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Traditional single-vehicle fatal (A) and non-fatal (B) crash risk and adjusted single-vehicle fatal (C) and non-fatal (D) crash risk by driver age and gender stacked for daytime (06:00 h-18:00 h), evening (18:00 h-21:00 h), and nighttime (21:00 h-06:00 h) hours. Left and right columns represent male and female crash risks, respectively. Traditional and adjusted crash risks were each scaled annually by dividing their values by the largest across driver groups.
Source publication
Introduction:
Concerns have been raised that the nonlinear relation between crashes and travel exposure invalidates the conventional use of crash rates to control for exposure. A new metric of exposure that bears a linear association to crashes was used as basis for calculating unbiased crash risks. This study compared the two methods - convention...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... crash involvement for age-gender groups was examined by time of day, it was found that nighttime crashes accounted for 80% (95% CI, 80%-81%) of the traditional single-car fatal crash risk for 17- to 20-year-old men and 85% (95% CI, 84%-86%) for women ( Fig. 2A). To a lesser extent, nighttime crashes also accounted for a large propor- tion of teen drivers' non-fatal crash rates, with 66% (95% CI, 66%-66%) for men and 62% (95% CI, 62%-63%) for women (Fig. 2B). Hence, the tra- ditional method of estimating driver crash risk indicates a high risk of driving at night among the youngest drivers relative to other times of the ...
Context 2
... crash involvement for age-gender groups was examined by time of day, it was found that nighttime crashes accounted for 80% (95% CI, 80%-81%) of the traditional single-car fatal crash risk for 17- to 20-year-old men and 85% (95% CI, 84%-86%) for women ( Fig. 2A). To a lesser extent, nighttime crashes also accounted for a large propor- tion of teen drivers' non-fatal crash rates, with 66% (95% CI, 66%-66%) for men and 62% (95% CI, 62%-63%) for women (Fig. 2B). Hence, the tra- ditional method of estimating driver crash risk indicates a high risk of driving at night among the youngest drivers relative to other times of the ...
Context 3
... contrast, the adjusted crash risk metric revealed that crashes at night accounted for a much smaller proportion of the overall crash risk in the 17-20 year age range. Nighttime crashes accounted for 61% (95% CI, 60%-61%) of the adjusted fatal crash risk for men and 53% (95% CI, 53%-54%) for women (Fig. 2C). Just 47% (95% CI, 47%-47%) of the adjusted non-fatal crash risk of 17-to 20-year-old male drivers was accounted for by nighttime crashes, compared to 42% (95% CI, 42%-42%) for female drivers (Fig. ...
Context 4
... contrast, the adjusted crash risk metric revealed that crashes at night accounted for a much smaller proportion of the overall crash risk in the 17-20 year age range. Nighttime crashes accounted for 61% (95% CI, 60%-61%) of the adjusted fatal crash risk for men and 53% (95% CI, 53%-54%) for women (Fig. 2C). Just 47% (95% CI, 47%-47%) of the adjusted non-fatal crash risk of 17-to 20-year-old male drivers was accounted for by nighttime crashes, compared to 42% (95% CI, 42%-42%) for female drivers (Fig. ...
Citations
... Various studies explore different methodologies for analysing RTAs, considering factors such as socio-economic conditions, engineering advancements, and policy frameworks. However, existing regulations often fall short of effectively preventing accidents [15][16][17][18]. Due to their accuracy and reliability, road accident prediction models have become an essential tool in traffic safety research. ...
A significant unanticipated issue for the study of transport systems is the occurrence of road traffic accidents, resulting in the number of cases, injuries, and fatalities. The Albanian transport system has suffered from negligence and a lack of investment. Consequently, road traffic accidents have increased while current efforts to improve road safety remain minimal compared to the growing traffic volume. The research aims to provide an overview of road traffic accident statistics in Albania using data from 2015 to 2024, offering insights into the current situation and future projections. Furthermore, three key attributes—road traffic accidents, population projections, and the number of registered vehicles during the study period—have been considered in developing a nonlinear road accident prediction model. The data on road traffic accidents, in terms of the total number of road traffic cases (C), road traffic fatalities (F), and road traffic injuries (I), were used from road traffic accidents in Albania as dependent variables. The Andreassen model has been adapted to develop a regression model suitable for Albania's data, where population projections and the number of registered vehicles are taken as independent variables. Moreover, this paper aims to model the evolution of road safety as a function of the level of motorization and population projections, emphasizing that the increase in the number of vehicles leads to a decrease in the number of traffic fatalities, and an increase in the number of accident cases, as well as in the number of injured per vehicle. The study results allow planners to estimate future road traffic accidents in the country.
