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The relation among SDVI components and drought aspects (Karavitis et al ., 2011a; 2013; DMCSEE, 2012).
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Drought is a complex natural phenomenon that lacks a universally accepted definition, thus it is difficult to confront holistically. Several efforts have been made towards managing the widespread and catastrophic drought impacts. In this quest, the concept of vulnerability to drought seems to offer some significant potential. In the present attempt...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... part of vulnerability (Bohle, 2001) though sometimes it is conceived as the relation that connects the system to the given hazard (Gallopin, 2003). Generally, the term of vulnerability refers to the factors – in a holistic concept – that affect both the system ’ s likelihood to be harmed and the system ’ s ability to cope (Gallopin, 2006). It has to be stated that drought vulnerability depends both on the sector of concern the drought is applied on (agriculture, society, etc.) and the system of interest as the enabling environment. Such a term may include current infrastructure, water governance practices, management actions, economic level, environmental conditions and existing social relationships and context. Using the presented rationale an effort was made to relate drought impact sectors and vulnerability. Holistic Drought management principles should be followed for such an endeavor. A similar approach has been attempted delineating strategies and tactics for comprehensive drought management by Karavitis (1999a). Since strategies and tactics aim predominately at changing or minimizing drought vulnerability in a spatial and temporal scale through focused responses, the approach has been further elaborated and targeted towards identifying a system ’ s vulnerability components to drought. Such an outcome is presented in Table 1. It is believed that the scheme displayed in Table 1 may lead towards connecting drought impacts with vulnerability, their categorization both in space and in chronological sequence, and at the same time provide a means to enhance decision-making in order to mitigate the multiple and diversified drought effects. In this context a pertinent index may be of essence and the methodological steps for its development are demarcated in the following. Greece has an area of 1,31,957 km with coastlines of 13,676 km and 10,815,197 inhabitants (Census, 2011). It is located in south-eastern Europe and is part of the Mediterranean region. The Mediterranean region as a whole is ecologically fragile and seriously endangered by existing social and economic trends, where water is used mostly in an unsustainable manner (Karavitis & Kerkides, 2002; Vicente-Serrano et al ., 2004, 2010; Llasat-Botija et al ., 2007; Gaume et al ., 2009). In addition, vulnerability raises the question of ecosystem resilience, especially because of periodic extreme events such as droughts and floods, as well as increasing anthropogenic disturbances (Karavitis et al ., 2012a, b). The weather patterns range from hot and dry summers to cool and rainy winters. Thus, combined with the country s mountainous character with extreme morphological disparities, for example in the area of mount Olympus (central Macedonia), where in a distance of only 20 km from the seashore the elevation climbs to 3,000 m, and its high dispersal (due to the great number of islands – more than 3,000), it produces quite a diversity of microclimates, ecosystems and landscapes. This encourages tourism, especially during the summer seasons, which is the area ’ s main economic activity. Agriculture is the second significant economic activity of the country. Agricultural areas occupy almost 38,540 km 2 or 20.38% of the total land area (NationMaster, 2008). Those activities are highly dependent on the available water resources of the country. Such resources may reach 58 Â 10 9 m 3 per year; while almost steadily in recent decades, the country ’ s total water consumption has been about 12% of the total annual water availability (Karavitis, 1999b; Barraque et al ., 2008). This fact could signify that Greece should not ideally present water shortages or any other water stress-related issues. Nevertheless, Greece has not developed the required infrastructure level in order to use to a greater percent its large surface water resources potential, while it overexploits the limited groundwater reserves with the accompanying effects of their contamination and sea-water intrusion (Karavitis, 2008). This makes the country highly dependent on the annual rainfall patterns with the result that any precipitation deficit may cause, most of the time, significant impacts on the economy, societal activities and the environment. A series of such deficits has occurred during recent decades (e.g. 1989 – 90, 1993, 2000, 2003 and 2007) characterizing Greece as drought prone, exposing the economy to threats and leaving it vulnerable to losses (Tsakiris & Vangelis, 2004: Livada & Assimakopoulos, 2007; Loukas et al ., 2007; Vasiliades et al ., 2009). The SDVI is a composite index that has been developed, within the context of the Drought Management Centre Project (DMCSEE), by the Agricultural University of Athens research team as part of its partner obligations. It was first presented during the project ’ s Fifth Meeting and Training at Lasko, Slovenia, on 28 June – 1 July 2011 (Karavitis et al ., 2011a, 2012a, b; DMCSEE, 2012, 2013). Following the rationale elaborated in Table 1, Figure 3 was developed to visualize the relationship among impact sectors and drought vulnerability components. Based on Figure 3, it may be pointed out that the SDVI aims at describing an attempt for a potential integrated estimation of drought vulnerability by enclosing Meteorological, Hydrological, Social and Economic Drought manifestations (Figure 3). Hence, the SDVI includes six components in four categories or aspects as follows. 1. Incorporation of the SPI 6 and SPI 12 values . Wu et al . (2007) reported that in arid and semi-arid regions SPI values with scales up to 12 weeks are distributed non-normally. On the contrary, the 6-month and above scale results in the SPI values being normally distributed. They stated that the SPI user should be careful when adapting short time scale SPI values in such locales. They also pointed out that the discussion of short-term drought in dry climates may be meaningless, since zero rainfall is a normal part of the local climate. A 6-month SPI may be very effective showing the rainfall patterns over distinct seasons, indicating medium-term trends. Hence, the 6 month and above SPI values may also display abnormalities in stream flows and reservoir storage (Tsakiris & Vangelis, 2004). Furthermore, and possibly being a more specific argument, annually arid and semi-arid climatic conditions usually exhibit an extended distinct dry period of at least a few months; thus, the SPI values of 6 months and above time scale seem more useful. All in all, precipitation patterns in most regions usually affect the surface waters, as well as the replenishment of the aquifers. Thus the SPI 12 becomes central, since urban water supply and sometimes irrigation may greatly depend on annual reservoir storage and/or aquifer status (Karavitis et al ., 2012a, b). In this context, SPI 12 may represent mostly the non-agricul- tural water availability (hydropower, households and tourism) and SPI 6 may portray the agricultural (irrigation) availability, respectively, particularly for rain-fed crops. However, it is believed that their mutual incorporation enhances interconnections, operability and may contribute to more sound outcomes. The SPI values are calculated on local scale (based on each meteorological station). 2. Supply and demand that describe the deficits in supplying capacity (including network losses) and in demand coverage based on relevant data. Their magnitude depends on the available quantity of water, existing water consumption patterns, reported uses, and demographic, social and technical development patterns. 3. Impacts that describe the losses transformed into monetary units. Such losses might have been caused by supply – demand deficiencies. Measures on the demand side of the supply-minus-demand economic drought equation have the basic objective to trim the water use of the least unit impact, provided the legal consent conditions permit it. The resulting impacts are primarily focused on economic costs and production losses transferred to the society. The environmental impacts are not analyzed in the current effort, unless they can have a direct monetary representation. It is believed that a more specialized analysis should be applied in order to quantify them in a pertinent research approach. 4. Infrastructure that describes the level of the current in-operation water infrastructure in association with the divergence from the designed performance (magnitude of a deficiency). The terms of infrastructure and supply may be treated with caution, as they may easily trigger some confusion (since, for example, 15% of an infrastructure deficiency may cause a proportional deficit in supply), but the main role of the pertinent factor is to picture the infrastructure status that correlates to the drought hazard estimation. For the index application, the six components portrayed in Figure 3 were classified into the following vulnerability categories according to their performance on a 0 to 3 scale presented in Table 2. The central premise for such a scaling was the attempt to quantify the various components in a simple and practical manner based on the pertinent literature and in an effort to express supply and demand deficits, economic impacts evaluation and infrastructure appraisals during drought incidents (DMCSEE, 2012). The SPI classification in relation to vulnerability levels was more straightforward, since it is a standardized index and may analogically relate to pertinent vulnerability levels. The final vulnerability value per area is calculated by the average scaled value of the components as presented in Equation (2) (Karavitis et al ., 2011a, 2013; DMCSEE, ...
