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The two basins Mantaro (yellow) and Urubamba (purple) of the CLIMANDES project. The green crosses indicate the long-term climatological series that are of principal concern in the project. The stations outside the basins (red dots) are used as references for homogenization. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
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![Fig. 3. Trends of maximum and minimum temperature [?C/decade], and...](profile/Mario-Rohrer/publication/309620929/figure/fig1/AS:425034410926080@1478347508038/Trends-of-maximum-and-minimum-temperature-C-decade-and-percentage-change-of_Q320.jpg)
CLIMANDES is a pilot twinning project between the National Weather Services of Peru and Switzerland (SENAMHI and MeteoSwiss), developed within the Global Framework for Climate Services of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Split in two modules, CLIMANDES aims at improving education in meteorology and climatology in support of the WMO Regi...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... coordination of CLIMANDES is carried out by WMO, while the project is implemented by SENAMHI and MeteoSwiss in collaboration with the UNALM, the University of Bern (Switzerland), and Meteodat GmbH (Switzer- land). More specifically, Module 2 of CLIMANDES (presented in this manuscript) focuses on the two river basins of Urubamba and Mantaro (Fig. 2), which are mainly situated in the Cuzco and the Junín region, respectively. The Mantaro basin has an area of 34,550 km 2 and the Urubamba basin has an area of 76,200 km 2 . Both river basins are partly glacierized and their water resources are important for agriculture, hydro-electricity, and the mining ...
Context 2
... is located at the central and occidental coast of South America, directly below the equatorial line between 0°01 0 48 00 S and 18°21 0 03 00 S, and 68°39 0 27 00 W and 81°19 0 34.5 00 W (Fig. 2). The Peruvian climate is influenced by many factors such as a broad lat- itudinal range and a complex orography, which is strongly shaped by the Andean cordillera, the cold coastal Humboldt stream, the anticyclone of the southern Pacific, and even by the southern Atlantic. Peru encompasses up to 27 different climate types ...
Context 3
... was selected for homogenization since it is state-of-the-art ( Venema et al., 2012), it is freely available, and runs on the open source soft- ware R (R Development Core Team, 2014). The enhanced data was used to calculate the 27 CCIs (Table 1) using the R-package ''climdex_pcic" (Klein Tank et al., 2009). The 27 CCIs were developed to support NHMSs, to identify and describe changes in extreme values under climate change conditions, and to provide a software package that implements a basic set of indices for cli- mate extremes. ...
Context 4
... quality (Section 3.3). Finally, ten conventional stations for the Urubamba and the Man- taro basin were selected, corresponding to a station density of roughly one per 10,000 km 2 . For homogenization, the station net- work was complemented with stations from neighboring regions in the Andes, resulting in a number of 24 climatological stations (Fig. 2). All stations were quality controlled, corrected, and homog- enized during CLIMANDES. Suspicious data detected by RClimDex was controlled and corrected ''by hand" using the original data sheets. The quality controlled data was homogenized using HOMER within a workshop given by an external expert. Due to the lack of metadata (e.g., ...
Citations
... This supports users in making defensible choices and incorporating environmental factors into their planning procedures. In this way, a CS enhances the capacity and improves the training of the participants on climatesensitive issues at every level [27,33,41,42]. ...
Climate change is already having a negative impact on many areas of human activity, affecting life globally. It is more urgent than ever to increase our adaptive capacity to respond to current and future climate change risks. Climate services refer to a specialized sector that encompasses both research and operational activities. This sector is primarily focused on interpreting and communicating knowledge and information about climate risks in a manner that is tailored to meet the specific needs of diverse user communities. Climate services offer a range of specialized outputs, including forecasts, assessments, and advisories, which enable users to make decisions that are based on an understanding of the potential impacts of climate change. The outputs of climate services are designed to help diverse user communities effectively manage risks and capitalize on opportunities arising from climate variability and change. An attempt is made to outline the fundamental elements of climate services and point out their contribution to various aspects of human activity, focusing on their essential role in the adaptability of the priority for action agricultural sector, which appears as considerably vulnerable to the change of considerably susceptible to climate conditions. This article is structured to answer basic questions about climate services in general and to show the specificities of climate services in the agricultural sector.