... which models intraday fluctuations with low risks for accidents at night and larger risks in the afternoon, which have also been detected e.g. in [21]. The constantC ∈ [0, 1] works as a weighting parameter between the background noise and the excitation accidents and can be varied. ...
... for a sufficiently small stepsize ∆t > 0. The mean number of accidents given in (16) and of the energy given in (21) are discretised applying a rectangular rule with stepsize ∆t = 1 100 to the integral. The same technique is used for the computation of Λ(t) and M (t) defined in (11). ...
We introduce a counting process to model the random occurrence in time of car traffic accidents, taking into account some aspects of the self-excitation typical of this phenomenon. By combining methods from probability and differential equations, we study this stochastic process in terms of its statistical moments and large-time trend. Moreover, we derive analytically the probability density functions of the times of occurrence of traffic accidents and of the time elapsing between two consecutive accidents. Finally, we demonstrate the suitability of our modelling approach by means of numerical simulations, which address also a comparison with real data of weekly trends of traffic accidents.
... Nighttime driving conditions can increase nervousness and make risks seem larger than they are. This study also estimated future crash involvement and found young drivers were more likely to be involved [84]. ...
Traffic accidents have become a pressing global public health concern, contributing to millions of deaths and injuries each year. Similar to many countries, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is facing significant challenges to overcome the burden of traffic-related injuries and fatalities, prompting the need for effective intervention measures. With the latest advances in sensor fusions, detection, and communication technologies, Automated Traffic Enforcement Systems (ATES) have gained widespread popularity as a solution to improve road safety by ensuring compliance with traffic laws. The objective of this study is to review the effectiveness of ATES in reducing traffic accidents and improving road safety and to identify the challenges and prospects it faced during its implementation. This review uses a detailed overview of different types of ATES deployment, including speed cameras, red-light cameras, and mobile enforcement units, and a comparison between global case studies and local research findings, with special emphasis on the context of Saudi Arabia. This study uses a systematic literature review methodology, using the PRISMA 2020 Protocol, and conducts a scientific literature database search using specific keywords. This study finds that ATES has emerged as an effective tool to ensure traffic compliance and improve overall traffic safety and that various ATES devices have been profoundly effective in reducing traffic crashes. This review concludes that ATES can be an effective solution to improve road safety, but ongoing evaluations and adjustments are necessary to address public perceptions and ensure equitable enforcement.
... While there is a lack of data on the specific driving situations that are most challenging, prior studies have reported reasons for young driver crashes, which highlights opportunities for tailoring training programs and/or messaging about safe driving. For example, crashes in young drivers are significantly associated with driving at night (i.e., between the hours of midnight and 6:00 AM) [44,45], poor weather and road conditions [6,46], and wildlife [47]. Meanwhile, police reported that distracted driving, including using a cell phone, was also the most common reason for crashes, followed by driving too fast for conditions and driver inexperience/confusion. ...
While studies have typically examined the driving habits of young drivers living in large urban cities, few have examined the habits of young drivers living in smaller cities with large rural surrounding areas. Three surveys were disseminated to 193 young drivers, 65 police officers, and 62 driving instructors to examine the driving habits and challenging driving situations young drivers experience. Almost a fifth (18.1%) reported consuming alcohol prior to driving; alcohol consumption prior to driving was significantly associated with eating food/drinking beverages while driving, cellphone use, and speeding. The most challenging situations young drivers reported were night driving, encountering wild animals on the road, and driving in extreme weather conditions (e.g., ice, snow). Driving instructors reported that young drivers had challenges with lane positioning, speed control, and navigating traffic signs and signals. Additionally, police officers reported issuing tickets to young drivers primarily for failure to stop, distracted driving, impaired driving, and speeding. Young drivers living in smaller cities and rural communities have unique challenges, including interactions with wildlife, driving on gravel roads, and driving in poor weather and road conditions (e.g., ice, snow). Opportunities for young drivers to be exposed to these scenarios during driver training are critical for increasing awareness of these conditions and reducing crash risk.