Context 2
... the limited groundwater reserves with the accompanying effects of their contamination and sea-water intrusion (Karavitis, 2008). This makes the country highly dependent on the annual rainfall patterns with the result that any precipitation deficit may cause, most of the time, significant impacts on the economy, societal activities and the environment. A series of such deficits has occurred during recent decades (e.g. 1989 – 90, 1993, 2000, 2003 and 2007) characterizing Greece as drought prone, exposing the economy to threats and leaving it vulnerable to losses (Tsakiris & Vangelis, 2004: Livada & Assimakopoulos, 2007; Loukas et al ., 2007; Vasiliades et al ., 2009). The SDVI is a composite index that has been developed, within the context of the Drought Management Centre Project (DMCSEE), by the Agricultural University of Athens research team as part of its partner obligations. It was first presented during the project ’ s Fifth Meeting and Training at Lasko, Slovenia, on 28 June – 1 July 2011 (Karavitis et al ., 2011a, 2012a, b; DMCSEE, 2012, 2013). Following the rationale elaborated in Table 1, Figure 3 was developed to visualize the relationship among impact sectors and drought vulnerability components. Based on Figure 3, it may be pointed out that the SDVI aims at describing an attempt for a potential integrated estimation of drought vulnerability by enclosing Meteorological, Hydrological, Social and Economic Drought manifestations (Figure 3). Hence, the SDVI includes six components in four categories or aspects as follows. 1. Incorporation of the SPI 6 and SPI 12 values . Wu et al . (2007) reported that in arid and semi-arid regions SPI values with scales up to 12 weeks are distributed non-normally. On the contrary, the 6-month and above scale results in the SPI values being normally distributed. They stated that the SPI user should be careful when adapting short time scale SPI values in such locales. They also pointed out that the discussion of short-term drought in dry climates may be meaningless, since zero rainfall is a normal part of the local climate. A 6-month SPI may be very effective showing the rainfall patterns over distinct seasons, indicating medium-term trends. Hence, the 6 month and above SPI values may also display abnormalities in stream flows and reservoir storage (Tsakiris & Vangelis, 2004). Furthermore, and possibly being a more specific argument, annually arid and semi-arid climatic conditions usually exhibit an extended distinct dry period of at least a few months; thus, the SPI values of 6 months and above time scale seem more useful. All in all, precipitation patterns in most regions usually affect the surface waters, as well as the replenishment of the aquifers. Thus the SPI 12 becomes central, since urban water supply and sometimes irrigation may greatly depend on annual reservoir storage and/or aquifer status (Karavitis et al ., 2012a, b). In this context, SPI 12 may represent mostly the non-agricul- tural water availability (hydropower, households and tourism) and SPI 6 may portray the agricultural (irrigation) availability, respectively, particularly for rain-fed crops. However, it is believed that their mutual incorporation enhances interconnections, operability and may contribute to more sound outcomes. The SPI values are calculated on local scale (based on each meteorological station). 2. Supply and demand that describe the deficits in supplying capacity (including network losses) and in demand coverage based on relevant data. Their magnitude depends on the available quantity of water, existing water consumption patterns, reported uses, and demographic, social and technical development patterns. 3. Impacts that describe the losses transformed into monetary units. Such losses might have been caused by supply – demand deficiencies. Measures on the demand side of the supply-minus-demand economic drought equation have the basic objective to trim the water use of the least unit impact, provided the legal consent conditions permit it. The resulting impacts are primarily focused on economic costs and production losses transferred to the society. The environmental impacts are not analyzed in the current effort, unless they can have a direct monetary representation. It is believed that a more specialized analysis should be applied in order to quantify them in a pertinent research approach. 4. Infrastructure that describes the level of the current in-operation water infrastructure in association with the divergence from the designed performance (magnitude of a deficiency). The terms of infrastructure and supply may be treated with caution, as they may easily trigger some confusion (since, for example, 15% of an infrastructure deficiency may cause a proportional deficit in supply), but the main role of the pertinent factor is to picture the infrastructure status that correlates to the drought hazard estimation. For the index application, the six components portrayed in Figure 3 were classified into the following vulnerability categories according to their performance on a 0 to 3 scale presented in Table 2. The central premise for such a scaling was the attempt to quantify the various components in a simple and practical manner based on the pertinent literature and in an effort to express supply and demand deficits, economic impacts evaluation and infrastructure appraisals during drought incidents (DMCSEE, 2012). The SPI classification in relation to vulnerability levels was more straightforward, since it is a standardized index and may analogically relate to pertinent vulnerability levels. The final vulnerability value per area is calculated by the average scaled value of the components as presented in Equation (2) (Karavitis et al ., 2011a, 2013; DMCSEE, ...