... The selection of the 16 stations is based on quality criteria and record length. The observations have been quality controlled and homogenized in the course of the projects Climandes 1 & 2 (Rosas et al., 2016) and DECADE (Hunziker et al., 2017) for the period 1965 to 2013. For this study, the time series are extended until 2018. ...
The rainy season is of high importance for livelihoods in the Southern Peruvian Andes (SPA), especially for agriculture, which is mainly rain fed and one of the main income sources in the region. Therefore, knowledge and predictions of the rainy season such as its onset and ending are crucial for planning purposes. However, such information is currently not readily available for the local population. Moreover, an evaluation of existing rainy season indices shows that they are not optimally suited for the SPA and may not be directly applicable in a forecasting context. Therefore, we develop a new index, named Climandes index, which is tailored to the SPA and designed to be of use for operational monitoring and forecasting purposes. Using this index, we analyse the climatology and trends of the rainy season in the SPA. We find that the rainy season starts roughly between September and January with durations between 3 and 8 months. Both onset and duration show a pronounced northeast‐southwest gradient, regions closer to the Amazon Basin have a considerably longer rainy season. The inter‐annual variability of the onset is very high, that is, 2–5 months depending on the station, while the end of the rainy season shows a much lower variability (i.e., 1.5–3 months). The spatial patterns of total precipitation amount and dry spells within the rainy season are only weakly related to its timing. Trends in rainy season characteristics since 1965 are mostly weak and not significant, but generally indicate a tendency towards a shortening of the rainy season in the whole study area due to a later onset and an increase in precipitation sums during the rainy season in the northwestern study area.
... Precipitation distribution is highly seasonal, marked by a wet season in austral summer (November to March) when the Bolivian High generates easterly flow transporting moisture from the Amazon and a dry season in austral winter (April to October) due to strong westerlies (Drenkhan et al., 2018). At interannual timescale, ENSO represents an important driver of rainfall variability with dry conditions during warm phase (El Niño) events and an opposite behavior during the cold phase (La Niña) events (Rau et al., 2017;Rosas et al., 2016). However, the ENSO phenomenon and its feedback are not clearly understood and superimpose with other climatic features such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (Vuille et al., 2008). ...
Study region: Vilcanota-Urubamba river basin, Southern Peru.
Study focus: Hydraulic infrastructure plays a fundamental role for energy production, drinking and irrigation water storage and flood control in regions with seasonal river flow. The high-Andean Lake Sibinacocha has been regulated since 1988 to increase energy production of the Machupicchu hydropower plant. In this study, river streamflow changes are evaluated by analyzing precipitation and discharge trends using indicators of hydrologic alteration and ecoflow for natural (1965-1987) and altered (1988-2016) flow regimes.
New hydrological insights for the region: For the altered flow regime, an ecodeficit of about 20% (compared to natural river flow) and an ecosurplus > 30% were found during the wet season (December-February) and dry season (June-August), respectively. These changes have reduced the risk of water shortage (dry season) and flood (wet season) and contribute to increasing water use including hydropower production, irrigation and drinking water. However, river alteration might lead to considerable impacts on riverine ecosystems. Despite major limitations related to data scarcity and complex environmental processes in the basin, our results highlight the usefulness of combined methods of hydrological alteration and ecoflow to effectively evaluate water regime changes in regulated basins. An integrated scientific approach is necessary to address uncertainties and develop meaningful future water availability scenarios that guide hydropower projects with improved water and energy security considering minimal impacts on human and natural systems.