... Menurut tulisan yang dipaparkan oleh (Regev et al., 2018), angka kecelakaan tertinggi seringkali terjadi pada usia muda dengan rentan umur 21-29 tahun, lalu angkanya merosot hingga usia 60-69 tahun. Kematian akibat kecelakaan lalu lintas terjadi kepada pengendara kendaraan beroda empat ringan sebesar 30%, kemudian 23% kepada pejalan kaki, 21% pengendara beroda dua atau tiga, 6% pengendara sepeda, dan 3% pengguna e-scooter (Guritnaningsih et al., 2018). ...
Kecelakaan merupakan fenomena dan isu internasional yang angka prevalensi kematiannya masih belum mengalami penurunan dari tahun ketahun. Faktor manusia kemungkinan besar memiliki dampak yang paling signifikan terhadap tingkat keparahan dalam kecelakaan lalu lintas. Dalam penelitian ini, peneliti berfokus pada sisi Bias Kognitif dari manusia sebagai sarana untuk membuktikan apakah faktor manusia mempengaruhi kecil besarnya suatu kecelakaan lalu-lintas khususnya di Jalan Pantura Bagian Banyuwangi. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dengan desain fenomenologi. Subjek penelitian ini sebanyak empat responden yang sudah dikualifikasi dengan teknik convience sampling. Pengambilan data pada penelitian ini dilakukan dengan wawancara teknik semi-terstruktur yang dianalisis menggunakan teknik triangulasi. Hasil penelitian ini adalah bahwa bias kognitif memiliki peran dalam mempengaruhi perilaku berkendara secara ugal-ugalan khususnya di Jalan Pantura bagian Banyuwangi. Bias kognitif yang terjadi pada perilaku berkendara ugal-ugalan tersebut dapat disebabkan oleh empat faktor, yakni ketidakstabilan emosi, kesalahan motivasi, pola hidup, dan lingkungan sekitar dari pengendara.
... Finally, our study shows lower injury severity when the driver was female, especially when the outcome assessed is RD. This result is also consistent with that described in studies that have used APC models for road crash fatality rates [5,7], as well as others using different methodologies [6,23,25,34,35]. This may be due to less aggressive driving by women compared to men [36], as well as to the fact that women drive more frequently in environments where crashes tend to be less severe (e.g. in urban areas or during the day) [34,37]. ...
... This result is also consistent with that described in studies that have used APC models for road crash fatality rates [5,7], as well as others using different methodologies [6,23,25,34,35]. This may be due to less aggressive driving by women compared to men [36], as well as to the fact that women drive more frequently in environments where crashes tend to be less severe (e.g. in urban areas or during the day) [34,37]. ...
Background
A prerequisite for understanding temporal changes in road crash severity is an unbiased description of this phenomenon. The aim of this study was to estimate the independent association trends of age, period and cohort with severity, encompassing the risk of death (RD) and the risk of death or hospitalisation (RDH) within 24 h, for drivers of passenger cars involved in road crashes with casualties in Spain from 1993 to 2020.
Methods
The study population comprised 2,453,911 drivers of passenger cars aged 18 to 98 years involved in road crashes included in the registers of the General Directorate of Traffic. Crash- and driver-related variables with sufficient continuity over time were included, establishing RD and RDH as study outcomes. Temporal trends of both outcomes were analysed using multivariable Poisson regression and multivariable age-period-cohort intrinsic estimator models. An additional sensitivity analysis was performed for the subset of single crashes.