Context 3
... hazard (Gallopin, 2003). Generally, the term of vulnerability refers to the factors – in a holistic concept – that affect both the system ’ s likelihood to be harmed and the system ’ s ability to cope (Gallopin, 2006). It has to be stated that drought vulnerability depends both on the sector of concern the drought is applied on (agriculture, society, etc.) and the system of interest as the enabling environment. Such a term may include current infrastructure, water governance practices, management actions, economic level, environmental conditions and existing social relationships and context. Using the presented rationale an effort was made to relate drought impact sectors and vulnerability. Holistic Drought management principles should be followed for such an endeavor. A similar approach has been attempted delineating strategies and tactics for comprehensive drought management by Karavitis (1999a). Since strategies and tactics aim predominately at changing or minimizing drought vulnerability in a spatial and temporal scale through focused responses, the approach has been further elaborated and targeted towards identifying a system ’ s vulnerability components to drought. Such an outcome is presented in Table 1. It is believed that the scheme displayed in Table 1 may lead towards connecting drought impacts with vulnerability, their categorization both in space and in chronological sequence, and at the same time provide a means to enhance decision-making in order to mitigate the multiple and diversified drought effects. In this context a pertinent index may be of essence and the methodological steps for its development are demarcated in the following. Greece has an area of 1,31,957 km with coastlines of 13,676 km and 10,815,197 inhabitants (Census, 2011). It is located in south-eastern Europe and is part of the Mediterranean region. The Mediterranean region as a whole is ecologically fragile and seriously endangered by existing social and economic trends, where water is used mostly in an unsustainable manner (Karavitis & Kerkides, 2002; Vicente-Serrano et al ., 2004, 2010; Llasat-Botija et al ., 2007; Gaume et al ., 2009). In addition, vulnerability raises the question of ecosystem resilience, especially because of periodic extreme events such as droughts and floods, as well as increasing anthropogenic disturbances (Karavitis et al ., 2012a, b). The weather patterns range from hot and dry summers to cool and rainy winters. Thus, combined with the country s mountainous character with extreme morphological disparities, for example in the area of mount Olympus (central Macedonia), where in a distance of only 20 km from the seashore the elevation climbs to 3,000 m, and its high dispersal (due to the great number of islands – more than 3,000), it produces quite a diversity of microclimates, ecosystems and landscapes. This encourages tourism, especially during the summer seasons, which is the area ’ s main economic activity. Agriculture is the second significant economic activity of the country. Agricultural areas occupy almost 38,540 km 2 or 20.38% of the total land area (NationMaster, 2008). Those activities are highly dependent on the available water resources of the country. Such resources may reach 58 Â 10 9 m 3 per year; while almost steadily in recent decades, the country ’ s total water consumption has been about 12% of the total annual water availability (Karavitis, 1999b; Barraque et al ., 2008). This fact could signify that Greece should not ideally present water shortages or any other water stress-related issues. Nevertheless, Greece has not developed the required infrastructure level in order to use to a greater percent its large surface water resources potential, while it overexploits the limited groundwater reserves with the accompanying effects of their contamination and sea-water intrusion (Karavitis, 2008). This makes the country highly dependent on the annual rainfall patterns with the result that any precipitation deficit may cause, most of the time, significant impacts on the economy, societal activities and the environment. A series of such deficits has occurred during recent decades (e.g. 1989 – 90, 1993, 2000, 2003 and 2007) characterizing Greece as drought prone, exposing the economy to threats and leaving it vulnerable to losses (Tsakiris & Vangelis, 2004: Livada & Assimakopoulos, 2007; Loukas et al ., 2007; Vasiliades et al ., 2009). The SDVI is a composite index that has been developed, within the context of the Drought Management Centre Project (DMCSEE), by the Agricultural University of Athens research team as part of its partner obligations. It was first presented during the project ’ s Fifth Meeting and Training at Lasko, Slovenia, on 28 June – 1 July 2011 (Karavitis et al ., 2011a, 2012a, b; DMCSEE, 2012, 2013). Following the rationale elaborated in Table 1, Figure 3 was developed to visualize the relationship among impact sectors and drought vulnerability components. Based on Figure 3, it may be pointed out that the SDVI aims at describing an attempt for a potential integrated estimation of drought vulnerability by enclosing Meteorological, Hydrological, Social and Economic Drought manifestations (Figure 3). Hence, the SDVI includes six components in four categories or aspects as follows. 1. Incorporation of the SPI 6 and SPI 12 values . Wu et al . (2007) reported that in arid and semi-arid regions SPI values with scales up to 12 weeks are distributed non-normally. On the contrary, the 6-month and above scale results in the SPI values being normally distributed. They stated that the SPI user should be careful when adapting short time scale SPI values in such locales. They also pointed out that the discussion of short-term drought in dry climates may be meaningless, since zero rainfall is a normal part of the local climate. A 6-month SPI may be very effective showing the rainfall patterns over distinct seasons, indicating medium-term trends. Hence, the 6 month and above SPI values may also display abnormalities in stream flows and reservoir storage (Tsakiris & Vangelis, 2004). Furthermore, and possibly being a more specific argument, annually arid and semi-arid climatic conditions usually exhibit an extended distinct dry period of at least a few months; thus, the SPI values of 6 months and above time scale seem more useful. All in all, precipitation patterns in most regions usually affect the surface waters, as well as the replenishment of the aquifers. Thus the SPI 12 becomes central, since urban water supply and sometimes irrigation may greatly depend on annual reservoir storage and/or aquifer status (Karavitis et al ., 2012a, b). In this context, SPI 12 may represent mostly the non-agricul- tural water availability (hydropower, households and tourism) and SPI 6 may portray the agricultural (irrigation) availability, respectively, particularly for rain-fed crops. However, it is believed that their mutual incorporation enhances interconnections, operability and may contribute to more sound outcomes. The SPI values are calculated on local scale (based on each meteorological station). 2. Supply and demand that describe the deficits in supplying capacity (including network losses) and in demand coverage based on relevant data. Their magnitude depends on the available quantity of water, existing water consumption patterns, reported uses, and demographic, social and technical development patterns. 3. Impacts that describe the losses transformed into monetary units. Such losses might have been caused by supply – demand deficiencies. Measures on the demand side of the supply-minus-demand economic drought equation have the basic objective to trim the water use of the least unit impact, provided the legal consent conditions permit it. The resulting impacts are primarily focused on economic costs and production losses transferred to the society. The environmental impacts are not analyzed in the current effort, unless they can have a direct monetary representation. It is believed that a more specialized analysis should be applied in order to quantify them in a pertinent research approach. 4. Infrastructure that describes the level of the current in-operation water infrastructure in association with the divergence from the designed performance (magnitude of a deficiency). The terms of infrastructure and supply may be treated with caution, as they may easily trigger some confusion (since, for example, 15% of an infrastructure deficiency may cause a proportional deficit in supply), but the main role of the pertinent factor is to picture the infrastructure status that correlates to the drought hazard estimation. For the index application, the six components portrayed in Figure 3 were classified into the following vulnerability categories according to their performance on a 0 to 3 scale presented in Table 2. The central premise for such a scaling was the attempt to quantify the various components in a simple and practical manner based on the pertinent literature and in an effort to express supply and demand deficits, economic impacts evaluation and infrastructure appraisals during drought incidents (DMCSEE, 2012). The SPI classification in relation to vulnerability levels was more straightforward, since it is a standardized index and may analogically relate to pertinent vulnerability levels. The final vulnerability value per area is calculated by the average scaled value of the components as presented in Equation (2) (Karavitis et al ., 2011a, 2013; DMCSEE, ...