... There is a growing body of literature exploring the potential issues and empirical evidence relating to the use of various CIS approaches specifically for the agriculture sector. This is all in an effort to improve upon the provision and use of these services in the agriculture sphere (Clarkson et al., 2019;Dayamba et al., 2018;Haigh et al., 2015;McKune et al., 2018;Rosas et al., 2016). Some recent studies have attempted systematic approaches and literature synthesis to analyze the use of CIS and their effectiveness in various agricultural systems (Bouroncle et al., 2019;Soares et al., 2018). ...
... A study by Sultan et al. (2020), in West African nations and Senegal found that lack of understanding was one of the most important barriers which limits the use of CIS in decisionmaking. To ensure proper interpretation and application of information, end users' background knowledge of CIS packages should be considered (Rosas et al., 2016). Enhancing users' understanding of CIS, including its parameters, limitations and scientific uncertainty is important to increasing its use and effectiveness for decision making across various sectors Vincent et al., 2017). ...
... In this way, the information has the potential to increase farmers' ability to use the information to take action (s), and can contribute to the sustained use of CIS. Studies by Golding et al. (2019); and Rosas et al. (2016) found that in most instances, user requirements are very individual and therefore co-development is necessary in understanding user needs and forecasts should be tailored to meet these based on their geographic reality. These findings imply that if CIS provision is done in consideration of community/individual circumstances, this barrier to the successful use of CIS for agriculture decision-making can be overcome. ...
The use of climate information services (CIS) is widely considered as a key adaptation strategy for the agriculture sector in dealing with the challenges posed by climate variability and climate change. Although there are several examples of CIS programs with varying degrees of success in promoting the use of CIS in the agriculture sector, barriers to its successful use by agricultural decision makers still exist. Through a systematic review structure, this paper synthesizes the wealth of recent literature on climate information services to identify the common factors that influence the use of CIS by farmers and agriculture practitioners. The synthesis identified 22 factors, which were discussed under three (3) thematic areas, socio-cultural and demographic issues; programming mechanism; and institutional support and resource allocation for communities. Participation and engagement were the most readily identified in the literature synthesis and was found to be a key enabler to the use of CIS for agriculture decision making. Other distinguishing factors were related to trust in and credibility of CIS and CIS providers; and multi-modal communication channels; timely delivery of CIS. Key barriers to the use of CIS included gender inequality; lack of resources and poor infrastructure; and lack of trust in CIS and CIS providers. The factors identified in this review can be used by climate information providers as a guide to ensure the successful utilization of CIS information products and programs by farmers and other agriculture practitioners.
... Understanding climatic-related information transfer processes therefore becomes crucial to detecting any possible deficiencies and trying to improve the delivery of this information, which would help farmers to implement mitigation and adaptation strategies and build up their resilience. This is crucial in the context of this study, given the complexity of climatic risk scenarios in Peru and the fact that climate adaptation tools need to be adapted to the context, i.e. to take into account local conditions (Daron, 2014;Rosas et al., 2016). ...
CONTEXT
In the last few years, the effects of climate change have impacted heavily on the agricultural sector, particularly in developing countries provided their high vulnerability. In this sense, knowledge and information transference could act as a strategic support service to improve the resilience of their farming systems, as this would help farmers to adapt and take advantage of the new scenarios brought by climate change, as well as to take preventive actions.
OBJECTIVE
The aim of this study was to understand the structure of the interactions between farmers and institutions of the National Agrarian Innovation System of Peru regarding the transfer of information on preventing the effects of extreme weather events. To do so, we aim to understand how farmers and institutions are connected and how the climatic and farming systems' particularities of the territories, the main roles of the institutions and the media through which farmers get the information from each of them could influence such information transfer processes.
