designed with on-chip resources primarily dedicated to achieving high arithmetic throughput rather than caching and flow control. Consequently, the mainstream view is that GPUs exhibit strong and weak EP. However, GPUs were experimentally found to violate strong EP. In this work, we experimentally study the weak EP of an Nvidia K40c GPU and an Nvidia P100 PCIe GPU using a specially designed matrix multiplication application. We show that both the GPUs also breach weak EP, which presents an opportunity for bi-objective optimization of the application for dynamic energy and performance. By analyzing the Pareto fronts of dynamic energy and performance for a wide range of workloads, the maximum dynamic energy savings are up to 18% while tolerating a performance degradation of 7% for Nvidia K40c GPU and (50%,11%) respectively, for Nvidia P100 PCIe GPU.
... By triangulating with eight different calculations of the energy consumption of streaming media, together with a Fermi calculation (i.e., back of the envelope), we can confirm the assessment of French think tank The Shift Project [44] -despite its use of the additive method -that streaming media was responsible for about 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions as of 2019. That figure is increasing quickly and contributing to the expansion of ICT's overall energy footprint [2,6,53]. ...
... Recently a consensus has developed that it is not feasible to separately parse out the contribution of streaming video to ICT, except for large contributors like YouTube [54]. Power consumption of data centers, networks, and devices must be measured separately (e.g., [2,22]). Some engineers (e.g., [37]) argue that more data, as in streaming video and other data-intensive practices, does not necessarily result in more energy consumption. ...
... Estimates vary widely and require constant updating due to changes in demands and technological capacities [15]. Yet, most of them come out quite differently from the wishful thinking of the GeSI-report, and all require both political and industrial efforts for emission reductions to take place, see [16][17][18]. ...
... [95] (pp. [16][17]. An example from one of my research projects might explain how some of the challenges can be unfolded empirically. ...
Article
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How can an anthropology of digital technology contribute to our understanding of climate mitigating initiatives? Governments and private sector industries argue that climate mitigation must focus on “decoupling” economic growth from carbon emissions if we are to reduce climate impact while still maintaining a healthy economy. Most proponents of decoupling envisage that digitalization will play a central role in this operation. Critics, however, argue that IT has a large and often unacknowledged climate impact, while IT solutions also frequently bring new and unforeseen problems, particular or systemic. The challenge of decoupling is thus broader than the management of the relationship between the economy and the climate. As much as decoupling is about how we imagine that the climate crisis can be solved with technologies, trusting that they can create the changes we need, it is also about the cultural value of lifestyles that we do not want to change. Seeing the climate crisis from this perspective opens the door for an anthropology of digital technology, which allows us to approach decoupling as a matter of how sociocultural change is imagined in the spaces between IT, climate change and society. The article thus contributes to the qualitative social scientific literature on perceptions of change by focusing on some of the ways that implicit ideas of change are embedded in the promotion of digital technologies as solutions to climate change. In addition, it presents to a wider scientific audience the perspectives that an anthropologically inspired analytic may provide on this topic.
... Besides the amount of data processed (see software sufficiency below), decisive factors for the energy demand of data centers are waste heat recovery, cooling technology, and server utilization [102]. Data center infrastructure and associated environmental impacts are expected to increase significantly in the future [103,104]. ...
... The largest share of IP data traffic takes place within data centers [108], which, together with the networks, account for about half of the sector's operational electricity demand [76]. The networks' contribution to that demand is determined by the type of access network (mobile vs. fixed, optical fiber vs. ADSL), bandwidth, utilization factor of network components, and the kind of access device used [103,[109][110][111]. ...
... Moreover, suggestions such as an advertising ban on selected Internet areas (e.g., on search engines, social media platforms) could face significant political opposition from IT companies or from the entire marketing industry. However, given that the share of energy use from applying ICT throughout economy and society is higher than the energy consumed in producing hardware [76,103] Civil society Activism and political participation that demand sufficiency-oriented production, consumption, data handling, and legislation; grassroot movements, associations, voluntary work (e.g., repair café) software sufficiency would also contribute more to reducing the overall burden from the sector. Challenges-but also effectiveness-increase further when looking at user sufficiency. ...
Article
Full-text available
ICT hold significant potential to increase resource and energy efficiencies and contribute to a circular economy. Yet unresolved is whether the aggregated net effect of ICT overall mitigates or aggravates environmental burdens. While the savings potentials have been explored, drivers that prevent these and possible counter measures have not been researched thoroughly. The concept digital sufficiency constitutes a basis to understand how ICT can become part of the essential environmental transformation. Digital sufficiency consists of four dimensions, each suggesting a set of strategies and policy proposals: (a) hardware sufficiency, which aims for fewer devices needing to be produced and their absolute energy demand being kept to the lowest level possible to perform the desired tasks; (b) software sufficiency, which covers ensuring that data traffic and hardware utilization during application are kept as low as possible; (c) user sufficiency, which strives for users applying digital devices frugally and using ICT in a way that promotes sustainable lifestyles; and (d) economic sufficiency, which aspires to digitalization supporting a transition to an economy characterized not by economic growth as the primary goal but by sufficient production and consumption within planetary boundaries. The policies for hardware and software sufficiency are relatively easily conceivable and executable. Policies for user and economic sufficiency are politically more difficult to implement and relate strongly to policies for environmental transformation in general. This article argues for comprehensive policies for digital sufficiency, which are indispensible if ICT are to play a beneficial role in overall environmental transformation.
... The number of devices will rise by 50% and the digital footprint will double or triple in 2025 [23]. Another study [24] showed that the carbon footprint of ICT in 2015 was similar to 2010 due to energy-efficient devices and smartphone usage. ...
Article
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The advent of easily accessible technology, e-commerce, online streaming, and social networking platforms has led to massive amounts of data being stored and processed every second. The IT infrastructures needed to support this digital age consume a large amount of energy and have a negative impact on the environment. There have been several different efforts to estimate the carbon footprint of the internet, but there is no proven exact method for it. Therefore, the goals of this paper are, first—to critically review the carbon emission calculation methods and compare the results, and second—to publicize the environmental impact of our daily simple habit of internet usage. We calculated the carbon footprint of the most popular four online services (TikTok, Facebook, Netflix, and YouTube) by using top-cited methods such those from Obringer, the Shift Project, Andrae, and Hintemann and Hinterholze. When comparing the emitted carbon dioxide, the weighted average of online video streaming usage per day is 51 times more than 14 h of an airplane ride. Netflix generates the highest CO2 emissions among the four applications due to its high-resolution video delivery and its number of users.