Context 4
... has to be stated that drought vulnerability depends both on the sector of concern the drought is applied on (agriculture, society, etc.) and the system of interest as the enabling environment. Such a term may include current infrastructure, water governance practices, management actions, economic level, environmental conditions and existing social relationships and context. Using the presented rationale an effort was made to relate drought impact sectors and vulnerability. Holistic Drought management principles should be followed for such an endeavor. A similar approach has been attempted delineating strategies and tactics for comprehensive drought management by Karavitis (1999a). Since strategies and tactics aim predominately at changing or minimizing drought vulnerability in a spatial and temporal scale through focused responses, the approach has been further elaborated and targeted towards identifying a system ’ s vulnerability components to drought. Such an outcome is presented in Table 1. It is believed that the scheme displayed in Table 1 may lead towards connecting drought impacts with vulnerability, their categorization both in space and in chronological sequence, and at the same time provide a means to enhance decision-making in order to mitigate the multiple and diversified drought effects. In this context a pertinent index may be of essence and the methodological steps for its development are demarcated in the following. Greece has an area of 1,31,957 km with coastlines of 13,676 km and 10,815,197 inhabitants (Census, 2011). It is located in south-eastern Europe and is part of the Mediterranean region. The Mediterranean region as a whole is ecologically fragile and seriously endangered by existing social and economic trends, where water is used mostly in an unsustainable manner (Karavitis & Kerkides, 2002; Vicente-Serrano et al ., 2004, 2010; Llasat-Botija et al ., 2007; Gaume et al ., 2009). In addition, vulnerability raises the question of ecosystem resilience, especially because of periodic extreme events such as droughts and floods, as well as increasing anthropogenic disturbances (Karavitis et al ., 2012a, b). The weather patterns range from hot and dry summers to cool and rainy winters. Thus, combined with the country s mountainous character with extreme morphological disparities, for example in the area of mount Olympus (central Macedonia), where in a distance of only 20 km from the seashore the elevation climbs to 3,000 m, and its high dispersal (due to the great number of islands – more than 3,000), it produces quite a diversity of microclimates, ecosystems and landscapes. This encourages tourism, especially during the summer seasons, which is the area ’ s main economic activity. Agriculture is the second significant economic activity of the country. Agricultural areas occupy almost 38,540 km 2 or 20.38% of the total land area (NationMaster, 2008). Those activities are highly dependent on the available water resources of the country. Such resources may reach 58 Â 10 9 m 3 per year; while almost steadily in recent decades, the country ’ s total water consumption has been about 12% of the total annual water availability (Karavitis, 1999b; Barraque et al ., 2008). This fact could signify that Greece should not ideally present water shortages or any other water stress-related issues. Nevertheless, Greece has not developed the required infrastructure level in order to use to a greater percent its large surface water resources potential, while it overexploits the limited groundwater reserves with the accompanying effects of their contamination and sea-water intrusion (Karavitis, 2008). This makes the country highly dependent on the annual rainfall patterns with the result that any precipitation deficit may cause, most of the time, significant impacts on the economy, societal activities and the environment. A series of such deficits has occurred during recent decades (e.g. 1989 – 90, 1993, 2000, 2003 and 2007) characterizing Greece as drought prone, exposing the economy to threats and leaving it vulnerable to losses (Tsakiris & Vangelis, 2004: Livada & Assimakopoulos, 2007; Loukas et al ., 2007; Vasiliades et al ., 2009). The SDVI is a composite index that has been developed, within the context of the Drought Management Centre Project (DMCSEE), by the Agricultural University of Athens research team as part of its partner obligations. It was first presented during the project ’ s Fifth Meeting and Training at Lasko, Slovenia, on 28 June – 1 July 2011 (Karavitis et al ., 2011a, 2012a, b; DMCSEE, 2012, 2013). Following the rationale elaborated in Table 1, Figure 3 was developed to visualize the relationship among impact sectors and drought vulnerability components. Based on Figure 3, it may be pointed out that the SDVI aims at describing an attempt for a potential integrated estimation of drought vulnerability by enclosing Meteorological, Hydrological, Social and Economic Drought manifestations (Figure 3). Hence, the SDVI includes six components in four categories or aspects as follows. 1. Incorporation of the SPI 6 and SPI 12 values . Wu et al . (2007) reported that in arid and semi-arid regions SPI values with scales up to 12 weeks are distributed non-normally. On the contrary, the 6-month and above scale results in the SPI values being normally distributed. They stated that the SPI user should be careful when adapting short time scale SPI values in such locales. They also pointed out that the discussion of short-term drought in dry climates may be meaningless, since zero rainfall is a normal part of the local climate. A 6-month SPI may be very effective showing the rainfall patterns over distinct seasons, indicating medium-term trends. Hence, the 6 month and above SPI values may also display abnormalities in stream flows and reservoir storage (Tsakiris & Vangelis, 2004). Furthermore, and possibly being a more specific argument, annually arid and semi-arid climatic conditions usually exhibit an extended distinct dry period of at least a few months; thus, the SPI values of 6 months and above time scale seem more useful. All in all, precipitation patterns in most regions usually affect the surface waters, as well as the replenishment of the aquifers. Thus the SPI 12 becomes central, since urban water supply and sometimes irrigation may greatly depend on annual reservoir storage and/or aquifer status (Karavitis et al ., 2012a, b). In this context, SPI 12 may represent mostly the non-agricul- tural water availability (hydropower, households and tourism) and SPI 6 may portray the agricultural (irrigation) availability, respectively, particularly for rain-fed crops. However, it is believed that their mutual incorporation enhances interconnections, operability and may contribute to more sound outcomes. The SPI values are calculated on local scale (based on each meteorological station). 