METHODS
The structure of interactions between institutions and farmers is modelled for the period 2016–2019 by means of the Latent Block Modelling clustering algorithm. Given the differences in size, resources and practices between smallholders and large-scale farmers, the relationships between them and the institutions are modelled and analysed separately.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
This study identifies how actors involved in preventive information transfer in the National Agrarian Innovation System of Peru are connected, quantifies their relevance and detects deficiencies in such transfer processes. Results show that less than 13% of smallholders and 18% of large-scale farmers in Peru are getting this information, which is mainly transferred by the TV and the radio (non-specialized media) and mostly only by one governmental institution. Additionally, we detected some groups of farmers who rely on other institutions too, with regional differences in the access to information. Results suggest that there is room for improvement regarding the transfer of information on preventing extreme weather events.
SIGNIFICANCE
The results obtained and their discussion could be particularly useful to help in the design of policies focused on improving the efficiency and effectiveness of climatic-related information transfer. In the end, this would help to improve the resilience of Peruvian farmers against climate change and thus, to strengthen the Peruvian agricultural sector.
... Essa base deveria atender aos grupos de detecção, atribuição e avaliação dos modelos, principalmente em áreas urbanas tropicais ao redor do mundo, como na África, América Latina (ou especificamente na Amazônia brasileira) e Oriente Médio (Lucas et al, 2021). As razões para a insuficiência de dados são os problemas da irregular e rarefeita distribuição geográfica das estações de monitoramento e a dificuldade de tratamento de dados brutos em um banco de dados global que limitam seu alcance e capacidade de atualizações (Rosas et al., 2016). ...
... E, mesmo quando há interrupções na série de dados de um período, é possível estimar os parâmetros, apresentando uma interface amigável com o usuário no cálculo de índices de extremos climáticos. (Rosas et al., 2016). Contudo, os extremos são sensíveis à escala, cuja representatividade espacial é baseada em valores em pontos e em grade (Alexsander, 2016). ...
Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo analisar a variabilidade e a tendência de variáveis meteorológicas no longo prazo para caracterizar o clima urbano da cidade de Macapá-AP. Compreender a variabilidade dos índices climáticos em ambientes urbanos tende a mostrar possíveis interferências na qualidade de vida dos moradores locais, bem como torna possível comparar a realidade das cidades amazônicas em um contexto regional, nacional e mundial, contribuindo ao debate acadêmico. No presente caso as variáveis-chave são a temperatura do ar e a precipitação pluviométrica. A metodologia consiste nas seguintes etapas: a) coleta e consistência da série de dados por um período contínuo de 52 anos para o Estado do Amapá (1968 – 2020), b) a utilização do aplicativo RClimDex 1.1/IPCC para estimar as variações e as tendências climáticas locais utilizando-se 27 parâmetros climáticos extremos previstos pela equipe de peritos do CCI/CLIVAR e Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI). Os resultados obtidos acusaram treze indicadores estatísticos significativos (p<0,05), sugerindo tendência generalizada da elevação da temperatura média do ar na zona urbana da cidade. Como consequência, estes indicadores mostraram não somente uma significativa elevação das temperaturas máximas, médias e mínimas, mas também quais são os indicadores mais coerentemente associados com tendências de aquecimento temporal de cidades amazônicas, tanto para períodos diurnos quanto para períodos noturnos. Esse comportamento dos indicadores confirma a hipótese de predisposição a formação de ilha de calor em Macapá. Esta tendência mudou significativamente a partir de 2010. Index of Long Term Climate Trends in Urban Area in the Eastern AmazonA B S T R A C T This research aims to analyze the variability and trend of meteorological variables in the long term to characterize the urban climate of the city of Macapá-AP. Understanding the variability of climate indices in urban environments reveals possible interferences in the quality of life of the inhabitants, especially in urban locations. However, it has been relatively difficult to quantify trends in historical series that reliably represent climate indices relevant to the reality of Amazonian cities, both at a local and regional level. In the present case, the key variables analyzed were air temperature and rainfall. The methodology followed the following steps: a) collection and consistency of the data series over a continuous period of 52 years for the State of Amapá (1968–2020), b) using the data series by the RClimDex 1.1/IPCC application to estimate the local climate variations and trends using 27 extreme weather parameters predicted by the CCI/CLIVAR and Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI) team of experts. The results showed thirteen significant statistical indicators (p<0.05), suggesting a general trend towards an increase in the average air temperature in the urban area of the city. As a consequence, these indicators showed not only a significant increase in maximum, average and minimum temperatures, but also the indicators most coherently associated with temporal warming trends in Amazonian cities. So many that these effects seem to affect both the day and night periods, confirming the hypothesis of a predisposition to the formation of an urban heat island, with a significant change in this trend from 2010 onwards. Keywords: RClimDex 1.1, climate change indice, Macapá, Amapá
... The lack of investment from the SADC NMHSs in climate modelling is not an isolated case in the world. Other NMHSs in the developing world such as the Caribbean and central America have also relegated climate modelling (especially climate projection) to the second plan (Rosas et al., 2016;Vogel et al., 2017;Mahon et al., 2019). Due to the existence of other competing priorities, the major focus of NMHSs in the developing nations is the provision of historical data and weather and climate information at a shorter time scale (days to a season), hence the provision of climate change projections is given less importance (Mahon et al., 2019). ...