Results
Severity estimates showed some variation across strategies. The APC model identified: (1) a J-shaped pattern for the effect of age on severity, (2) a decline in severity between 2001 and 2004 and 2013–2016, and (3) a birth cohort effect for both RD and RDH. In particular, the 1952–1958 cohort had the highest risk (RD = 1.17; 95%CI = 1.11–1.24 and RDH = 1.16; 95%CI = 1.13–1.19), followed by a decreasing trend in subsequent cohorts. Restricting the analysis to single crashes yielded similar results, with the exception of the age effect (severity increased with age). Furthermore, sex differences were observed–female sex was inversely associated with severity, especially for RD.
Conclusions
RD and RDH decreased during the first decade of the 21st century, but seemed to stabilise from 2013 onwards. Evidence from this study support that birth cohort is associated with road crash severity, independent of age and period. This cohort effect might be due, at least partially, to improvements in general and road safety education. Further studies are needed to elucidate the causes of our findings and to identify factors accounting for sex differences.
... When accounting for miles driven, studies have found that older drivers were at greater risk for fatal crash involvement (Cicchino & McCartt, 2014;Teftt, 2008). The rate of crashes and fatalities per mile driven begins to rise for drivers aged 75 and older, approaching the levels observed in younger drivers (Cox & Cicchino, 2021;Fain, 2003;Regev et al., 2018;Tefft, 2012). Pitta et al. (2021) reported that older drivers' risk ranged from 3 to 20 times higher than non-older drivers. ...
This report, prepared by Washington State University’s (WSU) Division of Governmental Studies and Services (DGSS), was produced at the request of the Washington State Department of Licensing (DOL) to assist in addressing specific legislative requirements contained in Engrossed Substitute House Bill (ESHB) 1125 Section 208 3a, which called for the DOL “to develop a comprehensive plan aimed at improving older driver safety.” DGSS was contracted as an independent research unit to produce a plan for addressing the following: (1) a comprehensive review of DOL policies aimed to address issues related to older drivers as well as medically at-risk drivers; (2) feasibility analysis for establishing a medical advisory board (MAB) for the purpose of advising on policy surrounding medically at-risk drivers, to include policies for managing driving privileges; (3) a recommended assessment tool that can be used by the DOL to identify a driver’s level of risk to themselves or others; and (4) guidance on how each component of the comprehensive plan will balance the improvement of driver safety with the preservation of maximal driver independence and privacy.
To develop a comprehensive plan for improving older driver safety, DGSS consulted with numerous entities as specified by ESHB 1125, including individuals representing the Washington Traffic Safety Commission, the Department of Health, the Elder Law Section of the Washington State Bar Association, organizations serving older drivers (e.g., AAA, AARP, Washington State Senior Citizens’ Lobby, Washington State Council on Aging), and driver rehabilitation specialists. In addition, DGSS conducted a comprehensive review of existing research to provide an assessment of the nature and scope of driver safety as it pertains to age; quantitatively analyzed Washington State crash data; assessed the feasibility of establishing a medical advisory board (MAB) in the state of Washington through evaluation of existing practices in the United States and review of the relevant research MABs; and reviewed existing screening tools and assessments for validity and reliability.
... Some studies have examined the relationship between drivers' socioeconomic characteristics and crash severity. Studies conducted in Wisconsin, USA [7]; Alabama, USA [8] and Great Britain [9] reveal that older people are more likely to experience higher fatalities in crashes. Drivers who are over 70 years old have a higher death rate than younger drivers in the USA. ...
Drivers with physical and/or mental impairments face many driving challenges. However, not many studies have been carried out to understand the factors that contribute to crashes involving these drivers and how these factors influence their crash outcomes. This study aims to address this gap in the road safety literature. The study uses historical crash data from the State of Alabama for at-fault physically impaired drivers and utilizes a random parameter with heterogeneity in a mean modeling approach to account for unobserved heterogeneity. The model estimation results reveal that in rural areas, driving over the speed limit, the time of crash being between 6.00 p.m. and 11.59 p.m., younger drivers, employed and distracted drivers were associated with severe injuries. Minor injury crashes are found to be associated with female drivers, state roads and residential areas. Finally, property-damage-only crashes are more associated with weekdays, driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs, a road with left curvature, driving too fast for the road conditions and intersections. The results obtained provide a foundation for the adoption of targeted countermeasures to improve highway safety for physically impaired drivers and all road users in general.