2. Supply and demand that describe the deficits in supplying capacity (including network losses) and in demand coverage based on relevant data. Their magnitude depends on the available quantity of water, existing water consumption patterns, reported uses, and demographic, social and technical development patterns. 3. Impacts that describe the losses transformed into monetary units. Such losses might have been caused by supply – demand deficiencies. Measures on the demand side of the supply-minus-demand economic drought equation have the basic objective to trim the water use of the least unit impact, provided the legal consent conditions permit it. The resulting impacts are primarily focused on economic costs and production losses transferred to the society. The environmental impacts are not analyzed in the current effort, unless they can have a direct monetary representation. It is believed that a more specialized analysis should be applied in order to quantify them in a pertinent research approach. 4. Infrastructure that describes the level of the current in-operation water infrastructure in association with the divergence from the designed performance (magnitude of a deficiency). The terms of infrastructure and supply may be treated with caution, as they may easily trigger some confusion (since, for example, 15% of an infrastructure deficiency may cause a proportional deficit in supply), but the main role of the pertinent factor is to picture the infrastructure status that correlates to the drought hazard estimation. For the index application, the six components portrayed in Figure 3 were classified into the following vulnerability categories according to their performance on a 0 to 3 scale presented in Table 2. The central premise for such a scaling was the attempt to quantify the various components in a simple and practical manner based on the pertinent literature and in an effort to express supply and demand deficits, economic impacts evaluation and infrastructure appraisals during drought incidents (DMCSEE, 2012). The SPI classification in relation to vulnerability levels was more straightforward, since it is a standardized index and may analogically relate to pertinent vulnerability levels. The final vulnerability value per area is calculated by the average scaled value of the components as presented in Equation (2) (Karavitis et al ., 2011a, 2013; DMCSEE, ...
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Citations
... Το πρωταρχικό εμπόδιο στη χάραξη πολιτικών για την άμβλυνση των επιπτώσεων της ξηρασίας έγκειται στη διαμόρφωση ολοκληρωμένων και αποτελεσματικών σχεδίων διαχείρισης. Τα σχέδια αυτά οφείλουν να βασίζονται τόσο σε βραχυπρόθεσμες όσο και σε μακροπρόθεσμες προληπτικές προσεγγίσεις, που περιλαμβάνουν δράσεις σε διαφορετικά χρονικά διαστήματαπριν, κατά τη διάρκεια και μετά τα γεγονότα ξηρασίας (Εικόνα 1) - (Grigg και Βλάχος 1990;Karavitis 1999-Τσεσμελής, 2010-Karavitis et al. 2012-Karavitis et al. 2014. Η κατασκευή αυτών των στρατηγικών εξαρτάται από τη συνήθη παρατήρηση και ανάλυση των μετεωρολογικών δεδομένων, με πρωταρχική έμφαση στη χρησιμοποίηση σχετικών δεικτών. ...
Η ξηρασία είναι ένα επαναλαμβανόμενο φυσικό φαινόμενο με σημαντικές κοινωνικοοικονομικές και περιβαλλοντικές επιπτώσεις. Η ικανότητα ακριβούς χαρτογράφησης και παρακολούθησης των συνθηκών ξηρασίας είναι ζωτικής σημασίας για την αποτελεσματική διαχείριση των υδατικών πόρων και τις στρατηγικές μετριασμού. Η παρούσα μελέτη αποσκοπεί στη χαρτογράφηση των προτύπων ξηρασίας κάνοντας χρήση του Τυποποιημένου Δείκτη Βροχόπτωσης (SPI - Standardized Precipitation Index) στην Ελλάδα σε περιβάλλον Συστημάτων Γεωγραφικών Πληροφοριών (ΣΓΠ). Τα ΣΓΠ παρέχουν ένα ισχυρό εργαλείο για την ενσωμάτωση διαφόρων γεωχωρικών δεδομένων, συμπεριλαμβανομένων κλιματικών, τοπογραφικών και υδρολογικών πληροφοριών, επιτρέποντας μια ολοκληρωμένη αξιολόγηση των συνθηκών ξηρασίας. Αναλύοντας ιστορικά δεδομένα βροχόπτωσης, ο SPI μπορεί να ποσοτικοποιήσει τη ένταση και τη διάρκεια της ξηρασίας σε σχέση με τον μακροπρόθεσμο μέσο όρο βροχόπτωσης. Στην παρούσα μελέτη, περιγράφεται η εκδήλωση του συγκεκριμένου φαινομένου και αναλύονται τα χαρακτηριστικά του (ένταση και διάρκεια – χωρική και χρονική κατανομή) με την εφαρμογή του. Για τον υπολογισμό του δείκτη χρησιμοποιήθηκαν δεδομένα από μετεωρολογικούς σταθμούς κατανεμημένους σε όλη την επικράτεια. Στη συνέχεια, δημιουργήθηκαν χάρτες ξηρασίας με την εφαρμογή γεωστατιστικών μεθόδων. Το χρονικό βήμα που χρησιμοποιήθηκε για τον υπολογισμό και τη χαρτογράφηση του δείκτη επιλέχθηκε στους έξι (6) και τους δώδεκα (12) μήνες. Επιπρόσθετα, οι δευτερογενής επιπτώσεις της ξηρασίας στην φυτοκάλυψη αξιολογήθηκαν από δορυφορικά δεδομένα χρησιμοποιώντας του δείκτες NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) και Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). Οι προκύπτοντες χάρτες ξηρασίας μπορούν να χρησιμεύσουν ως πολύτιμος πόρος για τους υπεύθυνους χάραξης πολιτικής, τους διαχειριστές υδάτων και τα ενδιαφερόμενα μέρη που εμπλέκονται στον σχεδιασμό των υδατικών πόρων και στις διαδικασίες λήψης αποφάσεων. Οι χωρικά σαφείς πληροφορίες που παρέχουν οι χάρτες επιτρέπουν τη στοχευμένη κατανομή των πόρων, την εφαρμογή μέτρων μετριασμού της ξηρασίας και την ανάπτυξη στρατηγικών προσαρμογής στην ξηρασία σε περιφερειακή και τοπική κλίμακα. Συνολικά, η μελέτη αυτή καταδεικνύει τις δυνατότητες της τεχνολογίας ΣΓΠ και των δεικτών στη χαρτογράφηση και παρακολούθηση των συνθηκών ξηρασίας στην Ελλάδα. Η ενσωμάτωση διαφόρων περιβαλλοντικών συνόλων δεδομένων ενισχύει την κατανόηση των πολύπλοκων αλληλεπιδράσεων και παραγόντων που επηρεάζουν την ξηρασία, διευκολύνοντας πιο τεκμηριωμένες και προληπτικές στρατηγικές διαχείρισης των υδάτων ενόψει της αυξανόμενης κλιματικής μεταβλητότητας και των προκλήσεων των ξηρασιών.