Numerical weather predictions (NWP) and climate modelling activities underpin the generation of climate services to different stakeholders. In this study we assess the capabilities of National Hydrological and Meteorological Services (NMHSs) of the SADC region in performing NWP and climate modelling activities in support of generation of science-based climate information to the ever-growing number of stakeholders in the region. We first administered an online questionnaire to 15 SADC NMHSs gauging their status in terms of modelling capabilities. The online questionnaire was then followed by site visits to verify the online responses. Finally, we convened a validation workshop with representatives from all visited NMHSs. The results from the survey revealed a great disparity in the region in terms of capacity for performing NWP and climate modelling activities. Only 60% of the NMHSs in the region are either running or testing NWP models. Climate modelling activities are relegated to the second plan as only about 20% of NMHSs are dynamically downscaling seasonal forecasts and generating climate change projections. The challenges impeding running NWP and climate models in the SADC NMHSs are many and include lack of appropriate infrastructure (hardware and software), inadequate meteorological telecommunications and communication systems for rapid data exchange, lack of qualified staff, and insufficient budget to cater for acquisition and maintenance of meteorological equipment. More investment in the Meteorological sector is needed for NMHSs in the SADC region to provide timely and accurate climate information.
... Climate services (herein, CS) are promoted to support decision-making process in order to better prepare for and adapt to the risks and opportunities of climate variability and change [1]. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the role of CS in climate change mitigation and adaptation has been the subject of research, especially in the four priority areas of focus for the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) [2]: (i) health [3,4]; (ii) agriculture [5][6][7][8]; and food security; (iii) water and energy; and (iv) disaster risk reduction. Examples of CS for agriculture can be found in Mali and Senegal, among other countries, where a new approach has been created to develop climate information services. ...
This paper extends the work of previous research by investigating surfing practices and surf-recreation companies from a behavioral perspective. The study’s main aim is to gain insights into the role of meteorological/climatological information in decision-making related to the surf-tourism activities market. This information was gathered employing an online survey that asked respondents about where they surf and how they check forecasts for surfing. Climate services (CS) are promoted to support the decision-making process to better prepare for and adapt to the risks and opportunities of climate variability and change. The current market for CS is still in its early stages. In this paper, we report the findings from our recent investigation into the actual and potential market for CS for the Iberian Peninsula surf-tourism sector. Based on surfers’ and surf companies’ demands, it was found that an improved surfing climate service (herein, SCS) will have clear implications in the management of these tourism areas and provide insights into whether surfing activities may be successful. At the same time, such services can help to manage adaptive actions in regard to the impacts of climate change in surfing areas.