... However, it's worth noting that previous studies have yielded contrasting findings, indicating a higher RTC risk during night-time compared to other times of the day. These studies, conducted in both developing and industrialized countries, have further highlighted that the case fatality rate tends to be higher for night-time crashes than those occurring during daylight hours 29,30 . Factors contributing to this increased risk at night include reduced visibility due to darkness, potentially impaired perception and reaction times, and the presence of other factors like fatigue and alcohol impairment. ...
In Lebanon, the lack of quality data on road traffic injuries (RTIs) led to the implementation of a hospital-based RTI surveillance system by the Ministry of Health in in private and public-run hospitals in the Bekaa governorate. This paper aims to describe the characteristics and severity of RTIs recorded over two years during the pilot phase. It also assesses the strengths and challenges of the surveillance system, highlighting areas for enhancement. The data collected from the Emergency department (ED) was used to conduct a retrospective analysis of population-based injuries hospitalized for road traffic crashes (RTC). Designated focal persons reported injuries weekly using a standardized form, which included demographic and crash-related variables, body lesions, and vital signs. Data were coded per the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10), entered into Epidata, and analyzed using SPSS. The RTI surveillance system was assessed using Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis. Over two years, a total of 1576 cases of RTIs were reported. The male-to-female ratio was 2.16 and the majority of RTIs (44.4%) were recorded among those aged between 15 and 29 years old. From 2013 to 2015, a decrease of 0.7% in the revised trauma score (RTS < 4) was recorded. On the contrary, an increase of 3.9% in injury severity score (ISS) that ranged between 15 and 75 was reported. The probability of survival of an injured individual at one month was improved. The hospital-based surveillance system demonstrated strengths in structured data collection and ethical considerations but faced challenges like underreporting, limited coverage, and resource constraints. Recommendations for improvement include enhancing data quality and timely reporting, ultimately supporting evidence-based road safety interventions.
... The regression analysis revealed that the independent variables in the model explained 31 ...
... The findings of this study reveal that younger drivers and those with less experience are at a higher risk for RTCs, which is consistent with prior studies [29,31]. This can be attributed to younger drivers' limited driving experience and a greater propensity for risk-taking behaviors. ...
... Drivers with such extensive experience are more familiar with various road conditions, have honed their ability to anticipate potential hazards, and generally exhibit more defensive driving behaviors. They are also more likely to have developed a strong sense of intuition and judgment when navigating challenging situations, which can help prevent accidents [29,31]. On the other hand, drivers with 6-20 years of experience, while still relatively experienced, may not exhibit the same level of caution or adaptive strategies as those with over two decades of driving experience. ...
Despite the critical role of bus drivers in the Ghanaian economy, research on their safety is limited, hindering progress towards reducing road traffic crashes (RTCs) in line with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.6. This study aimed to investigate the rate of RTCs and near misses among long-distance bus drivers, identifying key predictors.
This cross-sectionl survey sampled 7,315 long-distance bus drivers operating from Accra and Tema to other parts of Ghana and sub-region. Descriptive and binary logistic regression analyses were condcuted using Jamovi software version 2.5.3.
The study found that 53.7% and 96.9% of bus drivers had at least one RTC and one near-miss two years prior to data collection respectively. Older age, higher education, and extensive driving experience (≥ 21 years) reduced RTC risk, while factors like 6–20 years of experience, individual bus ownership, irregular shifts, long driving hours, sleepiness, job security, low decision authority, and skill discretion increased RTC risk. Near-misses were more likely with public bus ownership, not driving alone, low decision authority, skill discretion, and supervisor support, while high work-family conflict reduced near-miss likelihood.
Concerted efforts are needed to implement targeted interventions aimed at regulating working hours, enhancing job security and integrating occupationl health and safety standards in the Ghanaian bus transport industry. By prioritizing evidence-based policies and practices, stakeholders can work towards creating safer roads and healthier work environments for bus drivers.