... The Mediterranean region, due to its specific morphological, climatic, and atmospheric conditions, is classified as a moderate-and high-emitting region, revealing a strong response to global climate variability [3][4][5]. Moreover, its periods of low rainfall coincide with periods of high temperatures and high water demand, which further complicates the situation [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. Drought is an insidious natural hazard that takes place when the relevant precipitation rate is below the average value for a region for more than one period, resulting in insufficient water supplies for both human activities and environmental standards to be sufficiently covered [10,[14][15][16][17][18]. ...
... Moreover, its periods of low rainfall coincide with periods of high temperatures and high water demand, which further complicates the situation [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. Drought is an insidious natural hazard that takes place when the relevant precipitation rate is below the average value for a region for more than one period, resulting in insufficient water supplies for both human activities and environmental standards to be sufficiently covered [10,[14][15][16][17][18]. Temperature, humidity, and wind speed can contribute to the severity and duration of a drought episode, particularly temperature, because of its increasing importance in a warming world [19,20]. ...
The ever-increasing need for water, the alteration in the climate, and its observed changes over recent years have triggered a lot of research studies associated with the phenomenon of drought. Within the wider geographical region of the Mediterranean, the relevant scientific subject seems to be of great interest, since it is undoubtedly related to a number of severe socio-economic consequences. This present effort focuses on the evolution of this particular phenomenon over time, within the borders of nine different countries in the Eastern Mediterranean (Athens, Greece—Europe; Constantinople, Turkey—Asia; Nicosia, Cyprus—Europe; Jerusalem, Israel—Asia; Amman, Jordan—Asia; Damascus, Syria—Asia; Beirut, Lebanon—Asia; Cairo, Egypt—Africa; and Tripoli Libya—Africa). By applying the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), examining precipitation data at the month level (January 1901 to December 2020), and utilizing the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method, the spatio–temporal variability of drought events in the Eastern Mediterranean area was studied. In Jerusalem, long-term droughts presented a higher than usual volume, in accordance with applying the 12- and 24-month SPI, starting from the mid-20th century. Similarly, the region of Damascus presented a similar pattern to those in Beirut, Amman, and Jerusalem. An upward trend in the frequency of extreme drought events was observed for the last thirty years. The same trend seems to be true in terms of the duration of dry periods. Drought events have also been observed in the central, southern, and eastern regions of Turkey. A downward trend was observed in Cairo based on a trend analysis of its monthly precipitation.
... The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) takes PET into account, but in fact in arid and semi-arid areas where potential evapotranspiration is greater than precipitation, the monthly total PET is actually the amount of water that is not available and therefore cannot be evaporated and transpired. Its use may lead to inaccurate estimates of drought events, such as overestimating droughts [30][31][32][33]. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) is a standardized value that expresses the actual precipitation as a deviation from the probability distribution function of precipitation. ...
... Precipitation distribution is a skewed distribution rather than a normal distribution. Mckee et al. [32] used Gamma probability distribution to describe the distribution changes of precipitation and then obtained SPI values after normal normalization. The calculation steps referred to Zhou Junju, Kalisa and Abdelmalek et al. [34,39,54,56,57]. ...
In northern China, precipitation fluctuates greatly and drought occurs frequently, which mark some of the important threats to agricultural and animal husbandry production. Understanding the meteorological dry-wet change and the evolution law of drought events in northern China has guiding significance for regional disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI), this paper explored the spatio-temporal evolution of meteorological dry-wet in northern China. Our results showed that arid area (AA) and semi-arid area (SAA) in the west showed a trend of wetting at inter-annual and seasonal scales, while humid area (HA) and semi-humid area (SHA) in the east showed a different dry-wet changing trend at different seasons under the background of inter-annual drying. AA and HA showed obvious “reverse fluctuation” characteristics in summer. The drought frequency (DF) and drought intensity (DI) were high in the east and low in the west, and there was no significant difference in drought duration (DD) and drought severity (DS) between east and west. The DD, DS and DI of AA and SAA showed a decreasing trend, while the DD and DS of HA and SHA showed a slight increasing trend, and the DS decreased. In summer and autumn, the main influencing factors of drying in the east and wetting in the west were PNA, WP, PDO and TP1, and the fluctuations of NAO-SOI, NAO-AMO and PNA-NINO3.4 jointly determined the characteristics of SPI3 reverse fluctuations of HA and AA in summer.
... The comparison of SPI and SPEI is made to assess the impact of potential evapotranspiration which is a metric of the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) to determine the drought in the study areas as well as the uncertainty in the results obtained using the SPI. SPI or SPEI values of 6 and 12 months are proposed as more appropriate for denoting droughts in arid and semi-arid regions, applied in several studies (e.g., [76,[80][81][82][83]). Accordingly, the SPI-6, SPEI-6, SPI-12, and SPEI-12 are selected for the drought characterization in Greece. ...