... The overall goal of Climandes was to support SENAMHI in the implementation of the core elements necessary for the consistent provision of climate services. The first phase (2012-2015, e.g., Rosas et al., 2016) dealt with quality control and homogenization of climate data and targeted training. Further, SENAMHI established a broad communication strategy through the creation of a specialized network of journalists, diverse climate fora, and the collation of a user database. ...
... Further, SENAMHI established a broad communication strategy through the creation of a specialized network of journalists, diverse climate fora, and the collation of a user database. A demand study revealed current needs regarding climate and weather information, and showed that there is a high interest in forecasts at the seasonal scale (Rosas et al., 2016), which shaped the direction of the second phase of the project. ...
... The demand study performed towards the end of the first phase of Climandes revealed user requirements related to the accuracy, resolution, and timeliness of the provided information, and highlighted the need for predictions at the seasonal scale (Rosas et al., 2016). This exchange with the users thereby determined an important technical focus of the projects' second phase. ...
The development and dissemination of weather and climate information is crucial to improve people’s resilience and adaptability to climate variability and change. The impacts of climate variability and change are generally stronger for disadvantaged population groups due to their limited adaptive and coping capacities. For instance,
smallholder farmers living in remote areas such as the southern Peruvian Andes suffer strongly from adverse weather and climatic events such as droughts or frost. The project Climandes aimed at providing high-quality climate services in support of the agricultural sector in southern Peru by implementing the guidelines of the
Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS).
In Climandes, a two-fold challenge was tackled: the co-development of climate services by building up a continuous dialogue between the information provider (in this case the Peruvian national meteorological and hydrological service (NMHS)) and potential users; and the production of climate services through international cooperation. To this end, the NMHSs of Peru (SENAMHI) and Switzerland (MeteoSwiss) worked closely together
to tackle issues ranging from the treatment of climate data to ensure the provision of reliable information to establishing continuous interaction with different user groups. In this paper, we postulate that this approach of close collaboration, the so-called twinning of the two NMHSs, was key for the projects’ success and contributed to strengthening the Peruvian NMHS institutionally and procedurally. This project overview guides its reader
through the approach, main achievements, and conclusions regarding successes and challenges of the project,
and reflects on some potential improvements for future initiatives.
... Most of the official information products including SESAŃs food security information bulletin "PronósticoSAN" only make a broad differentiation between regions in their data analysis and recommendations. The spatial scale of information is an important aspect that has been identified as a barrier to climate information use for decision-makers in Guatemala (Bouroncle et al., 2017) and elsewhere (Rosas et al., 2016). During our study we observed that in different municipalities, locally produced information about rainfall, damage and loss in grain production or cases of children with acute undernutrition, was produced and used for decision-making. ...
Climate extremes are one of the main drivers of acute food insecurity. In Guatemala, acute food insecurity reaches alarming levels when the usual dry period during the bimodal rainy seasons is extended or starts earlier than expected. Drought has a slow-onset which theoretically leaves sufficient lead-time for addressing impacts on food security. In practice, emergency response to drought is often reactive and arrives late, starting when the crisis is already evolving. Climate services and food security information systems are key ingredients for integrated climate risk and food security management worldwide. In Guatemala, stakeholders broadly agree on the useful-ness of this type of information for decision-making and direct significant efforts towards improving information availability and quality. But the impact of agro-climatic and food security information on decisions is ad hoc or not systematic. Through a mix of qualitative, ethnographic, and participatory methods, we investigated why this situation occurs. We found that different aspects lead to this phenomenon: the impact of drought on food security is mediated by different socio-economic, political, and institutional factors that tend to differ strongly between regions or even communities across the country. This puts special requirements on information provision for decision-making. Information use patterns can be explained by technical, data-related aspects as reliability, timeliness, or accessibility. But only by considering the institutional and organiza-tional context we get a complete understanding on what frames the information-use patterns in climate and food security management in Guatemala. Our research shows that investments in technical aspects of data provision and infrastructure for increased climate and food security management need to address institutional and organizational challenges in order to be effective.