Future changes in drought characteristics in Greece were investigated using dynamically downscaled high-resolution simulations of 5 km. The Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were driven by EC-EARTH output for historical and future periods, under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. For the drought analysis, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were calculated. This work contributed to achieve an improved characterization of the expected high-resolution changes of drought in Greece. Overall, the results indicate that Greece will face severe drought conditions in the upcoming years, particularly under RCP8.5, up to 8/5 y of severity change signal. The results of 6-month timescale indices suggest that more severe and prolonged drought events are expected with an increase of 4 months/5 y, particularly in areas of central and eastern part of the country in near future, and areas of the western parts in far future. The indices obtained in a 12-month timescale for the period 2075–2099 and under RCP8.5 have shown an increase in the mean duration of drought events along the entire country. Drought conditions will be more severe in lowland areas of agricultural interest (e.g., Thessaly and Crete).
... Moreover, FAO [8] estimates that there were USD29 billion in agricultural losses to developing countries between 2005 and 2015 from drought impacts alone. Our knowledge on drought impacts is still limited despite their characterization being essential to plan and manage drought episodes adequately [9][10][11][12]. Van Loon et al. [13] argues that feedbacks between drought and people are not fully understood, making drought management inefficient. ...
... 12, 970 ...
Droughts affect all socio-economic sectors and have negative impacts on the environment. Droughts are expected to increase in frequency and severity due to climate change, which makes their effective management a high priority for policy makers and water managers. Drought Management Plans (DMPs) are a key instrument to deal with droughts and help to prepare for them in a proactive way as a framework for coordinated action before and during droughts. The development of DMPs is still incipient worldwide and their assessment remains limited. In Spain, DMPs at a river basin level were first approved in 2007. Following the legal obligation set in Spanish law, those plans were revised after ten years and a new version was approved in 2018. A content analysis was developed for assessing the 2018 DMPs of eight river basins managed by their corresponding River Basin Authorities, which depend on the Spanish central government. The evaluation criteria were set using the extant scientific literature and official guidelines on drought preparedness and management. The analysis showed that some aspects of the DMPs are especially well-developed, e.g., the distinction between drought and water scarcity, the definition of thresholds to trigger different levels of drought and water scarcity alerts and actions for drought management and coordination. Other issues still need further improvement, especially those related to the analysis of drought impacts, the assessment of vulnerability and the ex-post evaluation of DPM performance.
... Ces déficits impactent in fine le bon fonctionnement d'une société : pertes agricoles, feux de forêt, dégradations des écosystèmes, baisse de la production énergétique, etc. (Aguilera-Klink et al., 2000 ;Wilhite et al., 2007 ;Van Loon et al., 2016a ;Van Loon et al., 2016b ;Guermazi et al., 2019). Contrairement aux crues, il s'agit d'un aléa à cinétique lente (mois ou années) agissant sur de vastes espaces géographiques (bassin versant, pays ou région), ce qui complique la gestion de crise (Karavitis et al., 2014 ;Van Loon, 2015). La sécheresse atmosphérique correspond à une longue période d'absence de pluie pouvant être associée à des conditions de forte évapotranspiration (Senaut, 2015). ...
En climat méditerranéen, l’évapotranspiration potentielle est forte, en particulier durant la saison estivale. Elle coïncide avec une période de faible pluviosité. Si celle-ci perdure durant des phases de forte évapotranspiration, elle peut avoir de graves conséquences sur les activités agricoles très consommatrices en eau pendant leur période de croissance. Une étude de la sécheresse atmosphérique dans le secteur du Gardon est réalisée à partir de l’indicateur des séquences sèches. Premièrement, une étude historique permet d’identifier les grands évènements de sécheresse dans le bassin du Gardon entre 1900 et 2019. Puis une analyse sur l’effet du seuil de pluie pour caractériser les précipitations utiles est proposée. Différentes définitions du jour sec sont testées pour calculer les séquences sèches entre 2000 et 2019. L’utilisation d’un seuil d’évapotranspiration réelle ou d’évapotranspiration potentielle, par rapport à un seuil de 1 mm, modifie à probabilité d’occurrence égale la saisonnalité et la géographie de l’intensité des séquences sèches. Les seuils d’évapotranspiration réelle et d’évapotranspiration potentielle produisent des évènements plus intenses qu’un seuil de 1 mm. L’intensité des séquences sèches est sous-estimée avec un seuil de 1 mm pour les évènements des mois de printemps mais surtout pour ceux de début d’été. Sont identifiés à risque, quel que soit le seuil retenu, les secteurs du sous-bassin de la Salindrenque et la partie la plus aval du bassin du Gardon. Elles sont touchées à probabilité d’occurrence égale par des intensités plus importantes pour les évènements de moyenne et de forte intensité que le reste du bassin. La comparaison des distributions statistiques en fonction du seuil retenu montre que, à défaut d’avoir une valeur d’évapotranspiration réelle pour déterminer les précipitations utiles, le seuil 1 mm reste plus pertinent qu’un seuil d’évapotranspiration potentiel.
... In this context, the central objective of the present work is to find common drivers for the pressures inflicted by drought and desertification as they portrayed by the application of WLDI (Water and Land Degradation Index) in the area. Furthermore, according to the well-known DPSIR (drivers, pressures, state, impact and responses) framework, driving forces are applying pressure on a system [12,[57][58][59]. Thus, the main scope of the current study is to identify the soil and water resources degradation status through the application of the already developed composite index WLDI for the period 1999-2014 [59]. ...
... Finally, the soil and vegetation parameters calculated based on soil mapping and databases according to the Corine Land Cover 2012 [68,69]. The current methodology for the WLDI development has followed the "XERASIA" framework as already described in [58,59,70]. It is important to note again that aridity, which occurs in areas with continuous low rainfall, and as a permanent climatic feature is quite different from temporary water shortages. ...
... The latter show a deviation from the average state, but they are still within the natural variability of the system. In addition, the induced changes such as desertification caused by human activities mostly by misuse of soil and water resources and unstainable cultivation practices must be distinguished from drought which has natural causes [58,59,70]. All such conditions signify water deficits. ...
Natural resources degradation poses multiple challenges, particularly to environmental
and economic processes. It is usually difficult to identify the degree of degradation and the critical vulnerability values in the affected systems. Thus, among other tools, indices (composite indicators) may also describe these complex systems or phenomena. In this approach, the Water and Land Resources Degradation Index was applied to the fifth largest Mediterranean island, Crete, for the 1999–2014 period. The Water and Land Resources Degradation Index uses 11 water and soil resources related indicators: Aridity Index, Water Demand, Drought Impacts, Drought Resistance Water Resources Infrastructure, Land Use Intensity, Soil Parent Material, Plant Cover, Rainfall, Slope,
and Soil Texture. The aim is to identify the sensitive areas to degradation due to anthropogenic interventions and natural processes, as well as their vulnerability status. The results for Crete Island indicate that prolonged water resources shortages due to low average precipitation values or high water demand (especially in the agricultural sector), may significantly affect Water and Land degradation processes. Hence, Water and Land Resources Degradation Index could serve as an extra tool to assist policymakers to improve their decisions to combat Natural Resources degradation.
... The latter makes the country highly dependent on the annual rainfall and temperature patterns, meaning that any water shortage or any unexpected temperature variation may initiate, major impacts on environment (forests, species, etc.) and society. Greece is characterised as drought prone, given that severe droughts have occurred in consequent time periods (e.g., 1989-90, 1993, 2000, 2003 and 2007) (Karavitis, 1998(Karavitis, , 1999Karavitis et al., 2014;Loukas et al., 2007;Livada and Assimakopoulos, 2007;Tsakiris and Vangelis, 2004;Tsesmelis et al., 2019;Vasiliades et al., 2009) affecting all kind of life (humans, animals, plants). Unfortunately, it is still not clear whether the impacts of these extreme events are intensified due to the extreme water deficiency or due to the lack of local or country level contingency planning and drought management (Karavitis 1992(Karavitis , 1998(Karavitis , 1999Karavitis et al., 2012;Tsesmelis et al., 2019). ...
The forest policy in Greece and the current regulatory framework is not efficient in supporting the implementation of sustainability at a satisfactory level. The main scope of this study is to review and present constrains and practices across the sectors of forest and water resources management, flora and fauna biodiversity. The hypothesis is that common practices in the forest field combined with inefficient and obsolete legislation are responsible for delays in the implementation of a national forest policy, which will promote sustainability. A systematic reviewing methodology was applied so to ensure a rigorous and repeatable method of sustainability constraints identification and evaluation. The identification of the constraints can promote the improvement of legislation, the revision of common practices concerning the forest sector and finally can help the forest managers to better understand how to work effectively within legal, regulatory and operational environments deriving from forest policy.
... Such undesirable alterations and/or hazards, such as earthquakes, droughts, and floods, the so-called natural hazards, can present intractable difficulties and complications to human systems. [4][5][6][7][8][9] Today, natural resource degradation generates pressure in the environment, including qualitative and quantitative impacts on water resources, overexploitation, desertification, soil erosion, deforestation, and environmental degradation. This degradation is of increasing societal concern. ...
... However, this is superficial, as the average precipitation in July is usually extremely low (approximately 10 mm); thus, an 80% decrease may lead to extreme drought, whereas it is not significant for the annual average of 700 mm falling predominantly during the winter. 7,16,20 Attica, the region of Athens, had very low available water quantities for supplying westerly reservoirs that created tremendous problems in the water supply. To mitigate this problem, plans were announced for water hauling by ships from the Acheloos River to Athens. ...
... This initial plan was submitted to the Central Water Agency of Greece in 2008. 7,68 However, it has never been implemented and needs to be updated. Unfortunately, this is also the case in several countries; anxiety and panic appear during droughts, while apathy comes as soon as rain returns. ...
The scope of the present research is to assess drought events using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which can provide accurate results of drought features on a spatiotemporal scale for Greece. The climate in Greece is a typical northern Mediterranean, with most of the rainfall events noted throughout the period between November and April, with hot and arid summers. However, owing to their unique topography, Hellenic territories have a significant variety of microclimates. Moreover, in western Greece (Region of Epirus), Pindus starts from north to south and has a wet climate with maritime features. SPI is a useful tool, and its importance can be noted in its clarity and power to recognize the severity, duration, and extent of a drought phenomenon. In addition, an alert drought warning system may be combined with contingency planning and water resource planning. In this context, the study area, as it often faces devastating drought damage and impacts, offers a very suitable opportunity for this application. The proposed methodology studies the SPI calculation for all Hellenic territories, and it was evaluated using precipitation time-series data. The selected calibrated SPI application covers the period 1981–2010 using data from 33 precipitation stations and time scales of 6 and 12 months. The SPI is calculated using software developed by the DMCSEE Project. Then, the spatial transformation of the SPI outputs was achieved using geostatistical methods using geographical information systems. Based on the index results, the drought years were 1989–90, 1992–93, 2000, and 2007–08 with the most severe event, both in duration and intensity, were in 1989–90. The SPI results underline its potential in a drought warning system and forecasting attempt as part of a sustainable drought contingency planning effort.
... Due to its mountainous nature, Greece presents elevation differences, forming surfaces with steep slopes within a large part of the country. In particular, gradients exceeding 10% appear to cover 50% of the total area (Karavitis et al. 2014;Tsesmelis 2017;Tsesmelis et al. 2019). Strong gradients cause intense surface discharges of rainwater and severe erosion of soils wherever there is insufficient plant cover. ...
The bioclimatic design of buildings is an urgent need that begins with the acceptance of the facts of the reckless use of energy resources, the destruction of the environment and the deterioration of the quality of life of animals and humans and continues with the realization that this is a socio-political rather than a technical issue which requires mainly a change of mentality and a redefinition of the social priorities and goals of humanity. Therefore, today's society demands the environmental awareness of all citizens and the bioclimatic
architectural training of the engineers of the future. To date, ignorance of the goals and benefits of climate-based construction, academic inaction, and rigid curricula in educational institutions, combined with limited expertise, non-social compliance, and a lack of inspiring standards have led to unsustainable ways life and a future doubtful for humanity. The purpose of this research using structured questionnaires is to investigate the knowledge of professionals in the field of building construction in Greece on bioclimatic design and the causes of the lack of environmental awareness of Greek citizens until recently, which led to a building stock with small number of bioclimatic buildings.
Keywords: Bioclimatic design, sustainability, engineering education, environmental
education.
